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Do you have any stats on your CL trading you write about?
Longer-term?
500+ trades or what you consider statistically significant?
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You work off of fixed-time interval charts--never met a trader (except 1 or 2 lot) that wins more than 90% of their trading days on any particular instrument of choice.
I had 2 consecutive losing days this week (Wed/Thur). Been over 92 trading days since I had 1%+ each day 'on margin' consecutive losing days. I trade 6E from 7am up to 8:50am est and CL from 9am up to 10am est and NQ from 10am up to 10:58am est.
I use volume charts.
You are a consistent pimp! You must be pretty satisfied with being one of the few that took Al Brooks stuff and made it work for you, eh?
I recall working with only 2 other traders that each had their own 'efficient/unique' trading approach (1 or 2 lots in various markets) and just hit singles/doubles and sometime triples nearly every damned day.
Fwiw--you are trading the absolute correct market to make ticks in--big waves in CL since '04 on a daily basis.
I get very nice signals on longer-term timeframes (risk over 28cents--that is my limit) for +.75 up to $1.25 targets; however I am more like the following quote I posted late last year on the forum. I trade (for me) size on shorter time frames in liquid/volatile/a.m.-oriented markets.
"I really do identify with the sneaky raccoon; I nibble on several markets everyday--never monogamous to any particular timeframe (I use alot of discipline lately and watch 4-5 timeframes intraday in each market), though fast volume charts seem to be my preference lately."
Private Banker commented on my chart, and his insight helped me significantly. he helped me to look at volume on the 5 minute where price is accepted or rejected, which gave me greater insight into price action.
His post to me also helped me to build my strategy to incorporate more of the trend, or countertrend.
Therfore, my statistics are largerly based on the approach from that date.
I look at individual bars on the 5 minute, but more importantly, I remember how they paint. I beleive this is what Al Brooks talks about when he says each individual bar is a trading range. 2 bars may look exactly the same on completion, but how they arrived at that final shape can give an indication how the next bar will develop. A bar that paints down and then up and closes is different from one that paints up, down, up, down, and up again to close.
253 trades
72.92% ratio
184 winners (Winners also include BE or scatch trades, so not sure how this affects numbers)
64 losers
average of 5.88 trades per day
Average win to average loss 1.05
Profit factor 2.79
The last 3 weeks have been my best weeks ever. I have begun using more MP in my trading and it seems to be helping with my entries and exits, but I have little experience with it thus far. I am still working on it to enhance my trading.
I sit down with the expectation that I will be profitable over time, and that I will only take what the market is going to give me that session. I try to maintain my objectivity throughtout the session.
I also keep my risk of 1% to 2 % of my account. My SL is generally 15 ticks, but I will go slightly higher if I feel it is warranted.
I beleive risk and money management are vital to successful trading.
You have been a considerable help. Your real world investment experience on the wealth management side really struck a chord with me. Many of your insights I have adapted and have found to be beneficial.
Panda Warrior has also been a big help. His suggestions when I was first starting out in CL (some months back) was just the right encouragement at the right time. If it wasn't for him, I think I would still be scratching my head over the ES. He taught me that the instrument has to match your temperament as a trader.
Big Mike in addition. For the forum, of course, but also for his timely suggestions and for arranging the Webinars that I have found very useful. To purchase all this information of the shelf even to try it out would be a monumental task.
Was on the FT21 webinar on Saturday afternoon, and it was the best one yet.
It is a webinar that I will go back to again. Particularily liked the homework that FT does. A consistent aproach, from macro to micro, for every trading session. I do the same thing myself, but not nearly as regimented. He must be a pilot, because of the flying analogies and because of the steps he takes to prepare for the trading day is like preparing for a flight.
Pilots are meticulous in their preparation for a flight, at least the good ones are. They all have a set routine on how to check over an aircraft. Its called the walk around, visually inspect the aircraft, to insure that all the exterior bits are in place. Kick the tires, check the fuel, wiggle the prop. Why? Because you cant just pull over once you are airborn, so you better make sure while you are on the ground, and take you time, because it could mean your life.
"I would rather be on the ground, wishing i was flying, than in the air flying, wishing i was on the ground."
So today, in preparing for the day, i looked over prices for last week, and areas where I think there could be support or resistance. Then i looked at prices overnight.
Support after the first hour looked to be 102 to 102.20. So I am thinking long all day. Did not take a short trade today.
Worked out pretty well.
7 trades.
+67 ticks.
Holding my trades longer these days, and because of my growing understanding of market profile, i am gaining confidence, particularily with my entries, and training myself to be more disciplined through the trade.
Not too long ago, i waited for "confirmation" before i would enter a trade, but as often as not, doing so would be detrimental.
Was ready to go before the open, and right at the open, should have entered long. I thought about it, but after it started to move, I realized i should have gotten in at 103.20.
Missed that entry, and I had to let it go, as well as the second chance, which was much harder to see.
Got in on the pull back for 15 ticks, but that was it.
After another leg down I got long again, which resulted in me giving everything back from the first trade.
Trade 3 was the move I expected higher. Fortunate to get my 20 ticks before it pulled back.
Trade 4 was BE. Was green, but I moved my stop to BE, and got taken out. From there on, felt that 103.80 was rositance and was lookung to see a retracement, back to 102.70-102.20.
First short failed. I tightened my stop to -10. Would have been safe if i had left my stop above 103.80. that was another mistake. Would have survived.
Shorted my last trade at 103.45. Target of 103.20. was in that trade for over an hour.
6 trades.
Missed the long at the open. and I tighten my stop that would have survicved. Ah, well, live and learn
Read them interesting information. I use a 5 minute chart, but I guess the analysis works on every time frame. the only problem i have with the volume is that it counts on close of the bar, so you may find yourself behind the trade.
Volume ladders allow a trader to get inside the bar, to see volume in a graphical way which is easier to digest than trying to recognise and remember order flow in a time and price box. At least thats the way its been explained to me.
I think the best way I have seen is Market profile, where time, price and volume are used to build a market context and to help a trader to recognise and anticipate the next logical migration of price.
Price rises when buyers > than sellers at a specific price. The best indication is an increase in volume. In its simplist form, it is an auction process. Just like Barret Jackson when they sell cars on the speed network. The auction price of the car will be dependent on its percieved value to the participants in the auction. More buyers making bids, price rises, till it hits a point where there is one bidder left, and he has the winning bid. A reverse auction would be the same for sellers.
The key is to get the data and interpret. Getting the data is simple, interpreting the data so that one can act to take advantage of the price discrepancy is hard.
I dont trade the market. I trade my view of the market.
And how does one deal with news? A couple of weeks back, I was in a trade when the DOE report came out. made a pile of ticks. But in hindsight, it really could have killed me. So now, I am staying away from the report. Many better traders than me gave me that advise, so, who am I to argue?
Yesterdays close on the CL was 103.61. Yestrdays high...104.10, within a few minutes of the open. Overnight, price worked its way up to 104.40 level on relatively thin volume, and a few minutes befoer the open, selling pressure that drove price down. Around 100 ticks. Basically unwound the gains over night in a couple of minutes. I could hear the stops being run.
Too far too fast for a news day, so a long at 103.39 gets me 26 ticks.
No more trades till after the news, as range got real tight. Almost the width of my trend bar.
Price driven down again after the DOE report, but I still think 103.60, but, too much volume and momentum and I getted a full stop out.
The pause at 103.18 had me go long and I got another 18 ticks before the pull back got me.
The trade of the day was my last trade.
12.45 long at 103.44. Stop hit at 103.29 for -15 ticks.
I looked at 103.16 as the LOD and that we might test it, but I didnt beleive we were going lower. Entry was 103.25, my sl was 103.10, and it never looked back. Ran all the way up for +59.
Trail stop taken out on the PB at 103.84. Ah well, thats the way it goes sometime. As long as I come out ahead is all.
5 trades.
26-15+18-15+59 = +73
I am ok with that For the want of a single tick, it would have been almost double that number.
