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This is good advise, so I will follow it...
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This is good advise, so I will follow it...

  #71 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
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08.12.2011

Back to the old grind.

Trade with a specific goal, take only the very best trades (Institutional grade, wahtever that means to you), recognise that the very best setups will only present themselves a few times every session, andyou have to be prpared to recognise them based on your tarding strategy.

So score card.

5 trades, no negative trades...BUT...one trade wsa really a mistke, but i was able to get out break even. in that case, was it really a mistake.

Let me reason on this for a moment. Can a profitable trade be a loser. Yes, because you made a profit, but not because of your strategy.

The opoetie si also true. but if one is always trading like that, one will have to lose. You will ahve to meltdown. The key is to trade with confidence and in a relaxed state, or one annot possibly succeed.

Cetainly was a Down Trend Day. ANd big moves down, a little unerving grab hold of the bus as it is going by. In northen Canada, in the winter, as kids we used to grab on the bunper of busses and slide on our snow boots over the snow covered streets. It was fun, but also pertty fightening at the same time. A combination of exhilaration and terror.

to my trades, only traded the reversals as i was a little unnerved of the down trnd. Looking for a swing to high so that I could grab a bull reversal. was agressive with my stops, as I didnt want to get trapped.
5 trades

+9+7+7+3+1=+27

All in all I feel pretty good today.

Attached Thumbnails
This is good advise, so I will follow it...-cl-01-12-5-min-12_8_2011.jpg  
 
  #72 (permalink)
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09.12.2011

What is the best time to trade the CL? I startt at around 7:45 most days, unless I have had a long day, then I start 1/2 later at 8:15. Really dosnt seem to make much of a difference. I dont look at the news, at all. Is this a newbie mistake? In fact, I read teh news, i only get upset.

I like the 7 habits of Highly Effective People.

1. Be Proactive. get motivated...do something

2. Start with the end in mind. have a plan, a blueprint ot follow

3. First things first. start it...get going, stop dreaming, do...make a list, do the very first thing on it.

Number 1 on the list. Be confident. Positive self talk. "I will do this. I cannot be discouraged...etc.,. the individual that dosnt give up, cannot be beat. When the going gets tough, the tough get going."

I like this show on cable called Ice Pilots about Buffalo Airways that flies these old planes in Northen Canada. Only commercial airline in North America still flying a DC3. The deliver to communities far north, land in these really remote places, delivering everything from fuel to machine parts to food. Anyway, those pilots and employees have to be the toughest , most resourceful guys I have ever seen. Of course its TV, but still, they really have to love what they are doing to do that. Trading, by comparison, from the warmth of my home office, is like a day at the beach by comparison.

Made 13 trades on the CL today.

-9+10-11+8+9+2+2+2-16+13+11+14=+35

Trades 7-9 Hit my tightened stop once I was BE....3 Times in a row. This led me to beleive that market was poised to continue its bull trend. However, it pulled back to hit my stop at -16 ticks. My stop at 97.67 was right at the low of the candle, and had it not touched, I would have had a successful trade.

DB at 97.40 was the right call. Strong bull move to the EMA. Likely the best trade of the day. I believe I recognised it early enough to make a few profitable trades.

Dont really have much to talk about. I only have a few setups that I trade, but they are not always black and white. There is a lot of grey, and so some of the trades turn out poorly. But there are just enough good ones to keep me insterested and wanting to strive to improve. Is trading like golf, where the one good hole, or shot, keeps you coming back?

I only trade in the morning, before noon. Have other pressing matters to deal with in the afternoon. I still have a business to run. It is 6 figures, but was a double that before 2008. but the hassles are double. in some respects i feel like Big Mike. 6 figure income, but really not happy with the job. After all, 20 ticks a day on the CL on 20 contracts on 200 trading days a year is double the best year I had at my real job. I dont need that much, but i know lots of people that that kinda money would help.

There are no shortcuts. I have not yet busted a futures account, but I have busted other accounts. Lost over 400000 in one investment. Money that wasnt all mine.

In fact, when I think back over the years, there have been a few bad deals. Hotel shopping center in Kitchener, hotel conference center in London, medical building in Toronto, condo projects in Toronto, Calgary, Florida. Adds up into the millions. Not all my money, of course, but it may as well been. I took a lot of heat for it, despite the fact that they were all named projects.

Of course, there have been winners too. But why are they not the ones that i think of first? its because people hate to lose more than they like to win. Like trading...you puzzle over and dissect your losers, and you should place equal or more study on winners.

A new rule " I am unafraid to trade because the joy of winning is far more satisfying than the pain of losing!"

V

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  #73 (permalink)
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12.12.2011


Tough day today.

Computer connection was down this morning till 9:300 EST. Late start to my morning. PLayed 3 short gigs this weekend rythym guiatr for my daughter, and I caught a cold. Coughing my eyeballs out of my head.

It was a tough slug on the CL today. Still managed 11 trades off the 5 minute chart.

Tight trading range, so looking for small trends. Moving my stop to BE aggressively.

11 trades this morning.

Had 1 loser. Closed the trade out at -5 ticks as my entry was poor, and the market moved against me immediately.

+46 ticks on the day.

Beleive i made a couple of bad trades that turned out ok. hard to argue when you still turn a profit. But it was a case of bad entry good trade. Striving for good entry and exits always.

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  #74 (permalink)
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VinceVirgil View Post
I dont look at the news, at all. Is this a newbie mistake?

I'd recommend putting the weeky oil report on your radar, if not already. Wed 10:30 ET
2011 Economic Calendar

 
  #75 (permalink)
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13.12.2011 and 14.12.2011

OK 2 days in 1 here had a computer problem that took time to solve and had a busy afternoon, as I had to see my lawyer. Have an Aunt that has been a Certificate of Incapacity issued on her behalf, so now her care and assets need a substitute guardian. Have to apply through a lawyer to ahve that process moved along, and will cost between 4 and 6 thousand. My Aunt had a power of Attorney set up to prevent this from happening, however, she changed her Will and her POA 14 months ago, while she was likely suffering from dementia. Of course the new lawyer went ahead and made the changes, collected his fee for doing so. And now we are left to undue it all, because now she is under 24 hour supervised care. nice facility, but she really dosnt understand where she is. She can never again live on her own independently. She has a fairly large estate, and she changed her will to leave it to someone she met less that 18 months ago. Keep in mind this woman is in her 70's. The person she has named in the will realizes her state of mind at the time, and has reliquished all claim to her money. Honourable thing for him to do.

Made a couple of big mistakes yesterday, the biggest one being is that I moved my SL, in the beleif that the price was going to rbound. Looking back on it, it was nothing more than a guess, and even though i was wrong, I refused to beleive I had made a mistake.

I was ahead 16 ticks on the day after 6 trades. but then took a 31 tick loss. Was very fooloish mistake.

after regrouping, made 2 more trades, for a total of 8 trades. Made up for it in the next 2 trades, but only barely to end up +5 on the day.

I beleive that I got overconfident, as I was profitable for 6 days in a row. That was in the back of my mind as I was trading. Also, I let myself rush the trades, because I had things to do, and I was rushing instead of exersizing patience and discipline.

14.12.2011

have a cold today. Ah, likely stress related. family home work...need a vacation. Strap on the boards and go skiing in Colorado.

Felt like taking the day off from staring at the screen today. Kinda distracted.

More connection problems, i wonder if its my fireall. Using the CQG through Amp, and the last few days, i am having connection problems on startup. Amp says aok their end, so It may be my comp. Going to take it in have someone go over it.

Having trouble focusing, as if I am getting stale in my activities. need to change something, jsut a small change, nothing to upset the apple cart. Going to reviw what i am doing, and come up with a more concrete plan to how i want to trade, and where i want to lead my trading activity. If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.

So I am going to noodle over my goals and such, make them more concrete as opposed to general. Right now, they are to loose. Need to firm them up.

-16 ticks on 12 trades. Should have wiped out the day, as I felt off all morning. DONT TRADE WHEN YOU ARE SICK. Thats has to be a rule.

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  #76 (permalink)
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15.12.2011

Still trading the CL on the 5 minute chart, only with price action and a 20EMA. I like the simplicity of it, suits me, as I dont want to have over think my enties. tried other time frames, specifically shorter, but they proved to be too jumpy for me personally.

Still combating this cold, and did not sleep well last night. Didnt get ready till almost 9:00 est.

Afther the big 31 tick loss of Tuesday, and depressed pricing of CL yeasterday, I was going determined to be a little more cautious today.

First trade...hit my stop. today i am not going to move my stop once I set it at the signal bar if it moves against me. Going to take my lumps early for a poor trade, not wait around till I get hammered.

-8 on the firtst trade.

Not a good start. but then i recovered well over the next hour. 5 more trades all profitable.

No home runs, but as long as i stay in the black.

+12....biggest one of the day. +7 +7 +6 +4

+ 28. thats ok with me. Leave my desk feeling good, and not wanting to overtrade.

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  #77 (permalink)
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20.12.2011

No serious trading yesterday. Traded a new longer setup using a longer chart for setup for confirmation off a daily chart and a 120 minute chart. It was a horror show, felt like I was completely out of my element. Its one thing to push out of ones comfort zone, but I ventured too far.

Reviewed some of Van Tharp Super Traders then last couple of days. He really has some very fine suggeestions, and he is very encouraging. In fact, his statements about mutual fund managers not being interested in position sizing strategies, or working on the phsycological aspect of trading resonates with me. I have met many fund managerrs over the years, and the very few good ones really have a traders mentality. However, they are always managing IPO, Trust Units or Precious Metals. And the individual traders, who works on what Van Tharp suggests, has a significant advantage over fund managers.

Been trading the CL for around 5 weeks now. 5 minute chart, using the EMA 20. Limiting oneself to the very best trades is a difficult task, and I feel I am making some progress in that area. If I can take 5 to 10 good setups, and not get greedy, or over trade and limiting bad entries, it is possible to win more often than loose.

This morning has become fairly typical, except for 1 exceptional trade.

My plan was to look for an up trend day in then CL. Looking over the last few sessions, I beleive we are overdue for a rize in the CL, as the last 4 trading sessions are decidedly down.

6 trades.

1. +6 Early entry off the EMA. Mover stop agressively. + 6 ticks.

2. Off same setup, re-entered trade anticipating a strong. Stopped out at -8. Too tight on the stop as it turned out.

3. Again re-entered the trade, this time moved for +13 ticks

4. Down 9 ticks. Did not exibit patience on that trade. Stopped out.

5. +12 ticks. Same reasoning as previous move.

6. Big trade of session. Added to my position, as I expected a strong bull move, and was able to capture 35 ticks.

Plus 49 ticks on the day. would be nice to do that every day, like punching a time clock.

Attached Thumbnails
This is good advise, so I will follow it...-cl-02-12-5-min-12_20_2011.jpg  
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  #78 (permalink)
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20.12.2011

Alright, looking over my records for the last 12 days I have been trading the CL.

OUt of the 12 seesions, I had 2 loosing sessions for -8 and for -16 ticks.

Average time for trading was 3.0 hours each session, staring at 7:30 EST to 10:30 EST.

Total gain in ticks is 282. That averages out at 24 ticks per session, or 8 ticks per hour.

There was many more hours spent of reading and reviewing.

i wish I was better at Excel. Would really like a simple template to track all my trades in a simple format, maybe import imformation from Ninja Tader as oppossed to hand writing it.

Would like to examine each trade more closely, for MAE and MFE. Notice I have been having my stop hit on a nuiumber of occasssions, only to see the trade head to positive territory almost immediately. Do I need to adjust it? After all, in looking over the last weeks, my SL wasnt hit that often, around 15% of the time.

Thats the interesting thing about trading. Virtually everything about it is about your personal style. And profitability. I have seen many sites on teh web promising that anyone can become a successful trader by buying this indicator, or by sitting in that chatroom, or learning from this or that expert. however, in order to be a successful trader, you have to be someone who does things their own way, keeping your own council, but also willing to accept new concepts if it helps with your own mindset.

What do i beleive are most important in trading.

1. Psychology of trading. Break through your own barriers to success.

2. Trading trading strategy dsigend to fit your personality and needs.

3. Risk and money management.

Most traders focus on strategies alone, it seems to me. It seems like a mistake to do that, because every book or artical i have looked at fosuses on the other areas as equally important.

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  #79 (permalink)
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21.12.2011

Thinking about SL and where to place them. I have been using a stop at 8-9 ticks usually with a 17 tick target, but it really is dependent on price action. I usually place it 1 tick below my signal bar, then move it to 8-9 ticks 80 % of the time, then move to BE + 1.

I like to further tighten my stop to around 60-80 percent of my target, 10-12 ticks. Based on what I have been doing, this seems reasonable. Tried a few different methods on market replay with various time periods, but i cant seem to get better consitancy for bigger moves. For me, I am satified if I can net 8-12 ticks a trade, and gain 30 - 50 ticks a day. Seems like a nice round number.

Every time I see the number 50, it reminds me of the scene in Cool Hand Luke when he bets he can eat 50 eggs in 1 hour.

Cool Hand Luke - No man can eat 50 eggs scene. - YouTube

10 trades

+8+8-9+11+2+15+21+3-9+11=+61

The 7 trade hit my target in blink for the 21 ticks.

It seems that 8 to 12 trades is really the limit for me going over the last few weeks. I have taken more trades, but it always seem that over 10 I get a larger amount of loosers. On average, 3 out of 10 trades will not develop, and 2 others get stopped at around break even. I get my full target 1 every 2 sessions, and the other trades are around 8 to 12 ticks.


Would like to build solid confident consistency before i add any more setups. Also, I need to get past the embarrasment of my charts. I use a 5 minute with a EMA20. I have Brooks Bars and current day and week. it just seems so sparse, when I see all the beautiful works of art charts out there.

V

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  #80 (permalink)
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VinceVirgil View Post
Thinking about SL and where to place them. I have been using a stop at 8-9 ticks usually with a 17 tick target, but it really is dependent on price action. I usually place it 1 tick below my signal bar, then move it to 8-9 ticks 80 % of the time, then move to BE + 1.

I like to further tighten my stop to around 60-80 percent of my target, 10-12 ticks. Based on what I have been doing, this seems reasonable. Tried a few different methods on market replay with various time periods, but i cant seem to get better consitancy for bigger moves. For me, I am satified if I can net 8-12 ticks a trade, and gain 30 - 50 ticks a day. Seems like a nice round number.

Every time I see the number 50, it reminds me of the scene in Cool Hand Luke when he bets he can eat 50 eggs in 1 hour.

Cool Hand Luke - No man can eat 50 eggs scene. - YouTube

10 trades

+8+8-9+11+2+15+21+3-9+11=+61

The 7 trade hit my target in blink for the 21 ticks.

It seems that 8 to 12 trades is really the limit for me going over the last few weeks. I have taken more trades, but it always seem that over 10 I get a larger amount of loosers. On average, 3 out of 10 trades will not develop, and 2 others get stopped at around break even. I get my full target 1 every 2 sessions, and the other trades are around 8 to 12 ticks.


Would like to build solid confident consistency before i add any more setups. Also, I need to get past the embarrasment of my charts. I use a 5 minute with a EMA20. I have Brooks Bars and current day and week. it just seems so sparse, when I see all the beautiful works of art charts out there.

V

These numbers will give you greater confidence to trade what you see. And forget about how the charts look, there are some beautiful ones out there but most are sim. Seems the profitable traders use charts that are the picture of simplicity. Almost minimalist in nature. Its something I am striving for. I'd like a totally naked chart but dont think thats gonna happen any time soon. To be blunt, charts that make you money are the most beautiful there are, regardless of what color they are.......

I too find that over ten trades, I start to see the law of diminishing returns set in. For me I think its decision fatigue.

I like your numbers, keep it up and you'll be hitting that 50 ticks a day in no time.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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