Took the day off from the ES. It was frustrating me to no end last 2 days.
So, decided on trading the CL. I bailed on it afew weeks ago because it was moving too fast, and I was trading both the ES and the CL, and I was doing too much. So I figured I would go strickly ES because of the tempo, and to refine entry and exits, and by and large, it was reasonably profitable.
But looking over my PnL, most of my gains were happening on less than 10% of my trades. Not that my strategy is bad, but that movements were taking so long to develop. Too hands on. I can make more money at my day job than I did trading, these last 2 months. The point is, i want trading to replace my day job, eventually.
So, first day on the CL in a while....did a couple of trades yesterday to afiliarize myself with it again.
Some day to pick. 200 ticks at 8:57...not a day to be short.
Burt I was, at first. Recognized the run early, captured 28 ticks. Moved my target from 21 but it moved too fast for me..
Trade 4...captured another 18 ticks. Agained moved my target, and trailed the stop manually.
Trade 5 Loser -9 Ticks got taken out
Trade 6 9:00:38 +19 Ticks
Trade 7 9:34:19 +22 Target was 16, butb I moved it up because of the momentum. came back, but it was above my target.
Trade 2 was a loser. Down 2 ticks on that. My stop was 2 tick below my entry, and it got hit, not immediately, but eventually. Thought it was developing at 7:53:50. Was a litttle early...but that lead to the nice move on trade 3.
Kinda unreal. Bested my good days on the ES by a big margin, with less screen time and way less anxiety. Should have know...Had some great days on the CL before, but I found the big gains too intimidating. How can someone make a mid 6 or even 7 figure income trading 2 1/2 hours a day. Thats pro athlete money. NHL pro.
Anyway, gonna try some more tommorrow.
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The nice thing here is there is no chance of a career ending injury and then having to enter the workforce with no real training for anything else.
Depending on the time frame you are trading, expect on "normal" days to see 20-50 tick swings. Just decide in advance what portion of that you would expect to CONSERVATIVELY capture and go for it. You can get more if you are willing to sit through pull backs as CL works its way toward its 200-300 tick ranges. I'm not so I scalp but I follow a trader that routinely gets 50-100 ticks a day on CL with one to two contracts and normally one to three trades per day. He trades the entire session though and I don't want to do that. 20-50 a day is enough for me.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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OK, switching to CL for a while... It just is more interesting to me.
So today, I exhibited more discipline than I have in some time, just never realized it. I was staring at the ES for so long, waiting for patterns to develop, that I found myself taking ill advised trades. I was overtrading.
On the CL today.
8 trades today.
Once I was in a profitable position, I moved my stop to break even. But the moves were big enough to reward me when I was right. Turns out, if I hadnt tightened to break even so quickly, would have done much better.
I cannot beleive it has only been less than 3 months. Reread my journal, and I am astounded at some of my observations, of only a couple of weeks ago. I am beggining to understand why most successful traders say that this is the hardest thing they have ever done. And, at the same time, the most rewarding.
Certainly, there is the financial rewards. Takes money to make money, so one has to be well capitalized. I mean, if you have 2500 dollar acount, one is going to have a very hard time making it generate a living wage yearly. One mistake and its gone.
One thing is for sure. Trading takes an astonishing amount of self discipline. Without it, one cannot be successful. And yet, it also talkes a flexible mind, to be open to new ideas, and the mental acuity to act without hesitaion, and to be comfortable.
In the insurance business, there is a concept of level of comfort, loosely based on the Peter Principle. The Peter Priciple states that an individual will rize to the level of his incompetency, and no further. in insureance, it is asking for the check. This is a few years old, but the number insurance premium dollars was 5000.00. That is the figure that both the insuance agent and the client saw a certain invisible line. (the number may be higher now) More than 5000, the the client seemed to need further confirmation what he was doing is the right thing, so that was the level the accountant, the lawyer, the comptroller...the other advisors would get involved. And, most likely, the other advisors know their job...its to say no, otherwize, they wouldnt get involved. Why no? Because, if the transaction turns out well, they get no acknowledgemnet or benefit. If it turns out badly, well, they get the blame. No upside...only downside.
Successful traders are not afraid to ask for the check, regardless of the size. Thats why they think in terms of points and not in terms of dollars. And, they are not greedy. They trade because they love their independence.
They are true entrpeneurs. They create their rules, and then they follow them. If it dosnt work out, they accept responsibilty for it, and move on, seeking to improve. They have no time to suffer fools. They share their knowledge because it enriches them, helps them to becoame a better person.
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Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
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No trades today, just observing the price movements in the CL. Just watching the action, like watching the tide roll away. Very interesting, Instead of looking for an entry, just looking for a place I might enter, and might exit. It feels a little little like role playing, faking it till you make it.
I dont watch the news. IN fact, because I am in the investment buisiness on the retail side currently, I treat all investment news like I heard it described to me. Investment Pornography. Might get me a little juiced, but, in the end, dosnt do anything for me, because , it isnt real. Real is taking your profit out of your account, and buying goods or services.
2006, oil is around 75 dollars a barrel, and we have a meeting with the big the oil analysts at this major firm.Big firm, biggest in the world. Manage over 1.5 trillion today. You should have seen the colourful charts, glossy handouts, Power Point presentation. Got nice little pens, hats, golf shirts. Nice lunch, lobster salad...real lobster, not the pollock flavoured lobster. They tell a group of us that they are pricing their models for investment are 45 dollars barrel, adjusted for inflation, for the next 10 years. Oops. bit of a miss on that one. Maybe it will come down to 45 dollars. Still have a little more than 4 years to go.
I am not cynical, but your ideas are just as valid as the analysts at &*%$ity. I have a hundred stories like that one.
Have a good weekend.
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Its very interesting to see the differnt methods traders use. Automated, staright discretioanry, combination of the 2.
Made 12 trades on the CL this morning.
got my stop hit on 3 trades. 2 trades -8 ticks, one for -9. One trade I closed at -4. Didnt like the feel, so I closed it out manually.
Othe 8 were profitable. 2 for +10, one for +25. one for +6. The other were around breakeven trrades, but slightly positive.
Was a buit of a tough mornnig. not anxiety really, but a little unrelaxed, so I felt like I was trading a little tight. Too many things on my mind, I suppose. Daughter isnt feeling well last couple of weeks, not sure what it is. Hoping it is just a virus. It is still unsettling.
my son is having a few problems at his work. Superior gicing him a bit of a hard time, but he is the type that takes things very personally. Hasnt had the experience to develop a thicker skin.
Tried to swith to Optimus Futures from Amp, but Optimus doe not operate in Ontario. Government regus wont allow them in.
I have a reccommendation for Sweet Futures, so gonna try there.
A thanks to Panda Warrior for his excellent suggestions. And to other futures.io (formerly BMT)ers that have taken the time to comment on my journal.
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With such sloww movement, the CL kinda looked like the ES everyday.
12 trades today, but it was tough slugging again, almost a repeat of yesterday.
Happy I finished in the black, but if it hadnt been for the last 2 trades, I would have been down on the day.
One odd situation this morning. Lost my data feed, but did not have any positions open. Closed off manually, but when it reconnected, it showed I had a trade working. Then it looks as if it dissapeared into thin air...no record. Very strange.
Chart shows last few trades blown up, including my trade 8 -13 ticks error. I dont know what i was thinking, but it agian shows that onbe little drop in concentration can be very costly, and can wipe out a days profits. Multiply 1 error a week like that over the year, and thats a lot of penalty.
Very tight trading range on the CL today. Inventory report at 10:30am... Europe problems? Even Metallica...
The Wall Street Journal reports
that Metallica is shaking up its
tour schedule in reaction to the
Eurozone debt crisis.
Metallica’s long-time manager,
Cliff Burnstein, is accelerating the band’s
tour plans to avoid getting sucked into
Europe’s debt troubles. With the gloom
among investors spreading to richer countries
such as France, Burnstein is worried that the
euro will tank, making it harder for concert
promoters in the 17 countries that use the
currency to pay Metallica’s fees.
As it turns out, Metallica’s been quite active
in the F/X markets, hedging against
exchange-rate shifts, and from the looks of it,
they’ve got a pretty specific macro view.
The euro is what Burnstein fears the most.
“Over the next few years, the dollar will be
stronger and the euro weaker, and if that’s
the case, I want to take advantage of that by
playing more of these European shows now,
because they will be more profitable for us,”
he told The Journal.
Anyway, took 8 trades. Down 8 ticks for the day. It just wasn't there today, didnt have my best stuff. Have to learn how to win ugly.... Had a number of profitable days, no losses in some time.
3 unsucessfull trades. for -34 ticks.
the other 5 trades were + 26. Overly aggressive in moving my stop after I was in a profit position, that my winners dint have a chance to run. Couldnt forget the bad trades, so I was trading while looking in the review mirror, hoping not to trade to lose, rather than trading to win.
Still profitable for the week. Was marginally profitable last month, but really, working for 10 bucks an hour. Its all part of the learning curve.
Like Big Mike said..."started trading in 2007, and have been profitable since 2009, and made every mistake in the book." All profiatable traders have sinlilar stories. At least, of the few that i know
Reviewing my rules again. Its all about the psychology.
Last edited by VinceVirgil; December 7th, 2011 at 10:57 AM.
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