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This is good advise, so I will follow it...
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This is good advise, so I will follow it...

  #51 (permalink)
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VinceVirgil View Post
..

A trade has a 50% chance of being a winner or a loser. .....

Why do you believe this? Just because this event - making a trade - has two outcomes? Then you are ill-advised. What is the probability of you still being alive ten minutes after reading this? Do you really think that is 50/50?

Look up Binomial Distribution in Wikipedia.

You don't know the probability of your trade becoming a winner or not. That's one reason why people backtest or analyze their former trades to at least get an estimate for this probability.

I remember reading a research paper by a large trading house, wherein they tried to find a measure to detect successful traders early in their career. They classified their traders into two groups: Group A had a winning rate of 80% and Group B had a winning percentage of 30%. Which group represented the traders who were successful at the end of the year and why?

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  #52 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
Why do you believe this? Just because this event - making a trade - has two outcomes? Then you are ill-advised. What is the probability of you still being alive ten minutes after reading this? Do you really think that is 50/50?

Look up Binomial Distribution in Wikipedia.

You don't know the probability of your trade becoming a winner or not. That's one reason why people backtest or analyze their former trades to at least get an estimate for this probability.

I remember reading a research paper by a large trading house, wherein they tried to find a measure to detect successful traders early in their career. They classified their traders into two groups: Group A had a winning rate of 80% and Group B had a winning percentage of 30%. Which group represented the traders who were successful at the end of the year and why?

The 30%, because they had a higher R:R and the ability to hold out for their profits.

80% had to be right and took lots of profits early....

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  #53 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
Why do you believe this? Just because this event - making a trade - has two outcomes? Then you are ill-advised. What is the probability of you still being alive ten minutes after reading this? Do you really think that is 50/50?

Look up Binomial Distribution in Wikipedia.

You don't know the probability of your trade becoming a winner or not. That's one reason why people backtest or analyze their former trades to at least get an estimate for this probability.

I remember reading a research paper by a large trading house, wherein they tried to find a measure to detect successful traders early in their career. They classified their traders into two groups: Group A had a winning rate of 80% and Group B had a winning percentage of 30%. Which group represented the traders who were successful at the end of the year and why?

I only repeated the 50/50 win vs loss ratio because in absolute terms. Can a trader always trade without a loss? Every sucessfull trader I have read about has lost, at one time or another. Blow out an account, and learned from the experience.

As far as your question, the key here is the end of the year. I understand trading is less about the trade entry, it is important, and more about position size and risk management.

I would say the Group B, 30%, because they tried harder, realizing that they could not be right all the time, and if you were less than 50%, or 80% or 100%, you could still be a successfull trader.

Group A, thought all they had to do was be right 80% of the time, and thats it.

Was I right?

 
  #54 (permalink)
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VinceVirgil View Post
..

Was I right?

Almost... The answer is a bit too formal.

Group A grabbed for every little profit they could get and were killed by letting their losers grow. Group B tried to enter a trade and when it did not look/feel/whatever right exited with a small loss, keeping their losses small. But they rode their winners.

It does not imply that you need a low winning rate to be profitable - you may be successful (profitable within your chosen time interval) with 80% (or more) winners. It is a statistical view of the old saying "Cut your losses short and let your profits grow".

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  #55 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
Almost... The answer is a bit too formal.

Group A grabbed for every little profit they could get and were killed by letting their losers grow. Group B tried to enter a trade and when it did not look/feel/whatever right exited with a small loss, keeping their losses small. But they rode their winners.

It does not imply that you need a low winning rate to be profitable - you may be successful (profitable within your chosen time interval) with 80% (or more) winners. It is a statistical view of the old saying "Cut your losses short and let your profits grow".

The simple solution is always best! Why overcomplicate things?

 
  #56 (permalink)
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I feel better for Group A. Apart from other intrinsic detail of system, 80% win might produce distributet profit as oppose to accumulated profit of 30% win of Group B.

Harvest The Moon
Nest The Market
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  #57 (permalink)
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devdas View Post
I feel better for Group A. Apart from other intrinsic detail of system, 80% win might produce distributet profit as oppose to accumulated profit of 30% win of Group B.

The answer could be ... they were both successful, or both unsucessfull. Simply put, any answer we state may, or may not be the correct answer.

Markets are inefficient, therefore traders manage those inefficiencies for profit.

 
  #58 (permalink)
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OK a little humour today...

We Are the One Per Cent, as written by The New Yorker’s John Kenney…
We, too, have mobilized.
We come from near and far, by any means necessary, some on private jets, others on extremely large private jets.
But you will not find us sleeping in a park and waiting in line at a Burger King to urinate. Have you heard of Mystique? Because that’s where we have mobilized. Don’t bother trying to Google Earth us, though, because we have proprietary military software that prevents you from doing so.
Our numbers may be smaller than those demonstrating in New York and other cities, but we are still a movement, coalesced around a cause, sleeping two and sometimes three people to a villa.
Perhaps you are wondering what our cause is. Perhaps you’re wondering why we, the richest people on the planet, have come together. Perhaps you’re curious whether what we’re undertaking couldn’t technically be called a vacation. These are all good questions.
We’re angry. We’re angry at something we’re calling “imagined frustration.” By this we mean that, except for Congress, the White House, banks, major lobbyists, and the editorial boards of Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, no one is listening to us. And we’re tired of it.
You claim to know something about us. You think we are rich beyond comprehension, that we can do anything we please at any time, go anywhere we want at a moment’s notice, wander the earth in a state of constant bliss, enjoying abundant and fabulous sex. Perhaps you do know us.
There are those in the more liberal press who have questioned whether the wealthiest one per cent truly understand how difficult life is for so many Americans right now, and to that we would say, “Oh, look, someone just brought in lobster and a Bollinger Grande Année.”
Except for money and the almost unnatural flawlessness of my skin, we are no different, you and I. I don’t know who you are or what you look like or how much money you have in the bank. Nor does it matter. Because we’re just men. Unless you are a woman. Or a child. Or a pony. But ponies don’t read magazines, do they? Unless they’re precocious ponies, like Mister Ed. And he wasn’t real. But I think you get my point.
And that is: we are the same, except for the coarseness of the skin on your elbows. Do you know that feeling, upon waking at 4 A.M., heart racing, your mind looking twenty, thirty years down the road, wondering how you are going to make ends meet? Worrying about what would happen if you lost your job, asking yourself how you’re going to pay for your kids’ college or retire? Well, I don’t. But I read a story about it once and remember thinking, I’m so glad that’s not me.
What do we want?
Here is our manifesto, still very much a work in progress, as it’s cocktail hour and several of our protesters are out at the pool:
– All wealth should be shared equally among the wealthy.
– Eradicate poverty. (Note: Maybe a clearer way to say this would be “Eradicate the poor.” Need to discuss.)
– End business as usual. (Note: Several members like the sound of this, but they don’t know what it means. A suggestion has been made to add the word “hours” after “business.”)
– Implement a rule whereby the public cannot look at us and must keep a distance of at least twenty feet at all times.
Yes, I have more things – more homes and cars and planes and art and underground passages and satellites and private militias and a person whose only job is to grow hair that is genetically identical to my own. But when you take off your pants and I take off my pants and we stand facing each other as naked as the day we were born, except for socks, all I would ask is that you feel my skin and tell me it’s not the softest skin you’ve ever felt on a man. And also realize that we are the same, except for the fact that I have four submarines.

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  #59 (permalink)
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28.11.2011

This ia a few days in in this post.

Friday trades. Was up 13 Ticks, as was day after US Thanksgiving. Did surprizingly well out off the hop. 13 trades in total. was up 13 ticks.
4 unfortunate trades coost me 27 ticks, as my stop was set at 8 ticks. Hit my full stop 2 times. Never had a gain more than 7 ticks. Need to examine the volatility more closely. Mybe a tighter stop on days like this?

Monday November 28

7 trades thus far. 2 winners, 5 losers. Still ahead 1 tick. Still, losses are nibling away my gains. Nothing ruins my day m,ore than losses. But, they are a fact of life.

Every day, I am gaining confidence and getting more comfortable. Still working on me, the most important part of trading.

 
  #60 (permalink)
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29.11.2011


Not a good day. had to take my daughter to the Emergency last night. Bit of a stomach virus, but because our family doctor retired a couple months ago, and because of a shortage of family physicians in this part of the city, had to go to emergency. Low prioroty, but was in there from 6:30 to midnight....fun way to spend an evening.

So, on to trading stuff. Maybe its my mind set, but I felt as if nothing i could do was right today. Its a tight traduing range day on the ES, tough slogging. Maybe I should have packed it in.

Anyway, only trading a single contrct.

13 trades...was up 9 ticks after 6 trades. Tighten stops after was in a profit, and kept getting pull backs hitting my stops.

next 5 trades....losers. Agints my own rule....after a loss...wait 15 minutes to trade again, and wait for clarity.

Then...a winning trade. Phew....+6 ticks.

Down 11 ticks on the day. Last 2 days have been brutal. Have i learned anything form the experience?

Yes...follow the 15 minute rule...stop overtrading.

Winners totaled 17 ticks...losers, well -28 ticks.

This has got to be one of the most frustrating days I have had in a while.

Have to noodle today over a bit more.


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