Have finished my short experimenrt with the CL. I wasnt losing, in fact I was doing quite well. but I was trading with a sense of forboding. Too much anxiety, not comfortable with it. So i went back to the ES and the 6E in the evening.
Back to the ES today. i have been following Al Brooks method, and have tried to spot the setups, realtime, to which he refers. Been working on patience, waiting for the correct setup etc. Getting better at it, but still messing up in a couple of places.
Trade 1 +1 tick 7:58 AM
Tighten stop after I was up 4 ticks, then it pulled back and hit my stop at juts a tick over my entry. Too bad, the move had some legs.
Shorted at 1242.50 ...Ran down to 1239.25. Was really a trend reversal after a double top on the daily high to the EMA. As long as I come oput ahead is all.
Trade 2 +4 ticks 8:21
Long at 1241.50
Trade 3 +7 ticks 8:29
Long at 1242.50
Tested the daily high before it pulled back on a single 5 minute candle.
Had to take care of some things this morning, so I didnt get back till 12.30 EST
Trade 4 +9 ticks 12:53
thought it was going to be a bull trend day, but what a difference a couple hours makes.
Short at 1235.50
Trade 5 +4 ticks at 1241.50
Trade 6 and 7 1:26 and 1:36 -11 ticks on 2 trades
2 trades that hit my stop....looked to be a short setup
Not happy...however they looked to be correct, despite the fact that they hit my stop
Trade 8 1:45 still the same trend. +5 ticks
Total 10 ticks on the day..the 2 failed trades cost me 11 ticks.
Margins in this business are razor thin.
The following 2 users say Thank You to VinceVirgil for this post:
Traded ES. Some winners, some losers, but the winners were way better than losers.
Tighten stops where my setups were not unfolding as anticipated, but made a few nice entries on pull backs, and I maintained my discipline for the majority of my trades. Made couple small blunders, but they didnt cost me too much.
Trying to restrict myself to the very best trades, but thats pretty tough if you have a good setup and your stop gets hit too quick. So I looked for the very best setups. Of course, in hindsight, some of theose setups didnt develop very well, but at least I didnt get hit too hard. All in all it was a good morning.
relying on price action ala Al Brooks, and I like his methodology. He isnt saying anything different from anyone else, but as I develop my own strategy, I find his his outlook on trading very matter of fact and transparent.
A trade has a 50% chance of being a winner or a loser. Of course...the price could go up, or go down. And 40% of the time, you will be wrong. not make a mistake, but wrong.
Happenned to me today. I only had 35% of my trades were winners. But, because I let my profits run and cut my losses I came out ahead.
20 trades today...had more than a few stopped out trades that I got in because I was convivnced the trade was a good one. I moved my stops to 1 tick below my entry when i was in the green buy 4 ticks, but the pullback on the 5 minute bar hit me more than once. I tightened my stop too much on a trade or 2, and I widened it on a couple of trades. My biggest loser was down 7 ticks. I moved my stop, then took the hit when it didnt work as I had expected.
All the trades were on the ES .
Wont detail the trades...but my tick count was as follows for the trades.
forgive my previous post. Day is first then month.
15 trades. Not a lot, in my opinion, because if I grouped them for the PA signal I observed on my 5 Min Emini, it was only 9 trades.
I think this is abetter way to evaluate my stratagy, as a multiple of trades for what I saw (or thought I saw)
Not going to post my trades, as it really is for my own benefit. Going to restrict journal to general comments, unless i have something i really feel like sending out into the world.
Had a bad run of 4 consecutive losing trades, where i was looking to short after a failed long. My long trade lost me 6 ticks, then, when I saw a short setup, I tried to enter, but got stopped becaus my stop was too tight. Lost another 2 points with that trade, down 17 ticks. Tried to get back the failed long( revenge trading, I guess you call it) Well, cost me.
45 minutes in, and I am down 12 ticks on the day. Basically on 4 trades.
The failed trades happened within 15 minutes...so now, after a loosing trade, going to wait for a HP trade, but not for at least 15 minutes. Back to back losers are killer.
Next 3 winners...20 ticks. traded well on those...waited till i was ready, and it worked well.
Shorted nest trade. Hit my stop...lost 4 ticks...but I was correct in that it ran down16 ticks, and my stop was too narrow.
Next 4 trades....all longs in the with a bull trend. +13 ticks. +17 on the day.
Strong finish after a crummy start.
Had a couple of glaring errors, but I felt I did well. Even tho I am positive for the day, I felt I may have overtraded. Gotta work on that.
Yesterday, I was up as well, tho, only 4 ticks on 16 trades. Commissions killed my profits.
21 trades today. Is it too many? i dont think so for where I am. Using a tiny stop, 2 to 4 ticks, on scalps, so I get stopped out quick. Tried to increase my stop given todays tight trading range on the ES, but it wasnt big enough.
I learned a couple things today. Trying to scale in and out of trades so as to buy in an average price so that when my anticipated setup goes, I am in a better postion to profit off a smaller increase. in other words, a position sizing strategy. Still working on one that has a better rule set.
Was down 14 ticks on the day, but still wound up in the black. not much in the black for the time I spent at my station. Traded 1 contract, increased to 2 and even 3 when I felt I was in the right position. What I have learned is that traders almost never agreee on what they see, or how to trade it. It is a very personal thing, and if you are pfofitable, then you have a good system. But the most importeant part of the system is the person looking at the screen.
I made 2 terrible blunders today. 2 trades that cost me 5 points...back to back. problem is, upon review, the ES moved the way I had anticipated, but not before it hit my stop on my trend trades. Reviewing the chart, i can see clearly, in hindsight, that my stop been wider, by 2 ticks, i would have 3 or 4 points. but, alas, hindsight is always 20/20.
12 winners, vs 9 losers.
If i just eliminated the 2 ill advisable trades, I would have been much better, with a better profit margin.
I identified a couple of 10 to 20 bar trends early. Too early, as it turned out, and got stopped out. This is so much like gold. Trading, like golf, the best player is the one that minimizes mistakes, displays consistency, and is calm and confident.
Am I truly beggining to grasp this stuff? Is it really that simple? Yes, it is that simple. no need to complicate things. Efficient market theory states that in market of perfect equilibrium, or prefectly efficient markets, the ROI is always corresponds to the amount of Risk in the transaction. Of course, the reason that traders, or investors or anyone for that matter, make a ROI above the risked amount si because markets are ineffiient. Therefore, one will never create perfect sytem to operate in an imperfect market. Close is close enough.
This is an interesting quest I am on. It is very challenging, and it is enjoyable, least I find it enjoyable.
Not getting any feedback on my posts. Any way i can make them more interesting?
The following 3 users say Thank You to VinceVirgil for this post:
Don't worry too much about others and feedback on the posts.
The journal is for you. To improve your own trading. And sure, it can help others as they struggle with similar things as you and you share knowledge, but the most benefit is to you directly for posting.
You might want to include charts that shows entries and exits. I always recommend everyone go back and read their last two weeks of journal entries each weekend, so they can see if there is progress being made. To me, it is helpful to see charts so you can recognize certain patterns easier.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
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The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
Thanks. Will keep that in mind for my future posts. I have a hardcopy book that i write all my trades in, and Print out charts so that i can mark them up. I also have printed out a number of weeks of charts, so that I can become familiar with the setups I am trading. They are the same setups everyone trades...Double tops, Double bottoms, pullbacks, reversals, with trend, or countertrend above or below the teh EMA.
Just scalp trading for now, but will attempt to trade swings and longer trends over then next week. Going to specifically look for longer stronger setups for longer trades.
Anyway, thanks Big Mike.
The following 2 users say Thank You to VinceVirgil for this post:
I'll say this about your thread. You are on the right track early. Please do not go chasing more indicators if you are having a tough time getting profitable.
There is only one way to be profitable. And that is to be patient enough to have the market structure match your trading strategy. And only trade when it does. This can be on any time frame. The beauty of moving averages is that you can have the same exact look on a daily chart or a 55 tick chart. If you take away the time frame information, the charts look the same, therefore if you master one time frame, you can scale it up to larger time frames to trade for larger targets.
A word about stops. Tiny stops are the death of a trader. Trail stops are almost as bad IF you are trying for larger moves. I like trail stops for scalps because often times the market can move faster than you can manually move it and i like to lock in profit on scalps.
Here is my chart set ups. I haven't posted charts in awhile because I got bored posting them every day when the entire battle is won between your ears. But just so you know that simpler is better. I actually trade on a one min chart and it looks identical to the 5 min but I wanted to show you the five min so all of Friday's action could fit on one chart.
On this chart, there is only one trade that meets my rules and does so in my trading session of the first three hours of the crude session. See if you can find it.
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I think you have a chance to make it. We share a similar background, well other than the comp science and oil field careers. I to spent years in banking/mortage/finance and made well into the mid six figure income until the housing bust here in the southwest buried me and many others I knew. So trading is replacing that and I am in the process of moving past the break even stage of trading to daily consistency.
For me, the break throughs came when I quit chasing indicators, focused on simplicity and more importantly, recognized that we get paid to wait. Hours of boredom interspersed with periods of what appears to be frantic activity. In reality though, you sit, wait for the set up, enter, wait for your target or for price to tell you the trade is over. If you do a good job, you make money, if not, you lose. It really is that simple.
Where else can you get paid a weeks salary for sitting on your hands for an hour?
Good luck, I'll be following your progess...oh and by the way, did anyone take you up on your offer to start a hedge fund? I am always willing to be friends with someone that can raise a million bucks in a week or two!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
OK...I figure your entry would be around 97.15 around 12:00. Looks like a test of reversal to counter trend begining around 10 am. In fact, I would be tempted to take the trade just after 10;00 on the daily low as a reversal/ countertrend trade. Of course, this is hindsight, mucho different when the chart is being painted on the right side tick by tick.
The chart you have for me is a bear trend day, so right from the opening I would have been looking for shorts, untill 10:00 am or so.
Thanks for your comments. I am getting more comfortable with the process, and gaining experience. futures.io (formerly BMT) has been a big help for me, and it really is a help.