Went long at 9:45, and took a full stop near 9:55.
Massive spike at 10:05, as I was thinking that maybe the market is short after all.
After the big move up on Friday, and the lack of support for higher prices except for the big spike at 10:05 (147 ticks, give or taker a tick), it now looked more like a selloff to a previous support level particilarily since price was drifting lower, except for the Iranian news which was beleived to have cause the spike.
Support formed the 8210 level, and the move up brought us near to the RTH open.
We could be in for good day tommorrow. ( meaning a significant more higher...)
The only thing that could muddy up the water is slow low volume prior to the Wednesday 4th, which may seem more like a Friday then a Wednesday.
Total # of Trades 8
Percent Profitable 87.50%
# of Winning Trades 7
# of Losing Trades 1
Average Trade 0.10%
Average Winning Trade 0.14%
Average Losing Trade -0.25%
Ratio avg. Win / avg. Loss 0.55
Max. conseq. Winners 5
Max. conseq. Losers 1
Largest Winning Trade 0.18%
Largest Losing Trade -0.25%
I took off early, went to a friends trailer on a piece of property he owns on Lake Superior, the largest fresh water lake in the world, and caught a nice lake trout. We cooked it up and ate it as soon as we got back to shore. Didnt even think of taking a picture. Nice 3 pounder. BBQed a couple of steaks, and we had a little surf and turf action.
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I use the 5 minute because I believe I can fine tune the entries and manage the exit .on this time frame, based on the stops I beleive are appropriate.
Trading for me is trying not to loose. The more experience I gain, the more I am convinced that this is the only way that trading from me makes sense. So, on the 5 minute, I find the movement is enough to identify direction without excessive noise. And if the trade is not working out the way I have anticipated, I can close it out quickly.
I have decided against the listing specific entries and exits because of the time it took to mark up a chart on Ninja, save it, post it.
So, i am more selective on that. I will post some trades, but not like before.
ON the 5 minut, I see 2 legs down to support at around 8575.
Some traders dont post any trades because they dont want to undully influence any newer traders. I am begginning to see the wisdom in that. If you try to trade like I trade, the chances of success will be slim.
In addition, one cant trade anothers system. You have to make it your own, through personal testing and research. And once completed, it is very personal. ( Well, its never truly complete. Trading evolves over time and with more experience gained. I am a much better trader today than a few months ago, but I have put in a tremendous amount of time into this.)
I use Market and Volume Profile to see over all market context. There is a significant amount of information available free on the internet on the subject.
Markets in Profile by Dalton is a book i reccomend. Its pretty complicated, but I has helped me to understand the market as an auction, and it is a concept that I am comfortable.
As well as Al Brooks, Price Action Bar By Bar. Another tough read, but I refer back to it often. Chapter 1, chapter 15 and the outline of terms is what I started with. Those got me started.
Right now, I am leaning toward a bullish opening, bercause of the overnight move.
Last edited by VinceVirgil; July 3rd, 2012 at 08:51 AM.
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I was in the local book store the other day, getting a new journal, and I read a couple of pages from a book on Canadina investing.
China surpassed the US as the largest market for the sale of automobiles in 2011. It was enevitable thought it would 2018-2020.
I wonder how much effect that will have on the price of oil? Now, the one thng that China dosnt have is the roads for all those cars. And how much they drive those cars will have a direct effect on how much oil they neeed for their cars. But thats still a lot of cars.
Now, if the demand for oil is increasing, as it appears to be, and the oil companies are looking for oil in deep water is priced at 73 to 78 dollars a barrel for production cost, is oil at 84 dollars a bargain? How about 90? How about 100?
And how long will it take to get there?
My strategy is to look for the best opportunities on the long side, while at the same time, protecting my capital and limiting my downside risk.
But I think oil is cheap right now.
Last edited by VinceVirgil; July 3rd, 2012 at 12:31 PM.
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First trade was positive, so I pushed long into the noon. No short trades.
I was finished after the last trade.
I had 1 losing trade...-20 ticks off the 2 leg pullback to the trend line on my 5 minute. around 10:20 I went long off the first leg, and got taken out for -20 ticks.
5 trades, 4 winners, 1 loser, which I dont have a picture of. Cant do the loosing trades, they happen too fast and who want sto see a looser anyway?
I mentioned I would take shots of my trades anymore, but, these were easy to do, and it shows where my entries were.
I really havent changed my strategy for almost a year. I have modified a lot of stuff, but all the changes are evolutionary, not revolutionary.
I tried the scalping for about a month. Couldn't do it with consistency. My mind was flying all over the place. Long, then short, then long. Too much anxiety.
I use 5 minute, price action, but Market Proile is a recent addition, but it is for context only, not for enreies and exits strictly. I look for areas that make sense to do business, but ultimately price action determines my exact entries.
Credit FT71 for his webinars. I am also a client of VanKar trading, and FT71 conducts a live chat for brokerage clients on the ES. You have to be a live trader tho. No Sim trades allowed. they are tracked and if you make sim trades, you are booted.
I use Rancho Dinero suite, and the webinars on Rancho are very good, but you have to be a member to view them also.
My method is simple for me, and I have shared most of it on my journal. If anyone reads read it from the beginning, they will get an accurate overview of my methods. In fact, it is really textbook.
Asking about a trade is fine, but I wont be giving out chapter and verse for everything I do.
Takes too long and, I wont reveal my edge. Its nothing earth shatterring, but it is mine, so dont ask for all my rules and such. The complete story is for my family and friends only. And I decide who a friend is.
Risk of not greater that 1-2%. And more like >1%...for all trades.
That means 3 cars on a 100,000 account and a 15-20 ticks stop for less than 1%. In this scenario, on 3 cars, I can have a 30 tick stop. (900 dollars, .9% )
Thats the maximum on a single trade. While the trade is working, the risk changes. However, I still want to maintain a reasonable risk ratio in a trade.
If I trail the price by 20 ticks from the high, and I still want to mainiain a 1:2 risk ratio, then the target needs to be 40 ticks above the high. no real stats for that. Those are my own rules.
However, this is really an compeletly elastic ruturn curve, because by definition, a trail stop has no risk because it is only on a profitanble trade that I use a trailing stop. It is an infinite return. I hope this makes sense.
I also use a 5 momentum with Fattails VWAP indicator, as It provides me with a good overview of previous session levels. The guys a genius.
One final mention is on my 2nd chart, i had my trailng stop hit on a pull back, but I reentered the trade with a reduced size.
Today was terrific.
Last edited by VinceVirgil; July 3rd, 2012 at 02:22 PM.
Reason: I wrote 3rd...it is 2nd
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There is no right or wrong answer. It allows for personal interpretaion. The point is, however, that given just this chart, how and why would you reason where to take a trade. Or more importantly, off this chart alone, where is price heading and why?
If you dont want to say, for fear of being wrong, on the record, dont worry. There is no wrong answer.
Because , as Jack Shwager said on his Webinar Saturday, one of the the common traits of all successful traders is flexibility. To be able to adjust or fine tune their thinking based on new information very quickly.
Choices are, long, short, or no trade...wait. And why.
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I do not trade this week as i am outside of town but wanted to add my opinion regarding the current state of affair.
I usually try to identify a swing trade based on the state of imbalance which i preceive on the chart and would want to go long at very specific locations (2 in this case). I would start with 1 lot and add 1 more as shown on my example. You'll see some differences with your chart but the structure is the same. My swing trades are done on the CFD counterpart of the crude oil contract.
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I think there are always two potential valid scenarios at every step. The difference resides in your perception of the risk:reward at this point. Price has reached a valid level to go short but given the strength of the move up to this point, the likely scenario (in my mind) is for a retracement and continuation to the upside. Even if i am wrong and price fills my first and second positions, i would be relatively confident i could bail out of this trade at BE given the support levels created during the last rally. Also, i did answer in the context of your original question ....
Last edited by trendisyourfriend; July 4th, 2012 at 11:01 AM.