One of those days when price was way down on the overnight sessions. In fact, price was off almost 150 ticks off of Fridays VPOC.
Looked over Panda Warriors post from last night, and he made some interesting comments as to what to expect Monday, based on previous price levels as well as current price.
I tick that most everyone agrees, price has gone to the downside, however, difficult to get a good read on where to from here as we have blown through most support levels. Overnight, it went even further.
Looked at price action closely, and in fact took a very early trade...short on thin volume, as I thought price would continue to break down.
It was an impatient trade, in hindsight, there were too many overlapping bars and very little momentum. too slow to close it out, and I got my full stop hit for -15.
I then turned my attention to the possibility that we would not retest the low, and that price indeed had gone much too far. I was looking long, with a potential short scalp if we ran into price resistance.
Trade of the day was at the opening.
Entry was 8227, Looked like price going lower was meeting resistance, and after the close of the 2 small dojis on the 5 minute, I went long with my SL at -15 ticks, 8212. if price collapsed to that level, i would have taken the stop.
As it was, i had only a 3 tick pullback before price popped higher.
Got stopped out on the pullback at 8325. +98.
After that trade, i took a breather to refocus...wasnt about to jump back in and gve achunk of that most excellent trade back.
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8:40 strong move up in price premarket. Is this the day we have price breakout to the upside.
Yesterday was a fairly typical day on the CL. RTH range roughly 2.25. Mostly to the upside. Today it wouldnt come as a surprize if we had an inside balance day. Range today in the RTH less than 100 ticks. Bottom was 83.70, top 8452.
nothing spectacular, but they were there.
Missed the big move pre market. That was basically the range for the day...
Being consious of the MAE is a helpful statistic for me. I calculate my stop loss before I place my trade, and is helping me to get into trades a a more favourable price.
Areas of support and resistance I want to see tested twice. Breakouts ussually fail on the first attempt. best to wait for a pull back on the CL, unless there is strong momentum, which, as all CL traders know, can meant a 50 or 75 tick bar on the 5 minute. trading the CL does not give much time to make a decision. You have to anticipate price movement. If you are rattled by a 25 tick wick on a candlestick, then, CL is not the instument for you.
If the ES is a Cruise Ship, because of its volume, then the CL is a Sports Car.
CL requires that one make decisions quickly, which is OK by me, however, one can overtrade as a result.
Been looking at teh ES, as has been suggested by a fellow trader, only because it isnt as hands on as the CL, and the ES is influenced by oil, as there is a correlation. Dont want to be a bear on one instrument, and a bull on another. well, at least not premenantly.
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Its important to have rules when trading. In fact they are one of those important aspects of trading.
But how many is too many? If one has so many rules that need to be followed before a trade is placed, then one could wind up in paralysis by analysis. On the other hand, if one trades with no rules, overtrading could result.
And what rules does one use? At one time I thought rules for trading was based mainly on entries, however, I have modified this greatly over the last few months. In fact, I have come to realize that one should have rules governing each and every aspect of trading.
Quite a bit of my previous invesment experience is applicable to futures trading, particularily the money and risk management aspects of investment planning.
When building an investment portfolio, there are a number of questions that need to be answered, both personal as well as statistical. Personal includes what is important about money to them, what are there short and long term goals, what do they perceive as areas of concern. Is it capital accumulation, excessive taxation, comfortable retirement, childrens education, charitable contributions. etc, then there is the statistical...what is their income, how much have they currently accumulated in assets, do they anticipate an increase or decrease in income, what is their timeline. Then its on to what kind of investments are they comfortable with, risk profile, investor temperment etc. From this, an advisor can build a protfolio that meets the criteria of the investor. Its not perfect of course, and modifications need to be made, but its a comprehensive picture.
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Sounds good, how does one do that? I am focused only on the CL, and it is all I can handle. Currently, I spend roughly 50 hrs a week on trading the CL (including weekends...I am an early riser), and around 30 hours a week in my wealth mangement buisness.
\my day typically starts at 6:30. EST. ussually some reading...mostly phsycology. Right now I am reading the daily trading coach. Just a few pages, it is inspiring. Homework for my trding plan. Pretty simple. previous levels, check the news events, look over my account statemnets. Fire up the computer, and make sure everything is in working order.
A few exersizes. Have a kettlebell that I lift for 20 minutes . Kinda fun, combination aerobic anarobic and resistance trainnig in something the shape of a cannonball with a handle.
breakfast...coffee, and such.
then its ready to go...I am ready to go by 8:15 and at my computer. there till 11:00 am. Then I have to check with my assistant. emails, appointments in the afternoon. Off tothe office ussually by 11:30. ts only a 10 minute drive.
I sometimes trade from 1 to 2:30. depends on the day. I will stay longer than 11:00 am if I beleive it warrants it.
Afternoons its investment stuff. Summers are ussually slower, people are at their cottages and on vacation. Short summer in Canada, so people thend to shut work related items down from late June till labour day.
late afternoon...webinars, chart building, review my trades for the day. Check out futures.io (formerly BMT) blogs.
I do stuff in the evenings as well, after dinner.
I would like to look at other instruments, but right now, I have enough on my plate. And I am getting better at trading... Right now, just building up my capital. I would like to sell my book at some time, but right now, its a steady paycheck, and once I sell it, there is no going back. I will eventually, but not right now. Beleive, I think about this often.
its a big step...and I am proceeding with caution.
5 trades today.
MAE 6.8 If I have a full stop in 5 trades, and BE, right there my MAE is a minimum of 3.0.
Average trade 16.5.
Posted a chart of my last trade. Posted teh final recap after I was finished for the day.
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Price of crude was up 200 ticks ON. Given we had strong pirce movement last week, and prices had a chance to think about it over the weekend, I looked like a may be a balance day at the least, or a gap fill back to last weeks VWAP
As it was, prices were bearish right from the opening...so shorts today.
Took a couple of longs, but for the most part I had a short bias. Worked out alright. Not a lot of sustined movement...price was mostley grinding down lower, so targets were tighter and I hd more trades as a result.
Using a Volume Impression Footprint from my Rancho Dinero suite, as per my plan, I am lookiing to use to help with entry and exit areas and getting on the right side of the trade using order flow.
9 trades +122.
I had a few BE trades, but I didnt want to add them in and clutter up my chart. No comission cost as they were all BE +1.
I trade Price action on the 5 minute, with MP to identify areas where i want to do business. I am using a new volume footprint to try to identify order flow and areas where buyers and sellers seem to be stepping in. So in a way, I use the volume profile and price momentum as an aid to price action on the 5 minute.
I have changed my background color to grey, as I find it easier on my eyes.
8341 was the POC from yesterday, and the LOD. Also, on the 5 momneton, price had migrated a significant distnce from VWAP.
I initially went long at 8357, but price retraced and took out my runner at BE+1. But I immediately got back in 8365. Why at that price? Because 8350 is my stop price and that is below the close of the previous double bottom near the LOD. And a long bear tail is really bull bar on a shorter time frame.
I have a journal where I keep all my trades, and now I am going to keep a better week to week record of my performance, and attempt to get away from the day to day post in order to focus on the weekly, monthly and quarterly performance.
I am starting to repeat myself, so in an effort to keep my pasts more relevant, I will focus on only a couple of trades a few times a week. That way i beleive I can be more relevant.
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