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This is good advise, so I will follow it...


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This is good advise, so I will follow it...

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  #201 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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blueline View Post
Hello Vince,
I have enjoyed reading your thread and am amazed at your progress as are others.You may have advantages such has having invested or traded large amounts both successfully and otherwise so perhaps don't have the emotional baggage.You are probable also smarter than many of us you certainly have a very successful family and seem to assimilate lots of material.
I do find your progress encouraging as apposed to normal gloomy statistics.
I would like to ask you if you found using Brooks price action and S & R a breakthrough? I am trying to study other material before I tackle Brooks.
Thanks
John

Thanks for your recognition. I do appreciate it. lol, but i dont think I am any smarter...not by a long shot. i have done some pretty foolish things in my day, I assure you.

I think being in the investment business certainly is an advantage. Being self employed as well, as I am used to having to rely on myself for my income. So I always, from the beginning, have approached trading as a business first, never as a hobby.

All of my work has been in the gathering of assets, because I was paid not for the trading of assets. We have fund managers for that. The restirctions placed upon advisors in canada for trading in discretionary account on behalf of clients is staggering. In order to be fully compliant with security regs on the retail side, i would have to call a client every time i was going to buy or sell a security, and get their go ahead. To do otherwise, I would have to be a discretionary trader for other peoples money. I wont go into the details, but take it from, it isnt pretty. The compliance is unbeleivable. But, ultimately, it is in place to protect the client. Ask any financial professional what is their biggest challenge, and 9 out of 10 times it is the compliance side.

I have been through some tough times. September October November 2008 is an example. Some accounts were down 40% in that period. They have since recovered, but it is a shock to have to tell a client they are down 200K on their lifes savings account and to tell them it will be OK. I have learned to lose money, as well as make money. ANd pretty significant sums.

Being able to assimilate material? interesting that you put it that way. Ever see someone that seems to have natural abiltiy in something, like a child that can play the piano,? I have a better memory than most people, and I have good recall ability. Always have. Born that way, dont know any differently.

And you are right about coming from a successfull family. my father and his 2 brothers had 14 children, and all of them went to university, at least some university, not all of them graduated. So I can rightfully say that higher education was always part of the equation.

About Brooks... I got Brooks right from the beginning. His approach made sense to me. now, there are others that speak of price action as well, but I had his book, so it was as good a place as any to start. his reading of the 5 minute chart encouraged me because here was someone who appeared succesful with a very simple single chart and his own beleif about the market. The breakthrough for me, if you can call it that, was his first webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT). I got a chance to hear him and his thought process. It gave his writings further depth, like a professor presenting a paper at a conference. Academics refer to it as publish or perish. He is willing to stand up to peer review, and I find that impressive. So thats why i learned the basics from his book.

I have a friend who subscribed to Shadow Traders, and I sat in on a couple of classes that he was taking. They were talking about fractals and stochastics and line crosses and some other stuff that i found difficult to follow. And when i asked a question why, they really couldnt explain to me why it was supposed to work. They referred to some proptietary software that one would have to subscribe to, which I never did. I have seen my share of so/so investments, and Shadow traders seemed to have all the earmarks.

This forum has been a big help to me as well. I have been helped in a number of areas, and, as I look back, I am very grateful for ones that have taken their time to comment on my journal. Many of their comments have led me to make leaps in my progress.

But I have the good sense to realize that any success i have enjoyed so far lacks longevity. I have only been trading derivatives since August 2011. I beleive its a worthy pursuit, and I will continue on with it as long as I am able. its been interesting thus far, and my only regret is that I didnt come to it sooner. (Of course, where i live, it wasnt possible until the the internet took over) No doubt about it, if i had been born in Chicago, i would have been looking for a job on the CME.

Hope i have answered your question.

VV

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  #202 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
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Another month. Another month. i like the beginning of the months. Start over with a clean sheet of paper, no marks on the calender. And march is ideal spring skiing weather and the time when the weather isnt deep freeze in this part of the world. Already planning camping trips.

I like to camp in the backcountry. canoe, tents, pack everything in. Been doing this for over 10 years, and tho its hard work, its very relaxing. No phones, no interuptions, the only people you see not in your group are ussually a mile away canoeing past, and then, only if you are on a major thoroughfare. That means 3 groups a day paddle by.

I was in Ottawa last wek because my mother was having open heart surgury. Went very well, and she was realeased yesterday, exactly 5 days after her operation. Thats really amazing. The Ottawa Civic Hospital is really dedicated to cardiac care, and that is what they focus on at the Cardiac Institute. Its a open heart surgery factory, and they truly know what they are doing. They explain in detail every step, so that patient and their families are fully prepared. They do a great job.

She is still in Ottawa, staying at my cousins home(her nephew). I was there till last Sunday. Nice place, very comfortable. They got a new car, that I had the priviledge of driving. Mercedes C300. Cant beat that new car smell. navigation system is very cool, esspecially if you dont know city. Plug in the address, and off you go.Almost drives itself.

Today was ok...caught 1 good mover, as I was watching we may get to 108. It almost got there, but it was a difficult climb, and as of right now, it sold off quite strongly thereafter.

6 trades

+60

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  #203 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Fridays are always slow days fro me. Generally they are days when I can catch up on the weeks paperwork.

I have a personal assistant for my wealth management business. She answers the phones, pays the bills, arranges client meetings and handles the administrative paperwork. She has worked for me for over 10 years now, but his week she has a bad cold that developed into a chest infection, so she was off all week at home and taking antibiotics. Made for a more difficult week, for sure.

I had a pretty good week this week, as I was positive most days. had a few stop outs, but i suppose thats to be expected. Keeping my own council on that, but I am always looking to improve.

+15+12-15+30-15+23+33=+83

Had 2 big movers, and I almost didnt take that last trade, as I was already a head 50 ticks, and I didnt want to give any back. I saw avery tight balance channel for over 1 hour and a half, and I took a couple of trades during that time, as I was expected a break, either higher or lower. I wasnt sure which. BUt teh geeneral trend was down, and becasue of the 3 failures to break the EMA, and the ticght consolidation toward 11:30, I thought it was a reasonable short. I went short at 107.27, and it collapsed as soon as I placed the trade. Took a picture in the trade. A nice way to finish the week.

Monday 45

Tuesday 65

Weds 80

Thurs 60

Friday 83
--------------
Total 333
========

This is my best week since I started, no losing days. I am looking to keep doing what I am doing beause I feel I am making very good progress. But i think I can get better. i have a few things I still want to work on. I am gaining confidence, but I realize I have very little experience compared with many on this forum.

am enjoying the process, and I know I have a lot more to learn, and a lot farther to go.

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  #204 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Fridays are always slow days fro me. Generally they are days when I can catch up on the weeks paperwork.

I have a personal assistant for my wealth management business. She answers the phones, pays the bills, arranges client meetings and handles the administrative paperwork. She has worked for me for over 10 years now, but his week she has a bad cold that developed into a chest infection, so she was off all week at home and taking antibiotics. Made for a more difficult week, for sure.

I had a pretty good week this week, as I was positive most days. had a few stop outs, but i suppose thats to be expected. Keeping my own council on that, but I am always looking to improve.

+15+12-15+30-15+23+33=+83

Had 2 big movers, and I almost didnt take that last trade, as I was already a head 50 ticks, and I didnt want to give any back. I saw avery tight balance channel for over 1 hour and a half, and I took a couple of trades during that time, as I was expected a break, either higher or lower. I wasnt sure which. BUt teh geeneral trend was down, and becasue of the 3 failures to break the EMA, and the ticght consolidation toward 11:30, I thought it was a reasonable short. I went short at 107.30, and it collapsed as soon as I placed the trade. A nice way to finish the week.

Monday 45

Tuesday 65

Weds 80

Thurs 60

Friday 83
--------------
Total 333
========

This is my best week since I started, no losing days. I am looking to keep doing what I am doing beause I feel I am making very good progress. But i think I can get better. i have a few things I still want to work on. I am gaining confidence, but I realize I have very little experience compared with many on this forum.

am enjoying the process, and I know I have a lot more to learn, and a lot farther to go.

VERY NICELY DONE!....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #205 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
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Great record for the week. There was an instructor at www.traders-secret-library.com (most of it was bunk; mainly a paid forum for the "Surefire Trading Contest" held every year.) that I was a member of for a year. His bio on the board said he "trades for a living". He claimed to have averaged 40-80 ticks a day on the 6E mainly doing countertrend scalps of of BBands and/or CCI trendline breaks with 8 to 12 hours sessions on the 1min or 5min, mainly the 1min. He was retired and trading was all he did now besides the instruction. We only had a couple of live webinars a month. All of us who attended could never get to that average trying his method but that was the kind of goal , at least 20-40 ticks a day average, we would want to strive for. (when we asked he said he had a "feel" for the market that one is supposed to eventually acquire. And he said he had become CP a few years ago, but it took him also a few years prior to get to that level of CP in the first place) And you've surpassed that average imo.

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  #206 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
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Thanks for your comments, Cloudy.

As i look back over these last few months on my journal, I do recognise that my average day is improving. Significantly. I have to attribute this to a significant difference in my approach to the Cl.

A few weeks back, I had much smaller targets, in fact, I was operating with an 10 tick SL and a 16 tick target. But I felt like I was trading on pins and needles. Seldom I would get to 16. in fact, my average win was alot smaller. If I got to 15, that was a big deal. Mostly my winnning trades were 1:1 risk. Even though they started out at 1:1.6. I had to have a 60 to 70% winning precentage for me to be profitable, because I would have a few BE in the mix.

So I focus on placing better trades with better risk management ratio and better money managment. That meant bigger targets, exersizing more patience and fewer trades, which for me, was liberating. Its wasnt about better technical skill. Its about better phsychology. And I can pinpoint the exact moment it happenned, when the light went on for me. Will it stay on? I hope so.

But I do know, for me, I will never go back to the way I traded a few months ago. I am a completley different trader, and much more successful. Absolutely, no doubt about it.

So now its about contunuing to improve, and frankly, this is really a lot of fun. It has renewed my interest in the financial markets. Now, all I need is the experience that only time will bring.

knowledge + experience = wisdom

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  #207 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
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Just reveiwing what I can anticipate on the CL at the open. It can go higher, it can go lower, it can stay the same.

Last week was quite the week. Large swing in the price of CL, but it seemed to be tradable all week. Interesting to see what this week has in store for us.

Not going with PFG Best. I haevan account ready to fund, but they only have 32 bit Ninja Trader platform, and I cant seem to get it to run on my 64 bit platform. A few days of fiddling, and running it on my laptop parrallel to my other account, but trying to migrate over to my main trading computer with the 64 bit platform and to maintain my account configuration with AMP Futures is causing me too much grief. So, I am going to set up an account with VanKar trading.

Looking at market Profile approcah to refine my setups in the CL. It seems to me that if one wants top be a serious trader, one needs to have a good grasp of the overall context of the market, and market profile aoppears to be a good way to plan. Looking at the market as an auction, to my way of thinking, is good way to attempt to anitcipate price movement. More buyers than seller, pricce goes up. More sellers than buyers, price goes down. Buyers = sellers, price stays the same. Elegant in its simplicity.

Certainly is an aid to setting targets and where to place stops as well as how ot trail a trade so that one can capture the majoprity of a move. one can read much of this in a 5 minute candlestick as it paints, but visually seeng the amount of participents in the market, as well as how far price has migrated form a balanced position has to be an aid in planning a trade. Anyway, I am looking to Market Profile as an addition to what i am currently doing. My entries and exits are all dopnje on the 5 minute chart, and reading PA is still my main focus.

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  #208 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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what was to be expected on the CL today? Well, after last week I thouught that we may test the highs of last week. Support of betwenn 105 to 105.50, and aftert he overnight, I thought it might test the low.

10 trades today. 3 BE trades. I was aggressive with my stop to BE today, thats why the 3 BE trades. I took 3 full stops early, so that colored my approach today. Was more cautious than ussual, but I pulled it together toward the end of the morning. My BE trades were later.

After 5 trades, I was BE. Just wasnt seeing the chart clearly for some reason. My 5th trade wasnt a good entry, and i shoud have recognised the trend was running out of gas. Overall a bad trade.

I took the short on trade 6 like the previous trade should have been.

After the 6 th trade, i took a bit of a break, as I felt myself a little anxious and out of sorts. Took a break and tried to calm down and think carefully what i shoud do for the rest of the session, to try to see if the CL was still tradable, given my state of mind. Being able to recognise when I am going off the rails is helping me to keep my losses under control. I captured 29 ticks on that move.

4 more trades for +21. thats where the 3 BE trades came in.

+37 ticks on the day

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  #209 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
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A couple of snaps of where I spend a few hours each day.

Its a bit messy at the moment. i use the laptop as a backup just in case, and I have a backup power supply that gives me 15 minutes should i have a power failure.

I have a high speed internet connection, 150bps. I have 2 acer moniters, 23.5 inch as wella s an older 19 inch LG that I use for email. I was thinking of getting a 27 inch monitor, just for more real eastate, adn becuase I have lousy eyesight.

My computer is an i5 with somekinda special video cards as well as 3 fans and some cool led lights that glow in the dark. All in all, seems to work very well together.

Anyway, thats the setup. The desktop is a dedicated trading conmputer was built specifically for trading, so it has no other use.

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  #210 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
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I now have to enter my jouranl on page 2. I post mostly every day, and untill the last few days, my journal was always on page 1. Now its on page 2. An indication of not only the popularity of journaling, but also the added incentive of prizes for the March for the best journal, with uploads.

Great incentive, and now all the closet journalers are taking the plunge and coming out of the woodwork. Thats truly a good thing, because the best piece of advice i took was to journal on a regular basis. i journal in my book, as well as on futures.io (formerly BMT). That is strictly a precautionary measure, in case somthing happens to my system.

Had a better plan today, after yesterday, when i went over my trades, i noticed i was a little too anxious on a couple of trades. Today I was determined to take what i determined to be the best setups, because I wanted to be in the position to hold for longer moves, and I was anticipating a break to the high or low. I was also determined not to be as aggressive with narrowing my stop. Narrowing ones stop is an indication I was not confident of my postitioning and therefore, likely should not have made the trade.

Support was 104.85- 105.00. 2 profitable trades off that area.

5 trades today, 1 premarket short, had one working at the open long which I thought was original support. Got back in when I realized the market was heading lower.

+15-14+26+28+28 = +80

Still feel the CL is preparing for something big this week, waiting for news, or confirmation or something.

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  #211 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I now have to enter my jouranl on page 2. I post mostly every day, and untill the last few days, my journal was always on npage 1. Now its on page 2. An indication of not only the popularity of journaling, but also the added incentive of prizes for the March for the best journal, with uploads.

Great incentive, and now all the closet journalers are taking the plunge and coming out of the woodwork. Thats truly a good thing, because the best piece of advice i took was to journal on a regular basis. i journal in my book, as well as on futures.io (formerly BMT). That is strictly a precautionary measure, in case somthing happens to my system.

Had a better plan today, after yesterday, when i went over my trades, i noticed i was a little too anxious on a couple of trades. Today I was determined to take what i determined to be the best setups, because I wanted to be in the position to hold for longer moves, and I was anticipating a break to the high or low. I was also determined not to be as aggressive with narrowing my stop. Narrowing ones stop is an indication I was not confident of my postitioning and therefore, likely should not have made the trade.

Support was 104.85- 105.00. 2 profitable trades off that area.

5 trades today, 1 premarket short, had one working at the open long which I thought was original support. Got back in when I realized the market was heading lower.

+15-14+26+28+28 = +80

Still feel the CL is preparing for something big this week, waiting for news, or confirmation or something.

Nicely Done!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #212 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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For you serious traders, I just finished a book that I beleive would be very helpful. Its entitled "The Invisible Gorilla - How Our Intuitions Decieve Us" by Chabris and Simons.

The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us

It isnt a book about trading, but rather how we can be decieved by our own minds. The exmaples that are cited come from real world exoperiences, and it should serve to help one to recognise why we think the way we do, and how to prevent making errors in judgement. It also emphasizes how our own personal perceptions can feel so correct, yet be completely wrong.

Its a pretty quick read, but it is very interesting none the less. Its worth the effort.

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  #213 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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First trade of the day hit my stop. I hate when that happens. First trade aloser. Maybe I shlud scalp a couple of ticks first thing just to make mysele feel better. I read somewhere some traders actually do that. Worth a shot...

Trading has to be the best job in the world. Dont have to leave your home, if you dont want to. Dont even have to shave. I wrote some time ago that I felt better trading if I wore appropriate business attire. lol I dont think that anymore. It was a waste of time...I dont trade any better in a shirt and tie.

Trading is financially rewarding. You are responsible for your income. No one else. Dont have to worry about layoffs, or lack of customers, or compliance, or employess if your dont want. Your income is virtually unlimited, and you have total and complete control over it, as much as anyone has, All you have to do is simply read the market your chose to trade, and buy things when prices are going up, and sell things when they are going down.

Trading isnt about greed. Its about doing things well. Being efficient. Being precise. Exersizing discipline and restraint when required, but also being decisive and confident when required. The only thing about trading I regret is that I didnt come to it sooner.

Took 5 trades today.

-15+8+2BE+20+51=+66

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  #214 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Nicely Done!

I am asking myself,

"Who is that Market Wizard that is commenting on my journal?"

Didnt recognise you with the new red banner. Congratulations!

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  #215 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I am asking myself,

"Who is that Market Wizard that is commenting on my journal?"

Didnt recognise you with the new red banner. Congratulations!

That banner has been on there for a long time....I think it means I spend a lot of time here.....it has nothing to do with my trading prowess....if only!!!!!!!!!

But thanks just the same....makes me feel important.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #216 (permalink)
 blueline 
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You seem like a wizard to me.Are you a full-time trader now?Did you quit your day-job?
Are you a Leafs fan?
John

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  #217 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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blueline View Post
You seem like a wizard to me.Are you a full-time trader now?Did you quit your day-job?
Are you a Leafs fan?
John

Thanks for the compliment. Dont have enough of a cushion in my open account yet. I have registered funds, RSP's, but I cant use them for derivative trading. But I have a plan and I am working toward it. Worlking my way up the contract ladder, slowly but surely.

Havnt quit my day job yet, but, the wealth management business really runs itself. I have wealth management clients and I have an assistant that takes care of client inquiries. I have most of my appointments in the afternoon. Because they are invested in managed accounts, I receive a percentage of the management fee for assets under administration. Typically .5 to 1 percent, gross.

Not at the point where I am comfortable with one source of income, and, I am too new at this to trade only for my own account as a source of income. Besides, the wealth managment business pays really well. Its kinda like moving out on your own for the first time. You believe you can do it, but once you take the plunge, you really cant go back easily. I can really make my own hours, as most Investment Advisors are self employed. The firm I work for allows me a lot of flexibilty.

I have only been trading derivatives since August of last year, while the Leafs were in training camp, and the season was full of hope.

Now, they have fired their coach, and they will be missing the playoffs for I cant remember when they last made the playoffs. (8 years ago)

I am having a much better year than they are.

I am switching my alliance to the Senators. They have been to the playoffs, they seem to have made all the right moves to improve their team and , when I visited Ottawa last week. the city really supports the team. they have that great young defenseman in Karlson, a superstar center in Spezza, and that goalie Anderson, that cant make a sandwich, without cutting himself. And, they are really fun to watch. Everytime I watch the Leafs recently, i feel like I feel when i see my trade going against me...I dont like that feeling. The Leafs are perenial losers. Only 1 other team has not made the playoffs in the last 8 years... the Florida Panthers, and the Leafs. Out of 30 teams!

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  #218 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Lots of interesting things happenning yesterday and today, not only in the global environment, but in my own household.

I have adjusted a couple of things for my trading routine. Used to be at my monitors at 7:00am EST. Thats too early. Had too much of a desire to take a trade too early, and I was getting beat up on my first trade. Best to wait untill after 8:30 EST, when volume seems to come in before the pit open. Have more time to prepare mentally, and have my morning constitution.

Read TigerTrader (aka Gary Phillips) threat about trading in the pits. Very good stuff, back in the days when trading derivatives was more of a contact sport. He should write a book. Would make a pretty good movie. Cant be any worse than some of the crappy movies I have seen in my life.

Another tight inside day on the CL today, after some faily good move in price to the upside overnight.

Took 5 trades, stopped out 2 times.

-16+18-15+24+38 = +49

On my chart I had an error. I marked + 14 for my second trade, it was actually +18.

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  #219 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Looking for something big to happen toda. Move higher or lower after the tight range of the last few sessions.

And I also want to be on the first page of posts, not the second.

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 Mickey Caine 
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Well you got a good move today. Hope you caught some. Looking forward to seeing your charts. Thought this might help to keep you where you belong... on the first page!!!!

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  #221 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Thanks to Mickey for keeping me on the first page!

Today I wasnt at my monitor for the opening, as i had to take my daughter to school.

As it was, i missed the double bottom at the opening, and it is a setup I have traded in the past, so I likely would have taken it. It didnt quite make yeaserdays low, but it looked like a good signal in hindsight. Of course, all the signals in hindsight are easy to pick out, a child could do it, in hindsight.

First trade hit my stop by +2 ticks. This was example of a very good trade that just didnt work out.

I got a chance at a second entry long, which i took, and I got 42 ticks out of it.

Trade 3 was a failed short at BE on thin volume. I thought we were at the top of the Range, therefore i thought a short was a HPT. It broke support, but didnt hold, so I closed it out manually. Was the right move there.

Given that volume seemed to be winding down, and that I wasnt sure if beyond 108 was a reasonable target, I went long on the 2 leg PB to the TL. I was going to be aggressive with my stop at the first sign of trouble, and then again on my last trade. +8 and +13 respectively.

One good move, but as i look at the 5 minute now, looks like a double top at 108.07 would have been an excellent 2nd entry short at 107.97.

but i was finished after trade 5...too late in the day, everyone is heading home for an early weekend.

Finished up for the week.

Mon 37
Tues 80
Wed 66
Thurs 49
Fri 49
-----------
Tot 281
======

Seems to be working well. Gonna keep doing what i have been doing. I have afew refinements in mind, but only to enhance my current parameters.

I use Price Action for trading, but I encorporate Market Profile to give me context on the market for the RTH. I believe that Price Action identifies the opportunities, and market profile identifies areas of support and resistance, as well as providing an aid to planning a strategy.

If a market is balanced, there is no change in price. Its flat, or stagnent, or stuck in a range... market profile seems like it can help to identify levels of imbalance. The migration of price from one balanced area to another balanced area, either higher or lower is how we make money.

Where i have been helped is in one key area. It has helped me to identify in myself, a long bias.

A few weeks ago, I was aware that I had a tendency to go long on trades more than short thoughout the trading session. I wanted to find out why. And did this have an impact on profitability.

On the whole, I had more long trades but, overall, they were not as profitable on average as my short trades. Is it because of the market? Are we in a bull trend? Is it because I am new to trading, and therefore have limited experince with the derivatives markets in general? Is it because of my wealth management background? That I often counsel clients to buy and hold core accounts?(i could get enough money for a small hedgefund together, but thats an entirely different topic)

Market profile has helped to remove that bias, so now I better trade what the market gives me, not what i think it should give me.

One less thing to worry about.

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  #222 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Quick question, are you considering dropping the ema from your charts? I've been looking at a naked one and one with the ema. I'm not convinced its necessary. I like it from the standpoint that I know almost everyone else that day trades has a 5m with a 20EMA on it....so from that perspective its good to see what others might be thinking but from a strict trading standpoint, is it needed?

Your thoughts???????????

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #223 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Quick question, are you considering dropping the ema from your charts? I've been looking at a naked one and one with the ema. I'm not convinced its necessary. I like it from the standpoint that I know almost everyone else that day trades has a 5m with a 20EMA on it....so from that perspective its good to see what others might be thinking but from a strict trading standpoint, is it needed?

Your thoughts???????????

I have thought the same thing. Is it necessary? Truthfully on the matter, not really... If eveyone else is using it, whats the harm? use it mostly for a visual reference, but I could likely do without it.

The same is true for drawing and redrawing trend lines, and lines of Support/resistance. Usful as a visual reference, but not strickly necessary, at least to my way of thinking. I guess the best explanation is that how can an indicator, of historical prices, be a predictor of future prices? Simply it cannot. But the the same can be said of any indicator. Thats why on all Mutual Funds prospectuses is the disclaimer "Past performance is not an indication of future results" This time it could be different.

Trading is more about psychology. not only your own, but that of the other market participants. Where do they see support and resistance? can I figure out what the crowd is doing or going to do, and do the oppoosite? At least more times right than wrong, or at least enough right, that I can get a good profit to make up for the times I am going to be wrong. And I am going to be wrong. Thats the art behind the science, and the reason I am a discrestionary trader. That, and the fact my programming skils are pathetic.

I think, as we have chatted about briefly, Market Profiling has some benefit for me in that it has helped me put the market into an understandable context for me. At least today it did, and these last few weeks as I have become more familiar with it. I am bulding my own charts for that pupose, but, my bread and butter is the 5 minute, 20 EMA. Really, its been the only chart I have used for months, and I see no reason to change. I llok at a 30 minute to see previous histoirical prices, just to see where price has been, and perhaps could go again.

I know this is a long winded answer, but you touched on something that have have given more than a little thought to.

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  #224 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Always begin a new week full of optimism. What is going to happen this week?

I was at the airport yesterday. A friend of mine is coompleting the finishing touches on his airplane that he has had rebuilt, and is preparing for a check ride. Its a 1961 Mooney, but it has been gone through prop to tail. new or rebuilt everything. Very cool, but awfully small cockpit. It has 210 HP, and crusies at around 175 miles and hour. He will get his airworthyness certificate this week. I always wanted to get my pilots liscence, and I still may, if I can convince my wife. She hates flying. Maybe he will sell me a half share of his plane. Its an excellent cross country plane...maybe after a few hundred more positive trading days

A profitable trader needs to be confident. Confident that the trades will be there, that the setups will be clear, and that he will continue to be profitable. Confident that he has an edge, that will allow him to earn a living. Otherwize, what would be the point? Why would anyone want to sit staring at monitor unless it wasnt means to an end? Simply, a trader has to have a plan. A trading plan, a money management plan, a life plan.

I did ok today. Really only 2 bg moves for me on the CL.

6 trades today. 1st was a BE, then I was expecting a move higher, but I was a little early so I got stopped out. I hate when that in the first hour...stopped out I mean. 2nd trade -16

I saw the strength of the bulls come in, but I wasnt completely convinced. Neither were they, cause it was working its way down, slowly. Aggressive on my stop, as i took profits when it apeared the bulls ran out of gas. +11+6

2 legs down, took trade at 10:07:41. 2 legs down and 2nd entry long. +11


9:48:55 I went long, off of what I saw was support, and after I saw the retest of 105.58. Held the trade till 11:22:22. Almost an hour. That was it for the session, as I had an appointment shortly after noon, and I had no more time for another trade.

This was my best trade, as I felt I exersized patience

BE-16+11+6+11+26=+38

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Always begin a new week full of optimism. What is going to happen this week?

I was at the airport yesterday. A friend of mine is coompleting the finishing touches on his airplane that he has had rebuilt, and is preparing for a check ride. Its a 1961 Mooney, but it has been gone through prop to tail. new or rebuilt everything. Very cool, but awfully small cockpit. It has 210 HP, and crusies at around 175 miles and hour. He will get his airworthyness certificate this week. I always wanted to get my pilots liscence, and I still may, if I can convince my wife. She hates flying. Maybe he will sell me a half share of his plane. Its an excellent cross country plane...maybe after a few hundred more positive trading days

A profitable trader needs to be confident. Confident that the trades will be there, that the setups will be clear, and that he will continue to be profitable. Confident that he has an edge, that will allow him to earn a living. Otherwize, what would be the point? Why would anyone want to sit staring at monitor unless it wasnt means to an end? Simply, a trader has to have a plan. A trading plan, a money management plan, a life plan.

I did ok today. Really only 2 bg moves for me on the CL.

6 trades today. 1st was a BE, then I was expecting a move higher, but I was a little early so I got stopped out. I hate when that in the first hour...stopped out I mean. 2nd trade -16

I saw the strength of the bulls come in, but I wasnt completely convinced. Neither were they, cause it was working its way down, slowly. Aggressive on my stop, as i took profits when it apeared the bulls ran out of gas. +11+6

2 legs down, took trade at 10:07:41. 2 legs down and 2nd entry long. +11


9:48:55 I went long, off of what I saw was support, and after I saw the retest of 105.58. Held the trade till 11:22:22. Almost an hour. That was it for the session, as I had an appointment shortly after noon, and I had no more time for another trade.

This was my best trade, as I felt I exersized patience

BE-16+11+6+11+26=+38

Excellent job...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #226 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Not trading premarket, as the volume is not there, and the RTH provides better signals.

I have the 05-12 contract up, as I wan to watch teh volume. The 05-12 contract dropped 100 ticks right near teh opening. My take on this, after the 04-12 followed, is that heavy selling took place to secure a lower price for long. Missed that entry, as it was unexpected.


5 trades today.

-15+6-15+36+20= +32

Last trade was looking to test 107, in fact I had my target set there.

But, I got taken out on the pullback, but it did work its way to that price, eventually.

Thats the life of a part time trader. I have to go to work for 12:30, and I had to tighten my stop.Would have much rather hung around till 2:30.

Looking at tradng until 2:30 in the near future.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Post script.

i was getting ready to go, and was hurrying to type my journal entry here on futures.io (formerly BMT), and I glace over at my trading computer to see the CL is continuing to climb, and that it went higher after I got stopped on the pull back,

The setuyp, which i didnt take, went higher, so maybe this is going to run to 108.50, and make a run at the highs of last week.

Anyway, after a pullback, at neat the HOD, i see and opportunity for a 2nd entry long. Now, its a distance aaway from the EMA, but it seems to have momentum. I get in with a view that I will bail fast if it stalls. I do, and it does, so I only get 9 ticks. But thats fine with me.

so add 9 more ticks to the days total.

+32+9=+41

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  #228 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Overall, its a tough trading day. Its a week of changes, news today, contract rollover and so on. Meh...not sure ho this affects, I guess I am just too green to really pay much attention to it. I nkow it has an effect, but I guess its better to stay away, like many talk about. But, somebody is trading, beacuse the contracts dont go to 0, so not every trader is following that line of reasoning.

I am spending most of my time working on the emotional side of trading, and not the the technical side. Michael Martin wrote in his book The Inner Voice Of Trading, that each of us, from the time we went to school, have been rewarded for accuracy, for getting things right. We become accustomed to the accuracy model of learning and reward.

Most people are drawn to the how to aspects of trading, versus the innner aspects of emotions and phsychology, which constitute, in Martins words, for 60% to 80% of trading success. If we are unable to take a loss, surrender to the loss, adn e=recognise that losses are in fact a part of trading, we can never be a successful trader. Never... the reason, of course, is that no one can be 100% right, on every single trade.

He uses this illustration. Suppose you were given the choice of 2 exams, and its possible to get more than 100% on the exam. What would you choose?

Exam 1 is 50 true/false questions worth 2 points each, Exam 2 is 4 essay questions worth 30 points each. Would you go for easy 2 pointers where you would get 40 correct, or for 75% accuracy of the essay questions?

Martins students cannot chose 1, they must chose 2. That is the high expected value choice, and in trading, one must make high expected value choices. Outlier events occur daily, that even the best traders miss. Most of the time you will be wrong in your choices. But you cant live with regret. You can still miss out yet be wildly successful.

Martin states this.

1. Trading profiatbly is about mathematical expectation.

2. Knowng yourself is more important than what you know.

The best way to learn how to lower your score in golf, is to practice from the hole backwards. 50% of your strokes are attributed to putting. 2 putts per hole. Spend 50% of your time putting. In fact, spend 80% of your practice on shots from 100 yards in. The other 20% on shots greater than 100 yards, including driving the ball. Its simple mathematics. Focus on the highest value endeavors. Vitually anyone can putt. Its the easiest shot, and the easiest to improve. Next come short shots. Spend you time on the high value activities.

But most new golfers do what? Buy a bucket and try to pound it as far as they can. But hitting the golfball far has very little to do with playing the game of golf well. Its only really 20% of the game. If anyone wants to learn how to break 90 in 30 days or less, send me a PM, i will send you an outline of how to do it, that is 95% successfull, if you do it, or, if you want to do it.

So, how did I do today?

7 trades today.

+1BE-15-13+18+5+6+20=+22

The first 3 trades were really about the fact that I expected support at 106. After 4 trades, I was down 9 ticks.

Passed/missed on the trade after the big HOD candle on the 5 minute. I didnt like the doji on the PB. I was also influenced by the fact that the 2 SL earlier in the session influenced my decision to some degree. Anyway, for my rules, it was still a hard trade to take as it was a hard trade to see.

Looked at 105.80 to 105.70 as support, but was on thin volume, so i was trying to massage a good entry at that level after the report.

Marked a couple of others that were there.

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  #229 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Was trading from 8 to 1:30.

First 2 trades failed.


Trade 3 was a winner for 20 ticks. Trend was down, and I got a good entry.

Nexzt few trades were a grind. Got taken out on the pullbacks, for small winners and BE. But i'll take them. Bull markets often climb a wall of worry.

Then came the 35000 contract dump at 11:30. Who is that? The Chinese, The Arabs, Exxon? Biggest candle I ever saw, real time. I had a trade working long, and of course, I got BE on that.

Sat on my hands for almost an hour, trying to figure out what I just witnessed.

3 more trades after that, when the market seemd to return to rationality. The tails on the next support area was more managable for me. Only 15 ticks tails, not 50.

Last trade was my best trade, 2 legs back to the TL, buying support.

11 trades

-15-15+20+7+11+1BE+13+1BE+8+11+25=+67

Picture of my last trade. Only one I had time for, as I really had to manage every trade very closely.

Today was almost like work.

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  #230 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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nice job buddy!

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  #231 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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If yesterday was tough, today was tougher.

Looking for the long move all day, and when does it happen? just before the close. When I wasnt trading anymore. Goes to show you, maybe its important to trade right to the pit close.

Contracts are split, rollover volume. I am switching on Monday, so today was a day to be selective.

Lots of false starts, and untill 2:20, a tight range on the April contract.

8 trades

-15+6-13-15+12+5+21+10=+11

For the week

Monday 38
Tuesday 41
Wednesday 22
Thursday 67
Friday 11
____________

Total 179
==========

I dont look at my P&L while i am trading, and I only keep tabs on my daily loss limit. I was 1 more losing trade away from it today, as I was -39 after 4 trades.

Protecting ones capital is really important. There are many important things, but protecting oneself against a big losing day has to be up there. I have heard many speakers talk about it. It is so ingrained in the successful professional, that they are not gamblers.

Neither am I. I did, at one time, gamble. Blackjack in Vegas or the Bahamas. You cant get an edge. the house wins.

I am sure there are many that will want to discuss this point, but it a mathematical certainty.

Like winning the 6/46. The expected value of $1 risk is 14.00MM to 1(give or take), therefore for the expected value to equal the risk, the pot has to be 14 MM. Dosnt happen very often. Otherwize, the loterry corporation of ontario wouldnt make any money. And they make a lot of money. in fact, the lottery is like a tax on the poor.

And I dont gamble with friends either, even at golf. Even if it is just a small amount, a few bucks, it creates anxiety in people. And they often get upset. Cant play angry...

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  #232 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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Hey, V... What indy are you using for your Bar Counter?

Keep up the good work ?

Also, would you give me a basic premise for your entries. Your chart is almost identical to my 5min.

Also, Also .... do you glance at any higher time frames? I keep a 15 and Hourly going.

Tia, for any help


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 mrphr 
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Try to learn from the professional floor traders [successful floor traders], and ignore the majority of the rubbish [I would say 99%], and non sense stuff that is on the internet. It is just my opinion, one man's opinion.

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 Private Banker 
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mrphr View Post
Try to learn from the professional floor traders [successful floor traders], and ignore the majority of the rubbish [I would say 99%], and non sense stuff that is on the internet. It is just my opinion, one man's opinion.

I've noticed a majority of floor traders have a hard time transitioning to the screens/up stairs. I would agree that a lot probably have excellent advice on money management, etc. But as far as screen trading methodology goes, many tend to have a hard time there. Of course there are some exceptions.

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 mrphr 
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I've noticed a majority of floor traders have a hard time transitioning to the screens/up stairs. I would agree that a lot probably have excellent advice on money management, etc. But as far as screen trading methodology goes, many tend to have a hard time there. Of course there are some exceptions.

Floors traders at this days are not the same anymore, fact; The floor traders that I have learned things from, can trade from anywhere from the floor, from the screen and from a piece of paper and a pen. They made the transition from the floor to the screen and manly trade from the screen at this days but their background is the floor; And I am talking about those type of floor traders who can trade from anywhere...
But, yes I understand what you are saying.

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  #236 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Ah, the mystery surrounding the floor trader. In the pits, the contact sport of investment. Theres no school like the old school.

Then again, I have heard professional floor traders say that the market they once traded is not the same. Much greater volume, much tighter margins, many more markets. 24 hour trading. And they tell of the challenges of converting to electronic trading, or screen trading, from floor trading. Not to mention HFT's, which can serve to really mess up your day.

Not many floor traders left. In fact, like many things today, the computer is where its at. And to be successful, you have to trade the LCD.

But, the things that will help a trader be profitable are the things that are not exclusive to floor traders. Thats risk management, money mangement, discipline and phsychology. Come to think of it, thats the best recipie for any successfull business.

All one needs to do is see the PBS documentary The Trader that follows Paul Tudor Jones throught the crash of 1986. Floor trading at its finest...of course thats over 25 years ago. Things look a lot different now. And he has to be one of the most succesful traders around. He did it with Elliot Wave Theory. No wonder he dosnt want the video circulated anymore.

Now, all one has to figure out is whether what I am stating is 99% rubbish or 1% gold wrapped around gems of splendid truth.

Tight range day today. Looked for longs all day.

+6-15-15+22-2+10+=+10

108 held for support all day, but volume. What big event will unbalance this market?

+10...not great, but at least I didnt loose today...try again tommorrow.

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 Big Mike 
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I've noticed a majority of floor traders have a hard time transitioning to the screens/up stairs. I would agree that a lot probably have excellent advice on money management, etc. But as far as screen trading methodology goes, many tend to have a hard time there. Of course there are some exceptions.

I have seen this too.

I see them making the same mistakes a new trader would make, becoming too dependent on a bunch of indicators, chasing the market, etc.

They have to re-adjust to find their new way to be in touch with the market, to have their finger on the pulse of the market.

Mike

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  #238 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Well, not an easy day today, espessially if you were looking for support to go higher, which I was. I was a reluctant short seller, but they were my best trades of the day. It was hard to see today, as any expected swing to thge high turned out to be a tiny reversal.

8 Trades. Felt like I was a little behind in reading the tape today.

+2-14(Long)+18+6+21+9-15+10=+37

was a very stutter step market, but if you looked to trade with trend shorts all day, you would have been fine.

It certainly wasnt an easy day...both my losers were long -14 and -15. Saw 106.80 as suppost, and I thought we would make a run at 108.

If i am green, I am happy.

I got 2 shots of my 2 best trades today. I only have a couple of screen shots because I cant do it while the trade is tight and I am managing it as its developing. I can never get a shot of a failed trade, as I am monitoring it from start to finish and I cant take my eyes off the screen. For longer trades, I am profitable, so I can let it go with my trailing stop.

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 VinceVirgil 
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My goal for today was to exhibit more discipline. I seem to see my trade count creeping up, when I really want to keep it down and focus on the very best entries. Ideally, I would like to take less than 7 trades. And hold them longer, give them time to work. In addition, I was determined not to let a failed trade go right to my hard stop, depending on price action. Anyway, that was the plan.

I am trying to develop an edge in trading support and resistance levels. there are the standard levels, like previous highs and lows, as well as areas of consolidation on the left side of the chart, and of course, the 105, 106, 107 where targets and stops are set, a tick or 2 above or below.

Mac at PAT has a chart lesson, and its on the ES, but I look at it every day. Now, he trades the ES with a 2000 tick chart, but I admire teh way he sets his support and resistance levels, and I have adapted it to the CL. i put the levels in where I think they make sense, based on price action on my 5 minute chart.

I didnt trade around the DOE report, for the simple reason though prices worked their way up from the open, they pulled back to the 106.30 level and held there till after the news. I was looking long from 106.30, and and after a small gain, I got a great entry at 11:17:03 long at 106.42.

What was my reasoning for taking this trade, at that point? it was a breakout PB of the EMA, it was a S/R line at 106.40, and it was the beggining of a TL that I drew off the the 106.30 level.

Covered at 11:42:24 at 107.32.

90 ticks. After that trade, I was very happy, maybe a little too happy. So, despite the fact i was thinking short off the high, I decided to call it a day. i didnt want to mess up that great trade by taking a loss.

In addition, I felt I managed it very well, got the most out of the trade. And I took very little heat. My stop was never in jepardy. If only every trade worked out that well.

I took 6 trades today.

-7+9+6-11+14+90=+101

Just writing 90 on a single trade feels unreal.

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  #240 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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I was looking over Michael Martins book The Innner Art of Trading, and an idea I am determined to incorporate into my trading is keeping losses small. It has been Martins experience, that trades that work out, work right from the beginning. Taking losses, in particular, small losses, involes self discipline and surrender, to quickly recognise that the trade is a loser, and to take action to get out. If one is wrong, one can always get back into the trade.

" Winning traders dont waste energy thinking about losing positions. He thinks clearly and focuses on taking the next steps, adding to the winners and taking on new poositions. His portfoliio is in hearmony with his head. His positions and his portfolio are compatible with his goals. They are making money. As a trader, your agins will look like gains on your profit and loss statement when you keep your losses small. "

"The minute you become emotionally attached to a stock(positon) you lose the rationality to keep your losses small. You've become emotionally attached to the outcome."

Seems like very logical thinking to me.

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 VinceVirgil 
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I have been focusing more on the mental side of trading, using Martins book the Inner Voice of Trading.

He puts tremendous emphasis on keeping losses small, with hard stops and in some cases, time stops. If the price hasnt moved for a certain period of time, he closes out the trade. A trade wil ussually start to make money right away.

My focus was on 2 things. Cutting losses before my stop was hit, if the trade didnt appear to be working, and to place my trades right above or below S/R, dependent on price action.

At the open, I missed the big selloff, as it dropped from the pit open. Ther was some news that may have pointed ot weakness, but because price ran up just before the open, off of yeaseterddays low, i felt it better to wait.

Well almost 200 ticks down. Well, after a big move like that, there is generally consolidation, so CL lapsed into a tight range roughly 75 ticks.

I was loking for longs off the bottom, anticipating a swing higher. never really developed before I was finished for the day.


Question: Why should I use you as my broker?

Answer: I will lose you less.

I made a mistake on my 3rd trade. Should neve have gone long there, off that doji... Volume wasnt there, and it went bad right form the beginning. Kind of a hanging out there trade. -16 ticks on that mess.

The other trades I was satisfied with, but after the move, it was a very tight range.

7 trades today.

+8+7-16+13-7+11+15=+31

Apart from the 1 mistake, i am pleased with how it went. not my best, but not my worst either.

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 VinceVirgil 
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I am determined to cut my losses short, and let my winners run.
So today, instead of stubbornly waiting for my stop to get hit, i was more willing to tighten it, based on teh premise that even if the trade is BE, I should consider that a winning trade. Anytime you dont loose money, its a winning trade.

Every trade has a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing. Trading is about mathematical probability, and all successful traders have losing trades. Accpting losses is a big part of successfull trading. If you cannot accept losses, you cannot be a succesful trader. I would argue that ones losing trades tells you more about how to trade successfully than winning trades.

Back in the summer of 2008, my cousin was in China, getting a prototype manufactured for his company for testing. The company wanted to be paid in Euros, not US dollars, which he thought was very strange, because that was the first time they ever requested that. For him, he thought somethng bad was going to happen...So when he got back to Canada, he sold his investments and went to cash. He didnt loose a nickel. How does he descibe it? A fluke, because if he hadnt had that bad feeling, he never would have went to cash when he did.

Did they know something? Donst matter if they did or not. he was in cash when it went down. Sometimes you very best trade is know when to get out.

Today, I had adoctors appointment, so i missed that big outlier in th CL. Would I have been in that trade when it ripped up? Tough one to answer...cant say for sure.

3 trades earlier that were BE before I had to leave.

I had 12 trades total, but 7 were scratch trades, and they were really attached to the trades that I actually listed. its a little differnt method that wnhat i ahve been doing, but i am trying to illiminate big losing trades. If i keep my losses small, the gains wil take care of themselves.

So, with that criteria in mind, i had 6 trades.

+48

Monday +10
Tuesday +37
Wednesday +101
Thursday +31
Friday +48
---------------------
Total +227
----------------------

Almost 30% my total for the week was on a single trade.

33 trades this week, just over 6 a day.

Trading right around 70% winners/losers. But that is a little misleading, because a BE trade is considered a winning trade.

Average loser is slightly bigger than my average winner. Dont know if that is a significant statistic, because winning trades take into consideration BE trades. So whether its a 1 tick winner, or a 50 tick winner, the magnitude isnt a consideration.

I am pleased with how things went this week. i have a coue of areas I would liek to improve on. Having trouble finding another broker. Its partially a Canada thing and a timing thing.

And a coule of computer issues I need to resolve. Might get another computer, to use a backup. Right now I have a laptop for that, but it needs to be upgraded.

Chart attached.

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 Big Mike 
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Enjoy your weekend,
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 VinceVirgil 
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I wont be able to trade tommorrow, but I wil replay the day tommorrow evening prior to reviewing any posts by way of practice.

I am involved in some volunteer work, and I have decided to take tommorrow off to particpate, to a larger degree. I do volunteer on a weekly basis, but tommorow I will be starting early and will be busy all day. I wont be able to be at my investment office tommorrow afternoon either, as my assistant will cover for me tommorrow. I will be heading north of where I live, and if you see it on a map, it way out of even cellphone distance. Its, Armstrong, Ontario , Canada. If you use google earth, you will have some idea gow how isolated it really is, considering the area. Northewestern Ontario is an area larger than the state of Texas, but the population is less than a 500,000. Its great if you like the outdoors.

I am going to set up an LLC for my trading business. Canadian rules are similar to US rules, therefore, if I set up an LLC for trading, the income I earn from investments I can split with my wife and children by paying them a reasonable salary. In addition, i can buy my cars and insurances through the company, and only pay taxes on the personal use of the vehiclesThere are significant benefits to operating this way. Virtualy all business related expenses are tax deductable to the LLC. Of course, a business tax returns, in addition to personla retunrs, has to be filled yearly.

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 VinceVirgil 
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True to what I was doing, I was away from my office all day. Left at 7 am, got back at 6pm, had dinner, and then I recorded and replayed the days activities, taking trades as if it was live real time off off my replay.

Well not the whole day, I am too tired as it is after 9, and you can stick a fork in me cause I am done.

Had to get my trading computer redone on the weekend. Windows had to be reloaded. There were a couple of issues, including webinar and skype and file download issues, so i had it gone over, Of course, now I have to set up all my charts and templates from my files. What a chore! Note to self, Get and set up a parallel trading computer a mirror of desktop I am using to insure redundentg sytems like email addresses and chart histories. All that stuff diacppears when a harddrive is formatted, but you all know this right?

Gonna take few nights to get it setup. going to get a laptop as a backup, the one I am using is too slow. Likely and I5 with more ram and a better video card.

So I traded the replay like it was live...seems like ti worked ok.

Started the tape at 8:15 am and placed my last trade after 9.

My replay record.

6 trades

+11+6+3-11+20=+29

Had enough as it been a very long day. Gonna have a cold beer, play my guitar a bit, then hit the sack.

Tommorrow is gonna be a big day.

Heres my charts.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Back at my monitor for 8:15 today. Ready to go, have my computer set up and I itching to get going...but...I have some electrical panel problem.

Keeps spiking and kicking in my surge protector and kicking me off line. So I am using my laptop instead, my backup computer.

Its OK for the first 90 minutes, then my modem kicks out. Its a sticking circuit breaker. Making some noise, so I have to get an electrician in replace the breaker. I turned it off and on a couple of times, and it seems to be OK now, but I still need to have some one check it out. Ah the joys of home ownership. Last week it was the computer module in the furnace, this week, a circuit breaker.

Another tight range day as of this writing. I was more consious of the ticght range anfter the opening, and the lack of volume, and I traded with that in mind. All in the interest of only taking what the market is giving.

4 trades today. Missed a nice setup around 9:35 as I took a long distance call from Korea. I ame back to see a pretty good move in the CL. Cant win them all. If I am willing to take phone calls during my active screen time, I have to miss out occassionally. no sense in getting upset about it...

I like to think of myself as a practical minded person. Everything we decide to do costs something...in time, which, in my opinion, is the most precious asset.

So if I am going to spend my time trading, it has to be beneficial. It has to pay, it has to be profitable. And it has to stay profitable. Otherwise, its a waste of time.

If one isnt profitable trader, you should figure out how to get profitable. The only way I can learn how to be profitable trader is to emulate profitable traders. Can you be a clone? Likely not. At least it dosnt appear to be the case. One can use, or borrow someones experience, but ultimately, one has to gain their own experiences and come to grips with what they want to do, and how they want to do it. I dont think that means that you must blow up an account to be successful, or lose thousands of dollars in order to pay your dues. The thought that one has to experince significant loss in order to experience trading success dosnt seem right. It may serve to strengthen ones resolve to do better next time, but, it is as likely to cause someone to quit alltogether, and seek to do something else with ones time.

One trader wrote that if one is going to treat trading as a hobby, then you will lose money. Go to Las Vegas instead. Its more fun and the food is better.

If, however, you treat trading as a profession, which it is, you have to become a professional. That means a professional education, professional training and a professional income from the activity. Seems logical to me.

4 trades today.

-13+27+8+15=+37

First trade, it was pre market, hadnt really formed the bottom as I tried to get in early on what I expected was a double bottom. It was a reasonable theory in hind sight, as I caught a good trade a few minutes later, but I had bad entry that pulled back and hit my stop. I closed it out because I recognized immediatly how bad a trade i made, and, as we all know, just because we can see in hindsight it turned around and strated higher, in real time, the bottom could have easily have fallen out.

One take away from FT71 webinar that I have found helpful is the concept of putting my limit orders in logical areas. Instead of waiting for the close of the signal bar, or confirmation, it makes more sense to place them in areas where buyers or sellers are going to waiting, and then getting on the right side of them. What buyers and sellers? high volume ones of course. Still figuring that out.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Trended down, chopped around in a narrow range, then rose.

Traded what I saw...

-13+33+8+15=+43

I'll answer any questions, to the best of my ability, as long as I don't incriminate myself.

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  #248 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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First 3 trades were winners, but only marginally so. All were longs, so I was expecting we might see a
bull trend day, but I was open to whatever developed.

I missed the big down trend in the CL this morning. I was thinking anout it and I almost took the short when price paused at the EMA. It just didnt feel right, so I didnt take it.

My internet connection was intermitant after that, and I could not figure out why. But my data feed would drop on my trading computer, but not on my backup laptop. Of course the last thing I want to do is to have my connection go out in the middle of a trade. i felt it better, given the situation, to wait to see if the problem corrected itself after i rebooted the computer a couple of times. It seems to, but by then, most of the move was over, so i missed most of it. I was looking for a reversal off the daily low, but the best I could do was a little 4 tick BE trade that I had working for almost an hour before I had to call it a day.

I am seriously thinking of ngetting a second computer, with a second modem and data feed in the interest of redundency.

Anyway, I had 4 trades today.

+12+6+18+4=+40

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 VinceVirgil 
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Didnt get started till after 9:30, as I had a few things to take care of first thing this morning.

I wasnt expecting much today, after the big trend down yesterday, so i thought that today would likely be a range day.

First trade was a short, that I got for 22 ticks. I bought blind on the pb after the bear bar. In fact, I have been attempting to buy support and sell resistance where I see it on the 5 minute based on PA. I am getting more confortable with the process.

7 trades

+22+21-16+20+14+27= +88

For the week

Monday replay +29 (Will not count in the total for the week)

Tuesday +37
Wednesday +43
Thursday +40
Friday +88
--------------------
Total +208
===========

Going to work on holding trades longer, in the future.

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 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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  #251 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Big Mike View Post
Congratulations on your journal!


A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?


1. It forces me to be accountable. If I have to speak about my experiences publically, it as helped me to carefully think before I act throughout the trading day. There are more than a few times where this has prevented me from making a questionable decision.

2. Provides a record of my trading tendencies,patterns and emotions that I can review and adjust or correct.

3. Enabled me to clarify trading strategies and provides me with peer feedback.

4. Helped to create common ground with fellow traders and to collectively share new ideas and opportunities that I was previously unaware.

5 Has served as a conduit to gain greater understanding of the the derivatives market and greater insight into the mind of the retail trader.


B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?


1. I find at times getting stale in my posting, and feel I dont have any new ideas.

2. Reluctance to tell everything about my trading for fear I will sound like I am insincere or, I come across as a braggart, or worse, particularily in a public forum. Or fear I will lose my edge if I reveal too much.

3. I find it a challenge to not respond to queries or statements from individuals who have a limited view of trading/investing or business. Exersizing restraint in not telling some what I really think. One particular request that i find particularily idiotic, is the insistance that a trader must have documented proof of success before their comments or observations are considered valid. I cant beleive a knucklehead made that statement. If there was a blocking feature, he would be my first entry.

4. Lack of others comments or constructive suggestions. (From successfull profitable traders that can provide proof, either from an audited financial statement of their trading activities or from last years audited tax return)

5. Lack of consistency in posting information in an understandable format. I have changed the pattern of my postings a number of times since I started.


C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?


Not really as i was journaling from when I was advisaed to by Big Mike. in fact, he tells everyone to journal, so i took him at his word to do so. i figure that as founder of the forum, and with over 20,000 members, he has tremendous opportunity to see all the common mistakes begginning traders make. Based on that, I felt i should journal. i dont have the statistics, but likely a majority of all successfull traders journal record their trades in some fashion. Its not that you have to journal to be successfull, but, as a begginning day trader, I wanted to do what the successfull majority was doing, and emulate their actions.


D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?


It has been a worthwhile experience. This past month has helped me more consistent as a journaler on this forum, and, this last month has been the best month I have had in trading thus far. i dont think this is a coincidence. I do keep a hardcopy journal in greater detail, but the public journal on this forum has been a benefit.


E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?


Without a doubt I would reccomend one keep a trading journal, either privately or publicaly. If you dont keep a trading journal, it will make your learning curve much steeper. Keeping a trading journal has helped me more than i can put into words, and is a mojor contributing factor to the success I have achieved thus far in trading derivatives, and halped me gain much needed perspective in the Wealth Managment side of investment.

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  #252 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Wasnt sure what the day had in store, but last week, CL was on a definate downward trend. But, I dont thnk the price is going to China, so I was keeping an open mind. I was thinking oil oversold last week.

Reading Mind over Markets again. Skimmed it the first time around, now I am giving it a very studious examination. There are elements of MP that I use in my trading, but I feel that looking at the market in the context of the auction process to a greater degree will help me with my entries and target placement. Lokking at it as an aid to Price Action.

i was fortunate today, as I was able to capture the swing off the daily low as it developed.

5 trades.

First trade was a loser, right around the market open. I still am trying to trade that time, and it seems I get wrong more often than not. Of course, I would not be saying this if it was a winner.

Next 4 were winners.

Trade 4 ran for +70 ticks.

All in all, a very good day.

-15+15+46+70+15=+131

Great way to start the week.

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 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Wasnt sure what the day had in store, but last week, CL was on a definate downward trend. But, I dont thnk the price is going to China, so I was keeping an open mind. I was thinking oil oversold last week.

Reading Mind over Markets again. Skimmed it the first time around, now I am giving it a very studious examination. There are elements of MP that I use in my trading, but I feel that looking at the market in the context of the auction process to a greater degree will help me with my entries and target placement. Lokking at it as an aid to Price Action.

i was fortunate today, as I was able to capture the swing off the daily low as it developed.

5 trades.

First trade was a loser, right around the market open. I still am trying to trade that time, and it seems I get wrong more often than not. Of course, I would not be saying this if it was a winner.

Next 4 were winners.

Trade 4 ran for +70 ticks.

All in all, a very good day.

-15+15+46+70+15=+131

Great way to start the week.

nice job!!

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  #254 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Fairly tight trading range today on the RTH opening, which makes perfect sense given the strong trend up of yesterday.

Daltons book Mind Over Markets can help to give context of a market. It is a general approach which holds some appeal for me, as it provides a framework for macro market understanding. However, Dalton emphasizes that it unlike a historical indicator, it is a forward looking overview to help one anticipate the logical movement of future prices. Thats why it cannot be backtested, as markets are contantly changing, but changing in a way never to be repeated. By applying this set of parameters while trading, one can more accuratly anticipate buuyer and seller tendencies and therfore, place trades with more confidence at key price areas. Of course, one has to develop the skill in doing this, with hours of screen time, to gain the confidence required to apply this methodology to ones trading.

granted, i dont have the 10000 hours of screen time to be a virtuoso, but yesterday, in MP speak was a trend day, on the CL (No surprize there). So what is today? Today is a normal day, range day, or balance day in preperation for news this afternoon. But then again...I only have 100 hours invested in the approach...9900 to go..

I am a price action trader, and tho i havent mentioned it much lately, I am a Al Brooks supporter. The Market Profiling will serve to refine entries and exit prices, and can help me better manage my risk.

It can also help me with trade management, particularily with adding to or scaling into a trade, something I have been meditating on using. This, however, forces me to calculate my risk as perentage of account in my head, as the trade is working. Using a calculator is too slow. So I need to keep to using round numbers, as odd lots force me to use a calculator. And I rather not take my eyes off the screen.

so, how did I do today?

7 rades

+20+12-12+12+59+10+9=110

Took some heat on the trades earlier in the session.

Caught the double bottom at 10:30, and I got a good percentage of that move. My best trade of the day.

Last 2 trades ran out of momnetum, so i closed them both early.

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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A question..


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
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  #256 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
A question..


Is the question about why I took the 2 last longs?

I had moved the tend line (Support). I went long early based on the DB to the left at the price 104.58. First time, it came back, but I had tightened my stop. It happened again on the next bar, and I tightened again.

Thats when I decided to call it a day. I wasnt about to go to the well again.

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
A question..


Here is another chart where i had the original line and my thought on these trades.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Here is another chart where i had the original line and my thought on these trades.

i understand....wasn't sure how much weight you put on the trend line that was broken and the lower low combinations.....I did essentially the same thing a couple bars later but took a loser on it....I spaced out the lower lows and the broken trend line....I THOUGHT I saw another one being broken to the upside there....but it was just the deeper pull back against the down trend.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #259 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
i understand....wasn't sure how much weight you put on the trend line that was broken and the lower low combinations.....I did essentially the same thing a couple bars later but took a loser on it....I spaced out the lower lows and the broken trend line....I THOUGHT I saw another one being broken to the upside there....but it was just the deeper pull back against the down trend.


It was an aggressive trade for me. I called it a day after the second trade, so I wasnt watching a few bars later. As i have mentioned before, i watch how the bars paint on the 5 minute very carefully for my entries. But these last couple of weeks, I am anticipating where price should be. If I can pick up a few ticks on my entries, I find it gets me green faster. It seems to be working, particularily on narrow range days.

I am getting more confortable with the startegy.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Canadian stock market is taking a beating. Why? Because Canada is resourse based, and overnight the price of commodities was down across the board.

Did it go too far? Likely. Where will it turn? Given today is DOE report at 10:30, always causes some crazy things to happen.

I am thnking its oversold, but volume is thin, but I am looking long anyway. 2 winners, and 2 losers. 2nd loser was a bad entry.

Missed the short after the DOE report. I was thinking about my last 2 trades yesterday, and how I was fortunate i was able to scalp a few ticks. I was thinking long, and missed the short setup. That was my 2nd error of the day. The cost was the opportunity lost.

Thats not good. Its very difficult to trade, and even 1 error can be costly. If 1 error cost you 15 ticks, and you have a few errors a week, they cut into your profits significantly.

6 trades

-15+18+19-14+28+24=+60

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 VinceVirgil 
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I was determined not to trade premarket, given the big moves overnight since Monday.

3 trades today

Last trade was for 35 ticks, but I am not satisfied with it. Bought at 101.77, got taken out on the pullback at 102.12. Thing was, I had my stop set at 102.06, and I tightend it, then got taken out. Price then went on to gain 100 ticks on its way to a new high. I had already locked in may profit, so there was really no reason to move my stop, but I was impatient. That was very costly, as it was a missed oportunity.

This a case where my best trade from a monetary standpoint and an entry standpoint failed because of poor management. It was profiatble, but i left far too much on the table.

Warren buffet once stated that his biggest mistakes were ones that no one ever saw. It was the investments he should have made, but didnt. One example was that in the late 60's, when Disney was having trouble, Berkshire Hathaway had the opportunity to buy a big piece of Disney for 15 million. He said they had the money at the time, but he passed on it. He listed that as one of his biggest mistakes in his carreer.

Trades today

11+19+35=+65

For the Week

Monday 131
Tuesday 110
Wednesday 60
Thursday 65
--------------------
Week 366
===========

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 bobarian 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I was determined not to trade premarket, given the big moves overnight since Monday.

3 trades today

Last trade was for 35 ticks, but I am not satisfied with it. Bought at 101.77, got taken out on the pullback at 102.12. Thing was, I had my stop set at 102.06, and I tightend it, then got taken out. Price then went on to gain 100 ticks on its way to a new high. I had already locked in may profit, so there was really no reason to move my stop, but I was impatient. That was very costly, as it was a missed oportunity.

This a case where my best trade from a monetary standpoint and an entry standpoint failed because of poor management. It was profiatble, but i left far too much on the table.

Warren buffet once stated that his biggest mistakes were ones that no one ever saw. It was the investments he should have made, but didnt. One example was that in the late 60's, when Disney was having trouble, Berkshire Hathaway had the opportunity to buy a big piece of Disney for 15 million. He said they had the money at the time, but he passed on it. He listed that as one of his biggest mistakes in his carreer.

Trades today

11+19+35=+65

For the Week

Monday 131
Tuesday 110
Wednesday 60
Thursday 65
--------------------
Week 366
===========

great job Vance...its an inspiration to see!

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  #263 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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I watched the Masters on the weekend. HDTV is remarkable, I could see every blade of grass. I found the playoff a littel anti climactic, as I would rather see a few holes like the other majors. But Watson pulled off and incredible shot to put himself in position to win. I was thinking of the South African. When he saw Watson so far off the fairway, did he think he had it almost in the bag? I think when he hit that second shot, instead of playing to win, he was playing not to lose. Watson played a shot that he was confident he could hit, and whats more, likely a shot he has practiced 1000's of time. No one hits a shot like that if its the first time, and whats more, he had the guts to go for it. It is something I am going to remember for a long time.

Saw the Gary Dayton Webinar on Saturday, and I found some very useful information. Of course, didnt see much of the phsychology side of trading, but the price action ideas were worth the price of admission. And the insight into why he teaches. He teaches to reinforce his own trading ideas. It a form of mindfulness practice. I am going to try that myself.

6 trades today. It was slow going for much of the session, except for a dramatic selloff at 11:00. After that it was a nice treend higher right into the close from arounbd 12:10. Might have some more of that tommorrow.

Anyway, my first 3 trades were BE and and a loss for -16.

But then I got it together, and my next 3 put me into the black.

I had to leave as i had a 2 pm appointment. Should have stayed, as I had thought there was more room on a measure move off the low of the day, and it turns out, there was. But i missed that, which upsets me a bit. Its a great challenge to be profitable, and when there is opportunity, one has to be aware enough to take advantage, because there will be times when the market will not be cooperative. I will consider this mre for tommorrow, as i could have postponed that appointment.

+62 for the day.

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  #264 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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it was a see saw day. Using a 15 ticks stop can be murderous on a day like today, as the noise alone will eat away at your account.

That was the trouble i had today, but then, if I increase the stop, then I may still get nailed on the volatility.

Thought it may be a trend up day, based on the premarket action, but from 9:45 on, price sold off until around lunchtime, then ranged from there on. I guess you could call it a spike and channel.

Missed a short entry, as the bear tails and volume I thout price was going to reverse. When it sold off, I wasnt anticipating that, so i missed most of that move down.

Was thinking swing off the low. Good for 30 ticks, but thats it, as it ran out of gas.

7 trades.

+62 same as yesterday.

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
it was a see saw day. Using a 15 ticks stop can be murderous on a day like today, as the noise alone will eat away at your account.

That was the trouble i had today, but then, if I increase the stop, then I may still get nailed on the volatility.

Thought it may be a trend up day, based on the premarket action, but from 9:45 on, price sold off until around lunchtime, then ranged from there on. I guess you could call it a spike and channel.

Missed a short entry, as the bear tails and volume I thout price was going to reverse. When it sold off, I wasnt anticipating that, so i missed most of that move down.

Was thinking swing off the low. Good for 30 ticks, but thats it, as it ran out of gas.

7 trades.

+62 same as yesterday.

Nicely done....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #266 (permalink)
 TrendTraderBH 
Detroit, Michigan
 
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Hi VV,

I've read through about 1/3 of your journal (first couple pages and last 1/3rd, middle 2/3rds to go) so far and it is very impressive - not only your progress in trading, but the conciseness of your journal (reading it is a great learning experience).

At the beginning of your journal you were looking for a mentor - did you find one? If not, did you mostly lean on futures.io (formerly BMT) for your success?

Have you done a webinar for futures.io (formerly BMT) or have you summarized your strategies and rules?

Thanks again!

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  #267 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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TrendTraderBH View Post
Hi VV,

I've read through about 1/3 of your journal (first couple pages and last 1/3rd, middle 2/3rds to go) so far and it is very impressive - not only your progress in trading, but the conciseness of your journal (reading it is a great learning experience).

At the beginning of your journal you were looking for a mentor - did you find one? If not, did you mostly lean on futures.io (formerly BMT) for your success?

Have you done a webinar for futures.io (formerly BMT) or have you summarized your strategies and rules?

Thanks again!

Thank you for your comments. I find it encouraging when someone takes the time to comment. I am glad you find it helpful.

My success has seemingly been fast, considering that I have only been trading derivatives for less than a year.

But I have spent the majority of my working life in the investment business. I am a liscenced Stockbroker/Wealth Manager on the retail side. (And former Branch Manager). I suppose the experience I gained in investment management has stood me well in trading futures. it is a distiinct advantage, as I have insight into professional investments that the average person does not have access. I can only speak from my personal experience, but I have nothing but admiration for individuals who have come from a different background and trade successfully.

I have been helped by a number of people, and it was from futures.io (formerly BMT) that I made the contacts. So in that sence, I did find a mentor.

I use the resourses from futures.io (formerly BMT) ...webinars, trading journals, indicators etc.

No webinar...thats a ways off...if ever. I have spoken about general strategies and rules, but most of what I use can be found in Al Brooks Price Action, specifically Chapter 1, Chapter 15 and the index of terms. I follow a tight risk management and money management regime.

Also, Van Tharps Supertraders, a couple books on phsychology and most recently, Mind Over Markets, by James Dalton. All these have helped me put trading in perspective.

However, any success I have enjoyed thus far is really irrelevant, as the truely successful trader has longevity, something I decided do not have.

There are traders in this forum that have much expertice and experience in futures. I have a lot more to learn.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Today was a very intersting day.

It seems that a mojority of traders stay away from news, particularily the DOE report, as it can cause some big swings that are unpredicatable.

Today the report is at 10:30 EST, and I had a trade working from 10:03am. All the way up to the half hour, I am going back and forth as to should I or shouldnt I stay in the trade. I am long at 101.42 with a 16 tick stop. I take some off when price is ahead 15 ticks, so I have a postiion that is free. Even if my stop is hit, I will be break even. Of course, there is a risk it could sell right through my stop and not fill. But, i was willing to take that chance.

Well, my stop didnt get hit, and i was able to get 57 ticks out of that trade. Was this a calculated risk or a foolish play? I beleive I would do it all over the exact same way.

Shorted at 10:58:42 at 102.41 +36 ticks. Even though volume was thin, I based this trade on reversal to the EMA.

I was away for an hour, took one more trade late in the session, but I closed it out for +15.

Totaled 8 trades for 136.

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 researcher247 
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Hi,

Thank you for posting your daily journal.

You appear to be a good technical trader (Al Brooks, traditional TA).

May I ask what your goals and plans are for sim trading (# of trades or months consistently following rules) and do you have a trading plan for when you will be trading real money?

You appear to be quite consistent in sim (remarkably so). Is this both technical (mechanical/rule based) and discretionary (feel/experience/gut) trading in sim?

Will you carry either or both into live trading (if you do plan to trade live)?

peace

Hedvig

 
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  #270 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Last night,I went to see Pavlo at the local Auditorium. He has been on PBS, and the Community Audtorium where I live in Canada has world class acoustics. Every single performaer I have seen comments on how good the acoustics are in that place. He was real good. It was a free ticket, and I wouldnt have gone otherwize. Now, I think I might go see him again. He was entertaining.

Price was up significantly overnight on crude, over 100 ticks, so I wasnt sure what to expect. I waited till after the open to see where the volume would be.

The news trade yesterday rattled me a bit. Still thinking about it...

Every trade, there is the element of the unknown attached to it. One cannot know for sure the direction of price, only tenedecies or probabilities. Thats why I beleive that money mangement is vital to successful trading. If you trade your account with too much leverage, you can get in so deep you may not recover. At the same time, in order to enjoy success, one has to be able to seize the opportunity when it appears. Al Brooks calls it rtrading in the fog. There is no black or white, only gray.

Market Profile echos those same sentiments. Trading for me, is more about anticipating where price may migrate to on the time frame i am trading, keeping in mind my capital and my risk.

6 trades today

BE+12+15+40-19+24= +72

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 VinceVirgil 
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researcher247 View Post
Hi,

Thank you for posting your daily journal.

You appear to be a good technical trader (Al Brooks, traditional TA).

May I ask what your goals and plans are for sim trading (# of trades or months consistently following rules) and do you have a trading plan for when you will be trading real money?

You appear to be quite consistent in sim (remarkably so). Is this both technical (mechanical/rule based) and discretionary (feel/experience/gut) trading in sim?

Will you carry either or both into live trading (if you do plan to trade live)?

peace

Hedvig


I beleive my journal has explained all that you ask. My previous journal entries outline everything, therefore, if you go back to the beginning, all your questions should be adequately addressed, as it details my history with investments in general, and my more recent foray into futures trading.

I will not share with you any specifics, as I am currently an investment advisor, and i handle client funds, in both self directed and managed accounts on a non discretionary basis, for the most part. I handle my own investments on a discretionary basis, and because I have a US based account, I do not have to report my personal trades to the security authorities. But all my Canadian based trades, in my Canadain account, are considered Pro trades, and I have to submit the requisite paperwork.

I have been live trading for the majority of my working life. I am profitable as I derive my living from management of financial assets, and I have been doing it longer than I care to remember.

As far as amounts are concerned, when the market fell in late 2008, my client portfolios dropped in value as much as 40%. Thankfully, very little was margined, therfore, no margin calls of any great amount. The fall cost more than a few million in the short term. But Canada recovered quickly in 09 and 10, as we are resource based.

100,000 in an account is not a lot.

Do you see what I am getting at?

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 researcher247 
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Sorry,

I may have confused you with another poster's journal.

My mix up.

peace

Hedvig

 
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  #273 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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researcher247 View Post
Sorry,

I may have confused you with another poster's journal.

My mix up.

peace

Hedvig

No need for apologies. No harm done.

VV

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bwasi
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Quoting 
I beleive my journal has explained all that you ask. My previous journal entries outline everything, therefore, if you go back to the beginning, all your questions should be adequately addressed, as it details my history with investments in general, and my more recent foray into futures trading.

I will not share with you any specifics, as I am currently an investment advisor, and i handle client funds, in both self directed and managed accounts on a non discretionary basis, for the most part. I handle my own investments on a discretionary basis, and because I have a US based account, I do not have to report my personal trades to the security authorities. But all my Canadian based trades, in my Canadain account, are considered Pro trades, and I have to submit the requisite paperwork.

I have been live trading for the majority of my working life. I am profitable as I derive my living from management of financial assets, and I have been doing it longer than I care to remember.

As far as amounts are concerned, when the market fell in late 2008, my client portfolios dropped in value as much as 40%. Thankfully, very little was margined, therfore, no margin calls of any great amount. The fall cost more than a few million in the short term. But Canada recovered quickly in 09 and 10, as we are resource based.

100,000 in an account is not a lot.

Do you see what I am getting at?

You're a big white shark ? and I'm a Nemo
I voted your journal and another one by PW

-b

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 tderrick 
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bwasi View Post
You're a big white shark ? and I'm a Nemo
I voted your journal and another one by PW

-b

Same votes here....


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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 VinceVirgil 
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bwasi View Post
You're a big white shark ? and I'm a Nemo
I voted your journal and another one by PW

-b

Thanks for the vote.

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  #277 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Short day today. Been busy with paperwork and such, and I ussually like to take Fridays off.

At least the afternoon.

4 trades today

-16+16+20+18=38

Middle of session had me confused with big swings on thin volume. Made me think everyone was thinking early weekend. So I shut down after 4 trades as I wasnt feeling the love.

But I had a good week overall.

Monday 62
Tuesday 62
Weds 136 (Still thinking about holding for the DOE report)
Thurs 72
Fri 38
========
Total 370
========

Not changing anything. I am continuing with what I am doing, strickly trading a 5 minute with a 20EMA and previous areas of support using PA as my guide.

I have Momentum charts and a 30 minute that i use to try to see previous areas of support and resistance. I think I can see these areas well, so I am trading based on where i feel they will develop.

One change that I have found very hlepful was to anticipate these areas, and to get ahead of the crowd buy getting my entries in earlier.

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 SteveM 
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Do you trade based on one time frame only or do you incorporate a higher / lower time frame to help understand the entries / exits better ??

Thanks
Steve
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 VinceVirgil 
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SteveM View Post
Do you trade based on one time frame only or do you incorporate a higher / lower time frame to help understand the entries / exits better ??

Hi SteveM,

I base my entries on the 5 minute chart.

When I first started, I used a 1 minute chart, but I was getting chopped to pieces, the dreaded death by a thousand cuts. Big Mike commented early on in my posts about this very subject. I took his advise and went to the 5 minute immediately. Havnt looked back since.

I do look at longer time frame charts, 30 minutes over the last few sessions, in an attempt to get a context as to where support and ressitance may be from previous sessions.

More recently, I added a momentum chart to help get a feel for the direction volume is taking price, particularily when there is a spike. I am encorporating this element in an attempt to add efficeincey to my trading by capturing a greater percentage of the trend. I use elements of market profile as well, but I am in the process of getting another brokerage account and going to Zen/Fire and IQFeed for charting to help me with market profile.

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 TrendTraderBH 
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VV,

Great trading last week. Two questions:

1. Are your numbers based on 1 contract performance? So each "contract" last week yielded 370 points.
2. Have you tracked your first trade of the day performance? Do they have higher odds of being losing trades? I found that this occurs in my trading and have tried different strategies to eliminate or reduce (ie. only trade 1 contract of first trade of day vs. two).

Thanks again!!

 
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  #281 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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TrendTraderBH View Post
VV,

Great trading last week. Two questions:

1. Are your numbers based on 1 contract performance? So each "contract" last week yielded 370 points.
2. Have you tracked your first trade of the day performance? Do they have higher odds of being losing trades? I found that this occurs in my trading and have tried different strategies to eliminate or reduce (ie. only trade 1 contract of first trade of day vs. two).

Thanks again!!

1. Yes.

2. I have tracked that, and I have adjusted my trading accordingly. I was faily active pre market, but I have revised this since looking more closely at MP and volume before the opening. In fact, my pre market trades are in fact more losing or BE trades than after, however, I am now basing earlier trades more on contexr and previous support and resistance, but this is something I am looking at over the last few weeks.

My main strategy is to be more aggressive with closing the trade out in the early going if it is going against me, when possible. My thought is I can always get back in if it developes the way I anticipate.

I enter with a plan, where i think support and resistance is, and I try to visulaize how I think the trading day will develop. This is most critical in the early going, but I also try to be open to adjust my strategy based on the how I see the session developing. Keep in mind, I dont have years of experience with technical trading. I look to the left side of the chart to try to help me with this.

Its really simple, almost embarrasingly so.

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 VinceVirgil 
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VinceVirgil View Post
It seems that a mojority of traders stay away from news, particularily the DOE report, as it can cause some big swings that are unpredicatable.

Today the report is at 10:30 EST, and I had a trade working from 10:03am. All the way up to the half hour, I am going back and forth as to should I or shouldnt I stay in the trade. I am long at 101.42 with a 16 tick stop. I take some off when price is ahead 15 ticks, so I have a postiion that is free. Even if my stop is hit, I will be break even. Of course, there is a risk it could sell right through my stop and not fill. But, i was willing to take that chance.

Well, my stop didnt get hit, and i was able to get 57 ticks out of that trade. Was this a calculated risk or a foolish play? I beleive I would do it all over the exact same way.

I have given this a lot of thought over the last few days, and I have received some comments from a number of reliable sources and the opinion of a trader, whom I repsect, and I have come to the conclusion that holding through the DOE report is not a good strategy.

In this single case, it did work, But the consesus is that its not worth the risk. Traders with signifacantly mnre experience than me agree and inmost cases, having a trade working during the report will hurt more than help, over time.

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 VinceVirgil 
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I have been interested in investements since high school. I dont know why the stock market interested me originally.

I was a cub scout, and in scouts, we would perform certain tasks and receive merit badges. Things like cooking, collecting, knot tying, orientation, camping. Each merit badge was an indication you had aquired a certain priactical skill, and had proven it to the leader. If I was interested in something, I would reaserach the topic, then , if i found it interesting, I would pursue it further untill I attained a level of expertise or untill my curiosity was satisfied.

Money is an abstract objest, and, as I have taught, can take on different form, as there are many different kinds of money.

The monetary system we live in is a system of confidence, one in which we, as individuals, m.ust beleive in for it to function.

Lets take 1 form of money, for example. Specie or currency. Thats the paper money and coinage you have on you right now(or not) Money is a Unit of Exchange. The reson I can buy goods and serveices with the specie I hold is because the person I give it to, in exchange for goods and services, is confident he can exchange it for good and services that he needs and wants. If he didnt feel that way, he wouldnt accept that money for payment. That is often the case in time of hyper inflation.

Money is a store of value. Gold has been used as a unit of exchange for thousnads of years, but it is also intrinsically valuable because of its properties and its rarity. In times of economic distress, poeple buy gold because of the beleif they can store their value. Very popular in the Middle East and China.

2 simple examples.

What most peopel dont think.

Demand deposits are a form of money. Bankers acceptances, letters of credit, bills of lading, prommisary notes, stocks, real estate, livestock, foodstuffs. Bonds and mortgages. Poeple ( think slavery ). How about water? And, of course, derivative investments.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Tight day on the CL. Missed some of the bear move down after the open. Was able to get some of it, but I left some where I could have improved a bit.

Bought support after the selloff. Double bottom from the overnight, and I boughht early. Thought it would be good for small gain at least, and it was.

Was looking for longs after that, as support seemed to be 102.

Long at around 11:40. Was in that trade for some time before I closed it out at 12.46. Then, price broke higher.

One more trade thinking we would break 103.00 and hold, but didnt. 13 ticks there.


6 Trades 71 ticks

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 VinceVirgil 
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In the Bible, the kings of ancient Israel were to write down the law in their own hand when they took the kingship. They didnt have any printing presses, therefore writing on velum was the only method they had for keeping a record. Copyng down the law covenant served the purpose of familiarizing themselves with the law. If you have to copy something down accuratly, you would, by design, become very familiar with it.

I thought that was a good idea, so today, I began manually writing out the print profile on the CL corresponding to a 30 minute chart. It occurred to me that by doing this, i will become more familiar with Market Profile as it develops, and will serve to help me better plan each trade and help me better understand the development of the markets daily structure. I also did it because my desktop is back in the shop, couple of the dreaded bluescreen issues.

Took 6 trades today, but i had to shut it down by noon, as i had appointments this afternoon.

10+13+15-17+12+(BE)= +33

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  #286 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Didnt leave a trade on during the inventory report like last week.

I thought price may try to get back to 103.50 after the overnight and the selloff in the premarket. But I was also awarre that on inventory days, volume is typically thinner. Add that to some volume being siphoned off becuae of the June contract activity, and it adds up to a reson to be catious.

After the report, got short and trade was good for 35 ticks.

3 other trades, a 2 small winner and a scratch. that was it for the session.

4 trades in total.

61 ticks.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Didnt leave a trade on during the inventory report like last week.

I thought price may try to get back to 103.50 after the overnight and the selloff in the premarket. But I was also awarre that on inventory days, volume is typically thinner. Add that to some volume being siphoned off becuae of the June contract activity, and it adds up to a reson to be catious.

After the report, got short and trade was good for 35 ticks.

3 other trades, a 2 small winner and a scratch. that was it for the session.

4 trades in total.

61 ticks.


I must admit, some of your trades mystify me...but they work so who cares right?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #288 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I must admit, some of your trades mystify me...but they work so who cares right?

I'll explain what I saw. My first trade was an entry at 103.80 long at 9:25. I had my SL at 20 ticks, with my first target of 20 ticks. I moved the S/R line before I saved my chart, my original line was 103.73. Might have made more sence there.

I saw as 103.50-103.60 as support, and I felt the range could extend higher. But like inventory days, volume isnt real big ussually before the news, so I was going to close it aggressively if buyers didnt come in. Closed it at 9:41 for the 11 ticks. The BE was another attempt to anticipate a spike before the repert, but I closed it as a scrsatch trade. That was it till aftert ther report.

My third trade I was still looking for a long at the double bottom at 11:00. When momentom and volume came in, I jumped in front of the train, once it broke 103.50.

My last trade was a long early after the exhaustion of the climax of the selloff, and it failed to go lower the second time. If it tests and fails twice, its likely to head in the other direction. After that price rotated around 102.60.

Not sure if this makes sense, but that was my reasoning for those trades.

It is interesting, as I have to admit, I dont always understand what other traders are seeing when they trade. For instance, when traders say tehy only trade with trend, I dont understand that they cant see a countertrend or reversal. If you see a trend clrearly, then you can recognise when there isntone, and therefore, it has to be q countertrend.

Then again, some time I miss obvious trends, or I dont identify them early enough, something i am working on.

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  #289 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
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Yesterday, PW mentioned that some of the trades i took were somewhat mystifying.

I was thinking that something that seemed very clear to me would be unexpalnable to another trader, and I think that shouldnt be the case.

I havnt made any changes to my entry chart in some time. I use the 5 minute, i have a volume up down indicator, an EMA 20(which I use only for reference, not strickly for entries and exits)

But, I do look at a 5 momentum chart, a 30 minute chart, which have other indicators.

Lately i have been using the DOM on Ninja Trader. I am manually making a MP print profile on graph paper as the session progresses, and i am encorporating these elements into my trading. This is helping me refine my entries and exits, i feel, but this is a new develpoment as I try to expand my understanding of treating the market as an auction. I beleive this is the best method for attempting to define the market and therefore better anticipating where price is heading based on price, time and volume.

Price rotated around 102.60 in the yesterday afternoon. Overnight was around 103.00. Yestrerday morning, price got to 103.70, but because of the oil report, volume wasnt very heavy. Plus, it is contract rollover week, and because volume is above the May contract, I switched to the June contract.

What was my plan? I beleived we could test the lows of yeasterday, 102.20. If we got that low, depending on volume, we coule come back to 103.70 area. At least that was my plan.

My first trade was a short...failed...Actually, I moved my stop to loose 10 ticks because the next bar started bearish, then reversed itself strongly.

-10

Now, because it reversed, I beleive that this indicate long, with the 103.60 target. Pull back hits me.

+15

Trade 3 second entry long. Gets green 11 tciks, and I let it come back, not all the way. I close it out at -8.

-8

Trade 4 I have support at 102.90, and after price fails to go lower, I have my order at 102.90. Does an about face right at my target for +15.

+15

Trade 5 Price collapses from there, and because I am thinking long, I wait to see if support develops, and where. I think lower level support will be 102.60, but price is collapsing on volume, and gets to 102.40ish. I saw the auction taking price lower, and failing, and as a 2nd entry long opportunity at 102.68. I mover my target higher, moved my stop to +10 and got stopped on the pullback. I thougt this was going to go. My reasoning was that I could always get back in.

+10

Trade 6 Second entry long, 102.83. My order is sitting there and fills and price runs higher. Moved my target up, and moved my stop in incriments. Trailing stop hit at 103.17.

+34

Total +56

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  #290 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
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Done for the day. Actually, was really done for the day at just after 9:20am, which is a first.

2 trades.

I got 64 ticks on my first trade.

Long at 103.86 out at 104.50.

After that trade, watched for an hour. Volume tailed off significantly, and was looking for another entry.

Trade 2 was BE -2 on slippage.

I am done. After 10:30 on Fridays, the going gets pretty slow.

+62 would take that every day, if I could be finished by 9:30 am.

2 trades +62

Monday 71
Tuesday 33
Wednesday 61
Thursday 56
Friday 62
-------------------

Total 293
===========

Things I am looking to improve.

How to recoginise volume and to anticipate when price is reaching acceptance or is being rejected, and how to identify this in a dynamic enviornment, real time.

I am hoping FT71 webinar will help me in this area.

And thanks to those that voted for me in futures.io (formerly BMT) challenge. I got 5th place.

And congratulations to the other winners. I havnt read them all, but now I am sure to look at them now.

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  #291 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
...How to recoginise volume and to anticipate when price is reaching acceptance or is being rejected, and how to identify this in a dynamic enviornment, real time.
...

You might like to read these articles by Lance Begg

on acceptance:
When Does The Trend Change? | Articles-Technical-Analysis

on Volume:
Volume Analysis - The YTC Way | Articles-Technical-Analysis

Easy to grasp.

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  #292 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
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trendisyourfriend View Post
You might like to read these articles by Lance Begg

on acceptance:
When Does The Trend Change? | Articles-Technical-Analysis

on Volume:
Volume Analysis - The YTC Way | Articles-Technical-Analysis

Easy to grasp.

Thanks for this...will be sure to read them.

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  #293 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Advanced
 
Posts: 426 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 257 given, 751 received

Hola,

Do you have any stats on your CL trading you write about?

Longer-term?

500+ trades or what you consider statistically significant?
------------------
You work off of fixed-time interval charts--never met a trader (except 1 or 2 lot) that wins more than 90% of their trading days on any particular instrument of choice.

I had 2 consecutive losing days this week (Wed/Thur). Been over 92 trading days since I had 1%+ each day 'on margin' consecutive losing days. I trade 6E from 7am up to 8:50am est and CL from 9am up to 10am est and NQ from 10am up to 10:58am est.

I use volume charts.

You are a consistent pimp! You must be pretty satisfied with being one of the few that took Al Brooks stuff and made it work for you, eh?

I recall working with only 2 other traders that each had their own 'efficient/unique' trading approach (1 or 2 lots in various markets) and just hit singles/doubles and sometime triples nearly every damned day.

Fwiw--you are trading the absolute correct market to make ticks in--big waves in CL since '04 on a daily basis.

I get very nice signals on longer-term timeframes (risk over 28cents--that is my limit) for +.75 up to $1.25 targets; however I am more like the following quote I posted late last year on the forum. I trade (for me) size on shorter time frames in liquid/volatile/a.m.-oriented markets.

"I really do identify with the sneaky raccoon; I nibble on several markets everyday--never monogamous to any particular timeframe (I use alot of discipline lately and watch 4-5 timeframes intraday in each market), though fast volume charts seem to be my preference lately."

Have a smooth weekend!

peace

Hedvig

 
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  #294 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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researcher247 View Post
Hola,

Do you have any stats on your CL trading you write about?

Longer-term?

500+ trades or what you consider statistically significant?

Link #196

Private Banker commented on my chart, and his insight helped me significantly. he helped me to look at volume on the 5 minute where price is accepted or rejected, which gave me greater insight into price action.

His post to me also helped me to build my strategy to incorporate more of the trend, or countertrend.

Therfore, my statistics are largerly based on the approach from that date.

I look at individual bars on the 5 minute, but more importantly, I remember how they paint. I beleive this is what Al Brooks talks about when he says each individual bar is a trading range. 2 bars may look exactly the same on completion, but how they arrived at that final shape can give an indication how the next bar will develop. A bar that paints down and then up and closes is different from one that paints up, down, up, down, and up again to close.


253 trades

72.92% ratio

184 winners (Winners also include BE or scatch trades, so not sure how this affects numbers)

64 losers

average of 5.88 trades per day

Average win to average loss 1.05

Profit factor 2.79

The last 3 weeks have been my best weeks ever. I have begun using more MP in my trading and it seems to be helping with my entries and exits, but I have little experience with it thus far. I am still working on it to enhance my trading.

I sit down with the expectation that I will be profitable over time, and that I will only take what the market is going to give me that session. I try to maintain my objectivity throughtout the session.

I also keep my risk of 1% to 2 % of my account. My SL is generally 15 ticks, but I will go slightly higher if I feel it is warranted.

I beleive risk and money management are vital to successful trading.

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  #295 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
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VV, Great job! I'm really impressed with your trading right out of the gate. Glad I've been able to help along the way.

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  #296 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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Private Banker View Post
VV, Great job! I'm really impressed with your trading right out of the gate. Glad I've been able to help along the way.

Thank you for the compliment

You have been a considerable help. Your real world investment experience on the wealth management side really struck a chord with me. Many of your insights I have adapted and have found to be beneficial.

Panda Warrior has also been a big help. His suggestions when I was first starting out in CL (some months back) was just the right encouragement at the right time. If it wasn't for him, I think I would still be scratching my head over the ES. He taught me that the instrument has to match your temperament as a trader.

Big Mike in addition. For the forum, of course, but also for his timely suggestions and for arranging the Webinars that I have found very useful. To purchase all this information of the shelf even to try it out would be a monumental task.

Its been great. Thanks.

VinceVirgil

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