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This is good advise, so I will follow it...
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This is good advise, so I will follow it...

  #281 (permalink)
Elite Member
Toronto, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
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TrendTraderBH View Post
VV,

Great trading last week. Two questions:

1. Are your numbers based on 1 contract performance? So each "contract" last week yielded 370 points.
2. Have you tracked your first trade of the day performance? Do they have higher odds of being losing trades? I found that this occurs in my trading and have tried different strategies to eliminate or reduce (ie. only trade 1 contract of first trade of day vs. two).

Thanks again!!

1. Yes.

2. I have tracked that, and I have adjusted my trading accordingly. I was faily active pre market, but I have revised this since looking more closely at MP and volume before the opening. In fact, my pre market trades are in fact more losing or BE trades than after, however, I am now basing earlier trades more on contexr and previous support and resistance, but this is something I am looking at over the last few weeks.

My main strategy is to be more aggressive with closing the trade out in the early going if it is going against me, when possible. My thought is I can always get back in if it developes the way I anticipate.

I enter with a plan, where i think support and resistance is, and I try to visulaize how I think the trading day will develop. This is most critical in the early going, but I also try to be open to adjust my strategy based on the how I see the session developing. Keep in mind, I dont have years of experience with technical trading. I look to the left side of the chart to try to help me with this.

Its really simple, almost embarrasingly so.

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  #282 (permalink)
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VinceVirgil View Post
It seems that a mojority of traders stay away from news, particularily the DOE report, as it can cause some big swings that are unpredicatable.

Today the report is at 10:30 EST, and I had a trade working from 10:03am. All the way up to the half hour, I am going back and forth as to should I or shouldnt I stay in the trade. I am long at 101.42 with a 16 tick stop. I take some off when price is ahead 15 ticks, so I have a postiion that is free. Even if my stop is hit, I will be break even. Of course, there is a risk it could sell right through my stop and not fill. But, i was willing to take that chance.

Well, my stop didnt get hit, and i was able to get 57 ticks out of that trade. Was this a calculated risk or a foolish play? I beleive I would do it all over the exact same way.

I have given this a lot of thought over the last few days, and I have received some comments from a number of reliable sources and the opinion of a trader, whom I repsect, and I have come to the conclusion that holding through the DOE report is not a good strategy.

In this single case, it did work, But the consesus is that its not worth the risk. Traders with signifacantly mnre experience than me agree and inmost cases, having a trade working during the report will hurt more than help, over time.

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  #283 (permalink)
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16.4.2012


I have been interested in investements since high school. I dont know why the stock market interested me originally.

I was a cub scout, and in scouts, we would perform certain tasks and receive merit badges. Things like cooking, collecting, knot tying, orientation, camping. Each merit badge was an indication you had aquired a certain priactical skill, and had proven it to the leader. If I was interested in something, I would reaserach the topic, then , if i found it interesting, I would pursue it further untill I attained a level of expertise or untill my curiosity was satisfied.

Money is an abstract objest, and, as I have taught, can take on different form, as there are many different kinds of money.

The monetary system we live in is a system of confidence, one in which we, as individuals, m.ust beleive in for it to function.

Lets take 1 form of money, for example. Specie or currency. Thats the paper money and coinage you have on you right now(or not) Money is a Unit of Exchange. The reson I can buy goods and serveices with the specie I hold is because the person I give it to, in exchange for goods and services, is confident he can exchange it for good and services that he needs and wants. If he didnt feel that way, he wouldnt accept that money for payment. That is often the case in time of hyper inflation.

Money is a store of value. Gold has been used as a unit of exchange for thousnads of years, but it is also intrinsically valuable because of its properties and its rarity. In times of economic distress, poeple buy gold because of the beleif they can store their value. Very popular in the Middle East and China.

2 simple examples.

What most peopel dont think.

Demand deposits are a form of money. Bankers acceptances, letters of credit, bills of lading, prommisary notes, stocks, real estate, livestock, foodstuffs. Bonds and mortgages. Poeple ( think slavery ). How about water? And, of course, derivative investments.

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  #284 (permalink)
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16.4.2012

Tight day on the CL. Missed some of the bear move down after the open. Was able to get some of it, but I left some where I could have improved a bit.

Bought support after the selloff. Double bottom from the overnight, and I boughht early. Thought it would be good for small gain at least, and it was.

Was looking for longs after that, as support seemed to be 102.

Long at around 11:40. Was in that trade for some time before I closed it out at 12.46. Then, price broke higher.

One more trade thinking we would break 103.00 and hold, but didnt. 13 ticks there.


6 Trades 71 ticks

Attached Thumbnails
This is good advise, so I will follow it...-cl-05-12-5-min-final-recap-16_04_2012.jpg  
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  #285 (permalink)
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17.4.2012

In the Bible, the kings of ancient Israel were to write down the law in their own hand when they took the kingship. They didnt have any printing presses, therefore writing on velum was the only method they had for keeping a record. Copyng down the law covenant served the purpose of familiarizing themselves with the law. If you have to copy something down accuratly, you would, by design, become very familiar with it.

I thought that was a good idea, so today, I began manually writing out the print profile on the CL corresponding to a 30 minute chart. It occurred to me that by doing this, i will become more familiar with Market Profile as it develops, and will serve to help me better plan each trade and help me better understand the development of the markets daily structure. I also did it because my desktop is back in the shop, couple of the dreaded bluescreen issues.

Took 6 trades today, but i had to shut it down by noon, as i had appointments this afternoon.

10+13+15-17+12+(BE)= +33

Attached Thumbnails
This is good advise, so I will follow it...-cl-05-12-5-min-final-recap-17_04_2012.jpg  

Last edited by VinceVirgil; April 17th, 2012 at 11:14 PM.
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  #286 (permalink)
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17.4.2012

Didnt leave a trade on during the inventory report like last week.

I thought price may try to get back to 103.50 after the overnight and the selloff in the premarket. But I was also awarre that on inventory days, volume is typically thinner. Add that to some volume being siphoned off becuae of the June contract activity, and it adds up to a reson to be catious.

After the report, got short and trade was good for 35 ticks.

3 other trades, a 2 small winner and a scratch. that was it for the session.

4 trades in total.

61 ticks.

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This is good advise, so I will follow it...-cl-05-12-5-min-final-recap-18_04_2012.jpg  
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  #287 (permalink)
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VinceVirgil View Post
Didnt leave a trade on during the inventory report like last week.

I thought price may try to get back to 103.50 after the overnight and the selloff in the premarket. But I was also awarre that on inventory days, volume is typically thinner. Add that to some volume being siphoned off becuae of the June contract activity, and it adds up to a reson to be catious.

After the report, got short and trade was good for 35 ticks.

3 other trades, a 2 small winner and a scratch. that was it for the session.

4 trades in total.

61 ticks.


I must admit, some of your trades mystify me...but they work so who cares right?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
  #288 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I must admit, some of your trades mystify me...but they work so who cares right?

I'll explain what I saw. My first trade was an entry at 103.80 long at 9:25. I had my SL at 20 ticks, with my first target of 20 ticks. I moved the S/R line before I saved my chart, my original line was 103.73. Might have made more sence there.

I saw as 103.50-103.60 as support, and I felt the range could extend higher. But like inventory days, volume isnt real big ussually before the news, so I was going to close it aggressively if buyers didnt come in. Closed it at 9:41 for the 11 ticks. The BE was another attempt to anticipate a spike before the repert, but I closed it as a scrsatch trade. That was it till aftert ther report.

My third trade I was still looking for a long at the double bottom at 11:00. When momentom and volume came in, I jumped in front of the train, once it broke 103.50.

My last trade was a long early after the exhaustion of the climax of the selloff, and it failed to go lower the second time. If it tests and fails twice, its likely to head in the other direction. After that price rotated around 102.60.

Not sure if this makes sense, but that was my reasoning for those trades.

It is interesting, as I have to admit, I dont always understand what other traders are seeing when they trade. For instance, when traders say tehy only trade with trend, I dont understand that they cant see a countertrend or reversal. If you see a trend clrearly, then you can recognise when there isntone, and therefore, it has to be q countertrend.

Then again, some time I miss obvious trends, or I dont identify them early enough, something i am working on.


Last edited by VinceVirgil; April 18th, 2012 at 11:24 PM.
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  #289 (permalink)
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19.4.2012

Yesterday, PW mentioned that some of the trades i took were somewhat mystifying.

I was thinking that something that seemed very clear to me would be unexpalnable to another trader, and I think that shouldnt be the case.

I havnt made any changes to my entry chart in some time. I use the 5 minute, i have a volume up down indicator, an EMA 20(which I use only for reference, not strickly for entries and exits)

But, I do look at a 5 momentum chart, a 30 minute chart, which have other indicators.

Lately i have been using the DOM on Ninja Trader. I am manually making a MP print profile on graph paper as the session progresses, and i am encorporating these elements into my trading. This is helping me refine my entries and exits, i feel, but this is a new develpoment as I try to expand my understanding of treating the market as an auction. I beleive this is the best method for attempting to define the market and therefore better anticipating where price is heading based on price, time and volume.

Price rotated around 102.60 in the yesterday afternoon. Overnight was around 103.00. Yestrerday morning, price got to 103.70, but because of the oil report, volume wasnt very heavy. Plus, it is contract rollover week, and because volume is above the May contract, I switched to the June contract.

What was my plan? I beleived we could test the lows of yeasterday, 102.20. If we got that low, depending on volume, we coule come back to 103.70 area. At least that was my plan.

My first trade was a short...failed...Actually, I moved my stop to loose 10 ticks because the next bar started bearish, then reversed itself strongly.

-10

Now, because it reversed, I beleive that this indicate long, with the 103.60 target. Pull back hits me.

+15

Trade 3 second entry long. Gets green 11 tciks, and I let it come back, not all the way. I close it out at -8.

-8

Trade 4 I have support at 102.90, and after price fails to go lower, I have my order at 102.90. Does an about face right at my target for +15.

+15

Trade 5 Price collapses from there, and because I am thinking long, I wait to see if support develops, and where. I think lower level support will be 102.60, but price is collapsing on volume, and gets to 102.40ish. I saw the auction taking price lower, and failing, and as a 2nd entry long opportunity at 102.68. I mover my target higher, moved my stop to +10 and got stopped on the pullback. I thougt this was going to go. My reasoning was that I could always get back in.

+10

Trade 6 Second entry long, 102.83. My order is sitting there and fills and price runs higher. Moved my target up, and moved my stop in incriments. Trailing stop hit at 103.17.

+34

Total +56

Attached Thumbnails
This is good advise, so I will follow it...-cl-06-12-5-min-final-recap-19_04_2012.jpg  
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  #290 (permalink)
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20.4.2012


Done for the day. Actually, was really done for the day at just after 9:20am, which is a first.

2 trades.

I got 64 ticks on my first trade.

Long at 103.86 out at 104.50.

After that trade, watched for an hour. Volume tailed off significantly, and was looking for another entry.

Trade 2 was BE -2 on slippage.

I am done. After 10:30 on Fridays, the going gets pretty slow.

+62 would take that every day, if I could be finished by 9:30 am.

2 trades +62

Monday 71
Tuesday 33
Wednesday 61
Thursday 56
Friday 62
-------------------

Total 293
===========

Things I am looking to improve.

How to recoginise volume and to anticipate when price is reaching acceptance or is being rejected, and how to identify this in a dynamic enviornment, real time.

I am hoping FT71 webinar will help me in this area.

And thanks to those that voted for me in futures.io (formerly BMT) challenge. I got 5th place.

And congratulations to the other winners. I havnt read them all, but now I am sure to look at them now.

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This is good advise, so I will follow it...-cl-06-12-5-min-final-recap-20_04_2012.jpg  
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