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I was determined not to trade premarket, given the big moves overnight since Monday.
3 trades today
Last trade was for 35 ticks, but I am not satisfied with it. Bought at 101.77, got taken out on the pullback at 102.12. Thing was, I had my stop set at 102.06, and I tightend it, then got taken out. Price then went on to gain 100 ticks on its way to a new high. I had already locked in may profit, so there was really no reason to move my stop, but I was impatient. That was very costly, as it was a missed oportunity.
This a case where my best trade from a monetary standpoint and an entry standpoint failed because of poor management. It was profiatble, but i left far too much on the table.
Warren buffet once stated that his biggest mistakes were ones that no one ever saw. It was the investments he should have made, but didnt. One example was that in the late 60's, when Disney was having trouble, Berkshire Hathaway had the opportunity to buy a big piece of Disney for 15 million. He said they had the money at the time, but he passed on it. He listed that as one of his biggest mistakes in his carreer.
I watched the Masters on the weekend. HDTV is remarkable, I could see every blade of grass. I found the playoff a littel anti climactic, as I would rather see a few holes like the other majors. But Watson pulled off and incredible shot to put himself in position to win. I was thinking of the South African. When he saw Watson so far off the fairway, did he think he had it almost in the bag? I think when he hit that second shot, instead of playing to win, he was playing not to lose. Watson played a shot that he was confident he could hit, and whats more, likely a shot he has practiced 1000's of time. No one hits a shot like that if its the first time, and whats more, he had the guts to go for it. It is something I am going to remember for a long time.
Saw the Gary Dayton Webinar on Saturday, and I found some very useful information. Of course, didnt see much of the phsychology side of trading, but the price action ideas were worth the price of admission. And the insight into why he teaches. He teaches to reinforce his own trading ideas. It a form of mindfulness practice. I am going to try that myself.
6 trades today. It was slow going for much of the session, except for a dramatic selloff at 11:00. After that it was a nice treend higher right into the close from arounbd 12:10. Might have some more of that tommorrow.
Anyway, my first 3 trades were BE and and a loss for -16.
But then I got it together, and my next 3 put me into the black.
I had to leave as i had a 2 pm appointment. Should have stayed, as I had thought there was more room on a measure move off the low of the day, and it turns out, there was. But i missed that, which upsets me a bit. Its a great challenge to be profitable, and when there is opportunity, one has to be aware enough to take advantage, because there will be times when the market will not be cooperative. I will consider this mre for tommorrow, as i could have postponed that appointment.
it was a see saw day. Using a 15 ticks stop can be murderous on a day like today, as the noise alone will eat away at your account.
That was the trouble i had today, but then, if I increase the stop, then I may still get nailed on the volatility.
Thought it may be a trend up day, based on the premarket action, but from 9:45 on, price sold off until around lunchtime, then ranged from there on. I guess you could call it a spike and channel.
Missed a short entry, as the bear tails and volume I thout price was going to reverse. When it sold off, I wasnt anticipating that, so i missed most of that move down.
Was thinking swing off the low. Good for 30 ticks, but thats it, as it ran out of gas.
I've read through about 1/3 of your journal (first couple pages and last 1/3rd, middle 2/3rds to go) so far and it is very impressive - not only your progress in trading, but the conciseness of your journal (reading it is a great learning experience).
At the beginning of your journal you were looking for a mentor - did you find one? If not, did you mostly lean on futures.io (formerly BMT) for your success?
Have you done a webinar for futures.io (formerly BMT) or have you summarized your strategies and rules?
Thank you for your comments. I find it encouraging when someone takes the time to comment. I am glad you find it helpful.
My success has seemingly been fast, considering that I have only been trading derivatives for less than a year.
But I have spent the majority of my working life in the investment business. I am a liscenced Stockbroker/Wealth Manager on the retail side. (And former Branch Manager). I suppose the experience I gained in investment management has stood me well in trading futures. it is a distiinct advantage, as I have insight into professional investments that the average person does not have access. I can only speak from my personal experience, but I have nothing but admiration for individuals who have come from a different background and trade successfully.
I have been helped by a number of people, and it was from futures.io (formerly BMT) that I made the contacts. So in that sence, I did find a mentor.
I use the resourses from futures.io (formerly BMT) ...webinars, trading journals, indicators etc.
No webinar...thats a ways off...if ever. I have spoken about general strategies and rules, but most of what I use can be found in Al Brooks Price Action, specifically Chapter 1, Chapter 15 and the index of terms. I follow a tight risk management and money management regime.
Also, Van Tharps Supertraders, a couple books on phsychology and most recently, Mind Over Markets, by James Dalton. All these have helped me put trading in perspective.
However, any success I have enjoyed thus far is really irrelevant, as the truely successful trader has longevity, something I decided do not have.
There are traders in this forum that have much expertice and experience in futures. I have a lot more to learn.
It seems that a mojority of traders stay away from news, particularily the DOE report, as it can cause some big swings that are unpredicatable.
Today the report is at 10:30 EST, and I had a trade working from 10:03am. All the way up to the half hour, I am going back and forth as to should I or shouldnt I stay in the trade. I am long at 101.42 with a 16 tick stop. I take some off when price is ahead 15 ticks, so I have a postiion that is free. Even if my stop is hit, I will be break even. Of course, there is a risk it could sell right through my stop and not fill. But, i was willing to take that chance.
Well, my stop didnt get hit, and i was able to get 57 ticks out of that trade. Was this a calculated risk or a foolish play? I beleive I would do it all over the exact same way.
Shorted at 10:58:42 at 102.41 +36 ticks. Even though volume was thin, I based this trade on reversal to the EMA.
I was away for an hour, took one more trade late in the session, but I closed it out for +15.
You appear to be a good technical trader (Al Brooks, traditional TA).
May I ask what your goals and plans are for sim trading (# of trades or months consistently following rules) and do you have a trading plan for when you will be trading real money?
You appear to be quite consistent in sim (remarkably so). Is this both technical (mechanical/rule based) and discretionary (feel/experience/gut) trading in sim?
Will you carry either or both into live trading (if you do plan to trade live)?
Last night,I went to see Pavlo at the local Auditorium. He has been on PBS, and the Community Audtorium where I live in Canada has world class acoustics. Every single performaer I have seen comments on how good the acoustics are in that place. He was real good. It was a free ticket, and I wouldnt have gone otherwize. Now, I think I might go see him again. He was entertaining.
Price was up significantly overnight on crude, over 100 ticks, so I wasnt sure what to expect. I waited till after the open to see where the volume would be.
The news trade yesterday rattled me a bit. Still thinking about it...
Every trade, there is the element of the unknown attached to it. One cannot know for sure the direction of price, only tenedecies or probabilities. Thats why I beleive that money mangement is vital to successful trading. If you trade your account with too much leverage, you can get in so deep you may not recover. At the same time, in order to enjoy success, one has to be able to seize the opportunity when it appears. Al Brooks calls it rtrading in the fog. There is no black or white, only gray.
Market Profile echos those same sentiments. Trading for me, is more about anticipating where price may migrate to on the time frame i am trading, keeping in mind my capital and my risk.
