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This is good advise, so I will follow it...


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This is good advise, so I will follow it...

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  #101 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
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My first trade, got 19 ticks....

Then, I kida thought i could do no wrong...tried to force the next 3 trades, but hit my hard stop eact time.

But, i dint move my stop down. that was my goal for today. To not increase my stop. I could tighten it, but not move it down. in other words, take my full medicine, or bail when it wasnt working out the way i had anticipated.

After 4 trades, i was -8 ticks. 3 x 8 + 3 for commissions.

What did I do wrong? Nothing discernable. my signals were correct, perhaps a little late or early on pulling the trigger, but no ones perfect. So, I thought i was doing OK. In fact, i am trying to embrace my losses. Because, on average, with proper risk management, I will always be profitable. Unless we hve a fundamental shift in the orbit of the earth around the sun. Besides, if that happens, there has to be a way to trade that event as well, if it did occur.

Trade efficiently without emotion. Trade in the moment. Capitalize on the tension between buyers and sellers, and be quick to recognize the differences. Thast why it is so easy to trade in hindsight. Look at a historical chart, the setups are so easy to recognise. here is the entry, pullback dosnt hit my stop, winner...50 ticks. but try that in real time. Not so easily done.

Anyway, after the first 5 trades, i recovered on the next 6. + 39 ticks for the day.

On the day, I grade myself a B-. i kept my emotions in check on my entries and exits. Had a couple of misteps, but I am only really trading 2 setups. When i enter a trade is based on PA, and the area of the chart, and whether the price is near or approaching an area of support or resistance.

So for these last 4 days, i was up a total of 232 ticks.

And this is trading between the holidays, no less. Not a big fan of holidays, so i just choose to ignore them, mostly.

V

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  #102 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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First day back after a few days off. Worked mainly on risk and money management, and given lots of thought to position size. Been trying 2 different methods.

I am aware of total risk in each trade, in fact i find myself calculating and reavaluating every few seconds while I am in the trade. Proper trade size is based on personal preference, however, for me, having 10,000 for every contract traded is reasonable. If I set a stops of between 8 to 12 ticks, averaging 10, that is 1% risk. risk ratio is 1:2 on trade entry typically, however, I will move my stop to breakeven and then attempt to capture a percentage of the move so not to wait out till the last possible tick. if i trade at 50% efficiency, averaging 10 trades, and out of the 50%, I capture 80% of my target, that means 90 ticks. If I hit my full stop on the other 5, thats -50. Therfore, my plan is for 40 ticks a day on 10 trades. that should be average.

I know, its not scientific, and I am using a small sample, based on my personal style. But, I like simple. For me, simple is better, because, I found, that when I added to my charts, i found the noise of it confusing.

So how did I do today?

7 trades today.

-7+18+9+6+8-8+16= +43

Seems that it was close enough today.

Going to get a new journal today , as the one I have is pretty full. In addition, working on an excel spreadsheet to track all my trades at a glance. I am not very computer savy...despite the fact I minored in Computer Science in University. That was longer back then I care to remember, when IBM stated "main frames would never be replaced by the personal computer!" It was true, only 99.9% replaced.

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  #103 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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3 more trades to total 10 for today.

Trade 8. Price at 102.41 CL and i expect it to bounce off EMA 20 to retest the high, or at least capture a portion of it. Stoped ar -8 ticks.

Trade 9. Get back in long at 102.35. Failed 2 times this time -7 ticks.

Trade 10. ok...now its a strong bear on my signal. I take the short, and i get 30 ticks.

How did I feel. Quite calm actually. I quickly recognized that I was wrong in my original assessment, and I was will ing to adjust my postiion to take what the market was willing to give. And I feel pretty good about that.

Its about keeping ones emotions in check.

43 plus 15 = 58

So I netted 15 more ticks. i am happy about that...

Out of the 10 trades, I had losers for -30 ticks. 2 hit my 8 tick SL, 2 I closed at -7 because they werent working out.

I had 6 positive trades. 88 ticks 1 for 30 ticks, 1 for 18, 1 for 16. Those had good momentum.

the other 3 stalled out 9, 7 and 8.

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  #104 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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today was a tough day for me. Distracted? Perhaps, but I didnt feel conmfident like yesterday. I think Al Brooks refers to it as doubting oneself. (Al is a a lot more cryptic than that, if you have ever heard him speak...I think thats what he means) Trading is simple, but it isnt easy. Contradiction in terms? Nope.

Technical setups on time charts have been around for a very long time. Fidelity has a rooom in Boston that tracks every commodity, currency and index in the free world(so I have been told) Fidelity has invited me to Boston to see it, and tour their Head Office, and take in a Red Sox game . I am told the room is remakable, and the charts are hand drawn daily. Not sure how many charts there are, but it has to be a lot.

Anyway, i was a little off today, and I am trying to put my finger on why. I lmit myself to 10 trades, but some days it feels like too many, sometimes it feels like too few.

How did it go today...I have my entries written down, time, thought process, but I just put the more interesting stuff here. I have a hard copy journal that I write in, but this online journal is very helpful.

13 trades.

-7+5+9-6-10+3+10+11-8+2-7-8+29=+23

7 winners and 5 losers...

my biggest mistake was a trade I didnt take. 9:30 was looking for a good entry for a long off the EMA, but I was writing in my journal, and I missed the entry. It was there, had I been watching, I would have caught it. The deep pullback off teh 9:35 5 min on the CL led me into a state of wait and see, however, the momentum was strong, and i took my eyes off for 30 seconds, and i missed it....ran over 100 ticks from the low...oops.

I am trying to guard against the feeling that this is easy, but I do not want to feel that this is impossible to do well. i want to build confidence without being cocky, and this is a very thin and difficult line to walk.

I was a little overconfident today, and i felt I was a little lazy.

but, i learned a couple things, which i will add into my trading in the future.

V

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  #105 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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9 trades for 32 ticks.

got stopped out on 3 trades.

Yesterday, was positive days, but had it not been for the last trade, I would have been negative. So yesterday was a lousy day.

Best trade today was a short I took that I got my target at 15 ticks.

Short summary today...hit heh wronmg button on the first one, and it disapeared.
It was more detailed.

V

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  #106 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Short summary today...hit heh wronmg button on the first one, and it disapeared.
It was more detailed.

V

I am guessing you are hitting preview, and then not hitting submit after viewing the preview.

Mike

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  #107 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Been a while since I have had a losing day. Does this mean anything? Of course, means that my system must be working well.

The biggest mistagkes traders make? ( that I have made)

1. Averaging into a losing trade. Or increasing SL. I read this from a lot of traders. I flirted with this myself, but I decided that if i was wrong, i'll take the hit. i might even close early. And I have moved my SL during a trade. But if my asseesmant is correct, I can get back in. Sure it may cost me the commission, but I have time to re-evaluate and regroup.

2. Overtrading. taking a trade right after a loser, because we want to make it back in one fell swoop, and we dont want to see red on the board, for more than 30 seconds, or for the day.

3. Lack of patience. There is always another trade. Wait for the good trades, and we all know where they are. This is very simple. I guess 2 and 3 are the same thing.

4. Poor money management. If I have 3 trades, with my SL at 8, and my target at 21, and I lose 2 out of 3, I am ahead 2 ticks. It really is that simple. (-3 commission) So even if I am only 33% efficient, I am still profitable. Once I was trading with a 24 SL and a 6 tick target. Needless to say, it was a mistake.

Anyway, these are problems, because I have done them all. Others might have a differnt list, but I am sure a couple of these are there. If you dont know where you came from, you wont know if you are heading in the right direction.

V

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  #108 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Big Mike View Post
I am guessing you are hitting preview, and then not hitting submit after viewing the preview.

Mike

Thanks Mike...Of course, you are right.

Do you have an active computer within arms reach 24/7?

Your member awareness is outstanding!

V

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  #109 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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It's a gift.



Mike

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  #110 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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OK just a note for those following my journal.

I am not a bad typist, nor am I a bad speller.

The truth is, I have a wireless Logitech keyboard, and for some unknown strange reason, the keystrikes get messed up, or they dont register, or they cut off words. ( I had to correct these sentences a few times) No probs on Outlook or Word, it has spell check.

I think i need a new keyboard mouse setup. Juts too lazy to shop around at Business Depot or Future Shop.

Any suggestions as to make and model? There are about a gazzillion of them.

Vance

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  #111 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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I ended up ditching my Logitech wireless keyboard and going for this instead, mainly due to exact problem as you.

Amazon.com: Logitech Illuminated Ultrathin Keyboard with Backlighting: Electronics

I got rid of my wireless mouse years ago. I use a Logitech G9 but to be honest, it is not comfortable. I would go with something else.

Mike

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  #112 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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my keyboard
Logitech Deluxe 250 Wired Keyboard - Black
features;
The Logitech Deluxe 250 Keyboard offers a comfortable, conservative design with drain holes for spill-resistance and overlay-ready F-row keys. It's an extremely comfortable keyboard that will enhance any PC.

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  #113 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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cory View Post
my keyboard
Logitech Deluxe 250 Wired Keyboard - Black
features;
The Logitech Deluxe 250 Keyboard offers a comfortable, conservative design with drain holes for spill-resistance and overlay-ready F-row keys. It's an extremely comfortable keyboard that will enhance any PC.

Thanks for the description. Please tell me, you wrote it yourself. Its very well written.

Vance

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  #114 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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10 trades. + 34.

3 out and out losers for -21 ticks. Was using a tighter stop, because of the volatility in CL...pretty rangy 5 min bars. I want to take my lumps earlier if I was on the wrong side of the trade.

Wasnt an easy day. 2 trades at +14 ticks, and small winners on the others. 1BE.

Risk and money management is very important. And trading in then moment with full awareness.

Thats all for now....

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  #115 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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8 trades today on the CL...

Was a little early on a couple of trades. In fact, got my SL hit then, just because I didnt learn my lesson, I jumped right back in..."stop filled" The first one, not my fault. the second one...all my fault.

But, chalked up to exerience.

Also, missed my signal at 9:35 to go short. Would have been a sucess, but, my eyes were not on the screen. Error 2.
Those 2 errors cost me 25 ticks. So, in real terms, each error is very costly.

This for me, highlights how important it is to remain mindful of the task at hand at all times, but particularily in trading, as these errors are tremendously costly.

Managed to finish +38, however, I give myself only a C grade, because I could have easily been down for the day.

But, that being said, i am gainig confidence in my process, and I am working on all facets of trading. What do i mean by that.

Back to the golf analogy. A single digit handicap golfer is good golfer. in fact, less than 2% of all golfers are single digit handicap golfers. ( If you dont golf, you can skip this part) A single digit handicaper is pretty good at all facets of the game. Driving the ball, approach shots, chipping, putting, shot selection, course management. But to get better, lower your handicap, they have to improve at all facets of the game. Because improvement form 9 to 7 to 5 to less will only happen incrementaly.

Trading seems to me to be the same. To improve as a trader, its not just about profitabilty. It is about strategy, trade management, money management, risk management. And what each of this means and how it applies under pressure. At least, thats the way i see it.


V

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  #116 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Had a computer /internet problem this morning, that I finally figured out.

But, it took me an hour. And instead of being ready to trade at 7:30 EST, I didnt get set up till 8:30 EST. The result?

I was anxious to get started, and i blew up on my first 2 trades. I know exactly what my problme was...I felt like I was missing somethingt and I became impatient. Havet had that feeling in a while, and i recognised it in myself, but not until I made 2 losing trades.

Was that the sole reason...nope. The first trade was reasonable, but it hit my SL...the second was a mistake. A losing trade should not affect my psyche.. If it does, then it was a trade that I should not have taken in the first place. The ssecond trtade was an attempt to get even, and of course, it was a mistake.

Was down 15 ticks after the first 2 trades.

Lots of raniness on the CL today, % minute chart showing large bull and bear tails, so it was a day to 1...increase my stops to mitigate that...something I wasnt inclined to do, particularily after the first 2 losing trades. 2. Be more aggressive with moving my stop to BE + 2. Went with 2, and as such I nibbled my way into positive teritory.

+ 18 ticks after commissions. On 12 trades. Had 3 losers for -24.

Had another mistake of a short I hessitated in taking at 9:15. Had my finger on the trigger, but...I waited a hair too long, and it ran away from me...Would have gotten 10 ticks out of that easily.

so, if I had elimnated the 2 errors, I would have not lost the 7 ticks on the bad trde and I would have gained the 10 ticks on the missed trade. Need to think of a technique to overcome the wrong thinking.

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  #117 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Keep forgetting, this is 2012. I dont have a Mayan Calender, so I guess the year is not overly significant to me.

Made a big mistake today...well, a foolish mistake. I was distracted around 10:30 AM. and well, you know what happens next...the Petroleum report and my stop gets hammered. Pretty difficult to find a CL trader that trades during the Petroleum report. oops.

That was a big mistake, will be more mindfull in the future.

I decided to make sure my first trade was a win, even if it wsa a small win, to set the tone for the day. So I get 3 ticks, and I feel...a little upset, because I short sheeted myself into 3 ticks when it should have been 15. was still a little discombolutaed about it 20 minutes later, and of course....I had 3 trades for -24. -21 after 4 trades. Overtraded...

So, I regrouped, took a few deep breathes, refocused, and then I calmly got back to the task at hand. I did well, I think, except for the 2 nd mistake at 10:30....but that was just silliness on my part. Dropped the ball on that one, cost me another 8 ticks.

But I finished the session better. Traded back from being down 21 ticks early, to getting back to +30 ticks.

This was on 14 trades. Eliminate 1 of the 4 foolish mistakes, and I am ahead +38 ticks on the day.

Only grade myself a C+...The best thing i did today was I was able to step outside myself and refocus during the session. in golf, it means making an on course correction. And I was successful after that, for the most part.Now I need to eliminate 1 error a session. The best time to eliminate an error? Before it ever happens.

Now, just to figure out how to do that....

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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Having a few connection problems with CQG on my AMP futures account. Worksapce donst seem to load immediately, so I have to reload the program, reconnect and hope NT dosnt time out before the conncection is made. Been happenning the last few days, but I do get it to work eventually...but today, I only had it working for the first hour on my simulated account connection.

I have Mirus Futures on a seperate platform with Ninja Trader and ZenFire, and that seems to perform flawlessly. But, I am not much of a techie, so its taking me time to sort out. I havea an account there as well.

had trade of +5 +8-1+4 for a total of 16 ticks.

The negative 1 was an error. I wanted to go long, but i went short by mistake (anyone ever do that before...hasnt happenned to me for weeks) andway, I reversed my position, immediately, but not before losing 1 tick, however, I close out the next trade at only +4 because I was rattled from the mistaken entry.

Bummer, because I would have had at least 12 to 15 ticks there.. price moved like I anticipated.

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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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i was a little annoyed at my computer/account/connection problems this morning.

I ussusally trade from 7:30 EST to 10:45 EST.

Today, because of my shortened screen time, I traded this afternoon...from 1 to 2:30. 1:30 to 2:30 does offer some movement on the CL, at least for my strategies.

Plus 23 ticks on 6 trades. Got my stop hit at -8 on 1 trade.

For the day its +16 net, this morning +23 this afternoon, for a total of +39 on the day.


There is an area of concern I do have, in that have not had a 20 - 25 tick gain in more than a few days. Ussually I get one of those every 2 or 3 sessions. For now, I'll be satisfied with little bites. As long as I come out ahead...

Is it really that easy? Trading is easy to understand, but very difficult to do, successfully.

A few months ago, I bought a book on forex trading strategies. I couldnt understand 10% of it. So it sat on my bookshelf. Took it out yesterday, and every single concept in it I understood and got almost as soon as I read it.

I am happy about my progress so far. And i really have to credit this forum, and the individuals that make up this forum. It has supremely beneficial for me, not only has it helped me learn more about trading than I thought possible, it has given me renewed perspective in my real job.

What is my job? I am an investment advisor/stock broker. From personal exsperience, the Market Wizards in this forum, are significantly more capable than the vast majority of the people in the retail investment industry. Proubly 99.9%. I read once, and I truly beleive this...the very best Mutual Fund managers quit to become Hedge Fund managers. I now know why that statement is true.

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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Friday the 13.

According to the Stress Management Center and Phobia Institute in Ashville, North Carolina, an estimated 17 to 21 million people in the United States are affected by a fear of this day. Some people are so paralyzed by fear that they avoid their normal routines in doing business, taking flights or even getting out of bed.

I dint get that memo...I traded anyway.

In the book Forex Trading Strategies by Archer, on page 162, he states as one of the 9 characteristica of a sucessfull trader is that " successful traders seldom think of prices being "too high" or "too low".

What does that really mean? Does it mean sucessful trader ignore the HOD or LOD of the day, week, month?

It has to mean that, if a trader thinks in terms of strictly too high or too low a price, it will result in not being able to buy or sell, and as such, opportunities are lost. I know some of the biggest mistake I have made in terms of trades are the ones that dont appear on my P and L, becasue they are the trades that I didnt take, the ones I self talked myself out of.

Today was a Down trend day, at least it started out that way, from yesterdays high. But it seemed more of a slow down trend day, so i was looking to short, and to look for reversals.

For the most part, It went faily well. I took what the market was willing to give. on the 5 min, there were tradable patterns, for my strategy.

11 trades.

2+4-9+11+6+11+7-8+10+9+8 = 51

All in all pretty good . Will do some backtesting on the weekend, try to work on another strategy for longer trades.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Its late Monday january 16, and I am contemplating my strategies for tommorrow morning, in anticipation of what I think I will see on the CL.

over the weekend, I was looking over my trade strategies, and the ratio of winners to losers, but more specifically, how much of the move I have captured after my correct entry. In addition, I was reviewing the number of trades i have been taking, and I have come to the conclusion that I have been overtrading slightly. try fewer trades, capture more of the move, or at least attempt to.

Did some light reading on the weekend, and a opened a dialogue with a fellow trader on futures.io (formerly BMT). We swapped a couple of emails, and because of his experience as a full time trader, he made a couple of very valuable suggestions, which I will work on the next few days. It was one of those AHA moments that we all have once in a while. It is amazing how a different set of eyes on your information can really clarify what you are attempting to accomplish. He was very encouraging, and he had some complimentary things to say about my journal, which leads me to beleive i am making progress. it sure feels that way.

Picked up a book at the local bookstore this weekend...Millionaire Traders. Intersting observations as they are a set of questions and answers, with avrious traders, and their stories. I wouldnt have purchased it, but it was in the discount bin for 9.95. Its a quick read, has a few pointers for trading strategies.

Anyway, should be up and running at 7:30 EST

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 VinceVirgil 
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I think I am going to drop the 2012...Redundant...we all know what year it is.

Bit of a rollicking day yesterday. Was at my desk early...trying to look for longer gains, wider stops, but, I did a little too much too fast. My bigger stops, mean the they got hit bigger when I was wrong. So, I went back to my proven method. Of course, its one day. Will try on replay to see how I can adjust it.

I am concentrating on the actual candle, and how it is painted in real time. For instance, on the 5 minute, if I have a bear bar with a long bear tail that is painted right before the close of the bar, it tells me something different from a similar bar whose tail was painted right at the opening and never retraces back. Similarily, rangy bars, that retace their full range over the 5 minute period that I am using, also says something different. It is my attempt to better quantify the dynamic nature of trading.

I read in Millionaire Traders over the weekend that confirms an idea that I have had with referen e to HOD and LOD. Its simple really. HODs and LODs are only such in hindsight. They are not those things in real time. They can be important, but should they really influence my trading? And if so, how much should they infulence it? A go no go signal? or should I just reduce my position size, or tighten or increase my stops, depending on the frequency.

Was in on Big Mikes Webinar on Saturday. Good presentaion. Big Mike is getting very good at presenting, It was logical, informative and din't bore me to death. I have sat through many presentations. Very nice work on Big Mikes part.

Trades 5 on Tuesday. Up 25 ticks per contract.

today, I was looking for an up trend day from the opening, and it was for the most part on the CL. Then a full on retracement to within 1 tick of the LOD at 100.54 from 8:40 AM at 102.06...The HOD. Of course with my stop, and target at 2R, i am positive most days. really focusing on protecting my capital, which means only taking the very best setups.

Would really liike to take fewer trades, and keep my tick target at 25 to 50 a day. I average around 12 - 15 trades a day, but really would like to get that number to less than 10. That means wider stops and bigger targets, which, at this point, I am having a little difficulty wrapping my head around.

I added a 30 minute chart to help in this endeavor. I was using a daily chart, but I found that time frame a little to long for Intraday Trading , considering I am more of a scalp/trender, as oppossed to pure trend trader.

Becauser of the up trend from the opening, and the reversal at 8:40, i found myself identifying more trades. In additon, because of the wide range of many 5 min bars, a few BE or near BE stops.

13 trades

+3-11+12+8-8+11+8+15+0+3-10+13+3= +47

One stop for -11 and one for -10, went off the reservation on those 2. hopefully, lesson learned. hard stop is not more than 8...but I was mouse happy...figured it would turn around. Anything less than +5 is really a BE trade, as my target is never 5 ticks. Minimum 2R...so its 16+1...but I trail my stop one I am BE. I try to lock in 70- 80 %.

Enough for today.

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 Big Mike 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I think I am going to drop the 2012...Redundant...we all know what year it is.

I am still writing 2011 on most things

Mike

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 VinceVirgil 
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Big Mike View Post
I am still writing 2011 on most things

Mike

OK, but how many times do you make the mistake BEFORE you identify it as a mistake so that you dont do it again? I have a job where I likely write the date down....at least 10 times a day.

So you think I would catch on by January 3?

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 VinceVirgil 
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Been experimenting with a wider stop, and scaling out in an attempt to leave a runner, in an effort to stay with the trend or swing trade in an attempt to cut down on my trades, while still preserving my tick target of 25 to 50 per session.

Of course, this new strategy. Or a modification of what I am currently doing.

Was replaying the idea on the ES, as I have not been following that in replay mode, and it seemed to work pretty well initially. The problem is that I find myself trying to fit it into my current trading style, and I makes me uneasy, which is not nessearily bad, but it what i am currently doing works, why change it?

I was looking over Gary CL assassin journal, and his use of his strategy is very simple in nature. I mean, I can recite it without even looking at it, and he is using the same parameters, indicators and charts for some time. Gi

2 cars, one off at 10 profit for BE the other runs. 10 ticks SL.

Combo EMA indicator, support and resistance dotted lines ( never did read exactly what they were, but, it dosnt matter, it speaks to him) Some VWAP, I guess. Up down volume indicator on the a 6 range chart for entries, longer time frame for confirmation of trends.

Thats pretty much it, give or take. Pretty simple, and effective. i think the word is elegant. Focus on money management and phsychology.

Was expecting a bull trend day...Cold snap in Canada...figurted would drive up heating oil prices and therefore pinch the supply line out of the Middle East. Also, Figured Iran had schedualed another missle trest in the straight of Hormuz and also that Electric cars were reported to be spontaneously combusting = price of Crude "to the moon".

Or, maybe not..

11 trades today...

+7+3-9+10+11+11+3+3-9+10+5=+44

2 trades were negative...anything 5 or less is basically BE, as I generally only tighten my stop so that the ticks are worth the reaseach...3 to 5 covers my noodling.

So if I call the BE trades No Mas, its really only 7 trades...

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 bijeremiad 
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I have been impressed with your progress. I am still more where you were back in October. Your search for simplicity has resonated with me. You seem to have found some consistency in short order. I thought it would at least a year to get there.

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 VinceVirgil 
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In and effort to cut down on my trading I have elected to attempt to limit my entries to the very best ones, based on Price Action.

While I have been consious of the other traders out there trying to take money from my account and put it into theirs, I beleive that I am not conscious of the motivation behind price movement, beyond the vibrating candles in real time. For instance, I dont want to get trapped in a trade, I want to truly recognise areas of support and resistance in able to better anticipate price movement. I am want to encorporate a combination of better postiion sizing, entries and exits based on action, and the size of stops, based on recent price action and to encorporate this in a rigourous framework of risk management.

I also want to better identify pure scalp setup, trend areas of S/R, as well as countertrend. The purpose, of course, is to better clarify my strategy.

Why now, considering that I have many more up days than down days?

Its because, I am relying too heavily scalping, which is causing me to become impatient, which I feel is causing me to overtrade. Everyday I have more than a coulpe of trades that I really shoulfd not have taken..mistakes if you will, and I want to reduse those. In addition, I want to gain on my profitable trades. In otherwords, i want to become more efficient.

Bottom line, I want to have more discipline in my trading.

For the most part, I think I accomplished that today.

My stategy was to enter with the trend mindful of price action and areas of support and resistance, particularily with regard to the LOD or HOD.Ii am not worried about whether the price is too low or too high, but rather, how the price action will repsond to that area of resistance. It can either break out, or bounce off of it. I guess thats why they call it Support and Resistance.

7 trades today.

+15+13+6+9-10+13+4=+50

Fewer trades, more ticks. Per contract. One contract at BE, dependent on signal bar close, and price action and area of support( Most trades were long after the selloff on the CL. thought it went too far, in a short timeframe.Was looking for a swing countertrend/trend after the big pushes on the shorts) the other I left as a runner, as I had read a strategy that related that 25% of a particular traders total gains were attributed to a 2 contracts that was allowed to run. this trader was trading multiple contract, and scaled out on 3 occasions ( of course, he was trading 20 contracts). Therfore, 25% of his gains were attributed to only 10% of his position.

In addtion, with a trailing stop, I dont have to be all in or all out on the stop. Still trying to refine how to do that on Nnija Trader...will take a little more practice.

Just another refinement on my trading journey.

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 VinceVirgil 
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chessjhm7 View Post
I have been impressed with your progress. I am still more where you were back in October. Your search for simplicity has resonated with me. You seem to have found some consistency in short order. I thought it would at least a year to get there.

Thanks for your comments.

My background...my real job, is in Wealth Management. So buying and selling investements is something I was familiar with prior to derivative trading.

But when I look back myself, I really feel I have learned a lot in a very short time, and when I think about it , frankly, I am a little puzzled and am in fact att times question my own progress. Concepts that were very foreign to me a few months ago(cant beleive its only been a few months) I understand. i looked at a webinar "An Afternoon with Big Mike" and frankly, he was speaking an unfamiliar dialect, back in Seotember. Now, I get it.

Webinars were a big help. Some I reviewed and did not like at all, however, they served their purpose in helping me to realize what kind of trader i want to be. I realized early that where to take the trade is really only a small part of trading. Money management and the physychology of trading is much more important. I prefer webinars on thoses sun=bjects as oppossed to startegies or indicastors. I also see that trading is really a very solitary endeavor, in that one has to keep their own council on some things, but rely on those with more experience in other areas.

More than a few traders have been very helpful, and have been very generous with their time. They know who they are, so I wont mention them here. i would like to reciprocate, and help others when i feel I have something valuable to contribute. My body of work is too scanty for me to offer any sage advice. I dont have the experince of thousands of hours of screen and study time that many in here have.

I read something from Van Tharp in his book SuperTraders that stated, after many years of training traders, he has seen some very smart people study and work at trading and that after years of trying, they were still not profitable. And there were some who took to trading as naturally as talking. Maybe I am part of the later group...I dont know, time will tell. for now, I find this very interesting, one the most interesting things I have ever done.

I mined nickel for a couple of years out of high school before I went ot university. I had the opportunity to work with various explosives and blasting agents. Safety fuses, various detonators, b_line( Ignitor chord that burns around 1 mile a second), Amfo(Trade name), and this gel that came in a loaf like wrapper called a sack pack. Blowing stuff up is pretty fun. Under vary controlled circumstances, of course

Trading, is almost as fun. Not quite, but almost.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Working on some new ATM strategies. With some study, I am attempting to do 2 things.

1. Cut down on my number of trades daily...below 10 for sure, and preferably below 5.

2. Capture more of the of the price movement of the instrumnert I am trading, so as to maximize my trading efficiency ( theres that work again....efficiency)

3. More conscious of previous days price action, as well as areas of support and resistance. By focusing on these areas, I can better anticipate price movement an get a better entry price.

Watched a webinar on you tube that made a lot of sence to me, so i am applying some of the concepts he spoke about. Not thae same market, but the comcepts are the same.

I took 9 trades today. A few too many, however, I am happy with the out come. My entries were pretty good, but becaquse of the ranginess of the day, I had a number of BE trades. 1 loser.

+18 +3 + 18 -13 +7 + 18 +8 + 6 + 13 = +78

Its a real test to let your winn ers run....but that is where the majority of the profitabilty is going to be. And teh ability to maitain your cool when you are taking heat, having confidence in that your strategy will play out the way you anticipate.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Another balmy day in Canada. Thunder Bay, actually. Think Toronto when you hear Thunder Bay...its just way farther north.

Had arounde 3 inches of snow today. Add that to the 3 inches yesterday, and Saturday = had to get gas for the snowblower. And broke my snow shovel trying top clear where the snowplow piled it up on my front sidewalk.

Anyway, worked out of my home office for most of the day. My assistant holds down the fort at the office while I'm not there, and keeps in touch by phone and email. I love having an assistant...makes my life so very much easier. She is good at the things I am lacking.

As it was, made a few trades midday, something I dont do too often. But, seeing as it was quiet and I was stuck inside, I looked to make a few trades.

Develop as I was too early on i got stopped on one, BE on the other. -17 on the 2 trades.

Caught most of a long move from 98.86 at 12:05 EST to 12:50EST

4 trades +56 ticks

Had a long trade working at 13:25 EST 99.91, but I closed it out manually at 99.98. +8 ticks. Thought there might be a pull back at 100.00 and erase the previous nice trades i had going. Turned out to be a mistake, as it made the daily high of 100.24 10 minutes later 13:35 EST. Had i not pulled the pin early, i would have had my 18-20 ticks easy instead of 7. Happens.

Went to the bookstore today, when I had to go to the local mall (it may be snowing, but I have all wheel drive...amazing, I could run the Baja in my SUV) ...and what did they have? The book by Daniel Kahnman, Thinking, Fast and Slow. On sale 30% off in hardcover. I just read a journal that made reference to it, and I read the review in the New Yorker. By the sounds of it, it has to help me with my trading.

Got a call from my broker today. Courtesy call, hey hows it going and stuff. Anything I can do (to help you generate more commission for our firm) He means well, just trying to scratch out a living. cant fault him for that.

Today was a really good day. Calling it a B+. more ticks today than I have got in some time. I was on the right side of it for the most part. Fairly tight range for the CL tho from 7:30 to 14:30 EST.

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 VinceVirgil 
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10 trades today. Still working on my stops and where the best place to put them, as well as trailing. Had a couple of trades move away from me today, got stopped out at the begginnig of the move. Was also early on a couple of trades, and got taken out, tho the overall move was right.

+45 ticks today.

-13 and -11 on 2 trades.

one -2 BE slippage

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 VinceVirgil 
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Last couple of weeks I have been focusing on a few things. I am looking at adding a few things to compliment what i have already been doing.

I havnt been involved in trading futures very long, only a few months, really since October of 2011. Started looking into it last August, but by the time I had every thing setup, it was into September.

Looked at the pay to learn sites, make money in your PJ's, start with 500 dollars and make 2000 a day blah, blah...

Have a buddy that was on ShadowTraders, and he was all fired up about it, but now, he has abandoned it almost completely. He must have spent 5 thousand with them. Was with them for almost 2 years. He is with another group now, someone whom he met on one of the conferences put on by ShadowTraders in the Bahamas. He knows about futures.io (formerly BMT), but he cant see the value in it.

In a lot of respects, trading is truly a solitary endeavor. You have to take responsibility for your own mistakes, embrace them, learn from them, examine them closely, so as to minimise them in the future. I didnt say get rid of, because you will make mistakes, you will place losing trades.

I percieve, however, that thre potential for making mistakes increases with the number of trade one makes. And , statistically, what is the average tick gain on a winning trade based on ones strategy verses a wrong trade. therfre, when I am right on a trade, i want to capture more ticks on the right move, recognising on CL that its really only good for 2 to 3 big moves a day. the key is to recognise them early enough to get a good entry, and not to get greedy and take too much out of it, while keeping an eye on your stop and the frequency of the price movement.

To me this means mutiple stops and trailing on my strategy.

And reduce the number of trasdes. Thats what I did today, or attempted to do.

Was a bit of nervous Nelly, as I was out of my comfort zone a little...not necessarily a bad thing,.

Asa result, I was able to recognise 3 moves from 7:30 EST.

7 trades.

-47+46+43-25+18+43+42 = 117

Dindt get a full stop today, but I could have got more if I adjusted mt trailing stop better. Not really sure if I am using it properly, so I was still on the mouse, moving it manually. Thats the nervous part.

Anyway, thats how it went. I think I am on the right track.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Last couple of weeks I have been focusing on a few things. I am looking at adding a few things to compliment what i have already been doing.

I havnt been involved in trading futures very long, only a few months, really since October of 2011. Started looking into it last August, but by the time I had every thing setup, it was into September.

Looked at the pay to learn sites, make money in your PJ's, start with 500 dollars and make 2000 a day blah, blah...

Have a buddy that was on ShadowTraders, and he was all fired up about it, but now, he has abandoned it almost completely. He must have spent 5 thousand with them. Was with them for almost 2 years. He is with another group now, someone whom he met on one of the conferences put on by ShadowTraders in the Bahamas. He knows about futures.io (formerly BMT), but he cant see the value in it.

In a lot of respects, trading is truly a solitary endeavor. You have to take responsibility for your own mistakes, embrace them, learn from them, examine them closely, so as to minimise them in the future. I didnt say get rid of, because you will make mistakes, you will place losing trades.

I percieve, however, that thre potential for making mistakes increases with the number of trade one makes. And , statistically, what is the average tick gain on a winning trade based on ones strategy verses a wrong trade. therfre, when I am right on a trade, i want to capture more ticks on the right move, recognising on CL that its really only good for 2 to 3 big moves a day. the key is to recognise them early enough to get a good entry, and not to get greedy and take too much out of it, while keeping an eye on your stop and the frequency of the price movement.

To me this means mutiple stops and trailing on my strategy.

And reduce the number of trasdes. Thats what I did today, or attempted to do.

Was a bit of nervous Nelly, as I was out of my comfort zone a little...not necessarily a bad thing,.

Asa result, I was able to recognise 3 moves from 7:30 EST.

7 trades.

-47+46+43-25+18+43+42 = 117

Dindt get a full stop today, but I could have got more if I adjusted mt trailing stop better. Not really sure if I am using it properly, so I was still on the mouse, moving it manually. Thats the nervous part.

Anyway, thats how it went. I think I am on the right track.

You know, I wrote almost the same exact thing more than once about CL. The trick is finding those larger moves. We all know it will happen, its just which one. The 5M chart or greater is the chart to trade for those larger moves as well. So you are on the right track in that regard. You'll figure out the trail stop thing as you go along. Just look at price action to tell you where to get out.

Somewhere along the line I decided I was not the person that could hold for larger moves. I was constantly looking to lock in profit, tighten the stop, etc. Over managing the trade. So I opted for smaller, more easily attained targets. Today, it dawned on me that arbitrary targets are pretty stupid. At least in the sense that if I am holding for a large target, I shouldn't demand that I get at least "x" or "Y" ticks from this trade. If I am truly looking for larger targets, then simply get in, and ride it until you would rather be going the opposite direction or until it stalls out. That being said, I don't know if I can do that or not. I made 140 ticks today on sim after I stopped out earlier. That was three trades. In real life, thats probably not gonna happen for me. I was pretty nervous about it even on sim.

If you are the person that can hold a trade through pull backs, then holding for larger moves is by far and away, the right thing to do. Less trades means fewer chances to be really wrong, less commissions, less stress about finding entries. All around better way to go.

But for me at this stage, I am more or less dialed in to smaller targets.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
You know, I wrote almost the same exact thing more than once about CL. The trick is finding those larger moves. We all know it will happen, its just which one. The 5M chart or greater is the chart to trade for those larger moves as well. So you are on the right track in that regard. You'll figure out the trail stop thing as you go along. Just look at price action to tell you where to get out.

Somewhere along the line I decided I was not the person that could hold for larger moves. I was constantly looking to lock in profit, tighten the stop, etc. Over managing the trade. So I opted for smaller, more easily attained targets. Today, it dawned on me that arbitrary targets are pretty stupid. At least in the sense that if I am holding for a large target, I shouldn't demand that I get at least "x" or "Y" ticks from this trade. If I am truly looking for larger targets, then simply get in, and ride it until you would rather be going the opposite direction or until it stalls out. That being said, I don't know if I can do that or not. I made 140 ticks today on sim after I stopped out earlier. That was three trades. In real life, thats probably not gonna happen for me. I was pretty nervous about it even on sim.

If you are the person that can hold a trade through pull backs, then holding for larger moves is by far and away, the right thing to do. Less trades means fewer chances to be really wrong, less commissions, less stress about finding entries. All around better way to go.

But for me at this stage, I am more or less dialed in to smaller targets.

Aboutt not being the person to hold for larger targets... Why not be the same person, and have a different strategy for a the different outcomne you anticipate?

Ii was watching a trader on YouTube talking about trading, and he was talking S/R, trend channels, HOD, LOD, Ranges and the like. But he also mentioned t6he difference between a good trend trade, reversal trade, swing trade or scalp. The movement on teh 5 minute is obvious after the fact.

Real time, much different. So to recognize the conditions that exist for each, and to build a trade strategy that encorporates those differnt conditions in order to maximize the move, keeping your risk managable and a close watch on MM is really a challange.

It really is only possivble on multiple contracts, with a runner in case its a big move.

I did that today, after I posted, and worked ou pretty well.

3 contracts, hard point stop.

First 2 targets hit, you are profitable. (once trade is in the green, can manually move stop based on PA)

Runner trail stop.

Had 1 trade that this worked. After I wrote in my journal. +78 ticks on a single trade.

Only need 1 of those a day...all the rest can be BE.

And i can still scalp a few ticks, if the conditions are right...Of course, i have to have a second account for that.

I dont know if I am the buy and let it work either. Was nevous on it, but, it sure sounded cool when it hit that cash register sound.

i'll post the area on my chart.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Aboutt not being the person to hold for larger targets... Why not be the same person, and have a different strategy for a the different outcomne you anticipate?

Ii was watching a trader on YouTube talking about trading, and he was talking S/R, trend channels, HOD, LOD, Ranges and the like. But he also mentioned t6he difference between a good trend trade, reversal trade, swing trade or scalp. The movement on teh 5 minute is obvious after the fact.

Real time, much different. So to recognize the conditions that exist for each, and to build a trade strategy that encorporates those differnt conditions in order to maximize the move, keeping your risk managable and a close watch on MM is really a challange.

It really is only possivble on multiple contracts, with a runner in case its a big move.

I did that today, after I posted, and worked ou pretty well.

3 contracts, hard point stop.

First 2 targets hit, you are profitable. (once trade is in the green, can manually move stop based on PA)

Runner trail stop.

Had 1 trade that this worked. After I wrote in my journal. +78 ticks on a single trade.

Only need 1 of those a day...all the rest can be BE.

And i can still scalp a few ticks, if the conditions are right...Of course, i have to have a second account for that.

I dont know if I am the buy and let it work either. Was nevous on it, but, it sure sounded cool when it hit that cash register sound.

i'll post the area on my chart.

I think my main issue is the idea I seem to have to be right about the overall big target. I get locked into the existing trade as well as the "target" I picked for the trade and fail to see the opposite signal which would be the reason to get out. If somehow I was able to remove the blinders created by the existing trade, I might be able to do both, scalp and longer runs.

I like the idea of potentially using two accounts for scalps and runners. I may investigate this further.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 VinceVirgil 
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You have likely thought of this, but what if you have no target on the runner, just a trail stop once you get your early target(s) and therfore, profitable. That way, you let the market decide when it runs outta gas.

Happen on my last trade, runner went for 33 ticks before it came back to the 4 tick trail after it hit the 3rd step profit target. Until this afternoon, I never have captured 33 ticks on a single contract before. And that contributed almost 50% to the total of 78 for the trade. The first 2 didnt move that far.

Gary the Cl Assassin seems to have a similar approach once the entry is identified. So does Big Mike...saw it on one of his webinars. Big Mike showed an example of 5 contracts, 2 target 1, 2 target 2 and the last one a runner, if memory serves me correctly. In the book millionaire traders, one of the contributors had a similar approach.

What I am saying is that if you can identify conditions for a successful trade based on your parameters for identifying the first part of the move, , you already did the hard part. I dislike getting 15 ticks, then seeing it run for another 50. It dosnt feel like I made 15, but rather, I lost an easy 40 ticks. Adding the additional contract to run when profitable, or when your original targets are hit seems like a no brainer. Move the runner to BE on the completion of your first move, which would likely be 12 to 17 ticks.

CL is only good for 2-3 big moves a day. If they are that big, should be easy to spot it...no?

Looks at my 5 minute today. Looks pretty easy to spot them to me.

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 Cloudy 
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I'm amazed at your progress. +40 tick average per day on the CL. Congratulations. An on practically a bare chart with a 20EMA similar to how Al Brooks does it. I've been a student of Al Brooks' method for a while but not fond of waiting so long to scalp 2-15 ticks a day on the ES five minute chart. (yes, all too often he advocates "doing nothing" for long stretches and even settling for 2-4 ticks in a tough day) He suggests adding more contract size instead of going for more trades and ticks, but to me , more ticks just feels more gratifying and somewhat more secure in reaffirming trading confidence. And watching some of Al's live webinars as we wait 1 hour sometimes to make a small 4 tick scalp is just maddening to me.

I've been trying futures for 2 years and I'm still trying to average 30-40 ticks/day on the 6E. I can do 12 ticks in maybe a few hours consistently but it's mostly scalps and totally draining on me. Like you mentioned yes, after I scalp out, half the time price goes maddeningly farther into profit without me for 5 to 15 more ticks sometimes. I got scared out of CL a couple times dipping into it after losing to stop losses. Maybe I should go for it again using my same current methods on the 6E.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
You have likely thought of this, but what if you have no target on the runner, just a trail stop once you get your early target(s) and therfore, profitable. That way, you let the market decide when it runs outta gas.

Happen on my last trade, runner went for 33 ticks before it came back to the 4 tick trail after it hit the 3rd step profit target. Until this afternoon, I never have captured 33 ticks on a single contract before. And that contributed almost 50% to the total of 78 for the trade. The first 2 didnt move that far.

Gary the Cl Assassin seems to have a similar approach once the entry is identified. So does Big Mike...saw it on one of his webinars. Big Mike showed an example of 5 contracts, 2 target 1, 2 target 2 and the last one a runner, if memory serves me correctly. In the book millionaire traders, one of the contributors had a similar approach.

What I am saying is that if you can identify conditions for a successful trade based on your parameters for identifying the first part of the move, , you already did the hard part. I dislike getting 15 ticks, then seeing it run for another 50. It dosnt feel like I made 15, but rather, I lost an easy 40 ticks. Adding the additional contract to run when profitable, or when your original targets are hit seems like a no brainer. Move the runner to BE on the completion of your first move, which would likely be 12 to 17 ticks.

CL is only good for 2-3 big moves a day. If they are that big, should be easy to spot it...no?

Looks at my 5 minute today. Looks pretty easy to spot them to me.


Lets consider to scenarios.

1. 5 lots scale out at three targets. Lets say they are 2x10, 2x20 and 1x40. Assuming we are talking crude oil here at $10 per tick that works out to $1000 before commissions

2. 5 lots all in all out at 10 ticks. This equals $1000

The advantage to #1 is that you have one trade therefore one set of commissions. Another one is that you cover your risk fairly soon and that takes the stress off of managing the trade out from there.

The down side is this, you need this runner to run out 40 ticks before it equals scenario #2

In my mind, the only upside is less commissions. While that is a valid consideration, the question is, how often will you get 40+ ticks on your trade? A given is that you will see 2-3 large moves each day on CL. Do you as a trader want to sit all day long waiting for them? If so, then the scale out works better if you will hold every trade looking for larger moves.

If you would rather take some decent profit during a set trading period of say 2 hours, then its possible to capture a larger move or be content with several ten tick trades if they present themselves.

Of course, there is another consideration and that is news. I personally don't trade 5 mins prior to the news. This means you would perhaps have to exit prior to a trade being finished or perhaps not entering a trade at all depending on when it set up.

Shorter term profit targets solves several problems for me. 1. the news issue, 2. my desired trading hours, and three, my personality in that I have trouble holding for longer moves and through pull backs.

The way I see it, if you trade all day, larger moves are the way to go, anything less than that, smaller targets. Maybe not my ten ticks but anything between 10 and 50 with a trader taking profits at logical points.

Its not perfect yet, but its where I am at....and at least for now, seems to be working.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #139 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Cloudy View Post
I'm amazed at your progress. +40 tick average per day on the CL. Congratulations. An on practically a bare chart with a 20EMA similar to how Al Brooks does it. I've been a student of Al Brooks' method for a while but not fond of waiting so long to scalp 2-15 ticks a day on the ES five minute chart. (yes, all too often he advocates "doing nothing" for long stretches and even settling for 2-4 ticks in a tough day) He suggests adding more contract size instead of going for more trades and ticks, but to me , more ticks just feels more gratifying and somewhat more secure in reaffirming trading confidence. And watching some of Al's live webinars as we wait 1 hour sometimes to make a small 4 tick scalp is just maddening to me.

I've been trying futures for 2 years and I'm still trying to average 30-40 ticks/day on the 6E. I can do 12 ticks in maybe a few hours consistently but it's mostly scalps and totally draining on me. Like you mentioned yes, after I scalp out, half the time price goes maddeningly farther into profit without me for 5 to 15 more ticks sometimes. I got scared out of CL a couple times dipping into it after losing to stop losses. Maybe I should go for it again using my same current methods on the 6E.

I hear you. Al is a differant cat, for sure. Patience of a 3 toed sloth. I have spent a full session just watching the market and not trading. Afterward, I felt I accomplished something, but, there were times during the day I couldnt sit still.

Al's techniques work on any market, including the CL. But the CL moves, so the instrument fits my personality much better. 15 + tick moves are not uncommon, but I use the 5 minute. i tried shorter time frames, but the the candles looked like Jackson Pollloch was splashing paint all over the screen. Gave me too many false signals.

As far as the tick averages, I have had a few down days, but not that many. Last few sessions it has been increasing, as I am working on a couple of different strategies that encorporate bigger moves with bigger targets. Its still a work in progress.

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 VinceVirgil 
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I owe a debt of gratitude to this forum. I can honestly say that I would not be where I am without the benefits of this Forum. It has been a major help.

The trading journal has been extremely beneficial. Looking back over it, in conjunction with my written journal and hardcopy charts, is likely the single biggest contributor to my education in trading. In fact, the contacts that I have made through the forum, and the feedback I have received, not to mention the wonderful resources, indicators, webinars, threads. To get where I am today, would have taken me 2 more years and 10,000 headaches.
Anyway, working on a couple of different strategies with regard to risk and mony management.

Still trading the same setups, but now I am lengthening my time horizon and increasing my targets, and incresing my SL, where appropriate.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Fairly tight range today on the CL. About 100 tricks. CL is ussually 2 to 300. Last few seessions, support looks to be around 99.40.

I made a big mistake today.

I went long on a trade, then, reversed because I was ahead on the day. (another mistake thinking P&L instead of mindful trading) Well, got stopped out on both trades. All within 4 minutes.

The market giveth, and the market taketh away.

Broke a major rule. Do not trade for 15 minutes after a losing trade. (Unless it is overwhelmingly favourable) The first trade was just a wrong entry...happens.

The second trade was the mistake. It was a knee jerk move on my part, for which the is no excuse. Havent done that in some time. To be sure, I am disappointed in myself for commiting this grave error.

It trades 2 good trades to make up for 1 bad trade. Better to not make the bad trade.

Had 4 good trades today. A see saw day for me today, is the best way I can describe it.

+53 ticks, the error cost me 14, which is in reality 28 ticks. 14 for the error, the 14 to get back to BE.

If I am always aware of the 2 good trades for 1 bad, I think I would trade better.

Thast another thing Al Brooks says in his book.

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Lets consider to scenarios.

1. 5 lots scale out at three targets. Lets say they are 2x10, 2x20 and 1x40. Assuming we are talking crude oil here at $10 per tick that works out to $1000 before commissions

2. 5 lots all in all out at 10 ticks. This equals $1000

The advantage to #1 is that you have one trade therefore one set of commissions. Another one is that you cover your risk fairly soon and that takes the stress off of managing the trade out from there.

The down side is this, you need this runner to run out 40 ticks before it equals scenario #2

In my mind, the only upside is less commissions. While that is a valid consideration, the question is, how often will you get 40+ ticks on your trade? A given is that you will see 2-3 large moves each day on CL. Do you as a trader want to sit all day long waiting for them? If so, then the scale out works better if you will hold every trade looking for larger moves.

If you would rather take some decent profit during a set trading period of say 2 hours, then its possible to capture a larger move or be content with several ten tick trades if they present themselves.

Of course, there is another consideration and that is news. I personally don't trade 5 mins prior to the news. This means you would perhaps have to exit prior to a trade being finished or perhaps not entering a trade at all depending on when it set up.

Shorter term profit targets solves several problems for me. 1. the news issue, 2. my desired trading hours, and three, my personality in that I have trouble holding for longer moves and through pull backs.

The way I see it, if you trade all day, larger moves are the way to go, anything less than that, smaller targets. Maybe not my ten ticks but anything between 10 and 50 with a trader taking profits at logical points.

Its not perfect yet, but its where I am at....and at least for now, seems to be working.

OK, I see what you are saying. But this is what I would consider...Whats the risk? If your hard stop is 10 ticks, if the conditions are right, then 1 is the better trade. If you hit your targets on 1, total is 20+40+40 ticks = 100 ticks. if it moves 20, you still have 80 ticks. Of course, where to set the stops comes with experience and feel for the market on that particular day.

Hit your target on 2, its 50 ticks.

If its 10 and no more all day every day, its 2.

Booth trades are valid. The key is identifying when. Why not where both hats? Some long, some scalp.

If you can learn one way, you can learn another. But I do agree, that for your bread and butter, you have to dance with the one you brought.

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  #143 (permalink)
 omaha786 
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VinceVirgil View Post
OK, I see what you are saying. But this is what I would consider...Whats the risk? If your hard stop is 10 ticks, if the conditions are right, then 1 is the better trade. If you hit your targets on 1, total is 20+40+40 ticks = 100 ticks. if it moves 20, you still have 80 ticks. Of course, where to set the stops comes with experience and feel for the market on that particular day.

Hit your target on 2, its 50 ticks.

If its 10 and no more all day every day, its 2.

Booth trades are valid. The key is identifying when. Why not where both hats? Some long, some scalp.

If you can learn one way, you can learn another. But I do agree, that for your bread and butter, you have to dance with the one you brought.

Assume that for 100 profitable trades, 50 made to 10t then BE stop, 30 made to 20t then BE stop, 20 made to the eventual 40t. The profits would be:

50 x (2x10 + 2x0 + 1x0) = 1000
30 x (2x10 + 2x20 + 1x0) = 1800
20 x (2x10 + 2x20 + 1x40) = 2000

The total profit is 4800 ticks.

For 10t all in/out, the total profit is 100 x 5 x 10 = 5000 ticks.

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  #144 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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I have this image in my mind of fishing for Walleye.

I like fishing for Walleye. When they are in the midst of a feeding, you can hawk them out of the water one after the other. But when they arent on the bite, you have to hunt around for them. Depending on the wind, and the temperate, and the underwater structure, they can be allusive.

They are one of the best freshwater fish to eat as well. They have a delicate taste, and they take on the flavour you spice them with very well.

And, very important, they are very easy to clean, with a minimum amount of smell. Very important, if you are the one doing the fish cleaning, and I usually am. Northerns are kinda slimy, and the smell is hard to get off your hands. Same with smallmouth bass.

Thinking about fishing cause its so cold here right now.

had a rough morning ....got puched around a bit.

-30 ticks...What can I say but I dont really want to talk about it.

Going to regroup, review my trades in detail and look forward to tommorrows session.

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  #145 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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VinceVirgil View Post
had a rough morning ....got puched around a bit.

-30 ticks...What can I say but I dont really want to talk about it.

Going to regroup, review my trades in detail and look forward to tommorrows session.

1. By not wanting to talk about it, I assume that you didn't follow your rules.

2. You need to closely examine what is keeping you from following rules. Is it being afraid to execute? Trading too big? Charts moving too fast? Confusion/conflicting info on charts? Lack of confidence? Lack of patience?

3. Once you identify all the areas where you are failing to follow your rules, then you need to come up with a specific plan to correct that behavior. That almost always does not involve changing the rules themselves, but changing the environment instead (environment being for instance the size you trade, or doing more forward testing to build up confidence, or reducing indicators to minimize confusion, or practicing patience by taking only 1 or 2 trades a day, etc).

I know you don't want to talk about it. I get it. But I disagree, and think you learn most from the experiences like this so it is very important to not just shove them aside.

Mike

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  #146 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Looks like I got slapped upside the head...

I didnt want to talk about it right then...

But i am prepared to now. It wasnt the prettiest day, and I went against my own rules. This has to be the most difficult process in trading, following the rules that you, yourself made up. And holding yourself accountable.

Interestingly, I had 2 trades that worked out to perfection...but that was later in the session. Made a couple of mistakes on my entries by not following my rules but then I decided that it just wasnt my day.

There have been some trades every day where I had supreme confidence placing a trade, 2 maybe 3 if I am having a real good day....no hesistation at all. I knew the trades were going to work. Even tho I had a real good result on 2 trades, they didnt feel right.

Today, I was out of synch, if that makes sense. It has happenned before,and what I have done in the past is try a little relaxation mindfulness deep breathing excetera. That has always helped. Today I didnt do that. I had a couple of interruptions, and though they were small interruptions, I was irritated by them, and was still thinking of them when I resumed my trading.

I shut it down a little earlier than usual as a result. And I am resolved to do better tommorrow.

BTW Big Mike, thanks for the reminder. If you hadnt mentioned it, I likely wouldnt have written a post script to the day. The suggestions in 3 are of particular interest, as I could likely check off at least 2 of them as areas I need to improve on. Last few sessions I think my trading is a little too loose, and I need to tighten up some.

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 VinceVirgil 
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well, after yesterdays debacle, took a tranq, watched Iron Chef, had a brewski...and medidated on my wrong headedness.

today I was determined to do better.

Partial success, was on the right side of the rally on the cl from 8:30 to 9:30. Got my target hits 3 times in row...one after the other, for a total of 49 ticks. However, this begs a question. Are my targets too small? What is a realistic prercentage to capture of a move, while keeping a close eye on downside risk.To capture bigger moves, one has to be willing to use a wider stop. how wide is too wide? 1:1,1: 1.5, 1:2, 1:5?

After the daily high of 100.29, wasnt very efficient on the shorts, as I didnt expect a big breakdown of price.

+57 on the day, primarily from the large move from 9:00 am and peaked at 101.29. Had a flash that blew through my stop later in the session that blasted me for 22 ticks. Those program trades. Not happy when that happens. Hasnt happened for a while.

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  #148 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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VinceVirgil View Post
well, after yesterdays debacle, took a tranq, watched Iron Chef, had a brewski...and medidated on my wrong headedness.

today I was determined to do better.

Partial success, was on the right side of the rally on the cl from 8:30 to 9:30. Got my target hits 3 times in row...one after the other, for a total of 49 ticks. However, this begs a question. Are my targets too small? What is a realistic prercentage to capture of a move, while keeping a close eye on downside risk.To capture bigger moves, one has to be willing to use a wider stop. how wide is too wide? 1:1,1: 1.5, 1:2, 1:5?

After the daily high of 100.29, wasnt very efficient on the shorts, as I didnt expect a big breakdown of price.

+57 on the day, primarily from the large move from 9:00 am and peaked at 101.29. Had a flash that blew through my stop later in the session that blasted me for 22 ticks. Those program trades. Not happy when that happens. Hasnt happened for a while.

good job on the journal Vance.I didnt realize this journal was yours.Mike has some great advice.I would like to see some charts, because, if you review the week on saturday for example, its easy to see the good trades,...and the mistakes..Just my opinion.Also....do not beat yourself up!!!If this was easy, everyone would do it.Its very impressive, how quickly youve come this far(imo).I think that alot of traders think they will be profitable every trading day...the market doesnt work that way...It sounds to me like you are pretty honest with yourself, and youre method, executed correctly, will make $ each month................As far as changing targets?watch what happens if you do that tomorrow!Every day is different, so ,if youve been doing well, i wouldnt let one day influence that.********Also, is it me?, or has the cl changed a bit in the last 2 weeks?Every so often, the markets will do that.Good job today

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 VinceVirgil 
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Sat on my hands for most of the day, till after 10:30.

Really wasnt clear, as after the report, CL was in a tight range, and as we all know, tight range with lots of overlapping bars = baby dosnt get new shoes. At least, not today.

I was looking for a measued move off the 21 later in the morning, as I hung around in my office till past 12:30 today.

12:16 long, Was a bit of a risky trade, but I thought prices were due to breake out to the upside from 98.74. Why is it risky? In this case I thought there was a lot of congestion near the top of the range and when I say the momentum, I took the trade. ( of course, I drew the lines) Yes. know the targets ambitious, for sure, but I have a trailing stop. As it was, it pulled back and I got closed out.

+27 ticks today. Been a tough week so far, and its only Wednesday.

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 VinceVirgil 
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We all are businessmen. ( or women, but frankly , men outnumber women in trading at least 10 to 1) Trading is a business.

I have been giving a lot of thought to this lately, because, it occurred to me, that most traders are not experienced business people, or self employed. They ussually work for someone else, and not themselves. For someone to succeed as a trader/buisnessman, an individual needs to learn good buisness practices, and gain the experience that an independent buisnesssman learns from being in buisness. Trading is a very difficult endeavor, but juggle that with all the other assorted challenges of running a buisness, like rent, utilities, insurance, personal expenses, supporting dependents. And try doing that while the market is open...9 to 4. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

I truly have to admire ones who are successfully traders that have come from being an employee to running a trading business.

By comparison, taking trades is the easiest part of trading...Its coming to grips with the consequences of clicking the mouse that is hard.

Today I was much better than the last few sessions.

10 trades.

My mindset today was to protect first, so I wanted to be more rigourous with my entries, and more precise with my stops so as to let my winners run. Problem today tight range after the selloff of the last few sessions. So where is the support low?

Anyway, for me it was more about trading in the moment, and being more patient. Clicking the mouse with authoriy, without hestation after I have seen my entry and exit.

Finished up +44 on the day.

Got stopped out on stoped fully on 1 trade, tightened my stop on another after I was profitable, but got taken out by 1 tick on a pullback, that turned around and would have hit my target. That was annoying. I have it on the chart, areas of interest.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Well, today is a first. 3 trades. Thats it.

Trade 1...was long off the low at 96.25.

Had a good target. Was in for the flash to the upside. +51

Thought of quitting for the day. This was just before the opening.

Trade 2

- 15

Trade 3

+30

Turns out I was a touch early and too tight on my stop for the 2nd trade. Too rangy, was fortunate to get the 30 on this one.

Thats it for the day. Seems what I have been working on these last 2 weeks is coming around. I am really looking at bigger moves, when conditions are favourable, and the risk management.

Satisfied with my patience today. There were times when I was in teh trade that I was itching to tighten my stop... Trade 2 crashed almosrt immediately.

But trade 3 needed time to work. Was up +19, down to -7, back to +28, pullback, then target. As it was, touched 97.44. 30 ticks right on.

A harrowing 10 minutes.

+66 ticks.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Well, today is a first. 3 trades. Thats it.



+66 ticks.

Nice job. I am impressed.

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 bobarian 
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Well, today is a first. 3 trades. Thats it.

Trade 1...was long off the low at 96.25.

Had a good target. Was in for the flash to the upside. +51

Thought of quitting for the day. This was just before the opening.

Trade 2

- 15

Trade 3

+30

Turns out I was a touch early and too tight on my stop for the 2nd trade. Too rangy, was fortunate to get the 30 on this one.

Thats it for the day. Seems what I have been working on these last 2 weeks is coming around. I am really looking at bigger moves, when conditions are favourable, and the risk management.

Satisfied with my patience today. There were times when I was in teh trade that I was itching to tighten my stop... Trade 2 crashed almosrt immediately.

But trade 3 needed time to work. Was up +19, down to -7, back to +28, pullback, then target. As it was, touched 97.44. 30 ticks right on.

A harrowing 10 minutes.

+66 ticks.

awesome Vance!!i got blown out(again)very rangeboundfrom 9 to 10..but the trades were there(if i was patient) again,great job

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 VinceVirgil 
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I had never given technical ananlysis much credit, as the investment propoganda that I have been exposed to in all my years in wealth management has been biased toward value investing. However, value investing, or buy and hold stratagies are most beneficial for the manufacturer of the investment products. The client receives a reduced risk profile, however, also, very limited upside potential. The very best mutual fund managers become hedge fund managers, unless they own the mutual fund. Met a MF few owners in Canada, and during the early 90's ( has it been that long already) and are they astute investors? Good money managers? Nope...graet at marketing and sales. Best money manager? Richard Dreyhaus...but the guy looked like he slept in his clothes. But his ability induced the company I worked for to let him manage his own Mutual Fund with 100 million of client money. Did great too, untill the Dot.com meltdown of 2000. Proubly he is on futures.io (formerly BMT) somewhere using a different handle, trading for his own account.

1 invesmnent paradigm he used was buy high, sell higher. He wanted to see momentum in a stock, a positive out look, expanding earnings.

Day traders do that every day. They buy the trend, they want to see momentum to get into a trade. After all these years, I finally get what he was talking about.

I signed up for the traders expo in Vegas in november. Want to check out stuff htere, listen to a few speakers in the breakout sessions. Talk to some of them face to face. Maybe meet a few fellow futures.io (formerly BMT) ers.

7 trades today.

Made 2 mistakes. Got my stop hit on my second trade, and , broke my own rule and got back in. And got hit a second time. Was my own fault. Mistake 1.

My rule is....Wait 15 minutes to trade after a losing trade. There will be another setup. There will be.

So after that, i waited the 15 minutes, (well 13 minutes and 12 seconds) watched and waited and got my signal.

After 4 trades I was up 6 ticks.

+13
-16
-16
+25
+9
+27
+22
-----

+64

Trade 1 , I reduced my target, as I was not fully convinced of my trade.

Did the same on trade 5, as I didnt want to give back the previous gains on the trade. But, that was a mistake on my part. Mistake 2. The reason is because I should not let the previous trade dictate the next trade. (Only the timing, if it was a loser). Each trade should be based on its individual merits, not what my P and L is for the day. Thinking of P and L will inhibit my trading, as today can attest.

Need to work on that....

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 VinceVirgil 
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I dindt write this, but I thinks its pretty good anyway.


A party of traders was climbing in the Alps . After several hours they became hopelessly lost. One of them studied the map for some time, turning it up and down, sighting on distant landmarks, consulting his compass, and finally the sun.

Finally he said, ' OK see that big mountain over there?'

'Yes', answered the others eagerly.

'Well, according to the map, we're standing on top of it.'



Dont you just feel like that some days?

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 Cloudy 
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So you're basically saying value investing is the most profitable for owners and managers of the investment products, i.e. mutual and hedge fund managers. I think a lot of us retailers had the sneaking suspicion Thanks for confirming. I wonder if most prop firms have disguised handles doing "research" here at futures.io (formerly BMT) also..

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 VinceVirgil 
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Cloudy View Post
So you're basically saying value investing is the most profitable for owners and managers of the investment products, i.e. mutual and hedge fund managers. I think a lot of us retailers had the sneaking suspicion Thanks for confirming. I wonder if most prop firms have disguised handles doing "research" here at futures.io (formerly BMT) also..

I think the best mutual fund managers become hedge fund managers. That is the veiw of Van Tharp, and I agree with that statement.

A Hedge Fund Manager has to produce every year, and in exchange, generally gets a bigger piece of the action. The more he makes, the more he gets.

In my limited experience, a hedge fund manager has a soft hurdle, say 5% for the client, and then gets a percentage of the gains. 20% and higher is some cases, from what I have researched.

Fund or pension plan managers earn a flat percentage, from .25% to up to 1.5% depending on the amount invested. This is on the reatail side of the business.

Wholesale is different...smaller margins, but much larger amounts.

Not sure of what the US experience is, but from my understanding, it is similar.

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 bobarian 
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I think the best mutual fund managers become hedge fund managers. That is the veiw of Van Tharp, and I agree with that statement.

A Hedge Fund Manager has to produce every year, and in exchange, generally gets a bigger piece of the action. The more he makes, the more he gets.

In my limited experience, a hedge fund manager has a soft hurdle, say 5% for the client, and then gets a percentage of the gains. 20% and higher is some cases, from what I have researched.

Fund or pension plan managers earn a flat percentage, from .25% to up to 1.5% depending on the amount invested. This is on the reatail side of the business.

Wholesale is different...smaller margins, but much larger amounts.

Not sure of what the US experience is, but from my understanding, it is similar.

i was also under the impression, that, some of the funds are so big, that is actually difficult for the managers to handle the size of the trades they need to keep up with.I mean, if you have billions in your hedge fund, is that too much?Interesting topic

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 VinceVirgil 
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bobarian View Post
i was also under the impression, that, some of the funds are so big, that is actually difficult for the managers to handle the size of the trades they need to keep up with.I mean, if you have billions in your hedge fund, is that too much?Interesting topic

I know thats one thing we look at in Canada. If a fund is too large, then it cannot respond to the market, and they have to conscious of sells because it can affect the price or the investments they hold. There are more Mutual Funds on the TSX (canadian market) than there are stocks trading on the TSX.

Hedge Funds are different. Lots of leverage, so a few billion in a hedge fund can create problems when it come to entries and exits. I expect they trade much longer, as commissions for too many moves would be a killer. An individual trading for their own account is way more nimble, and can get prices and captures moves that a big fund cannot.

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 VinceVirgil 
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I think I rather look at why traders succeed as oppossed to why traders fail.

To illustrate, what is the best way to determine money is counterfeit? You get a a bill that you know is real, and compare teh others to it.

Shouldnt we do the same with trading? Identify the successful trader and pattern our process after the success? So first, we have to determine the type of trsder we want to be. Everyoner is good at something, so we need to identify our own strengths and minimize our own weaknesses. Much easier said than done,. We thus need to rely on people we trust, because none of us can trade successfully in a vacuum. At least, I know I cannot.

Took 7 trades today...

2 stops... First trade wasnt the greatest entry, and it was premarket with little volume. Have to reevaluate my strategy for pre opening.


my second stop was just the result of too tight a stop. Had I given the trade a little more room, I would have been fine. That happens sometimes.

The good part was that I was still confident of my analysis and I re-enterred.

My last trade was a not a mistake, but anunfortunate incident. Got a phone call right when I placed a trade, from my mother who needs to have an operation. So I couldnt manage the trade, because i was on the phone. Closed it out manually for +3.

+36 on the day

Bummer I missed that last trade, or rather had too close it out early. Would have been good.

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 bobarian 
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nice job!

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 VinceVirgil 
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Took 2 more...Luchtime doldrums.

Shorted off the Double top, closed it early for +3

It was taking too long to work

Next trade touchded the EMA

+15 right near the trend line I drew earlier.

Another +18 for the day

+54

Still thinking about the missed long at 10:15....

Well, tommorrow is another day.

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 VinceVirgil 
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6 trades today...shut it down prior to the oil report, as nothing was clear from around 9:35 as that was my last trade before the report. Would have taken one up to around 10 if it was compelling, but lots of overlap right on th EMA.

Pretty self explanatory on my chart.

Only problem I had was I couldnt get my head wrapped around letting the trade run at 11:55. It was a reversal into a trend, and I had 3 kicks at it, but the vibrations made me move my stop. Total was 30 ticks, but I felt I could have been more efficient in managing the trade. I feel like I could have captured more of it than I did, if that makes any sense. I entered at 98.39, and it topped out at 99.01, for a total of 62 ticks. I knew the EMA cross would mean resistance, but given the large selloff an hour before, I felt teh bounce off the low would give me a nice trade. It did work, but it was a choppy ride. I didnt like the sideways for 5 bars. Re-enetered the trade when i saw there was more bull momentum.

I had to leave by 1:00pm for sure, so I wasnt around for the small bear trend after lunch. I marked trades I would likely have taken.

+40 ticks

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 bobarian 
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6 trades today...shut it down prior to the oil report, as nothing was clear from around 9:35 as that was my last trade before the report. Would have taken one up to around 10 if it was compelling, but lots of overlap right on th EMA.

Pretty self explanatory on my chart.

Only problem I had was I couldnt get my head wrapped around letting the trade run at 11:55. It was a reversal into a trend, and I had 3 kicks at it, but the vibrations made me move my stop. Total was 30 ticks, but I felt I could have been more efficient in managing the trade. I feel like I could have captured more of it than I did, if that makes any sense. I entered at 98.39, and it topped out at 99.01, for a total of 62 ticks. I knew the EMA cross would mean resistance, but given the large selloff an hour before, I felt teh bounce off the low would give me a nice trade. It did work, but it was a choppy ride. I didnt like the sideways for 5 bars. Re-enetered the trade when i saw there was more bull momentum.

I had to leave by 1:00pm for sure, so I wasnt around for the small bear trend after lunch. I marked trades I would likely have taken.

+40 ticks

wow..in the zone

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 PandaWarrior 
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6 trades today...shut it down prior to the oil report, as nothing was clear from around 9:35 as that was my last trade before the report. Would have taken one up to around 10 if it was compelling, but lots of overlap right on th EMA.

Pretty self explanatory on my chart.

Only problem I had was I couldnt get my head wrapped around letting the trade run at 11:55. It was a reversal into a trend, and I had 3 kicks at it, but the vibrations made me move my stop. Total was 30 ticks, but I felt I could have been more efficient in managing the trade. I feel like I could have captured more of it than I did, if that makes any sense. I entered at 98.39, and it topped out at 99.01, for a total of 62 ticks. I knew the EMA cross would mean resistance, but given the large selloff an hour before, I felt teh bounce off the low would give me a nice trade. It did work, but it was a choppy ride. I didnt like the sideways for 5 bars. Re-enetered the trade when i saw there was more bull momentum.

I had to leave by 1:00pm for sure, so I wasnt around for the small bear trend after lunch. I marked trades I would likely have taken.

+40 ticks

It was not an easy day to be sure but you did a nice job.....

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 VinceVirgil 
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Well, needless to say, for fellow CL traders, today was very challenging. Lots of waitng, and staring at the screen.
Today was a bookend day, because the 1st trade and the last trade were my 2 best trades.

My plan was to hold on today, folow my strategy, but I think I picked the wrong day to try that.

The first trade at 8:15 was my best trade of the day. I held firm, and it worked out.

The next 4 were not very good.

Of course, my SL got hit on number 5.

got 12 right at the close, but it was an up and down ride...I closed it out because it was right near the close, and I got 12 ticks.

I am not sure how I feel about today. From the opening till almost the close, I netted 4 ticks.

One successful trader I know trades 1/2 his size and doubles his stops and targets on wide ranging days. He even might go to a 3 minute or 1 minute to better look at entries. Might be something there.

I will replay the day while it is fresh in my mind to see if a shorter time frame on rangy days would help me to identify better entries.

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
It was not an easy day to be sure but you did a nice job.....

Thanks. I appreciate your comments.

I really feel I am making progress. I find the hardest part of trading for me is keeping my emotions in check throughout the session.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Thanks. I appreciate your comments.

I really feel I am making progress. I find the hardest part of trading for me is keeping my emotions in check throughout the session.


For me, trying to keep my emotions in check is near impossible. I try to acknowledge them and make decisions that are rational in spite of the emotions. Kind of like water off a ducks back, its there but not affecting them....some days are more successful than others in this regards.

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 bobarian 
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Well, needless to say, for fellow CL traders, today was very challenging. Lots of waitng, and staring at the screen.
Today was a bookend day, because the 1st trade and the last trade were my 2 best trades.

My plan was to hold on today, folow my strategy, but I think I picked the wrong day to try that.

The first trade at 8:15 was my best trade of the day. I held firm, and it worked out.

The next 4 were not very good.

Of course, my SL got hit on number 5.

got 12 right at the close, but it was an up and down ride...I closed it out because it was right near the close, and I got 12 ticks.

I am not sure how I feel about today. From the opening till almost the close, I netted 4 ticks.

One successful trader I know trades 1/2 his size and doubles his stops and targets on wide ranging days. He even might go to a 3 minute or 1 minute to better look at entries. Might be something there.

I will replay the day while it is fresh in my mind to see if a shorter time frame on rangy days would help me to identify better entries.

I think if you look at the days action from the open(9 am), the range is small, the candles are huge.Today was a typical example of what an important area like 100 can be.I thought the risk was much higher with the bigger candles.Pre market had a nice trade.I like your tenacity, going for the longer runs.On a day like today, though, smaller targets would have worked better i think, but that changes the r:r.The way i look at it, is , the market is going to stay in the range until it breaks out.Only then , can we expect to get longer runs.Expecting a longer run, before we break the range, is hoping the market will do something it hasnt been able to do.All this is my humble opinion, as your trading has been very good!

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  #170 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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1 trade +26.

I made some progress today in that I didnt move my stop as I have done earlier this week, and low and behold, the trade hit my target. Go figure!

I had to leave as well, as i had an appointment, but i would have taken 2 more trades based on my rules.

I had a bit of a late start, but my first and only trade wasnt until 10:15.

I marked the oivernight movement, and based on Gary CL Catching big waves chart, the 60 minute, I thought there was a good opportunity for a short. Something i have been fiddling with since seeing Al Brooks webinar, and his explanations of the daily charts.

Here is my chart for the day...

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
1 trade +26.

I made some progress today in that I didnt move my stop as I have done earlier this week, and low and behold, the trade hit my target. Go figure!

I had to leave as well, as i had an appointment, but i would have taken 2 more trades based on my rules.

I had a bit of a late start, but my first and only trade wasnt until 10:15.

I marked the oivernight movement, and based on Gary CL Catching big waves chart, the 60 minute, I thought there was a good opportunity for a short. Something i have been fiddling with since seeing Al Brooks webinar, and his explanations of the daily charts.

Here is my chart for the day...

I do like how you mark your charts...simple and clear....

Nice job by the way....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #172 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Spent some time with FT71 website, looking over his old webinars and reviewing his information on trading. He is a good presenter, and I like his descriptions of looking at the market as an auction and using price volume to determine areas of balance and imbalance. His statistical analysis as well as his explanation of looking inside the bar to determine direction. Very interesting, and I think it will add value to any strategy.

Trading is like training for competition. I know a few proffessional altheltes, and it is very instersting as to how they go about their profession. What we look as as fun and exiting, they look at as a job. of course they want to excell, to do their best , but one muat aslo recognise that on any given night, you cannot have your A game. You will have your b's and c's. The point is to able to recognise it early enough, and tperform within those parameters, getting the most out of it that you can. the focus should be on doing all the things right to have good performance.

Trade 1.Took an overnight trade on the 60 minute. trailing stopped out at +6 ticks. Interesting experiment, perhaps never to be repeated.

Trade 2. Plan was to think of the 100 break today, as that was the number CL was flirting with for last few sessions. I thought that today was the day.

+33

Was long at the open pre market as I had an order working. Nice pop there.

Took 2 more trades. 1 for +4 BE the other I got stopped out -18 not a bad entry, in fact, my analysis was sound, and the trade would have made my target, although would have been a while. I was fiinshed by noon anyway.

If anything, the last trade was aggressive. FT71 woiuld likely call that a monkey trade. i put the trade on cause I wanted to get 1 more trade in. the absolutley wrong way to think. Of course I got stopped out. How could it be any other way? Had a chance to get out with 14 ticks, but I chose to leave it.

A trader can learn more from his mistakes, or from the trades he didnt take, then from the ones that worked out well.

Ended up +25 on 4 trades.

At my office computer. Will post chart from today later.


Here is the chat...wth a couple problems..erased, by accident, the original chart. When I wgnt to retrieve it...gone. So this is an early one of my first trade.have the template, no script on the chart.

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 bobarian 
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Spent some time with FT71 website, looking over his old webinars and reviewing his information on trading. He is a good presenter, and I like his descriptions of looking at the market as an auction and using price volume to determine areas of balance and imbalance. His statistical analysis as well as his explanation of looking inside the bar to determine direction. Very interesting, and I think it will add value to any strategy.

Trading is like training for competition. I know a few proffessional altheltes, and it is very instersting as to how they go about their profession. What we look as as fun and exiting, they look at as a job. of course they want to excell, to do their best , but one muat aslo recognise that on any given night, you cannot have your A game. You will have your b's and c's. The point is to able to recognise it early enough, and tperform within those parameters, getting the most out of it that you can. the focus should be on doing all the things right to have good performance.

Trade 1.Took an overnight trade on the 60 minute. trailing stopped out at +6 ticks. Interesting experiment, perhaps never to be repeated.

Trade 2. Plan was to think of the 100 break today, as that was the number CL was flirting with for last few sessions. I thought that today was the day.

+33

Was long at the open pre market as I had an order working. Nice pop there.

Took 2 more trades. 1 for +4 BE the other I got stopped out -18 not a bad entry, in fact, my analysis was sound, and the trade would have made my target, although would have been a while. I was fiinshed by noon anyway.

If anything, the last trade was aggressive. FT71 woiuld likely call that a monkey trade. i put the trade on cause I wanted to get 1 more trade in. the absolutley wrong way to think. Of course I got stopped out. How could it be any other way? Had a chance to get out with 14 ticks, but I chose to leave it.

A trader can learn more from his mistakes, or from the trades he didnt take, then from the ones that worked out well.

Ended up +25 on 4 trades.

At my office computer. Will post chart from today later.

when i was trading equities, the mentor(jea yu) would talk about time of day and probabilities.Basically, when the vol and liquidity are the best, typically the first hour, your best setup will work ,say, 80% of the time.Take that same setup when the liquidity isnt pumping, and the follow thru changes, perhaps 50-60%.Now this is an estimation, but i believe it has merit.Another thing to think about, is , people like perrry and al brooks, have a very high success rate..but they typically scalp atleast part of their position.Obviously, that would improve their win/loss ratio.Their answer, is trade big size, versus trying for big runs.This is such a grey area, and every trader personally decides what he or she will use for money mgmt...............so, adjusting to time of day, might be a consideration...Also, being confident in your setups seems to come easy to you..which is great, and you seem to be able to steer through turbulent markets well.We all struggle with certain areas in trading(i seem to struggle in all of them), but one thing i have learned, is that the answer typically lies within ourselves.We have to decide for ourselves what targets we will be happy with, and what risk to take on.Take some time, off the computer, and just think about what is rerasonable, and what makes sense, and what you would be happy with.Now the market changes every day, so , each day, does it make sense to adjust targets?im not sure, but it seems to me that some of the gurus get their easy ticks first, then hold on to runners.Theyre not trying to get the whole move , just a part of it.Just some thoughts from a trader trying to put it together!

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  #174 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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bobarian View Post
when i was trading equities, the mentor(jea yu) would talk about time of day and probabilities.Basically, when the vol and liquidity are the best, typically the first hour, your best setup will work ,say, 80% of the time.Take that same setup when the liquidity isnt pumping, and the follow thru changes, perhaps 50-60%.Now this is an estimation, but i believe it has merit.Another thing to think about, is , people like perrry and al brooks, have a very high success rate..but they typically scalp atleast part of their position.Obviously, that would improve their win/loss ratio.Their answer, is trade big size, versus trying for big runs.This is such a grey area, and every trader personally decides what he or she will use for money mgmt...............so, adjusting to time of day, might be a consideration...Also, being confident in your setups seems to come easy to you..which is great, and you seem to be able to steer through turbulent markets well.We all struggle with certain areas in trading(i seem to struggle in all of them), but one thing i have learned, is that the answer typically lies within ourselves.We have to decide for ourselves what targets we will be happy with, and what risk to take on.Take some time, off the computer, and just think about what is rerasonable, and what makes sense, and what you would be happy with.Now the market changes every day, so , each day, does it make sense to adjust targets?im not sure, but it seems to me that some of the gurus get their easy ticks first, then hold on to runners.Theyre not trying to get the whole move , just a part of it.Just some thoughts from a trader trying to put it together!

Makes sense, take ticks off, hold on to a runner. I was ahead 14 ticks, let it come all the way back and hit my stop. now, given the time of day, and the thinner volume, was it prudent? Was it a big blunder, or just a trade that didnt work out very well? I think the later, as I am not upset over it. It should have worked, in fact, I will review it in greater detail tonight, but it looks as I got stopped by just a tick or 2.

Not going to sweat it...its just 1 trade. But, if its 2 or 3 back to back...

The progress I have been making is with patience. Sure, maybe I rushed that last trade, but, a month ago, i was taking 10 to 15 trades a day. Now, its 5 or less.

Thanks for your comment.

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  #175 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Yesterday, i stated 5 or less trades seemed reasonable.

8 trades today.

Today was a tight range day for the morning on the CL. barely 125 ticks, which I am not used to. had anumber of scratch trades today, because of the tight range, I was more agressive with my stops to BE.

Had a couple of good trades that worked in my favour, and got stopped 2 times.

3 trades were BE. Turned out to be a good thing, because of the ranginess.

2 good trades that went for +20 ticks.

2 full stops one for -15 one for -12. Dont see how I would have done anything different on those 2 trades. they just didnt work the way I expected.

All and all it was not an easy session.

Ended up +32 ticks, which I am happy about.

Tommorrow I have a plan, as I beleive we are due for a breakout this week. either to upside or downside from between 100.50-101.50.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Well, today just wasnt my day.

Missed an entry as it was early.

Then I was stopped on 2 trades.

Small positive trade, then another stop. 3 full stops.

That finishes till after the news this morning. Just not seeing the chart right. Its a news day anyway, so I'll just watch, a least till after 11:00.

-32 ticks so far. Not my best day, but, just one of those days. Actually, I am not really upset about it. more resigned that it just didnt work. I'll keep working at it, and I know it will come around.

Going to look at the ES today...Another experiment...

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 VinceVirgil 
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Thought I would put further thoughts down about my trades today.

Was I a bit perturbed about missing the first trade setup, knowing that if I had taken it it would have gotten my target. I decidedly was not thinking about it when I took my 1st trade of the day. Recently, I may have taken a trade after feeling a little dissapointed, but while I was aware of the missed trade, it did not influence my decision for subsequent trades. I acknowledged the missed trade, but I kept it in its place. FT21 would say, I kept the monkey in its cage. Even though it failed I would have taken it again if that very same trade came up.

Trade 2 was just time and unforseen circumstance. stop got hit by 1 tick on an entry short. Wouldnt have been a target maker, but would have been scratch at least.

Trade 3 was my biggest problem on the day. Because of the 2 full stops earlier, i closed the trade out earlier, on a pull back to get some profits, and it went on to my target price.

Last trade was a second entry that I felt would bounce off the EMA. Nope...

Took 2 more trades after the oil report at 10:30 These wernt on my chart, but they were reasonable trades. Both + 6, so basically 2 more scratch trades. I shut down for good then. The last trade was working for almost an 3/4 hour before I pulled the pin on it.

Has to be one of the tightest range days on the CL in over 2 months. One thing is ussually the case. After days like today, may be in for some heavy movement over the next couple of seesion as the market digests the information of today.

Going to be ready for it tomorrow, putting my game face on ...

-32 this morning and 2 trades +6 puts me at -20 for the day on 6 trades.

Resistance looks to me to be 101.90 to 102.05.

Not exactly one for the record books, but it could have been worse. Didnt hit my daily loss limit.

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 VinceVirgil 
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2 nice moves early, including a measured move pre market. Anopther around the news, which I exited becuaese it was taking a while to develop.

Was out by 11, set up a new account with PFC Best on my laptop. Going to demo it for now, to see if I like their data feed on Ninja Trader.

+8+3-2+10=+19

Good move after 11, but I was at my other office,

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 Cloudy 
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Nice going VinceVirgil. I was a tough last week I believe for many traders, Al Brooks included. These days he mostly scalps ES.

I had tried a demo of PFG Best early last year. While I liked the feed much better than ThinkOrSwim was then, I had only demoed on TradeNavigator based on a former instructor's recommendation. It just seemed a bit rougher, un-updated, and older than I liked. I didn't know they have Ninjatrader now. But otherwise I heard it's fast and good.

About comparing trading to individual competitive sports. I would think the same. Sometimes I think of tennis. How most players in the ATP global pool are not in the top 20 or even 50, yet they still perform well enough to make a living, and sometimes they have great days and position in a major. But maybe just one aspect of it. I like how you compared trading to surfing also, like knowing when to stay out of inclement weather and poor waves. And also not being at one's best performance, yet focusing on getting through the day, i.e. maybe bowling or golf.

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 VinceVirgil 
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3 moves that I could see on the CL today. Contract rolling over, so I traded the April contract. Seemed to be more volume. Still, I was cautious again today.

Been looking at adding market profile to enhance my trading. I think it will help to look inside the bars as they are being painted to provide insight to where buyers and sellers are. And to recognise what to avoid in terms of entries and exits.

5 trades, E+1 on 1 trade.

Best trade a short at 103.48.

+1+5+25+10+10=+51

totals for the week.

13.02.2012 +25

14.02.2012 +32

15.02.2012 -20

16.02.2012 +19

17.02.2012 +51
______________

Week +107
============

Is this good? It seems ok to me, considering the challenges of the week.

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 VinceVirgil 
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I not at my home office. In fact, i am on the road, staying at my relatives in Ottawa, Canada. My mother is having a medical procedure, so, as her closest living relative, I came to help. Its not really that bad, as I have a great internet conection and my laptop, and I am quite comfortable. It a nice neighborhood, very large homes, in the area, and his place has 6 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms. Steam room, treadmill, wieght room...full stocked minibar..almost like the Ritz Carlton, except I have to make my own bed.

I was in and out today, but I had time to take 2 trades,.

Trade 1 7:04 +4

Trade 2 12:07 +28

+32 on the day. On 2 trades, I will take that.

Bullish market on the CL today. maybe its the breakout of the last few sessions of narrow range trading.

Going to be cautious tommorrow, and very conservative with my stops.

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 Big Mike 
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I hope your mom feels better soon.

Mike

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  #183 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Big Mike View Post
I hope your mom feels better soon.

Mike

Thanks for your concern.

Its open heart surgery, but, shes otherwise very healthy, so its as routine as open heart surgery can be. Thats all they perform in this hospital. She is in very good hands.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Only took 4 trades today.

i restricted my trades which \i thought were the very best setups, howver< I was quick to move my stop if the trade was against me. Its really a diffcult thing, to recognise when the trade isnt going your way immediatley. However, if the point is not to get klilled on the losers, and let your winners run, then so be it. All I need is 1 good runner a day, the rest can be break even.

Competetive golf is very much like trading. The goal for the pros is to birdie the par 5's and par everything else. What does that mean. It means dont expect to birdie the 450 yard par 4 monster. If you get a Par on the toughest hole on the course, then you likely have gained a stroke on the field.

Birdie the four par 5's, par everything else, thats a 68.

Thats 1 birdie in 4.5 holes.

So, 1 good trade, 3.5 Be or better = great trading.

That truly seems achievable to me.

+25 ticks today...

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  #185 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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Only took 4 trades today.

i restricted my trades which \i thought were the very best setups, howver< I was quick to move my stop if the trade was against me. Its really a diffcult thing, to recognise when the trade isnt going your way immediatley. However, if the point is not to get klilled on the losers, and let your winners run, then so be it. All I need is 1 good runner a day, the rest can be break even.

Competetive golf is very much like trading. The goal for the pros is to birdie the par 5's and par everything else. What does that mean. It means dont expect to birdie the 450 yard par 4 monster. If you get a Par on the toughest hole on the course, then you likely have gained a stroke on the field.

Birdie the four par 5's, par everything else, thats a 68.

Thats 1 birdie in 4.5 holes.

So, 1 good trade, 3.5 Be or better = great trading.

That truly seems achievable to me.

+25 ticks today...

nice job...the premarket was nicer..after 9am, it got real mushy.

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  #186 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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Today i had a few more trades than usual, all in the name of cutting losers short. There were acouple of trades that I could have given more room, but the chart was a little cluttered except for a sell off shortly after the opening. Hit faily heavy resistance at 106 on the way back up, and as a result, I tried to sneak up on a breakout above 106, thats why the bunch of trades around the EMA. Didnt point them out, they were all for the looking for the same pop up. Prices did break to the upside above 106, but only after I packed it in for the day.

1 loser for -13 points. Got taken out on the pull back. It was the tright move, as it never came around

+ 36 on the day.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Still in Ottawa, the capital of Canada. Staying ith my cousin, and his house is in the area of Rockcliff, which is very close to the 24 Sussex, the Prime Ministers residence. All the diplomats from the various embassies have residences around here. Homes worth millions of dollars. Intersting to see them...I'll take a few pictures and post them.

My cousin was in the Toronto Globe and Mail as teh 36th most impotant person in Canadian sport. Hes tests protective equipmet as he is a concussion specialist, and concussions are big news today. He researches and tests better designs for better head protection for sport and recreation. Mostly hockey, football, motorsports, etc. Going to see his lab this afternoon.

First day of uninterrupted trading in a few days. My mother finally went into surgery this morning. Yesterday it was postponed because the team had an emergency the night before, and you dont want a tired surgeon operating on your heart. Takes 4 to 6 hours, they will call when she is in recovery.

OK, enough of what happenning personally.

5 trades.

+46 on the day. Ask if you have any questions.

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  #188 (permalink)
 trs3042 
Holland, Michigan
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Still in Ottawa, the capital of Canada. Staying ith my cousin, and his house is in the area of Rockcliff, which is very close to the 24 Sussex, the Prime Ministers residence. All the diplomats from the various embassies have residences around here. Homes worth millions of dollars. Intersting to see them...I'll take a few pictures and post them.

My cousin was in the Toronto Globe and Mail as teh 36th most impotant person in Canadian sport. Hes tests protective equipmet as he is a concussion specialist, and concussions are big news today. He researches and tests better designs for better head protection for sport and recreation. Mostly hockey, football, motorsports, etc. Going to see his lab this afternoon.

First day of uninterrupted trading in a few days. My mother finally went into surgery this morning. Yesterday it was postponed because the team had an emergency the night before, and you dont want a tired surgeon operating on your heart. Takes 4 to 6 hours, they will call when she is in recovery.

OK, enough of what happenning personally.

5 trades.

+46 on the day. Ask if you have any questions.

Hello @VinceVirgil,

My thoughts and prayers go out to you and your Mom.

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #189 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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VinceVirgil View Post

5 trades.

+46 on the day. Ask if you have any questions.


46% of the day's range is pretty darn good. Congrats...

prayers are with you and your mom......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #190 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Today i had a few more trades than usual, all in the name of cutting losers short. There were acouple of trades that I could have given more room, but the chart was a little cluttered except for a sell off shortly after the opening. Hit faily heavy resistance at 106 on the way back up, and as a result, I tried to sneak up on a breakout above 106, thats why the bunch of trades around the EMA. Didnt point them out, they were all for the looking for the same pop up. Prices did break to the upside above 106, but only after I packed it in for the day.

1 loser for -13 points. Got taken out on the pull back. It was the tright move, as it never came around

+ 36 on the day.


In what tick range do you cut losers short?

also which BarCounter indy do you use?

Tia

I hope your mother fairs well


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #191 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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tderrick View Post
In what tick range do you cut losers short?

also which BarCounter indy do you use?

Tia

I hope your mother fairs well

Thank you for your concern about my mother.

Thats a very good question about my stop. It depends. I start at 15 ticks, but my experience has been if pulls back from my entry, 8 to 12 ticks, I am thinking it isnt with me and wont go. Thats off the hop. If the trade is with me, I might tighten it on the + side, with 15 ticks manual trailing stop. I try to keep it wide enough so that slippage is kept to a mnimum.

If its a range day, then I'll tighten to BE +1 to +5. Thats where I try to cut them. If I get a hard stop at -10, I really try to get more conservative and focused with my next trade, and I try to wait a minimum 15 minutes, unless the setup is punching me in the face through my screen.

Today was an example of the tightening thing. First trade was positive from my entry, so I gave it some room, and it came back to hit me at -11. That just didnt work out.

I was thinking that we would get hard resistance at 110 today. As it turns out, it happened almost like that. Best move was trade 3 and 4, then it was pretty difficult to get a read. Trade 4 was a loss, but I was ahead almost 10 ticks on that before it backed up. Despite the ranginess and the overlapping candle, I thought it had potential, so i didnt tighten it too much, stopped at -9.

Same with trade 5...small gain, but it was a see saw excursion. It was ahead 12 ticks, but i could only get 4 out of it, stopped on the PB.

I shut it down after that. I felt fortunate to get the 2 moves that I did.

I hope I have answered your question.

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  #192 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Thank you for your concern about my mother.

Thats a very good question about my stop. It depends. I start at 15 ticks, but my experience has been if pulls back from my entry, 8 to 12 ticks, I am thinking it isnt with me and wont go. Thats off the hop. If the trade is with me, I might tighten it on the + side, with 15 ticks manual trailing stop. I try to keep it wide enough so that slippage is kept to a mnimum.

If its a range day, then I'll tighten to BE +1 to +5. Thats where I try to cut them. If I get a hard stop at -10, I really try to get more conservative and focused with my next trade, and I try to wait a minimum 15 minutes, unless the setup is punching me in the face through my screen.

Today was an example of the tightening thing. First trade was positive from my entry, so I gave it some room, and it came back to hit me at -11. That just didnt work out.

I was thinking that we would get hard resistance at 110 today. As it turns out, it happened almost like that. Best move was trade 3 and 4, then it was pretty difficult to get a read. Trade 4 was a loss, but I was ahead almost 10 ticks on that before it backed up. Despite the ranginess and the overlapping candle, I thought it had potential, so i didnt tighten it too much, stopped at -9.

Same with trade 5...small gain, but it was a see saw excursion. It was ahead 12 ticks, but i could only get 4 out of it, stopped on the PB.

I shut it down after that. I felt fortunate to get the 2 moves that I did.

I hope I have answered your question.


Thanks for your insight on stops...

Don't worry about the bar counter.. I found a useful one from Felton


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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  #193 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Flew bcak home form Ottawa yeasterday afternoon. Right into 12 inches of snow and a dead SUV battery.

Mothers doing real well. She was out of bed and walking around a bit. physio therapists have a routine they want her to complete before they release her, and she is well on her way. they seem t thik she is doing very well at this point. My Mom will stay for few more days, and then fly back to Thunder Bay. All in all it is looking pretty fine.

Read a couple of books last week, on how our intuitions deceive us as well as on the phsychology of trading. It was interesting stuff, and has given me a renewed perspective on how to trade.

My cousin in ottawa is a businessman first, and the Associate Dean at the Faculty of Health Science at the University of Ottawa. second He is a world renowned researcher in the area of concussions in sport and has published over 50 papers and holds a number of patents for hockey equipment.He consults for the NHL and the NFL and his lab at the university does research in that area. This is a reconstrution of the Sydney Crosy hit to the head at the University of Ottawa neuro trauma lab. I was there on Friday. Very cool stuff. They were working on punch while I was there, but the same general idea.

Hit to the head: a similar one to Sidney Crosby’s (reconstruction) - Video - Macleans.ca

We talked a lot about sports science, because that is his area of expertise. But it occuurred to me that he is a businessman, just like any other. I am in the business of trading. My brother was with us. He is in the business of looking for oil in Alberta. Fairly successfull as well. We talked a lot about our businesses.

Good day today. I made an entry mistake that took me out of a trade, but I reversed the position and got back in. I was very much at ease today, very calm in my trading, and not anxious at all. I can describe it as patient, even when i made the exit error.

+45 on 6 trades, including the mistaken exit.

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  #194 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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try this teat....and do the very best you can...concentrate

selective attention test - YouTube

See how you honestly did.

50% percent of those that took it failed.

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 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Flew bcak home form Ottawa yeasterday afternoon. Right into 12 inches of snow and a dead SUV battery.

Mothers doing real well. She was out of bed and walking around a bit. physio therapists have a routine they want her to complete before they release her, and she is well on her way. they seem t thik she is doing very well at this point. My Mom will stay for few more days, and then fly back to Thunder Bay. All in all it is looking pretty fine.

Read a couple of books last week, on how our intuitions deceive us as well as on the phsychology of trading. It was interesting stuff, and has given me a renewed perspective on how to trade.

My cousin in ottawa is a businessman first, and the Associate Dean at the Faculty of Health Science at the University of Ottawa. second He is a world renowned researcher in the area of concussions in sport and has published over 50 papers and holds a number of patents for hockey equipment.He consults for the NHL and the NFL and his lab at the university does research in that area. This is a reconstrution of the Sydney Crosy hit to the head at the University of Ottawa neuro trauma lab. I was there on Friday. Very cool stuff. They were working on punch while I was there, but the same general idea.

Hit to the head: a similar one to Sidney Crosby’s (reconstruction) - Video - Macleans.ca

We talked a lot about sports science, because that is his area of expertise. But it occuurred to me that he is a businessman, just like any other. I am in the business of trading. My brother was with us. He is in the business of looking for oil in Alberta. Fairly successfull as well. We talked a lot about our businesses.

Good day today. I made an entry mistake that took me out of a trade, but I reversed the position and got back in. I was very much at ease today, very calm in my trading, and not anxious at all. I can describe it as patient, even when i made the exit error.

+45 on 6 trades, including the mistaken exit.

graet job, as usual

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  #196 (permalink)
 Private Banker 
La Jolla, CA
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Good day today. I made an entry mistake that took me out of a trade, but I reversed the position and got back in. I was very much at ease today, very calm in my trading, and not anxious at all. I can describe it as patient, even when i made the exit error.

+45 on 6 trades, including the mistaken exit.

Just thought I would provide a different perspective to look at for today's session. I hope you don't mind, I marked up your chart to display my examples. Feel free to answer my questions if you like but don't feel on the spot or anything, just some brain storming ideas for you. I respect your learning process, etc.

You appear to have taken a few trades that were pretty good. Your first long entry was good but a bit late into the move which is fine. What did you see that prompted the long entry? Because the market was in a down trend, I would think looking for a short opportunity would make the most sense. Either way, the trade looks like it worked out for a small move.

The two short entries you had after that were dangerous in that you were selling into support. Which was displayed several times in the past. Of course, the market could've broken down from there but as a general rule of thumb, make sure to sell resistance areas and buy support areas should you choose to establish a position in a particular area.

The third trade which was a long was your best entry of the day. Perfect entry area of buying support. I'm not sure what the other arrows were, re-entries or additions? Anyway, your third trade was a great example of buying support.

Notice today's RTH session was more of an inside day (vs. the previous trading session) which is an ideal day for playing the ranges/standard deviation levels. At some point, the market will fall out of balance which it did after the pit close.

You obviously did a great job from a profitability stand point and remained calm which is excellent. My intent for showing you the marked up chart is to provide examples on how you can turn a 45 tick day into a 1.45 tick or 2.45 tick day by trading areas of significance and scaling out while utilizing a trailing stop to try and capture at least 70% - 80% of the move. The amount you give up on your trailer (20% - 30%) is covered by your scale out areas which enhances your overall return while taking risk off along the way. Also, make sure to develop a plan before the trading day starts. For example, based on the market's price action, if it does this, I'll look to do that. Today was a day I had anticipated a pullback based on the last few days of strong moves higher. The market opened (RTH) at or slightly above Friday's value area which made it ripe for selling. As soon as RTH opened, you can see that sellers stepped in to move it back into the prior trading session's value area. So, the bias was down. That's just my thoughts of course but I think it's extremely important to develop a plan before going into the market every day. Just taking a trade based on a small wiggle in the market will most likely not result in getting into a big runner or even worse have you take a loss.

Also, I noticed that you're using the initial balance levels. I would recommend setting the session to the RTH session as that's where a majority of the volume comes into the market and makes the RTH initial balance more significant than the over night's. I believe Fat Tails provided an overview of how to set that up. Make sure you have the most recent updated version as this will allow you to display the RTH session on a ETH charted session. I've attached an example of what I'm referring to. Notice how price was contained within the day's balance for a majority of the RTH session. Not sure what happened after RTH but the market tanked! Any way, hope this is helpful.

Cheers,
PB

Attached Thumbnails
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Name:	CL 04-12 (5 Min)  2_27_2012-2.jpg
Views:	110
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  #197 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Private Banker View Post
Just thought I would provide a different perspective to look at for today's session. I hope you don't mind, I marked up your chart to display my examples. Feel free to answer my questions if you like but don't feel on the spot or anything, just some brain storming ideas for you. I respect your learning process, etc.

You appear to have taken a few trades that were pretty good. Your first long entry was good but a bit late into the move which is fine. What did you see that prompted the long entry? Because the market was in a down trend, I would think looking for a short opportunity would make the most sense. Either way, the trade looks like it worked out for a small move.

The two short entries you had after that were dangerous in that you were selling into support. Which was displayed several times in the past. Of course, the market could've broken down from there but as a general rule of thumb, make sure to sell resistance areas and buy support areas should you choose to establish a position in a particular area.

The third trade which was a long was your best entry of the day. Perfect entry area of buying support. I'm not sure what the other arrows were, re-entries or additions? Anyway, your third trade was a great example of buying support.

Notice today's RTH session was more of an inside day (vs. the previous trading session) which is an ideal day for playing the ranges/standard deviation levels. At some point, the market will fall out of balance which it did after the pit close.

You obviously did a great job from a profitability stand point and remained calm which is excellent. My intent for showing you the marked up chart is to provide examples on how you can turn a 45 tick day into a 1.45 tick or 2.45 tick day by trading areas of significance and scaling out while utilizing a trailing stop to try and capture at least 70% - 80% of the move. The amount you give up on your trailer (20% - 30%) is covered by your scale out areas which enhances your overall return while taking risk off along the way. Also, make sure to develop a plan before the trading day starts. For example, based on the market's price action, if it does this, I'll look to do that. Today was a day I had anticipated a pullback based on the last few days of strong moves higher. The market opened (RTH) at or slightly above Friday's value area which made it ripe for selling. As soon as RTH opened, you can see that sellers stepped in to move it back into the prior trading session's value area. So, the bias was down. That's just my thoughts of course but I think it's extremely important to develop a plan before going into the market every day. Just taking a trade based on a small wiggle in the market will most likely not result in getting into a big runner or even worse have you take a loss.

Also, I noticed that you're using the initial balance levels. I would recommend setting the session to the RTH session as that's where a majority of the volume comes into the market and makes the RTH initial balance more significant than the over night's. I believe Fat Tails provided an overview of how to set that up. Make sure you have the most recent updated version as this will allow you to display the RTH session on a ETH charted session. I've attached an example of what I'm referring to. Notice how price was contained within the day's balance for a majority of the RTH session. Not sure what happened after RTH but the market tanked! Any way, hope this is helpful.

Cheers,
PB

Thanks for your coments, PB.

On my first entry, I saw a couple of things that encouraged me to go long. The first bull bar after the bear bar with the long tail was a strong signal, indicating support. But, I follow a general rule that reversals nearly always fail at the first attempt, and we got a PB, but the long tail indicated buyers took over. I entered on the close of the small doji, as I anticipated it was in reversal. Got taken out on the pull back with only 6 ticks, but I was ahead 17. I had moved my stop, because I wasnt sure if it was going to break and hold the EMA, and, I didn't want my first trade of the day to be a loser.

I see now the short entries were ill advised. I figured they werent the right way to go, given the previous bars, so i closed them out early (good thing).

My last trades were all wie reversal/countertren, perhaps to test open, but I just perceived that one we came close top the LOD, and I had confirmation of support, we would go higher.

VV

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