Spent some time with FT71 website, looking over his old webinars and reviewing his information on trading. He is a good presenter, and I like his descriptions of looking at the market as an auction and using price volume to determine areas of balance and imbalance. His statistical analysis as well as his explanation of looking inside the bar to determine direction. Very interesting, and I think it will add value to any strategy.
Trading is like training for competition. I know a few proffessional altheltes, and it is very instersting as to how they go about their profession. What we look as as fun and exiting, they look at as a job. of course they want to excell, to do their best , but one muat aslo recognise that on any given night, you cannot have your A game. You will have your b's and c's. The point is to able to recognise it early enough, and tperform within those parameters, getting the most out of it that you can. the focus should be on doing all the things right to have good performance.
Trade 1.Took an overnight trade on the 60 minute. trailing stopped out at +6 ticks. Interesting experiment, perhaps never to be repeated.
Trade 2. Plan was to think of the 100 break today, as that was the number CL was flirting with for last few sessions. I thought that today was the day.
Was long at the open pre market as I had an order working. Nice pop there.
Took 2 more trades. 1 for +4 BE the other I got stopped out -18 not a bad entry, in fact, my analysis was sound, and the trade would have made my target, although would have been a while. I was fiinshed by noon anyway.
If anything, the last trade was aggressive. FT71 woiuld likely call that a monkey trade. i put the trade on cause I wanted to get 1 more trade in. the absolutley wrong way to think. Of course I got stopped out. How could it be any other way? Had a chance to get out with 14 ticks, but I chose to leave it.
A trader can learn more from his mistakes, or from the trades he didnt take, then from the ones that worked out well.
Ended up +25 on 4 trades.
At my office computer. Will post chart from today later.
Here is the chat...wth a couple problems..erased, by accident, the original chart. When I wgnt to retrieve it...gone. So this is an early one of my first trade.have the template, no script on the chart.
Last edited by VinceVirgil; February 13th, 2012 at 07:41 PM.
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when i was trading equities, the mentor(jea yu) would talk about time of day and probabilities.Basically, when the vol and liquidity are the best, typically the first hour, your best setup will work ,say, 80% of the time.Take that same setup when the liquidity isnt pumping, and the follow thru changes, perhaps 50-60%.Now this is an estimation, but i believe it has merit.Another thing to think about, is , people like perrry and al brooks, have a very high success rate..but they typically scalp atleast part of their position.Obviously, that would improve their win/loss ratio.Their answer, is trade big size, versus trying for big runs.This is such a grey area, and every trader personally decides what he or she will use for money mgmt...............so, adjusting to time of day, might be a consideration...Also, being confident in your setups seems to come easy to you..which is great, and you seem to be able to steer through turbulent markets well.We all struggle with certain areas in trading(i seem to struggle in all of them), but one thing i have learned, is that the answer typically lies within ourselves.We have to decide for ourselves what targets we will be happy with, and what risk to take on.Take some time, off the computer, and just think about what is rerasonable, and what makes sense, and what you would be happy with.Now the market changes every day, so , each day, does it make sense to adjust targets?im not sure, but it seems to me that some of the gurus get their easy ticks first, then hold on to runners.Theyre not trying to get the whole move , just a part of it.Just some thoughts from a trader trying to put it together!
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Makes sense, take ticks off, hold on to a runner. I was ahead 14 ticks, let it come all the way back and hit my stop. now, given the time of day, and the thinner volume, was it prudent? Was it a big blunder, or just a trade that didnt work out very well? I think the later, as I am not upset over it. It should have worked, in fact, I will review it in greater detail tonight, but it looks as I got stopped by just a tick or 2.
Not going to sweat it...its just 1 trade. But, if its 2 or 3 back to back...
The progress I have been making is with patience. Sure, maybe I rushed that last trade, but, a month ago, i was taking 10 to 15 trades a day. Now, its 5 or less.
Thanks for your comment.
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Yesterday, i stated 5 or less trades seemed reasonable.
8 trades today.
Today was a tight range day for the morning on the CL. barely 125 ticks, which I am not used to. had anumber of scratch trades today, because of the tight range, I was more agressive with my stops to BE.
Had a couple of good trades that worked in my favour, and got stopped 2 times.
3 trades were BE. Turned out to be a good thing, because of the ranginess.
2 good trades that went for +20 ticks.
2 full stops one for -15 one for -12. Dont see how I would have done anything different on those 2 trades. they just didnt work the way I expected.
All and all it was not an easy session.
Ended up +32 ticks, which I am happy about.
Tommorrow I have a plan, as I beleive we are due for a breakout this week. either to upside or downside from between 100.50-101.50.
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Small positive trade, then another stop. 3 full stops.
That finishes till after the news this morning. Just not seeing the chart right. Its a news day anyway, so I'll just watch, a least till after 11:00.
-32 ticks so far. Not my best day, but, just one of those days. Actually, I am not really upset about it. more resigned that it just didnt work. I'll keep working at it, and I know it will come around.
Going to look at the ES today...Another experiment...
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Thought I would put further thoughts down about my trades today.
Was I a bit perturbed about missing the first trade setup, knowing that if I had taken it it would have gotten my target. I decidedly was not thinking about it when I took my 1st trade of the day. Recently, I may have taken a trade after feeling a little dissapointed, but while I was aware of the missed trade, it did not influence my decision for subsequent trades. I acknowledged the missed trade, but I kept it in its place. FT21 would say, I kept the monkey in its cage. Even though it failed I would have taken it again if that very same trade came up.
Trade 2 was just time and unforseen circumstance. stop got hit by 1 tick on an entry short. Wouldnt have been a target maker, but would have been scratch at least.
Trade 3 was my biggest problem on the day. Because of the 2 full stops earlier, i closed the trade out earlier, on a pull back to get some profits, and it went on to my target price.
Last trade was a second entry that I felt would bounce off the EMA. Nope...
Took 2 more trades after the oil report at 10:30 These wernt on my chart, but they were reasonable trades. Both + 6, so basically 2 more scratch trades. I shut down for good then. The last trade was working for almost an 3/4 hour before I pulled the pin on it.
Has to be one of the tightest range days on the CL in over 2 months. One thing is ussually the case. After days like today, may be in for some heavy movement over the next couple of seesion as the market digests the information of today.
Going to be ready for it tomorrow, putting my game face on ...
-32 this morning and 2 trades +6 puts me at -20 for the day on 6 trades.
Nice going VinceVirgil. I was a tough last week I believe for many traders, Al Brooks included. These days he mostly scalps ES.
I had tried a demo of PFG Best early last year. While I liked the feed much better than ThinkOrSwim was then, I had only demoed on TradeNavigator based on a former instructor's recommendation. It just seemed a bit rougher, un-updated, and older than I liked. I didn't know they have Ninjatrader now. But otherwise I heard it's fast and good.
About comparing trading to individual competitive sports. I would think the same. Sometimes I think of tennis. How most players in the ATP global pool are not in the top 20 or even 50, yet they still perform well enough to make a living, and sometimes they have great days and position in a major. But maybe just one aspect of it. I like how you compared trading to surfing also, like knowing when to stay out of inclement weather and poor waves. And also not being at one's best performance, yet focusing on getting through the day, i.e. maybe bowling or golf.
Last edited by Cloudy; February 17th, 2012 at 03:19 AM.
3 moves that I could see on the CL today. Contract rolling over, so I traded the April contract. Seemed to be more volume. Still, I was cautious again today.
Been looking at adding market profile to enhance my trading. I think it will help to look inside the bars as they are being painted to provide insight to where buyers and sellers are. And to recognise what to avoid in terms of entries and exits.