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Honestly, I think to be a trader you have to be a terrible business person. Business is all about manipulation, arbitrage, relationships (negative and positve) etc.. A lot of fakeness in business and we have built ourselves into beings that feign interest in things we really have no interest at all!
In trading (IMO), you don't have any of that. You just let the market tell you how it wants to dance and you let go of any other 'interpretations' of life. You don't need to figure out if there is a deeper meaning or you don't have to create a different intonation in your voice to 'sell' an idea or get momentum on something or 'lead' properly.
I believe that to be successful in business you have to be 'fake'. If you are too ego-based in trading it will ruin you.
I believe in business you don't always get the equivalent return for who you really are. Greedy bastards tend to do well in business (from some people's measure) even if they do not provide the value.
In trading, Greedy Bastards get eaten up. Hence, my journey of unlearning to be a greedy bastard.
When I opened the charts this morning I had a green Long signal with the 2 other indicators agreeing.
The price was nearing the top of my regression channel so I waited for a short or short counter trend signal.
When I got the short signal (Red Arrow) I entered the position.
Its down a way in the candle because I didn't want to enter until I got the arrow confirmation despite the turn down of the awesome oscillator.
The price continued to move down quickly and in less than a minute I had +11.1 pips which was the target.
Thanks sorge, for providing the statistics of your method. I've been using the NinjaTrader (DOM) for many years and especially like the analytics within the software. Your post in response to my questions reveals several avenues for further questions, I hope you'll indulge me.
If I do a little math of the numbers you've provided I come up with the following:
86 Winning trades = 68.8% of 125 trades since March 2011
Average Winning trade = 1.46 pips
This average winning trade size of 1.46 pips would concern me and force me to ask myself two questions. (1) Do I immediately place my entry order when I get an entry signal, or am I hesitating when I get the signal looking for further confirmation from something other than my predefined signals? This hesitation will often lessen the anticipated range of potential profit, sometimes quickly and sometimes totally. And (2) am I intentionally closing out my winning trades to soon for reasons other than my valid exit criteria or am I allowing my winning trades to remain working in the market to their full potential??
My next obvious question is, what is the average MFE (maximum favorable excursion) on this sample of 125 trades? As you know, the difference between the two will provide you with a pretty good idea of the amount of pips the system is leaving in the market. Be aware however the NT MFE calculation is terminated when you exit the trade, if prices continued on in the favorable excursion without you those pips are not reflected in the NT calculation. I'll be the first to agree that knowing when to take profits is the nemesis of trading in general. And I've read in your thread you are aware of, and are addressing these two issues. I use hard targets myself, but cutting the occasional runner off at the knees is never a pleasant experience.
- I get out way too early. Usually my entries are very good.
I will set a target, the price will retrace after having moved into profit and stop me. I then tighten the target for the next trade and that target is hit and the price will then continue in my direction and leave many pips on the table.
- As far as the MFE, I haven't looked at that in the past.
I entered the first trade on a green arrow in an up trend. I didn't look at the other 2 confirmation indicators and was promptly stopped out.
Trades 2 and 3 were short trades entered after I received a red arrow with the Oscillator going down and the price had broken through the bottom of the regression channel.
Trade 2 is a good example of "loss of nerve" and getting out too early (as I mentioned in the previous post).
I re-entered for trade 3 and exited on the yellow long counter trend arrow.
"I believe in business you don't always get the equivalent return for who you really are."
You put into words what I've felt strongly about having worked in a corrupt sweatshop small business. Business (the ones I've worked in or heard about in the media) seems to be reverting back to the robber-baron days of the 19th century and slavery ("American" global multinationals using foreign national slave wagers AND training them at entry level instead of Americans which has been going on the past 15 years, but completely slipped the media and hidden under the rug by Bush , Obama, congress and both parties) of the 18th century back to the dark ages. All bullying at the workplace, deceiving, intimidation, betrayal by former "coworker friends" and backstabbing. Bravo!