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Mojojojo77's Quest

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  #1 (permalink)
 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 65 received

Hello! Thank you for visiting my journal...

I've put this off for too long! While I have been a member for some time I haven't really participited in posting my thoughts, ideas, or questions. I would like to rectify that by starting this thread for my journal. In the final analysis, accountability and critique are essential for my growth in my 'quest' to trade for a living. I've been trying for several years to trade futures successfully, with some minor victories along the way, but overall have not really gotten to the next level. When I first posted in this forum I was feeling like an 'intermediate' trader with some success, but shortly thereafter was beaten down pretty good. I have become very cautious, skeptical even, but remain determined in the belief that I can do this! I am very inspired by many of the traders here for their time, effort, success, generosity, and honesty.

So to start I suppose I should throw out a couple of screen shots of what I've been using most recently to trade the NQ. I switched back over to the NQ due to the recent heavy market volatility and having been destroyed in the YM using thinkorswim for trade entries; comparatively, entries on the TradeStation matrix were fine and I made a marginal profit during the same period (though that's a retirement account). I've been using NT7 for my setup and the following screen shots are what I've come up with while following Big Mike's forum.

Briefly, I am using a 9 MedianRenko for a larger time frame and a 3 MedianRenko for entry. D9, TSI4, ZSharkStochTrendChop2, Felton Cycle, and anaSuperTrend are among some of the indicators. I will go into more detail about the present trade setup in following posts.

Thank you to all the futures.io (formerly BMT) members, this is an incredible forum!

Anthony

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  #3 (permalink)
 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
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\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/
General Setup
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MedianRenko9 Chart:
---------------------------
D9ParticleOscillator_V2(9,0), TSI4JeffFromTMFT(Default), Felton Cycle(Default), anaPivotsDaily, Swing(7), ZSharkTrendStochChop2(Default)
**[Note: I use the D9 for coloring background only and ZSharkTrendStochChop2 for paint bars only]

MedianRenko3 Chart:
---------------------------
D9ParticleOscillator_V2(21,0), TSI4JeffFRomTMFT(Default), Felton Cycle(Default), anaSuperTrend(1,1,2), ZSharkTrendStochChop2(Default), MurreyMath(Default), jtRealStats(Default-only volume & bid/ask are transparent), anaSuperDrive(Default)
**[Note: I use the D9 for coloring background only, anaSuperDrive may be redundant, anaSuperDrive is overlayed on 'same as _input series']

\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/
Long Trigger
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

MedianRenko9 Chart: D9 is blue, TSI signal line is blue, Felton Cycle is rising, ZSharkTrendStochChop2 bars are yellow or blue

MedianRenko3 Chart: D9 is blue, TSI signal line is blue, Felton Cycle is rising, ZsharkTrendStochChop2 bars are yellow or blue,
_____anaSuperDrive is Green, price action higher swing low has been formed

Confirmation after placing trade: ZSharkTrendStochChop2 bars should turn blue within 3 bars

\/\/\/
Exit
/\/\/\
anaSuperTrend stop -2 ticks

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 Big Mike 
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Nice job, I look forward to more

Mike

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
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I did hesitate on three nice trend trades and missed them. But overall the day was positive. Here are my trades:

Trade #1: Simulated 7:34AM PST: You may notice I was inadvertently using a MedianRenko 4 instead of 3. I was goofing around with the chart last night with various settings and forgot to set it back! Good signal generation though! Anyway, this was counter trend trade against the HH and HL pivot points on the MRenko9 chart. I will take this counter trend only if the pivot structure on the MRenko3 (or 4 in this case) has made a lower high (as was a short). I was hoping for a quick push down to the vertical support line, but it seemed that the trade began stalling at the MurreyMath lines at 2203.25. So I bailed at +3 ticks (+1 net). A few minutes later the market broke the vertical support and kept going! That's okay, happens all the time!

Trade #2: Live TOS 8:35AM PST: Trend trade after MRenko9 broker support at the daily floor pivot. Entered short at 2186.25, adjusted my first target of 8 ticks to 5 (I need to stop doing that), and my second target from 16 to 9 (did it again!). So I followed my entry rules correctly, but did not manage it appropriately. Still a positive trade at +14 (+12 net).

Trade #3: Simulated 11:00AM PST: Another counter trend trade against the MRenko9, but MRenko3 makes a nice higher low bounce towards the vertical resistance line. This trade I managed well I think. As a counter trend trade I reduced my first target to 4 ticks and the second just below the vertical resistance line. I got both my targets with a sim profit of +17 ticks (+15 net).

So that puts me at net +$90 sim and +$60 cash. Not exactly the daily goal I'm looking for but it'll do for now. Trying to rebuild some confidence in my trading decisions and trust what I see on the screen. Baby steps.

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 dellcnu 
Dallas, TX
 
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Good going Mojo
Keep the dice rolling wish you good luck

The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim too high and we miss it,
but that it is too low and we reach it.
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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
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Thank you dellcnu, thanks Big Mike!

Today did not go well. First, I got a late start. When I did begin watching the market I just seemed to be out of sync. So, sim trades only. The reality was I was very tired which diminished my focus and led to poor discipline. I somehow managed to begin tweaking indicators and switching up time frames (unbelievable!). Grade F for the day. I did realize I was spiraling out of control so I redoubled my efforts to focus and managed to pick up a decent trade toward the end of the day. Anyway, overall, ended up with a -$55 and -$50 in commissions so -$105 on the day.

Trade #1: A little slippage. I try to get within 1 to 2 ticks from trade signal upon entry. In this case the
slippage was 4 ticks which marginalized the trade a bit. Overall trade was successful but I would grade it a 'D'
allowing slippage of 4 ticks.

Trade #2: Messing with my settings. I changed the D9 to update intra-bar, so while the D9 and TSI were both
flashing short intra-bar I went short which would've been a legitimate entry, however I enter at the close of the
bar on the MRenko3 chart so this trade should never have been taken. Grade 'F' for lack of discipline.

Trade #3: Breaking rules: while this looks like a setup, it isn't. One of the rules is trading in the direction of
the Felton Cycle on the MRenko9 chart. I've debated whether this is a good rule or not. Having this rule
(stochastic alignment amongst high and low time frames) seems to protect me more than not, but at times I do miss
some good moves because of it. I know a can't catch every move anyway. So grade on this trade: 'F'.

Trade #4: Tough trade. A better entry was around 11:29, the only problem is the MRenko9 was not ready on the TSI.
Tried to get in a little early on the MRenko3 Felton Cycle. Had I gotten in on the following bar the loss would be
greater. Question: is a 4 bar retracement enough time & price to generate a trade signal back into the trend?
Grade is 'D' for poor execution however the poor execution saved me from a greater loss. Dilemma!

Trade #5: Good trade. All signals in alignment, could have managed trade better for second target so grade for this trade is a 'B'.

In short, I need to make sure I get enough rest & never switch around settings or indicators during the trading day.

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 65 received

Trade #1: Positive outcome, but completely oblivious at time of entry to potential over head resistance. I'd like to say that Yesterday's close was my target, but my mind did not even process this. I hit my first target unadjusted and manually exited the second at BE after stochastic flipped. Net +$30. Grade level 'D' for lack of awareness of S/R levels, but did manage trade well.

Trade #2: Didn't I go through this yesterday? Going short on the MRenko3 chart while the D9 and Stochastic are positive on the MRenko9. Wishfull thinking trading in the direction of the TSI on MRenko9. Mixed signals = NO TRADE!! -$130 Net. (A postive net for the weeking is slipping away!) Grade 'F' for lack of discipline; not following the trade setup.

Trade #3: Failure to see resistance. Market coming off its LL from 8:15 all the way up back to yesterday's close which was prior support between 7:45 and 8:00. I took a long signal after hesitating on two prior signals during the counter trend leg up. Grade 'F' for another poorly executed and ill-fated trade. -$90 Net.

Trade #4: Watching vertical support line break, but failed to keep in mind the horizontal support line right at my entry level, after failing to heed the potential resistance of Yesterday's close! Let the trade try to work out, which it didn't and another loss. Grade level 'F' for not being aware of the horizontal support at time of trade entry and for staying in the trade at all after I noticed. -$130 after commission.

Trade #5: Re-entered trade #4 setup shortly after. Managed trade perfectly. Hit both targets with no adjustments, save for trailing my stop. +$125 Net. Grade: 'A'.
Weekly simulated gross is +$230, with brokerage fees at almost half at $100, so +$130 net. Only one cash trade at +$60 net.

In the evenings I have been playing with some of the MRenko settings and I believe the time frames of 3 & 9 I am using may be too wide of a spread. Going to compare the 3/9 vs a 4/8 over the weekend.

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 Big Mike 
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Nice job.

If possible, I'd like to see the MAE and MFE columns on your trade blotter. I think those are quite important metrics to monitor.



Have a good weekend,
Mike

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
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Big Mike View Post
Nice job.

If possible, I'd like to see the MAE and MFE columns on your trade blotter. I think those are quite important metrics to monitor.



Have a good weekend,
Mike


I took a new snap shot of the trade blotter and re-uploaded to include the MAE and MFE columns in post #8. For the weekly total the Average MAE was -$53.10 and the Average MFE was $65.95. I'm not sure what kind of ratio the MFE to MAE should be, but I'm assuming very high with as low MAE as possible!

Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you and you have a great weekend too!

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 Big Mike 
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mojojojo77 View Post
I took a new snap shot of the trade blotter and re-uploaded to include the MAE and MFE columns in post #8. For the weekly total the Average MAE was -$53.10 and the Average MFE was $65.95. I'm not sure what kind of ratio the MFE to MAE should be, but I'm assuming very high with as low MAE as possible!

Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you and you have a great weekend too!

Nice job. I look at MAE and MFE on a per trade basis mainly. If for instance, you take a big stop on a trade that had a nice MFE, then there is a lot of room for improvement. You seem to have a nice balance with your results, keep at it.

Mike

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Big Mike View Post
Nice job. I look at MAE and MFE on a per trade basis mainly. If for instance, you take a big stop on a trade that had a nice MFE, then there is a lot of room for improvement. You seem to have a nice balance with your results, keep at it.

Mike

Gotcha. I didn't realize what they meant, until I looked them up after you mentioned them. Very interesting. I thank you very much!

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
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Did some experimenting over the weekend, some market replay and indicator comparitives. I reduced my high time frame down from MRenko9 to Mrenko8, sticking with the MRenko3 short time frame. I replayed one day in July using an 89 tick 3 line break chart for triggers and worked very well. More experimentation needed. I also took a close look at the d9ParticleOsc vs the TSI4. What I noticed was the TSI oscillator plotted very similar to the raw trend line on the d9 (I haven't completely read the d9 post so maybe I missed something). Anyway I really like the signal generation of the d9 and like the smoothing of the TSI4 signal line; so I am now overlaying the signal line on the d9 on the MRenko3 chart.

Trade #1: Market moving fast right here, lots of slippage, basically killed the trade. Hard to grade this. I am going with a 'C'. It would have been better to pass on the trade all together once the price action moved so fast away from the entry; I suppose there was some hesitation but I did pull the trigger; however, hesitation on this one was 4-5 ticks every 2 seconds. Was filled at the absolute low of the cycle down, reversed against me immediately resulting in a total loss of -$130 including commission.

Trade #2: Not happy about trade #1, took a counter trend trade without a real countertrend move on the high time frame chart. Even though there was not a heavy loss on this (-$5 including commission), this trade was on emotion, not mechanics, so a big 'F' on this one. MFE looks pretty bad too!

Trade #3: Went short on a legitimate support break. Grade is a 'C' due to exiting the trade too early with a +$35 net profit. Good setup execution, poor management.

Trade #4: Short again going all in/all out for an 8 tick target. Hit target and filled both contracts (at different values) for a $65 net gain. Grade 'A' for trade execution and management.

Overall -$35 net for the day.

Tomorrow I will only be able to trade for the first hour. Wednesday & Thursday look like I will not be able to trade at all, so I will try to market replay some random date from June or July for an hour or two.

Anyway, good night all and happy trading!

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
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Only able to watch market for first 1/2 hour or so.

Added ADXVMA and Sharkband for trying to identify chop on the MRenko3 chart. Trying to avoid getting chopped up like I did on several trades from Friday and Monday which cost $490 in potentially avoidable net losses.

I noticed my text plots and markers are not showing up in the correct locations on the chart so I added white arrows to identify the entries and exits.

Trade #1: Broke the SharkBand in the cycle up, kind of a late entry in the cycle, tightened the stop up pretty fast as the stochastic began dropping. Stopped out with a -$60 net loss. I'm not sure how to grade myself on this. Adding indicators without extensive testing is probably not a good idea. Anyway, in terms of execution, I waited for price to break the bands; my gut told me it was kind of late in the cycle/wave to enter and I raised the stop quickly once the stochastic flipped. I suppose a 'B' as I have added those sharkbands and I will stick with them for now, the trade was executed correctly, was just a loss.

Trade #2: Sharkband break with all systems go for a well executed trade and $115 net profit. This one made me feel good! I'd like to execute this way all of the time. I even got filled at the trigger price of the trade! Grade
'A'.

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
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MELTDOWN!

Trade #1: got a sharkband break late in the lower pivot high cycle, waited for the stochastic to flatten out and took a secondary entry on the sharkbands. Was stopped out at a full loss. Very ugly trade. Traded the rules but just got stopped out. By the time the SuperTrend was hit, within 5 seconds price hit the 2121 stop level. Grade 'B'? Net -$130.

Trade #2: Just wanted some quick revenge on the market, and that usually works out pretty well. Grade 'F'. Net -$120.

Trade #3: Very quickly after the last trade a legitimate setup long out of SharkBands, up to the daily pivot. Was very frustrated after Trade #2 so I tried to pull it together as the day seemed ot be spiraling downward. Anyway, price hit my first target then quickly shot up to the pivot and immediately back down. I didn't get filled on target 2 so I jumped out thinking the market was going to quickly pull back. Net +$70, Grade 'B'.

Trade #4: Breaking rules again. 'Thinking' price was going to break the bands I jumped in short early. After bouncing on that support level a couple of times I exited at a -$25 net. 'F' for breaking rules.

Trade #5: Decent entry on sharkband break in direction of trend, took some heat on the trade then began moving in my direction, but fear overtook me as I had a flash of the price moving back against me. +$5 net. Not going anywhere at that pace. Grade 'D' only for good entry execution, but very poor management.

Trade #6: Choppy market on the MRenko8 with an upside bias on the TSI4, traded in direction of stochastic. MRenko3 broke sharkbands and managed a small profit of +$35 net. This was not a good trade to take, I was trying to fight back the market by trying to take a quick scalp on anything I could get after what I thought was watching opportunites to make money go by. Grade 'F'.

Trade #7: Long breaking the rules again, mixed signals, -$155 net. Grade 'F'.

Trade #8: Broke sharkband, hesitant on entry after getting killed today, got in anyway managing to pare losses a slightly. Net +$70.

Summary: -$250 net for the day. Will not be able to fulfill my quest to trade for a living this way. Mismanaged trades and emotions and broke too many rules.

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 mojojojo77 
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Traded today using MedianRenko 8 and 4 charts. Was overly cautious I think due to yesterday's poor results. Did place 4 trades total, all winners (1 live trade); total sim net profit +$160 for the day.

Trade #1: Live trade: long at 2099, just before market open for attempted gap fill, 1 contract, stop at 2093.75.
Began moving target up on thinkorswim 'active trader' matrix as soon as order was filled but within 11 seconds hit standard target 1 of 8 ticks. Marekt went on to fill gap within 6 minutes. Though I didn't expect the market to move that fast prior to open, Grade 'C' for not allowing myself more prep time to adjust my planned target of the gap fill prior to placing the order. Net +$35.

Trade #2: Counter trend pivot. Reviewing the chart there was a better trade placement 5 minutes earlier at 2137.50. I feel that this was not an ideal setup for a CT trade With very little pullback in price or time. Just following the cycle of the stochastic. Anyway, I grade myself a 'D' for an inadvisable entry point. Net +$45.

Trade #3: Support bounce: Price did not come all the way down to the trendline but close. I thought it was starting to cycle back up but was a little early. Though the d9PO raw trend line began pointing upward, price tends to have more follow through once the raw trend line crosses zero on the MRenko8. Although a good trade, I will grade a 'D' as exercising a bit more patience (sitting on hands) could have produced a better result, and still downward bias on MRenko8. Net +$40.

Trade #4: Vertical/channel trendline break short. I liked mostly everything about this trade. Price broke vertical
support, I got a very good fill & hit my first target in very short order. I wanted to stay with the trade, but
price stalled and began acting squirrely on the MRenko4; I was concerned as price was moving toward an equivalent low of 2152 (but still that's 4 points away!). I jumped out with a net +$75. Grade 'B'.

SIM: Total gross profit for the week was $130 with $170 in commissions totaling a -$40 net.

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 mojojojo77 
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Well, the webinar on Saturday was excellent, so I borrowed one of the templates posted after, made some adjustments and decided to test it in sim live on Monday; and got obliterated! I zoomed in quite a bit for trade entry and was not watching the higher time frame chart. I'm used to utilizing the higher time frame for HH/LL etc. pivot structure. Reviewing some of the trades made on Monday, I see I entered very late after the signal was generated (see chart #3: Perry's Template). Also, I placed way too many trades; I notice I tend to do that when the day is not going well for me, trying desperately to catch up; instead of accepting a loss for the day and walking away, I keep trading and suffer more losses.

When comparing Perry's template posted in the elite section his is much cleaner and easier to identify signals; however, I don't think I'm quite up to the task at pursuing his method for now (perhaps some market replay in the near future).

So, my thoughts at the close are this: I did a trial on TradeStation some time ago with the KwikPop indicators (actually paid for 1 quarter with trading room) and what I liked about them was the clear identification of the swing/pivot highs and lows. The swings occur when their A900 indicator (not sure what A900 is) crosses their Autostop indicator (which is pretty close to a 15 period triangular moving average on Tradestation); these pivot swings generate far in advance to the ZigZagUTC or Swing indicators on Ninja. So I've opted to download a trial of KP on Ninja and use the 8 and 4 period MedianRenko charts on NQ instead of their volume charts on ES for a review. For the most part, what I've tried to do since the KwikPop for TradeStation trial is duplicate their method without paying $200+ per month for a continuing subscription.

I did notice Sharky had mentioned in one post (not sure where now) that he had duplicated many of their indicators some time ago (perhaps in 2009/2010) and posted them in the 'All You Need' thread. I took a cursory look through and I believe I've spotted two similar which are the Zeller/Sharkfin paintbars which generates signals similar to KPScoreCardColor, and the SharkBand2_v2, which is similar to the KPPivot indicators (though I haven't looked at it enough as a comparative in live trading for the timeliness of signal generation). The other I found which was similar to KPMedium was the raw trend of the d9ParticleOscillator posted by sefstrat. I'm not much of a programmer, have done some things with EasyLanguage, but C# is way out of my league! Any input or thoughts on where I can find other similar indicators would be appreciated.

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 mojojojo77 
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Trade #1: Double Top from MRenko8 chart. Typically I like to see a Lower Pivot High for a short on the trade entry chart but if the Swing/Pivot structure on the higher time frame chart is in line a trade is acceptable. Nice trade overall, good entry, management, need to keep it up! Grade A.

Trade #2: Jumped the gun on this one. Needed to wait until a Higher Pivot Low was formed on the MRenko4 chart as I did not enter the trade at the first signal generated in this swing at 7:08 Pacific. A Better signal was generated around 7:26PT. Grade 'F' though this was not a horrible entry, however, was not as mechanical as I would prefer and not off of a swing/pivot based on the KPPivots (A900 crossing AutoStop).

Trade #3: A very nice setup Higher Pivot Low at 8:25PT, everything lined up very nice, momentum still positive on the MRenko8 chart. Grade A.

Trade #4: Oops, fake out to the upside around 12:08PT. It's hard to spot on the chart now, but at the time of the trade I believe I had a negative arrow for momentum on the MRenko8 chart, though there seemed to still be upside bias. The market had been choppy for about 45 minutes and I did wait for a push up beyond the days highs (I don't recall having any success ever going long at the market highs). There was a pivot long generated but the market was choppy and a pivot bounce after the breakout is preferred, so I guess grade C.

Was positive until the last trade, gross at $0 and 8 contracts traded for -$40 on the day.

I've included some charts from my BaseSystem for comparatives to the KwikPop setup.

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 mojojojo77 
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I was taking a look at the KPScoreCardColors vs Zeller_Sharkfin_Paintbars and ZSharkTrendStochChop. Screenshot 1 shows KP vs ZSharkTrend, Chart 2 KP vs ZellerSharkfin with the default 5 period, Chart 3 KP vs ZellerSharkfin 13 period, Chart 4 KP vs ZellerSharkfin 21 period. I think I like the ZSharkTrendStochChop best (an indicator I've already been using), as it appears to be more conservative in transitioning colors, though the ZellerSharkfin 21 period looks fairly similar. I haven't fooled with the settings on ZSharkTrend at all to see what kind of different result I could get, but I will get to that.

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 mojojojo77 
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TRADE #1: Market had previously pushed through the 7/26 - 8/9 daily 61.8% retracement to the upside, waited for some negative momentum on the MRenko8 chart and a push through the 2260.25 level for a short. Not a lower pivot high but coincident with an intraday vertical trend line break so I took a short. Got chopped around for close to 3 minutes, then trade began moving in my favor then back up, so I exited with +2 ticks net. Within seconds, it began moving back down. There were a couple of earlier entries breaking the intraday highs but I passed as it seems I always get burned.

Note: keeping an eye on a simple 'All You Need' setup with on a 12 Range with 3 MAs in panel 2,3,4 with ZellerSharkfin bars with a period setting of 9. Very nice setup showing good entries. Very minimalist chart too.

Note: 8:02AM PT: NQ at +28.25 for the day, starting to move down now, considering a Lower Pivot High trade for a potential move down to fill the gap. Time to SOH and wait. We did gap up nearly 22 points on NQ so I'm not too sure about a gap fill, which is close to the daily Floor Pivot Point. Maybe 1/2?

TRADE #2: Took a live short off a lower pivot high and support break at 2252.75. Got out near the R1 pivot support. Too chicken to ride it down any further! Net +9 ticks.

TRADE #3: Lower Pivot High and support break at 2245.25. Sim trade filled at 2244.75, started bouncing around
intrabar after taking some heat, exited with 10 ticks net, getting close to Value Area High at 2241. Good trade,
need to work on staying in longer! Each swing seems to be moving from 11 to 14 NQ points.

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 mojojojo77 
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Was a little busy after last Thursday's trading, went away early for the holiday weekend, so I'm playing a little catch up.

Trade #1: Late swing cycle entry, was off a Higher Pivot High on the MRenko4 chart but a Lower Pivot High on the MRenko8 chart. MFE was $70 so I left some dough on the table on this one. I did wait for a break below the support level, however, however I notice this a lot with either SharkBand or KPPivot levels (inasmuch as my setup goes) that these type of entries are late in the swing cycle, so grade 'B' for entering after what I was typically waiting for (break of support/resistance), though I will be updating my rules on this. I am more concerned with a break below the yellow error band support/resistance levels (depending on timeliness in the cycle). Those error bands can be re-created exactly using the base NinjaTrader 'StdError' indicator (will display settings in another post). Grade 'B' (my new opinion says late entry but current rule set says otherwise).

Note: the d9 was not up when I was trading live, just doing a comparison of the d9PO overlayed with JeffsUniversalMovingAverage_v1 plotting an EMA(5) over the d9 'raw trend' VS. the KwikPop Medium indicator. Pretty similar indications, what do you think?

Trade #2: Fluke trade, very late cycle. Typically in the Simulator I use market orders, trading live I use limit orders for entry (I know I should do the same on Ninja sim!), so I was experimenting selling at the ask. Anyway, was a scratch trade (er, less commission -$10!), so the day overall was a scratch including commissions.

Overall weekly performance was not good, -$305 ($205 in losses/$100 in commissions). Just gotta keep on keepin' on!

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 mojojojo77 
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Several long attempts to fill the gap from Friday's close.

Trade #1: Gap fill attempt. Indicators mosthly in alignment on both MRenko4 and 8, MRenko4 not quite past the Error Bands, but went long, took a small profit. Grade 'C' for not waiting for a better opportunity for a gap fill trade (why go for a gap fill when I always exit way before the fill?).

Trade #2: Feeling like the gap fill attempt stalled, went in way early; after red bar printed and above the middle of the error bands. Poor trade choice, Grade 'F', needed to sit on hands!

Trade #3: Almost immediately after looking to go back to gap fill possibility, MFE shows marginal potential, but now psychologically I think I was trying to force it, Grade 'D'.

Trade #4: Final gap fill attempt, so so entry, took some heat on the trade, setup was better than before, marginal profit. Grade 'B'.

Trade #5: Getting crazy with the # of trades now! Going short from a mid swing down off a Higher Pivot High. No business placing this trade! Grade 'F' with $10 net profit.

Trade #6: Finally a half-decent trade entry! From a Lower Pivot High on both MRenko4 and 8, although according to the setup the trade entry was a little early, so Grade 'C'.

Fought back to break even gross, -$30 net.

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 mojojojo77 
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Okay, so in order to match the KwikPop 'EBands' take out 3 SMA indicators with a period of 20. Then use the 'Input Series' under the 'Data' tab and select 'StdError' each with a period of 30. For the first select the plot 'LinReg', for the second SMA select 'Upper', and the third SMA select 'Lower', when finished it should look like screen snapshot #2. That's it. It matches the KwikPop 'EBands' perfectly. The only thing you won't get is back filling color within the bands. I'm sure it would be easy to program for some, I'm just a hack with easylanguage, and not at all familiar
with C#!

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 mojojojo77 
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So I have been very busy over the past week but I've taken some notes here and there and some snapshots of my trades, just haven't posted. I have looked at 'too many to count' chart variations during that time (chart types, indicator combinations, minimalist indicators, etc.) comparing to some of my trades as well. What I noticed by comparison was when I use the shorter Median Renko time frames I mostly overtrade as well as focus less on the price action (pivot highs/lows) getting lost in the speed of the market. I did this a long time ago trading the YM using 89 and 144 tick charts as well. My reasoning in zooming in like this is to produce a tighter stop. The only problem is the targets are shorter (and my intention is not specifically to scalp only 3-4 ticks), and the price action/pivot structure can become very sloppy. So slowing down the market seems to be a better fit for me, only I must either accept a specific stop level on every trade or choose and live with a logical stop 1-2 ticks above/below the pivot highs/lows.

So, I do like the price action flow on the MedianRenko8 chart (slowing the market down), it provides good pivot structure and signal generation. Getting in early in say a horizontal support bounce can provide a good place for a logical stop whereas if I am trying to capture some ticks after an indicator setup develops a stop at 2 ticks above entry bar will be acceptable, thereby on each trade the stop level will actually be similar.

I also like the 3 line break charts, especially the 89 tick 3LB wicked (on the NQ), however this can cause similar problems that I have using the MRenko3 chart. Also, I like to see at least 1/2 the day on the chart without it being too crowded. I haven't tried it yet, but I suppose it is possible to zoom in tight on a 3LB chart for entry only with no indicators using the support and resistance levels on the MRenko8 as a guide. May try that in replay.

In addition, I've used different instruments to gauge their price action flow and I like the DX. I believe I read somewhere that 'Sharky' likes the ZN because it moves slowly. Of course the DX has nowhere near the volume of the ZN and many other contracts but it does move slow for my comfort level and I have set up a chart on the DX with MRenko3 that gives very good (and slow) signal generation for picking up approximately 10 ticks per trade, with approximately 5-6 signals per day. Placed 1 cash trade on it and picked up 5 ticks (first and only time I've traded the dollar so far). I even tried using the d9PO strategy that Beth and The Wizard had put together; historically worked very well on the DX but I applied the automated strategy to see what would happen and got killed! Will post the results.

My trial with KwikPop has expired and I like their system. It seems that some of the indicators that I've utilized on futures.io (formerly BMT) generate similar signals, in fact, several different combinations of charts/indicators can generate similar signals accross the board, I just need effective execution, management, and psychology period! Anyway, during the trial I did some workups on indicator comparatives and may post some of these ideas in the '..Indicator Created for Free..' thread.

[Note: for those who may be interested, there is a KwikPop webinar today at 4:15 Eastern with which you get a free bundled trial demo of KwikPop for attending. I checked with one of the KP moderators and they gave me the okay to post the url address and password: Kwikpop Conference Portal - powered by omNovia -- password: kwikpop3 ].

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 mojojojo77 
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Here are my results for last week. 21 total trades, and net after commission profit of -$60!

Regarding contract rollover, I thought I was fully prepared, as I had changed the contract information in thinkorswim, and most (but I guess not all) of the charts/workspaces I have been using in NinjaTrader. Everything turned out fine, however, it is a definite note to myself to assure that I have my charts configured correctly. Now I know it doesn't seem that big of a deal but I suppose it is possible that volume could have just dried up and I may have gotten stuck in a trade with no takers (for a minute or two). Anway some of the trades I placed were with the September, some with the December contract.

I have a new grading system by number so as to average out and quantify a setup's success/failure, along with journaling the feelings on the trade, was it impulsive, too early, chasing, etc.

Setup Score:

5 Target(s) hit
4 Profitable trade, but exited at different price than target
3 Breakeven trade
2 Losing trade, but exited at different price than stop
1 Stop loss hit

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 mojojojo77 
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Had only one trade on Monday, very nice setup and good result using a 3 Line Break (89 tick) chart. Price had come into S1 support and began to bounce prior to open. I hopped in and the open carried me to a quick 18 tick run with 2 contracts, +$170 net. My target was actually the prior day low minus a couple ticks, which it eventually did make it to. Setup gets 4 points for profitable trade, but exited at different price than target.

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 mojojojo77 
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As I mentioned in my post #23 I had done some fooling around with the DX and the D9PO Strategy that I'm pretty sure Beth(wgreenie) and The Wizard worked on. It generates buy/sell signals as the predict line crosses above/below the zero line. It generated some very good results in a one week period, so I decided to let it run overnight to see what the results were the next morning. They were horrible! (see snapshot #1, the first trade was actually a manual trade). However, I ran another historical for the month to date and the results were great (see snapshot #2). Results were $4,585 before commissions of $1,720 for 344 trades and a net net of $2,865. That is not considering slippage.

You can see some of the trades from the automation on snapshot #3.

So I ran another scenario to include 1 tick slippage per fill. The results were affected dramatically, $2,545 net, after commissions of $1,720, a tidy sum of $825 net net, not bad for only one contract. As Beth (wgreenie) had mentioned a bit of filtering would boost profits significantly I think. Of course, I have no idea how to tell NinjaTrader strategy to not take a short 9 bars from the most recent high. But it looks promising. (snapshot #4)

I have also been adding a 5 period SMA (SMA_Colors_V3_No_Repaint_Bars) to the d9PO raw trend line and backfilling the background using JeffsUniversalMovingAverage_v1. This also seems to generate some very good signals as well (see snapshot #5).

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 mojojojo77 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
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Using the shorter time frame MedianRenko charts leads me to overtrading! A total of 20 trades in two days with a net of -$175 nullifies the nice trade from Monday. I was also distracted as I was participating in the Felton Trading Room throwing up a 6E and 6C chart in addition to the NQ. Also notice trade #11 in the blotter was in the lunch time part of the session. I did take 3 trades outside of the regular session though, trade #1, #19, and #20.

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  #29 (permalink)
 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
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Trade #1: Entered a little early as far as the indicators were concerned, but felt was getting a clean signal from the price movement bounce off yesterday's high area and a close below the brevious MRenko8 bar low. First target was 8 ticks, 2nd target was yesterday's close at 2245 (my trade entry was 2270.50). Ended up exiting at 2261.50 close to a mid pivot level and 'kind of' near a vertical support line. Also at the time of the exit, the bar was fluctuating quite a bit (just like early in the trade!), so I exited. Overall, I feel this was a very good trade, execution and management were very good with the exception of the early exit. There was no close above the bar I exited, nor the next, not until price reached another 5+ points at 2256.25. Also, in my mind I was thinking that a gap fill to 2245 was way more than I could hope for on this trade (even though I've seen it happen many times before!).

I also placed a cash trade in conjunction with this at a far more conservative level; waited for the 5 period SMA to signal short against the D9PO(34) raw trend line. Exited at almost identical level as the sim trade, ended up with 11 ticks.

Setup score total 4 points for exiting at a different target, but still profitable. May have jumped in a bit early but still acceptable for trading guidelines as was pullback off of a resistance line; followed part 1 of management to the letter by hitting my first target. So starting off the day on the plus side.

Trade #2: Entered on a similar setup (early) to the first trade, only this time entered at what appeared to be a top of the channel line rejection. Stayed with the trade for almost 10 minutes taking some heat finally exiting when it seemed to me that we were in the doldrums. Did not feel good about exiting the trade having been in it waiting for it to develop for so long (for me 10 minutes is a long, long time), but was pleased to only take a small loss considering the heat on the trade. Generally, I don't like to take a trades between 8:30-10:45 Pacific but this did seem like a good opportunity.

Setup score will be 2 points for exiting a different price from trade and a losing trade. Again, may have jumped in too early but was still following but disregarding best times of day to trade. Did feel a bit nervous about entering this trade as I had concern 'if' this was a losing trade cutting into the gains thus far.

Good day overall, I watched but didn't participate as the market was grinding higher the rest of the day. Well I'm positive for the week so far. Looking at the trade blotter I'm showing +$300 less commissions puts me at +$180. So, we'll have to wait and see what happens tomorrow!

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 65 received

Only 1 trade today. Did the KwikPop webinar yesterday and got another trial so I went ahead and used the setup using a 444 Volume 3LBWicked chart on the YM. Got in the trade after a Higher Pivot Low formed, hit first target of 10 ticks, then as the price action bounced around a couple of bars later I bailed, so... Grade 4 points for profitable trade, but exited before target. My secondary target was the red line on the chart at 11413, which it eventually made it to and beyond, however, a close below the red squigly line (the TriggerLineVMA indicator) would have been a signal to ext at 11399. So I exited before the potential of an additional 17 ticks on the trade. I really need to focus on trying to stay in that second leg when trading two or more contracts.

At any rate, I actually had a postive week even with all the overtrading on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total contracts 29 so it cost $145 and a cumulative profit of $405 netting $260. Definately a step in the right direction. So next week I will focus on fewer, quality setups with multiple contracts and concentrate on holding as long as I can on secondary targets.

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
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Just one trade again today:

Got a signal off of a lower pivot high with a very short target to the green line on the chart at 11181. First target was hit relatively quickly, price got near the target and started to bounce back so I exited early again. Grade 4 for profitable trade but different exit than target. Starting the week off right, though.

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 65 received

Nice setup at about 7:15AM Pacific, had been goofing around with my chart last night, not realizing the ATM strategy was not set correctly. Placed the trade, was 1 contract, no target, no stop preset, so I bailed early picking up 8 ticks. Then the market continued to skyrocket! Anyway, grade 4 for profitable trade but exit before target. Grade 'F' on prep though!

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
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Was trying to setup thinkorswim papermoney for some short-mid term swing plays, saw an opportunity forming to short the YM after missing the first leg down after the LH formed around noon with the closing of the bond market. There was a second setup about 12:15 but I didn't like the pullback cycle as it seemed to short so I didn't take the trade. Was thinking I was done for the day so I popped open TOS. Anway, price action had bounced off Yesterday's High pulled back and started moving down again. I thought there might be achance to break it so I caught the short at about 12:42 with 3 contracts adjusted the first target to Yesterday's high, about 7 ticks away, got that quickly, then noticed the matrix price didn't match the chart price on TOS, so I bailed. I'm not sure if there was a delay or what, but after checking the trade blotter, it matched the price action I was seeing in Ninja, so.... I ended up with 25 ticks! Overall, I got 33 tickes, less 4 in commission, so 29 net, or $145, and $250 for the week so far. Got to keep it up!

Grade 4 points, profitable but different exit than 2nd target (even though TOS seemed wonky).

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
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I seem to have developed a love/hate relationship with Fed Announcements and today was a 'hate' day so I decided not to trade. Mornings can be extremely slow or as of recently have good price action; after announcement is generally extremely volatile. I've done pretty well at times, but other times gotten clobbered, so overall for me the risk isn't worth it. I watched the morning session for a bit then just backed away (not wanting to feel compelled to trade). Overall, I feel pretty good about my decision because there will be good setups tomorrow or Friday or Monday, etc.

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 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
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Entered trade on a HL signal right at S2, trade started off very well, almost hit first target a couple of times then pulled back with heavy red on the jtrealstats volume reading, along with fast market which spooked me out of trade. Took 10 ticks, net 8, then market took off! I do tend to do this when the price action teases around my first target without getting hit. Grade 4 for the setup, profitable trade but different than target.

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 AttitudeTrader 
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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I went long YM at almost exactly the same time. Nice work with your journal here. Keep it up.

BTW, love Mojojojo. Brings back memories of watching Powerpuff Girls with my daughter!

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #37 (permalink)
 mojojojo77 
BayArea, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjarTrader, thinkorswim, TradeStation
Broker: Tradestation, TOS, PFGBest
Trading: YM, NQ
 
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Posts: 35 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 65 received


AttitudeTrader View Post
I went long YM at almost exactly the same time. Nice work with your journal here. Keep it up.

BTW, love Mojojojo. Brings back memories of watching Powerpuff Girls with my daughter!


Thanks! That's exactly the same for me too, use to watch with my daughter when she was younger! Used to do the voice for her too!

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