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I've put this off for too long! While I have been a member for some time I haven't really participited in posting my thoughts, ideas, or questions. I would like to rectify that by starting this thread for my journal. In the final analysis, accountability and critique are essential for my growth in my 'quest' to trade for a living. I've been trying for several years to trade futures successfully, with some minor victories along the way, but overall have not really gotten to the next level. When I first posted in this forum I was feeling like an 'intermediate' trader with some success, but shortly thereafter was beaten down pretty good. I have become very cautious, skeptical even, but remain determined in the belief that I can do this! I am very inspired by many of the traders here for their time, effort, success, generosity, and honesty.
So to start I suppose I should throw out a couple of screen shots of what I've been using most recently to trade the NQ. I switched back over to the NQ due to the recent heavy market volatility and having been destroyed in the YM using thinkorswim for trade entries; comparatively, entries on the TradeStation matrix were fine and I made a marginal profit during the same period (though that's a retirement account). I've been using NT7 for my setup and the following screen shots are what I've come up with while following Big Mike's forum.
Briefly, I am using a 9 MedianRenko for a larger time frame and a 3 MedianRenko for entry. D9, TSI4, ZSharkStochTrendChop2, Felton Cycle, and anaSuperTrend are among some of the indicators. I will go into more detail about the present trade setup in following posts.
Thank you to all the futures.io (formerly BMT) members, this is an incredible forum!
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General Setup
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MedianRenko9 Chart:
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D9ParticleOscillator_V2(9,0), TSI4JeffFromTMFT(Default), Felton Cycle(Default), anaPivotsDaily, Swing(7), ZSharkTrendStochChop2(Default)
**[Note: I use the D9 for coloring background only and ZSharkTrendStochChop2 for paint bars only]
MedianRenko3 Chart:
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D9ParticleOscillator_V2(21,0), TSI4JeffFRomTMFT(Default), Felton Cycle(Default), anaSuperTrend(1,1,2), ZSharkTrendStochChop2(Default), MurreyMath(Default), jtRealStats(Default-only volume & bid/ask are transparent), anaSuperDrive(Default)
**[Note: I use the D9 for coloring background only, anaSuperDrive may be redundant, anaSuperDrive is overlayed on 'same as _input series']
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Long Trigger
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MedianRenko9 Chart: D9 is blue, TSI signal line is blue, Felton Cycle is rising, ZSharkTrendStochChop2 bars are yellow or blue
MedianRenko3 Chart: D9 is blue, TSI signal line is blue, Felton Cycle is rising, ZsharkTrendStochChop2 bars are yellow or blue,
_____anaSuperDrive is Green, price action higher swing low has been formed
Confirmation after placing trade: ZSharkTrendStochChop2 bars should turn blue within 3 bars
I did hesitate on three nice trend trades and missed them. But overall the day was positive. Here are my trades:
Trade #1: Simulated 7:34AM PST: You may notice I was inadvertently using a MedianRenko 4 instead of 3. I was goofing around with the chart last night with various settings and forgot to set it back! Good signal generation though! Anyway, this was counter trend trade against the HH and HL pivot points on the MRenko9 chart. I will take this counter trend only if the pivot structure on the MRenko3 (or 4 in this case) has made a lower high (as was a short). I was hoping for a quick push down to the vertical support line, but it seemed that the trade began stalling at the MurreyMath lines at 2203.25. So I bailed at +3 ticks (+1 net). A few minutes later the market broke the vertical support and kept going! That's okay, happens all the time!
Trade #2: Live TOS 8:35AM PST: Trend trade after MRenko9 broker support at the daily floor pivot. Entered short at 2186.25, adjusted my first target of 8 ticks to 5 (I need to stop doing that), and my second target from 16 to 9 (did it again!). So I followed my entry rules correctly, but did not manage it appropriately. Still a positive trade at +14 (+12 net).
Trade #3: Simulated 11:00AM PST: Another counter trend trade against the MRenko9, but MRenko3 makes a nice higher low bounce towards the vertical resistance line. This trade I managed well I think. As a counter trend trade I reduced my first target to 4 ticks and the second just below the vertical resistance line. I got both my targets with a sim profit of +17 ticks (+15 net).
So that puts me at net +$90 sim and +$60 cash. Not exactly the daily goal I'm looking for but it'll do for now. Trying to rebuild some confidence in my trading decisions and trust what I see on the screen. Baby steps.
Today did not go well. First, I got a late start. When I did begin watching the market I just seemed to be out of sync. So, sim trades only. The reality was I was very tired which diminished my focus and led to poor discipline. I somehow managed to begin tweaking indicators and switching up time frames (unbelievable!). Grade F for the day. I did realize I was spiraling out of control so I redoubled my efforts to focus and managed to pick up a decent trade toward the end of the day. Anyway, overall, ended up with a -$55 and -$50 in commissions so -$105 on the day.
Trade #1: A little slippage. I try to get within 1 to 2 ticks from trade signal upon entry. In this case the
slippage was 4 ticks which marginalized the trade a bit. Overall trade was successful but I would grade it a 'D'
allowing slippage of 4 ticks.
Trade #2: Messing with my settings. I changed the D9 to update intra-bar, so while the D9 and TSI were both
flashing short intra-bar I went short which would've been a legitimate entry, however I enter at the close of the
bar on the MRenko3 chart so this trade should never have been taken. Grade 'F' for lack of discipline.
Trade #3: Breaking rules: while this looks like a setup, it isn't. One of the rules is trading in the direction of
the Felton Cycle on the MRenko9 chart. I've debated whether this is a good rule or not. Having this rule
(stochastic alignment amongst high and low time frames) seems to protect me more than not, but at times I do miss
some good moves because of it. I know a can't catch every move anyway. So grade on this trade: 'F'.
Trade #4: Tough trade. A better entry was around 11:29, the only problem is the MRenko9 was not ready on the TSI.
Tried to get in a little early on the MRenko3 Felton Cycle. Had I gotten in on the following bar the loss would be
greater. Question: is a 4 bar retracement enough time & price to generate a trade signal back into the trend?
Grade is 'D' for poor execution however the poor execution saved me from a greater loss. Dilemma!
Trade #5: Good trade. All signals in alignment, could have managed trade better for second target so grade for this trade is a 'B'.
In short, I need to make sure I get enough rest & never switch around settings or indicators during the trading day.
Trade #1: Positive outcome, but completely oblivious at time of entry to potential over head resistance. I'd like to say that Yesterday's close was my target, but my mind did not even process this. I hit my first target unadjusted and manually exited the second at BE after stochastic flipped. Net +$30. Grade level 'D' for lack of awareness of S/R levels, but did manage trade well.
Trade #2: Didn't I go through this yesterday? Going short on the MRenko3 chart while the D9 and Stochastic are positive on the MRenko9. Wishfull thinking trading in the direction of the TSI on MRenko9. Mixed signals = NO TRADE!! -$130 Net. (A postive net for the weeking is slipping away!) Grade 'F' for lack of discipline; not following the trade setup.
Trade #3: Failure to see resistance. Market coming off its LL from 8:15 all the way up back to yesterday's close which was prior support between 7:45 and 8:00. I took a long signal after hesitating on two prior signals during the counter trend leg up. Grade 'F' for another poorly executed and ill-fated trade. -$90 Net.
Trade #4: Watching vertical support line break, but failed to keep in mind the horizontal support line right at my entry level, after failing to heed the potential resistance of Yesterday's close! Let the trade try to work out, which it didn't and another loss. Grade level 'F' for not being aware of the horizontal support at time of trade entry and for staying in the trade at all after I noticed. -$130 after commission.
Trade #5: Re-entered trade #4 setup shortly after. Managed trade perfectly. Hit both targets with no adjustments, save for trailing my stop. +$125 Net. Grade: 'A'.
Weekly simulated gross is +$230, with brokerage fees at almost half at $100, so +$130 net. Only one cash trade at +$60 net.
In the evenings I have been playing with some of the MRenko settings and I believe the time frames of 3 & 9 I am using may be too wide of a spread. Going to compare the 3/9 vs a 4/8 over the weekend.
I took a new snap shot of the trade blotter and re-uploaded to include the MAE and MFE columns in post #8. For the weekly total the Average MAE was -$53.10 and the Average MFE was $65.95. I'm not sure what kind of ratio the MFE to MAE should be, but I'm assuming very high with as low MAE as possible!
