Anyway, hope this answers your question.....one last thing, you should know this is sim....I plan on going live with it end of the month....that will be three months of testing and thats enough....I just hope the cycle is not over when I do....but I'll be able to tell right away if it is...the trade will stop working and I'll be able to determine that almost immediately.

Don't you want to download some market replay days for Feb 2013 and test out how it acted last year?

In fact I do not. I trade NQ much differently than CL. Attached is a screen shot of my trades today. I exited around the 3 day ADR and its gone another 75 ticks from there....I made 20 handles and left tons on the table.

However, my NQ method is dead simple. I plot the opening 5 minutes using @Fat Tails handy little indie, wait for a bar to close outside it and take the break of that bar either long or short. Stop goes on the opposite side of the OR. I sometimes go BE at +20 ticks but I'm learning thats generally a bad bet.

The trade was originally built on a 40 tick target but that was before the range expanded. Now it seems almost anything is reasonable...currently its at 140 ticks from my entry.....with NO pull backs....

I have a buddy trading NQ on a tick chart and he's doing well with it but he's scalping 7-8 ticks at a time but I'm taking one or at the most two trades a day. If the OR break doesnt work, I reverse at the stop and let it run...if that fails I am done. Thats happened once I think.....

Anyway, hope this answers your question.....one last thing, you should know this is sim....I plan on going live with it end of the month....that will be three months of testing and thats enough....I just hope the cycle is not over when I do....but I'll be able to tell right away if it is...the trade will stop working and I'll be able to determine that almost immediately.

I thought a higher win% would cut down on slippage - and would imagine commissions be about the same - therefore a higher win rate would be preferable, additionally you could risk more due to the lower std dev of returns.

Assuming of course you exited winners on a limit, and the losses with a market order. Perhaps the exit method changes when you get to the next level and have the proven ability to trade based on what the market is telling you, rather than what your fixed level exit backtesting has told you.

@PandaWarrior I've taken some of what you have been trying out with in my live trading and it seems to work.

Today was an exact mirror to yesterday, fake out and then pretty much a linear trend (for NQ). I made the mistake of trading on YM which was the weaker one. I've noticed that the ES NQ and YM are all generally directionally correlated, but one is stronger than the other two every day. Today it was the NQ and that is where I should have put my trades on. From what I've noticed lately, the stronger instrument moves farther in the direction you want and less so in the opposite direction and I'm going to try picking the strongest of the 3 to trade on each day.

You can tell the which one is strongest by where the bars move in the first +-15 minutes of the RTH open.

Don't you want to download some market replay days for Feb 2013 and test out how it acted last year?

What is a handle? a Tick?

I got in around 3529 today, I just got out too early. But overall very good day.

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I just found out for me that managing my trade @+100% of risk and then @150%+ of initial risk allowed enough trades to run to 2.618 reward to risk in DAYTRADING.

For swingtrading methods I use 2 to 1 reward to risk....
I can't get my swingtrading win% much above 62% ish....
I am a grind with size trader if I label myself.
peace/hedvig