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And I think this applies for all time frames. A market that is trending up in the last 5 years does not mean it will be up this year; "trending" up for the year may not continue to do so next month; "trending" up for the month does not imply this week will continue to be so; "trending" up for the week does not mean to simply buy today; and finally, "trending" up in the morning does not mean it will continue into the afternoon.
I understand that--what I'm saying is that the principle may very well apply to all time frames, and in effect I'm extrapolating the principle, in one interpretation as: "Do not become deluded by the idea of 'the trend' at all."
An investor who buys the S&P at 700 in March '09 because it's very undervalued does not care about a weekly or monthly down trend; he sees the all-time trend as up, and is looking to invest money for perhaps years to come. So a swing trader playing trades lasting a week or two has the very "zoomed in" (aka "delusional") view relative to the higher time frame player who is looking years ahead. In this case, the March 2009 trader playing in the weekly to monthly time frame would be deluded to consider the 2008 activity as a down trend, given the context of the stock market since its inception (as only UP).
The weekly/monthly trader's perspective (circled area is early 2009):
The long-term investor's perspective (same circled green area as prior chart):
Which player is delusional? Or does the use of the past "trend" in any way constitute delusion? Is either right or wrong, or is either delusional? If I'm an intraday trader, does it matter what the weekly trend is? If I'm a swing trader holding trades for weeks, does it matter what the all-time S&P trend is? Just thoughts, nothing more.
no ZN trades today. I was short biased, there was huge volume 2 ticks above where I wanted in and price never made it below that edge....there was a signal to go long, but with the bearish sentiment I had along with the bearish filter tools I use, I was not excited about the longs. I did put a limit order to go long after the signal bar had closed up but it never filled and I'm glad it didn't. While there would have been no heat on the trade at all, it was definitely against the current bearish sentiment I was observing. So it might have worked and currently it still is but its not going anywhere and for now, I am flat and just observing.
If I get the short signal I was looking for, I'll take that....otherwise, no go....
I filled my daily quota in CL or at least what I was hoping for today so done with that instrument for today.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
