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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1751 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
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tigertrader View Post
the professional trading community is smaller than you would think and they talk to each much in the same way that people on this forum share and exchange ideas - that is why you will often see large desks implementing the same strategies, often at the same time in the same direction - but certainly they all look at the same things

Very cool--so, the Yen has been in the news a lot since the JGB fiasco a few weeks back, and since the Nikkei was up something like 80% over such a short time period--yes? Can you be a little more specific regarding the relationship of the Yen currency to US bonds? You have been talking a lot about what drives price. In this case, can you link fundamentally the Yen to US treasuries? As in, why would a weak yen cause you to add short on your bonds trade? Please forgive my numerous questions and what must seem like total ignorance of the subject, but I am trying to connect the dots in my mind.

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  #1752 (permalink)
 
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 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
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josh View Post
Very cool--so, the Yen has been in the news a lot since the JGB fiasco a few weeks back, and since the Nikkei was up something like 80% over such a short time period--yes? Can you be a little more specific regarding the relationship of the Yen currency to US bonds? You have been talking a lot about what drives price. In this case, can you link fundamentally the Yen to US treasuries? As in, why would a weak yen cause you to add short on your bonds trade? Please forgive my numerous questions and what must seem like total ignorance of the subject, but I am trying to connect the dots in my mind.

yen and treasuries are correlated because they are both safe haven/ flight to quality/risk-on-risk-off vehicles

and are both sensitive to the central bank policies of their respective countries

additionally...

consider the yen carry trade and the unwinding of the carry trade

putting on the trade: selling yen and buying US equities

taking off the trade: buying yen selling secuirities

if bonds are negatively correlated to equities then they will be positively correlated to the yen

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  #1753 (permalink)
 
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 Silvester17 
Columbus, OH
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tigertrader View Post
yen and treasuries are correlated because they are both safe haven/ flight to quality/risk-on-risk-off vehicles

and are both sensitive to the central bank policies of their respective countries

additionally...

consider the yen carry trade and the unwinding of the carry trade

putting on the trade: selling yen and buying US equities

taking off the trade: buying yen selling secuirities

if bonds are negatively correlated to equities then they will be positively correlated to the yen

if you don't mind me adding 2 more things:

- japan is very famous for using the above mentioned vehicles "safe haven/ flight to quality/risk-on-risk-off"

- not to forget, japan is the 2nd largest us treasury holder

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  #1754 (permalink)
 
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 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
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impact on asset markets

the broader liquidity story

US, Japan, China

leading market volatility

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  #1755 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
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This trade might end up BE as I am moving my stop to BE once I make this post.

Anyway, this has been a work in patience today.....but so far its worked out according to plan....but we are right at the support levels for the break up so if its gonna work, it needs to get through these levels....I think it will but how long and will it pull back prior to breaking down? Who knows but I am now BE on this trade with lots of down side potential......

I thought it would be good to post mid trade for review later and see how it plays out with the benefit of a static pic of what I was thinking and how I managed the trade......

I'm goofing off with @Fat Tails thrust bar indie for fun today.....I like the colors....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1756 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
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stop moved to lock in some profit....if it reverses from here, I dont want it anymore

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1757 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
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A lot of work for little payoff....it happens sometimes....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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  #1758 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
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My thanks to visitor ratio is about 5%. I find that odd......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
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  #1759 (permalink)
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
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@Panda: you do realize there was a 5 year auction today?

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  #1760 (permalink)
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
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tigertrader View Post
@Panda: you do realize there was a 5 year auction today?

Uh.... No. My news feed said no news after the CL number. I sat that out and made some money but didn't see anything related to notes.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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