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Not sure what you mean. I don't know what an initial balance line is. You'll need to be more specific, I'm a bit dense sometimes....
BUT to answer your question as to what I based the 70% pull back on its this....After price breaks a support level/trendline or hopefully both, I measure the leg that broke the level/trendline and am looking to enter in the 70-100% pull back zone. The 70% thing came from some guru trader, I think Linda Rasche but I'm not sure. I was trying to use 78% pull back but the fills were less than 50/50 so I went 70% and that seems to get me filled. Still looking at adverse selection using this and so far so good....haven't had a bad one yet....
Also, still using the break of the levels as well for entry areas if I forget to do the pull back thing or if it doesn't make it that far....
Hope that helps.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I finished trading this morning and jumped straight to another project....now its time to make my posts.
Price action drove me nuts today. I was super impatient wanting price to go to targets quickly and get me out of the market and on to other things....this impatience shows up occasionally and normally I really bomb those days. This one turned out ok.
I made a major mistake on the long trade. It was a legit long but the pull back violated the trend line. At that point, I needed to be looking for shorts up in the pull back area. Instead, I let the long go positive again hoping it would break the double top and move toward my target. Instead, it came back down and at this point I manually closed the trade. After a bit, I realized I needed to be short and I was fortunate to be able to get in at the point where I should have been looking after the trendline break. This worked out but often times it doesn't. I was long and missed the opportunity to be at least BE on the trade and even make a few ticks to boot while setting up for the short.
My trading buddy really drilled me on this point this morning (in a nice way) and to be fair, I was totally blind to the short setting up due to my long position. Sitting there, I was thinking, how do I manage this trade now that the trend line is broken? And in truth, I had a brain freeze, the answer refused to come....but next time I see this, I'll know, try to make a graceful exit if possible and if not, bail.
Couple of losers then a nice winner to make up for them...finished with more than my average....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
'i dont really like shorting above an upward sloping trend line', maybe if the pullback swing into the 70% area is of weaker volume? that might add to the win%
dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see
I've experimented with volume, but owing to my previously mentioned denseness, I was not able to find any way to make it work for me. So back to the support and resistance thing I go....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
two trades, one just like yesterday....shorted at support turned resistance, price broke above the trend line, held it until it went back in my favor, went BE, held it long enough to see if it would keep going short, it didn't, I exited and re-entered as it was a long signal.
This was a few minutes prior to news, once it got 10-15 ticks in my favor, I went BE just in case the news was unfavorable to my position, the book emptied out completely, then slammed up to fill my target. And that was it for the day.
I marked a few others as they happened, but once I got my target, I mentally checked out...chatted a bit on skype with a couple of other traders from around the world, took my kid to school and now its time to move on to the rest of the day.
Cheers.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Drove about 6 hours yesterday, overslept, forgot about daylight savings time, missed the opening...etc.....
my trades...
First short, I was having a hard time figuring out where to draw the trend line, so I just skipped it and went with the double top instead. Reversed it when price broke above the level, reversed again when it broke that level, held that one for enough to make my loser back plus some profit.
Spent the rest of the morning yawning, talking on skype and playing with trend lines and exploring the idea of dumping them altogether. (second chart)
Then I took a short at resistance that I wondered about and got stopped on...third chart....
Ended the day net break even.....not bad for being dead tired.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see 
