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@tigertrader, can you provide some details on the average time duration of trades to give some context? Or just tell us an idea of how much you are targeting in points on each trade?
As I mentioned earlier, It all depends on a variety of inputs; current volatility, type of day, time of day, previous day, news, price levels, et al. I probably shouldn't be giving any advice, the way I've been trading lately (especially in the ES), but on the other hand, my recent lack of success is a perfect example that conditions have to be favorable to support this strategy, especially when you are an aggressive trader.
Currently, the market is locked between near-term highs, and downside sell levels. Long term and intermediate term cycles are still bullish, but are historically overbought. The minor cycle has begun to unravel recently due to these overbought conditions. Market internals are subsequently mixed and traders at the margin appear to be waiting for the next catalyst before jumping back into the market.
This is both good and bad. Its a bad environment for trading aggressively, but it is good because, we are hopefully at an inflection point that will set the stage for larger market swings, and perhaps, a trending market. Until then, trading aggressively, is certainly not a strategy "you want to try at home".
If conditions warrant it...I usually risk 1.5X the ATR15m, and look to capture 70% of the ADR 20D intra-day, with the intention of taking the position into the ETH, if feasible
I'm tired from my long weekend trip, so just did one today and now back to bed I think. It went to my BE target, came back and missed my BE by one tick twice. Then went on to fill my target.
Last week I extended my R:R multiple out a bit. I've been working with 1.5xR and decided after seeing a 2xR multiple working well to stretch it out a bit. I still go BE after 1XR at this point. Its what I've tested over time and so going with it for now.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I'm still learning and suspect I will always be learning the nuances of MTF.
I have a short bias from the daily chart at this point and the highest time frame I watch was long. However, I decided to go with my bias and when that trade was stopped out, had trouble reconciling current price action with the bias and also reconciling the charts together.
The point is that this point, I was guessing but not an educated guess. Lack of patience to wait for the charts to present an alignment I could recognize easily was also an issue.
I know for 100% certainty, that if I wait for the periods of confusion to elapse, I will get a good trade. Most of the time, I am reasonable good at waiting for this to happen. I was impatient today and the PnL shows it.
Funny thing is that eventually the charts did get in sync which produced a pretty good trade.
The actual MTF trade would have produced enough profit to offset all losses plus have a tidy profit but I was already at my daily stop limit.......had I waited, the trade was enough to provide 6X my daily average. Major opportunity lost.
Its better to wait than to be confused.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
