Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I've heard 30 minutes used as an opening range before. And of course opening range and initial balance are the same thing, just a matter of whether you are a profile trader or not, and then of course the length of time.
Not a fabulous day for my method. It does better on structured trend days instead of days with V turns and 100+ tick moves with no pull backs.But thats ok. I filled in the blanks with a couple of other trades I see regularly. These seem to only really work on days like today so it worked out.
The best method trade was before I got to the charts and it hit is 4X risk target around 60 minutes after the signal and before I sat down. Gotta be able to wait for those.
The non system trades I took conservative profits on and I passed on a system trade as I didn't like the price action inside the wedge. Its discretionary for a reason.
Anyway, traded small for the most part and took the last trade off a bit early as the end of the session was close and I didn't want to hold to much longer so I locked in some ticks and if it ran from there, great, if not, no worries.
I almost missed the last trade. I had decided I was done for the day, was watching ESPN for a few minutes and my kid came in, talked to her and then looked back at the chart as i was gonna do my post and saw something interesting set up but with a large risk. I took it with small size and got my stop to BE before first target hit....I was willing to let it run but not come back on me at this point in the day. Got the first target then moved stop to +40 once +50 had printed. I got 40
Anyway, a tough day that worked out ok.
Here's the indicator list for those of you that asked. However I make this statement about the indicators. This method is not about the indicators. Nor is it about the settings.Its about something that seems to make sense for me and its about risk management and profit targets.
I'm really reluctant to provide settings and indicators for the reason that its not a holy grail or anything close to it. Its just a method that follows trends that work out in a certain manner. The key is to take the trades with proper risk management and be patient with the winners. Something I am still working on.
Here's the thing. I am very profitable with this method since May 21. The first 2-4 days I struggled with the entries. I had trouble believing the thing would work. Then I sized to large. Then I got the sizing thing correct. Then I had trouble not inventing trades when the thing said not to trade. Then I started just doing what it said but struggling with the exits. The long and short of it is this; I am profitable despite sub optimal trading. Go figure. A positive reinforcement of a negative behavior. This time through though, I am treating the positive results as improvement points which can only be improved with positive behavior.
Then @tigertrader said to be really damn patient with the winners. Now working on that as my main priority. Looking back over the last few weeks, being patient with winners would have been really nice.
So for those that want to use the indie or whatever, I beg of you NOT to accept what I say or do as some sort of trading method that might work for you. You must believe in yourself, not me. I PROMISE you I will lead you down the wrong path. My path is very different than yours. I believe in myself. I sure as heck don't believe in anyone else, otherwise I would have bought a system and just traded someone else's view of the market. It doesn't work that way. Others can help and for sure many have helped me but I wish to God that early on I would have had a mentor that taught patience vs finding entries. One that taught targets might take all day to get filled. Of that they might never get filled and what to do about that.
The reason this seems to hold promise for me is it reinforces something I already believe about the market, its super visual which is something I need and the only things that really makes it work are position sizing and being patient with winners....something that's true of any system.
If you decide to use the indies, please take the time to figure out exactly how YOU will enter and exit the market. Figure out exactly how you will size your trades and exactly how you will manage trades. Do not take my word for anything.
Cheers.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I have a relationship that has been strained over the last couple of years. Its mostly my fault although he is somewhat complicit. Nevertheless, I have been wondering how to fix it now for some time. To be 100% transparent I had no idea how to fix this thing.....so I did the only thing I knew to do. I prayed about it. Sure enough, without any real effort on my part, the ice has started to thaw. Its at a point now where I think we can discuss things rationally without doing further damage.
I'll be spending some time with him in the next couple of weeks to talk things out. Its not done yet but I am grateful the process has begun.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Another thing I wonder about. If its one hour or 1/2 an hour, do people that use the IB as an integral part of their trading not trade the IB period? That first hour often seems to be the best trading hour of the day.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
Thanks Received: 3,863
For CL, I've used 30 minutes in the past but have found that 60 minutes for an IB seems to be more engaging which is contrary to many CL traders... If you're using a 30 minute IB and price repeatedly does not react to those levels unless it's in confluence with the 60 minute levels... Time to rethink that. Of course engagement (of price) is in the eye of the beholder.
My thought is traditional MP theory's IB is the first two 30 minute bars. I've done extensive analysis on the difference between the two with regards to how each reacts to price. I just think for a volatile market like CL, to have an IB in such a short period of time (30 minutes) doesn't make sense...
I would firmly agree with this. With CL opening at 6am PST, using a 30 minute range would be easily skewed by volume from the rest of the market opening up at 6:30.
Not to dilute this further but the Mark Fisher ACD system is what you might be thinking of. This can use various opening ranges such as 10 minute, etc. 1st 10 days of a quarter, etc (I think)
+++++++++++++++++
... While working on a system to trade as a graduate student at the Wharton School of Business in the early 1980s, Fisher observed the importance that the opening range held in setting the tone for the trading day. In the case of crude oil (where the opening range at the time was 10 minutes), the opening range was the high or the low of the day between 17 to 23% of the time. If markets were truly random, and since there are 32 ten-minute periods in the trading day, one would expect the opening range to be the high or the low 1/16 (or 6.25%) of the time (1/32 for high and 1/32 for low). Put another way, the likelihood that the opening range will be either high or low for the day is more than three times what one would expect if market movements were truly random, as has been postulated by the random walk theory. Fisher is not the only person to have discovered this fact. A number of trading systems in use today rely on an opening range for providing clues to directional bias.
There is no doubt, there is a difference between great and average traders, (great traders make a lot more money) but I think the real difference will surprise you.
I've been trading for about 40 years and have been lucky enough to have been exposed to a lot of great traders. Leo Melamed first showed me how to keep and interpret a chart, and Tom Dittmer showed how me how to trade in the pit. I stood next to Tom Baldwin for 10 of my +20 years in the Bond pit, and I talked with Pete Steidlmayer often , when I went into the grain room to trade Beans. Both Dennis Gartman, and Michael O'Brien (one of the turtles) were friends of mine, along with many other great traders, including Charlie D.
I had always thought my success was a result of my ability to look at a chart and determine the market's future direction. Along with a functional understanding of the markets and what drives price, I could integrate the two disciplines into a consistent enough strategy to achieve profitability. For years, I believed this was my most important personal edge. But as I look back, I realize that while these skills contributed greatly to my success, they were not the most important, and it is why I continue to emphasize the following message.
the markets are nearly random, and nearly efficient
the difference between futures prices and certain random walks is often too small to detect
yet incredibly, with an effective methodology, a trader can still be profitable
but not for the reasons most people believe
predictions and opinions are often going to be unfounded and incorrect
forward looking chart interpretations are going to be biased and wrong
information will always be asymmetrical,
and destabilizing emotions will interfere and impede with decision making
which means the analytical process, is far from efficient
yet, a trader can develop a critical edge
and, it has nothing to do with being wrong or right the market,
nor the frequency with which he is wrong or right,
