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Those were not "losers" they were BE minus commissions. Look at the previous day for a more realistic picture of winners vs losers....
If you are 1:1, you better know where your exit is and it better be at least the size of your risk....and then you need to be better than 50%. I am currently better than 50%, risk is about 1:1 and sometimes 2:1 depending on the risk and target areas......the difference is size.....as the girls always say, size matters....you need to eat like and elephant and crap like a bird. Most people eat like a bird and crap like an elephant.
If you are a one lot trader, this is much harder...but still doable, just make sure you never take a trade you think your reward is less than your risk....and dont chicken out on the winners.....if your target is legit, then wait until its hit or price action tells you the trade is over....if you can do this, you'll be fine.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Yeah, I really should have realized that. I had a moment due to a long day of moving heavy things in the heat!
Ok, that all sounds exactly like I trade (when I don't break any rules that is). Lately I've been hanging around 60% wins, and ranging from 1:1 to 2:1.
I can really relate to a post you had earlier where you talked about how when you know a trade is going to hit your stop, and you (and me) just watch it go there. Something I've been trying to improve as well.
2 loser trades today. Both of which I knew were gonna lose. 1st one not in plan...so I just closed it out. However the reason I took the trade was greed. Trying to anticipate the signal.....stupid....
2nd loser was a real valid trade signal. However, I had a gut feeling from the second the entry filled. I expected it based on the location and the level to travel pretty quickly to at least some type of profit but instead it immediately went into drawdown. Thats ok sometimes but this time through, from the way it acted, I should have just closed it immediately. Instead I waited for a bit of price action confirmation it would fail, I got that confirmation and closed before my stop was hit. A few mins later, I could have gotten out at BE but thats the way the chips fell on that trade.
I also passed on a great trade late in the day. I was on the phone, watching price action, up nicely on the day after a hard day of trading and decided to pass on the trade....that pass cost me $500. But again, I made a decision on the fly based on my feelings about the day and so I accept full responsibilty for it. No one forced me not to trade.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
After some period of trading, we all 'know' how to make good trades and manage them properly. But we get psychological interference that sabotages us. Unfortunately, trading is more about avoiding mistakes than anything else.
You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
Yesterday being the beginning of an early holiday weekend, it was expected to be slow. However, I decided to continue trading and perhaps look at trying a couple of things out besides my normal trading signals...basically counter trend trades or looking for a bit more in terms of my normal exit parameters.
As you can see, those did not work so well...mostly the extra ticks on the exits....looking at the MFE, you can see there was plenty of profit available yesterday.....deviating from exit parameters caused a losing day as opposed to a nicely profitable day.
This week has been an excellent exercise in what works and doesn't work for me. I tried a few different things within the context of a trend following method, found they do not work and also experimented with being somewhat greedy on purpose. Also a bad thing.
Next week is now a singular focus on trading only the signals generated and only exits as prescribed by my method.
After two years of searching and trying to marry the three things you need to have a successful trading method, I think I've finally found something I can work with longer term....What I am doing now is simple to see, simple to execute, simple entry and exit rules and simple money management based on risk. Simple is good. I know what doesnt work and what does...so next week is all about maximizing what I have learned this week as I finally put two and two together.....
Last week was the first week ever in which I didn't feel like I was guessing about what I needed to do. I didn't have to wonder if it was a trade or not, didn't have to wonder about exits or how many lots to trade. My confidence level rose significantly and at the same time, a healthy dose of humility began to infuse my trading. I finally recognized how truly out of control I am of every thing that happens once I take a trade and to be ok with that.
I also recognized and worked both with and against that intuition traders talk about. I felt certain trades would be good trades and stuck with them, I also felt the opposite and deliberately decided to let the trades play out even though I intuitively understood they needed to be closed immediately. I did this for the express purpose of seeing how these worked given my new, somewhat elevated sense of my own self awareness. This bit sounds like so much psychobabble, but for once, I am not discounting it.
I am looking forward to another week on sim. I set a goal of $1600 a day for the two weeks I am doing this experiment. Last week fell far short of that. However, I knew the first week would be tough as I worked on executing everything real time and worked out the kinks and understand certain nuances. Next week, $1600 a day is definitely my goal.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Indeed a great read, I am so guilty this year of violating the very first and most sacrosanct rule, of focus, and it shows in my yearly PNL. Focus, single mindedness with simplicity is the only thing, You, PW, do well to emphasis them in your journal.
Although not sure why you want to do the sim thingy, seems like a distraction.
I am currently reading Gigerenzer's Gut Feelings and I can see why when I complicate things, I set myself up for failure in a number of ways - doing too much, getting scatterbrained and most of all - just plain trying to outsmart the market (which is always doomed to fail).
I thoroughly recommend this book, to all traders that trade purity - price bars, DOM, Tape etc....
