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Currently I am using a dynamic targeting method...based on fibs...historically it has proven to be really accurate and dependable....however, I have noticed that targets derived from very large swings can be problematic.....perhaps a more conservative target on those would be good....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The constant battle, my friend... You know I struggle with this also.
I just move my stop along and place it below the larger PB swings and then tighten up when I see
a battle coming. What else can we do?
Neither of us can stand the fixed targets, so we have to take what the market willing gives.
The pain of only making $50 and being stopped out in the battle and then having price runaway
is easier for me than just taking, say,15 ticks and having price run right through for 75 ticks in a perfect
slow trend.
I have to be in the big fight
Just don't let it come all the way back, right?
I think it's easy to get lost in the quest to capture the whole move. I mean how much do you need to earn
a day to make a decent living ... $300-$600??? That's not a whole lot of ticks ...
We both need to keep our eye on the prize - winning most every day ... meager or large.... don't give all the
money back that the trading fairies give you. It is a gift, don't waste it.
Just a thought looking at some of your trades. You have pretty bare charts which is nice. You might try to watch the midpoint of the previous bars body for the bar by bar battle. If you get a close past this point on the previous bar many times the trend is in trouble but if not then you can stay in. This doesn't mean you won't take some heat.
But maybe this would help. Sometimes the simple things work the best.
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss
Attached chart (CL 25_04_2012) I'm using a similar concept but with the POC per bar;
(black lines on each bar)..using the GomMP (or TimeTrader's 4t4) set to Per Bar).
Do you see the why I mentioned the daily pin bar yesterday in the video, the follow-on today with impulse A and B, and the simple DT and the cup and handle and the consolidation that is typical with primary moves. Like you said, simplicity rules!
Well what an interesting day...a very narrow range but I had fun today...I got beat up, but thats my fault.....I got a bit confused during the early consolidation and went short against a long trend....i dont usually do that kind of thing.
I buy the low of the day...for 13 ticks....aargh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am learning to put my stops in better places and to take trades closer to where my stops actually should be...but that being said, even with that in mind, i got shaken out a couple of times today.
I'm tired now so no more narrative....but I will say, I over thought things today and I lost perspective when price was consolidating....stepping back to see the trees is a good idea @Deucalion.
At the end, I missed the entire message price was telling me and I traded with bad information and also with some amount of fear of missing out.....but this is becoming less of an issue each day.....
Gotta pay attention to the swings.....
Lastly, does anyone have any ideas about how to avoid getting your stops hit that are behind swings by bars that have large wicks but that don't close beyond the levels I've identified as S/R?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I've spent my entire trading career trying to tighten up the stop....as have most of us I think...The only way to tighten up stops is to go to a much smaller time frame and that is problematic as it can cut you up or you can take much deeper pull backs.
Here's what I mean....Assume you are entering a long trend on a pull back....however you define that, and you get in and for me, I have traded with the assumption that the bottom of that pull back is the NEW swing or higher low.....and I have put my stop a few ticks below that level. This works enough that it reinforces the idea that its the correct thing to do.....however, that is NOT the new higher low UNTIL a new higher high is put in and then its only broken to the down side IF a bar CLOSES below it....this makes break out trades that much clearer....the swing is established.....and you know where the stop goes....
In fact, the correct swing is in fact the most recent one actually established....NOT the one I thought was just created....its still not real yet.....it must be validated by a new higher high......
So this creates a problem....the risk just got bigger for trend continuation trades but in truth a whole lot safer....why? Because now the stop is in the correct location and the trade can breath as it were and those long wicks that penetrate the level I THOUGHT was the new swing wont get me.....
Now this is particularly true if holding for larger moves.....for scalping or perhaps a better word is swing scalping, taking ticks out of each swing and waiting for a new one, this may not be as important but for sure it applies on the larger trade attempts.....
It also demands two more things....1. Proper sizing for the risk....dont screw this up. 2. It also demands I look for trades in locations I would otherwise have placed a stop....in other words, as close to the deepest pull back as possible......and do so without confirmation.....this just got a lot more uncomfortable....I like confirmation and I'm not even Catholic!
This also opened up two possibilities about taking profit....scalping now becomes a legit endeavor....I know why and where to take profit....the swings themselves are good exits locations at or near the highs of the swings....and it also says that if I feel like the trade is worth holding, I know where to put the stops and to walk away....
Chart attached for a visual.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
It all depends on what you're going for. You can use a tighter stop if you're going for a scalp... or a larger stop if you're going for a swing. In either case, you must make sure that math is on your side.
Alternatively, you could look into trading double tops/bottoms. That way you can put in a tight stop without waiting for a HH (or a LL). But that has its own can of worms.
Maybe the most important thing is clearly defining your ONE trading philosophy / plan, and then executing accordingly.
You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
