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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #891 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Favorite Futures: Energy
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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tigertrader View Post
yet, a trader can develop a critical edge

and, it its has nothing to do with being wrong or right the market,

nor the frequency with which he is wrong or right,

but, by how much you are right and wrong

“cut your losses, let your profits ride”

its the ultimate trading cliche

but, its the universal truth in trading

money management and trade management

will ultimately be the reason most responsible, for the longevity of any trader’s career

I've not been trading to much the last couple of days. Yes I have been entering trades but since its a sim period, I've been focusing on holding trades far past my comfort zone.

Why you ask? Its simple really....@tigertrader 's admonition here and in other threads about reducing slippage, transaction costs and pressing winners has finally started to sink in.

Over the last couple of days, I've spent some time looking at what big targets do for your PnL vs just finding and trading smaller swings. Here's the result. Using a 4X risk model, there are FAR fewer trades, and MUCH larger profits as well as very small transaction costs expressed as a percentage of profit.

Here's the down side, large profit targets sometimes take all day to reach. With maybe only one trade all day. This means my job went from finding several good entries and exits to finding one entry and perhaps 2-3 exits depending on how I want to scale out. It also means even more waiting than what I am used to both for set ups and exits. I may need to find a hobby I can do while sitting on my butt all day.

And it may be more beneficial to use a higher time frame chart to trade off of. Less noise, fewer trades and bigger targets....who knows....for now though, just seeing how the fewer times you trade and holding for larger targets appears to be the path to long term success.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #892 (permalink)
Elite Member
Toronto, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Favorite Futures: CL,ES
 
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tigertrader View Post
There is no doubt, there is a difference between great and average traders, (great traders make a lot more money) but I think the real difference will surprise you.

I've been trading for about 40 years and have been lucky enough to have been exposed to a lot of great traders. Leo Melamed first showed me how to keep and interpret a chart, and Tom Dittmer showed how me how to trade in the pit. I stood next to Tom Baldwin for 10 of my +20 years in the Bond pit, and I talked with Pete Steidlmayer often , when I went into the grain room to trade Beans. Both Dennis Gartman, and Michael O'Brien (one of the turtles) were friends of mine, along with many other great traders, including Charlie D.

I had always thought my success was a result of my ability to look at a chart and determine the market's future direction. Along with a functional understanding of the markets and what drives price, I could integrate the two disciplines into a consistent enough strategy to achieve profitability. For years, I believed this was my most important personal edge. But as I look back, I realize that while these skills contributed greatly to my success, they were not the most important, and it is why I continue to emphasize the following message.



the markets are nearly random, and nearly efficient

the difference between futures prices and certain random walks is too small to detect

yet incredibly, with an effective methodology, a trader can still be profitable

but not for the reasons most people believe

predictions and opinions are often going to be unfounded and incorrect

forward looking chart interpretations are going to be biased and wrong

information will always be asymmetrical,

and destabilizing emotions will interfere and impede with decision making

which means the analytical process, is far from efficient also

yet, a trader can develop a critical edge

and, it its has nothing to do with being wrong or right the market,

nor the frequency with which he is wrong or right,

but, by how much you are right and wrong

“cut your losses, let your profits ride”

its the ultimate trading cliche

but, its the universal truth in trading

money management and trade management

will ultimately be the reason most responsible, for the longevity of any trader’s career

Such a simple yet profound description.

We have heard "cut losses short and let profits run" so often it is a cliche. Yet, cliches are always true, thats why they are cliche.

Personally I find the greatest challenge is consistently embracing losses, recognising that losses tell you something about how to gain.

Great post.

This journal seems to contain an inordinate share of very good posts.

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  #893 (permalink)
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Philly, Pa
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
It also means even more waiting than what I am used to both for set ups and exits. I may need to find a hobby I can do while sitting on my butt all day.

I think that's why there's so much internet porn out there!

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  #894 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Seriously though, I need to find something constructive to help me keep my fingers off the mouse. Otherwise its an exercise in supreme self control....I have some but perhaps not enough......but I can distract myself with something and it will seriously help I think....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #895 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

The Gratitude Project Day 6

I skipped a couple of days....my kid is out of school now and it really messes my schedule up. This time next year I want to be grateful for enough trading success I can take the summer off if i feel like it and not have to worry about money.

However, this today, I am grateful for the opportunity provided by life's circumstances to learn this near impossible pursuit of trading. Once mastered, I will have what I have always wanted in life. Time and geographic freedom.

So while still somewhat frustrated by certain things, far more confident in others, I remain humbled and grateful for the opportunity.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #896 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego, Miami & On the lake (Summer)
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ensign, Ninja, Sierra, TradeStation & MT4
Broker/Data: CQG, TT & FinFX
Favorite Futures: indices/notes/currencies/ metals/energies
 
Posts: 368 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 143 given, 602 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Seriously though, I need to find something constructive to help me keep my fingers off the mouse. Otherwise its an exercise in supreme self control....I have some but perhaps not enough......but I can distract myself with something and it will seriously help I think....

www.teetertv.com

Get good at it and that is 90 minutes a day divided up into 6 sessions.

Albeit extreme; how about an 'in-house elliptical' cross trainer/treadmill?

Or is living within spittin' (very dry air) distance of 'Dante's Inferno' too much work to workout while chillin' @120 degrees in the summer?

Hmm...let's help out PW, eh? Br(i)a{(i)}nstorming time, no?

peace

hedvig

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  #897 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
www.teetertv.com

Get good at it and that is 90 minutes a day divided up into 6 sessions.

Albeit extreme; how about an 'in-house elliptical' cross trainer/treadmill?

Or is living within spittin' (very dry air) distance of 'Dante's Inferno' too much work to workout while chillin' @120 degrees in the summer?

Hmm...let's help out PW, eh? Br(i)a{(i)}nstorming time, no?

peace

hedvig

I know someone here locally that nearly died as a result of one of those teetertv things. It didnt lock in properly and dropped them on their neck....result, permanent spinal cord injury.....not fun. So I will pass but thanks for the suggestion...I think I'd get a bloody nose anyway.

It only 100 today....but its not really hot yet. We had a couple days of 110+ and then dropped back down. Its gets really hot in July/August. Days and days of 110+. Makes for a miserable summer. Hence my suggestion earlier that I am looking forward to next summer when we can bug out of here and spend the summer in San Diego. My favorite city in the world. (So far anyway)

Seriously though, i am considering kettle bells, reading even more books, the elliptical thing is an option. Going through @Lornz 's last couple of posts for more intellectual pursuits although I am a lazy bastard when it comes to things like that. Truthfully, I am at a loss for something to do that allows me flexibility to be at the charts but not staring at every tick.

Wait a minute, I think I'll start an educational website......now to find someone to code up a website for free.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #898 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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Thoughts on oil from Casey Research

The Tricky Calculus of Oil Price Differentials - Casey Research

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #899 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
British Columbia
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NINJA
Broker/Data: ZEN
Favorite Futures: Crude
 
Posts: 1,091 since May 2010
Thanks: 192 given, 484 received

PandsWarrior, thank you. This is a great thread. My gratitude to all in Pandas list and to everybody else who has put up with my ups and downs that have often found an outlet here in the bmt threads. To my first trading group, ZTR, Zondor, Chipotle and AZtrader... It would be our two year anniversary this season... To ZTR, I'm sure you are getting some kind of sideways around the stars right now, lane splitting the planets and galaxies, you are always on my mind.... hoping you will be available to showing us more about life, living, and the universe when we catch up to you. Thanks to everybody!


PandaWarrior View Post
Today I am grateful for my futures.io (formerly BMT) friends. There are a lot of them. In no particular order.....

@ZTR for more than I can ever say publicly. He swore me to silence before he passed. My heartfelt thanks for believing in me long before I believed in myself.
@trippenlatin you know why
@Mickey caine for the companionship and your encyclopedic knowledge of the British royalty
@syxforex for never giving up even in the darkest of hours
@Zondor for his incredible programming skills and for showing me what true health can be like. I am in awe of your physical prowess.
@Ryanb for teaching me all I ever wanted to know about head and shoulders patterns but was afraid to ask
@MWinfrey for the incredible five minute oddessy. Its because of you I am on a five min chart
@VinceVirgil for giving me far more credit than I deserve
@tderrick my brother from the recording capital of the world. I sure enjoy our chats
@soumi71 for grace under pressure and for the incredible accent
@Fat Tails for his integrity in suggesting a free solution when I was prepared to pay
@ThatManFromTexas for his humor and constant reminder that simple is better and for a cool little indie
@GaryD for being so darn transparent. Sometimes I feel like I'm looking the mirror.
@Private Banker for being so kind and forthcoming not just with me but many others on the forum
@gtichauer for being the coolest dude I know in Argentina
@tigertrader for not holding back even though I often thought he should
@Deucalion for sharing his charts and his thought process
@researcher247 for sharing his cool tunes with me, it shortens the day and makes everything else a little groovier
@papa15 for keeping it about the main thing
@Gary for never changing his charts and his post about why he trades. Thanks again Gary
@Gabriyele for the unidentified thread, very entertaining
@liquidcci for telling me static profit targets were ok and that he makes all his money with position sizing

Everyone that voted for me in the best thread competition.....

@Big Mike for the forum, for taking a chance with me as a moderator for subjects I knew nothing about and for his encouragement over the last couple of years.

Everyone that's posted in my threads, sent me PMs about various subjects and for everyone whose read my threads, I think I have well over a 100K views over three threads.

I'm sure I've forgotten a few people, its not by choice.....to those of you I've forgotten, please forgive me.


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  #900 (permalink)
Elite Member
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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syxforex View Post
PandsWarrior, thank you. This is a great thread. My gratitude to all in Pandas list and to everybody else who has put up with my ups and downs that have often found an outlet here in the bmt threads. To my first trading group, ZTR, Zondor, Chipotle and AZtrader... It would be our two year anniversary this season... To ZTR, I'm sure you are getting some kind of sideways around the stars right now, lane splitting the planets and galaxies, you are always on my mind.... hoping you will be available to showing us more about life, living, and the universe when we catch up to you. Thanks to everybody!

Good to see you back Syxforex....I'm glad you mentioned @Chipolte, I could remember his real name but not his screen name...the older I get, the more my brain seems to engage in untimely farts....Sorry Chip, I meant to include you in the list but the screen name simply refused to come to memory.....but now that syxforex has reminded me, I want to mention my thanks to you for being the first person to suggest I might want to hold a trade for 100 ticks....I remember the first one. What a rush. Havn't had one since though....currently working on it as I think this is the key to the kingdom. Not 100 tick trades but holding them until they reach some sort of legit target or the trade is over. Whatever that tick count might be....not just some arbitrary static target for each trade.

I'm waiting on the family right now before we head out the door. I won't be back to the computer until later Sunday afternoon. I want to see how the market responds to the greek debacle. No trading, just spectator at this point.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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