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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #81 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
...
Tomorrow, will be looking at a slightly less complicated set up. During all the trouble today, I kept reducing the number of charts and indicators on the remaining charts to see if that would help. Turns out I don't think I need some of the stuff I have on my charts. More on that tomorrow.

....

Cheers

less indis, more self awareness, you are on the right track.

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  #82 (permalink)
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Weekend summary

I finished the week mildly profitable. Much less than I could have. No worries though. The learning experience I've had from the last two weeks is immeasurable.

Here's what I learned:

1. I can hold for larger targets IF I fee like it. Yesterday I even watched a 40 tick winner turn into a scratch trade because I thought it should have gone up a few more ticks. When it scratched, my normal gut wrenching feeling of having left money on the table simply wasn't there. I didn't like leaving that money on the table but it didn't freak me out like it used to.

2. I can trade with less charts. I ditched the 36 range chart and simplified both my five minute chart and my 12 range trading chart. Less is more.

3. Taking a cue from the past and my experience with these last two weeks in regards to point number 1, I am now going to set all targets dynamically. Range of day x 10% rounded down to the nearest 5. I'll trade all day with that number and be happy with it.

4. I've really developed confidence in my patterns. I've settled on two main ones and a possible third. This has given me further confidence to further refine not only which patterns but when and how many.

Lastly these last two weeks, I've been working on a business plan. I've had one in the past but simply ignored it as a plan requires some measure of consistency and if one thing has been consistent, its my lack of consistency. But with patterns in place, stops more or less ironed out and targeting dialed in, it was time to put the plan together.

Over the last couple of years, I have complied bits and pieces of the plan. This last week the final piece of the puzzle dropped into place. The proper way to size up and when.

So now the plan includes:

1. Individual trade tracking to determine trading metrics from a statistical point of view. Including MAE and MFE, consecutive winners/losers and which trade set ups work best most often.
2. Goals and a way to measure progress against them.
3. Money management procedures. Money management is very different from trade management. Trade management is about stops and targets. Money management is about sizing, drawdown management, etc.
4. Rules of engagement. Definitions of how, when and where to trade and more importantly, when not to trade. Trade stops and daily stops. Trade targets and daily targets.

These items are all intensely personal. They wont fit every one. My stops/targets will simply not make sense to anyone else. They dont need to. They need to fit me and I need to trade to those metrics.

So on Monday, I am starting fresh. Like I just went through a two year long apprenticeship on how to figure out who the hell I am as a trader and how to actually set up a trading business. I'll be open for business for real on Monday.

While I expect mistakes and will need to make adjustments along the way, I feel pretty dialed in at this point. I've sent my trading plan to three people I trust and I will be accountable to them for adherence to that document.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #83 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I finished the week mildly profitable. Much less than I could have. No worries though. The learning experience I've had from the last two weeks is immeasurable.

Here's what I learned:

1. I can hold for larger targets IF I fee like it. Yesterday I even watched a 40 tick winner turn into a scratch trade because I thought it should have gone up a few more ticks. When it scratched, my normal gut wrenching feeling of having left money on the table simply wasn't there. I didn't like leaving that money on the table but it didn't freak me out like it used to.

2. I can trade with less charts. I ditched the 36 range chart and simplified both my five minute chart and my 12 range trading chart. Less is more.

3. Taking a cue from the past and my experience with these last two weeks in regards to point number 1, I am now going to set all targets dynamically. Range of day x 10% rounded down to the nearest 5. I'll trade all day with that number and be happy with it.

4. I've really developed confidence in my patterns. I've settled on two main ones and a possible third. This has given me further confidence to further refine not only which patterns but when and how many.

Lastly these last two weeks, I've been working on a business plan. I've had one in the past but simply ignored it as a plan requires some measure of consistency and if one thing has been consistent, its my lack of consistency. But with patterns in place, stops more or less ironed out and targeting dialed in, it was time to put the plan together.

Over the last couple of years, I have complied bits and pieces of the plan. This last week the final piece of the puzzle dropped into place. The proper way to size up and when.

So now the plan includes:

1. Individual trade tracking to determine trading metrics from a statistical point of view. Including MAE and MFE, consecutive winners/losers and which trade set ups work best most often.
2. Goals and a way to measure progress against them.
3. Money management procedures. Money management is very different from trade management. Trade management is about stops and targets. Money management is about sizing, drawdown management, etc.
4. Rules of engagement. Definitions of how, when and where to trade and more importantly, when not to trade. Trade stops and daily stops. Trade targets and daily targets.

These items are all intensely personal. They wont fit every one. My stops/targets will simply not make sense to anyone else. They dont need to. They need to fit me and I need to trade to those metrics.

So on Monday, I am starting fresh. Like I just went through a two year long apprenticeship on how to figure out who the hell I am as a trader and how to actually set up a trading business. I'll be open for business for real on Monday.

While I expect mistakes and will need to make adjustments along the way, I feel pretty dialed in at this point. I've sent my trading plan to three people I trust and I will be accountable to them for adherence to that document.

Cheers.

Sounds like a very defensive Panda, replete with excuses, espousing a manifesto on Trading Relativism:

there are no universal rules or standards by which to trade
they are totally relative to the trader
and as long as they make him feel good
they are valid, even if they are not optimally profitable

Is your objective to make as much money as possible, or is it to make the process of trading as painless as possible?

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  #84 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Sounds like a very defensive Panda, replete with excuses, espousing a manifesto on Trading Relativism:

there are no universal rules or standards by which to trade
they are totally relative to the trader
and as long as they make him feel good
they are valid, even if they are not optimally profitable

Is your objective to make as much money as possible, or is it to make the process of trading as painless as possible?

I'm not sure I understand your point in reaction to this post. What exactly do you find to be excuses in it?

Ok, my comment on the post is on the following statement:

"So on Monday, I am starting fresh. Like I just went through a two year long apprenticeship on how to figure out who the hell I am as a trader and how to actually set up a trading business. I'll be open for business for real on Monday."

If this is where you are in your journey, figuring out who you are as a trader, should you be 'open for business for real'? ...assuming that means you will be trading live money.


Last edited by monpere; August 14th, 2011 at 02:12 PM.
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  #85 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Sounds like a very defensive Panda, replete with excuses, espousing a manifesto on Trading Relativism:

there are no universal rules or standards by which to trade
they are totally relative to the trader
and as long as they make him feel good
they are valid, even if they are not optimally profitable

Is your objective to make as much money as possible, or is it to make the process of trading as painless as possible?

Yes, I don't get the excuse deal either? Please explain as the post just seems 'negative' to me?

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  #86 (permalink)
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"I can hold for larger targets IF I fee like it".

"My stops/targets will simply not make sense to anyone else. They don't need to. They need to fit me and I need to trade to those metrics"

Statements like these lead me to infer that Panda is still allowing his methodology to be influenced by his emotions. They lead to me to believe that he is still rationalizing his actions, i.e., doing what's "right" for him, not necessarily...what is right, hence my analogy to moral relativism.

When I left the floor and started trading on the screen
, I had underestimated the disconnect between the two venues and it wasn’t until I accepted reality; that I didn’t know anything about electronic trading, that I was able to begin to learn how to trade again. Everything I knew as pit trader had to be eliminated from my mind as I begun anew, tabula rasa.

Being honest with myself and letting go of what had worked and served my success in the past, was the most difficult part, but it was the start. It was the greatest psychological hurdle I had to confront and overcome on the road back to becoming a successful trader. But, it was a necessary prerequisite if I wanted to provide myself the best chance for success.


Last edited by tigertrader; August 14th, 2011 at 05:21 PM.
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  #87 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
"I can hold for larger targets IF I fee like it".

"My stops/targets will simply not make sense to anyone else. They don't need to. They need to fit me and I need to trade to those metrics"

[COLOR=#000000]Statements like these lead me to infer that Panda is still allowing his methodology to be influenced by his emotions. They lead to me to believe that he is still rationalizing his actions, i.e., doing what's "right" for him, not necessarily...what is right, hence my analogy to [I]moral relativism.

Once again, you missed the point completely. The point is this: I mentioned later on in the post that targets will be based on a percentage of the daily range. Sometimes this is quite large and sometimes quite small. On the larger range days, I will now feel comfortable actually attempting to shoot for those larger targets. At the same time, if its not working, I can reduce the target size if I feel like it or I can continue to try and hold for the larger ones. If I feel like it.

The targets and stops are now based on a rational method instead of something that makes me feel good. Those rational methods need to make sense to me and fit my style. If they don't make sense to someone else, to bad. If in the course of time, the method of determining targets results in sub optimal trading potential, I'll revise. But at least I have a metric to trade to and a method of determining if its working or not. The main point is that its dynamic and hopefully will result in taking what the market will give instead of demanding the market give me some arbitrary figure on each and every trade.

This is precisely the opposite of allowing my emotions to dictate my trading. Instead, I've realized my emotions can and do sabotage my trading and that using rational methods that I am emotionally comfortable will result in more consistency. My rational minds says using targets that are function of ATR or ADR is sound. My emotions never really allowed me the freedom to do that. So I defaulted to irrational targets based on emotion. BUT the last two weeks have shown me that nothing bad happens when I trade rationally. Instead, only good happens. Even losers can be looked as "good" in the sense that a trading plan was followed and that specific trade did not work. As long as the reasons for the trade are the same as for the winners, all is well.

So now, I feel emotionally comfortable trading rationally. Does this make sense?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #88 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Once again, you missed the point completely. The point is this: I mentioned later on in the post that targets will be based on a percentage of the daily range. Sometimes this is quite large and sometimes quite small. On the larger range days, I will now feel comfortable actually attempting to shoot for those larger targets. At the same time, if its not working, I can reduce the target size if I feel like it or I can continue to try and hold for the larger ones. If I feel like it.

What daily range do you use for this purpose? The prior day or the current day, or maybe some average of the last X days? If the current day, what do you use for trades that occur early in the session, when range hasn't been established yet?

(Sorry if these details have already been posted and I missed them.)

-----------------------------------------------------

"If you must forecast, forecast often."

-- Edgar Fiedler
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  #89 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
"So on Monday, I am starting fresh. Like I just went through a two year long apprenticeship on how to figure out who the hell I am as a trader and how to actually set up a trading business. I'll be open for business for real on Monday."

If this is where you are in your journey, figuring out who you are as a trader, should you be 'open for business for real'? ...assuming that means you will be trading live money.

Well I could have done a better job of using this metaphor. What I meant is that while I've been trading live for quite a while now, due to the lack of a real plan, I was treating my trading more as a hobby than a real business. However, if you would have asked me if it was a real business, I would have said yes not realizing how wrong I was. This would be coming from someone that has owned several successful businesses over the years.

A real business has products or services with a plan on how to produce or market those goods and services. It has metrics, goals, accounting procedures, a sales methodology, etc..... I had none of these. Now I do. It feels good. This is why I used the term, "I'll be open for real on Monday".

As we all know, success is a journey, not a destination.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #90 (permalink)
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worldwary View Post
What daily range do you use for this purpose? The prior day or the current day, or maybe some average of the last X days? If the current day, what do you use for trades that occur early in the session, when range hasn't been established yet?

(Sorry if these details have already been posted and I missed them.)

I use @Fattail's volatility bands indicator for the range. It has a setting to allow you to see the current day's range along with your choice of historical range. I have mine set to 3 and ten.

I am using the current Globex range to determine the initial range. As it opens up during the day, the indy keeps up with that of course. If it opens up a lot, I'll adjust my targets, if not, I'll just keep them the same as what the overnight session dictates. As time goes on, I'll measure the effectiveness of this and revise as needed.

I have noticed the current day most of the time approximates the most recent 3 days average range, so I am comfortable not worrying that I might miss out by somehow misjudging the range for the day. Occasionally you get a wild day or a super narrow range that throws off the average but in general, its pretty accurate.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; August 14th, 2011 at 06:30 PM. Reason: trying to get the Fattails mention to show up correctly
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