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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #871 (permalink)
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  #872 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
@MWinfrey for the incredible five minute oddessy. Its because of you I am on a five min chart

Incredible and I'm not using a 5 minute at all. Well gee whiz. I guess I can't see the trees for the forest...and yes i know that's reverse.

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  #873 (permalink)
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MWinfrey View Post
Incredible and I'm not using a 5 minute at all. Well gee whiz. I guess I can't see the trees for the forest...and yes i know that's reverse.

it goes to show one man experiment is another man gold.

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  #874 (permalink)
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some minor homework

We've had nothing but selling for the last month or so. A beautiful down trend. Yesterday's low and today's globex low are only three times price has closed this low in over a year. What does this mean? Maybe nothing.

But with the potential double bottom put in and today closing on its highs, I think the time is ripe for a rally. I might be wrong but at the very least, we could see several if not many days simply going sideways on the daily chart. That being said, I think this rally has an upside of 90-92 as a target. That represents around $7 worth of rally. 700 ticks perhaps over the next few days or perhaps couple of weeks. Depends on how long it takes to break the recent swing high at 87.10.

For now, I am looking to be long but cautiously. Recognizing the oscillating nature of price in what appears to be a corrective leg forming at this point. If I were swing trading, I think I would be buying dips at this point on 60M charts. However, I am day trading and that means I trade what I see on a 5M chart. In that light, I'll simply trade what I see on the chart. The HTF is simply for my enjoyment and to see if I can anticipate with some degree of accuracy what price MIGHT do on the daily chart.

Here's my daily chart. Its actually a 1440M chart as NT doesn't seem to get the daily chart setting correct.

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  #875 (permalink)
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"But with the potential double bottom put in and today closing on its highs, I think the time is ripe for a rally. I might be wrong but at the very least, we could see several if not many days simply going sideways on the daily chart. That being said, I think this rally has an upside of 90-92 as a target."

Me: Hey! I resemble that comment.

"If I were swing trading, I think I would be buying dips at this point on 60M charts. The HTF is simply for my enjoyment and to see if I can anticipate with some degree of accuracy what price MIGHT do on the daily chart."

Me: Hey! 2-4 day rally, methinks. Today was a bottom daily cycle. I am buying this b*tch on every pullback and adding to my intial positions taken early in globex before today's pit open (6/12/12). Do great minds think alike or am I retarded??



peace

hedvig

p.s. How the hell does multi-quote work; I'm learning challenged, ya know?


Last edited by researcher247; June 12th, 2012 at 11:15 PM. Reason: I am 'forum thread' illiterate...
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  #876 (permalink)
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$74.71

Those are some serious professional gaps down on the daily, with an admittedly, rather loose interpretation of a diamond formation at current levels. If I may regress back to the days of McGee and Edwards, the majority of the time , they are continuation formations, when they are not - they are most likely to be found at tops, and not bottoms. You can't give the physical stuff away; China has all but turned off the demand spigot. I see the deflationary spiral in commodities continuing, and the dark stuff trading down to 74.71 -70.00.


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So herein lies the problem with technical analysis and other heuristic techniques, they are always going to be open to interpretation and influenced by bias. The crude oil market is in a pronounced down-trend. Yet there are many who are more than willing to pick a bottom, and discount the strength of the trend.

The human mind was made to create patterns. It will see patterns in random data. The human eye tends to pick up the times these patterns accurately called minor bottoms/tops, but it misses all the false signals, and the extent to which they were wrong, during trends.

The mistake is the confusion between prior and posterior probabilities. For example, it's true that a lot of moves to an old low/high, will produce a double bottom/top. All that's telling you is, the probability of having a double bottom/top, given a price move to a previous low/high. What you really want to know is, what is the probability of having a move to a previous low/high, and a reversal in trend, given that you have a double bottom/top.

That is a very different probability. Just because one probability is high, no way implies that the other one is high as well. If 85 percent of all tops and bottoms have property X, but property X also occurs often enough in other patterns, using that pattern as a signal will lead you to ruin.

Yet, these approaches are appealing because they play into powerful human tendencies that induce one to pick bottoms and tops, or get out early form a strong trending trade. It's always tempting to liquidate a good trade on flimsy evidence.


Last edited by tigertrader; June 13th, 2012 at 01:32 AM.
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  #877 (permalink)
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researcher247 View Post
p.s. How the hell does multi-quote work; I'm learning challenged, ya know?

Click the multi-quote button on the first post you want to quote, and the second, third, fourth or etc. Then finally press the regular quote button to bring up the actual reply screen.

Then each post will be quoted, and you can reply to them all.

If you want to multi-quote a single post, the easiest way is just to copy the quote string. For example, for this quote, the string is [QUOTE=researcher247;230684]

So I could quote you multiple times as follows. Remember to close the quote block always with [/quote]


researcher247 View Post
How

blah


researcher247 View Post
the

blah


researcher247 View Post
hell

blah


researcher247 View Post
does

... etc etc

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  #878 (permalink)
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Panda ...just catching up with your posts. Awesomeness on your self reflection and the things we all have to be thankful for. Sounds like you are on the right path in many ways...congrats and best wishes.

re: wave trading. I do not want to mess with your mojo so please ignore me if this is not helpful. I have traded like this for a while. (recently doing other things but...) One thing you may look at in combination with these waves is inside and outside bars to assist with entries (mid wave entries maybe) and exits. In every sense... see the screen shot. Today crude could not get out of the initial balance or 1st hour so the whole day was an inside bar... So if little waves are stuck inside big wave levels don't forget to notice this. On a tighter level (5min) the outside bars are marked with light red and you can see how breaks of these lined up with beginnings of new waves.... and the breaks of these levels let you know that there is a problem with the wave structure - potential chop. The indie I used didn't catch them all so I drew some in with blue. Hope it helps.

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  #879 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
Those are some serious professional gaps down on the daily, with an admittedly, rather loose interpretation of a diamond formation at current levels. If I may regress back to the days of McGee and Edwards, the majority of the time , they are continuation formations, when they are not - they are most likely to be found at tops, and not bottoms. You can't give the physical stuff away; China has all but turned off the demand spigot. I see the deflationary spiral in commodities continuing, and the dark stuff trading down to 74.71 -70.00.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



So herein lies the problem with technical analysis and other heuristic techniques, they are always going to be open to interpretation and influenced by bias. The crude oil market is in a pronounced down-trend. Yet there are many who are more than willing to pick a bottom, and discount the strength of the trend.

The human mind was made to create patterns. It will see patterns in random data. The human eye tends to pick up the times these patterns accurately called minor bottoms/tops, but it misses all the false signals, and the extent to which they were wrong, during trends.

The mistake is the confusion between prior and posterior probabilities. For example, it's true that a lot of moves to an old low/high, will produce a double bottom/top. All that's telling you is, the probability of having a double bottom/top, given a price move to a previous low/high. What you really want to know is, what is the probability of having a move to a previous low/high, and a reversal in trend, given that you have a double bottom/top.

That is a very different probability. Just because one probability is high, no way implies that the other one is high as well. If 85 percent of all tops and bottoms have property X, but property X also occurs often enough in other patterns, using that pattern as a signal will lead you to ruin.

Yet, these approaches are appealing because they play into powerful human tendencies that induce one to pick bottoms and tops, or get out early form a strong trending trade. It's always tempting to liquidate a good trade on flimsy evidence.

I agree with the longer term downside potential here, nearer term, I think we are due a pull back. However, I am having trouble reconciling the inventory build up we've had this year with the need for the all the producers needing 85-90 oil. Then there's the dollar/euro dynamic. If the euro is going to rally like @researcher247 says then we are likely to see a dollar depreciation which means higher oil prices. If the euro takes a dive, the dollar goes up and prices take a dump which would fall in line with higher inventory and slumping world wide demand. Topping it all off is Saudia Arabia saying they intend to continue current production in the face of lower prices and OPEC demands for a decrease in production to help prevent a further deepening of the world wide recession.

So I suppose the big answer is this; who the heck knows what's gonna happen. I vote for lower prices since I want lower gas prices. But I can't move the market with my gas tank.

Here's a slightly more detailed chart with my thinking about a couple of short scenarios....keep in mind this is not my forte so please no trading decisions.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; June 13th, 2012 at 01:57 AM.
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  #880 (permalink)
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websouth View Post
Panda ...just catching up with your posts. Awesomeness on your self reflection and the things we all have to be thankful for. Sounds like you are on the right path in many ways...congrats and best wishes.

re: wave trading. I do not want to mess with your mojo so please ignore me if this is not helpful. I have traded like this for a while. (recently doing other things but...) One thing you may look at in combination with these waves is inside and outside bars to assist with entries (mid wave entries maybe) and exits. In every sense... see the screen shot. Today crude could not get out of the initial balance or 1st hour so the whole day was an inside bar... So if little waves are stuck inside big wave levels don't forget to notice this. On a tighter level (5min) the outside bars are marked with light red and you can see how breaks of these lined up with beginnings of new waves.... and the breaks of these levels let you know that there is a problem with the wave structure - potential chop. The indie I used didn't catch them all so I drew some in with blue. Hope it helps.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Very interesting. I'm glad you posted. I've been noticing the inside and outside bars but have not really explored it yet. I'll spend some time looking at this as well as real time analysis.

Quick question for you....why do you use one hour for the IB? Don't most people use 30 minutes? I don't use the IB at all so doesnt matter to me but I am curious.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; June 13th, 2012 at 02:12 AM.
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