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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #801 (permalink)
Elite Member
Toronto, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Favorite Futures: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Took a few days off from posting. Lost interest for a few days. Had a few things to work on personally and I just didnt want to post.

Back to normal.

I am toying with the idea of posting my PnL as well as my charts. Not sure I'll go that far yet....

Anyway, after a hard sell off overnight, the entire cash session was less than half the overnight range.

I used the daily range x 10% as my profit targets. Targeting 50%+ of the daily range as a measure of effciency means if the range is 100 ticks, then 50 ticks is 50% of the daily range.

Today was 125 ticks for the cash session. I did 62. That seems reasonable to me.

I made two mistakes today. One of omission and one of commission.

I passed on a great trade and took the crappy catholic trade which resulted in a missed 20 tick profit along with a 15 tick loss. A 35 tick mistake.

The other loser was one I was watching closely to set up off the higher time frame and I got distracted and missed the early entry so i took the confirmation trade, it would have been a winner had I put the stop significantly higher. I was unwilling to take that risk and so took a stop and then a winner.

Removing one of of these two mistakes puts at least another 20 ticks of profit on the table.

I am starting to prefer these kinds of days as opposed to the hard trending days.....more opportunity or so it seems.

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lol...the Catholic trade...need for confirmation.

Nice work on a tight day.

BTW, i like the background and the new candles on your chart. Very easy on the eyes...

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  #802 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
lol...the Catholic trade...need for confirmation.

Nice work on a tight day.

BTW, i like the background and the new candles on your chart. Very easy on the eyes...

I am on a quest for simplicity and serene color combinations. Price is the important thing and all the bright flashing colors distract.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #803 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I am on a quest for simplicity and serene color combinations. Price is the important thing and all the bright flashing colors distract.....

I should mention here that simplicity is only useful if in the end, its actually useful. Albert Einstein said to make it as simple as possible but no more.

I've learned some valuable lessons this last week. Simple is better and whatever helps you keep it simple is good.

I'm not an indicator fan. But one thing I've learned this last couple of week is I am not good enough to trade without something to lean on. Without them, I have struggled to maintain confidence in my ability. Continuously second guessing myself and consequently over trading, taking trades off to early, etc...

Then I was goofing off with something and it clicked for me at least in terms of providing rule based entry methods. But even that wasn't enough. I needed to nail the exits. I've been killing myself these last two years trying to decide on where to exit. A runner? fixed targets? scalp? What was I to do?

I watched a video about exits and its like the light went on for me and a bit later on, another light turned on in terms of risk control after a conversation with one of my trading buddies.

Three components of successful trading gelled on Friday afternoon.

1. Rule based entries.....keep it simple and sustainable
2. Rule based exits....make it simple but also dynamic in that they expand and contract with risk and market conditions
3. Risk control. Position sizing in relation to risk is the key here.

I've had all three drilled into my head over the last couple of years but stubborn me, I couldn't package all three together in something that made sense to me....

But now it does.

I am taking the next week or two to sim trade my ability to work with the three R's as detailed above. After that, I have a plan but I need to demonstrate my ability to do what I now have a lot of mental and emotional clarity about.

There will be no charts during the next couple of weeks...but I am going to post my sim pnl during this time. Daily average target is $1600.00. I may sim one week or perhaps two depending on how I feel about my progress.

At the end of the a successful sim trial period, I will be rewriting my business plan, making some adjustments to my spreadsheets as well as embarking what I think will be a new and improved chapter of my trading journey.

Here's to aha moments...

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #804 (permalink)
Elite Member
near Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
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Wish the best to your new (simple!) ideas, PandaWarrior!

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  #805 (permalink)
Elite Member
Newcastle, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: IB
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Posts: 285 since Oct 2010
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Hi
What was the video on exits?
Do you have a link for it?
Neil .

Sent from my GT-I9100T using Tapatalk 2

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  #806 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
Canary Islands, Spain
 
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Posts: 701 since Dec 2010
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PandaWarrior View Post
I should mention here that simplicity is only useful if in the end, its actually useful. Albert Einstein said to make it as simple as possible but no more.

I've learned some valuable lessons this last week. Simple is better and whatever helps you keep it simple is good.

I'm not an indicator fan. But one thing I've learned this last couple of week is I am not good enough to trade without something to lean on. Without them, I have struggled to maintain confidence in my ability. Continuously second guessing myself and consequently over trading, taking trades off to early, etc...

Then I was goofing off with something and it clicked for me at least in terms of providing rule based entry methods. But even that wasn't enough. I needed to nail the exits. I've been killing myself these last two years trying to decide on where to exit. A runner? fixed targets? scalp? What was I to do?

I watched a video about exits and its like the light went on for me and a bit later on, another light turned on in terms of risk control after a conversation with one of my trading buddies.

Three components of successful trading gelled on Friday afternoon.

1. Rule based entries.....keep it simple and sustainable
2. Rule based exits....make it simple but also dynamic in that they expand and contract with risk and market conditions
3. Risk control. Position sizing in relation to risk is the key here.

I've had all three drilled into my head over the last couple of years but stubborn me, I couldn't package all three together in something that made sense to me....

But now it does.

I am taking the next week or two to sim trade my ability to work with the three R's as detailed above. After that, I have a plan but I need to demonstrate my ability to do what I now have a lot of mental and emotional clarity about.

There will be no charts during the next couple of weeks...but I am going to post my sim pnl during this time. Daily average target is $1600.00. I may sim one week or perhaps two depending on how I feel about my progress.

At the end of the a successful sim trial period, I will be rewriting my business plan, making some adjustments to my spreadsheets as well as embarking what I think will be a new and improved chapter of my trading journey.

Here's to aha moments...

Cheers

Great post! Seems like another step forward. When trading, we all need 'something to lean on'. Until we develop competence, we look for crutches like indicators. Once competence starts to emerge, we just feel like we 'have to' put on certain trades, and accept whatever happens because we instinctively recognize good opportunities through our experience.

If you get a chance, check out De Bono's "Simplicity" book:
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There's some insights in that direction (his other books can be helpful too).

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #807 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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NW27 View Post
Hi
What was the video on exits?
Do you have a link for it?
Neil .

Sent from my GT-I9100T using Tapatalk 2

it was one of those emails from a vendor trying to sell something. I've already forgotten the company but will try to find it and post a link.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #808 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Day 1

I made 4 mistakes

1. I tried to anticipate a signal and went early. No dice. Costliest mistake of the day. Throw this out and my day is profitable. This trade had multiple problems. I also had left the size on from the previous trade and entered with that when the risk demanded half that size.
2. I let a winner two ticks from my target turn into a loser. Should have been BE
3. I had a signal I didn't like. I took it because I am still working on a couple of simple filters to decide when NOT to take a trade.
4. I took a 5 min break for lunch. The trade I had been looking for showed up and I missed it.

However, over all I am very satisfied with the days results in terms of simple entry and exit rules. Only think I want to do is add a slight filter to not take certain trades and another one on when to cut losers short. both of these a I have as working theories now. Will validate them the rest of the week.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; May 21st, 2012 at 04:47 PM. Reason: add chart
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  #809 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Charts have all indicators removed for ease of viewing price and location of trades. I am using an indicator but not really ready to post it here yet. Its pretty darn simple indicator. Its one I borrowed from a well known futures.io (formerly BMT) member. I am testing it and finding that each day it is providing clear entries and my exit method is providing logical and easily identifiable exits. Whats missing is better although vastly improved sizing as well as potential scale in methods. I scaled in today on a trade and it made the difference between being profitable and not.

One area I am really dialing in on is when to exercise discretion as NOT take a trade. With no signal, there is no trade but with a signal, I am looking for reasons NOT to take a trade. In other words, to quote @researcher247 I trade by exception only. There are a couple of things I am looking at to filter those trades that are in fact legit signals but offer smaller reward potential and smaller likelihood of payoff. This filter is price action only, no further indicators.

One last thing I am looking at is something I have heard over and over again. Let price action determine when you should exit a bad trade prior to stop being hit. I've never figured out how that is possible. I mean after all, the stop means you are wrong. Not so. Today I saw two trades....the -1000 and the -700 trades turn in to losers but as I watched price action, I knew several bars before they stopped out they were going to be bad trades. But for the purposes of this weeks exercise, I let them play out.

Both trades could have been exited with a much smaller loss and the last one could have been exited at BE at one point long after I knew it was a loser.

I am beginning after all this time to understand chop as a good thing. It needs to be avoided yes if possible but at the same time, all directional moves originate in chop. I prefer the term non directional momentum or NDM. Basically price is coiling up like a spring storing energy in preparation for a directional move. After a while, it explodes in a directional move that we all dream about. So no more dreading NDM. It is to be desired and looked forward to as it preceedes a money making opportunity or an MMO. We make our money waiting through the NDM while anticipating the arrival of an MMO. Once the opportunity presents it self, it must be taken maximum advantage of.

In recognition of this, I am wondering about the concept of risk in light of these MMO's. If one recognizes a very good MMO, should one go at the maximum number of contracts one has available given the account balance and margin requirements? Or should one stick to a specific percentage of the account as risk...ie...1-2-5% of the account as risked on each trade.

As this week has progressed, i am not that concerned about the actual PnL. But next week, I will and will be trying to maximize the PnL every day. Right now I am simply concerned about following signals, learning to filter certain trades out and when to cut the losers short. i think i have a decent handle on this and will be looking to improve the pnl tomorrow while at the same time continuing to tweak the nuances.

I am learning to listen to that part of me called intuition. Listening to that voice that tells you things your head may have ignored or forgotten. Coupling the head and heart together could yield very nice results....

Anyway, cheers....

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; May 23rd, 2012 at 12:45 AM.
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  #810 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Covel Interviews Schwager | The Big Picture

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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