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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #701 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I was chicken today. Excellent entries, nice pull back areas to short from, price honored the levels I was seeing...but I couldn't hold em today.....so I was down 30 ticks before I found my courage.....

Then I couldn't believe price might be long after screwing it up so bad on the short side.

I waited until the major resistance level and trend line was broken before I got long....There was a TON of room to make some ticks before that ever happened though but I waited it out.

I got long before the level was actually broken with a confirmed close above it, had i waited for that, I would have missed it all.

Now to price risk vs information risk. When I was shorting this morning off the levels I was seeing, all I could hear was @FT71 talking about information risk vs price risk. As I was waiting for a momentum bar to take me in, I recognized it as price risk....I've known this all along but it didn't affect me until today. Thats why I got nervous, I was shorting in the middle of the range due to my need to have confirmation. The trades were good, I just talked myself out of them using the logic I should have been in sooner therefore the trades were bad and just get out.....

The long was pretty fast and so didnt have all that much time to second guess it much. I knew where I wanted to be out, and held it that far while tightening up the stop periodically. I had 50 locked in when it hit my target.

Time to go eat Easter leftovers.


What a great description of the psychological issues we face every day!! Being honest with oneself like that is just excellent progress, Panda. If you're aware, you can fix it.

As traders, we get paid for taking on (good) risk. Hopefully it's information risk that we take on.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #702 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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More of the same. Excellent entry opportunities, failure to hold.....at least on the short side.

I am sick of being a wimpy trader.....Wall Street used to have a saying...BSD....you need to read the book The Quants or any of the other books that discuss the CDO meltdown to know what it means but I think a little of that bravdo is necessary to win.

Anyway, still got 54 ticks overall. Not bad but half of what it should have been.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #703 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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As far as I know, there are still BSD's on wall street:

Like this guy:
JPMorgan Trader Accused Of "Breaking" CDS Index Market With Massive Prop Position | ZeroHedge

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  #704 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Oh but they are calling him "The London Whale", not a BSD

Will Bruno Michel Iksil, the London Whale, join Fabrice Pierre Tourre and Jerome Kerviel as French fall guys in financial scandals? - Laurel Zuckerman's Paris Weblog

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  #705 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Cant spell out BSD in the paper

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #706 (permalink)
 kalalex 
Up the Ladder, CA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
More of the same. Excellent entry opportunities, failure to hold.....at least on the short side.

I am sick of being a wimpy trader.....Wall Street used to have a saying...BSD....you need to read the book The Quants or any of the other books that discuss the CDO meltdown to know what it means but I think a little of that bravdo is necessary to win.

Anyway, still got 54 ticks overall. Not bad but half of what it should have been.

I'm still at M&M,,,,not even M&M,,,,crumbs of M&M stage and was going to ask you a question about how you made the transition from M&M to bigger bite.

I was doing ok trading TF for a few ticks here and there with more than 75% win ratio and account grew little by little everyday but as soon as I went for bigger bites (20 or 40 ticks target) the equity curve started dipping south.

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  #707 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
More of the same. Excellent entry opportunities, failure to hold.....at least on the short side.

I am sick of being a wimpy trader.....Wall Street used to have a saying...BSD....you need to read the book The Quants or any of the other books that discuss the CDO meltdown to know what it means but I think a little of that bravdo is necessary to win.

Anyway, still got 54 ticks overall. Not bad but half of what it should have been.


Well, the important thing is, you came out ahead.

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  #708 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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kalalex View Post
I'm still at M&M,,,,not even M&M,,,,crumbs of M&M stage and was going to ask you a question about how you made the transition from M&M to bigger bite.

I was doing ok trading TF for a few ticks here and there with more than 75% win ratio and account grew little by little everyday but as soon as I went for bigger bites (20 or 40 ticks target) the equity curve started dipping south.


Not sure what M&M is but I assume its scalping of some kind....and the transition is by no means over. But I recognize is this. To win over a career, you must have bigger winners than losers and you must have more winning days than losing days.

For the vast number of traders, I suspect that scalping is a discipline they cant sustain. I would have days where I could do no wrong scalping....and then go right back to losing again. It was my discipline.

Trading for larger targets requires a mind shift in terms of focusing on the bigger picture more, understanding where support and resistance is and waiting for both the signal and the target. To be fair, signals are easy. The exit is the where the money is at.

If you experienced draw down trading bigger targets, more than likely what has happened is you are using the same size stops you were when you were scalping, you trailed your stop to soon. You went break even to fast...just look at my chart for proof of that...and you took full stops but not full winners.

Deciding where to exit is the hardest part. I use some fib tools to help me with that. Its not perfect but its repeatable and that is key. Now if I could just actually hold to those targets, I'd be fine.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #709 (permalink)
 Rad4633 
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PandaWarrior

Nice trading, I glance in on your thread time to time.

Might you share what your blue lines are and the settings

Thx In Advance
R

PS your avatar still says beginner, more towards advance now

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  #710 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Rad4633 View Post
PandaWarrior

Nice trading, I glance in on your thread time to time.

Might you share what your blue lines are and the settings

Thx In Advance
R

PS your avatar still says beginner, more towards advance now

Thanks for the kind words. Until I pay off all my debt, live where I want to live and do what I want to do all financed by trading, I will remain a beginner.....

As to the blue lines, its an indie that plots various fib levels off the daily HOD and LOD. I have them set to transparent except for those two.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #711 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I've been struggling with a major allergy attack the last week.....got better yesterday morning and by the evening was in major pain...Massive headache, couldn't breath...all the wonderful symptoms....

Anyway, felt a bit better today but just couldn't really focus....kept coughing and in general just didnt feel like trading today...

But I gave it a go....

2 small losers before the number and then the spike after news...which by the way, the price action after news did not seem to fit with the actual news itself, which often happens in CL....

Anyway, I took a break for an hour or so, came back to just watch it...no way was I gonna trade anymore in my condition.

It was a nice trend day after the fireworks.....but I just let it go....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #712 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've been struggling with a major allergy attack the last week.....got better yesterday morning and by the evening was in major pain...Massive headache, couldn't breath...all the wonderful symptoms....


It was a nice trend day after the fireworks.....but I just let it go....



Good self control... you know how important it is to "feel" like trading.

Get better.



AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #713 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I am feeling a bit better but still coughing to much. I hate allergy season.

Anyway, got a small stop on first entry, then basically stopped and reversed, got my loser back and then started thinking we were in for a nice long day....

So I got in, held it for about 30 minutes and it started to stall....here is where I am weak. Not holding to a full target.

I took 20 ticks after it went 25 in my favor, and then saw it run straight to my original target of 103.60 in the next ten minutes.

30 Minutes is a long time for me in a trade. I'm an instant gratification junkie trying desperately to kick the habit.

No more real entries for me until much later. There was a break out I could have taken but didn't...it was a slow grind up as well.

Then I just waited and listened to Norah Jones for a while. She makes me feel good all over!

I noticed a short setting up and was chatting away in the chat box and missed it....thats what I get for not paying attention but the conversation with @liquidcci was worth it. Thanks liquidcci.

Net of 23 ticks today...I did get a few on a premature short but not counting those....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #714 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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Ooooo..... Norah


Aj

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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  #715 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I didn't see the market well this morning...well actually it was not a case of seeing the market well, it was a case of improper sizing for the amount of risk I was taking....

Trade one I bought the support level and was just taken out. Not a problem, this one was a legit stop out.

Trade two. went short with larger size than I should have for this size of entry bar...the stop would have been 45 ticks away. I could have handled that with one lot but I traded to big and freaked out.

Trade three. Same issue. and I knew we were going straight into support but I figured it would break....market was short. it didn't break...and I got out...again to large of size......although this one was better than the last one.

Today was a lesson in proper size management....something I need to work on....but I feel I have been doing it ok for a while, its the occasional stupidity that draws down your account....and why a daily stop limit is important...

I didn't hit my stop but I decided to stop myself out since I was not behaving well.



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #716 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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Hi PW,

When I trade my 'core methods' I trade size.

I am curious how you treat Friday overall?

When I traded small size, Friday was more like a 'normal' day to me.

For a long time I have traded 'size' in the markets I trade intraday (size as it is defined to me).

My Friday is about

a) trading a bit more conservatively (I wait like a perverted stalker for a high reward:risk setup)
b) '1 & done' (1 win & done) in each market I follow (if it happens).
c) No trading 1.5 hours after any market (pit) has opened.

Just wondering how you feel about Fridays?

If price action is a bit slow for the 1st 90 minutes (conservatively speaking); would you consider trading CL up to 11:30 or 12 noon? Just wondering.

My trading partner believes Fridays should be like the corporate world. 90 minutes of 'office time' and then you are 'out of the zone.'

I like to hear from others about their Friday trading philosophy.

Mine is 'do no harm to a good week' but take a high-quality setup (1) in each market you follow. If you b.e. on your 1st trade in that market--wait for up to 1 more high-quality setup and take it and be done.

I have done this for 26 years now. If I make 1-1.5% net profit on margin for a Friday I am always pleased.

peace

Hedvig

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  #717 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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researcher247 View Post

I like to hear from others about their Friday trading philosophy.

On Fridays, after my first sizable winner (typically in the first hour), I quit for the day/week, do review of my trading that week, and then work on my soft skills (reading, meditation, experimentation...etc.).

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #718 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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researcher247 View Post
Hi PW,

When I trade my 'core methods' I trade size.

I am curious how you treat Friday overall?

When I traded small size, Friday was more like a 'normal' day to me.

For a long time I have traded 'size' in the markets I trade intraday (size as it is defined to me).

My Friday is about

a) trading a bit more conservatively (I wait like a perverted stalker for a high reward:risk setup)
b) '1 & done' (1 win & done) in each market I follow (if it happens).
c) No trading 1.5 hours after any market (pit) has opened.

Just wondering how you feel about Fridays?

If price action is a bit slow for the 1st 90 minutes (conservatively speaking); would you consider trading CL up to 11:30 or 12 noon? Just wondering.

My trading partner believes Fridays should be like the corporate world. 90 minutes of 'office time' and then you are 'out of the zone.'

I like to hear from others about their Friday trading philosophy.

Mine is 'do no harm to a good week' but take a high-quality setup (1) in each market you follow. If you b.e. on your 1st trade in that market--wait for up to 1 more high-quality setup and take it and be done.

I have done this for 26 years now. If I make 1-1.5% net profit on margin for a Friday I am always pleased.

peace

Hedvig

I've not really thought about the days of the week beyond inventory day for CL. Since I only trade CL, I dont worry to much about other news...FOMC, Housing, Jobs, PMI, thats about it.....As to certain days being better than others for trading, I just don't know. I have not tracked that aspect of my trading.

To be quite frank and transparent, I do not feel my trading has progressed to the point where I can say I ONLY take A set ups, I always follow my plan and the only real thing I need to work on is the finer details....I trade occasionally in a manner that is not in my own best interest, I get impatient and get in early or I am fearful and get in late....both of which lead to poor judgement in my trade management.

I am figuring this thing out as I go....which is a very piss poor way of doing it. I've talked to other more advanced traders over the last couple of years, they have given me good advice, I have taken it in and I can see where I violate their advice but that does not mean its any easier to take it during a live trade.

Basically, at this point, I still feel like there is a level of confidence missing in how I view the market states....long/short/sideways. Like I need one additional piece of knowledge or experience to really drive it home for me.....its frustrating.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #719 (permalink)
 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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Thanks for the response.

I have a weekly journal I publish on another website that deals with the psychology of being a risk-management specialist. I write a review every Friday.

I mention several trading psychologists and personal exercises I use and have used throughout the years--as well as my 'interests' outside trading.

Personally, I think if someone can use iron-will discipline for 500 setups (legitimate trade setups) consecutively--then, that is something to build on.

I believe you have sufficient TA skills/trendlines/pullbacks/trendline breaks/S&R reversal zones that IF you were able to eliminate (@1st maybe 50% of your impulse/breaking-the-rules/bullshit trades) for a month and then up to 75% of those trades in the following 12 weeks you would feel much more satisfied with the work you do each day {my opinion only}.

I am with the trend (1st and 2nd pullback) and a momentum-breakout with a higher(s) timeframe intraday trader.

A quote that I read every morning is

"I focus entirely on remaining out of the market. I trade by exception only."
----------------------
You are a sharp guy and I respect your work on your 'minds' aspect of trading.

Rule-based setups that are nearly 100% mechanical (a checklist if you will) with ultra-maniacal discipline each and every second by second and minute by minute early in my career killed my 'fear of missing out' and 'need for speed.'

That, and every weekend doing a mathematical 'compare & contrast' paper on "legit entries" vs ALL my entries.

The $100.00 bill I had to light a match to in front of my mentor for every 'impulse/fear of missing out/revenge' trade about 1-2 X's a week for 6 months probably assisted me also.

Trade with discipline.

peace

Hedvig

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  #720 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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researcher247 View Post
Thanks for the response.

I have a weekly journal I publish on another website that deals with the psychology of being a risk-management specialist. I write a review every Friday.

I mention several trading psychologists and personal exercises I use and have used throughout the years--as well as my 'interests' outside trading.

Personally, I think if someone can use iron-will discipline for 500 setups (legitimate trade setups) consecutively--then, that is something to build on.

I believe you have sufficient TA skills/trendlines/pullbacks/trendline breaks/S&R reversal zones that IF you were able to eliminate (@1st maybe 50% of your impulse/breaking-the-rules/bullshit trades) for a month and then up to 75% of those trades in the following 12 weeks you would feel much more satisfied with the work you do each day {my opinion only}.

I am with the trend (1st and 2nd pullback) and a momentum-breakout with a higher(s) timeframe intraday trader.

A quote that I read every morning is

"I focus entirely on remaining out of the market. I trade by exception only."
----------------------
You are a sharp guy and I respect your work on your 'minds' aspect of trading.

Rule-based setups that are nearly 100% mechanical (a checklist if you will) with ultra-manical discipline each and every second by second and minute by minute early in my career killed my 'fear of missing out' and 'need for speed.'

That, and every weekend doing a mathematical 'compare & contrast' paper on "legit entries" vs ALL my entries.

The $100.00 bill I had to light a match to in front of my mentor for every 'impulse/fear of missing out/revenge' trade about 1-2 X's a week for 6 months probably assisted me also.

Trade with discipline.

peace

Hedvig

Thanks for the compliments. Much needed today for some reason.

I don't know about 500 set ups...thats a lot but something smaller is doable...say 50....then 100 then 150...etc....I get about 3-5 set ups a day on the 5M chart. Thats 10-20 days of trading....essentially a month. I am going to start a log, only legit setups and cross them off as I go. The goal is to get to 50.

The trouble is this, my set ups are somewhat discretionary although I can see my bullshit trade with extreme clarity....I do however, have at least one set up that's pretty straight forward in terms of how it looks on the chart. I'll start with that one. I'm working on another one but it requires an entry that makes me uncomfortable....basically a blind entry with NO confirmation....these usually turn out well but I have a very hard time taking them. I'll log these separately both the ones I take and the ones I don't for an overall count.....

Thanks again.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #721 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
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researcher247 View Post
Hi PW,

When I trade my 'core methods' I trade size.

I am curious how you treat Friday overall?

When I traded small size, Friday was more like a 'normal' day to me.

For a long time I have traded 'size' in the markets I trade intraday (size as it is defined to me).

My Friday is about

a) trading a bit more conservatively (I wait like a perverted stalker for a high reward:risk setup)
b) '1 & done' (1 win & done) in each market I follow (if it happens).
c) No trading 1.5 hours after any market (pit) has opened.

Just wondering how you feel about Fridays?

If price action is a bit slow for the 1st 90 minutes (conservatively speaking); would you consider trading CL up to 11:30 or 12 noon? Just wondering.

My trading partner believes Fridays should be like the corporate world. 90 minutes of 'office time' and then you are 'out of the zone.'

I like to hear from others about their Friday trading philosophy.

Mine is 'do no harm to a good week' but take a high-quality setup (1) in each market you follow. If you b.e. on your 1st trade in that market--wait for up to 1 more high-quality setup and take it and be done.

I have done this for 26 years now. If I make 1-1.5% net profit on margin for a Friday I am always pleased.

peace

Hedvig

Hello Hedvig,

I noticed you said you have been doing this, I assume trading, for 26 years now. You must have seen quite a bit over that many years.

For myself, on the brokerage side, I have witnessed many changes over the last 15 plus years, but I have only been trading futures a short time. The main difference of course, is the much higher leverage and as such, the much shorter time frames holding a particular asset.

But from the administration side, what is the biggest change you have seen and had to make because of the significant increase in derivative trading over that time period, with the explosion of electronic trading and the globalization of derivative markets?. And how have you had to change or adapt your methods to keep up with those changes?

You cannot possibly trade the same way now as 26 years ago when you first began. Or can you? my experience with derivatives is decidely short, so I am interested in your experiences. I would also like to find out where I can see your weekly recap as I am interested in learning more about your approach.

Thnaks for your post.

VinceVirgil

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  #722 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I have got to figure out a way to make my charts less messy...I am currently marking the swings manually...I dont like the indie that does it and the S/R areas along with trend lines....Price can be obscured by all my markings...then if I put in my desired levels for targets, it seems like to much..

I made several mistakes today.

1. I did not enter on the break down area even though it did exactly what I like to see it do....missed opportunity.
2. trade 2 I entered, thought better of it, exited, reentered at a much worse price, held through several bars of heat, exited at +1 which ended up being -1 due to slippage only to see price hit my target a few bars later...the mistake in entry made me just want a graceful exit. Never mind the fact i had my stop in the correct location for both the first short and the second one....argh...
3. Trade 3, a break out trade, I usually take the break of the bar that clears the break out level....I took the first one and then waited for what seemed like forever....trailed the stop up, got hit, original stop never touched....damn....
4. Entered on the pull back levels.....took trade off 5 ticks ahead of my original target. I had the resistance area as the target.....two bars to soon.

So I made money today, but it wasn't because I traded well, its because my mistakes were not so large I couldn't over come them. To be fair, I had 75 ticks of opportunity, I got 20. Execution and patience....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #723 (permalink)
 researcher247 
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Hello Hedvig,

I noticed you said you have been doing this, I assume trading, for 26 years now. You must have seen quite a bit over that many years.

For myself, on the brokerage side, I have witnessed many changes over the last 15 plus years, but I have only been trading futures a short time. The main difference of course, is the much higher leverage and as such, the much shorter time frames holding a particular asset.

But from the administration side, what is the biggest change you have seen and had to make because of the significant increase in derivative trading over that time period, with the explosion of electronic trading and the globalization of derivative markets?. And how have you had to change or adapt your methods to keep up with those changes?

You cannot possibly trade the same way now as 26 years ago when you first began. Or can you? my experience with derivatives is decidely short, so I am interested in your experiences. I would also like to find out where I can see your weekly recap as I am interested in learning more about your approach.

Thnaks for your post.

VinceVirgil

-----------------
I think I could write a book for this reply!

Short answer. As a beginner I used 15/30/60m/daily charts and traded a variety of markets intraday (over 5) but in a swingtrading fashion.

In the last 15 years I have used volume and price charting intraday and limit it to up to 3 different markets and never trade more than a total of 3.5 total hours intraday.

Electronic markets only made it easier to put in orders. Way back in the late 80's and up to mid 90's it was all by phone orders. Had to do a daily fax 'run' each day to my broker(s) up until late 90's. In summary, everything is easier outside of the actual trading and much cheaper.

Price action has not changed. Trading is many multiples cheaper now; that is for sure.

With a shortened workday I have more time to devote to my diversified swingtrading methods that myself and my trading partner focus on outside daytrading.

I have a thread on ET; it is by parts trading method/management & by parts my other less honorable interests.

Forums - Deep thoughts...

peace

Hedvig

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  #724 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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I have got to figure out a way to make my charts less messy...I am currently marking the swings manually...I dont like the indie that does it and the S/R areas along with trend lines....Price can be obscured by all my markings...then if I put in my desired levels for targets, it seems like to much..
..

click on your lines hold shift key, scroll up using middle wheel as long as number is > 1 it will fall behind the price.

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  #725 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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I have got to figure out a way to make my charts less messy...I am currently marking the swings manually...I dont like the indie that does it and the S/R areas along with trend lines....Price can be obscured by all my markings...then if I put in my desired levels for targets, it seems like to much..

I made several mistakes today.

1. I did not enter on the break down area even though it did exactly what I like to see it do....missed opportunity.
2. trade 2 I entered, thought better of it, exited, reentered at a much worse price, held through several bars of heat, exited at +1 which ended up being -1 due to slippage only to see price hit my target a few bars later...the mistake in entry made me just want a graceful exit. Never mind the fact i had my stop in the correct location for both the first short and the second one....argh...
3. Trade 3, a break out trade, I usually take the break of the bar that clears the break out level....I took the first one and then waited for what seemed like forever....trailed the stop up, got hit, original stop never touched....damn....
4. Entered on the pull back levels.....took trade off 5 ticks ahead of my original target. I had the resistance area as the target.....two bars to soon.

So I made money today, but it wasn't because I traded well, its because my mistakes were not so large I couldn't over come them. To be fair, I had 75 ticks of opportunity, I got 20. Execution and patience....


For your last trade, did you trade off support? Or did you wait for confirmation? Like a good Catholic.

I ask because that trade could have been the trade of the day, because price did run till 103. Do you think the stop out a couple bars earlier influenced your judgement on the last trade?

I only ask because I am consiously attempting to not let a previous stop out affect my decisions, or have less of and impact, on my next trade. I know it should have zero impact, but, we are all imperfect creatures, are we not?

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 PandaWarrior 
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For your last trade, did you trade off support? Or did you wait for confirmation? Like a good Catholic.

I ask because that trade could have been the trade of the day, because price did run till 103. Do you think the stop out a couple bars earlier influenced your judgement on the last trade?

I only ask because I am consiously attempting to not let a previous stop out affect my decisions, or have less of and impact, on my next trade. I know it should have zero impact, but, we are all imperfect creatures, are we not?

I was stopped out because I took a break out trade....a no no most of the time for me. I did put the stop in the right place and then after i got a blue candle that closed in my direction, I moved the stop up....of course it got hit, it was in the wrong place....so I took the loss and entered in spot I should have in the first place....

Yes, the stop did influence me but not as much as before...

The trade was entered on the first break of the the candle that touched support. Would I have liked to take the trade at the support line? Yes of course, however, I've always gotten run over when I do this...for some reason I've gotten 100% of the losers and virtually none of the winners.....so my trading religion is still Catholic for a while longer.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #727 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Inventory day, my least favorite day of the week... so much can go wrong on these days...and its roll over week....I watched for three hours before I did anything....must be some sort of record for me!

Anyway, I've been quantifying my entry and exit methodology a bit more these last couple of weeks. Relying more and more on swings to define market state....and I like this little indicator I picked up somewhere a few months ago that colors the bars.....odd, I am not an indicator fan but it more or less colorizes what I have been trying to do anyway.....I'll hang on and see.

Today was a one and done day.....I waited long enough, got the spike I needed and now I dont feel like sitting through the rest of the day which could be just a sideways grind.....dont know, dont care.


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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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How do you define market states? Is there some criteria that says market is short or long and can you see it at a glance 10 feet away from your chart? Can you do it consistently in real time or is there guessing going on? Do you ever catch yourself saying things like "I can't figure out if its long or short"? If you do, determining market state remains a mystery to you......

A friend told me recently that I needed a consistent repeatable method to determine market state....so I gave it a whirl...after a few attempts, he told me I was full of BS...that I had no way to consistently determine market state.....this was after I kept telling him the market was sideways.....he told me there was no sideways...only up or down....of course I did not believe him and he told me to prove him wrong...

So I set out to locate sideways markets using a method of locating swings and determining market state from those swings.....I've looked at many many many days of charts....lo and behold, there was no sideways, only long or short....long and short can have poor momentum to be sure and feel like sideways, but there is no sideways.... crafting a response to the market state is another matter....long, short or flat are the possible responses but determining market state first is the key.....

Another thing I've found doing this is that somethings what looks like a nice long isn't....if the market is short...and that nice long can stay that way for a long time.....well past what I would have otherwise thought of as a great long entry.....not to say I can't trade those, just know they are counter trend....and to take profit quickly......

I feel like a new vista just opened up....one I hadn't known before....it also explains why some great looking set ups fail so fast.

I've also spent some time figuring out when to cut a loser short...there has to be a repeatable method to this...something that invalidates the trade long before a stop is hit...and for at least the next few weeks, I think I've discovered something while not perfect, can suffice......more as I test it.

Wondering if I haven't taken the next step......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #729 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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PandaWarrior View Post
How do you define market states? Is there some criteria that says market is short or long and can you see it at a glance 10 feet away from your chart? Can you do it consistently in real time or is there guessing going on? Do you ever catch yourself saying things like "I can't figure out if its long or short"? If you do, determining market state remains a mystery to you......

A friend told me recently that I needed a consistent repeatable method to determine market state....so I gave it a whirl...after a few attempts, he told me I was full of BS...that I had no way to consistently determine market state.....this was after I kept telling him the market was sideways.....he told me there was no sideways...only up or down....of course I did not believe him and he told me to prove him wrong...

So I set out to locate sideways markets using a method of locating swings and determining market state from those swings.....I've looked at many many many days of charts....lo and behold, there was no sideways, only long or short....long and short can have poor momentum to be sure and feel like sideways, but there is no sideways.... crafting a response to the market state is another matter....long, short or flat are the possible responses but determining market state first is the key.....

Another thing I've found doing this is that somethings what looks like a nice long isn't....if the market is short...and that nice long can stay that way for a long time.....well past what I would have otherwise thought of as a great long entry.....not to say I can't trade those, just know they are counter trend....and to take profit quickly......

I feel like a new vista just opened up....one I hadn't known before....it also explains why some great looking set ups fail so fast.

I've also spent some time figuring out when to cut a loser short...there has to be a repeatable method to this...something that invalidates the trade long before a stop is hit...and for at least the next few weeks, I think I've discovered something while not perfect, can suffice......more as I test it.

Wondering if I haven't taken the next step......

If you're looking for an objective definition of trend/no trend, up/down, they do exist. Of course, they are inaccurate, but everything in trading is shades of gray.

You can define a trend using the classical Dow definition (Up is HHs and HLs, Down is LLs and LHs). Maybe you can do this on a higher timeframe than you trade and then only trade 'with trend'.

Another is using Woodies CCI. Now, I am not particularly fond of it. I feel it's probably one of the worst methodologies out there..... but Woodies CCI has an objective trend/no trend indicator.

YM 5 min. today below. The top line in the indicator is trend.
Green = Trend. Brown = No Trend.
The line below indicates if the trend is up or down.
Blue = Up. Brown = Down.
How they calculate it, you'll have to dig on their web site, but it is objective.


"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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bwasi
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PandaWarrior View Post
How do you define market states? Is there some criteria that says market is short or long and can you see it at a glance 10 feet away from your chart? Can you do it consistently in real time or is there guessing going on? Do you ever catch yourself saying things like "I can't figure out if its long or short"? If you do, determining market state remains a mystery to you......

A friend told me recently that I needed a consistent repeatable method to determine market state....so I gave it a whirl...after a few attempts, he told me I was full of BS...that I had no way to consistently determine market state.....this was after I kept telling him the market was sideways.....he told me there was no sideways...only up or down....of course I did not believe him and he told me to prove him wrong...

So I set out to locate sideways markets using a method of locating swings and determining market state from those swings.....I've looked at many many many days of charts....lo and behold, there was no sideways, only long or short....long and short can have poor momentum to be sure and feel like sideways, but there is no sideways.... crafting a response to the market state is another matter....long, short or flat are the possible responses but determining market state first is the key.....

Another thing I've found doing this is that somethings what looks like a nice long isn't....if the market is short...and that nice long can stay that way for a long time.....well past what I would have otherwise thought of as a great long entry.....not to say I can't trade those, just know they are counter trend....and to take profit quickly......

I feel like a new vista just opened up....one I hadn't known before....it also explains why some great looking set ups fail so fast.

I've also spent some time figuring out when to cut a loser short...there has to be a repeatable method to this...something that invalidates the trade long before a stop is hit...and for at least the next few weeks, I think I've discovered something while not perfect, can suffice......more as I test it.

Wondering if I haven't taken the next step......


Market states..hmm...but the trader's mind state is more important.
Your mind states is good PW, thats why you're currently profitable.
I hope market states will not alter your profitable mind state, as market context keep changing more than just up & down like a plane

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  #731 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Anagami View Post
If you're looking for an objective definition of trend/no trend, up/down, they do exist. Of course, they are inaccurate, but everything in trading is shades of gray.

You can define a trend using the classical Dow definition (Up is HHs and HLs, Down is LLs and LHs). Maybe you can do this on a higher timeframe than you trade and then only trade 'with trend'.

Another is using Woodies CCI. Now, I am not particularly fond of it. I feel it's probably one of the worst methodologies out there..... but Woodies CCI has an objective trend/no trend indicator.

YM 5 min. today below. The top line in the indicator is trend.
Green = Trend. Brown = No Trend.
The line below indicates if the trend is up or down.
Blue = Up. Brown = Down.
How they calculate it, you'll have to dig on their web site, but it is objective.



You'll never see an oscillator on my charts....I dont believe in them. I'm using the DOW method or at least a variation of it....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Been looking at historical charts today in light of a couple of things I learned this last week....I've learned the market is far more generous than I have realized...It only asks two things in exchange for its gifts....patience and discipline. Discipline to wait for ideal conditions and patience to allow the gift to arrive on its own terms....instant gratification is a rare thing in this game....it happens to be sure but more often than not, the old adage that "good things come to those who wait" is certainly true....

I've been measuring time today...from start to finish, using a way to determine swings and targets, anything from 5 mins to 5 hours is necessary to realize the markets gifts....average looks to be about 50-120 minutes....far longer than anything ive ever held before....last week I held trades for 25-65 minutes without to much stress...this next week, I am going to see gifts in my account and I am prepared to wait for them....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #733 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Narrative is on the chart. I made three errors today. One involving entry and the rest regarding stops.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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last trade looks to make it to original target but after ten ticks and being really tired, I was done.

+88 today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #735 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
last trade looks to make it to original target but after ten ticks and being really tired, I was done.

+88 today.


Nice work today.

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  #736 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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Panda,

What is that at the bottom of your screen? Is it a custom toolbar that allows you do use drawing tools and change colors etc? How can I create that?

David

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 PandaWarrior 
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David_R View Post
Panda,

What is that at the bottom of your screen? Is it a custom toolbar that allows you do use drawing tools and change colors etc? How can I create that?

David

here is the tool and website with a brief tutorial

NinjaTrader Indicators :: Richard Todd

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Attached Files
Register to download File Type: zip ZDrawOptions_20111216.zip (3.9 KB, 145 views)
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  #738 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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Nice trading today P Dub

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  #739 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I felt like I was on a roller coaster today. up down....long stretches of sideways.

First trade was a premarket 78% PB. I got filled and about 20 seconds later my stop got taken out....some stupid t hing abut Iran going to stop its nuke program...yeah right...anyway, that one cost me a bit...I had my catastrophic stop in and was moving it to the correct location and it just got hammered. Then watched the Iran euphoria cause a 60-70 tick dump in a few seconds....just watched it go...

Then fat fingered a limit order short as a market order long....dont ask....finally got the short order in, and price stalled out....then I hear things in my head from some dumb webinar I went to that said to have a time stop as well, so i stopped myself out....then a different voice said to me, you dummy, the reason for the trade is not over....nothing changed except time and time is irrelevant...so I shorted again and held up to the inventory number....stopped out just before news and watched it take off without me....damn and damn again.....I did get short after a bit and got a nice trade out of it....

Then I waited again, got short at the break of support, stopped out when price finally reacted to the FOMC announcement, reversed my position and realized I dont do reversals....and watched it run almost 100 ticks without me....

Somethig is seriously wrong here. I have developed the ability to hold through the chop like I ever thought I could, but once a winner gets going, I have a terrible time with it.....got half the equation correct....mental demons...they can be terrible. Completely rational person doing completely irrational things....

On a side note, I traded today with almost a naked chart....basically fib levels, levels from yesterday and S/R. I dont feel like I did a bad job of reading price action today, I did do a terrible job of executing and minimizing mistakes and not holding trades longer.....the long at the end was a valid trade.....I should have recognized there had been almost no pull backs today and just gone with it.....only real target was HOD.

Another thing thats been happening lately is winners into losers...at least trades I've had green on. Some of these trades have had as much as 25 ticks of profit and I held them to full stops since the premise of the trade was supposedly not over.....this causes me some grief....and I'm not sure what to do about it. I refuse to go BE to soon as I have been BE+1 hundreds of times only to see it go my direction a few minutes later.....what to do?????


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  #740 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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"Completely rational person doing completely irrational things...."


That statement sure summarizes a lot of my trading days....

My only comment on your frustrations today is that about a year ago you struggled with going for larger targets, you then switched to smaller targets for a while and had good, if not even great, success. I understand your desire to go for the larger targets, but not every trade is meant to go for the gold, but a lot of gold nuggets can eventually add up to a lot of gold.....eat that elephant one bite at a time. You control your losses so well, you are going to come out way ahead in the end....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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 PandaWarrior 
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papa15 View Post
"Completely rational person doing completely irrational things...."


That statement sure summarizes a lot of my trading days....

My only comment on your frustrations today is that about a year ago you struggled with going for larger targets, you then switched to smaller targets for a while and had good, if not even great, success. I understand your desire to go for the larger targets, but not every trade is meant to go for the gold, but a lot of gold nuggets can eventually add up to a lot of gold.....eat that elephant one bite at a time. You control your losses so well, you are going to come out way ahead in the end....

Currently I am using a dynamic targeting method...based on fibs...historically it has proven to be really accurate and dependable....however, I have noticed that targets derived from very large swings can be problematic.....perhaps a more conservative target on those would be good....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #742 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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The constant battle, my friend... You know I struggle with this also.

I just move my stop along and place it below the larger PB swings and then tighten up when I see
a battle coming. What else can we do?

Neither of us can stand the fixed targets, so we have to take what the market willing gives.

The pain of only making $50 and being stopped out in the battle and then having price runaway
is easier for me than just taking, say,15 ticks and having price run right through for 75 ticks in a perfect
slow trend.

I have to be in the big fight

Just don't let it come all the way back, right?

I think it's easy to get lost in the quest to capture the whole move. I mean how much do you need to earn
a day to make a decent living ... $300-$600??? That's not a whole lot of ticks ...

We both need to keep our eye on the prize - winning most every day ... meager or large.... don't give all the
money back that the trading fairies give you. It is a gift, don't waste it.

wow.... I went a little Zen there for a bit

Aj's .02


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 websouth 
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Just a thought looking at some of your trades. You have pretty bare charts which is nice. You might try to watch the midpoint of the previous bars body for the bar by bar battle. If you get a close past this point on the previous bar many times the trend is in trouble but if not then you can stay in. This doesn't mean you won't take some heat.

But maybe this would help. Sometimes the simple things work the best.



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 PandaWarrior 
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Just a thought looking at some of your trades. You have pretty bare charts which is nice. You might try to watch the midpoint of the previous bars body for the bar by bar battle. If you get a close past this point on the previous bar many times the trend is in trouble but if not then you can stay in. This doesn't mean you won't take some heat.

But maybe this would help. Sometimes the simple things work the best.

Thank you.... I do pay a little bit of attention to this but never really considered actually using it as a trading tool....I will from now on....

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 tderrick 
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Just a thought looking at some of your trades. You have pretty bare charts which is nice. You might try to watch the midpoint of the previous bars body for the bar by bar battle. If you get a close past this point on the previous bar many times the trend is in trouble but if not then you can stay in. This doesn't mean you won't take some heat.

But maybe this would help. Sometimes the simple things work the best.





oooooo I like that...


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 zt379 
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Just a thought looking at some of your trades. You have pretty bare charts which is nice. You might try to watch the midpoint of the previous bars body for the bar by bar battle. If you get a close past this point on the previous bar many times the trend is in trouble but if not then you can stay in. This doesn't mean you won't take some heat.

But maybe this would help. Sometimes the simple things work the best.



Attached chart (CL 25_04_2012) I'm using a similar concept but with the POC per bar;
(black lines on each bar)..using the GomMP (or TimeTrader's 4t4) set to Per Bar).

regards

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 Deucalion 
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I felt like I was on a roller coaster today. up down....long stretches of sideways. ....so what...won't be interesting if it was easy

................Somethig is seriously wrong here. ................got half the equation correct....mental demons...they can be terrible. Completely rational person doing completely irrational things....Sure, mental demons are big, but you already said half the equation is correct. Nothing wrong with you, stop playing games with yourself. Pullback a bit and see the trees, focus on the daily chart a bit more...your path to simplicity is an optimal move, just get out of your own way. Don't overthink it, and try to intellectualize everything...and as usual if I am off base, feel free to bitch....I do have thick skin .....................

Do you see the why I mentioned the daily pin bar yesterday in the video, the follow-on today with impulse A and B, and the simple DT and the cup and handle and the consolidation that is typical with primary moves. Like you said, simplicity rules!


 
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 PandaWarrior 
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Well what an interesting day...a very narrow range but I had fun today...I got beat up, but thats my fault.....I got a bit confused during the early consolidation and went short against a long trend....i dont usually do that kind of thing.

I buy the low of the day...for 13 ticks....aargh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am learning to put my stops in better places and to take trades closer to where my stops actually should be...but that being said, even with that in mind, i got shaken out a couple of times today.

I'm tired now so no more narrative....but I will say, I over thought things today and I lost perspective when price was consolidating....stepping back to see the trees is a good idea @Deucalion.

At the end, I missed the entire message price was telling me and I traded with bad information and also with some amount of fear of missing out.....but this is becoming less of an issue each day.....

Gotta pay attention to the swings.....

Lastly, does anyone have any ideas about how to avoid getting your stops hit that are behind swings by bars that have large wicks but that don't close beyond the levels I've identified as S/R?


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 PandaWarrior 
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I've spent my entire trading career trying to tighten up the stop....as have most of us I think...The only way to tighten up stops is to go to a much smaller time frame and that is problematic as it can cut you up or you can take much deeper pull backs.

Here's what I mean....Assume you are entering a long trend on a pull back....however you define that, and you get in and for me, I have traded with the assumption that the bottom of that pull back is the NEW swing or higher low.....and I have put my stop a few ticks below that level. This works enough that it reinforces the idea that its the correct thing to do.....however, that is NOT the new higher low UNTIL a new higher high is put in and then its only broken to the down side IF a bar CLOSES below it....this makes break out trades that much clearer....the swing is established.....and you know where the stop goes....

In fact, the correct swing is in fact the most recent one actually established....NOT the one I thought was just created....its still not real yet.....it must be validated by a new higher high......

So this creates a problem....the risk just got bigger for trend continuation trades but in truth a whole lot safer....why? Because now the stop is in the correct location and the trade can breath as it were and those long wicks that penetrate the level I THOUGHT was the new swing wont get me.....

Now this is particularly true if holding for larger moves.....for scalping or perhaps a better word is swing scalping, taking ticks out of each swing and waiting for a new one, this may not be as important but for sure it applies on the larger trade attempts.....

It also demands two more things....1. Proper sizing for the risk....dont screw this up. 2. It also demands I look for trades in locations I would otherwise have placed a stop....in other words, as close to the deepest pull back as possible......and do so without confirmation.....this just got a lot more uncomfortable....I like confirmation and I'm not even Catholic!

This also opened up two possibilities about taking profit....scalping now becomes a legit endeavor....I know why and where to take profit....the swings themselves are good exits locations at or near the highs of the swings....and it also says that if I feel like the trade is worth holding, I know where to put the stops and to walk away....

Chart attached for a visual.....


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 Anagami 
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I've spent my entire trading career trying to tighten up the stop....as have most of us I think...The only way to tighten up stops is to go to a much smaller time frame and that is problematic as it can cut you up or you can take much deeper pull backs.

Here's what I mean....Assume you are entering a long trend on a pull back....however you define that, and you get in and for me, I have traded with the assumption that the bottom of that pull back is the NEW swing or higher low.....and I have put my stop a few ticks below that level. This works enough that it reinforces the idea that its the correct thing to do.....however, that is NOT the new higher low UNTIL a new higher high is put in and then its only broken to the down side IF a bar CLOSES below it....this makes break out trades that much clearer....the swing is established.....and you know where the stop goes....

In fact, the correct swing is in fact the most recent one actually established....NOT the one I thought was just created....its still not real yet.....it must be validated by a new higher high......

So this creates a problem....the risk just got bigger for trend continuation trades but in truth a whole lot safer....why? Because now the stop is in the correct location and the trade can breath as it were and those long wicks that penetrate the level I THOUGHT was the new swing wont get me.....

Now this is particularly true if holding for larger moves.....for scalping or perhaps a better word is swing scalping, taking ticks out of each swing and waiting for a new one, this may not be as important but for sure it applies on the larger trade attempts.....

It also demands two more things....1. Proper sizing for the risk....dont screw this up. 2. It also demands I look for trades in locations I would otherwise have placed a stop....in other words, as close to the deepest pull back as possible......and do so without confirmation.....this just got a lot more uncomfortable....I like confirmation and I'm not even Catholic!

This also opened up two possibilities about taking profit....scalping now becomes a legit endeavor....I know why and where to take profit....the swings themselves are good exits locations at or near the highs of the swings....and it also says that if I feel like the trade is worth holding, I know where to put the stops and to walk away....

Chart attached for a visual.....


Great post!

It all depends on what you're going for. You can use a tighter stop if you're going for a scalp... or a larger stop if you're going for a swing. In either case, you must make sure that math is on your side.

Alternatively, you could look into trading double tops/bottoms. That way you can put in a tight stop without waiting for a HH (or a LL). But that has its own can of worms.

Maybe the most important thing is clearly defining your ONE trading philosophy / plan, and then executing accordingly.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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 PandaWarrior 
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 VinceVirgil 
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I've spent my entire trading career trying to tighten up the stop....as have most of us I think...The only way to tighten up stops is to go to a much smaller time frame and that is problematic as it can cut you up or you can take much deeper pull backs.

Here's what I mean....Assume you are entering a long trend on a pull back....however you define that, and you get in and for me, I have traded with the assumption that the bottom of that pull back is the NEW swing or higher low.....and I have put my stop a few ticks below that level. This works enough that it reinforces the idea that its the correct thing to do.....however, that is NOT the new higher low UNTIL a new higher high is put in and then its only broken to the down side IF a bar CLOSES below it....this makes break out trades that much clearer....the swing is established.....and you know where the stop goes....

In fact, the correct swing is in fact the most recent one actually established....NOT the one I thought was just created....its still not real yet.....it must be validated by a new higher high......

So this creates a problem....the risk just got bigger for trend continuation trades but in truth a whole lot safer....why? Because now the stop is in the correct location and the trade can breath as it were and those long wicks that penetrate the level I THOUGHT was the new swing wont get me.....

Now this is particularly true if holding for larger moves.....for scalping or perhaps a better word is swing scalping, taking ticks out of each swing and waiting for a new one, this may not be as important but for sure it applies on the larger trade attempts.....

It also demands two more things....1. Proper sizing for the risk....dont screw this up. 2. It also demands I look for trades in locations I would otherwise have placed a stop....in other words, as close to the deepest pull back as possible......and do so without confirmation.....this just got a lot more uncomfortable....I like confirmation and I'm not even Catholic!

This also opened up two possibilities about taking profit....scalping now becomes a legit endeavor....I know why and where to take profit....the swings themselves are good exits locations at or near the highs of the swings....and it also says that if I feel like the trade is worth holding, I know where to put the stops and to walk away....

Chart attached for a visual.....


That first trade is really as good as it gets for entry. Seems to me, that it is a definate departure from what you previously have done. I try to see it as if it is the swing low for RTH today, and its the right move, then my R/R has to be such that if my wins vs loss are 50/50, I will be profitable. 103.80 I had as an important price yesterday afternoon. And the way price was reacting overnight, it seemed like a number that would hold, considering it was a developing DB. Having an entry with the SL below that level seems right.

Nicely done there.

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 Anagami 
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 VinceVirgil 
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Thats really very good... thats how I see it as well. I get exactly what you are talking about.

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 PandaWarrior 
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 Anagami 
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Actually, if you look carefully, it did make a HH (not very significant, but I pay close attention to detail).

I would not recommend taking breakout bars as the best strategy as most breakouts fail (as tempting as they are ).

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Actually, if you look carefully, it did make a HH (not very significant, but I pay close attention to detail).

I would not recommend taking breakout bars as the best strategy as most breakouts fail (as tempting as they are ).

I'll give you that........but it didn't break the previous support now resistance line either.....coin flip perhaps

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 Anagami 
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I'll give you that........but it didn't break the previous support now resistance line either.....coin flip perhaps

The problem with that trade (real time, not hindsight) is that CL is in range and you are taking a trade in the middle. And that's a contextual trading mistake (regardless of outcome bias).

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The problem with that trade (real time, not hindsight) is that CL is in range and you are taking a trade in the middle. And that's a contextual trading mistake (regardless of outcome bias).

I should add that I don't mean this as a critique of you or your trading. Just saying.

I enjoy your posts and journal.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I should add that I don't mean this as a critique of you or your trading. Just saying.

I enjoy your posts and journal.

no offense taken...I was offended by my trading today

by the way, thanks for the link to the futures mag article...

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 PandaWarrior 
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Scalping with perfect execution and I mean perfect, would have meant around 100-120 ticks using a 20 tick target....some trades had some heat but not to much.....is perfection possible...no but one can try....


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 Rad4633 
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Scalping with perfect execution and I mean perfect, would have meant around 100-120 ticks using a 20 tick target....some trades had some heat but not to much.....is perfection possible...no but one can try....

Panda, what is the name of the fib line indicator u use? I would like to try it out, also I havent messed with Gomi Mp alot bc its so hard to set up. Can you share your setting for it?

Many Thx
R

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 PandaWarrior 
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Panda, what is the name of the fib line indicator u use? I would like to try it out, also I havent messed with Gomi Mp alot bc its so hard to set up. Can you share your setting for it?

Many Thx
R

Here you go....download for the indie and a screen shots of my gomi settings. The gomi has a lot of settings so it took two shots...I have no idea if its set up right...I dont trade with it...I just like the colors....that chart is my holy grail chart....I change things on it and avoid changing things on my trading chart.....




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 Rad4633 
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Panda thx for sharing, here is my 15min chart Ive used for a long time with bollingers, I also use a 30min with IB mp indi, Im goin test gomi thx to u now...

Today wasnt my day either picked up a few points ES but made the wrong call on the up push, had targets just missed move then I just watched all day. It happens but biggest thing is finishing +...

ttys R

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 PandaWarrior 
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Panda thx for sharing, here is my 15min chart Ive used for a long time with bollingers, I also use a 30min with IB mp indi, Im goin test gomi thx to u now...

Today wasnt my day either picked up a few points ES but made the wrong call on the up push, had targets just missed move then I just watched all day. It happens but biggest thing is finishing +...

ttys R


Nice chart, what do you use to get the candles to print like that...I can't get the wicks to change color with the candle....

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Nice chart, what do you use to get the candles to print like that...I can't get the wicks to change color with the candle....


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 tderrick 
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Panda, what is the name of the fib line indicator u use? I would like to try it out, also I havent messed with Gomi Mp alot bc its so hard to set up. Can you share your setting for it?

Many Thx
R



PW... I don't see any MP on your chart. Am I missing something?

I tried to load MP in a while back and I got some type of failure prompt. I don't have the patience to
debug such things. If it loads, it was meant to be. Something about a duplicate name or missing component file.
Maybe I need to load in a previous incarnation first

I really like seeing the volume hashes on each bar, however. That could really be useful.

I tried to load this - GomMP4.3

Can you send me in the right direction ?


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 PandaWarrior 
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PW... I don't see any MP on your chart. Am I missing something?

I tried to load MP in a while back and I got some type of failure prompt. I don't have the patience to
debug such things. If it loads, it was meant to be. Something about a duplicate name or missing component file.
Maybe I need to load in a previous incarnation first

I really like seeing the volume hashes on each bar, however. That could really be useful.

I tried to load this - GomMP4.3

Can you send me in the right direction ?

AJ, i went to the MP thread and downloaded the indie, installed it per the video and loaded it on the chart...it worked the first time....if it had not, I would have dumped it. The last time i tried it I got the same results as you did....but the new one is far less buggy I understand and so I tried it....I did nothing special in terms of setting up special folders or anything like that.....it SEEMS to work, but since I am a novice at it and to be fair only have it on my 30M chart which I look at once or twice a day, I am Not the person to talk to about it.... @bobarian may be of better help than I.....

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 Rad4633 
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Panda, the dynpivot indi u sent me, what name does it have in your drop down indicator list. I have so many I couldnt recognize the one you sent because the name of the download didnt match any name in drop down

Thx R

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  #771 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Rad4633 View Post
Panda, the dynpivot indi u sent me, what name does it have in your drop down indicator list. I have so many I couldnt recognize the one you sent because the name of the download didnt match any name in drop down

Thx R


MyDynamicPivots

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #772 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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First trading day trading purposefully based on what I discussed yesterday...Harder to do than to say...but I did some seriously out of character stuff today...like lifting the offer at support without waiting for confirmation....scary but no heat...thats nice....

Made some mistakes today...mostly due to lack of conviction due to inexperience with putting stops in the actual correct location...it wasnt that I couldnt see where to put them, its just thats much further away than I am used to....sp rather than simply setting out while I develop some conviction, I flip flopped the trade....this always results in unneeded losses.....

But the losers helped me develop conviction because I saw how it actually worked in the live market....difficult but correct. This conviction will increase with time.

Yesterday, I realized I was the personification of insanity....today and forward I am determined to develop sanity in an insane business.....

There was a lot of ticks to be had today....I got like 13 which is fine but I should have had much more.....I took off before the rally as i was tired and had some errands to run but there were plenty of places to get long....

Today's chart is a mess but I am seriously considering going extreme minimalist....I have included two charts besides the marked up one. The current one in the middle and the proposed on on the bottom....IF all you need is S/R and a way to enter, then what good is all the rest? The only indicator on the second chart is the opening range indicator which provides a very general bullish/bearish bias....I've found this is often a good measure of general price movement....




Current chart

Proposed chart

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #773 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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An excellent example of doing things right and still being wrong.... I got the direction dead on, got entries close to perfect...although I had many opportunities to get them dead on perfect but the major failure was the constant premature exit, hereafter known as the PE.....my trades with a 20 tick target would have produced +/- 100 ticks today....however, I couldn't hold them long enough...I know one reason is that i am buying and selling in a fashion that is way out of character for me given my history with indicators and confirmation requirements. It creates a feeling of total uncertainty and yet when I have taken the confirmation bar trade, I've kicked myself for needing it....especially knowing I had an opportunity to do it right earlier....so i start panicking over the stop, I know its in the right place but much further than it needed to be from my entry price.....there were several times today when I looked at the open trade and realized if i had taken the trade at the level, I would be at or near a nice target zone, instead i was pleading for price to get some momentum and break out of the resistance levels....

I'm convinced I am on the correct path....watching HH/HL and closes of bars beyond S/R......tomorrow I will walk the same path and struggle to hold the trades longer.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #774 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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Do you think you'd have more fun trading (and increase your profitability over a long haul), if you concentrated on taking only the best 2-3 setups a day and ignoring the rest?

Just a thought.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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 PandaWarrior 
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Anagami View Post
Do you think you'd have more fun trading (and increase your profitability over a long haul), if you concentrated on taking only the best 2-3 setups a day and ignoring the rest?

Just a thought.


Of course, but what determines the BEST 2-3 set ups a day? For me currently, I feel an obligation to take them all because who knows which one is the best one....perhaps I will know one day which one is the best one but at this point in time, I do not...and I suspect no one really does....

That being said, I do have an understanding about what defines a good set up for me.....deep pull backs that have not disturbed the integrity of the current market structure. What I am struggling with at the moment is the the fact that it can pull back a lot and that pull back can look like a new trend when in facts its not....and to take the trade at that level with full confidence that I am doing the right thing in the context of what I define as market structure.

My first three trades were manifestatins of that. New highs, followed by a deep pull back, support and then long....that level was broken, followed by a deep pull back, then short. That then failed and price broke to the upside and I took the break out on momentum.....next trade was a mistake and I cant really remember why I took it....something about fear or greed if i remember correctly.....

Next set of trade sequences were simply a deep pull back after the impulse move to the upside and I simply could not hold them....

So did any of these qualify as the best 2-3 of the day....Yes of course in hindsight they did....#5 or #6 should have been held all day......or number 7 or number 9...number 8 was a deep pull back on the move down worth a shot.....after that, all longs....which were really just part of the original one from down below.....

Over all, I got 43 ticks...It should have been 100.....i need to get over instant gratification......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #776 (permalink)
 Deucalion 
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PandaWarrior View Post
................what determines the BEST 2-3 set ups a day?............and I suspect no one really does....I need to get over instant gratification......

We only accept new ideas when we are well and truly open to them. It all starts with asking uncomfortable questions.



"The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true. We have a method, and that method helps us to reach not absolute truth, only asymptotic approaches to the truth — never there, just closer and closer, always finding vast new oceans of undiscovered possibilities. Cleverly designed experiments are the key" - C Sagan

 
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  #777 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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Of course, but what determines the BEST 2-3 set ups a day? For me currently, I feel an obligation to take them all because who knows which one is the best one....perhaps I will know one day which one is the best one but at this point in time, I do not...and I suspect no one really does....

That being said, I do have an understanding about what defines a good set up for me.....deep pull backs that have not disturbed the integrity of the current market structure. What I am struggling with at the moment is the the fact that it can pull back a lot and that pull back can look like a new trend when in facts its not....and to take the trade at that level with full confidence that I am doing the right thing in the context of what I define as market structure.

My first three trades were manifestatins of that. New highs, followed by a deep pull back, support and then long....that level was broken, followed by a deep pull back, then short. That then failed and price broke to the upside and I took the break out on momentum.....next trade was a mistake and I cant really remember why I took it....something about fear or greed if i remember correctly.....

Next set of trade sequences were simply a deep pull back after the impulse move to the upside and I simply could not hold them....

So did any of these qualify as the best 2-3 of the day....Yes of course in hindsight they did....#5 or #6 should have been held all day......or number 7 or number 9...number 8 was a deep pull back on the move down worth a shot.....after that, all longs....which were really just part of the original one from down below.....

Over all, I got 43 ticks...It should have been 100.....i need to get over instant gratification......

Keep in mind that whatever I say below is just my own subjective view based on what has worked "only" for me, so take it with a grain of salt. For every view, there's an opposite one (and it may be valid for somebody else for all I know).

Your trading seems quite haphazard. Instead of clear setup criteria, you seem to pull the trigger according to your feelings. That's great... if one has been trading for a long time and the feelings are well informed through 1000s of hours of screen time. But that's not the case for those of us who have been trading less than 10 years. It makes your trading more difficult, and consequently you stress out way more... which means your decisions suffer too...etc.

The best setups are not those that end well (avoid the outcome bias), but those that meet your entry criteria (assuming these are defined) in the clearest way (typically, when you're not sure, it tells you that the setup is far from clear). As you point out, you have an 'understanding' of your setups, but that does not prevent you from taking purely gambling trades based on fear and greed. Given that edges in the markets are small, can you afford those?

The only reason I write this is because I see myself in your trading patterns in the past. I did not become consistently profitable until I created a crystal clear image of what the hell I was doing in the markets (clear setup outline and then a well-defined exit strategy), and then committed to executing my plan without live conflicts or hindsight regret.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #778 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Deucalion View Post
We only accept new ideas when we are well and truly open to them. It all starts with asking uncomfortable questions.


Here is a list of uncomfortable questions I have been asking myself lately....some of the answers are now obvious...others much less so....

1. Why keep doing the same things over and over again when they dont seem to be working as consistently as I think they should?
2. What about the indicators I've used over time makes me think they will work tomorrow? If they don't work, why have them.
3. Why are my stops so large?
4. How can I trade in a place where my stops should go....in other words, enter where in the past I would have put my stops which then places my stop well out of the way of market structure.
5. Why is this so hard to do?
6. Why am I having such a hard time holding trades long enough? Especially when they are green? I'm not really getting cut up in the chop anymore....I recognize there is no sideways....just up or down and sometimes its up or down with no momentum......AKA...chop....I am holding through it most of the time and just when the trade really gets going, I panic and take money off the table. Why?
7. Do I have confidence in myself? Somedays yes and others no.....a very narrow razors edge this confidence thing. Maybe this has to do with success....or
8. Why do I read other peoples journal? To be fair, this was helpful in the beginning....MUCH less so now. I've narrowed it down considerably...only two or three now...mostly friends to see how they did that day....
9. Sometimes it feels like I'm missing the obvious...am I? This makes me understand why people pay so much money to a guru to reveal the missing pieces....but I recognize this is futile. The answers appear when I am ready for them.....am I ready.....today I think yes....
10. Am I prepared to do the uncomfortable to achieve the difficult? Up to this point, the answer was no...I preferred comfort. That's deadly in this game.....I remember my original mentor telling me to take the deep pull backs...he used a moving average to determine this and to take it without confirmation. It felt like stepping in front of a freight train.....two years later, I'm finally doing that very same thing albeit without the moving average and with a very large helping of fear.....but those trades have almost no heat...

These are some of the things I have thought about over the last few weeks and months...mostly the last few weeks.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #779 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Here is a list of uncomfortable questions I have been asking myself lately....some of the answers are now obvious...others much less so....

1. Why keep doing the same things over and over again when they dont seem to be working as consistently as I think they should?
2. What about the indicators I've used over time makes me think they will work tomorrow? If they don't work, why have them.
3. Why are my stops so large?
4. How can I trade in a place where my stops should go....in other words, enter where in the past I would have put my stops which then places my stop well out of the way of market structure.
5. Why is this so hard to do?
6. Why am I having such a hard time holding trades long enough? Especially when they are green? I'm not really getting cut up in the chop anymore....I recognize there is no sideways....just up or down and sometimes its up or down with no momentum......AKA...chop....I am holding through it most of the time and just when the trade really gets going, I panic and take money off the table. Why?
7. Do I have confidence in myself? Somedays yes and others no.....a very narrow razors edge this confidence thing. Maybe this has to do with success....or
8. Why do I read other peoples journal? To be fair, this was helpful in the beginning....MUCH less so now. I've narrowed it down considerably...only two or three now...mostly friends to see how they did that day....
9. Sometimes it feels like I'm missing the obvious...am I? This makes me understand why people pay so much money to a guru to reveal the missing pieces....but I recognize this is futile. The answers appear when I am ready for them.....am I ready.....today I think yes....
10. Am I prepared to do the uncomfortable to achieve the difficult? Up to this point, the answer was no...I preferred comfort. That's deadly in this game.....I remember my original mentor telling me to take the deep pull backs...he used a moving average to determine this and to take it without confirmation. It felt like stepping in front of a freight train.....two years later, I'm finally doing that very same thing albeit without the moving average and with a very large helping of fear.....but those trades have almost no heat...

These are some of the things I have thought about over the last few weeks and months...mostly the last few weeks.....

This sort of soul searching is exactly the reason why you run the most interesting trading blog on futures.io (formerly BMT).

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #780 (permalink)
 Deucalion 
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Lest I give the impression that I know "more" than the next guy and am a smart ass prick that likes speaking in riddles....

I probably know less than the average hot shot in this forum. However -
  1. It interests me to think where (if I was in a trade) would I be sweating bullets.
  2. Where did the price come from - and if it were to continue in that contextual direction, what would the pattern likely look like?
  3. If it reversed, what would that look like?

I often get carried away into thinking if I did stuff that others were doing, it would make me better. But of course, you know that is a pretty good recipe for trouble

 
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  #781 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Anagami View Post
Keep in mind that whatever I say below is just my own subjective view based on what has worked "only" for me, so take it with a grain of salt. For every view, there's an opposite one (and it may be valid for somebody else for all I know).

Your trading seems quite haphazard. Instead of clear setup criteria, you seem to pull the trigger according to your feelings. That's great... if one has been trading for a long time and the feelings are well informed through 1000s of hours of screen time. But that's not the case for those of us who have been trading less than 10 years. It makes your trading more difficult, and consequently you stress out way more... which means your decisions suffer too...etc.

The best setups are not those that end well (avoid the outcome bias), but those that meet your entry criteria (assuming these are defined) in the clearest way (typically, when you're not sure, it tells you that the setup is far from clear). As you point out, you have an 'understanding' of your setups, but that does not prevent you from taking purely gambling trades based on fear and greed. Given that edges in the markets are small, can you afford those?

The only reason I write this is because I see myself in your trading patterns in the past. I did not become consistently profitable until I created a crystal clear image of what the hell I was doing in the markets (clear setup outline and then a well-defined exit strategy), and then committed to executing my plan without live conflicts or hindsight regret.

What is haphazard is the exit. I have 4 defined set ups I can use...only one is a break out and I used that today early on. The others revolve around pull backs of some kind. Lately, CL has liked the deep pull backs so been looking for those. Outcome bias is slowly drifting away from my thinking and instead is being replaced with the need to totally lock into the idea that price must show itself behaving in a manner consistent with what I expect to see around certain levels. Don't trade until that happens.

The haphazard exits is born of a lack of confidence in my ability to see where I should get out. Or a defined mathematical method of exiting a trade based on time, distance or measured moves. I think if I had a defined exit strategy, this holding thing would diminish in importance....

Currently I am working on an exit strategy...well two to be fair...one a straight scalping exit and the other a more dynamic one based on levels and possible fib numbers... I have used both and both have merit. Just need to decide.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #782 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Deucalion View Post
Lest I give the impression that I know "more" than the next guy and am a smart ass prick that likes speaking in riddles....

I probably know less than the average hot shot in this forum. However -
  1. It interests me to think where (if I was in a trade) would I be sweating bullets.
  2. Where did the price come from - and if it were to continue in that contextual direction, what would the pattern likely look like?
  3. If it reversed, what would that look like?

I often get carried away into thinking if I did stuff that others were doing, it would make me better. But of course, you know that is a pretty good recipe for trouble

Today I thought about trapped traders....and I confess I tried to trap some of them and ended up trapped myself. The short at the top of the range I figured people would be going short right there and keep the stops tight. I wanted a pause at that level, a flash of price above the level and a continuation halfway down the previous leg before continuing on to the HOD.....but that didn't happen. Instead it paused and went down with no cash dash above the level....when it did get there, it turned into a trend continuation break out level and I recognized it as such and was able to reverse. This same thing happened earlier before the break up this morning....

I also thought about pattern projection...how many bars would it take to get to the levels? What levels would need to be honored for that to pattern to hold, what would I do if/when...etc....does this mean I am thinking more like a trader? Not sure but in two solid years of trading, those thoughts have never entered my mind...so something has shifted.....so far it feels hopeful.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #783 (permalink)
iPlayGames
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hello Panda, regarding your large Stoploss size on 5 minute CL chart, have you noticed that the majority of the good trades has a MAE of around 10 ticks? that is, if your timing was right, the trade usually takes off with a maximum 10 or 11 ticks retracement after entry.

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  #784 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Narrative later. I have to run...


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #785 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I have to leave the office in about three minutes.....so no narrative today...Suffice to say I saw resistance on the 30M chart and shorted the breakdown...should have taken it right at resistance but oh well....



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #786 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have to leave the office in about three minutes.....so no narrative today...Suffice to say I saw resistance on the 30M chart and shorted the breakdown...should have taken it right at resistance but oh well....



Nice job spotting that short early, and being very fast on the trigger. It didnt give you much time, so you had to have the mind set that you were prepared for it. No guarantees of course, but you had to be prepared to take the loss, if it reversed.

Fine work there.

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  #787 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have to leave the office in about three minutes.....so no narrative today...Suffice to say I saw resistance on the 30M chart and shorted the breakdown...should have taken it right at resistance but oh well....



Perfect !!!


AJ
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  #788 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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+50 for the day.....



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #789 (permalink)
 Anagami 
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PandaWarrior View Post
+50 for the day.....



Like the 2nd trade especially. 2-legged pullback in a strong trend.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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  #790 (permalink)
 trs3042 
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PandaWarrior View Post
+50 for the day.....



Hello @PandaWarrior

Nice work. Great way to end your week. Have a GREAT weekend!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #791 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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Did you try any "wicky" limit orders ?


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
Did you try any "wicky" limit orders ?

Yes, at the bottom...I pulled an AJ....faded the move, went 40+ticks my way, but I was holding for a much larger move, basically a large pullback on the sell off....so that trade ended up a small loser....this trade was right before I walked out the door this morning and after I had posted my chart so it didn't get posted. I also took a break out and nailed a 75 tick winner...so ended up +100 for the day.....

I got to the market to late to get the wicky thing early although there was a perfect one just a few minutes prior to the market.

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 researcher247 
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Hola,

Can you guys explain the ticky limit order?

peace

Hedvig

 
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  #794 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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researcher247 View Post
Hola,

Can you guys explain the ticky limit order?

peace

Hedvig

If I may, PW

Looking for exhaustion bars on the 5min chart that leave sizable wicks. Limit order placed close to the tip
of the wick looking for a re-test and bounce in opposite direction .

In one nutshell

I give Panda back his thread


AJ
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  #795 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Yes, at the bottom...I pulled an AJ....faded the move, went 40+ticks my way, but I was holding for a much larger move, basically a large pullback on the sell off....so that trade ended up a small loser....this trade was right before I walked out the door this morning and after I had posted my chart so it didn't get posted. I also took a break out and nailed a 75 tick winner...so ended up +100 for the day.....

I got to the market to late to get the wicky thing early although there was a perfect one just a few minutes prior to the market.

Sounds great...you have a chart?

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Sounds great...you have a chart?


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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basically a break even day...


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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I was at Barnes and Noble today looking for a book and I saw a book called https://www.amazon.com/Insanely-Simple-Obsession-Drives-Success/dp/1591844835/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1336440580&sr=8-1 and the basic thought was how Apple thought about complexity. I opened the book, took a few things from the jacket and thought it would apply to trading.

Here they are:

Think Minimal: 1. Chart set up 2. Number of set ups 3. Complexity of setups and information required to execute

Think Small: Risk

Think Motion: Go with the flow. Don't fight the trend.

Think Iconic: Pictures are worth a 1000 words.

Think War: Unfair competitive advantage.

The whole idea is to strip away everything that's not needed and nothing that is needed to execute a trade.

KISS

Based on this, the previous chart I posted is to complicated...it starts simple and gets progressively more complex as the day goes on thereby creating confusion. From now on, I will no longer leave all the markings on. As the levels compound themselves, I have a tendency to ascribe equal importance to ALL the levels which gives me pause about trading into those levels......I need to recognize that some are more important than others and to take the minor ones off.....leave the major levels on until they're not relevant any longer.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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bwasi
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Quote: "The whole idea is to strip away everything that's not needed and nothing that is needed to execute a trade

> it's interesting to note that you use near-hollow candles. In my own charts, I found that filled candles can distract my focus and I cant see the EMAs

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 PandaWarrior 
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Took a few days off from posting. Lost interest for a few days. Had a few things to work on personally and I just didnt want to post.

Back to normal.

I am toying with the idea of posting my PnL as well as my charts. Not sure I'll go that far yet....

Anyway, after a hard sell off overnight, the entire cash session was less than half the overnight range.

I used the daily range x 10% as my profit targets. Targeting 50%+ of the daily range as a measure of effciency means if the range is 100 ticks, then 50 ticks is 50% of the daily range.

Today was 125 ticks for the cash session. I did 62. That seems reasonable to me.

I made two mistakes today. One of omission and one of commission.

I passed on a great trade and took the crappy catholic trade which resulted in a missed 20 tick profit along with a 15 tick loss. A 35 tick mistake.

The other loser was one I was watching closely to set up off the higher time frame and I got distracted and missed the early entry so i took the confirmation trade, it would have been a winner had I put the stop significantly higher. I was unwilling to take that risk and so took a stop and then a winner.

Removing one of of these two mistakes puts at least another 20 ticks of profit on the table.

I am starting to prefer these kinds of days as opposed to the hard trending days.....more opportunity or so it seems.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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