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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #781 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Anagami View Post
Keep in mind that whatever I say below is just my own subjective view based on what has worked "only" for me, so take it with a grain of salt. For every view, there's an opposite one (and it may be valid for somebody else for all I know).

Your trading seems quite haphazard. Instead of clear setup criteria, you seem to pull the trigger according to your feelings. That's great... if one has been trading for a long time and the feelings are well informed through 1000s of hours of screen time. But that's not the case for those of us who have been trading less than 10 years. It makes your trading more difficult, and consequently you stress out way more... which means your decisions suffer too...etc.

The best setups are not those that end well (avoid the outcome bias), but those that meet your entry criteria (assuming these are defined) in the clearest way (typically, when you're not sure, it tells you that the setup is far from clear). As you point out, you have an 'understanding' of your setups, but that does not prevent you from taking purely gambling trades based on fear and greed. Given that edges in the markets are small, can you afford those?

The only reason I write this is because I see myself in your trading patterns in the past. I did not become consistently profitable until I created a crystal clear image of what the hell I was doing in the markets (clear setup outline and then a well-defined exit strategy), and then committed to executing my plan without live conflicts or hindsight regret.

What is haphazard is the exit. I have 4 defined set ups I can use...only one is a break out and I used that today early on. The others revolve around pull backs of some kind. Lately, CL has liked the deep pull backs so been looking for those. Outcome bias is slowly drifting away from my thinking and instead is being replaced with the need to totally lock into the idea that price must show itself behaving in a manner consistent with what I expect to see around certain levels. Don't trade until that happens.

The haphazard exits is born of a lack of confidence in my ability to see where I should get out. Or a defined mathematical method of exiting a trade based on time, distance or measured moves. I think if I had a defined exit strategy, this holding thing would diminish in importance....

Currently I am working on an exit strategy...well two to be fair...one a straight scalping exit and the other a more dynamic one based on levels and possible fib numbers... I have used both and both have merit. Just need to decide.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #782 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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Deucalion View Post
Lest I give the impression that I know "more" than the next guy and am a smart ass prick that likes speaking in riddles....

I probably know less than the average hot shot in this forum. However -
  1. It interests me to think where (if I was in a trade) would I be sweating bullets.
  2. Where did the price come from - and if it were to continue in that contextual direction, what would the pattern likely look like?
  3. If it reversed, what would that look like?

I often get carried away into thinking if I did stuff that others were doing, it would make me better. But of course, you know that is a pretty good recipe for trouble

Today I thought about trapped traders....and I confess I tried to trap some of them and ended up trapped myself. The short at the top of the range I figured people would be going short right there and keep the stops tight. I wanted a pause at that level, a flash of price above the level and a continuation halfway down the previous leg before continuing on to the HOD.....but that didn't happen. Instead it paused and went down with no cash dash above the level....when it did get there, it turned into a trend continuation break out level and I recognized it as such and was able to reverse. This same thing happened earlier before the break up this morning....

I also thought about pattern projection...how many bars would it take to get to the levels? What levels would need to be honored for that to pattern to hold, what would I do if/when...etc....does this mean I am thinking more like a trader? Not sure but in two solid years of trading, those thoughts have never entered my mind...so something has shifted.....so far it feels hopeful.....

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #783 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Tokyo Japan
 
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hello Panda, regarding your large Stoploss size on 5 minute CL chart, have you noticed that the majority of the good trades has a MAE of around 10 ticks? that is, if your timing was right, the trade usually takes off with a maximum 10 or 11 ticks retracement after entry.

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  #784 (permalink)
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Narrative later. I have to run...

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #785 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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I have to leave the office in about three minutes.....so no narrative today...Suffice to say I saw resistance on the 30M chart and shorted the breakdown...should have taken it right at resistance but oh well....


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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #786 (permalink)
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Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have to leave the office in about three minutes.....so no narrative today...Suffice to say I saw resistance on the 30M chart and shorted the breakdown...should have taken it right at resistance but oh well....


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Nice job spotting that short early, and being very fast on the trigger. It didnt give you much time, so you had to have the mind set that you were prepared for it. No guarantees of course, but you had to be prepared to take the loss, if it reversed.

Fine work there.


Last edited by VinceVirgil; May 3rd, 2012 at 03:44 PM.
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  #787 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have to leave the office in about three minutes.....so no narrative today...Suffice to say I saw resistance on the 30M chart and shorted the breakdown...should have taken it right at resistance but oh well....


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Perfect !!!


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #788 (permalink)
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+50 for the day.....


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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #789 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
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PandaWarrior View Post
+50 for the day.....


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Like the 2nd trade especially. 2-legged pullback in a strong trend.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #790 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
+50 for the day.....


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Hello @PandaWarrior

Nice work. Great way to end your week. Have a GREAT weekend!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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