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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #771 (permalink)
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Rad4633 View Post
Panda, the dynpivot indi u sent me, what name does it have in your drop down indicator list. I have so many I couldnt recognize the one you sent because the name of the download didnt match any name in drop down

Thx R


MyDynamicPivots

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #772 (permalink)
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First trading day trading purposefully based on what I discussed yesterday...Harder to do than to say...but I did some seriously out of character stuff today...like lifting the offer at support without waiting for confirmation....scary but no heat...thats nice....

Made some mistakes today...mostly due to lack of conviction due to inexperience with putting stops in the actual correct location...it wasnt that I couldnt see where to put them, its just thats much further away than I am used to....sp rather than simply setting out while I develop some conviction, I flip flopped the trade....this always results in unneeded losses.....

But the losers helped me develop conviction because I saw how it actually worked in the live market....difficult but correct. This conviction will increase with time.

Yesterday, I realized I was the personification of insanity....today and forward I am determined to develop sanity in an insane business.....

There was a lot of ticks to be had today....I got like 13 which is fine but I should have had much more.....I took off before the rally as i was tired and had some errands to run but there were plenty of places to get long....

Today's chart is a mess but I am seriously considering going extreme minimalist....I have included two charts besides the marked up one. The current one in the middle and the proposed on on the bottom....IF all you need is S/R and a way to enter, then what good is all the rest? The only indicator on the second chart is the opening range indicator which provides a very general bullish/bearish bias....I've found this is often a good measure of general price movement....


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Proposed chart
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; April 27th, 2012 at 06:38 PM.
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  #773 (permalink)
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An excellent example of doing things right and still being wrong.... I got the direction dead on, got entries close to perfect...although I had many opportunities to get them dead on perfect but the major failure was the constant premature exit, hereafter known as the PE.....my trades with a 20 tick target would have produced +/- 100 ticks today....however, I couldn't hold them long enough...I know one reason is that i am buying and selling in a fashion that is way out of character for me given my history with indicators and confirmation requirements. It creates a feeling of total uncertainty and yet when I have taken the confirmation bar trade, I've kicked myself for needing it....especially knowing I had an opportunity to do it right earlier....so i start panicking over the stop, I know its in the right place but much further than it needed to be from my entry price.....there were several times today when I looked at the open trade and realized if i had taken the trade at the level, I would be at or near a nice target zone, instead i was pleading for price to get some momentum and break out of the resistance levels....

I'm convinced I am on the correct path....watching HH/HL and closes of bars beyond S/R......tomorrow I will walk the same path and struggle to hold the trades longer.....

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #774 (permalink)
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Do you think you'd have more fun trading (and increase your profitability over a long haul), if you concentrated on taking only the best 2-3 setups a day and ignoring the rest?

Just a thought.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #775 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
Do you think you'd have more fun trading (and increase your profitability over a long haul), if you concentrated on taking only the best 2-3 setups a day and ignoring the rest?

Just a thought.


Of course, but what determines the BEST 2-3 set ups a day? For me currently, I feel an obligation to take them all because who knows which one is the best one....perhaps I will know one day which one is the best one but at this point in time, I do not...and I suspect no one really does....

That being said, I do have an understanding about what defines a good set up for me.....deep pull backs that have not disturbed the integrity of the current market structure. What I am struggling with at the moment is the the fact that it can pull back a lot and that pull back can look like a new trend when in facts its not....and to take the trade at that level with full confidence that I am doing the right thing in the context of what I define as market structure.

My first three trades were manifestatins of that. New highs, followed by a deep pull back, support and then long....that level was broken, followed by a deep pull back, then short. That then failed and price broke to the upside and I took the break out on momentum.....next trade was a mistake and I cant really remember why I took it....something about fear or greed if i remember correctly.....

Next set of trade sequences were simply a deep pull back after the impulse move to the upside and I simply could not hold them....

So did any of these qualify as the best 2-3 of the day....Yes of course in hindsight they did....#5 or #6 should have been held all day......or number 7 or number 9...number 8 was a deep pull back on the move down worth a shot.....after that, all longs....which were really just part of the original one from down below.....

Over all, I got 43 ticks...It should have been 100.....i need to get over instant gratification......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #776 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
................what determines the BEST 2-3 set ups a day?............and I suspect no one really does....I need to get over instant gratification......

We only accept new ideas when we are well and truly open to them. It all starts with asking uncomfortable questions.

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"The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true. We have a method, and that method helps us to reach not absolute truth, only asymptotic approaches to the truth — never there, just closer and closer, always finding vast new oceans of undiscovered possibilities. Cleverly designed experiments are the key" - C Sagan

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  #777 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Of course, but what determines the BEST 2-3 set ups a day? For me currently, I feel an obligation to take them all because who knows which one is the best one....perhaps I will know one day which one is the best one but at this point in time, I do not...and I suspect no one really does....

That being said, I do have an understanding about what defines a good set up for me.....deep pull backs that have not disturbed the integrity of the current market structure. What I am struggling with at the moment is the the fact that it can pull back a lot and that pull back can look like a new trend when in facts its not....and to take the trade at that level with full confidence that I am doing the right thing in the context of what I define as market structure.

My first three trades were manifestatins of that. New highs, followed by a deep pull back, support and then long....that level was broken, followed by a deep pull back, then short. That then failed and price broke to the upside and I took the break out on momentum.....next trade was a mistake and I cant really remember why I took it....something about fear or greed if i remember correctly.....

Next set of trade sequences were simply a deep pull back after the impulse move to the upside and I simply could not hold them....

So did any of these qualify as the best 2-3 of the day....Yes of course in hindsight they did....#5 or #6 should have been held all day......or number 7 or number 9...number 8 was a deep pull back on the move down worth a shot.....after that, all longs....which were really just part of the original one from down below.....

Over all, I got 43 ticks...It should have been 100.....i need to get over instant gratification......

Keep in mind that whatever I say below is just my own subjective view based on what has worked "only" for me, so take it with a grain of salt. For every view, there's an opposite one (and it may be valid for somebody else for all I know).

Your trading seems quite haphazard. Instead of clear setup criteria, you seem to pull the trigger according to your feelings. That's great... if one has been trading for a long time and the feelings are well informed through 1000s of hours of screen time. But that's not the case for those of us who have been trading less than 10 years. It makes your trading more difficult, and consequently you stress out way more... which means your decisions suffer too...etc.

The best setups are not those that end well (avoid the outcome bias), but those that meet your entry criteria (assuming these are defined) in the clearest way (typically, when you're not sure, it tells you that the setup is far from clear). As you point out, you have an 'understanding' of your setups, but that does not prevent you from taking purely gambling trades based on fear and greed. Given that edges in the markets are small, can you afford those?

The only reason I write this is because I see myself in your trading patterns in the past. I did not become consistently profitable until I created a crystal clear image of what the hell I was doing in the markets (clear setup outline and then a well-defined exit strategy), and then committed to executing my plan without live conflicts or hindsight regret.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #778 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
We only accept new ideas when we are well and truly open to them. It all starts with asking uncomfortable questions.


Here is a list of uncomfortable questions I have been asking myself lately....some of the answers are now obvious...others much less so....

1. Why keep doing the same things over and over again when they dont seem to be working as consistently as I think they should?
2. What about the indicators I've used over time makes me think they will work tomorrow? If they don't work, why have them.
3. Why are my stops so large?
4. How can I trade in a place where my stops should go....in other words, enter where in the past I would have put my stops which then places my stop well out of the way of market structure.
5. Why is this so hard to do?
6. Why am I having such a hard time holding trades long enough? Especially when they are green? I'm not really getting cut up in the chop anymore....I recognize there is no sideways....just up or down and sometimes its up or down with no momentum......AKA...chop....I am holding through it most of the time and just when the trade really gets going, I panic and take money off the table. Why?
7. Do I have confidence in myself? Somedays yes and others no.....a very narrow razors edge this confidence thing. Maybe this has to do with success....or
8. Why do I read other peoples journal? To be fair, this was helpful in the beginning....MUCH less so now. I've narrowed it down considerably...only two or three now...mostly friends to see how they did that day....
9. Sometimes it feels like I'm missing the obvious...am I? This makes me understand why people pay so much money to a guru to reveal the missing pieces....but I recognize this is futile. The answers appear when I am ready for them.....am I ready.....today I think yes....
10. Am I prepared to do the uncomfortable to achieve the difficult? Up to this point, the answer was no...I preferred comfort. That's deadly in this game.....I remember my original mentor telling me to take the deep pull backs...he used a moving average to determine this and to take it without confirmation. It felt like stepping in front of a freight train.....two years later, I'm finally doing that very same thing albeit without the moving average and with a very large helping of fear.....but those trades have almost no heat...

These are some of the things I have thought about over the last few weeks and months...mostly the last few weeks.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #779 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
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PandaWarrior View Post
Here is a list of uncomfortable questions I have been asking myself lately....some of the answers are now obvious...others much less so....

1. Why keep doing the same things over and over again when they dont seem to be working as consistently as I think they should?
2. What about the indicators I've used over time makes me think they will work tomorrow? If they don't work, why have them.
3. Why are my stops so large?
4. How can I trade in a place where my stops should go....in other words, enter where in the past I would have put my stops which then places my stop well out of the way of market structure.
5. Why is this so hard to do?
6. Why am I having such a hard time holding trades long enough? Especially when they are green? I'm not really getting cut up in the chop anymore....I recognize there is no sideways....just up or down and sometimes its up or down with no momentum......AKA...chop....I am holding through it most of the time and just when the trade really gets going, I panic and take money off the table. Why?
7. Do I have confidence in myself? Somedays yes and others no.....a very narrow razors edge this confidence thing. Maybe this has to do with success....or
8. Why do I read other peoples journal? To be fair, this was helpful in the beginning....MUCH less so now. I've narrowed it down considerably...only two or three now...mostly friends to see how they did that day....
9. Sometimes it feels like I'm missing the obvious...am I? This makes me understand why people pay so much money to a guru to reveal the missing pieces....but I recognize this is futile. The answers appear when I am ready for them.....am I ready.....today I think yes....
10. Am I prepared to do the uncomfortable to achieve the difficult? Up to this point, the answer was no...I preferred comfort. That's deadly in this game.....I remember my original mentor telling me to take the deep pull backs...he used a moving average to determine this and to take it without confirmation. It felt like stepping in front of a freight train.....two years later, I'm finally doing that very same thing albeit without the moving average and with a very large helping of fear.....but those trades have almost no heat...

These are some of the things I have thought about over the last few weeks and months...mostly the last few weeks.....

This sort of soul searching is exactly the reason why you run the most interesting trading blog on futures.io (formerly BMT).

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #780 (permalink)
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Lest I give the impression that I know "more" than the next guy and am a smart ass prick that likes speaking in riddles....

I probably know less than the average hot shot in this forum. However -
  1. It interests me to think where (if I was in a trade) would I be sweating bullets.
  2. Where did the price come from - and if it were to continue in that contextual direction, what would the pattern likely look like?
  3. If it reversed, what would that look like?

I often get carried away into thinking if I did stuff that others were doing, it would make me better. But of course, you know that is a pretty good recipe for trouble

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