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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #721 (permalink)
Elite Member
Toronto, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Favorite Futures: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
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researcher247 View Post
Hi PW,

When I trade my 'core methods' I trade size.

I am curious how you treat Friday overall?

When I traded small size, Friday was more like a 'normal' day to me.

For a long time I have traded 'size' in the markets I trade intraday (size as it is defined to me).

My Friday is about

a) trading a bit more conservatively (I wait like a perverted stalker for a high reward:risk setup)
b) '1 & done' (1 win & done) in each market I follow (if it happens).
c) No trading 1.5 hours after any market (pit) has opened.

Just wondering how you feel about Fridays?

If price action is a bit slow for the 1st 90 minutes (conservatively speaking); would you consider trading CL up to 11:30 or 12 noon? Just wondering.

My trading partner believes Fridays should be like the corporate world. 90 minutes of 'office time' and then you are 'out of the zone.'

I like to hear from others about their Friday trading philosophy.

Mine is 'do no harm to a good week' but take a high-quality setup (1) in each market you follow. If you b.e. on your 1st trade in that market--wait for up to 1 more high-quality setup and take it and be done.

I have done this for 26 years now. If I make 1-1.5% net profit on margin for a Friday I am always pleased.

peace

Hedvig

Hello Hedvig,

I noticed you said you have been doing this, I assume trading, for 26 years now. You must have seen quite a bit over that many years.

For myself, on the brokerage side, I have witnessed many changes over the last 15 plus years, but I have only been trading futures a short time. The main difference of course, is the much higher leverage and as such, the much shorter time frames holding a particular asset.

But from the administration side, what is the biggest change you have seen and had to make because of the significant increase in derivative trading over that time period, with the explosion of electronic trading and the globalization of derivative markets?. And how have you had to change or adapt your methods to keep up with those changes?

You cannot possibly trade the same way now as 26 years ago when you first began. Or can you? my experience with derivatives is decidely short, so I am interested in your experiences. I would also like to find out where I can see your weekly recap as I am interested in learning more about your approach.

Thnaks for your post.

VinceVirgil

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  #722 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

I have got to figure out a way to make my charts less messy...I am currently marking the swings manually...I dont like the indie that does it and the S/R areas along with trend lines....Price can be obscured by all my markings...then if I put in my desired levels for targets, it seems like to much..

I made several mistakes today.

1. I did not enter on the break down area even though it did exactly what I like to see it do....missed opportunity.
2. trade 2 I entered, thought better of it, exited, reentered at a much worse price, held through several bars of heat, exited at +1 which ended up being -1 due to slippage only to see price hit my target a few bars later...the mistake in entry made me just want a graceful exit. Never mind the fact i had my stop in the correct location for both the first short and the second one....argh...
3. Trade 3, a break out trade, I usually take the break of the bar that clears the break out level....I took the first one and then waited for what seemed like forever....trailed the stop up, got hit, original stop never touched....damn....
4. Entered on the pull back levels.....took trade off 5 ticks ahead of my original target. I had the resistance area as the target.....two bars to soon.

So I made money today, but it wasn't because I traded well, its because my mistakes were not so large I couldn't over come them. To be fair, I had 75 ticks of opportunity, I got 20. Execution and patience....

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #723 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego, Miami & On the lake (Summer)
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Hello Hedvig,

I noticed you said you have been doing this, I assume trading, for 26 years now. You must have seen quite a bit over that many years.

For myself, on the brokerage side, I have witnessed many changes over the last 15 plus years, but I have only been trading futures a short time. The main difference of course, is the much higher leverage and as such, the much shorter time frames holding a particular asset.

But from the administration side, what is the biggest change you have seen and had to make because of the significant increase in derivative trading over that time period, with the explosion of electronic trading and the globalization of derivative markets?. And how have you had to change or adapt your methods to keep up with those changes?

You cannot possibly trade the same way now as 26 years ago when you first began. Or can you? my experience with derivatives is decidely short, so I am interested in your experiences. I would also like to find out where I can see your weekly recap as I am interested in learning more about your approach.

Thnaks for your post.

VinceVirgil

-----------------
I think I could write a book for this reply!

Short answer. As a beginner I used 15/30/60m/daily charts and traded a variety of markets intraday (over 5) but in a swingtrading fashion.

In the last 15 years I have used volume and price charting intraday and limit it to up to 3 different markets and never trade more than a total of 3.5 total hours intraday.

Electronic markets only made it easier to put in orders. Way back in the late 80's and up to mid 90's it was all by phone orders. Had to do a daily fax 'run' each day to my broker(s) up until late 90's. In summary, everything is easier outside of the actual trading and much cheaper.

Price action has not changed. Trading is many multiples cheaper now; that is for sure.

With a shortened workday I have more time to devote to my diversified swingtrading methods that myself and my trading partner focus on outside daytrading.

I have a thread on ET; it is by parts trading method/management & by parts my other less honorable interests.

Forums - Deep thoughts...

peace

Hedvig

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  #724 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have got to figure out a way to make my charts less messy...I am currently marking the swings manually...I dont like the indie that does it and the S/R areas along with trend lines....Price can be obscured by all my markings...then if I put in my desired levels for targets, it seems like to much..
..

click on your lines hold shift key, scroll up using middle wheel as long as number is > 1 it will fall behind the price.

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  #725 (permalink)
Elite Member
Toronto, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker/Data: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Favorite Futures: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,180 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I have got to figure out a way to make my charts less messy...I am currently marking the swings manually...I dont like the indie that does it and the S/R areas along with trend lines....Price can be obscured by all my markings...then if I put in my desired levels for targets, it seems like to much..

I made several mistakes today.

1. I did not enter on the break down area even though it did exactly what I like to see it do....missed opportunity.
2. trade 2 I entered, thought better of it, exited, reentered at a much worse price, held through several bars of heat, exited at +1 which ended up being -1 due to slippage only to see price hit my target a few bars later...the mistake in entry made me just want a graceful exit. Never mind the fact i had my stop in the correct location for both the first short and the second one....argh...
3. Trade 3, a break out trade, I usually take the break of the bar that clears the break out level....I took the first one and then waited for what seemed like forever....trailed the stop up, got hit, original stop never touched....damn....
4. Entered on the pull back levels.....took trade off 5 ticks ahead of my original target. I had the resistance area as the target.....two bars to soon.

So I made money today, but it wasn't because I traded well, its because my mistakes were not so large I couldn't over come them. To be fair, I had 75 ticks of opportunity, I got 20. Execution and patience....

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For your last trade, did you trade off support? Or did you wait for confirmation? Like a good Catholic.

I ask because that trade could have been the trade of the day, because price did run till 103. Do you think the stop out a couple bars earlier influenced your judgement on the last trade?

I only ask because I am consiously attempting to not let a previous stop out affect my decisions, or have less of and impact, on my next trade. I know it should have zero impact, but, we are all imperfect creatures, are we not?

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  #726 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


VinceVirgil View Post
For your last trade, did you trade off support? Or did you wait for confirmation? Like a good Catholic.

I ask because that trade could have been the trade of the day, because price did run till 103. Do you think the stop out a couple bars earlier influenced your judgement on the last trade?

I only ask because I am consiously attempting to not let a previous stop out affect my decisions, or have less of and impact, on my next trade. I know it should have zero impact, but, we are all imperfect creatures, are we not?

I was stopped out because I took a break out trade....a no no most of the time for me. I did put the stop in the right place and then after i got a blue candle that closed in my direction, I moved the stop up....of course it got hit, it was in the wrong place....so I took the loss and entered in spot I should have in the first place....

Yes, the stop did influence me but not as much as before...

The trade was entered on the first break of the the candle that touched support. Would I have liked to take the trade at the support line? Yes of course, however, I've always gotten run over when I do this...for some reason I've gotten 100% of the losers and virtually none of the winners.....so my trading religion is still Catholic for a while longer.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #727 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Inventory day, my least favorite day of the week... so much can go wrong on these days...and its roll over week....I watched for three hours before I did anything....must be some sort of record for me!

Anyway, I've been quantifying my entry and exit methodology a bit more these last couple of weeks. Relying more and more on swings to define market state....and I like this little indicator I picked up somewhere a few months ago that colors the bars.....odd, I am not an indicator fan but it more or less colorizes what I have been trying to do anyway.....I'll hang on and see.

Today was a one and done day.....I waited long enough, got the spike I needed and now I dont feel like sitting through the rest of the day which could be just a sideways grind.....dont know, dont care.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #728 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Market states

How do you define market states? Is there some criteria that says market is short or long and can you see it at a glance 10 feet away from your chart? Can you do it consistently in real time or is there guessing going on? Do you ever catch yourself saying things like "I can't figure out if its long or short"? If you do, determining market state remains a mystery to you......

A friend told me recently that I needed a consistent repeatable method to determine market state....so I gave it a whirl...after a few attempts, he told me I was full of BS...that I had no way to consistently determine market state.....this was after I kept telling him the market was sideways.....he told me there was no sideways...only up or down....of course I did not believe him and he told me to prove him wrong...

So I set out to locate sideways markets using a method of locating swings and determining market state from those swings.....I've looked at many many many days of charts....lo and behold, there was no sideways, only long or short....long and short can have poor momentum to be sure and feel like sideways, but there is no sideways.... crafting a response to the market state is another matter....long, short or flat are the possible responses but determining market state first is the key.....

Another thing I've found doing this is that somethings what looks like a nice long isn't....if the market is short...and that nice long can stay that way for a long time.....well past what I would have otherwise thought of as a great long entry.....not to say I can't trade those, just know they are counter trend....and to take profit quickly......

I feel like a new vista just opened up....one I hadn't known before....it also explains why some great looking set ups fail so fast.

I've also spent some time figuring out when to cut a loser short...there has to be a repeatable method to this...something that invalidates the trade long before a stop is hit...and for at least the next few weeks, I think I've discovered something while not perfect, can suffice......more as I test it.

Wondering if I haven't taken the next step......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #729 (permalink)
Live Your Bliss
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PandaWarrior View Post
How do you define market states? Is there some criteria that says market is short or long and can you see it at a glance 10 feet away from your chart? Can you do it consistently in real time or is there guessing going on? Do you ever catch yourself saying things like "I can't figure out if its long or short"? If you do, determining market state remains a mystery to you......

A friend told me recently that I needed a consistent repeatable method to determine market state....so I gave it a whirl...after a few attempts, he told me I was full of BS...that I had no way to consistently determine market state.....this was after I kept telling him the market was sideways.....he told me there was no sideways...only up or down....of course I did not believe him and he told me to prove him wrong...

So I set out to locate sideways markets using a method of locating swings and determining market state from those swings.....I've looked at many many many days of charts....lo and behold, there was no sideways, only long or short....long and short can have poor momentum to be sure and feel like sideways, but there is no sideways.... crafting a response to the market state is another matter....long, short or flat are the possible responses but determining market state first is the key.....

Another thing I've found doing this is that somethings what looks like a nice long isn't....if the market is short...and that nice long can stay that way for a long time.....well past what I would have otherwise thought of as a great long entry.....not to say I can't trade those, just know they are counter trend....and to take profit quickly......

I feel like a new vista just opened up....one I hadn't known before....it also explains why some great looking set ups fail so fast.

I've also spent some time figuring out when to cut a loser short...there has to be a repeatable method to this...something that invalidates the trade long before a stop is hit...and for at least the next few weeks, I think I've discovered something while not perfect, can suffice......more as I test it.

Wondering if I haven't taken the next step......

If you're looking for an objective definition of trend/no trend, up/down, they do exist. Of course, they are inaccurate, but everything in trading is shades of gray.

You can define a trend using the classical Dow definition (Up is HHs and HLs, Down is LLs and LHs). Maybe you can do this on a higher timeframe than you trade and then only trade 'with trend'.

Another is using Woodies CCI. Now, I am not particularly fond of it. I feel it's probably one of the worst methodologies out there..... but Woodies CCI has an objective trend/no trend indicator.

YM 5 min. today below. The top line in the indicator is trend.
Green = Trend. Brown = No Trend.
The line below indicates if the trend is up or down.
Blue = Up. Brown = Down.
How they calculate it, you'll have to dig on their web site, but it is objective.

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"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #730 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
 
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bwasi's Avatar
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
How do you define market states? Is there some criteria that says market is short or long and can you see it at a glance 10 feet away from your chart? Can you do it consistently in real time or is there guessing going on? Do you ever catch yourself saying things like "I can't figure out if its long or short"? If you do, determining market state remains a mystery to you......

A friend told me recently that I needed a consistent repeatable method to determine market state....so I gave it a whirl...after a few attempts, he told me I was full of BS...that I had no way to consistently determine market state.....this was after I kept telling him the market was sideways.....he told me there was no sideways...only up or down....of course I did not believe him and he told me to prove him wrong...

So I set out to locate sideways markets using a method of locating swings and determining market state from those swings.....I've looked at many many many days of charts....lo and behold, there was no sideways, only long or short....long and short can have poor momentum to be sure and feel like sideways, but there is no sideways.... crafting a response to the market state is another matter....long, short or flat are the possible responses but determining market state first is the key.....

Another thing I've found doing this is that somethings what looks like a nice long isn't....if the market is short...and that nice long can stay that way for a long time.....well past what I would have otherwise thought of as a great long entry.....not to say I can't trade those, just know they are counter trend....and to take profit quickly......

I feel like a new vista just opened up....one I hadn't known before....it also explains why some great looking set ups fail so fast.

I've also spent some time figuring out when to cut a loser short...there has to be a repeatable method to this...something that invalidates the trade long before a stop is hit...and for at least the next few weeks, I think I've discovered something while not perfect, can suffice......more as I test it.

Wondering if I haven't taken the next step......


Market states..hmm...but the trader's mind state is more important.
Your mind states is good PW, thats why you're currently profitable.
I hope market states will not alter your profitable mind state, as market context keep changing more than just up & down like a plane

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