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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #601 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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PandaWarrior View Post
CL is next week....

markets move together, imho.

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  #602 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
markets move together, imho.

They may move together but the rollover date is next week...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #603 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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A couple of mistakes.

1. Tried a new trade set up today without adequately testing it live first. You know that went.
2. Took a trade on a large entry bar....my wife's idea....she'd see them work over and over again....and upset with me for passing on the large risk....you know how that went as well....

Suffice to say, hit my daily stop for the first time in a while I think....

Better discipline tomorrow.

No charts...don't want to show the stupidity I exercised today......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #604 (permalink)
 kalalex 
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PandaWarrior View Post
A couple of mistakes.

1. Tried a new trade set up today without adequately testing it live first. You know that went.
2. Took a trade on a large entry bar....my wife's idea....she'd see them work over and over again....and upset with me for passing on the large risk....you know how that went as well....

Suffice to say, hit my daily stop for the first time in a while I think....

Better discipline tomorrow.

No charts...don't want to show the stupidity I exercised today......

Brian,,

About those big bar,,,,half the time it's a break-out bar and the other it's a climax bar.
I know of a guy from Brooks trading room that trades these big bars for TF with fantastic success rate with 11 tick hard stop on 5 min chart.

Don't get me wrong because I keep bringing up Al Brooks (I only do this because your thread made me go back to his method and I'm doing OK so far) but he told me to go back to the book and it's all in there.
He takes the big bar trades,,,most of them except when he deems it as climax/exhaustion. I know of one that I shouldn't take. A 3rd big bar in a direction. But there's more to it.

I'm not sure about CL but the index futures there are too many these sudden surge of movement that runs away from me I think it's a must to learn to tell if it's breakout or climax.

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 PandaWarrior 
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kalalex View Post
Brian,,

About those big bar,,,,half the time it's a break-out bar and the other it's a climax bar.
I know of a guy from Brooks trading room that trades these big bars for TF with fantastic success rate with 11 tick hard stop on 5 min chart.

Don't get me wrong because I keep bringing up Al Brooks (I only do this because your thread made me go back to his method and I'm doing OK so far) but he told me to go back to the book and it's all in there.
He takes the big bar trades,,,most of them except when he deems it as climax/exhaustion. I know of one that I shouldn't take. A 3rd big bar in a direction. But there's more to it.

I'm not sure about CL but the index futures there are too many these sudden surge of movement that runs away from me I think it's a must to learn to tell if it's breakout or climax.

I think a good idea is to determine if its a climax bar or a break out bar.....if its the third bar, its probably worth waiting....not a bad idea.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #606 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
A couple of mistakes.

1. Tried a new trade set up today without adequately testing it live first. You know that went.
2. Took a trade on a large entry bar....my wife's idea....she'd see them work over and over again....and upset with me for passing on the large risk....you know how that went as well....

Suffice to say, hit my daily stop for the first time in a while I think....

Better discipline tomorrow.

No charts...don't want to show the stupidity I exercised today......

I dont want to pick on something thats sensitive, but what do you classify as a large entry bar on the CL? Is it a tick size, or just really big in relation to the other bars?

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  #607 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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+31 today after 4 trades.

Trade 1. Just after the number came out with two very large bars in relation to the established range, I figured prices were going down.....but with the large bars, I needed to find a place to get short with as small a risk as possible.

After the third bar, I found it, went short, it went down for a bit and stalled out. At that point, I moved to BE+1 and sure enough, I got hit, and price just collapsed from there. Full target of 50 ticks happened without me. How many times has this happened to me. More than I care to admit. It seems the times I hold it, I end up with a loser and the times I go break even, I end up with a scratch trade on a winner.....This bit is frustrating me. The old song, know when to hold em and know when to fold em, is something I am still learning. I suppose just hold em all and let the chips fall where they may would in the long run, end up positive if the winners are bigger than the losers.....

Trade 2. I was late to the rally party and early to the impulse move. I wanted to be long on the opening range breakout but the bar was big and it was still counter trend from my perspective. My actual long signal had not yet fully formed but I wanted to get in on what I thought would be an impulse move to the long side. I was correct about that but wrong timing.

Trade 3. Stop and reverse from trade 2. It went down about 13 ticks and reversed at the buy zone I had marked on my charts. I thought about covering the trade, was irritated at myself for not holding the first trade and decided to hold it. Sure enough, that one was the loser. But this one was different than trade 1. This one I was 99% certain it would reverse as I had a very good buy zone it was selling into AND I still wanted to be long above the opening range. The ONLY reason I held it was I was pissed because I bailed on the first short......everything else said to cover for a scalp......

Trade 4. I recognized the signal in plenty of time to get my order in and stretch my normal 30 tick target out to 50 ticks. I had a sell zone marked in the 50 to 70 tick area from my entry point. I covered at the 50 tick location and sat the rest of the morning out.

Weekly recap.

This week, all my performance metrics improved. The metrics I look at are:

Average time in winning trades > Average time in losing trades
Biggest winner > than biggest loser
Winning percentage above =>50%

I review these weekly. If they are better than the week prior, it was a good week.

Failures this week.

Biggest failure this week was letting my wife influence me to take a trade I should not have. That was just dumb...
Secondly, I bailed out of a few trades early.
Third, I tried a set up without really testing it.

Best successes:

Had my largest single trade in forever. 50 Ticks. This trade was textbook and the target was text book. I had rational reasons to target the area I did. To be sure, price went another 50 ticks further than my target but my target took 10 minutes to go 50 ticks, and the next 50 ticks took 55 minutes. I am not sure I could have held it that long. For now, thats enough for me.

Secondly, as previously mentioned, all metrics improved this week.

Here's to a great week next week.

Cheers.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #608 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I dont want to pick on something thats sensitive, but what do you classify as a large entry bar on the CL? Is it a tick size, or just really big in relation to the other bars?

Its relative, as you know, a bar thats 20 ticks could be pretty large if the range for the day is only 85-100 ticks. But if the day is wider than that, a 20 tick bar could be on the small size.

For me though, I would prefer to see my entry bars be less than 20 or even 10-12. On the five min chart, that seems to be pretty rare and I am coming to terms with that. Generally speaking, a good entry bar is a good entry bar, regardless of the size. As it turns out, the bar I made the mistake on, didn't really count as an entry bar in any way I would "normally" view an entry bar. It was driven primarily from fear I would miss out on a perceived impulse move that by then was mostly over. There was one a few bars later on but I couldn't take it as I was stopped out.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #609 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Biggest failure this week was letting my wife influence me to take a trade I should not have. That was just dumb...

Hey, you know I would prefer it if my girlfriend said anything positive about trading. The only stuff I hear is just negative blah about how risky it is and she wishes I wouldn't - but then I guess I haven't got a profit to show for it yet.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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 PandaWarrior 
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Adamus View Post
Hey, you know I would prefer it if my girlfriend said anything positive about trading. The only stuff I hear is just negative blah about how risky it is and she wishes I wouldn't - but then I guess I haven't got a profit to show for it yet.

I've got to hand it to my wife, without her support, I'd have bailed a long time ago. She's a rock...a nervous one to be sure but she's holding this "trade" a lot longer than I've held most of my trades. I tell her she's a brave women, she just looks at me like I just said the stupidest thing in the world..... but she is a brave women....She once told me her ideal husband would be a CPA or a garbage truck driver....two things that are never going away....income stability above all else....well she married me, a serial risk taker.....there have been some serious highs and some really bad lows as a result.....

Looking for some highs now though....I can see them from here.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #611 (permalink)
 kalalex 
Up the Ladder, CA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've got to hand it to my wife, without her support, I'd have bailed a long time ago. She's a rock...a nervous one to be sure but she's holding this "trade" a lot longer than I've held most of my trades. I tell her she's a brave women, she just looks at me like I just said the stupidest thing in the world..... but she is a brave women....She once told me her ideal husband would be a CPA or a garbage truck driver....two things that are never going away....income stability above all else....well she married me, a serial risk taker.....there have been some serious highs and some really bad lows as a result.....

Looking for some highs now though....I can see them from here.

Sounds like you have a real partner in life.
I bet it's not much fun to be CPA or garbage truck driver,,,,,without ups&downs in life,,,,or should I say risk&reward...

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  #612 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Its relative, as you know, a bar thats 20 ticks could be pretty large if the range for the day is only 85-100 ticks. But if the day is wider than that, a 20 tick bar could be on the small size.

For me though, I would prefer to see my entry bars be less than 20 or even 10-12. On the five min chart, that seems to be pretty rare and I am coming to terms with that. Generally speaking, a good entry bar is a good entry bar, regardless of the size. As it turns out, the bar I made the mistake on, didn't really count as an entry bar in any way I would "normally" view an entry bar. It was driven primarily from fear I would miss out on a perceived impulse move that by then was mostly over. There was one a few bars later on but I couldn't take it as I was stopped out.

I hear what you are saying about the impulse move for fear you are coming late to the party, and that you will miss out on the choicest h'orderves. Instead of picking over the leftovers, hang near the kitchen door, and grab the next batch as they are coming out, hot and fresh. the resoning...there is always another move...2 to3 a day, going back a real long way. If you catch 1, even if its right at the opening, your day is done. A few weeks ago, i never would have believed that it was possible. Now i am a true believer.

5 minute charts on the CL can have a bar 50+ ticks. After staring at the ES for weeks, in terms of 4-6 tick moves, the CL for me was like standing near the concrete wall during the Daytona 500, trying to read the letters on the cars as they were going by. What helped me tremendously was to take a wide angle view. Coach from the sidelines, but strategize from the box above the playing field. I found my anxiety reduced a lot when I started thinking this way.

Your trades were almost Identical to the ones I took. Where you went short, tho, I was long and got stopped by 2 ticks. And i was on board on the same move you were. Love to hear that cash register ring as prices confirms my analysis. Even tho its pretty simple stuff.

Of course, in the world of derivative trading, i am still a rookie compared to many in this forum.

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  #613 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I've got to hand it to my wife, without her support, I'd have bailed a long time ago. She's a rock...a nervous one to be sure but she's holding this "trade" a lot longer than I've held most of my trades. I tell her she's a brave women, she just looks at me like I just said the stupidest thing in the world..... but she is a brave women....She once told me her ideal husband would be a CPA or a garbage truck driver....two things that are never going away....income stability above all else....well she married me, a serial risk taker.....there have been some serious highs and some really bad lows as a result.....

Looking for some highs now though....I can see them from here.

Being self employed is difficult enough, and very near impossible if you dont have the support of your significant other.

i have support from my wife, but she calls deriviative invetment "staring at the pointy graph" all mornimg. She is used to it, as I have been in the investment businmess a long time...this is different, but still investment.

You are fortunate to have support from your family.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I hear what you are saying about the impulse move for fear you are coming late to the party, and that you will miss out on the choicest h'orderves. Instead of picking over the leftovers, hang near the kitchen door, and grab the next batch as they are coming out, hot and fresh. the resoning...there is always another move...2 to3 a day, going back a real long way. If you catch 1, even if its right at the opening, your day is done. A few weeks ago, i never would have believed that it was possible. Now i am a true believer.

5 minute charts on the CL can have a bar 50+ ticks. After staring at the ES for weeks, in terms of 4-6 tick moves, the CL for me was like standing near the concrete wall during the Daytona 500, trying to read the letters on the cars as they were going by. What helped me tremendously was to take a wide angle view. Coach from the sidelines, but strategize from the box above the playing field. I found my anxiety reduced a lot when I started thinking this way.

Your trades were almost Identical to the ones I took. Where you went short, tho, I was long and got stopped by 2 ticks. And i was on board on the same move you were. Love to hear that cash register ring as prices confirms my analysis. Even tho its pretty simple stuff.

Of course, in the world of derivative trading, i am still a rookie compared to many in this forum.


i felt the same way about CL the first time I put it on a chart, but I soon learned you can be WRONG and still make money. There was room for error most days to make some money even if you got the macro picture wrong...not so on other instruments....I moved from ES to 6E to CL....it was quite an adjustment. And it seemed like the daily ATR was around double what it is now....I remember 100 tick corrections in a trend.....that barely would pull back to the 23% level....crazy.

If I went back to ES now, I would have to take a prozac to keep me from going crazy. There are days even on CL I feel like price has just stopped moving.

As to your being a rookie, remember that rookie in this business is a designation for those not making money....I seem to remember you posting no losing days this week. Thats not rookie stuff. You've gone from indicator junkie to trading the five min chart with one EMA profitably in less time it takes most of us to figure out this game is not as easy as it looks and to begin our Holy Grail hunt. Time to start trading live if your not already.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #615 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
i felt the same way about CL the first time I put it on a chart, but I soon learned you can be WRONG and still make money. There was room for error most days to make some money even if you got the macro picture wrong...not so on other instruments....I moved from ES to 6E to CL....it was quite an adjustment. And it seemed like the daily ATR was around double what it is now....I remember 100 tick corrections in a trend.....that barely would pull back to the 23% level....crazy.

If I went back to ES now, I would have to take a prozac to keep me from going crazy. There are days even on CL I feel like price has just stopped moving.

As to your being a rookie, remember that rookie in this business is a designation for those not making money....I seem to remember you posting no losing days this week. Thats not rookie stuff. You've gone from indicator junkie to trading the five min chart with one EMA profitably in less time it takes most of us to figure out this game is not as easy as it looks and to begin our Holy Grail hunt. Time to start trading live if your not already.....


Yes, I have to admit I was a bit of an indicator junkie. I had 2 SMA, 2 EMA, regression channels, some other stuff. Trying to get it all lined up was ridiculous. I figured it out pretty quickly it was usless for me. Notice I dint say useless for everyone, just not for me.

Al Brooks is the man for me. His first book is a snore, I know, and he isnt a dynamic teacher, but, i get him. Thats really it. I get him. I like the simplicity of his approach.
Maybe its time to go live??? Maybe with a little more practice...
On the webinar Wednesday, Multicharts and Mirius Futures, I found out you can trade for a block of accounts, and average the trades over more than 1 account from a single account. Been thinking of how to do that for a couple of weeks. Of course, i never thought to ask my broker...

We have nothing like this in Canada.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Yes, I have to admit I was a bit of an indicator junkie. I had 2 SMA, 2 EMA, regression channels, some other stuff. Trying to get it all lined up was ridiculous. I figured it out pretty quickly it was usless for me. Notice I dint say useless for everyone, just not for me.

Al Brooks is the man for me. His first book is a snore, I know, and he isnt a dynamic teacher, but, i get him. Thats really it. I get him. I like the simplicity of his approach.
Maybe its time to go live??? Maybe with a little more practice...
On the webinar Wednesday, Multicharts and Mirius Futures, I found out you can trade for a block of accounts, and average the trades over more than 1 account from a single account. Been thinking of how to do that for a couple of weeks. Of course, i never thought to ask my broker...

We have nothing like this in Canada.

I think Ninja has the ability to do block trades as well. Very useful if you have multiple accounts or you are trading for friends and family as well. I also know TT has that, CQG and T4 if I remember right. I am sure other platforms do as well but I know TT does....its a little pricey but worth it if you are doing professional level trading.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Just watched FT71's webinar.....excellent presentation. I learned a great deal about the mental side of trading. I highly recommend it to everyone....

I especially liked the fighter pilot analogy about how a fighter pilot doesn't pull up his manuals during a dogfight to figure out what kind of weapon he should use or what maneuver he needs to make. He just makes them.....its like a trader constantly pulling up different charts trying to figure out which time frame or set of indicators to trade....Just be an expert in your time frame and make decisions based on experience and probabilities.

Secondly, even though you have a high over all winning percentage, the NEXT trade is 50/50. Accept it and move on. Control risk with size....and if you can only trade one lot and the risk is to big, don't trade. Its that easy.

Third, think about what has happened, what is happening and what MIGHT happen. Plan for it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #618 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Just watched FT71's webinar.....excellent presentation. I learned a great deal about the mental side of trading. I highly recommend it to everyone....

I especially liked the fighter pilot analogy about how a fighter pilot doesn't pull up his manuals during a dogfight to figure out what kind of weapon he should use or what maneuver he needs to make. He just makes them.....its like a trader constantly pulling up different charts trying to figure out which time frame or set of indicators to trade....Just be an expert in your time frame and make decisions based on experience and probabilities.

Secondly, even though you have a high over all winning percentage, the NEXT trade is 50/50. Accept it and move on. Control risk with size....and if you can only trade one lot and the risk is to big, don't trade. Its that easy.

Third, think about what has happened, what is happening and what MIGHT happen. Plan for it.

Great observation. FT71 is very good, and I concur that his mental preperation was helpful to me as well. His website is excellent , and has some terrific free webinars where he speaks about how he prpares for a trading day, as well as intervention of traders who need help.

If you thought his webinar was helpful, his website is that and more.

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 PandaWarrior 
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My wife and kid are out having a mother daughter day which leave me by myself to do stuff I really like to do....Today it was to watch a couple of the webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT) that I missed. I finished FT71 as I mentioned....then I decided to do Al Brook's first one back in 2010. The material is very good....but I fell asleep during it.....he speaks the same way he writes....I just couldn't hang with it.....dang it...I wish he had a motivational speakers presentation style so I could stay awake. I think there are diamonds to be discovered in his stuff.

I think I will try it again next weekend....but I'll do his first so I have some energy left to give it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I think Ninja has the ability to do block trades as well. Very useful if you have multiple accounts or you are trading for friends and family as well. I also know TT has that, CQG and T4 if I remember right. I am sure other platforms do as well but I know TT does....its a little pricey but worth it if you are doing professional level trading.

I did my solo 401K, my LLC and my personal account all at once. What a mess!

I suggest perfecting your own account first before dabbling into that as I had a LOT OF ISSUES with OEC.

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 tderrick 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Just watched FT71's webinar.....excellent presentation. I learned a great deal about the mental side of trading. I highly recommend it to everyone....

I especially liked the fighter pilot analogy about how a fighter pilot doesn't pull up his manuals during a dogfight to figure out what kind of weapon he should use or what maneuver he needs to make. He just makes them.....its like a trader constantly pulling up different charts trying to figure out which time frame or set of indicators to trade....Just be an expert in your time frame and make decisions based on experience and probabilities.

Secondly, even though you have a high over all winning percentage, the NEXT trade is 50/50. Accept it and move on. Control risk with size....and if you can only trade one lot and the risk is to big, don't trade. Its that easy.

Third, think about what has happened, what is happening and what MIGHT happen. Plan for it.


Would you mind tossing a man a few links to his stuff so I won't forget to watch it ?


AJ
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 Gary 
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tderrick View Post
Would you mind tossing a man a few links to his stuff so I won't forget to watch it ?

Here is one:
Webinar: FuturesTrader71 on Volume Profile

As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
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 PandaWarrior 
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Thats the one...


and this one September 1st: Trader Analysis | FuturesTrader71

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Chart was speaking to me a bit better today. Still hung up on a couple of things....nevertheless, it was a good day....


My first loser was a signal that I thought I should take but it was straight into a buy zone, so I took it but bailed almost immediately.

The second loser was a buy slightly higher than where I thought I should buy but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger in that zone. Once I did pull the trigger, I thought we could possible retest that buy zone area and I did not want to hold a trade through that....So I bailed, and then once the buy zone was not retested, I had more confidence to take the long....

Third loser was just stupid, I had a good signal, the risk was larger than I wanted but I took it anyway, to reduce risk, I brought the stop up based on a swing from the 1M chart and just as Al Brooks said, I got taken out to the tick and the trade went to my target. I did not chase it though, thats even worse than moving the stop early.

Last trade was a winner I had been waiting for all through the chop...unfortunately, it only went 25 ticks and I locked in eleven.

Ended the day with +54


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 Surly 
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At the risk of being redundant (some would consider redundancy an improvement for me) - here is the link of all ft71's webinars (most are free):

Chat Archive | FuturesTrader71

The older ones tend to have more educational content...

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Chart was speaking to me a bit better today. Still hung up on a couple of things....nevertheless, it was a good day....


My first loser was a signal that I thought I should take but it was straight into a buy zone, so I took it but bailed almost immediately.

The second loser was a buy slightly higher than where I thought I should buy but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger in that zone. Once I did pull the trigger, I thought we could possible retest that buy zone area and I did not want to hold a trade through that....So I bailed, and then once the buy zone was not retested, I had more confidence to take the long....

Third loser was just stupid, I had a good signal, the risk was larger than I wanted but I took it anyway, to reduce risk, I brought the stop up based on a swing from the 1M chart and just as Al Brooks said, I got taken out to the tick and the trade went to my target. I did not chase it though, thats even worse than moving the stop early.

Last trade was a winner I had been waiting for all through the chop...unfortunately, it only went 25 ticks and I locked in eleven.

Ended the day with +54


Nice work on the trades.

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 madLyfe 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Chart was speaking to me a bit better today. Still hung up on a couple of things....nevertheless, it was a good day....


My first loser was a signal that I thought I should take but it was straight into a buy zone, so I took it but bailed almost immediately.

The second loser was a buy slightly higher than where I thought I should buy but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger in that zone. Once I did pull the trigger, I thought we could possible retest that buy zone area and I did not want to hold a trade through that....So I bailed, and then once the buy zone was not retested, I had more confidence to take the long....

Third loser was just stupid, I had a good signal, the risk was larger than I wanted but I took it anyway, to reduce risk, I brought the stop up based on a swing from the 1M chart and just as Al Brooks said, I got taken out to the tick and the trade went to my target. I did not chase it though, thats even worse than moving the stop early.

Last trade was a winner I had been waiting for all through the chop...unfortunately, it only went 25 ticks and I locked in eleven.

Ended the day with +54


nice work today buddy.. i know they are your charts and you can do whatever you want with them, but that purple text on the chart is really hard to read but that might just be me..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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  #628 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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madLyfe View Post
nice work today buddy.. i know they are your charts and you can do whatever you want with them, but that purple text on the chart is really hard to read but that might just be me..

I have to say...he's right...it is hard to see. You must have a 46 inch HD monitor.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I have to say...he's right...it is hard to see. You must have a 46 inch HD monitor.

Its a 30 inch...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 Rad4633 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Its a 30 inch...

Hello Panda....its the color thats hard to read on our end, maybe another color would be better for us

Nice trading just ran across ur thread and wanted to say hello

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  #631 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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+3 ticks today. Tried to get long at the lows of the day, kept getting stopped out. This was based on the 30M chart which I have posted as well. I should just wait until I have a REAL signal on the 5M and then go long....

I got short just before the open. I trailed my stop by one bar, got taken out at the open and then it raced to my target of of 50 ticks....I could not find a safe place to reenter so I just watched it go by.

The early longs were an attempt to "get back at the missed short" by fading the move....I never do well with this type of trade. Its usually taken when I am frustrated and not all that well thought out. However, IF I wait for the actual signal, it did what I thought it would do which was make new highs....I thought the new highs were in the works as the downside targets were not met from the opening range as well as the trendline on the 30 min chart looked ripe for longs to come in. At one time I saw over 500 lots in the 105.65 area...lots of people getting long.

Several mistakes today, when I acted on the actual signal, I was able to make up for the mistakes. While not happy about the mistakes, I am happy to finish the day in the green...if just by a few ticks.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 Rad4633 
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PandaWarrior View Post
+3 ticks today. Tried to get long at the lows of the day, kept getting stopped out. This was based on the 30M chart which I have posted as well. I should just wait until I have a REAL signal on the 5M and then go long....

I got short just before the open. I trailed my stop by one bar, got taken out at the open and then it raced to my target of of 50 ticks....I could not find a safe place to reenter so I just watched it go by.

The early longs were an attempt to "get back at the missed short" by fading the move....I never do well with this type of trade. Its usually taken when I am frustrated and not all that well thought out. However, IF I wait for the actual signal, it did what I thought it would do which was make new highs....I thought the new highs were in the works as the downside targets were not met from the opening range as well as the trendline on the 30 min chart looked ripe for longs to come in. At one time I saw over 500 lots in the 105.65 area...lots of people getting long.

Several mistakes today, when I acted on the actual signal, I was able to make up for the mistakes. While not happy about the mistakes, I am happy to finish the day in the green...if just by a few ticks.



I like the white text, My day with the ES is bout same as yours, my own fault

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 PandaWarrior 
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Better today....

Missed the premarket sell buy a few minutes, was still in the shower....Missed the buy in real time. Can't believe I didn't see it....then waited through news twice.....Helicopter Ben and the inventory report, started looking for a short after a 30M chart trend line touch, got the signal, looked for a pullback, and bam, 100 ticks without me, no pull back.
Waited for longs....got long early, out with 7 ticks...to early to the party....waited for the real signal, got in, could not believe I was in so far away from the EMA, bailed. BE....turns out, that was the correct signal.....No heat, price came back to the BE point and I finally got in for real. Problem was, almost time to step away from the office...So got 30 on it, and original target zone was hit and then a reversal followed shortly thereafter....Did not wait for pull back on this one, just went with it....covered at a logical retracement point on the move up.....and watched it drop another 100 ticks without me....

I ended +50 but wow, it could have been so much better.

Chart is messy today but it is real...exactly like I marked it real time.....even the one I missed in real time, I actually had the lines drawn.....sheese......


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  #634 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Brian,

Just want to applaud you for your journal and the consistency you've demonstrated, which is resulting in positive traction for your trading business.



Mike

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 Adamus 
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Big Mike View Post
Brian,

Just want to applaud you for your journal and the consistency you've demonstrated, which is resulting in positive traction for your trading business.



Mike

PandaWarrior,
in that light, it would be interesting if you could say whether you think your journal helps you and if so, how?

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 PandaWarrior 
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I'm tired so not to much narrative today...suffice to say, it was a wild one....I'll post more later today after I've had a nap. +79 for the day.

About ready to ditch the moving average.....one more day and then I will decide.

Jing not working today so have to use the other one....


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 PandaWarrior 
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Big Mike View Post
Brian,

Just want to applaud you for your journal and the consistency you've demonstrated, which is resulting in positive traction for your trading business.



Mike

Thanks Mike, I think I've finally stopped relying on indicators for the most part and just trading price action....we'll see.....

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 PandaWarrior 
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Adamus View Post
PandaWarrior,
in that light, it would be interesting if you could say whether you think your journal helps you and if so, how?

Its a love hate relationship...I hate the daily grind of posting most of the time, but the accountability to the process is good....I used to write for others, now I write for me. I want to have a record of what I did and why. I don't always get that why part in the post but I can look back at the historical record and make judgement calls....

However, one thing I don't post but I feel is of even more importance is your statistics....if you know your numbers, it gives you confidence a written record cant do on its own....so log the numbers, your win/loss ratio, your $ per win, $ per loss, time in winners, time in losers, MAE, MFE, etc.....these are really important....also know your draw down numbers. What's your average draw down....max losers in a row, winners in a row....all by themselves, these numbers are not individually important, but taken as a whole, you can get an excellent view of your trading..

For me, average time in winners vs average time in losers is becoming a big one......

anyway, hope this helps...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #639 (permalink)
 Gary 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Its a love hate relationship...I hate the daily grind of posting most of the time, but the accountability to the process is good....I used to write for others, now I write for me. I want to have a record of what I did and why. I don't always get that why part in the post but I can look back at the historical record and make judgement calls....

However, one thing I don't post but I feel is of even more importance is your statistics....if you know your numbers, it gives you confidence a written record cant do on its own....so log the numbers, your win/loss ratio, your $ per win, $ per loss, time in winners, time in losers, MAE, MFE, etc.....these are really important....also know your draw down numbers. What's your average draw down....max losers in a row, winners in a row....all by themselves, these numbers are not individually important, but taken as a whole, you can get an excellent view of your trading..

For me, average time in winners vs average time in losers is becoming a big one......

anyway, hope this helps...

I agree with Mike's comment above. Congratulations on sticking with it and making some real progress in your trading career!

I think you hit the 'nail on the head' with your comment on building confidence with your statistics.

Really, this is a huge part of a successful trader. Building confidence helps remove/overcome fear, which is, in my humble opinion, the primary reason people are not able to execute on a good trading plan using the experience they have gained thru 100s of hours of screen time. This is also why people are able to make big $ on SIM, but then when switching to live/cash get their ass handed to them.

I think you know this already, but many are still struggling with this 'phase' of their trading career which can be a long one. I hope those same people will read your threads, and all of the many great threads on futures.io (formerly BMT) with regards to the psychology of trading, and really take to heart the importance of keeping a journal/statistics. How do you know where you are going, when you don't know where you have been, so to speak.

Keep up the nice work! I am confident your threads will serve as inspiration to the many other traders who are at various stages in their careers.

Gary

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  #640 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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Gary View Post
I agree with Mike's comment above. Congratulations on sticking with it and making some real progress in your trading career!

I think you hit the 'nail on the head' with your comment on building confidence with your statistics.

Really, this is a huge part of a successful trader. Building confidence helps remove/overcome fear, which is, in my humble opinion, the primary reason people are not able to execute on a good trading plan using the experience they have gained thru 100s of hours of screen time. This is also why people are able to make big $ on SIM, but then when switching to live/cash get their ass handed to them.

I think you know this already, but many are still struggling with this 'phase' of their trading career which can be a long one. I hope those same people will read your threads, and all of the many great threads on futures.io (formerly BMT) with regards to the psychology of trading, and really take to heart the importance of keeping a journal/statistics. How do you know where you are going, when you don't know where you have been, so to speak.

Keep up the nice work! I am confident your threads will serve as inspiration to the many other traders who are at various stages in their careers.

Gary

i can say personally, that reading Pandawarriors journal has inspired me.To see a trader ascend to the next level, and continue on is rare.I may be wrong, but i havent seen many.I have wondered, what its like for Big Mike, who has seen this more than most of us.Great job guys!

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  #641 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I'm tired so not to much narrative today...suffice to say, it was a wild one....I'll post more later today after I've had a nap. +79 for the day.

About ready to ditch the moving average.....one more day and then I will decide.

Jing not working today so have to use the other one....


Nice job today. Congratulations.

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  #642 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Very narrow premarket today. I typically try to be very careful on narrow days....however, I resolved to take trades as I saw them...

The opening 5M bar was way out of proportion to the globex session. This generally means a range bound period is coming. Sure enough, it was...but since I dont really know how to trade range bound days, I traded based on the same type of trend line/S/R break I have been. This does not work as you are entering in the middle of the range....perfect for getting cut to pieces.

That being said, even though it was a losing day, I am trying to generate a positive out of it. So I came up with 4.

1. I kept taking my signals even though I felt I could not trust them. Not trusting your signals turns into holy grail hunting or worse.
2. I made sure I lost small if I could.
3. I set a pain threshold well below my stop limit. If I got close, I would just quit....and thats what happened.
4. I had a moment which I recognized as "to hell with it itis". I quickly smothered that emotion. I knew from experience that would lead to a blow out day. I actually had my hand on the mouse to do a impulse trade...but I gathered myself and was able to rationally talk myself out of it.

Today was a teachable moment....lessons learned.

1. I have a reasonable expectation that large opening bars generally mean sideways for a while. Don't trade or perhaps attempt to trade the ranges instead, do not trend trade.
2. I had a daily chart with a desending trend line price was bumping up against....be careful with longs. Stops need to be far away from the noise. I can't do this so might be better to wait for the break.
3. Its really ok to wait for the larger time frame break on days like this.

-16 today....not terrible considering how much worse it could have been.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Large spike up out of the channel on the daily chart premarket. Should have anticipated a sideways morning and I should have been long at 107.90..that was the long signal on the daily chart and then just held it.

Instead, I tried to trade the range using normal trend line breaks....I had profit on several trades, some when for losers and some were BE. After the losers, I got aggressive with the trail stop.

The major failure I had today was two fold, not anticipating the sideways movement and not trading the support created by fridays high.

I'm pretty disappointed in my price action reading skills today. It seems improbable that some thing I have been working on for so long would be so difficult on days like today.

To many trades, half the wrong direction. And I let trades that had profit come back to often when I saw them hitting support or resistance.....

I ended the day +2 and consider myself fortunate to be flat.


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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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 PandaWarrior 
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I couldn't figure out where price wanted to go....I felt up due to how the daily chart looked but we were definently below reistance...so I did nothing today. No trades...first time in a long time I have had a no trade day....

Tomorrow then....

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 bobarian 
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that breakout caught me off guard, still scratchin my head, actually.the 3rd time we got up to that 106.75 area, i knew better to fade, but this thing blasted off.The am on the 5 min was slop.(for lack of a better word).Ill scratch my head again now

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 PandaWarrior 
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After the sell off today, I moved to a one minute chart to look for trades. I was anticipating exactly what happened. Sideways...so I figured I could make some money on a smaller chart.

+30


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 panama 
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Panda

What do you use to help draw your trend lines?

Thanks

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 PandaWarrior 
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Panda

What do you use to help draw your trend lines?

Thanks

The drawing tools in ninja....click the pencil button at the top of the screen and choose a tool.

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  #650 (permalink)
 cory 
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The drawing tools in ninja....click the pencil button at the top of the screen and choose a tool.

hit F2, save 1 click.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I decided to just draw S/R today and trade that with trend lines....I like it so far...

Of course I used my fib tools, etc, but not worrying about a moving average left me free to see S/R. I didnt trade it perfectly today but it was decent. I had two trade management mistakes which cost me at least 40 ticks.

Yesterday I listened to the webinar with FT71. I have to say, that was a fantastic webinar. In particular, I liked a couple of things he had to say.

1. Confirmation is for Catholics...trade price risk for information risk.

2. Scale out has its emotional and equity curve advantages. Intellectually, I have always known that scaling out is the way to go to get that monkey off my back in terms of minimizing risk very quickly. However, I also know that AIAO is the mathematical superior way to trade IF a trader behaves rationally and holds his or her trades to completion and is willing to hold through the inevitable ups and downs of a trade thats in the money....and the short answer is no....most traders including me behave irrationally upon entering a trade. We seemingly lose the ability to think once a trade is on, but if we can get rid of risk quickly, then trade management becomes much easier.

Yesterday after FT71 proved that scaling out is better for your equity curve and easier on your psyche, I made the emotional connection to scaling out. I'll never trade another way again.

Today's chart represents a combination of my scale out positions. I wont detail them since I don't want anyone emulating me, people need to come up with what works for themselves. Just make it workable on your instrument and time frame.

Now to today's trading. Price came up to resistance just before the pit open, came back down and broke a trend line and support, I entered at the break, scaled out right away and moved stop to BE+1, price continued down and and I got my second scale right away. Not much time in that portion of the trade, last position stopped at +1

Second trade was a retest of the break down area, price tested resistance, closed down, I took the trade, saw support to the left as well as a possible triple bottom and just bailed. NOTHING invalidated the original premise of the trade and yet I acted irrationally, Cost me my first two scales.

Then came the 300 tick rally and 150 tick pull back. Just waited through all that. price found support around 106.33, which happened to coincide with the bottom of the large volume bar, I waited for a touch and rebound, I got a pull back with a smallish bar to enter and I was able to scale out my first two positions fairly easily.

Third through fifth trades were no so well executed, you can see them on the chart.

All in all, a nice day, +51.

I would have liked to have gotten part of the 300 ticks but there was no way to anticipate that and almost impossible to just jump in with anything remotely resembling good risk management. So just have to pass and wait it out.

Emotionally, the scale out thing worked well today, less money to be sure than if I held AIAO but I think FT71 is correct, the early scales will save my bacon on the times I behave irrationally.


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 Big Mike 
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 Private Banker 
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I would have liked to have gotten part of the 300 ticks but there was no way to anticipate that and almost impossible to just jump in with anything remotely resembling good risk management. So just have to pass and wait it out.

Emotionally, the scale out thing worked well today, less money to be sure than if I held AIAO but I think FT71 is correct, the early scales will save my bacon on the times I behave irrationally.


Not that the magnitude of the move higher was predictable but there were some telling signs that catered to a long opportunity from yesterday's RTH close area.

The market bounced off of yesterday's resistance that held the market practically all day until the buyers won control and moved the market higher into the pit close. It made sense for the market to test that today since it was so close to the RTH close.



By looking at the volume down there, it was pretty clear that there were buyers absorbing price up. I think the remainder of that move was news driven but I find it funny how news and rumors always come in at key trade areas. I realize you don't use the volume ladder but just wanted to show what happened down there.







Great job today though! As I've said multiple times on futures.io (formerly BMT), I'm a firm believer in scaling out of your position. We enter a trade based on a set up/hypothesis but we aren't sure if we will be right or how far the move will go which is why you want to utilize scale outs that are reasonable and easily attainable based on an average move for the market in which you're trading while leaving a runner on the books to take you as far as the move will go. You want to take risk off as your position moves in your favor guaranteeing either a smaller loss (if you're wrong), a break even or winner even if your trailer is stopped out. Your runner's exit is up to you of course which will come from your trading preferences, etc.

Cheers,
PB

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 PandaWarrior 
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Not that the magnitude of the move higher was predictable but there were some telling signs that catered to a long opportunity from yesterday's RTH close area.

The market bounced off of yesterday's resistance that held the market practically all day until the buyers won control and moved the market higher into the pit close. It made sense for the market to test that today since it was so close to the RTH close.




Cheers,
PB

I think I might use the profile if it looked a pretty as yours... I am reluctant to use the GOM stuff as I have heard from several people how time intensive it is to set up and maintain. I don't have the skills to do that nor do I have the inclination. I'm surprised that NT doesn't have it native. Pretty much all the major platforms have it and if NT wants to be a major player, you'd think they would implement.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Narrow range day. Just took the trades at support and resistance as I thought I should and scaled out a bit early. I made three mistakes. One early I took a full stop out on, then later on, I stopped and reversed twice. This cost me two stop outs, the commissions on the trades and the lost profit on the original trade that eventually worked to the first two scales. The swing on that was around 45 ticks....with out that mistake sequence and adding the profit from the original trade, it would have been a slightly profitable day. As it was, ended the day down -34.

No charts today.....

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 cory 
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Narrow range day. ..
No charts today.....

do you reduce your target for NR day or keep the same?

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 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
do you reduce your target for NR day or keep the same?

I kept them the same for the early portion of the day until it was apparent the range was pretty small... I should have tighten up more than I did but you never know...

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 PandaWarrior 
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I should mention I am on sim for two weeks. My kid is on spring break and that makes me the primary caregiver....so rather than try to trade and take care of her, I just elected to sim trade and get in some practice.

Now the thoughts...

the chart attached has a couple of circles....last night I marked some areas of support and resistance. The two heavy yellow lines at the top and bottom are the areas I marked as important for today..

The top line was dead on....and hence my dilemma. In light of @FT71's "confirmation is for Catholics" comment, do you just sell market when you get to a location like that or do you wait for "confirmation" like a bar closing in the direction of the proposed trade? I've never done anything like that before but I know people do it......often times it appears as though the trade is just stepping in front of the bus....price was going straight up from a support area....why would I think I could just sell the level without some sort of confirmation or indication things would go my way? I am open to ideas about this. Currently I only buy and sell tops of blue bars or sell bottoms of red bars....momentum....but there wasn't much today.....

I am open to suggestions about how to do this.


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 Private Banker 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I should mention I am on sim for two weeks. My kid is on spring break and that makes me the primary caregiver....so rather than try to trade and take care of her, I just elected to sim trade and get in some practice.

Now the thoughts...

the chart attached has a couple of circles....last night I marked some areas of support and resistance. The two heavy yellow lines at the top and bottom are the areas I marked as important for today..

The top line was dead on....and hence my dilemma. In light of @FT71's "confirmation is for Catholics" comment, do you just sell market when you get to a location like that or do you wait for "confirmation" like a bar closing in the direction of the proposed trade? I've never done anything like that before but I know people do it......often times it appears as though the trade is just stepping in front of the bus....price was going straight up from a support area....why would I think I could just sell the level without some sort of confirmation or indication things would go my way? I am open to ideas about this. Currently I only buy and sell tops of blue bars or sell bottoms of red bars....momentum....but there wasn't much today.....

I am open to suggestions about how to do this.


That top yellow line was approximately Friday's Value Area High (VAH) for the RTH session. That was the top end of the range where price was accepted. This can serve as support or resistance based on the next trading session to determine if price is still accepted in the previous area of value. With today being an inside day, you could've established a short entry there had you felt the markets were going to remain an inside day or maybe test the lower end of Friday's value area (which it did). The second area where you circled was a retracement to the RTH open and the third was a retracement to vwap. You could've established positions off all of those but with today being an inside day, it was best to buy or sell the support or resistance.

I initiate entries off of areas of significance such as that provided elevated volume is present. I don't typically have an order just sitting there, I wait to see what the reaction is first (via the volume ladder and DOM) and then try to get an entry as close as possible to that area. Entries don't have to be precisely the level but should be fairly close (within a few ticks). If you have a resting order, the market will often make a flush at an important area to try and grab stops of smaller traders. What will happen is you'll see a bunch of trades fire off real fast and then you'll see a steady flow of orders step in from there. This is for CL however. Other markets behave differently. CL is a beast and it will always overshoot areas that are meaningful. Anyway, hope that helps.

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Billbb
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Well not so much killer stops as poor trade selection driven by fear. The stops were also driven by fear in that they were improperly placed.

First of all, I was anticipating a break out day today following 4 back to back narrowish range days. What I was not expecting was the immediate nature of the break down. The break down appears to have been a stop run on the daily chart as it reversed to take out any tight stops and went to make new highs.

Secondly, I was not expecting a major internet disconnect. I was down for almost thirty minutes this morning in the middle of one of the nicest set ups and runs I've seen in a while.

I got a couple of bites out of the sell off. Then in a fit of greed, proceeded to take two trades in a row that quite frankly were just stupid. They were motivated by only one thing....greed and fear....the desire to make more than was being offered and fear I would miss more of the move down assuming it kept going. So I sold it twice in a location that is never part of my trading plan.

Immediately after taking these two trades, my internet went down. After I restored my connection, I saw I had missed a wonderful long series of trades. I was somewhat frustrated by this but as the connection was not my fault, I was only mildly irritated. But then, in an effort to capture some of it, I took a valid pattern but in a non valid location. I got out with less than a full stop.

To compound things, when I did get a great signal in a valid location, I took the trade only to have it stop out at BE because I used an aggressive stop for fear of maybe being at the beginning of a reversal. Bad move. The thing went on to have another nice run.

I then made it worse by repeating the same sequence of errors later on in the move that I had made at the bottom of the sell off. Thats when I called it quits.

As a result of this, I have elected to revisit my risk reward ratio, the exact premise of my trades, the location of my trades and how those trades are managed. I'll be reworking my targets to accomodate better R:R. This is part of the two issues I am working on. Closing winners early and choosing better locations for trades.

With regards to the two issues I am focusing on, today I did not manually close a single trade out early. This is a major improvement for me. The second issue is waiting for better location in time and space. There was less improvement in this area and will continue to require more work.

I dropped the ADXVMA today. The super trend is enough. I can recognize PA and my patterns in the context of the super trend. I'll be using that for at least another week and then decide if I need or want it past then.

In the context of everyday being a great learning experience, today was a good one. Other than that, it was a bust in terms of money. The lessons I learned today are ones I have repeated. But for some reason, they really sank in. I've modified my ATM's to accommodate the stop rules for my pattern trades instead of being in charge of moving those manually, I'll let the computer do it for me.

I've also put the exact nature of where I'd like to see the entries set up in my trading plan. Until now, I've had them in my head. While I know what they are, its really easy to fudge on them if there is no accountability to a written plan. Over the next few days, I will be revising my written plan to delete a few things and add a few in. I may post the plan on the forum if for no other reason than to be accountable to it.

Ok thats it for today.

2011-07-26_1543 - aztrader9's library

Hey Pandawarrior,

I read alot of ur early post, Im kinda following ya..your experiences resonate w/ me. But I want to share w/ u about my internet issue so it might help u w/ ur issue.

I unfortunitly have at&t, u may have someone else? but, Ive discovered that they do whats called "dropping packetes" ..thats when they intentionaly drop connection in order to stop free downloading by thousands of people, thus causing a start over..that saves at&t alot of $$.

So I have kept an ongoing log of drops daily sinse x-mass, when I discovered this. The times of drop conn is like clock work, changes from week to week starting on sunday for the rest of the week. I can bet a $100 moments befor the drop that it will occur..like, all week same times, 2:17 5:17 11:17 12:17 the min. & hr are same all week then it changes to 9:46 10:46 12:46 1:46 All weeeek same times.

So maybe pay attention to the time each time u have a drop & see if theirs consistency, my case its not the wires as they try to say, if it were wires or equipment their would be sparatic times of drop, not a programed time.

Hope that helps. If not, then it felt good to vent. I havent pulled $ out of trading account so wife wont let me switch, but as soon as I do, Im dropping at&t!!

 
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 Adamus 
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Billbb View Post
Hey Pandawarrior,

I read alot of ur early post, Im kinda following ya..your experiences resonate w/ me. But I want to share w/ u about my internet issue so it might help u w/ ur issue.

I unfortunitly have at&t, u may have someone else? but, Ive discovered that they do whats called "dropping packetes" ..thats when they intentionaly drop connection in order to stop free downloading by thousands of people, thus causing a start over..that saves at&t alot of $$.

So I have kept an ongoing log of drops daily sinse x-mass, when I discovered this. The times of drop conn is like clock work, changes from week to week starting on sunday for the rest of the week. I can bet a $100 moments befor the drop that it will occur..like, all week same times, 2:17 5:17 11:17 12:17 the min. & hr are same all week then it changes to 9:46 10:46 12:46 1:46 All weeeek same times.

So maybe pay attention to the time each time u have a drop & see if theirs consistency, my case its not the wires as they try to say, if it were wires or equipment their would be sparatic times of drop, not a programed time.

Hope that helps. If not, then it felt good to vent. I havent pulled $ out of trading account so wife wont let me switch, but as soon as I do, Im dropping at&t!!


Had the same thing. Packet loss - and my broker software reacts really badly to it. I found out about it and complained and they didn't admit that they do it, they call it "profiling", but they did tell me I needed to use the business tariff, and not the home user tariff. So I switched, problem went away. That's BT in London. Hope you've got something better where you are.

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 PandaWarrior 
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As I am on sim these next two weeks, I am trying some stuff out....at the same time I am trying to solve the puzzle of losing a full stop with size vs winning with a scale out approach.

Today, I made a couple of mistakes early, caught almost all of the rally, then caught almost all the sell off. Today was a perfect example of this issue. I had two very nice winners that using size would have resulted in a loser day if the winners were/are scale out winners. In terms of tick count per trade, I am up, in terms of dollars, I am down. This should not be. The losers were bigger than the winners even though the winners in terms of ticks were much bigger.

Scaling out makes it SO much easier to manage a trade once its a winner. Its the mistakes that kill you.

Phantom of the Pits said to lose small and press the winners. Rule Two....

The only way I can see to do that is to enter with basically a small portion of the size you hope to have on and add to it once its a winner and at a logical place to enter another, separate trade if you were flat. Then move the stop to the logical stop location on the entire position and at that point, the trade is free.

Now apply this to a 5 min chart for CL. Where MOST moves have been mostly impulse spikes followed by a nasty sideways channel...you will get a few trend bars with little or no chance to put a second position on unless its a break of a previous bar. The idea of waiting for a pull back to a moving average does not work during the kind of days we've been having...you get a spike and channel. On days when its trending nicely and it has multiple MA touches with succeeding higher highs and higher lows for a long rally, sure, its pretty easy....but the kind of days like we've seen lately, its capture the impulse move or you are done for the day.

However, one possible way around it is this, find your entries/levels on a five min chart, enter small, move to a one min chart, wait for the pull back there and enter the remainder of your position......even this I am not sure about.

Check out today's impulse move down....very little opportunity to scale in. Seems to be the norm lately.

Anyway, I love the scale out idea....and I love the scale in idea even more. It guarantees you lose small when you make mistakes and it guarantees you win big when you are right....but doing it in real time....thats the issue. The other issue with that is on moves with no second scale opportunity, you win big but with small size. Thats ok if you are losing small with small size, but the idea is to crush the winners with as much size as you can risk, not with one or two lots. Ideally if you can trade 10 lots, you'd like to have 4-6 or even 10 lots on when you finally close the trade 50-100 ticks later.

Today really put this issue into perspective for me....glad its on sim.


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Billbb
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Adamus View Post
Had the same thing. Packet loss - and my broker software reacts really badly to it. I found out about it and complained and they didn't admit that they do it, they call it "profiling", but they did tell me I needed to use the business tariff, and not the home user tariff. So I switched, problem went away. That's BT in London. Hope you've got something better where you are.

I went thru all kinds of stuff to try to fix it. The easiest fix would to change to Comcast for my area & FIRE at&t. Its a touchy subject w my wife cus she's tired of hearing me.

I just know when its gonna drop & I trade accordinly, but I like to trade naket so floor doesnt see my stp and if Im near the drop time I havt to put a stp on...christ sakes

I use free version cus Im just a peanut among a land of makers & breakers, I stick my head out the window then I wanna run & hide. just kidding. I'll ask about a commercial service.

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 worldwary 
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As I am on sim these next two weeks, I am trying some stuff out....at the same time I am trying to solve the puzzle of losing a full stop with size vs winning with a scale out approach.

Today, I made a couple of mistakes early, caught almost all of the rally, then caught almost all the sell off. Today was a perfect example of this issue. I had two very nice winners that using size would have resulted in a loser day if the winners were/are scale out winners. In terms of tick count per trade, I am up, in terms of dollars, I am down. This should not be. The losers were bigger than the winners even though the winners in terms of ticks were much bigger.

Scaling out makes it SO much easier to manage a trade once its a winner. Its the mistakes that kill you.

Phantom of the Pits said to lose small and press the winners. Rule Two....

I've read the Phantom of the Pits book and he points out that this "adding to winners" rule is better suited to longer time frames. With the smaller time frames that you are trading it would be harder to find a logical entry point. While you're on sim you might experiment with using a reentry point that is not as obvious. For instance, rather than waiting for a pullback, enter another unit at every break of the prior 5-minute bar's high/low or something like that. (I think PoP also advised to make the second entry smaller than the first, so something like a 3-2-1 pyramid approach might be better.)

A scale-out approach is the opposite of the PoP approach, and what you experienced today is a good example of why the scale-out approach can work against you at times. You ideally want your system to produce winners that are larger than your losers on average, and the PoP scale-in approach is one way to do that. It only works though if you can stick with it through thick and thin.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I've read the Phantom of the Pits book and he points out that this "adding to winners" rule is better suited to longer time frames. With the smaller time frames that you are trading it would be harder to find a logical entry point. While you're on sim you might experiment with using a reentry point that is not as obvious. For instance, rather than waiting for a pullback, enter another unit at every break of the prior 5-minute bar's high/low or something like that. (I think PoP also advised to make the second entry smaller than the first, so something like a 3-2-1 pyramid approach might be better.)

A scale-out approach is the opposite of the PoP approach, and what you experienced today is a good example of why the scale-out approach can work against you at times. You ideally want your system to produce winners that are larger than your losers on average, and the PoP scale-in approach is one way to do that. It only works though if you can stick with it through thick and thin.

He does use it on a daily time frame if I remember correctly but since time is fractal, I see no reason why it couldnt be used on an intra day basis. The trick is two fold, where to scale in, and where to exit the entire position. This approach is the opposite of scale out....but I think it could work.

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 worldwary 
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The major rule that PoP uses for scaling in is to add once the position has "proven itself" to be right. If you're trading a breakout, for instance, add after price has broken far enough through the S/R level that you are confident the level has been breached.

When trading smaller timeframes (and therefore smaller price moves), the targets need to be moved closer in. So while you may use 50 ticks of leeway on a daily chart, you might only allow yourself 10 ticks of leeway on a 5-minute chart.

This likely means that you need to be adding a position right about the time that you would normally be scaling out of your position if using the scale-out approach.

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 PandaWarrior 
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+77.

I was gonna use rule two today and forgot to change my ATM on the first trade. So entered with a scale out trade instead of a scale in trade.

After that, the trades were one lot entries looking for another possible place to enter. I just decided price action was not gonna lend itself to that type of trade. Sixth trade was AIAO as I had no intention of looking for a runner. Price had made it to support on the 30M chart and figured it was good for a small trade. I got in a little late but still worked out ok.

Last trade was one lot looking to see if perhaps my premise on the 6th trade was wrong and it might break and run. It didnt so I just exited with 10 ticks.

One lot trades offset each other, winners with size made the money.

Now if I can do that every day......


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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
+77.

I was gonna use rule two today and forgot to change my ATM on the first trade. So entered with a scale out trade instead of a scale in trade.

After that, the trades were one lot entries looking for another possible place to enter. I just decided price action was not gonna lend itself to that type of trade. Sixth trade was AIAO as I had no intention of looking for a runner. Price had made it to support on the 30M chart and figured it was good for a small trade. I got in a little late but still worked out ok.

Last trade was one lot looking to see if perhaps my premise on the 6th trade was wrong and it might break and run. It didnt so I just exited with 10 ticks.

One lot trades offset each other, winners with size made the money.

Now if I can do that every day......


Nicely done. +77 is certainly a nice days work. I would gladly take 1/3 of that every day. i like how you stayed with the trend...it was the right move to look for shorts from pit open.

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 Massive l 
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PandaWarrior View Post
+77.

Panda, you kick ass. awesome journal you have.

Similar trade for me but with only 1 lot. Still getting a feel for CL.
I wait for the close below the level then enter short on the pullback
72 ticks

I actually woke up to take my target off and switch to trailing stop
but I was just a little too late. next time.


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 PandaWarrior 
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+60. A major mistake made early, a quick recovery, out 100 ticks to soon...whats a guy to do?

nice clean swings today. I had fun watching them.

To trade or not to trade after a 100 tick sell off. Last few weeks, thats all you got...sideways after that for a long time. I got 80 ticks out of a 100 or tick drop...last couple of weeks, time to quit, today, out to early....a conundrum.

Anyway, I am happy with the decisions I made today....all of them.


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 PandaWarrior 
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added another 20...+80 on the day


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 worldwary 
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What have you been doing today in terms of scaling in/out?

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Billbb
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added another 20...+80 on the day


Nice!!

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 PandaWarrior 
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What have you been doing today in terms of scaling in/out?

I was all in all out today. I had a feeling as price started moving down, cant justify it based on my early statement I would never trade another way again...but for some reason, it seemed like the right thing to do....smaller size to be sure than my normal scale out size, but I made more money on the smaller size AIAO than I would have on the scale out......

I should also add that the -20 i had earlier was because I overslept, got there late and saw I had missed a great long entry and so I took a break of the OR...stupid really.....I mean, its a valid trade but I dont trade it...so why start now?

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 Private Banker 
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PandaWarrior View Post
added another 20...+80 on the day


Great job! Be careful on the pit open trades. Price tends to really swing around at the open. Way to hang on to a winner though on your second trade. That was an amazing move down! Then that last move was icing on the cake!

Cheers,
PB

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 PandaWarrior 
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Alternating higher highs and lower lows today....

I was long early, the scale out got me to break even status after 20 minutes and the trade being underwater most of that time.....but correct stop placement made all the difference. The OR breakout failure virtually guaranteed some downward movement and so entered short at break of previous swing low. Good for 3 scale outs.

Then I took a bit of a break, came back, set down, and within a few minutes had a complete system failure. Had a minor power surge at the house, and every thing went down. Including the battery back up. Ugh.....anyway, go it working again and decided to play around a bit with something I've been thinking about in terms of looking at the market somewhat differently and using limit orders to enter a short on the way up and stop orders to add to the position on the way down. Because of the system failure, I was unable to get orders in at the locations I wanted so tried to get them filled approximately where I wanted them but still was unable to There wasn't much movement so that didnt work to well but had my system not gone down, it would have worked out fairly well. Not fantastic of course but no worse than break even.

Then it was time to head out....and I missed the best structured move at least in terms of how I like to trade. That was good for all three scale outs.....

Next week I will be splitting my sim time between scale out and possible scale in ideas. My thinking is I may need to go down in time frame a bit to get the scale in locations....or simply add every time a bar is broken in a trend...not sure how to actually do this. Someone told me to add an 8EMA and add there if price pulled back to it. I may do that but not sure if I want another MA on the chart.

My goal is to average 50 ticks a day net per contract next week.

Depending on how well I do with the scale in approach, I will implement some of it the following week.


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 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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 Lornz 
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PandaWarrior View Post
added another 20...+80 on the day


Now you're starting to get it! It's important to ride the big moves for what they're worth; it really improves one's equity curve.

Great job!

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 tderrick 
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Looking good, my friend.

Holding on to trades longer.

Lets catch up. I'll buzz you tomorrow sometime.... what is a good time for you?


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
Looking good, my friend.

Holding on to trades longer.

Lets catch up. I'll buzz you tomorrow sometime.... what is a good time for you?

Sunday afternoon would probably be best....I wont be sitting at the computer but I'll take the headphones out of my machine so I can hear skype calling....anytime you are free in the afternoon is fine.....

Talk to you soon....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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Big Mike View Post
Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

A) Top five....actually the biggest one is re reading and facing my inconsistency over time. Its no wonder its been such a hard journey. I've changed paths so often its hard to go anywhere at all.

B) Biggest one is simply...discipline to simply wait until something I recognize as a legit trade set up appears....and then have the balls to take it, and then to have the patience to let the trade develop.

C) I didn't want to expose myself to much...I think I've gotten over that. Then I had a hard time NOT responding to the overly antagonistic posts and PM's. I did a couple of times and then I decided to just ignore those.

D) Biggest take away for me in journalling is simply the habit of doing the same thing over and over again. Sticking with it. To be honest, I don't feel like it much anymore. In the beginning, I wanted others to read it, give me ideas on how to find the holy grail, etc. I also had a tad bit of pride attached to the number of views, thanks, profile visits as the journals progressed. That's past.....The only reason I journal publicly now is for me. Its an easy place to post thoughts and keep a permanent record of my journey. I could easily switch to a private blog or just paper and pencil but I have a lot invested in this thread now and I intend to continue it as the repository of my trading life. If others benefit or have constructive advice, I welcome those but its not the intent of the journal now.

E) I would encourage anyone serious about trading to journal far more than I have....and be more detailed about the emotions while in the trade. Its what makes a person a winner or loser...how they handle the emotions of trading.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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Set ups at news...I really dislike those....

Experimenting with three different exit ideas.

Two all in all out ideas and a scale out. Taking every trade with all three. End of week, will compare the stats.....

This AM had to work via log me in as my trading machine was in the office and I had a guest sleeping in there. That made it somewhat difficult but I managed to get it working just before the entry.....I took my trade off at +25 as i felt we were at some support there.

Second entry was a larger risk than I would normally like but there was room for a few ticks and it had come off the support area pretty strong. Unfortunately, it was just before news so I took it off when the news alert rang.

After that, it was straight up. I had only one real location to enter and was unsure of that so I just let it go.

Net for the day is +35

If I get another entry, I'll take it but I suspect thats it for the day.


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 researcher247 
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PW,

No offense; you are way too nice to a guest; don't care even if it is family.

Unless you are on sim today--wouldn't you tell your 'clan' and guest(s) that you will be using your full resources for your work (basically everyone works around your needs)?

Sorry, I just do not approve of any professional trader making concessions w/his space/trading/work environment.

I guess I am not a nice guy when it comes to my 'trading space' and expect others to respect that 100%.

All traders deserve their own personal 100% office space and (in my opinion) anyone in the house should know that they should consider you 'at the office' and NEVER disturb you unless someone is dying.

Again, sorry--I just feel very strongly all traders need to have their 'cone of silence.'

peace

Hedvig

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 PandaWarrior 
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PW,

No offense; you are way too nice to a guest; don't care even if it is family.

Unless you are on sim today--wouldn't you tell your 'clan' and guest(s) that you will be using your full resources for your work (basically everyone works around your needs)?

Sorry, I just do not approve of any professional trader making concessions w/his space/trading/work environment.

I guess I am not a nice guy when it comes to my 'trading space' and expect others to respect that 100%.

All traders deserve their own personal 100% office space and (in my opinion) anyone in the house should know that they should consider you 'at the office' and NEVER disturb you unless someone is dying.

Again, sorry--I just feel very strongly all traders need to have their 'cone of silence.'

peace

Hedvig

Some things are more important than money. I have my space 99% of the time. But I will never sacrifice family or friends for a job....and I am on sim last week and this week. My kid is out of school for spring break and that makes me the primary caregiver. So a strategic decision was made to sim this week and last for the very reason that's near impossible to trade effectively with constant interruptions.

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 Big Mike 
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Happy Birthday, Brian!









Mike

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 sleepy 
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 kalalex 
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Happy Birthday, Brian!


Ditto,,,,

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 PandaWarrior 
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Well who knew it was possible to take 100 ticks out of a 100 tick range? Strange but true. Range was 100 ticks all morning, but I managed to take 100 ticks out....dang that feels nice to say.

Paying VERY close attention to swings.....and trend lines....along with some really sexy indicators made this possible.....well the indicators are sexy but not so sure about the help they provided....I just like the look of them....

Still testing my three exit methods...so far the AIAO intermediate target is providing the best overall equity curve. The runner option would have done well today assuming I scaled into additional lots once the initial scale outs had filled....there were a couple of areas to scale into an existing trade but to be fair, my mind slipped out of that mode today...all I saw were the AIAO entries and the single runner. Oh well. Today would have been a perfect Rule Two day. Truthfully, I don't think I am advanced enough for that yet....but soon perhaps.

Still today was 6 times my daily objective in terms of dollars and double my daily objective in terms of ticks. Combined with yesterday's tally and I now have a can't lose week.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Thank you to all the public and private birthday wishes.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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Some asked for the indicators...

Here they are along with a pdf on how to use them

Use at your own discretion....I take no responsibility for any trading account blown up by their use.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles-raghee-horner.pdf  
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Register to download File Type: zip GrabSetupForCurrencyPairs (1).zip (4.5 KB, 94 views)
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 Anagami 
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Thanks Panda, and Happy Birthday!!

Raghee's hot, but I'm not impressed by any of her analysis / advice. Lot of second hand rehash. Thanks for posting.

"The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven." - Milton
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 PandaWarrior 
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Thanks Panda, and Happy Birthday!!

Raghee's hot, but I'm not impressed by any of her analysis / advice. Lot of second hand rehash. Thanks for posting.


I agree on the first point and I've never read a word she's written except the PDF I posted and that was months ago....its a trend following system with the built in issues that all trend following methods have...but it does make it easy to follow a trend.....if you don't already have a method...

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 tderrick 
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Happy belated birthday, buddy !!


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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I made a couple of mistakes today.

First one was shorting after a broken swing hi and no actual signal to go short.
Second one was not taking my profit at 25 ticks and instead trying to hold for the last resistance level. Was this a real mistake? Not sure....no matter, I had a 25 tick target based on average swing moves from my entry points, it coincided with a resistance level and i should have taken it off there.
Third. Two impatience driven trades. Both break even. I got lucky on these. Instead of exiting them asap once I realized what i had done, I moved my stops to BE and left the targets in place on the off hand chance I might get lucky and have price move my way.

The trade of the day was once I could not take due to the number coming out. I had to let it go. I wanted to find a way to get on board but had to wait almost 20 minutes to do so. I sold the bottom of the large sell of candle after a lower high had been put in....This was a hard trade for me to do, but there was very little heat.....

Last trade was a blind sell of the same level as the previous trade. I thought that level would hold at least once and it did. It was also the 23% fib area....This is the first time I have ever sold a level blind and have it work for me. I have always gotten run over in the past.

At that point, I had to cut the trade short as I was leaving. It had been within 2 ticks of my target anyway and was pulling back. It eventually did work for the full target but I was long gone.

+45 ticks today and very happy to have them.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #695 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
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Get to feeling better, pal...

a little Zinc may help clear that head up.

no more than a 100mg / day. lot's of water.

sudafed and Guaifenesin are also essential



AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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No losing days this week. +21 today

Total ticks for the week...201. Should have been more but I guess I should be overjoyed with this and I am...

Learned a lesson today....which I have "learned" many times...If you believe in the trade, hold it. Would have been a much better day today.

Truth was though, I didn't believe in anything today. Pretty much felt like crap and that of course clouded my judgement. Trading sick is not advisable.

Heres to a long weekend and hopefully i will be feeling much better by Monday.

Cheers


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
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PandaWarrior View Post
No losing days this week. +21 today

Total ticks for the week...201. Should have been more but I guess I should be overjoyed with this and I am...

Learned a lesson today....which I have "learned" many times...If you believe in the trade, hold it. Would have been a much better day today.

Truth was though, I didn't believe in anything today. Pretty much felt like crap and that of course clouded my judgement. Trading sick is not advisable.

Heres to a long weekend and hopefully i will be feeling much better by Monday.

Cheers


Well, 201 ticks is a tremendous week, considering its only 4 days. And when you arnt 100% to boot.

Maybe you should start thinking of running your own hedge fund.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
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  #698 (permalink)
 kalalex 
Up the Ladder, CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Optimus & AMP
Trading: ES
 
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Brian,

Back in one of the posts you wanted to try market profile,,,more of volume profile as in FT71's approach but didn't like @gomi 's MP because of data management.

I think you should look at it again.

You can use now ninjatrader's minute or tick data. You don't have to constantly save and manage data and I think gomi's onto it to PERFECT it.

just FYI.

Latest version at the link below (post # 487) and it's better than those commercial 3rd party products.



PS: I think we really should support gomi someway for his efforts.

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Price risk sucks....

And so does moving ones stop to soon....

More later

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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I was chicken today. Excellent entries, nice pull back areas to short from, price honored the levels I was seeing...but I couldn't hold em today.....so I was down 30 ticks before I found my courage.....

Then I couldn't believe price might be long after screwing it up so bad on the short side.

I waited until the major resistance level and trend line was broken before I got long....There was a TON of room to make some ticks before that ever happened though but I waited it out.

I got long before the level was actually broken with a confirmed close above it, had i waited for that, I would have missed it all.

Now to price risk vs information risk. When I was shorting this morning off the levels I was seeing, all I could hear was @FT71 talking about information risk vs price risk. As I was waiting for a momentum bar to take me in, I recognized it as price risk....I've known this all along but it didn't affect me until today. Thats why I got nervous, I was shorting in the middle of the range due to my need to have confirmation. The trades were good, I just talked myself out of them using the logic I should have been in sooner therefore the trades were bad and just get out.....

The long was pretty fast and so didnt have all that much time to second guess it much. I knew where I wanted to be out, and held it that far while tightening up the stop periodically. I had 50 locked in when it hit my target.

Time to go eat Easter leftovers.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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