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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #501 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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I think it may be time to change your system. Maybe a higher time-frame, or new indicator should be in order? what do you think....



(JUST KIDDING!, you are doing great)

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  #502 (permalink)
 monpere 
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PandaWarrior View Post
-27

Just couldn't get it to day. Then I just gave up......

Another crappy day on the CL, I got just 2 signals all morning, when I generally get around 10. You might want to think about some sort of filtering mechanism to keep you out of unfavorable market environments like this, unless you think you just could not get your personal mojo going today.

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  #503 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
I think it may be time to change your system. Maybe a higher time-frame, or new indicator should be in order? what do you think....



(JUST KIDDING!, you are doing great)

You have no idea how much I get tempted to do that every time I have a day like today!!!!

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  #504 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Another crappy day on the CL, I got just 2 signals all morning, when I generally get around 10. You might want to think about some sort of filtering mechanism to keep you out of unfavorable market environments like this, unless you think you just could not get your personal mojo going today.

I have a confession....I have felt like my personal mojo has take a vacation and not invited me along for the trip.

I battled some of the old demons today. The desire to constantly be in the market. I think this comes after a losing streak because I understand that without being in the market, money cannot be made and that if I am not in the market, I will miss the next big thing.....

All bad emotions.

Instead, I need to recognize I have an edge designed to keep me OUT of the market unless there are favorable conditions to be in the market.

In hindsight, I did have signals....enough to make it a decent day or perhaps a scratch day depending on how long I was prepared to sit and wait for the market to make it to my targets.

In real time, my emotions overrode my edge and created out of thin air, fictitious signals I was compelled to trade even though I knew it was against my self interest. It was almost impossible to control today.

In a way, these days are very valuable, they point out weakness and points of interest to work on. On great trading days, its not hard to remain in control. On poor trading days, it can be impossible. The mark of a good trader is not how they trade on great days but how they trade on poor days.

By that standard, I am still a beginner.

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  #505 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
You have no idea how much I get tempted to do that every time I have a day like today!!!!

Indeed I do.... Sad isn't it..

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  #506 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have a confession....I have felt like my personal mojo has take a vacation and not invited me along for the trip.

I battled some of the old demons today. The desire to constantly be in the market. I think this comes after a losing streak because I understand that without being in the market, money cannot be made and that if I am not in the market, I will miss the next big thing.....

All bad emotions.

Instead, I need to recognize I have an edge designed to keep me OUT of the market unless there are favorable conditions to be in the market.

In hindsight, I did have signals....enough to make it a decent day or perhaps a scratch day depending on how long I was prepared to sit and wait for the market to make it to my targets.

In real time, my emotions overrode my edge and created out of thin air, fictitious signals I was compelled to trade even though I knew it was against my self interest. It was almost impossible to control today.

In a way, these days are very valuable, they point out weakness and points of interest to work on. On great trading days, its not hard to remain in control. On poor trading days, it can be impossible. The mark of a good trader is not how they trade on great days but how they trade on poor days.

By that standard, I am still a beginner.

To me, setting expectations of wins every day is most likely unrealistic. Market conditions change and I have noticed a tight ranging on the CL which is not good trading for your system. To me that is just market conditions and you adapting 'on the fly' to those, and you will get better over time.

However, the key is to stay positive and not count your ticks/pips by the day and focus more on the longer term windows of opportunity. I am a very judgmental person on myself as well as others, and I always want to measure my performance from a metric that doesn't matter. Measuring off of a daily makes no sense as if you didn't have losing days you would be the richest person in the world as your confidence would be unstoppable.

Your body can't run a marathon every day and reach the same times. At some point things will snap, pop, ping and you will have some downtime but it is temporary. Losses are inevitable and I am not telling you anything you don't know or already feel.

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  #507 (permalink)
 monpere 
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bluemele View Post
To me, setting expectations of wins every day is most likely unrealistic. Market conditions change and I have noticed a tight ranging on the CL which is not good trading for your system. To me that is just market conditions and you adapting 'on the fly' to those, and you will get better over time.

However, the key is to stay positive and not count your ticks/pips by the day and focus more on the longer term windows of opportunity. I am a very judgmental person on myself as well as others, and I always want to measure my performance from a metric that doesn't matter. Measuring off of a daily makes no sense as if you didn't have losing days you would be the richest person in the world as your confidence would be unstoppable.

Your body can't run a marathon every day and reach the same times. At some point things will snap, pop, ping and you will have some downtime but it is temporary. Losses are inevitable and I am not telling you anything you don't know or already feel.

In terms of expecting to win everyday, I understand what your are saying, but there is a slight nuance. I expect to win everyday I sit at that trading chair. If I trade well in accordance to my plan and market condition, and still have a losing day, that is perfectly acceptable, that is the way it goes sometimes. But, if I have a losing day because I made numerous mistakes, or took unnecessary risk, or went outside of my plan, wrong market condition, or was sick, in a bad mood, wrong mental state, etc. etc., then that should not be acceptable, I need to identify these things and work on them.

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  #508 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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+26

I quit at +26 and just marked charts from there. It went winner, BE, loser, winner....


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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #509 (permalink)
 monpere 
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PandaWarrior View Post
+26

I quit at +26 and just marked charts from there. It went winner, BE, loser, winner....

I think it's a good idea to quit while you're ahead sometimes for emotional capital. Sometimes I feel it is important to do that after a bad day or string of bad days etc., to regain that emotional capital lost.

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  #510 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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monpere View Post
I think it's a good idea to quit while you're ahead sometimes for emotional capital. Sometimes I feel it is important to do that after a bad day or string of bad days etc., to regain that emotional capital lost.

That was my exact reason for stopping......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #511 (permalink)
 devdas 
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PandaWarrior View Post
-8 today.


guess...you were short side biased on this...your short trade ( -10 ) after spotting reversal ( Red circle ) and long trade ( -7 ) in center.

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  #512 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
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bluemele View Post
Indeed I do.... Sad isn't it..

I need to confess too. I changed my timeframe again, and dropped an oscillator in favor of another!

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 PandaWarrior 
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Cloudy View Post
I need to confess too. I changed my timeframe again, and dropped an oscillator in favor of another!

I to have another confession....I think all oscillators are junk.....just my unlearned opinion. I've used them and for the life of me, cant figure out how in the world they are of any help.....

As to time frames, if you go up in time frame to cut down noise, not such a bad thing, if you go down in time frame in an attempt to make your stop smaller, be very careful. Its a trap. If you go down in time frame to generate more signals for a good system, then thats probably ok, but going up is the better option.

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  #514 (permalink)
 researcher247 
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Good advice PW,

Find a sweet spot in your MAIN timeframe that agrees with your R:R and psychology and risk parameters. If you go down 3 timeframes and it degrades alot in win% and r:r and just seems more random, that timeframe is too small.

If that is the case, you could drop a bit from your MAIN timeframe by 25 or 50% (but not 300% lower) if you want smaller risk in terms of absolute $$; just make sure it is nearly as robust as the MAIN timeframe you found works best for you.

The old adage of 3 main timeframes (either dynamic such as tick/volume or range or static such as time based) and a 4th for longer term (time based interval) is good advice from hundreds of traders for many decades.

Always better to look HIGHER in timeframes to confirm your lower-timeframe entries. Look higher--not lower.

Finally, (just my own advice) find ways to relax and/or reach your 'zen' when there are no signals. Brainwash yourself into enjoying this time and tell yourself you actually prefer this time so you can just chill while patiently and calmly waiting.

I listen to music and do esoteric/technical charting on a higher time-based interval for fun while waiting for regular timeframes to line up for a good setup that adheres to my rules and trading plan.

peace

Hedvig

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  #515 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
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lol. Most oscillators probably are junk. And they all lag. The one's I use are mainly to look for momentum pushes, and divergences, and sometimes drawing trendlines on them. At some certain points in time I'd like to think they are useful for that, and for the rest of the time they can be misleading noise. Good points about time frames. Thanks.

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  #516 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Cloudy View Post
lol. Most oscillators probably are junk. And they all lag. The one's I use are mainly to look for momentum pushes, and divergences, and sometimes drawing trendlines on them. At some certain points in time I'd like to think they are useful for that, and for the rest of the time they can be misleading noise.

What is your fav div indie?

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  #517 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
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bluemele View Post
What is your fav div indie?

you didnt ask me, but this is mine :



its a combo of 2 D9POs...

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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  #518 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
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bluemele View Post
What is your fav div indie?

Probably MACD now. I've seen "instructors" use RSI or CCI. CJBooth used stoch divs in his thread for hidden divergences for entries, and Rsqueeze divs for exit warnings. TICK (with BBands or a keltner channel )can be good if trading an RTH index.

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  #519 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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madLyfe View Post
you didnt ask me, but this is mine :


its a combo of 2 D9POs...

I always thought that one sounded a bit like a star trek weapon....

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  #520 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
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Sure is a big "Delta Nine Particle Oscillator" cannon!

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  #521 (permalink)
 devdas 
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sometimes i feel both , Oscillator and Momentum can be easily derived from a chain of Trend-Lines...

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 PandaWarrior 
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Cloudy View Post
Sure is a big "Delta Nine Particle Oscillator" cannon!

I wonder if Paul Tudor Jones uses one of these whiz bang indies? I'm just asking because I am sure he has the latest and greatest...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #523 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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+25 today.

Had some issues with the rollover procedure today. Got it figured out but it took a while.



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  #524 (permalink)
 Surly 
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I think of MA's as oscillators. The location of price relative to its EMA "oscillates" and is sometimes "too far" from the EMA (i.e., overbought or oversold). Most oscillators use some type of MA in their calculation.

One way I use EMAs is to think in terms of "trade location". If you are going long and price is relatively far above its EMA, this is what I would call "bad trade location". Conversely if I'm going long and price is way below the EMA, I call this "good trade location". Near the EMA would be "neutral trade location". Not to say that I would not go long with price way above the EMA or, said another way, take any trade based on "Trade Location" - "Trade Location" is just one factor in my decision-making.

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  #525 (permalink)
 Surly 
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incidentally, I think whether you've got your instrument set to "mergebackadjusted" or "do not merge" in the instrument manager screws up charting during roll-over in ninjatrader.

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  #526 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Surly View Post
I think of MA's as oscillators. The location of price relative to its EMA "oscillates" and is sometimes "too far" from the EMA (i.e., overbought or oversold). Most oscillators use some type of MA in their calculation.

One way I use EMAs is to think in terms of "trade location". If you are going long and price is relatively far above its EMA, this is what I would call "bad trade location". Conversely if I'm going long and price is way below the EMA, I call this "good trade location". Near the EMA would be "neutral trade location". Not to say that I would not go long with price way above the EMA or, said another way, take any trade based on "Trade Location" - "Trade Location" is just one factor in my decision-making.

That's funny but I understand your logic. I think of MAs as flexible trend lines......not sure if that is a valid way to look at them but its odd how many times they tend to line up with a solid hand drawn one.

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  #527 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
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PandaWarrior View Post
That's funny but I understand your logic. I think of MAs as flexible trend lines......not sure if that is a valid way to look at them but its odd how many times they tend to line up with a solid hand drawn one.

DYNAMIC trend lines...

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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  #528 (permalink)
 bobarian 
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madLyfe View Post
DYNAMIC trend lines...

Agood insight imo...Something ive been doing lately, is to look for a trendline that will fit with the 21 ema.After 2 weeks on the 5 min, with the 21 ema, i believe the ema is solid enough...if it is backed up by a TL, it is very good.We draw our trendlines in real time, and sometimes realize later, that we missed a TL that did match well with the ema.Is this bending the TL to fit the ema?Darned if i know...its more like choosing different candles to use for the TL.(or, using tais/wicks vs bodies only.I dont think it matters...I think finding the correct TL is important,...and just like atm mgmt is a grey area(unique to every trader), maybe TLs are also.I watch PAT recaps on his es trades , and he is very good...to see him draw the TLs is good info, imo...By the way, great job Pandawarrior on the trading....something i was pondering this weekend, when away from the computer....you broke to the next level, profitability live.And had some very good weeks.I believe that some pf the days you have had these last few weeks were just part of the process.Markets change, sometimes easier/harder..whatever...it doesnt matter...at month end...youre green.

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  #529 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
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bobarian View Post
Agood insight imo...Something ive been doing lately, is to look for a trendline that will fit with the 21 ema.After 2 weeks on the 5 min, with the 21 ema, i believe the ema is solid enough...if it is backed up by a TL, it is very good.We draw our trendlines in real time, and sometimes realize later, that we missed a TL that did match well with the ema.Is this bending the TL to fit the ema?Darned if i know...its more like choosing different candles to use for the TL.(or, using tais/wicks vs bodies only.I dont think it matters...I think finding the correct TL is important,...and just like atm mgmt is a grey area(unique to every trader), maybe TLs are also.I watch PAT recaps on his es trades , and he is very good...to see him draw the TLs is good info, imo...By the way, great job Pandawarrior on the trading....something i was pondering this weekend, when away from the computer....you broke to the next level, profitability live.And had some very good weeks.I believe that some pf the days you have had these last few weeks were just part of the process.Markets change, sometimes easier/harder..whatever...it doesnt matter...at month end...youre green.

i know you've been working on your trading with the trend lines for a bit and to offer a suggestion about them.. they way your are doing them is fine, but i would start your day out on a 15min chart(or whatever size, maybe 60) and mark up your lines on that for the big picture. draw in your wedge, channel single trend lines, etc.. make sure they are set to global and a diff color than your 5min trend lines.. then go about your business as you would normally..

if you get to the tops of wedges and channels look for sells.. look to sell on breakouts of those HTF patterns at prior swings in anticipation of channel/wedge reentries.. and then look for buys off those lines to continue higher if pattern reentry fails.. the revers is true for the opposite side of the patterns.. and stay out of the middle of the patterns as price is choppy in these areas..

i find this places are really prime areas to pick up trades that fall into your(anyone's) 'system' during the day.. this will also fall inline with keeping it simple and keeping the charts simple.. just some food for thought..

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 papa15 
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PFGBEST has several platforms, among them is this MotiveWave: Stocks, Futures, Options and Forex Trading/Analysis Platform this platform appears to have many of the features I would like in a trading platform but the one that stands out the most is native OSX compatibility. This just changed the dynamics of my trading world. If this platform is good and works well on my Mac, I may have the best of everything!

PFGBEST also supports Mac, who knew!

Looks like I will be engaged in a demo on my Mac for the next month.


Brian
I might have missed it, but what was the end result of your trial of MotiveWave? Did it measure up to what you need? Is it a viable option for trading with a MAC? Thanks
Papa15

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1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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 bobarian 
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i know you've been working on your trading with the trend lines for a bit and to offer a suggestion about them.. they way your are doing them is fine, but i would start your day out on a 15min chart(or whatever size, maybe 60) and mark up your lines on that for the big picture. draw in your wedge, channel single trend lines, etc.. make sure they are set to global and a diff color than your 5min trend lines.. then go about your business as you would normally..

if you get to the tops of wedges and channels look for sells.. look to sell on breakouts of those HTF patterns at prior swings in anticipation of channel/wedge reentries.. and then look for buys off those lines to continue higher if pattern reentry fails.. the revers is true for the opposite side of the patterns.. and stay out of the middle of the patterns as price is choppy in these areas..

i find this places are really prime areas to pick up trades that fall into your(anyone's) 'system' during the day.. this will also fall inline with keeping it simple and keeping the charts simple.. just some food for thought..

ive been using the 60min, and i agree with what you are saying...too much diddle in the middle can be trouble

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 PandaWarrior 
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Brian
I might have missed it, but what was the end result of your trial of MotiveWave? Did it measure up to what you need? Is it a viable option for trading with a MAC? Thanks
Papa15

I did not have the latest OS required to run the platform. But its Java based so it should run just fine. I tested it for 3 weeks on window and if it runs as nicely on MAC OS as it did on XP, it should be just fine.

I had a couple of conversations with the developer regarding some features I felt were to hard to use along with some of Ninja's ATM and chart trader features.

I particularly liked their DOM as well as the TON of built in indicators and studies. Not to much is customizable there but with the depth of what they have, I don't think customization is necessary.

Didnt see market profile there but they have built in Elliot Wave analysis along with Gartley patterns, etc.

I think its worth a trial to see. Currently I have a lifetime license to ninja so I would need to be really fed up with Ninja or want to move to MAC exclusively....both actually and currently I am pretty happy with ninja.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I've fallen into the habit of moving my stops to soon...especially on days like today. Levels were respected most of the day until they weren't but I couldn't see it. All I saw was the lack of instant gratification and took steps to protect capital. Instead, I got wacked and let it affect my judgement. Once the smoke cleared, I was able to see clearly the entries as marked by small triangles but had so little faith in myself at that point to hold the trade long enough I just elected to pass on most of them.

I also had a fat finger issue that began a series of losers....I lost focus when that happened and it took me a while to get it back.

I'm sick and tired of these kinds of days kicking my ass. I think its time to make a change....the first one is this. I will no longer move my stop unless I get a signal to go the other way. Instead, its full stop or full target. No matter how long it takes.

Green circles are actual entries I should have taken during the chop. The rest are crap.


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 PandaWarrior 
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+20

I felt like I was trading in molasses today. Just spike and wedge all day. Anyway, I've been looking at using HTF again in terms of trading the one min against a five min chart and to be fair, I have always sucked at that. Getting two charts to agree has always been problematic for me. Couldn't follow it on two charts....remember I come from the generation that just missed the video game revolution in the 80's. Oh well......

@Fat Tails visual EMA for multiple time frames solves the issue. I played around with the settings a bit to get it to track the actual EMA on the 5M chart and while its not perfect, its close enough.

Then I've been looking at "Puke Points". Not pivot points but puke points. Places where people need to get out of a trade. I've noticed on the 5M chart as well as the one min chart this happens several times a day. They normally coincide with a trend line or MA intersection but not always.

So today, as market structure developed, I tried to determine where those locations where and see about taking the opposite side of the trade along with following any momentum that might develop from these locations.

The chart is NOT my trading chart today although I have my two lonely trades marked....instead its about puke point identification.


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 PandaWarrior 
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+25

I fat fingered an entry earlier on, that cost me 5 ticks....then missed one that cost me ten ticks due to not paying attention.....got a bad fill on another that cost me 5 ticks and ended up +25. Otherwise a nice 35 tick day on what could have been a couple of hundred tick day.....if I was swinging for that kind of day. I'm not currently but seriously thinking about stretching targets out to the 25-30 tick range. Maybe start that next week.


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 madLyfe 
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+25

I fat fingered an entry earlier on, that cost me 5 ticks....then missed one that cost me ten ticks due to not paying attention.....got a bad fill on another that cost me 5 ticks and ended up +25. Otherwise a nice 35 tick day on what could have been a couple of hundred tick day.....if I was swinging for that kind of day. I'm not currently but seriously thinking about stretching targets out to the 25-30 tick range. Maybe start that next week.


maybe implement a runner? +10 then + whatever from there?

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maybe implement a runner? +10 then + whatever from there?

I think I will...it makes good sense psychologically.

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 madLyfe 
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I think I will...it makes good sense psychologically.

it should help take some risk off the table too.. i can't remember if you have a fixed stop or if it is adjusted on the fly to a proper location or not but there are a few options you could use our have it auto BE at a certain point after first tgt is filled at 10 and then reaches 20 or something to that nature...

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So after talking to a couple of my trading buddies from around the world, mostly about the psychology of runners vs all in all out scalping, I think the time has come to turn loose the runner.

My reasons:

1. I have decent entries most of the time.
2. Most of those are worth more than ten
3. I need a very high win rate to make money at a 1:1 RR. I'm not that good yet.
4. Being in a runner eliminates the need to constantly look for new entries thereby reducing over trading issues.
5. One runner makes up for a lot of losers.
6. I'm tired of analyzing the chart bar by bar for entries. Now I will focus on exits. This should reduce my decision fatigue issue.
7. Crude is both a cruel and loving mistress. When you play her right, she rewards you extremely well. When you play her wrong, her punishment is swift and ruthless. Runners reduce my exposure to punishment.


Potential problems.

1. News. Often times the move happens just as news comes out. I no longer feel it necessary to be flat for some of the news events. But NFP, Inventory, Housing, FOMC are the major ones I can think of at the moment I will be flat for.
2. The psychology of having a few break evens to every winner.
3. The extra work of looking for reasonable targets.
4. Patience to hold to desired target. I hope taking off part of the position early will help and allow me to manage the remainder with a degree of rational thought that an all in all out position seems to deprive me of.

I'm sure there are other considerations to think about but for now, this is it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 bluemele 
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You say tomotoe, and I say Tamato....

To me, I would not be changing ANYTHING. If I am consistently profitable and have found a method that meets my consistency requirements then I would stay put and continue to master it. I would then look for another long term setup that might also be an additional setup. Nothing more, nothing less.

Just my opinion on not changing anything.

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 monpere 
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So after talking to a couple of my trading buddies from around the world, mostly about the psychology of runners vs all in all out scalping, I think the time has come to turn loose the runner.

My reasons:

1. I have decent entries most of the time.
2. Most of those are worth more than ten
3. I need a very high win rate to make money at a 1:1 RR. I'm not that good yet.
4. Being in a runner eliminates the need to constantly look for new entries thereby reducing over trading issues.
5. One runner makes up for a lot of losers.
6. I'm tired of analyzing the chart bar by bar for entries. Now I will focus on exits. This should reduce my decision fatigue issue.
7. Crude is both a cruel and loving mistress. When you play her right, she rewards you extremely well. When you play her wrong, her punishment is swift and ruthless. Runners reduce my exposure to punishment.


Potential problems.

1. News. Often times the move happens just as news comes out. I no longer feel it necessary to be flat for some of the news events. But NFP, Inventory, Housing, FOMC are the major ones I can think of at the moment I will be flat for.
2. The psychology of having a few break evens to every winner.
3. The extra work of looking for reasonable targets.
4. Patience to hold to desired target. I hope taking off part of the position early will help and allow me to manage the remainder with a degree of rational thought that an all in all out position seems to deprive me of.

I'm sure there are other considerations to think about but for now, this is it.

One more thing to consider. When you loose with a runner you loose by double the amount. This means that you will need to put more psychological pressure on managing runners to make up for each loser. I suggest you design and test the new methodology well in sim, to discover all the not so obvious aspects.

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 PandaWarrior 
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monpere View Post
One more thing to consider. When you loose with a runner you loose by double the amount. This means that you will need to put more psychological pressure on managing runners to make up for each loser. I suggest you design and test the new methodology well in sim, to discover all the not so obvious aspects.

I think this is the only REAL concern I have, I think though that one runner should make up for any of that.....I've ran numbers and based on my average loser, I should be OK. I dont take trades that require large stops so i pass on several good trades a day just due to risk on the trade. So I keep my average loser pretty constant in terms of ticks, so if i can get my average winner to be 2-3X or even perhaps have a 4-5x winner once in a while, then it should be viable long term.

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
You say tomotoe, and I say Tamato....

To me, I would not be changing ANYTHING. If I am consistently profitable and have found a method that meets my consistency requirements then I would stay put and continue to master it. I would then look for another long term setup that might also be an additional setup. Nothing more, nothing less.

Just my opinion on not changing anything.

I wrestled with this for weeks....so making the decision has been tough. The only thing i am changing is the target.....or at least secondary target....

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 tderrick 
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I think this is the only REAL concern I have, I think though that one runner should make up for any of that.....I've ran numbers and based on my average loser, I should be OK. I dont take trades that require large stops so i pass on several good trades a day just due to risk on the trade. So I keep my average loser pretty constant in terms of ticks, so if i can get my average winner to be 2-3X or even perhaps have a 4-5x winner once in a while, then it should be viable long term.

It's good to catch up with ole PW...

What is your average SL this days...

hope all is well, my friend...


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tderrick View Post
It's good to catch up with ole PW...

What is your average SL this days...

hope all is well, my friend...

Nothing bigger than 12

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 monpere 
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Nothing bigger than 12

How do you determine your stop placement? Do you put it behind your entry bar, behind S/R,... etc

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 Surly 
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PW - I applaud you for stepping into the place between where you are (comfort or relative comfort) and where you want to be (more successful) - this is always the place where growth occurs and where risks are higher.

One way to approach the runner vs. fixed target question is by going back through your last 100 entries and asking how many would have benefited from a trailing stop strategy (you can use a number of methods for staying with trades - trailing stops are just one). I suggest a trailing stop because you can use an objective method (again, many ways to skin this cat) to determine the outcome of the trade. One that I quite frequently use when I have a high conviction target is the supertrend indicator on a tick chart (varying the # of ticks varies the relative risk). I set the indy to 1,3,3 and with CL you might look at a 300 or 350 tick chart. Using an objective indy helps with the emotional difficulty of sticking with a trade outside of your comfort zone (scalping). It also gives you a simple way to analyze how your method would have worked or is working. Finally, it gives you data about how well you are doing at sticking to a plan.

good luck!

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 PandaWarrior 
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monpere View Post
How do you determine your stop placement? Do you put it behind your entry bar, behind S/R,... etc

Hopefully both but I have only one, then its the entry bar....so it needs to be 12 or less.....

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 tderrick 
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Nothing bigger than 12


yes.... the magic number on both sides....

thanks


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 bobarian 
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So after talking to a couple of my trading buddies from around the world, mostly about the psychology of runners vs all in all out scalping, I think the time has come to turn loose the runner.

My reasons:

1. I have decent entries most of the time.
2. Most of those are worth more than ten
3. I need a very high win rate to make money at a 1:1 RR. I'm not that good yet.
4. Being in a runner eliminates the need to constantly look for new entries thereby reducing over trading issues.
5. One runner makes up for a lot of losers.
6. I'm tired of analyzing the chart bar by bar for entries. Now I will focus on exits. This should reduce my decision fatigue issue.
7. Crude is both a cruel and loving mistress. When you play her right, she rewards you extremely well. When you play her wrong, her punishment is swift and ruthless. Runners reduce my exposure to punishment.


Potential problems.

1. News. Often times the move happens just as news comes out. I no longer feel it necessary to be flat for some of the news events. But NFP, Inventory, Housing, FOMC are the major ones I can think of at the moment I will be flat for.
2. The psychology of having a few break evens to every winner.
3. The extra work of looking for reasonable targets.
4. Patience to hold to desired target. I hope taking off part of the position early will help and allow me to manage the remainder with a degree of rational thought that an all in all out position seems to deprive me of.

I'm sure there are other considerations to think about but for now, this is it.

A very important topic! Something we all struggle with, no doubt.I am almost reluctant to add, but, here it goes.Ive been following your trading everyday, and just a few weeks ago, you were really rolling, in the zone.I remember 50, 60, and maybe even 70 tick days.What is different now?I think its simple....The market.When the market changes, it would surprise me, if our p@l didnt change.We adjust, and try to trade smart, and learn from mistakes.What works today, might not work tomorrow, we all know that.So, we devise a method, to make good$ in good days(weeks, months), that will also keep us relatively safe on bad days.I believe, the cycle that were in now, is a little different than a month ago.It seems to me, youre being tested , and im sure the urge to change something, is probably very strong.....So, what to change?Well, we could change charts, indicators, atm strategies, sl vs target, # of contracts, etc.....the list goes on................The cl is putting pressure on you, to change a method that ultimately, by the end of each month, has been successful.Yep, the cl.You worked very hard to get to this level, and its just another test.IMHO, i believe, you should keep it simple.Keep track of all your trades, and decide on a hard target.If you are getting out early, make a mental choice,not to.
..........You are putting alot of pressure on yourself, and that typically isnt the best choice.Here ius an idea...Try simming next week(what???!!!)take your 6 to 10 entries a day, and just let them play out,and by the end of the week, see what you see.Ultimately, if yourr entries are good, its just a numbers game......................one last thought.As far as changes go, we all know how they typically go.Believe in the method that got you here, and let it go.Imho, if youre going to make a change like adding a contract, youve just doubled your risk.Wouldnt it feel better, if the decision to double your risk, was based on very solid trading,and not from exasperation?Now that might be too strong a word, but when you are ready to go to 2 contracts, you should be excited and confident.Besides , youve allready demonstated, that you can do quite well with 1.And will avoid the possibility of a full stop out day x2.All this, is just my opinion, and ive probably said too much...we all need to find our own way...I think you will

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 PandaWarrior 
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Today is simply an experiment....and I suspect I will take @bobarian advice and sim next week. I will make that decision over the weekend but overall I am happy with the net result.....

It could have been better managed to be sure, and I could have done a better job with my entries I think but it turned out well. To be sure, I THINK I could have done the same thing in terms of net profit by being all in all out at 10 ticks, but what the runners did was help make up for stupid trades and I think they will in the future.

I'll have some more thoughts about what I was thinking a bit later on but I am tired now and want to rest for a while and think about the day.....


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 Surly 
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Here's an example of why a mechanical stop system (such as supertrend) often works better FOR ME than discretion... You are likely better than me at choosing a good place to get out so it might not give you as much of a benefit.

I bought CL on a break of bar top and had planned on using the supertrend to tell me when to close. I chickened out when two bars closed down and closed the trade. Obviously this is completely anecdotal but supertrend usually does a good job at keeping me in trades until they stop working...

I closed at about 109.60 and the ST would have had me close at 109.75.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Surly View Post
Here's an example of why a mechanical stop system (such as supertrend) often works better FOR ME than discretion... You are likely better than me at choosing a good place to get out so it might not give you as much of a benefit.

I bought CL on a break of bar top and had planned on using the supertrend to tell me when to close. I chickened out when two bars closed down and closed the trade. Obviously this is completely anecdotal but supertrend usually does a good job at keeping me in trades until they stop working...

I closed at about 109.60 and the ST would have had me close at 109.75.

While I understand the supertrend, ( I've used it extensively on range charts and even created a trading method using two of them set to different ATR settings....the idea was to trade when they were in agreement) I am trying to read price action better, set targets based on swings or other S/R. Further, the least indicators I have the better. I am starting to really like clean charts.

My charts get really cluttered throughout the day with trend lines and other markings and adding another item will just make it worse.

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  #554 (permalink)
 worldwary 
Williamsburg, VA
 
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So I keep my average loser pretty constant in terms of ticks, so if i can get my average winner to be 2-3X or even perhaps have a 4-5x winner once in a while, then it should be viable long term.

This may be a more difficult goal than it seems. I've experimented with a similar "runner" strategy but could never get it to work because the risk:reward is inherently skewed.

Let's say that 10 ticks is one unit. If you take a trade with this style, you start with 2 contracts. Each time you are stopped out for 10 ticks, you therefore lose 2 units. Your average winner will need to be substantially larger than 2 units to be profitable long term.

The problem is that the successful runner trades will be larger than two units, but the average may be surprisingly lower. It depends on how often you take a small win, then break even or take a loss on the second contract. In practice I've tended to find that all my losers are 2 units while half or more of my winners are 1 unit. The math works against you if that's the case.

Then it's doubly exasperating when you get a good runner to work, but then realize that since this was effectively a half sized trade it doesn't help as much as it feels like it should. One 60 tick runner for instance only offsets three ten tick losers.

The weak link in the chain in my opinion is the small target on the first contract. The larger you can make the first target, the better off you'll be. A 20 tick first target might be a starting point if the stop is 10 ticks. Just my experience anyway, but I agree with whoever posted earlier that you should test this out in sim first. Good luck!

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 PandaWarrior 
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worldwary View Post
This may be a more difficult goal than it seems. I've experimented with a similar "runner" strategy but could never get it to work because the risk:reward is inherently skewed.

Let's say that 10 ticks is one unit. If you take a trade with this style, you start with 2 contracts. Each time you are stopped out for 10 ticks, you therefore lose 2 units. Your average winner will need to be substantially larger than 2 units to be profitable long term.

The problem is that the successful runner trades will be larger than two units, but the average may be surprisingly lower. It depends on how often you take a small win, then break even or take a loss on the second contract. In practice I've tended to find that all my losers are 2 units while half or more of my winners are 1 unit. The math works against you if that's the case.

Then it's doubly exasperating when you get a good runner to work, but then realize that since this was effectively a half sized trade it doesn't help as much as it feels like it should. One 60 tick runner for instance only offsets three ten tick losers.

The weak link in the chain in my opinion is the small target on the first contract. The larger you can make the first target, the better off you'll be. A 20 tick first target might be a starting point if the stop is 10 ticks. Just my experience anyway, but I agree with whoever posted earlier that you should test this out in sim first. Good luck!

The math is definitely in favor of all in all out with whatever target you choose. But the emotions are against that. After reading your post earlier today, I started thinking about scaling in as opposed to scaling out. I like that idea more but again, due to the intense emotional desire to be risk free early in a trade, scaling out makes more sense emotionally.

Now @tigertrader will say that this not doing what is in my own best interest and he is probably right.....however, it felt good on Friday do it like that and I will give it a serious run before I pass judgement. I have used runners before and to be honest, I did well with it but gave it up when I thought I could make the same money scalping AIAO......but over the last few months, I've discovered I am only slightly better than break even scalping. This could be a patience issue, a method issue or something else I am not aware of.

So if I can make the same money with runners as I can with scalping but reduce the number of entries and therefore the number of times I place myself at risk of being wrong, i think thats a good thing...

I guess we will see next week.

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 PandaWarrior 
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worldwary View Post
This may be a more difficult goal than it seems. I've experimented with a similar "runner" strategy but could never get it to work because the risk:reward is inherently skewed.

Let's say that 10 ticks is one unit. If you take a trade with this style, you start with 2 contracts. Each time you are stopped out for 10 ticks, you therefore lose 2 units. Your average winner will need to be substantially larger than 2 units to be profitable long term.

The problem is that the successful runner trades will be larger than two units, but the average may be surprisingly lower. It depends on how often you take a small win, then break even or take a loss on the second contract. In practice I've tended to find that all my losers are 2 units while half or more of my winners are 1 unit. The math works against you if that's the case.

Then it's doubly exasperating when you get a good runner to work, but then realize that since this was effectively a half sized trade it doesn't help as much as it feels like it should. One 60 tick runner for instance only offsets three ten tick losers.

The weak link in the chain in my opinion is the small target on the first contract. The larger you can make the first target, the better off you'll be. A 20 tick first target might be a starting point if the stop is 10 ticks. Just my experience anyway, but I agree with whoever posted earlier that you should test this out in sim first. Good luck!

I totally get what you are saying here. I've had this conversation with myself and with my trading buddies more than once.

However, what you said about a 60 tick winner only offsets three ten tick losers is important. It does in fact, offset those losers.....you buy yourself three losers with one winner vs every stop out needing two winners to be net +10 units.

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 bobarian 
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here is an interesting thought.Lets say we have a takable entry , and the swing gives us a 15 tick sl.Now , the trade goes against us.Lets say the swing is a decent sup or res, that we believe should hold.Now the trade is 3 ticks from stopping us.Does it make sense to take a cheap add here?The 2nd contract will have a 3 tick risk, as we will observe the stop, and not move it.When a trade goes against me, and gets close to my sl, i go into damage control mode.Typically, we will get a bounce, before price breaks down, and this could be a simple way to just get a few ticks(say, 6 or 7), before itstops us out.Sometimes , the swing pivot will hold, and , the original trade works, and we got those extra ticks, at a much better value...or, the trade fails all together, and the 2nd entry is not a full stop.Just a thought..

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 tderrick 
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bobarian View Post
here is an interesting thought.Lets say we have a takable entry , and the swing gives us a 15 tick sl.Now , the trade goes against us.Lets say the swing is a decent sup or res, that we believe should hold.Now the trade is 3 ticks from stopping us.Does it make sense to take a cheap add here?The 2nd contract will have a 3 tick risk, as we will observe the stop, and not move it.When a trade goes against me, and gets close to my sl, i go into damage control mode.Typically, we will get a bounce, before price breaks down, and this could be a simple way to just get a few ticks(say, 6 or 7), before itstops us out.Sometimes , the swing pivot will hold, and , the original trade works, and we got those extra ticks, at a much better value...or, the trade fails all together, and the 2nd entry is not a full stop.Just a thought..



Wow... balls of steel... but, brilliant!!! I'll try it


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 cory 
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PandaWarrior View Post
The math is definitely in favor of all in all out with whatever target you choose.....

That was what I read long time ago. A trader after many years of trading and many permutations came to that conclusion.

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 bobarian 
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cory View Post
That was what I read long time ago. A trader after many years of trading and many permutations came to that conclusion.

i agree with that..and the good thing, is we can pick a target that we feel should be a realistic reliable target.In the past, i recall you would typically go for 16.Now, it seems more like 10...whatever, it doesnt matter.The premise, is to take 4-8 high probability entries(that you are most confident in)and take your shot...With that said, the work really is done.Now, if you average 20 to 40 ticks with this a day, that is fine....down the road, when youre happy with the results, and the consistency is there, set aside say,$2000.At that point, go to 2 contracts , and dont change a thing...and so on.This eliminates the mental baggage of caring about runners.If we knew when the runners were going to happen, we would all be rich...I dont know when runners are going to happen.If you should have a setback and draw down 2k, go back to 1 contract and start over.When i see Al Brooks, Mack from Pat, and others looking for 4 ticks on the es(a whole different animal)it tells me 2 things..First, they want winners.2nd, they trade big size...and if youre trading 3 contracts on the cl and you want to let the 3rd contract go, no biggie...But im willing to bet, that your dependable paycheck will be from your tried and true method, and a runner here and there will just be a nice gift.As the cl changes through cycles, you might find that it is giving 10-16 consistently, or 8-10, or whatever.We all know if we keep changing atm strategies, goals, sl, etc, we typically get frustrated...So i say, end the frustration, and simplify.And decide what $ amount makes you happy.I think your method has done well for you, and also kept you safe.The cl is trying to get you to change that.( i really believe this)so i say, pick a target/sl, and stick to your guns...the month end is the ultimate answer...we wont be profitable every day, and , thats fine..we cant beat ourselves up too much, because its not productive.I really believe if you do this, you will be less attached to outcomes, and just work ...and if you havent allready, find a way to relax outside of trading..I find the answers to our biggest questions tend to be realized when we are away from the computer, and not stressed.Its all mental, and we know that..

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 worldwary 
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The math is definitely in favor of all in all out with whatever target you choose. But the emotions are against that. After reading your post earlier today, I started thinking about scaling in as opposed to scaling out. I like that idea more but again, due to the intense emotional desire to be risk free early in a trade, scaling out makes more sense emotionally.

...So if I can make the same money with runners as I can with scalping but reduce the number of entries and therefore the number of times I place myself at risk of being wrong, i think thats a good thing...

I am not opposed to scaling in and out as a general matter. The only thing I'd caution about is inadvertently creating a system that feels better psychologically but is in fact designed to lose.

I think this is an area where backtesting can give you a better sense of what you might expect, especially if you're careful to test periods when your usual scalping approach was profitable as well as periods when the scalping approach didn't work so well. Have you conducted much backtesting yet?

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 bluemele 
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worldwary View Post
I am not opposed to scaling in and out as a general matter. The only thing I'd caution about is inadvertently creating a system that feels better psychologically but is in fact designed to lose.

I think this is an area where backtesting can give you a better sense of what you might expect, especially if you're careful to test periods when your usual scalping approach was profitable as well as periods when the scalping approach didn't work so well. Have you conducted much backtesting yet?

Here here...

Visual backtesting is ultra-importante in my opinion.

The issues that I have to becoming consistently profitable is that market conditions change. What range(s) were working will update, change and mutate into something that could either work better or not work at all. It is up to the trader to decide to mutate and how.

I do not believe scaling out is a viable option for profitability but it sure feels better. It all comes down to the stats win ratio %, MFE, MAE etc...

I wish you good fortune no matter what!

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 Private Banker 
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bobarian View Post
i agree with that..and the good thing, is we can pick a target that we feel should be a realistic reliable target.In the past, i recall you would typically go for 16.Now, it seems more like 10...whatever, it doesnt matter.The premise, is to take 4-8 high probability entries(that you are most confident in)and take your shot...With that said, the work really is done.Now, if you average 20 to 40 ticks with this a day, that is fine....down the road, when youre happy with the results, and the consistency is there, set aside say,$2000.At that point, go to 2 contracts , and dont change a thing...and so on.This eliminates the mental baggage of caring about runners.If we knew when the runners were going to happen, we would all be rich...I dont know when runners are going to happen.If you should have a setback and draw down 2k, go back to 1 contract and start over.When i see Al Brooks, Mack from Pat, and others looking for 4 ticks on the es(a whole different animal)it tells me 2 things..First, they want winners.2nd, they trade big size...and if youre trading 3 contracts on the cl and you want to let the 3rd contract go, no biggie...But im willing to bet, that your dependable paycheck will be from your tried and true method, and a runner here and there will just be a nice gift.As the cl changes through cycles, you might find that it is giving 10-16 consistently, or 8-10, or whatever.We all know if we keep changing atm strategies, goals, sl, etc, we typically get frustrated...So i say, end the frustration, and simplify.And decide what $ amount makes you happy.I think your method has done well for you, and also kept you safe.The cl is trying to get you to change that.( i really believe this)so i say, pick a target/sl, and stick to your guns...the month end is the ultimate answer...we wont be profitable every day, and , thats fine..we cant beat ourselves up too much, because its not productive.I really believe if you do this, you will be less attached to outcomes, and just work ...and if you havent allready, find a way to relax outside of trading..I find the answers to our biggest questions tend to be realized when we are away from the computer, and not stressed.Its all mental, and we know that..

As an avid CL trader, I'm a firm believer in utilizing a trailing stop. CL as I'm sure you know, will run like crazy. If you're having difficulty identifying where the runners will be, continue to educate yourself on how and where these moves originate from. I'd much rather take 1 - 3 trades per day max than multiple scalp trades. With every trade you take, you're assuming additional risk and transaction costs. With scalping, you can end up having multiple losers in a row which is obviously an account/confidence crusher. Your back will always be against the wall scalping this market. There's no game plan in scalping CL other than your entry criteria. The problem with this is you're ignoring the big picture market context and opportunity. CL usually provides 1 - 3 good swings throughout the day and I feel it is meant to be traded vs. scalped. Over time and experience, you'll learn to be in tune with those entry areas. Sure, all in all out sounds great on paper/calculator but what's your winning percentage and your R:R? Taking a calculated entry based on the big picture and seeing it through just makes more sense IMO. If you're wrong, obviously the context is/has changed and you would then adjust your game plan accordingly.

If you're starting with a smaller account however, building your trading system makes sense which means creating a target based strategy until you have enough equity to allow for several scale out areas while having a runner. So maybe start off with 1 target. As your account grows, add additional contracts and another target area. And then finally add more contracts which will serve as your trailing stop. Your entries should still be based on the market's context vs. trading the noise. Sure, you'll be limiting the number of trades per day but the idea would be is to learn good entries and habits. Trading is not a race, it truly is a marathon. Of course this is just my opinion but I've been trading CL long enough to have experienced both philosophies.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Private Banker View Post
As an avid CL trader, I'm a firm believer in utilizing a trailing stop. CL as I'm sure you know, will run like crazy. If you're having difficulty identifying where the runners will be, continue to educate yourself on how and where these moves originate from. I'd much rather take 1 - 3 trades per day max than multiple scalp trades. With every trade you take, you're assuming additional risk and transaction costs. With scalping, you can end up having multiple losers in a row which is obviously an account/confidence crusher. Your back will always be against the wall scalping this market. There's no game plan in scalping CL other than your entry criteria. The problem with this is you're ignoring the big picture market context and opportunity. CL usually provides 1 - 3 good swings throughout the day and I feel it is meant to be traded vs. scalped. Over time and experience, you'll learn to be in tune with those entry areas. Sure, all in all out sounds great on paper/calculator but what's your winning percentage and your R:R? Taking a calculated entry based on the big picture and seeing it through just makes more sense IMO. If you're wrong, obviously the context is/has changed and you would then adjust your game plan accordingly.

If you're starting with a smaller account however, building your trading system makes sense which means creating a target based strategy until you have enough equity to allow for several scale out areas while having a runner. So maybe start off with 1 target. As your account grows, add additional contracts and another target area. And then finally add more contracts which will serve as your trailing stop. Your entries should still be based on the market's context vs. trading the noise. Sure, you'll be limiting the number of trades per day but the idea would be is to learn good entries and habits. Trading is not a race, it truly is a marathon. Of course this is just my opinion but I've been trading CL long enough to have experienced both philosophies.

I to am leaning toward fewer trades per day. It just seems reasonable to expect 1-3 good swings and trade it expecting to see a swing of 30-100 ticks, try to squeeze as much out of it as I can and let it go after that.

I know this is an area of intense debate and I can argue both sides just as well as the next guy. A funny thing happened over the last couple weeks....

One of my trading buddies works for an energy trading firm but not in the role of trader...more of an analyst/risk manager guy....anyway, he was telling me about how the guys in the firm trade. They are all in all out and often wrong. But they can't see the enormity of how wrong they are and how frequently they are. They won't stop out. But as a risk manager, he can see the equity curves, helps them hedge their out right positions with options, and in general can make far more rational decisions about their trades than they can.....

The same is often true of us individual retail traders. We can't make rational decisions about the trade once we are in it. Unless there is no pressure....and risk off early in the trade with at least some of the position is one way to provide a way to think rationally about the remaining position/s.

I dont think anyone would argue against entering with a position and holding it for whatever comes....the math works out better in the long run...but nearly all successful traders I've ever read about take risk off at some point and let the rest run with the house money so to speak.

I want to join the ranks of the successful so I think I'll start doing what they do.....

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 tderrick 
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I to am leaning toward fewer trades per day. It just seems reasonable to expect 1-3 good swings and trade it expecting to see a swing of 30-100 ticks, try to squeeze as much out of it as I can and let it go after that.

I know this is an area of intense debate and I can argue both sides just as well as the next guy. A funny thing happened over the last couple weeks....

One of my trading buddies works for an energy trading firm but not in the role of trader...more of an analyst/risk manager guy....anyway, he was telling me about how the guys in the firm trade. They are all in all out and often wrong. But they can't see the enormity of how wrong they are and how frequently they are. They won't stop out. But as a risk manager, he can see the equity curves, helps them hedge their out right positions with options, and in general can make far more rational decisions about their trades than they can.....

The same is often true of us individual retail traders. We can't make rational decisions about the trade once we are in it. Unless there is no pressure....and risk off early in the trade with at least some of the position is one way to provide a way to think rationally about the remaining position/s.

I dont think anyone would argue against entering with a position and holding it for whatever comes....the math works out better in the long run...but nearly all successful traders I've ever read about take risk off at some point and let the rest run with the house money so to speak.

I want to join the ranks of the successful so I think I'll start doing what they do.....

I've been practicing with two cars all weekend... it's time.


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 PandaWarrior 
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I've been practicing with two cars all weekend... it's time.

I think at least two is the best choice.....three if one can handle it....The third one is the moon shot.....if we can hold it that long.....some one I read, I think it was Mark Douglas said that one can often make as much on the runner as on the first two positions combined......

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 Superdoug3 
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PW - I like Ur chart capture software, particularly the ability to easily add comments, different arrows etc. I use Jing as BM suggested, but find it a bit limited. What is the name of the chart capture S/W that you use?

 
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 PandaWarrior 
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Superdoug3 View Post
PW - I like Ur chart capture software, particularly the ability to easily add comments, different arrows etc. I use Jing as BM suggested, but find it a bit limited. What is the name of the chart capture S/W that you use?


I use Jing for chart capture as well as larger arrows and text. The aqua text is internal ninja function. You can change the font and color.....

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 PandaWarrior 
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I had a good day today. Missed the first run up by not being at the computer...much to early for me....I passed on the reentry trades and just waited. I got a continuation entry, got filled on the first position and after some backing and filling, got out at BE.

Next trade was passed on due to larger risk. I am ok with that even though it worked perfectly....sigh.....

Next trade was basically the same as the first trade.....backing and filling and a BE.

Third trade was an on purpose scalp....

Fourth trade was a sucker punch. I figured it would break the wedge to the upside, it did and I got taken out.

Once that happened, I figured it was short and so waited for a break of support and trendlines and got my ticks.

Ended +50 ticks and pretty happy about it. There was a long that I passed on due to me wanting a pull back to the MA stack but I never got it. Had I taken it, I may have had a 100 tick day.....but we will never know since I passed.


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 bobarian 
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I had a good day today. Missed the first run up by not being at the computer...much to early for me....I passed on the reentry trades and just waited. I got a continuation entry, got filled on the first position and after some backing and filling, got out at BE.

Next trade was passed on due to larger risk. I am ok with that even though it worked perfectly....sigh.....

Next trade was basically the same as the first trade.....backing and filling and a BE.

Third trade was an on purpose scalp....

Fourth trade was a sucker punch. I figured it would break the wedge to the upside, it did and I got taken out.

Once that happened, I figured it was short and so waited for a break of support and trendlines and got my ticks.

Ended +50 ticks and pretty happy about it. There was a long that I passed on due to me wanting a pull back to the MA stack but I never got it. Had I taken it, I may have had a 100 tick day.....but we will never know since I passed.


nice,very nice!

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 PandaWarrior 
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Didn't have time to post yesterday....it was a complete flop anyway...

I had a hard day today. It was perfect for runners and I had the runners on but ones I had on went nowhere. The trades i could not take due to risk size were the runners. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Thats how I feel today.

After commissions, I am down $40. Not to bad after a very frustrating day.

My wife hit the roof when I told her I couldn't take the runners due to risk. She said "WTH, if you know they are gonna be winners, take the trade". I tried to explain about money management. She didn't care. To her, it was missed opportunity. I tried to explain even though I "knew" they were gonna be winners, you never really KNOW.....and for that reason you must pass on the ones where the risk is to high.

This is funny in a way because in 'real" life, the one where you take risks you know are to big but you think there is a reasonable probability of winning, you take them anyway......thats what I've done all my life. Some win and some lose but overall, I've won.......I guess in trading you take them anyway if you think you have a really good shot of winning.....and hold your breath until you do......

I know the arguments about using a fixed stop on the trade and if you get hit, you get hit.....but in reality, that is asking for it in my opinion.

Anyway, my chart mark up tells the story better than I can...


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 kalalex 
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Brian,

First, I'd like to say "thank you".
I've been meaning to post this for quite some time since I read all 3 threads of your journals to this last post.
Quite inspiring for me because I went through similar situations,,,even the small account.

Anyway the reason I decided to write in today is that after reading the last post of yours I wanted to comment with what Al Brooks keeps saying.

Most of time when there's a setup he says "this is good for scalp but risky for swing trade"
I still can't figure it out,,,,and in that you are way ahead of me.
Anyways, Brooks does use fixed stop for scalp and market based stop which is usually bigger for swing trade most of time. If it's too big he scales down. I don't have that option because I operate single car still.

I began trading with Brooks method about 18 months ago and it was too hard for me and naturally drifted away from it to indicator based method but after finishing your journals I went back to his method.

This time it's much clearer and I think it's because of your journals,,,,and I'm doing way better than when I started.

If you haven't done so I recommend his book (I only read the first one that people say very difficult go through) only because I think there's lots of common ground the way you read the chart and his way.

If you want I have digital copy also that I downloaded somewhere.

PS. You might have read it already but Rule 1 & 2 from Phantom of Pits article would also help I assume. I could understand those rules but couldn't not adapt them especially Rule 2 at my newb stage yet.

I hope I'm not stepping on your toes by these comments. I only want to see you get there so I can benefit also if you know what I mean.

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 PandaWarrior 
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kalalex View Post
Brian,

First, I'd like to say "thank you".
I've been meaning to post this for quite some time since I read all 3 threads of your journals to this last post.
Quite inspiring for me because I went through similar situations,,,even the small account.

Anyway the reason I decided to write in today is that after reading the last post of yours I wanted to comment with what Al Brooks keeps saying.

Most of time when there's a setup he says "this is good for scalp but risky for swing trade"
I still can't figure it out,,,,and in that you are way ahead of me.
Anyways, Brooks does use fixed stop for scalp and market based stop which is usually bigger for swing trade most of time. If it's too big he scales down. I don't have that option because I operate single car still.

I began trading with Brooks method about 18 months ago and it was too hard for me and naturally drifted away from it to indicator based method but after finishing your journals I went back to his method.

This time it's much clearer and I think it's because of your journals,,,,and I'm doing way better than when I started.

If you haven't done so I recommend his book (I only read the first one that people say very difficult go through) only because I think there's lots of common ground the way you read the chart and his way.

If you want I have digital copy also that I downloaded somewhere.

PS. You might have read it already but Rule 1 & 2 from Phantom of Pits article would also help I assume. I could understand those rules but couldn't not adapt them especially Rule 2 at my newb stage yet.

I hope I'm not stepping on your toes by these comments. I only want to see you get there so I can benefit also if you know what I mean.

I'm glad you've enjoyed the journals...its been a tough journey to be sure.

I made the decision today to scale down and take the trade anyway if the risk is to large for more than 1 lot....and set my targets at least 1:1...30 tick stop equals at least a 30 tick target.....if there is less room than that in the trade, don't take it.

I have read Al Brooks book....or should I say I suffered through it. I found it incomprehensible. And I am an excellent reader that does not easily loose track of the big ideas in books.....I read several hundred words a minute when I read for pleasure and I can read over 1000 WPM if I need to...slow by true speed reader standards but far more than most people......Al's book slowed me down to probably less than 100 WPM....very trying for me... I got bored really fast. Perhaps I'll give it another go.....

I would like a copy of the Phantom of the Pit....I've never heard of this article before....please share if you can....

Lastly, I find it incredible that your trading improved after reading my stuff.....I suppose you could just do the opposite of me and do well... But seriously, however your improvement happened, I am truly happy for you....may your good fortune continue indefinitely....

Another trader I know says "Every trade starts as a scalp". By that I believe he scales out of the trade early to remove risk and lets a runner go until he reaches a predetermined target or he gets a counter signal.....That is the skill level I want to get to.....

If I remember correctly, Al Brooks defines a scalp as 4 ticks on ES. Four ticks on 100 lots is a big deal....and on ES, you can scalp 100 lots. On CL, not so much, you can but the slippage will put your fills all over the place.

I think if I can get over the stop size, I'd like to move to the 5M chart. There's less noise, the entries SEEM to be clearer and the targets on CL are much larger.....the one drawback I can see is continuation entries on big bar moves. CL can produce 100 tick bars during periods of high volatility but if the entry occurs at a news event like it did today, then you can get left behind if you have to be flat for news but can get in just after a few 1M bars have formed. I suppose one could enter on a 1M chart during those periods......but use the 5M for stop and target guidance. Something to think about.

Here's to a future filled with profitable learning.....

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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iPlayGames
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hello, PandaWarrior. I believe this is the book Kalalex mentioned to you. I happen to have it on my computer and I think it is not copy right protected.

this book reads a lot easier than Al Brooks` Reading Price Action Bar by Bar, since it is in a conversational style between 2 friends. but this is more a trade management book, it focuses on what to do after entry, it does not say much about how to enter the trades.

for entering trades, I`d recommend Mr Brooks` other three books. he rewrote that Bar by Bar book and it turned into a much better written 3 book volume. you can find excerpts of them at Google Books.

your journal and Mr Brooks` books turned me into a scalper. I tried to swing trade a number of contracts. it worked very well on trend days, but I always gave back the profits in sideways market. your journal showed me that it was possible to scalp successfully, and Mr Brooks` books showed me how to do it.

have you tried to trade Gold and DAX instead of CL? I have found them a lot more energetic than CL, and profit targets are much easier met. I practice with Gold for the Asian session, and then concentrate on DAX when european market opens.

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 Cloudy 
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I like that part in the book where he shouts back to the other traders in the pit , "Take your losses!", in context with that particular story.

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iPlayGames
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Cloudy View Post
I like that part in the book where he shouts back to the other traders in the pit , "Take your losses!", in context with that particular story.

yeah, me too. though I have no problem taking my losses, my problem is that I take them too often

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 kalalex 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I'm glad you've enjoyed the journals...its been a tough journey to be sure.

I made the decision today to scale down and take the trade anyway if the risk is to large for more than 1 lot....and set my targets at least 1:1...30 tick stop equals at least a 30 tick target.....if there is less room than that in the trade, don't take it.

I have read Al Brooks book....or should I say I suffered through it. I found it incomprehensible. And I am an excellent reader that does not easily loose track of the big ideas in books.....I read several hundred words a minute when I read for pleasure and I can read over 1000 WPM if I need to...slow by true speed reader standards but far more than most people......Al's book slowed me down to probably less than 100 WPM....very trying for me... I got bored really fast. Perhaps I'll give it another go.....

I would like a copy of the Phantom of the Pit....I've never heard of this article before....please share if you can....

Lastly, I find it incredible that your trading improved after reading my stuff.....I suppose you could just do the opposite of me and do well... But seriously, however your improvement happened, I am truly happy for you....may your good fortune continue indefinitely....

Another trader I know says "Every trade starts as a scalp". By that I believe he scales out of the trade early to remove risk and lets a runner go until he reaches a predetermined target or he gets a counter signal.....That is the skill level I want to get to.....

If I remember correctly, Al Brooks defines a scalp as 4 ticks on ES. Four ticks on 100 lots is a big deal....and on ES, you can scalp 100 lots. On CL, not so much, you can but the slippage will put your fills all over the place.

I think if I can get over the stop size, I'd like to move to the 5M chart. There's less noise, the entries SEEM to be clearer and the targets on CL are much larger.....the one drawback I can see is continuation entries on big bar moves. CL can produce 100 tick bars during periods of high volatility but if the entry occurs at a news event like it did today, then you can get left behind if you have to be flat for news but can get in just after a few 1M bars have formed. I suppose one could enter on a 1M chart during those periods......but use the 5M for stop and target guidance. Something to think about.

Here's to a future filled with profitable learning.....

Cheers.

Like I said your journal is inspiring.
I read them like I was reading a novel.

Brooks scalp is 1pt or 2 pts depending on the "context" and he sometimes trades on 2 or 3 min charts too when the market's volatile and during open.

Phantom's Rule 2 maybe a different approach from yours but if you consider swing trading I THINK it's the way to go,,,again my opinion and you could tell us your opinion after reading.

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 PandaWarrior 
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iPlayGames View Post
hello, PandaWarrior. I believe this is the book Kalalex mentioned to you. I happen to have it on my computer and I think it is not copy right protected.

this book reads a lot easier than Al Brooks` Reading Price Action Bar by Bar, since it is in a conversational style between 2 friends. but this is more a trade management book, it focuses on what to do after entry, it does not say much about how to enter the trades.

for entering trades, I`d recommend Mr Brooks` other three books. he rewrote that Bar by Bar book and it turned into a much better written 3 book volume. you can find excerpts of them at Google Books.

your journal and Mr Brooks` books turned me into a scalper. I tried to swing trade a number of contracts. it worked very well on trend days, but I always gave back the profits in sideways market. your journal showed me that it was possible to scalp successfully, and Mr Brooks` books showed me how to do it.

have you tried to trade Gold and DAX instead of CL? I have found them a lot more energetic than CL, and profit targets are much easier met. I practice with Gold for the Asian session, and then concentrate on DAX when european market opens.

First, thanks so much for the book...I will read it this week...

Second, I'm pleased you have found success as a scalper....I too think it is possible to make money as a scalper long term but it does require a high win rate......

And third, I have looked at GL and the Dax. The Dax is to early for me and for some reason I like crude....I can look GL again perhaps over the weekend.

Thanks again for reading the journal and posting the article.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 tderrick 
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kalalex View Post
Brian,


If you haven't done so I recommend his book (I only read the first one that people say very difficult go through) only because I think there's lots of common ground the way you read the chart and his way.

If you want I have digital copy also that I downloaded somewhere.

PS. You might have read it already but Rule 1 & 2 from Phantom of Pits article would also help I assume. I could understand those rules but couldn't not adapt them especially Rule 2 at my newb stage yet.

I hope I'm not stepping on your toes by these comments. I only want to see you get there so I can benefit also if you know what I mean.


Is that the "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar" Book?

The first one , I think...

I couldn't get through it the first time... I should try again...


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 tderrick 
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tderrick View Post
Is that the "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar" Book?

The first one , I think...

I couldn't get through it the first time... I should try again...


Oh man... If his trilogy collection is a better re-write of his earlier work , I will definitely pick those
up... The first one was unbearable..


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 PandaWarrior 
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Well I traded a lot better than I have and a lot worse than I could have.....

Got lucky with the first trade of the day...I had a runner on but the range was narrow so I just punched out at 10. I kept it as a scalp the rest of the morning until I felt I could get a 20 tick trade on....I got 18 since I took the trade off a tick or two inside the HOD.

Then as a price wandered around the chart, I starting thinking it would go short for a while and it might be a good runner trade. I even had the support area clearly marked and I allowed price action to lull me to sleep...not actually sleeping but not really paying attention either....of course thats when it broke and ran...I got part of it on a reentry but took ten as I saw some support just below the 10-15 tick target area. It did break that level and the provided a pull back to enter on but for some reason i cannot explain, I passed....very poor decision making.....

However, I managed to keep it together and wait....I passed on a couple more but ended the day with +44...

Overall I am not really satisfied with this number. It should have been closer to 100 as there was plenty of opportunity even just scalping for ten.....


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 Cloudy 
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iPlayGames View Post
yeah, me too. though I have no problem taking my losses, my problem is that I take them too often

yes, my main problem is not taking my losses early enough when it's clearly a loser. So in some odd way , while not about one of the main 2 rules in POPs , his story about "take your winnings!" seems to serve as another point about stop management, or maybe it's the 1st rule after all.

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 kalalex 
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tderrick View Post
Oh man... If his trilogy collection is a better re-write of his earlier work , I will definitely pick those
up... The first one was unbearable..

I heard the first one (about Trend) is way better written than "bar by bar".
The other 2,,,,lots of redundancy.

When I read "bar by bar" book I printed all the charts in the book and it helped me a bit too.
There's a separate file with all the charts and they are much bigger and I could annotate, draw lines, mark all the set-up,,,etc.

I'll find the file and try to attach here if under size limit.

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: zip Brooks_Reading Price Charts_Art.zip (31.85 MB, 105 views)
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bwasi
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Nice journal Panda...regarding POP ...even though POP not specifically mentioned 'scalping' I found that Rule 1 is exactly scalping and Rule 2 is exactly trending. Previously I mismatched this and got problems. Correctly applied within context, POP Rules are as good as gold.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I had a decent day today, could have been better but I was somewhat distracted today, sneezed a lot for some reason....could have been the wind was blowing like crazy today and my allergies may have been acting up....was chatting away on skype for some of it and even though I marked the trades in real time, I just didnt feel like taking them.....I was super sleepy this morning as well and kept yawning the entire session.....

Ended the week profitable though and for that I am glad.

Experimenting with some other stuff, you will see some blue triangles that represent some stuff I am looking at.....more later if it works out.

First trade I got lucky, I was early and wrong...but still got my ticks

Second trade I was convinced it would run to the LOD....it did but I needed two trades. I could not hold the first one. I had 25 ticks on it and it pulled back quite a bit and I took it off at +12....same on the third trade....the remainder of the trades I was scalping only as I suspected it would not be worth a runner.

Last trade was me being blind by my long bias at that point, and the fact I needed to get out of the house as I needed to be somewhere and needed to leave RIGHT THEN...so I hurried and got hit without realizing a short was setting up....oh well...still a decent day....20 ticks net after commissions....it could have and should have been much more.


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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I had a decent day today, could have been better but I was somewhat distracted today, sneezed a lot for some reason....could have been the wind was blowing like crazy today and my allergies may have been acting up....was chatting away on skype for some of it and even though I marked the trades in real time, I just didnt feel like taking them.....I was super sleepy this morning as well and kept yawning the entire session.....

Ended the week profitable though and for that I am glad.

Experimenting with some other stuff, you will see some blue triangles that represent some stuff I am looking at.....more later if it works out.

First trade I got lucky, I was early and wrong...but still got my ticks

Second trade I was convinced it would run to the LOD....it did but I needed two trades. I could not hold the first one. I had 25 ticks on it and it pulled back quite a bit and I took it off at +12....same on the third trade....the remainder of the trades I was scalping only as I suspected it would not be worth a runner.

Last trade was me being blind by my long bias at that point, and the fact I needed to get out of the house as I needed to be somewhere and needed to leave RIGHT THEN...so I hurried and got hit without realizing a short was setting up....oh well...still a decent day....20 ticks net after commissions....it could have and should have been much more.

Nice work. Good to see you finish the week on a positve note. Makes for a happy weekend.

Have a good one, PW.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Switched to 5M chart today. +66 ticks....

I am truly exhausted this morning as I slept very little today....so even though I think there are more trades to be had, I am off to take a nap.


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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Switched to 5M chart today. +66 ticks....

I am truly exhausted this morning as I slept very little today....so even though I think there are more trades to be had, I am off to take a nap.


Nice start the week. Terrific results on using th 5 minute. I see you have fewer trades today as well.
Thanks for posting.

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 PandaWarrior 
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4 trades, one was a mistake I was able to get out of at BE, the two 30 tick winners were pretty much text book entry and exits for me and the +10 was a nice entry but for some reason I saw a lot of support along with the fact we had just come down quite a bit from the trend line.....i was worried about stop placement so rather than worry about it, I just took it off at ten.

+70 ticks today.


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 bluemele 
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Now that you are on 5 min, are u keeping with same stops or extending them some?

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
Now that you are on 5 min, are u keeping with same stops or extending them some?


They are dynamic....try to risk only the entry bar if possible. If its a really big bar, I wont enter.

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
4 trades, one was a mistake I was able to get out of at BE, the two 30 tick winners were pretty much text book entry and exits for me and the +10 was a nice entry but for some reason I saw a lot of support along with the fact we had just come down quite a bit from the trend line.....i was worried about stop placement so rather than worry about it, I just took it off at ten.

+70 ticks today.


Nice work today. Area 104.60 -105.00 has been S/R all session.

70 ticks is a very good day.

I remember you saying that 30-50 ticks a day is what you targeted (If memory serves me correctly) With using the 5 minute, and seemingly longer targets, have you revised your count?

Seems like your number of trades is down to, something i recognise when I first switched to the CL. I dont know if that is your experience.

Seems like your are very comfortable with the longer time frame.

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 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Nice work today. Area 104.60 -105.00 has been S/R all session.

70 ticks is a very good day.

I remember you saying that 30-50 ticks a day is what you targeted (If memory serves me correctly) With using the 5 minute, and seemingly longer targets, have you revised your count?

Seems like your number of trades is down to, something i recognise when I first switched to the CL. I dont know if that is your experience.

Seems like your are very comfortable with the longer time frame.

I noticed the swings where I would be getting in were almost always paying 30 ticks. Sometimes more, but even on the crappy days, 30 seemed to be the sweet spot. So 25-30 ticks is the target and at least the last couple of days, I've been pretty comfortable with the 30 tick target.

I estimate there will be 3-6 trades a day IF I sit around and watch it all day long. I am looking for 2-4 normally and I think if I get two 30 tick trades off and perhaps a 10 or 20 tick trade I am doing really good.

Of course there are entries that will pay much more than 30, but 30 seems to be an all around good target.

So, I'll go with it for now.....I am still watching the one minute and may continue to take trades off it but they will be 10-15 tick scalps for the most part.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 kalalex 
Up the Ladder, CA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
4 trades, one was a mistake I was able to get out of at BE, the two 30 tick winners were pretty much text book entry and exits for me and the +10 was a nice entry but for some reason I saw a lot of support along with the fact we had just come down quite a bit from the trend line.....i was worried about stop placement so rather than worry about it, I just took it off at ten.

+70 ticks today.



WTG !!!!

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 Cloudy 
desert CA
 
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Very nice Panda, going from 1min to the 5min swings with the same method. Have you thought about having a second 1min chart for scalping the smaller volatility/volume areas or you're going to just stick to fewer trades now? Thanks.

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  #596 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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-12 today. Was in a fog most of the day, couldnt figure out where price wanted to go. Got frustrated with the large entry bars. In general was out of sync with everything today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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next week, rollover madness begins!

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 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
-12 today. Was in a fog most of the day, couldnt figure out where price wanted to go. Got frustrated with the large entry bars. In general was out of sync with everything today.


This was not you... Sometimes your date is just a real bitch.

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 cory 
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cory View Post
next week, rollover madness begins!

correction: official rollover date is today 3/8/12 not next week let madness begins.

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 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
correction: official rollover date is today 3/8/12 not next week let madness begins.

CL is next week....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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