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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #561 (permalink)
Elite Member
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PandaWarrior View Post
The math is definitely in favor of all in all out with whatever target you choose. But the emotions are against that. After reading your post earlier today, I started thinking about scaling in as opposed to scaling out. I like that idea more but again, due to the intense emotional desire to be risk free early in a trade, scaling out makes more sense emotionally.

...So if I can make the same money with runners as I can with scalping but reduce the number of entries and therefore the number of times I place myself at risk of being wrong, i think thats a good thing...

I am not opposed to scaling in and out as a general matter. The only thing I'd caution about is inadvertently creating a system that feels better psychologically but is in fact designed to lose.

I think this is an area where backtesting can give you a better sense of what you might expect, especially if you're careful to test periods when your usual scalping approach was profitable as well as periods when the scalping approach didn't work so well. Have you conducted much backtesting yet?

-----------------------------------------------------

"If you must forecast, forecast often."

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  #562 (permalink)
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worldwary View Post
I am not opposed to scaling in and out as a general matter. The only thing I'd caution about is inadvertently creating a system that feels better psychologically but is in fact designed to lose.

I think this is an area where backtesting can give you a better sense of what you might expect, especially if you're careful to test periods when your usual scalping approach was profitable as well as periods when the scalping approach didn't work so well. Have you conducted much backtesting yet?

Here here...

Visual backtesting is ultra-importante in my opinion.

The issues that I have to becoming consistently profitable is that market conditions change. What range(s) were working will update, change and mutate into something that could either work better or not work at all. It is up to the trader to decide to mutate and how.

I do not believe scaling out is a viable option for profitability but it sure feels better. It all comes down to the stats win ratio %, MFE, MAE etc...

I wish you good fortune no matter what!

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  #563 (permalink)
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bobarian View Post
i agree with that..and the good thing, is we can pick a target that we feel should be a realistic reliable target.In the past, i recall you would typically go for 16.Now, it seems more like 10...whatever, it doesnt matter.The premise, is to take 4-8 high probability entries(that you are most confident in)and take your shot...With that said, the work really is done.Now, if you average 20 to 40 ticks with this a day, that is fine....down the road, when youre happy with the results, and the consistency is there, set aside say,$2000.At that point, go to 2 contracts , and dont change a thing...and so on.This eliminates the mental baggage of caring about runners.If we knew when the runners were going to happen, we would all be rich...I dont know when runners are going to happen.If you should have a setback and draw down 2k, go back to 1 contract and start over.When i see Al Brooks, Mack from Pat, and others looking for 4 ticks on the es(a whole different animal)it tells me 2 things..First, they want winners.2nd, they trade big size...and if youre trading 3 contracts on the cl and you want to let the 3rd contract go, no biggie...But im willing to bet, that your dependable paycheck will be from your tried and true method, and a runner here and there will just be a nice gift.As the cl changes through cycles, you might find that it is giving 10-16 consistently, or 8-10, or whatever.We all know if we keep changing atm strategies, goals, sl, etc, we typically get frustrated...So i say, end the frustration, and simplify.And decide what $ amount makes you happy.I think your method has done well for you, and also kept you safe.The cl is trying to get you to change that.( i really believe this)so i say, pick a target/sl, and stick to your guns...the month end is the ultimate answer...we wont be profitable every day, and , thats fine..we cant beat ourselves up too much, because its not productive.I really believe if you do this, you will be less attached to outcomes, and just work ...and if you havent allready, find a way to relax outside of trading..I find the answers to our biggest questions tend to be realized when we are away from the computer, and not stressed.Its all mental, and we know that..

As an avid CL trader, I'm a firm believer in utilizing a trailing stop. CL as I'm sure you know, will run like crazy. If you're having difficulty identifying where the runners will be, continue to educate yourself on how and where these moves originate from. I'd much rather take 1 - 3 trades per day max than multiple scalp trades. With every trade you take, you're assuming additional risk and transaction costs. With scalping, you can end up having multiple losers in a row which is obviously an account/confidence crusher. Your back will always be against the wall scalping this market. There's no game plan in scalping CL other than your entry criteria. The problem with this is you're ignoring the big picture market context and opportunity. CL usually provides 1 - 3 good swings throughout the day and I feel it is meant to be traded vs. scalped. Over time and experience, you'll learn to be in tune with those entry areas. Sure, all in all out sounds great on paper/calculator but what's your winning percentage and your R:R? Taking a calculated entry based on the big picture and seeing it through just makes more sense IMO. If you're wrong, obviously the context is/has changed and you would then adjust your game plan accordingly.

If you're starting with a smaller account however, building your trading system makes sense which means creating a target based strategy until you have enough equity to allow for several scale out areas while having a runner. So maybe start off with 1 target. As your account grows, add additional contracts and another target area. And then finally add more contracts which will serve as your trailing stop. Your entries should still be based on the market's context vs. trading the noise. Sure, you'll be limiting the number of trades per day but the idea would be is to learn good entries and habits. Trading is not a race, it truly is a marathon. Of course this is just my opinion but I've been trading CL long enough to have experienced both philosophies.

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  #564 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
As an avid CL trader, I'm a firm believer in utilizing a trailing stop. CL as I'm sure you know, will run like crazy. If you're having difficulty identifying where the runners will be, continue to educate yourself on how and where these moves originate from. I'd much rather take 1 - 3 trades per day max than multiple scalp trades. With every trade you take, you're assuming additional risk and transaction costs. With scalping, you can end up having multiple losers in a row which is obviously an account/confidence crusher. Your back will always be against the wall scalping this market. There's no game plan in scalping CL other than your entry criteria. The problem with this is you're ignoring the big picture market context and opportunity. CL usually provides 1 - 3 good swings throughout the day and I feel it is meant to be traded vs. scalped. Over time and experience, you'll learn to be in tune with those entry areas. Sure, all in all out sounds great on paper/calculator but what's your winning percentage and your R:R? Taking a calculated entry based on the big picture and seeing it through just makes more sense IMO. If you're wrong, obviously the context is/has changed and you would then adjust your game plan accordingly.

If you're starting with a smaller account however, building your trading system makes sense which means creating a target based strategy until you have enough equity to allow for several scale out areas while having a runner. So maybe start off with 1 target. As your account grows, add additional contracts and another target area. And then finally add more contracts which will serve as your trailing stop. Your entries should still be based on the market's context vs. trading the noise. Sure, you'll be limiting the number of trades per day but the idea would be is to learn good entries and habits. Trading is not a race, it truly is a marathon. Of course this is just my opinion but I've been trading CL long enough to have experienced both philosophies.

I to am leaning toward fewer trades per day. It just seems reasonable to expect 1-3 good swings and trade it expecting to see a swing of 30-100 ticks, try to squeeze as much out of it as I can and let it go after that.

I know this is an area of intense debate and I can argue both sides just as well as the next guy. A funny thing happened over the last couple weeks....

One of my trading buddies works for an energy trading firm but not in the role of trader...more of an analyst/risk manager guy....anyway, he was telling me about how the guys in the firm trade. They are all in all out and often wrong. But they can't see the enormity of how wrong they are and how frequently they are. They won't stop out. But as a risk manager, he can see the equity curves, helps them hedge their out right positions with options, and in general can make far more rational decisions about their trades than they can.....

The same is often true of us individual retail traders. We can't make rational decisions about the trade once we are in it. Unless there is no pressure....and risk off early in the trade with at least some of the position is one way to provide a way to think rationally about the remaining position/s.

I dont think anyone would argue against entering with a position and holding it for whatever comes....the math works out better in the long run...but nearly all successful traders I've ever read about take risk off at some point and let the rest run with the house money so to speak.

I want to join the ranks of the successful so I think I'll start doing what they do.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #565 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I to am leaning toward fewer trades per day. It just seems reasonable to expect 1-3 good swings and trade it expecting to see a swing of 30-100 ticks, try to squeeze as much out of it as I can and let it go after that.

I know this is an area of intense debate and I can argue both sides just as well as the next guy. A funny thing happened over the last couple weeks....

One of my trading buddies works for an energy trading firm but not in the role of trader...more of an analyst/risk manager guy....anyway, he was telling me about how the guys in the firm trade. They are all in all out and often wrong. But they can't see the enormity of how wrong they are and how frequently they are. They won't stop out. But as a risk manager, he can see the equity curves, helps them hedge their out right positions with options, and in general can make far more rational decisions about their trades than they can.....

The same is often true of us individual retail traders. We can't make rational decisions about the trade once we are in it. Unless there is no pressure....and risk off early in the trade with at least some of the position is one way to provide a way to think rationally about the remaining position/s.

I dont think anyone would argue against entering with a position and holding it for whatever comes....the math works out better in the long run...but nearly all successful traders I've ever read about take risk off at some point and let the rest run with the house money so to speak.

I want to join the ranks of the successful so I think I'll start doing what they do.....

I've been practicing with two cars all weekend... it's time.


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #566 (permalink)
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tderrick View Post
I've been practicing with two cars all weekend... it's time.

I think at least two is the best choice.....three if one can handle it....The third one is the moon shot.....if we can hold it that long.....some one I read, I think it was Mark Douglas said that one can often make as much on the runner as on the first two positions combined......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #567 (permalink)
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chart capture software

PW - I like Ur chart capture software, particularly the ability to easily add comments, different arrows etc. I use Jing as BM suggested, but find it a bit limited. What is the name of the chart capture S/W that you use?

 
  #568 (permalink)
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Superdoug3 View Post
PW - I like Ur chart capture software, particularly the ability to easily add comments, different arrows etc. I use Jing as BM suggested, but find it a bit limited. What is the name of the chart capture S/W that you use?


I use Jing for chart capture as well as larger arrows and text. The aqua text is internal ninja function. You can change the font and color.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #569 (permalink)
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I had a good day today. Missed the first run up by not being at the computer...much to early for me....I passed on the reentry trades and just waited. I got a continuation entry, got filled on the first position and after some backing and filling, got out at BE.

Next trade was passed on due to larger risk. I am ok with that even though it worked perfectly....sigh.....

Next trade was basically the same as the first trade.....backing and filling and a BE.

Third trade was an on purpose scalp....

Fourth trade was a sucker punch. I figured it would break the wedge to the upside, it did and I got taken out.

Once that happened, I figured it was short and so waited for a break of support and trendlines and got my ticks.

Ended +50 ticks and pretty happy about it. There was a long that I passed on due to me wanting a pull back to the MA stack but I never got it. Had I taken it, I may have had a 100 tick day.....but we will never know since I passed.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #570 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
I had a good day today. Missed the first run up by not being at the computer...much to early for me....I passed on the reentry trades and just waited. I got a continuation entry, got filled on the first position and after some backing and filling, got out at BE.

Next trade was passed on due to larger risk. I am ok with that even though it worked perfectly....sigh.....

Next trade was basically the same as the first trade.....backing and filling and a BE.

Third trade was an on purpose scalp....

Fourth trade was a sucker punch. I figured it would break the wedge to the upside, it did and I got taken out.

Once that happened, I figured it was short and so waited for a break of support and trendlines and got my ticks.

Ended +50 ticks and pretty happy about it. There was a long that I passed on due to me wanting a pull back to the MA stack but I never got it. Had I taken it, I may have had a 100 tick day.....but we will never know since I passed.

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nice,very nice!

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