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One more thing to consider. When you loose with a runner you loose by double the amount. This means that you will need to put more psychological pressure on managing runners to make up for each loser. I suggest you design and test the new methodology well in sim, to discover all the not so obvious aspects.
I think this is the only REAL concern I have, I think though that one runner should make up for any of that.....I've ran numbers and based on my average loser, I should be OK. I dont take trades that require large stops so i pass on several good trades a day just due to risk on the trade. So I keep my average loser pretty constant in terms of ticks, so if i can get my average winner to be 2-3X or even perhaps have a 4-5x winner once in a while, then it should be viable long term.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
I wrestled with this for weeks....so making the decision has been tough. The only thing i am changing is the target.....or at least secondary target....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
PW - I applaud you for stepping into the place between where you are (comfort or relative comfort) and where you want to be (more successful) - this is always the place where growth occurs and where risks are higher.
One way to approach the runner vs. fixed target question is by going back through your last 100 entries and asking how many would have benefited from a trailing stop strategy (you can use a number of methods for staying with trades - trailing stops are just one). I suggest a trailing stop because you can use an objective method (again, many ways to skin this cat) to determine the outcome of the trade. One that I quite frequently use when I have a high conviction target is the supertrend indicator on a tick chart (varying the # of ticks varies the relative risk). I set the indy to 1,3,3 and with CL you might look at a 300 or 350 tick chart. Using an objective indy helps with the emotional difficulty of sticking with a trade outside of your comfort zone (scalping). It also gives you a simple way to analyze how your method would have worked or is working. Finally, it gives you data about how well you are doing at sticking to a plan.
good luck!
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
A very important topic! Something we all struggle with, no doubt.I am almost reluctant to add, but, here it goes.Ive been following your trading everyday, and just a few weeks ago, you were really rolling, in the zone.I remember 50, 60, and maybe even 70 tick days.What is different now?I think its simple....The market.When the market changes, it would surprise me, if our p@l didnt change.We adjust, and try to trade smart, and learn from mistakes.What works today, might not work tomorrow, we all know that.So, we devise a method, to make good$ in good days(weeks, months), that will also keep us relatively safe on bad days.I believe, the cycle that were in now, is a little different than a month ago.It seems to me, youre being tested , and im sure the urge to change something, is probably very strong.....So, what to change?Well, we could change charts, indicators, atm strategies, sl vs target, # of contracts, etc.....the list goes on................The cl is putting pressure on you, to change a method that ultimately, by the end of each month, has been successful.Yep, the cl.You worked very hard to get to this level, and its just another test.IMHO, i believe, you should keep it simple.Keep track of all your trades, and decide on a hard target.If you are getting out early, make a mental choice,not to.
..........You are putting alot of pressure on yourself, and that typically isnt the best choice.Here ius an idea...Try simming next week(what???!!!)take your 6 to 10 entries a day, and just let them play out,and by the end of the week, see what you see.Ultimately, if yourr entries are good, its just a numbers game......................one last thought.As far as changes go, we all know how they typically go.Believe in the method that got you here, and let it go.Imho, if youre going to make a change like adding a contract, youve just doubled your risk.Wouldnt it feel better, if the decision to double your risk, was based on very solid trading,and not from exasperation?Now that might be too strong a word, but when you are ready to go to 2 contracts, you should be excited and confident.Besides , youve allready demonstated, that you can do quite well with 1.And will avoid the possibility of a full stop out day x2.All this, is just my opinion, and ive probably said too much...we all need to find our own way...I think you will
