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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #541 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
Favorite Futures: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
So after talking to a couple of my trading buddies from around the world, mostly about the psychology of runners vs all in all out scalping, I think the time has come to turn loose the runner.

My reasons:

1. I have decent entries most of the time.
2. Most of those are worth more than ten
3. I need a very high win rate to make money at a 1:1 RR. I'm not that good yet.
4. Being in a runner eliminates the need to constantly look for new entries thereby reducing over trading issues.
5. One runner makes up for a lot of losers.
6. I'm tired of analyzing the chart bar by bar for entries. Now I will focus on exits. This should reduce my decision fatigue issue.
7. Crude is both a cruel and loving mistress. When you play her right, she rewards you extremely well. When you play her wrong, her punishment is swift and ruthless. Runners reduce my exposure to punishment.


Potential problems.

1. News. Often times the move happens just as news comes out. I no longer feel it necessary to be flat for some of the news events. But NFP, Inventory, Housing, FOMC are the major ones I can think of at the moment I will be flat for.
2. The psychology of having a few break evens to every winner.
3. The extra work of looking for reasonable targets.
4. Patience to hold to desired target. I hope taking off part of the position early will help and allow me to manage the remainder with a degree of rational thought that an all in all out position seems to deprive me of.

I'm sure there are other considerations to think about but for now, this is it.

One more thing to consider. When you loose with a runner you loose by double the amount. This means that you will need to put more psychological pressure on managing runners to make up for each loser. I suggest you design and test the new methodology well in sim, to discover all the not so obvious aspects.

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  #542 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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monpere View Post
One more thing to consider. When you loose with a runner you loose by double the amount. This means that you will need to put more psychological pressure on managing runners to make up for each loser. I suggest you design and test the new methodology well in sim, to discover all the not so obvious aspects.

I think this is the only REAL concern I have, I think though that one runner should make up for any of that.....I've ran numbers and based on my average loser, I should be OK. I dont take trades that require large stops so i pass on several good trades a day just due to risk on the trade. So I keep my average loser pretty constant in terms of ticks, so if i can get my average winner to be 2-3X or even perhaps have a 4-5x winner once in a while, then it should be viable long term.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #543 (permalink)
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bluemele View Post
You say tomotoe, and I say Tamato....

To me, I would not be changing ANYTHING. If I am consistently profitable and have found a method that meets my consistency requirements then I would stay put and continue to master it. I would then look for another long term setup that might also be an additional setup. Nothing more, nothing less.

Just my opinion on not changing anything.

I wrestled with this for weeks....so making the decision has been tough. The only thing i am changing is the target.....or at least secondary target....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #544 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
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PandaWarrior View Post
I think this is the only REAL concern I have, I think though that one runner should make up for any of that.....I've ran numbers and based on my average loser, I should be OK. I dont take trades that require large stops so i pass on several good trades a day just due to risk on the trade. So I keep my average loser pretty constant in terms of ticks, so if i can get my average winner to be 2-3X or even perhaps have a 4-5x winner once in a while, then it should be viable long term.

It's good to catch up with ole PW...

What is your average SL this days...

hope all is well, my friend...


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #545 (permalink)
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tderrick View Post
It's good to catch up with ole PW...

What is your average SL this days...

hope all is well, my friend...

Nothing bigger than 12

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #546 (permalink)
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Bala, PA, USA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Nothing bigger than 12

How do you determine your stop placement? Do you put it behind your entry bar, behind S/R,... etc

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  #547 (permalink)
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PW - I applaud you for stepping into the place between where you are (comfort or relative comfort) and where you want to be (more successful) - this is always the place where growth occurs and where risks are higher.

One way to approach the runner vs. fixed target question is by going back through your last 100 entries and asking how many would have benefited from a trailing stop strategy (you can use a number of methods for staying with trades - trailing stops are just one). I suggest a trailing stop because you can use an objective method (again, many ways to skin this cat) to determine the outcome of the trade. One that I quite frequently use when I have a high conviction target is the supertrend indicator on a tick chart (varying the # of ticks varies the relative risk). I set the indy to 1,3,3 and with CL you might look at a 300 or 350 tick chart. Using an objective indy helps with the emotional difficulty of sticking with a trade outside of your comfort zone (scalping). It also gives you a simple way to analyze how your method would have worked or is working. Finally, it gives you data about how well you are doing at sticking to a plan.

good luck!

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #548 (permalink)
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In the heat
 
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monpere View Post
How do you determine your stop placement? Do you put it behind your entry bar, behind S/R,... etc

Hopefully both but I have only one, then its the entry bar....so it needs to be 12 or less.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #549 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Nothing bigger than 12


yes.... the magic number on both sides....

thanks


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #550 (permalink)
Market Wizard
whitestone, new york
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
So after talking to a couple of my trading buddies from around the world, mostly about the psychology of runners vs all in all out scalping, I think the time has come to turn loose the runner.

My reasons:

1. I have decent entries most of the time.
2. Most of those are worth more than ten
3. I need a very high win rate to make money at a 1:1 RR. I'm not that good yet.
4. Being in a runner eliminates the need to constantly look for new entries thereby reducing over trading issues.
5. One runner makes up for a lot of losers.
6. I'm tired of analyzing the chart bar by bar for entries. Now I will focus on exits. This should reduce my decision fatigue issue.
7. Crude is both a cruel and loving mistress. When you play her right, she rewards you extremely well. When you play her wrong, her punishment is swift and ruthless. Runners reduce my exposure to punishment.


Potential problems.

1. News. Often times the move happens just as news comes out. I no longer feel it necessary to be flat for some of the news events. But NFP, Inventory, Housing, FOMC are the major ones I can think of at the moment I will be flat for.
2. The psychology of having a few break evens to every winner.
3. The extra work of looking for reasonable targets.
4. Patience to hold to desired target. I hope taking off part of the position early will help and allow me to manage the remainder with a degree of rational thought that an all in all out position seems to deprive me of.

I'm sure there are other considerations to think about but for now, this is it.

A very important topic! Something we all struggle with, no doubt.I am almost reluctant to add, but, here it goes.Ive been following your trading everyday, and just a few weeks ago, you were really rolling, in the zone.I remember 50, 60, and maybe even 70 tick days.What is different now?I think its simple....The market.When the market changes, it would surprise me, if our p@l didnt change.We adjust, and try to trade smart, and learn from mistakes.What works today, might not work tomorrow, we all know that.So, we devise a method, to make good$ in good days(weeks, months), that will also keep us relatively safe on bad days.I believe, the cycle that were in now, is a little different than a month ago.It seems to me, youre being tested , and im sure the urge to change something, is probably very strong.....So, what to change?Well, we could change charts, indicators, atm strategies, sl vs target, # of contracts, etc.....the list goes on................The cl is putting pressure on you, to change a method that ultimately, by the end of each month, has been successful.Yep, the cl.You worked very hard to get to this level, and its just another test.IMHO, i believe, you should keep it simple.Keep track of all your trades, and decide on a hard target.If you are getting out early, make a mental choice,not to.
..........You are putting alot of pressure on yourself, and that typically isnt the best choice.Here ius an idea...Try simming next week(what???!!!)take your 6 to 10 entries a day, and just let them play out,and by the end of the week, see what you see.Ultimately, if yourr entries are good, its just a numbers game......................one last thought.As far as changes go, we all know how they typically go.Believe in the method that got you here, and let it go.Imho, if youre going to make a change like adding a contract, youve just doubled your risk.Wouldnt it feel better, if the decision to double your risk, was based on very solid trading,and not from exasperation?Now that might be too strong a word, but when you are ready to go to 2 contracts, you should be excited and confident.Besides , youve allready demonstated, that you can do quite well with 1.And will avoid the possibility of a full stop out day x2.All this, is just my opinion, and ive probably said too much...we all need to find our own way...I think you will

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