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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #301 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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With an ES DOM and chart, a trade on with target and stop placed. All done manually although there is supposed to be a way to place it all automatically.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #302 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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After my honey do's were done this morning, sat down, opened ES 16,5 and 1M charts with the ichi cloud, since this is a demo account, I don't have the front month for CL so the March ES contract will have to do. Pic is with a trade in progress....keep in mind, not really looking to make money here, just testing stuff out. I'll move the making money part next week.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #303 (permalink)
 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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hey Pandawarrior, will resume trading the cl in january?

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  #304 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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bobarian View Post
hey Pandawarrior, will resume trading the cl in january?


The ninth....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #305 (permalink)
 Superdoug3 
Vernon, BC, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker: Zaner Group (Transact)
Trading: ES
 
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Interesting that you are exploring Ichimoku indicator.
Ichimoku is mostly used by Forex traders and with MT4 platform - but Manesh Patel uses it for all markets
There are several good MT4 (and now MT5) tools available for free - see Ichimoku Dashboard, and Ichi360

I first found Ichimoku on Forextestor. This is a very good product for a very reasonable price with good daily historical data available for free. I wrote some backtesting strategies for it.

Then I went to Sierra Charts, which Big Mike uses too. Ichimoku is also there only you need to access the 5 lines as seperate indicators and create what is called a Study. Sierra Charts has a 1 month demo, but this is not enough time to really get to know it. I developed some backtesting strategies using Sierra Chart spreadsheets if you want me to send you these files.

I found I needed to use at least 4H or daily charts, so I put Ichimoku aside. U seem to be able to make anything work, so I will be interested in your journey with Ichimoku.

I do not work for either Forextestor or Sierra Charts, just impressed with both.

 
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  #306 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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monpere View Post
When I use to trade stocks on minute bars with this type of risk management, on very large bars that negate my risk/reward, I would risk half the bar instead of the whole bar. The idea would be, if this is truly strong momentum, then the bar should not retrace that much.


Yes... i have found that the 50% point is magical as it pertains to the pullback of a large bar. Over 50% PB is dangerous.


AJ
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  #307 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
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...finally got around to catching up with old friends...love the new insight.

Once again, we are on some sort of Parallel Journey... I too have increased my targets, albeit a bit larger. I am shooting
for 20 now with a small opening for more gain. I pull up tight to +18. I have a problem with missing big, hard moves and
this at least gives me shot to make my nut in one trade if price just plows right through my 20.


I haven't changed my charts in months... Just trying to figure out the best RR for me.

I'm still using stupid tight initial stops and not moving to BE until price moves well away.

...will skype soon

PS...

sorry for the loss of your friend.


AJ
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  #308 (permalink)
 loxics 
Calgary, Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
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I joined just today and started reading the Journals and I came across your first journal thread which lead me to your second one here.

You had a real humble beginning when you were talking about learning to trade "small accounts" with only few thousands.

I time travel and am reading your second Journal that you are still continuing many years after your first entry. I am inspired by your determination and commitment of being a better trader after all this time.

I am curious How are you doing now? Is your account still small or has it bloomed to something you are proud of? You must have gone through so much over the years and learned a lot. Are you very consistent and consider yourself knowledgeable and experienced enough to be rid of all fears about trading?


Thanks and good luck! I will keep reading your journal entries to come!

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  #309 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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loxics View Post
I time travel and am reading your second Journal that you are still continuing many years after your first entry. I am inspired by your determination and commitment of being a better trader after all this time.

I actually have three journals here on the forum, one in the elite section I no longer post in and two in this section. Thank you for reading. I hope they have helped in some small way.


loxics View Post
I am curious How are you doing now? Is your account still small or has it bloomed to something you are proud of? You must have gone through so much over the years and learned a lot. Are you very consistent and consider yourself knowledgeable and experienced enough to be rid of all fears about trading?

I am doing well. I stopped talking about the small account in the last thread. My conclusion was that a beginner trader would not be able to take a small account and earn a living with it. However an experienced trader can. This thread is more about the mental aspects of the trading journey, hence the use of the term "Chronicles". I feel the mental aspect of the journey is far more important than any set up or method. In reviewing my threads, I often realize the many different set ups I used all had some really good aspects to them, it was my mental deficiencies that prevented them being effective.

I consider my self somewhat consistent, much more knowledgeable and experienced but doubt I will ever be rid of ALL fears about trading. If a trader reaches that point, I suspect they will be dead.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #310 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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PandaWarrior View Post

I consider my self somewhat consistent, much more knowledgeable and experienced but doubt I will ever be rid of ALL fears about trading. If a trader reaches that point, I suspect they will be dead.

NO FEAR TRADING. Starting my new trading company.

Any takers, admission is 5K per minute, and I will show you how to have absolutely no fear. (Payments upfront)

Step 1, Load Gun

Step 2, Put gun to head

Step 3, .....(Secret).... Must pay me first

Any takers?

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  #311 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
NO FEAR TRADING. Starting my new trading company.

Any takers, admission is 5K per minute, and I will show you how to have absolutely no fear. (Payments upfront)

Step 1, Load Gun

Step 2, Put gun to head

Step 3, .....(Secret).... Must pay me first

Any takers?


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #312 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Cloud trading experiment continued.

First of all, went to a funeral today that turned into an all day affair. So just sat down a bit ago and took a look at the charts on my demo account.

Loaded up a daily chart of CL (I finally found the front month) and present it here for posterity.

I have no intention of trading this next week, however I am intrigued as I like the chart's simplicity. I have noticed that most of the signals seem to concur with my normal set up although it does seem to give me an early start on counter trend trades and it also seems to capture trend continuation trades better.

Anyway, here is the daily chart with the cloud as well as a nifty Elliot Wave function thrown in. Overall, I like this platform. Some order management issues to clarify but otherwise I like it.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #313 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Cloud trading experiment continued.

First of all, went to a funeral today that turned into an all day affair. So just sat down a bit ago and took a look at the charts on my demo account.

Loaded up a daily chart of CL (I finally found the front month) and present it here for posterity.

I have no intention of trading this next week, however I am intrigued as I like the chart's simplicity. I have noticed that most of the signals seem to concur with my normal set up although it does seem to give me an early start on counter trend trades and it also seems to capture trend continuation trades better.

Anyway, here is the daily chart with the cloud as well as a nifty Elliot Wave function thrown in. Overall, I like this platform. Some order management issues to clarify but otherwise I like it.


I like the "simulated" watermark on the back screen. Nice... Too bad vendors don't have to place that on their charts... Sure would be EZ to tell who is sim and who isn't... haha...

Also, nice chart, but a lot on it. I like the Elliot Wave dealio...

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  #314 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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bluemele View Post
I like the "simulated" watermark on the back screen. Nice... Too bad vendors don't have to place that on their charts... Sure would be EZ to tell who is sim and who isn't... haha...

Also, nice chart, but a lot on it. I like the Elliot Wave dealio...



What is the concept of the Cloud?


AJ
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  #315 (permalink)
 vovan348 
Moscow
 
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tderrick View Post
What is the concept of the Cloud?

There is a webinar about Ichimoku but here is the video that gives you all information of 2.5 hours in 13 min.

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  #316 (permalink)
 vovan348 
Moscow
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Loaded up a daily chart of CL (I finally found the front month) and present it here for posterity.

I hope this helps:


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  #317 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
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vovan348 View Post
There is a webinar about Ichimoku but here is the video that gives you all information of 2.5 hours in 13 min.


Oh, yea... I'm going to try me some of that!!


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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  #318 (permalink)
 loxics 
Calgary, Canada
 
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Cloud charting is very interesting. Is there an indicator Ichimoku for NT7?

 
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  #319 (permalink)
 sharmas 
Auckland
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: Zen-Fire
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loxics View Post
Cloud charting is very interesting. Is there an indicator Ichimoku for NT7?

Yes and search it via the search box.

sharmas

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  #320 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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loxics View Post
Cloud charting is very interesting. Is there an indicator Ichimoku for NT7?

I loaded up one called ichimoku basic... it is the only one I can find.

Although I hesitate to use it for entry / exit,at this point, it is most helpful in indicating trend. Chop is very obvious.
If the chart looks like chaos, price is in chaos. If everything is linear and neat, price is moving well.


AJ
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  #321 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I had some time today to goof around on the new platform and decided to start getting in practice for next week. So I took the ichimoku cloud off, traded my straight signals and this is the result.

I missed the big sell of early since I wasn't at the computer....I slept in today....yeah me...

So I got to deal with the junk that usually comes at the end of a runner....I wasn't gonna trade it at all but since it was sim and I felt I had decent signals and who knows, it could run further, I went ahead and traded it.

There were several signals I didn't take because I chickened out or didn't feel like they met my standards for a real signal.....

+69 ticks if I added it up right....before commissions of course.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #322 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I had some time today to goof around on the new platform and decided to start getting in practice for next week. So I took the ichimoku cloud off, traded my straight signals and this is the result.

I missed the big sell of early since I wasn't at the computer....I slept in today....yeah me...

So I got to deal with the junk that usually comes at the end of a runner....I wasn't gonna trade it at all but since it was sim and I felt I had decent signals and who knows, it could run further, I went ahead and traded it.

There were several signals I didn't take because I chickened out or didn't feel like they met my standards for a real signal.....

+69 ticks if I added it up right....before commissions of course.



Nice group of trades there. And it only took you 2 hours!

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  #323 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Nice group of trades there. And it only took you 2 hours!

Yep....thats the plan anyway....we'll see how it goes!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #324 (permalink)
 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
Experience: Intermediate
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VinceVirgil View Post
Nice group of trades there. And it only took you 2 hours!

ill say!!!
nice job Panda, i love seeing the chart!

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  #325 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
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PandaWarrior View Post
I had some time today to goof around on the new platform and decided to start getting in practice for next week. So I took the ichimoku cloud off, traded my straight signals and this is the result.

I missed the big sell of early since I wasn't at the computer....I slept in today....yeah me...

So I got to deal with the junk that usually comes at the end of a runner....I wasn't gonna trade it at all but since it was sim and I felt I had decent signals and who knows, it could run further, I went ahead and traded it.

There were several signals I didn't take because I chickened out or didn't feel like they met my standards for a real signal.....

+69 ticks if I added it up right....before commissions of course.





Are the MA's your normal 89 / 21?


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #326 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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tderrick View Post
Are the MA's your normal 89 / 21?

Yep....I have used both the 89 SMA and the 50SMA. Both work. The 89 SEEMS to contain the trend better while the 50 does a great job EXCEPT when there is a bit of a spike counter trend. Then price tends to close opposite the trend....at this point I tend to start stressing out a bit about when to resume trading in the trend directon....so the 89SMA solves that problem...most of the time...... its still about price action, LL/LH, etc......

The 89 is an SMA and the 21 is an EMA....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #327 (permalink)
 loxics 
Calgary, Canada
 
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That's such a nice and concise visualization of your entry and exit points on a chart. Is that automatically generated or did you placed them by hand? Must be great way to keep a visual trading journal.

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  #328 (permalink)
 loxics 
Calgary, Canada
 
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tderrick View Post
I loaded up one called ichimoku basic... it is the only one I can find.

Although I hesitate to use it for entry / exit,at this point, it is most helpful in indicating trend. Chop is very obvious.
If the chart looks like chaos, price is in chaos. If everything is linear and neat, price is moving well.


I found one that appears to be High Low derived Ichimoku and also approved by many pros here.



One by 'futuretrader' post #26.

It seems to look great on the chart. PandaWarrior, what is your opinion of it after using it? Do you continue to trade with this indicator?

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  #329 (permalink)
 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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Hey Pandawarrior, i was comparing my charts with yours.Im assuming that isnt ninja.The 89 sma on your chart is very different on your chart than on ninja.I did a comparison, and the closest i got was a 170 ema for ninja.Usually , the mas arent the same on differnent platforms, but this isnt even close.

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  #330 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
virginia
 
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bobarian View Post
Hey Pandawarrior, i was comparing my charts with yours.Im assuming that isnt ninja.The 89 sma on your chart is very different on your chart than on ninja.I did a comparison, and the closest i got was a 170 ema for ninja.Usually , the mas arent the same on differnent platforms, but this isnt even close.

use fat tail newvisualEMA, input = 5m on close, parm = 34 period

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  #331 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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loxics View Post
I found one that appears to be High Low derived Ichimoku and also approved by many pros here.



One by 'futuretrader' post #26.

It seems to look great on the chart. PandaWarrior, what is your opinion of it after using it? Do you continue to trade with this indicator?

I really like it especially on higher time frames, the one minute is noisy but tradeable. However, my impression is that it is better suited for bigger time frames. I like it on the daily, the hourly, 30M, 15M and to a lessor degree, the 5M.

As it is designed to capture the heart of a trend, and to stay in a trade for longer periods of time than I am used to, I just found it to be not necessary for my style of trading. However, when I make the move to spot forex to do some swing trading, I will probably use it on an hourly chart or perhaps a 4 hour chart.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #332 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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bobarian View Post
Hey Pandawarrior, i was comparing my charts with yours.Im assuming that isnt ninja.The 89 sma on your chart is very different on your chart than on ninja.I did a comparison, and the closest i got was a 170 ema for ninja.Usually , the mas arent the same on differnent platforms, but this isnt even close.

Yeah on the MotiveWave platform, the smaller SMA's are jagged for some reason, so that 89SMA is really an 89SSMA. I had forgotten about that. Sorry for the confusion. On Ninja, the 89 works just fine.

I guess it just goes to show that almost anything can work, its whats between your ears and whats in your heart that matters.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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loxics View Post
That's such a nice and concise visualization of your entry and exit points on a chart. Is that automatically generated or did you placed them by hand? Must be great way to keep a visual trading journal.

Since I was doing a trial of the MotiveWave platform, I never really figured out how to have the trades logged automatically, so those are placed manually, that being said, I always log them manually, I like the visualization better. And yes, it is a good way to keep a journal. To take it another step further, you can print out the chart with the markers on it and then make handwritten notes and stick it in a binder for future reference. Its more concise than posting here on the forum as the charts and your narrative can get interrupted with other peoples posts. Which is nice from an alternative view point but can cause you to lose continuity of thought.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Just watched the movie Margin Call. Good actors, terrible movie. Was looking for an expose of the MBS meltdown along with some trading action. Movie moved slow, left out the technical details as to WHY the MBS market imploded and virtually NO trading action.

Oh well.....I can at least check it off my movies to see list....

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 PandaWarrior 
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First day back....

1. Got up at 5:30. I was sleepy all morning after trying to reset my body clock last week and failing.
2. Was somewhat out of sync today.
3. Took two trades overall
4. Passed on a couple I probably should have taken but just didn't feel it.

I guess I am ok with the results. Basically I should have done a better job of resetting myself for today. Looks like it will take a few days to recover the lost sleep and get back on the proper sleep/work cycle. Tomorrow should be better.

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 VinceVirgil 
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Just watched the movie Margin Call. Good actors, terrible movie. Was looking for an expose of the MBS meltdown along with some trading action. Movie moved slow, left out the technical details as to WHY the MBS market imploded and virtually NO trading action.

Oh well.....I can at least check it off my movies to see list....

Maybe you should have seen Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps.

Head of old Wall Street investment firm throws himself in front of subway when his firm valued at far less than its former market value. Shia LaBeuf as Investment Banker... Ya, right... Estranged daughter despises Wall Street father Gordon Gekko, then proceeds to hook up with Wall Street guy Shia. Should have taken place at Fantasy Land in Disney World...then it would have been more believable. 2 hours of my life wasted that i will never get back.

Dont waste your time.

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 bluemele 
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VinceVirgil View Post
Maybe you should have seen Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps.

Head of old Wall Street investment firm throws himself in front of subway when his firm valued at far less than its former market value. Shia LaBeuf as Investment Banker... Ya, right... Estranged daughter despises Wall Street father Gordon Gekko, then proceeds to hook up with Wall Street guy Shia. Should have taken place at Fantasy Land in Disney World...then it would have been more believable. 2 hours of my life wasted that i will never get back.

Dont waste your time.

I enjoyed it. Of course, probably because I loved the first movie so much that they could have left the screen black for 2 hours and I would have applauded...

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 VinceVirgil 
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bluemele View Post
I enjoyed it. Of course, probably because I loved the first movie so much that they could have left the screen black for 2 hours and I would have applauded...

lol... Sorry about the movie critic stuff. i liked the first movie too...: "Blue horseshoe loves Endicot Steel" But there is a limit to my gullibility, and this money Never Sleeps passed it 15 minutes in. When the old guy ended it for himself when he found out his money would only last 25 lifetimes instead of 50. And Shia finds this rational. Josh Brolin on the motorcycle, hanging it all the way out there on wet fall day with wet leaves for traction. Ever run over wet leaves on a motorcycle. A little more traction than a thin coating of motor oil.

But, you can say the same for all movies. More or less.

V

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 PandaWarrior 
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I saw this today and thought it very appropriate to trading.

"I ’m not yet desperate enough to do anything about the
conditions that are making me desperate." - Ashleigh Brilliant

Said another way, no one changes their behavior until the pain of staying the same is greater than the pain of change.

We'll keep trusting indicators and chasing the holy grail until we either flame out or we finally get so sick of chasing and losing that we finally learn to trade.

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 bluemele 
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That sums it up doesn't it.

amazing how strong laziness and greed has infiltrated our genetic code...

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 tderrick 
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PandaWarrior View Post
First day back....

1. Got up at 5:30. I was sleepy all morning after trying to reset my body clock last week and failing.
2. Was somewhat out of sync today.
3. Took two trades overall
4. Passed on a couple I probably should have taken but just didn't feel it.

I guess I am ok with the results. Basically I should have done a better job of resetting myself for today. Looks like it will take a few days to recover the lost sleep and get back on the proper sleep/work cycle. Tomorrow should be better.


No worries, babe... I'm always in a fog when I get back in the studio after the holiday break. I wonder if
I can even remember how to run all that gear!! lol ... then after a couple of days it's back in the saddle
again. You'll be fine .

The brain truly is a "muscle" that needs to be worked


AJ
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 Massive l 
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We'll keep trusting indicators and chasing the holy grail until we either flame out or we finally get so sick of chasing and losing that we finally learn to trade.

I know exactly what you mean. I lost about 8k to get to that point. That was a lot to me!

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 PandaWarrior 
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Crappy trading conditions today... still managed 34 ticks......then gave it all back plus 10 more. Down -10 today.

Made a few mistakes

1. I got greedy. Let trades hit me several time for BE after I had 15 ticks on the table. THose should have been profit.
2. I failed to recognize the narrow range until to late. Not sure how that happened but it did.
3. I started to believe my own press....how good I've gotten lately. Suicide.
4. I didn't listen to the little voice that said enough at 34 ticks. I told myself and my trading partner, I was quitting about half a dozen times today...and didn't. An old habit I thought was gone forever. I will be diligent about that tomorrow.

Still, to be down only 10 ticks after the mistakes I made along with the choppy nature of the market is not to bad.

Cheers.

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 cory 
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Crappy trading conditions today... still managed 34 ticks......then gave it all back plus 10 more. Down -10 today.

Made a few mistakes

1. I got greedy. ...
Cheers.

after a few wins watch out for that.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Decided to look at slightly larger trades today. That worked ok for the most part.

Net of 48 ticks after a stupid first trade......

I changed the parameters on the chart to allow for the larger trades.

Trade management was not perfect by any means and there were a couple of break evens.

Overall though, I am pleased with the results. I targeted areas on the chart that seemed logical to attract price and while I didn't hold them the way I could have or should have, I did better than I have in the past with regards to larger trades.


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 VinceVirgil 
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Net of 48 ticks after a stupid first trade......

It's not how, it's how many.

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 vvhg 
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VinceVirgil View Post
It's not how, it's how many.

I disagree. It's the how that counts. Because if the how works, the how many will never be a problem...

Vvhg

Hic Rhodos, hic salta.
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 PandaWarrior 
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vvhg View Post
I disagree. It's the how that counts. Because if the how works, the how many will never be a problem...

Vvhg

I agree with this. The how is far more important than the how many.......if the how is correct, the trade may still fail, but at least its not stupid. Witness some of the break evens I had today. They were good trades, they just didn't do what I thought they would do and my trade management says to be break even. That's enough.

However, if a stupid trade works, that reinforces poor behavior. And that is suicide. I've had that happen more than once and it does produce further negative behavior.

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 PandaWarrior 
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A nice day to day, I was more in tune with the market, far more patient, both with the set up and with waiting for the trade to develop. Mentally I was short all morning, but my higher time frames said long. I did trade short a couple of times but got on board with the long when the 1 min said the shorts were over.

I also took a trade I've never tried before. A counter trend with no moving average to confirm. It was the triangle breakdown after the $1 spike up this morning. I did it with only 1 lot and for only ten ticks as I have no idea how to gauge possible targets for a trade like that. Turns out it was a great trade but I got mine on the first impulse out of the triangle.

Overall a net of 43 ticks gained today.

First trade was a loser. Second trade was a BE+1, third trade was for 33 ticks and last trade was ten ticks.


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 bluemele 
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Chart Patterns Schmatterns | Important Chart Patterns | Learn Forex Trading

Triangles | Important Chart Patterns | Learn Forex Trading

Good trading today. The above link is good for showing how most people trade them etc...

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 bobarian 
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PandaWarrior View Post
A nice day to day, I was more in tune with the market, far more patient, both with the set up and with waiting for the trade to develop. Mentally I was short all morning, but my higher time frames said long. I did trade short a couple of times but got on board with the long when the 1 min said the shorts were over.

I also took a trade I've never tried before. A counter trend with no moving average to confirm. It was the triangle breakdown after the $1 spike up this morning. I did it with only 1 lot and for only ten ticks as I have no idea how to gauge possible targets for a trade like that. Turns out it was a great trade but I got mine on the first impulse out of the triangle.

Overall a net of 43 ticks gained today.

First trade was a loser. Second trade was a BE+1, third trade was for 33 ticks and last trade was ten ticks.


Nice job! I know in the past on ninja, you were using a 21 ema.It looks like now , however, youre mas are much longer.

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 cory 
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A nice day to day, I was more in tune with the market, far more patient, both with the set up and with waiting for the trade to develop. Mentally I was short all morning, but my higher time frames said long. I did trade short a couple of times but got on board with the long when the 1 min said the shorts were over.

...

listen to market instead of yourself, awesome!

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 bluemele 
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bobarian View Post
Nice job! I know in the past on ninja, you were using a 21 ema.It looks like now , however, youre mas are much longer.

Not a bad idea in a rangy-esque market?

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 PandaWarrior 
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PandaWarrior View Post
A nice day to day, I was more in tune with the market, far more patient, both with the set up and with waiting for the trade to develop. Mentally I was short all morning, but my higher time frames said long. I did trade short a couple of times but got on board with the long when the 1 min said the shorts were over.

I also took a trade I've never tried before. A counter trend with no moving average to confirm. It was the triangle breakdown after the $1 spike up this morning. I did it with only 1 lot and for only ten ticks as I have no idea how to gauge possible targets for a trade like that. Turns out it was a great trade but I got mine on the first impulse out of the triangle.

Overall a net of 43 ticks gained today.

First trade was a loser. Second trade was a BE+1, third trade was for 33 ticks and last trade was ten ticks.


well it turns out there is a reason I don't post in threads where the math guys hang out...I cant even add the number of ticks properly..... a -10+BE+33+10 does not add up to 43. It adds up to 33 which matches my PnL.....

sheesh.

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 PandaWarrior 
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bobarian View Post
Nice job! I know in the past on ninja, you were using a 21 ema.It looks like now , however, youre mas are much longer.


Those MA's are:

Red: 1 Min 89 SSMA
Green: 5M 89 SSMA
Purple: 15 89 SSMA

Over the month of December when I wasn't trading, I looked at lot of historical charts with the 21 and the 89 on them. The 21 seemed to be pretty decent at following a trend and catching smaller pull backs on the 1M chart. However, as you know, there is a lot of noise on the 1M chart. Over the course of the month, I noticed that the slower MA tended to catch the deeper pull backs better (duh) and that the moves from there were often times much larger than from the 21. So I made a decision to trade both the 21 and the 89.

After a couple of days of that, I decided to look at the price action with just the 89.

Since I trade only around the MA, this produced fewer trade opportunities thereby helping to reduce over trading, it reduced my decision fatigue by removing the number of times I have to make a decision and it opened up the possibility of targets larger than 15 ticks. And for some reason, it seems like my stops are smaller....but that could be my imagination as I have NOT tested that theory.

In theory anyway, if you can get all the stars lined up, a nice long run will ensue......which appears to have happened twice today.

Anyway, its also forcing me to read price action away from the MA for either a continuation trade or perhaps a counter trend trade like I did today. If I can get good at those two trades, I might have something going on.

Short question, long answer.

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 PandaWarrior 
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 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Those MA's are:

Red: 1 Min 89 SSMA
Green: 5M 89 SSMA
Purple: 15 89 SSMA

Over the month of December when I wasn't trading, I looked at lot of historical charts with the 21 and the 89 on them. The 21 seemed to be pretty decent at following a trend and catching smaller pull backs on the 1M chart. However, as you know, there is a lot of noise on the 1M chart. Over the course of the month, I noticed that the slower MA tended to catch the deeper pull backs better (duh) and that the moves from there were often times much larger than from the 21. So I made a decision to trade both the 21 and the 89.

After a couple of days of that, I decided to look at the price action with just the 89.

Since I trade only around the MA, this produced fewer trade opportunities thereby helping to reduce over trading, it reduced my decision fatigue by removing the number of times I have to make a decision and it opened up the possibility of targets larger than 15 ticks. And for some reason, it seems like my stops are smaller....but that could be my imagination as I have NOT tested that theory.

In theory anyway, if you can get all the stars lined up, a nice long run will ensue......which appears to have happened twice today.

Anyway, its also forcing me to read price action away from the MA for either a continuation trade or perhaps a counter trend trade like I did today. If I can get good at those two trades, I might have something going on.

Short question, long answer.

Whenever I am looking at a 'system' or 'tweaks' I always look for 'death days' and I am curious if you have identified any days that will really hurt? What does that look like, etc...

My favorite MA's that I have identified (depends on the instrument) are the 21/34/89... Funny how after being introduced to those that people still find them interesting.

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
Whenever I am looking at a 'system' or 'tweaks' I always look for 'death days' and I am curious if you have identified any days that will really hurt? What does that look like, etc...

My favorite MA's that I have identified (depends on the instrument) are the 21/34/89... Funny how after being introduced to those that people still find them interesting.

Any day can be a death day. But I assume you mean taking trades based on what I think should happen around the MA and the answer is it depends. Do you trade every bar? Do you wait from some sort of price action you recognize? Do you stop trading if you have 2-3 losers in a row which more than likely is trying to tell you something?

I to like those three MA's. However, there is no magic in them, just context for price action.

Anything works within reason or within context. Its 100% the trader that determines the success/failure of the chosen trading method.

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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post

Overall a net of 43 ticks gained today.


OK so the number was 33...Still a keeper.

Great psot ...Just the tone of your post exudes confidence and to read it is encouraging, for all of us developing traders.

Amazing what a difference a day makes...

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 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Any day can be a death day. But I assume you mean taking trades based on what I think should happen around the MA and the answer is it depends. Do you trade every bar? Do you wait from some sort of price action you recognize? Do you stop trading if you have 2-3 losers in a row which more than likely is trying to tell you something?

I to like those three MA's. However, there is no magic in them, just context for price action.

Anything works within reason or within context. Its 100% the trader that determines the success/failure of the chosen trading method.

What I mean is a visual backtest of how often between the time you trade will it be a really bad market condition for the method. Just something I do whenever I change something is look at market conditions of Christmas Past to see what could happen etc.. That is all I meant...

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 tderrick 
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bluemele View Post
What I mean is a visual backtest of how often between the time you trade will it be a really bad market condition for the method. Just something I do whenever I change something is look at market conditions of Christmas Past to see what could happen etc.. That is all I meant...


I would think that the only bad market condition is chop. If price is moving, there is no reason not to make
money.

Chop is even interesting because sometimes you can go to a pure scalping mode and shoot for
6-8 tick targets, especially if it has any wave pattern to it at all.

Scalping wears me out, however, so, In my eyes, chop is best avoided.

... of course, I am stating the obvious...

why did I post this?


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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Trading like this is leaving me with some blanks in my trading ideas with regards to targets and possible counter trend trades. However, I managed to not screw it up to bad.

Net of 43 ticks although it could have been MUCH more. The red circle is a trade I passed on due to risk. And the blue box is a place I thought about getting long.

Entries were decent and the exits could have been managed better. End result +43 ticks. I gave back ten on the last trade. It was not per my plan and once I recognized I trade against the plan, I quit.

I've implemented a trail stop on my equity and if I am above 40 ticks, I'm willing to give back some but I won't go below 40.

Thats all until Tuesday. Cheers.


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 bluemele 
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tderrick View Post
I would think that the only bad market condition is chop. If price is moving, there is no reason not to make
money.

Chop is even interesting because sometimes you can go to a pure scalping mode and shoot for
6-8 tick targets, especially if it has any wave pattern to it at all.

Scalping wears me out, however, so, In my eyes, chop is best avoided.

... of course, I am stating the obvious...

why did I post this?

Right. So, some instruments chop more on certain timeframes. So, if you change expand your trading to a higher TF, then you will end up having certain really bad days no matter what, but what does it look like, how will that affect your money management etc.. It was more of a question of: Will this eliminate more chop, if so, what are your expectations on what it will do to the rest of your stats, etc.. etc...

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 PandaWarrior 
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Here is something else I like. Not trading it but I like the look of it so keeping it around for something else to play with.


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 PandaWarrior 
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In an effort to focus on Price Action some more, I took all the lines and squigglies off the chart and just started marking swing breaks and what happened after those swings were broken.

Suffice to say, it has been an interesting exercise. I would like those of you that are interested to take my chart and mark it with your thoughts as well as where you think a good entry might be.

There are no support/resistance lines nor are there fibs drawn on this chart so for this exercise, targets are NOT applicable. Only worrying about entries here. Nor are we concerned about so called high probability entries as we all know they are 50/50. Lastly, stops are paramount here. After looking at this chart for an hour, I started wondering if the stops are a CLOSE beyond the most recent swing. Any ideas on that?


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 bobarian 
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PandaWarrior View Post
In an effort to focus on Price Action some more, I took all the lines and squigglies off the chart and just started marking swing breaks and what happened after those swings were broken.

Suffice to say, it has been an interesting exercise. I would like those of you that are interested to take my chart and mark it with your thoughts as well as where you think a good entry might be.

There are no support/resistance lines nor are there fibs drawn on this chart so for this exercise, targets are NOT applicable. Only worrying about entries here. Nor are we concerned about so called high probability entries as we all know they are 50/50. Lastly, stops are paramount here. After looking at this chart for an hour, I started wondering if the stops are a CLOSE beyond the most recent swing. Any ideas on that?


just an observation, price came back below the trendline, so, a resumption of shorts to be expected.The 1st entry would have caused some sweating, but the 2nd entry, there is a LL and a LH,whis is nicer.Time of day, that i dont trade, but the pattern is good

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 vovan348 
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PandaWarrior View Post
In an effort to focus on Price Action some more, I took all the lines and squigglies off the chart and just started marking swing breaks and what happened after those swings were broken.

Suffice to say, it has been an interesting exercise. I would like those of you that are interested to take my chart and mark it with your thoughts as well as where you think a good entry might be.

There are no support/resistance lines nor are there fibs drawn on this chart so for this exercise, targets are NOT applicable. Only worrying about entries here. Nor are we concerned about so called high probability entries as we all know they are 50/50. Lastly, stops are paramount here. After looking at this chart for an hour, I started wondering if the stops are a CLOSE beyond the most recent swing. Any ideas on that?

I'm not sure about trading from swing's highs/lows. I marked it with S/R levels. I think it's the best to wait for break out and see if fails or not. On setups #1,2,4 it failed at #3 I would probably go short because it didn't break through after second time. #5 broke support and it held as a resistance. There is 3 more shorts before #1 and if I traded with this strategy I would probably didn't take the first one. Then it was holding that resistance but I would probably take some losses in that area. Then it broke above and failed.

I cannot say that I'm a big expert in PA but this is what I see:

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 bluemele 
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vovan348 View Post
I'm not sure about trading from swing's highs/lows. I marked it with S/R levels. I think it's the best to wait for break out and see if fails or not. On setups #1,2,4 it failed at #3 I would probably go short because it didn't break through after second time. #5 broke support and it held as a resistance. There is 3 more shorts before #1 and if I traded with this strategy I would probably didn't take the first one. Then it was holding that resistance but I would probably take some losses in that area. Then it broke above and failed.

I cannot say that I'm a big expert in PA but this is what I see:
Attachment 59711

The area where you were taking losses were HH/HL and would be an area of caution and wait for a new LH/LL etc..

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 vovan348 
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bluemele View Post
The area where you were taking losses were HH/HL and would be an area of caution and wait for a new LH/LL etc..

Agree. That's why I think it's better to wait for break out, then see if it keeps making HL/HH or goes to LH/LL.

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 Big Mike 
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vovan348 View Post
I cannot say that I'm a big expert in PA but this is what I see:
Attachment 59711

Good, now take a chart at current time, increase the right margin by a large amount (lots of blank space), and do the same thing forward in time, then wait and see how that works.

Mike

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 vovan348 
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Big Mike View Post
Good, now take a chart at current time, increase the right margin by a large amount (lots of blank space), and do the same thing forward in time, then wait and see how that works.

Mike

I do that every day when I'm trading. Now I use PA around my indicators for entries and S/R area combined with fib levels for exits.

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 PandaWarrior 
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vovan348 View Post
I'm not sure about trading from swing's highs/lows. I marked it with S/R levels. I think it's the best to wait for break out and see if fails or not. On setups #1,2,4 it failed at #3 I would probably go short because it didn't break through after second time. #5 broke support and it held as a resistance. There is 3 more shorts before #1 and if I traded with this strategy I would probably didn't take the first one. Then it was holding that resistance but I would probably take some losses in that area. Then it broke above and failed.

I cannot say that I'm a big expert in PA but this is what I see:
Attachment 59711

Excellent work...now what about stops? Assuming money is no object, where do the stops go for each entry you've noted?

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 vovan348 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Excellent work...now what about stops? Assuming money is no object, where do the stops go for each entry you've noted?

Usually I would put it 1-2 ticks above/below swing high/low, but sometimes you get retest of the area (complex pull back or ABC wave 2) and you can get spike for a couple ticks that would take you out. If money is no object I would put it 3-5 ticks away from swing high/low.

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 bluemele 
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vovan348 View Post
Usually I would put it 1-2 ticks above/below swing high/low, but sometimes you get retest of the area (complex pull back or ABC wave 2) and you can get spike for a couple ticks that would take you out. If money is no object I would put it 3-5 ticks away from swing high/low.

Stops! You don't need stops! haha...

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 PandaWarrior 
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+45.

Had a lot of BE today. Had trouble holding the early ones.



Cheers.

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 bluemele 
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Great work today! I was thinking about your strategy after I was done and wondering how you would fare.

Seems a bit choppy but overall trendy on TF, so curious how that would transpire on CL.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I had some time so thought I would look at the daily and see what the swing trade ideas would look like.


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 PandaWarrior 
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+40 ticks.

Could have been more, took a small loss on the third trade when it didn't go straight down like I thought it would. Also did what I consider to be counter trend trades today. All those were small targets as I didn't want to be in them long.

All in all, a decent day.


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 PandaWarrior 
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I had a tough time reading PA today. It was a narrow range day to start with, my trading method doesnt work super well on days like this and so I had a mental block going in that it would be hard to trade.

I netted 22 ticks on 8 trades. To many to be sure. And I think I tried hard to manufacture trades where none existed. I decided to call it quits at +22 and preserve my capital for a better day.

You'll notice my chart has only one MA on it now. Its a 21EMA. I've tried all sorts of MA's over the last few years and have come to the conclusion it doesn't really matter which ones you use. Simpler is better especially on narrow range days. Just read price action, and be ready to get out if you are wrong. That being said, I still need something like an MA for context. Still not good enough for just straight price bars. In the future, I may put MA's back on and take them off. Whatever suits my mood at the time I guess. I like the cleaner chart though. Makes it easy to see whats going on.



Here is the chart with all the MA's.


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 bluemele 
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Have you ever tried line chart? I am sure you have. I have a chart on forex where I have a line chart and then a 1EMA for high and 1EMA for low but those are small.


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 vvhg 
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PandaWarrior View Post
....I've tried all sorts of MA's over the last few years and have come to the conclusion it doesn't really matter which ones you use. Simpler is better especially on narrow range days. Just read price action, and be ready to get out if you are wrong. That being said, I still need something like an MA for context....


I completely agree. That's how I use the one MA I have on my charts....just as a yardstick to set me into perspective....just to give me a rough idea on the speed of price movement, nothing I follow closely....

vvhg

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 tigertrader 
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vvhg View Post
I completely agree. That's how I use the one MA I have on my charts....just as a yardstick to set me into perspective....just to give me a rough idea on the speed of price movement, nothing I follow closely....

vvhg

If I had only one MA to choose to from, I would use the 50EMA. It's implememted in a lot of algorithms so it tends to have "mean reversion" functionality.

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 vovan348 
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PandaWarrior View Post
You'll notice my chart has only one MA on it now. Its a 21EMA. I've tried all sorts of MA's over the last few years and have come to the conclusion it doesn't really matter which ones you use. Simpler is better especially on narrow range days. Just read price action, and be ready to get out if you are wrong. That being said, I still need something like an MA for context. Still not good enough for just straight price bars. In the future, I may put MA's back on and take them off. Whatever suits my mood at the time I guess. I like the cleaner chart though. Makes it easy to see whats going on.

I'm not sure if you are following this guy or not but it seems like you guys have very close trading style. If you haven't seen his videos before you might like it and maybe learn something new. PATsTrading's Channel - YouTube

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 Big Mike 
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tigertrader View Post
If I had only one MA to choose to from, I would use the 50EMA. It's implememted in a lot of algorithms so it tends to have "mean reversion" functionality.

On which timeframe?

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 tigertrader 
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Big Mike View Post
On which timeframe?

Mike


On all time-frames. Whatever chart you are using, slap a 50EMA on it; 5-15-30-60-135.

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 monpere 
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tigertrader View Post
If I had only one MA to choose to from, I would use the 50EMA. It's implememted in a lot of algorithms so it tends to have "mean reversion" functionality.

Here, here... 20EMA and 50EMA are on all my charts. That's how I determine the trend of the current chart, given that I use only one chart/timeframe to trade. 20 above 50 bullish, 20 below 50 bearish, 20 intertwining with 50 stay out.

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 PandaWarrior 
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21EMA (small)
50EMA (medium)
50SMA (large)
50SSMA (orange)

They all look decent. The SSMA does seem to contain TODAY'S action better......who knows about tomorrow.

I think the swing breaks along with a decent size pull back to an MA of your choice is fine......

What do you think?


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 PandaWarrior 
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I'm not sure if you are following this guy or not but it seems like you guys have very close trading style. If you haven't seen his videos before you might like it and maybe learn something new. PATsTrading's Channel - YouTube

Never seen this guy before but I like his simple method and his no hype way of talking. I'll investigate some more and perhaps learn something.

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 tigertrader 
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‘Thinking Fast and Slow’ - A must read for investors, as well as anyone who has to make decisions

By Edward Strafaci

A colleague suggested that I read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow as a way to explore the wiring of our minds regarding decision making. I was not disappointed. Kahneman is a former Nobel Laureate in Economics. His work is the progeny of other pieces, such as “Freakonomics,” which studies the human psyche and how it makes choices. Kahneman’s current best-selling book centers on the two systems that regulate our thought functions and the way we evaluate our life alternatives.

System one is mainly structured around our intuition. It is reactionary, and an amalgam of our own collective experiences, as well as what is naturally wired in us as human beings. Think of it as the brain’s RAM adjusted for “fight or flight” and modern social convention. System two is a more careful, analytical engine that allows us to give greater thought to our everyday selections. It is described as the system that basically “looks, before it leaps.” It is an arrangement of gray matter that serves as our arbiter, giving finality and concentration to our beliefs. While this may not be the first time an economist or a psychologist has written about such competing methods, Thinking, Fast and Slow serves as a tour de force that delves into the innumerable ways that we choose.

This book is essential reading for anyone, though it is especially salient for the money manager. One of the keys when making financial decisions is to eventually review one’s investments post mortem, so to speak. A work like this explores the different avenues that affect our predilections. For example, Kahneman suggests that we tend to frame our risk set based on factors such as loss aversion, more recent experiences and stereotypes or biases. In one instance, he writes about investors who tend to flock to stocks that have been in the news. He also addresses our insistence on selling “winners” while hanging on to losing investments in the hope of recouping our losses and damaged egos. Ultimately, what Kahneman advocates is a cold, hard look at our own body of work. How much of our success is due to true insight and hard work and how much is luck? After all, as we have already suggested in past articles, an approach that favors securities with real value, or arbitrage possibilities, consistently works in the long run. This discipline requires a certain degree of focused analytics and not the good fortune that trends or momentum rewards. Granted the old saw, “it is better to be lucky than smart” or “you can marry more money in an hour than you can make in a generation,” still apply. Nevertheless, it is still important to rely on a cerebral algorithm that tests assumptions, without prejudice, and adjusts for noise due to presumption.

More fascinating still, is Kahneman’s view that we set many of our choices around our own narrative. A storyline that is based on a plot we continually write for ourselves. In this way, we lend a halo effect to those options that resonate with who we want to be, or what we aspire to. We tend to overweight candidates that are attractive to us, rather than ones that are fundamentally sound. In fact, it clearly reminded me of the central premise behind Michael Lewis’ much acclaimed Moneyball. In Moneyball,baseball’s general managers and scouts preferred ballplayers that had a “pro body,” Players who compiled statistics that qualified them, yet with the additional benefit of looking like Mickey Mantle. Lewis’ protagonist, Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane, upends this technique by using statistical analysis to choose players when drafting. His legacy is a team that saw relative triumph on a meager payroll while competing with payroll giants like the Yankees. To Kahneman’s credit, he concedes that talent and good looks should never be ignored; however, we must stick to the numbers. I apply this to the latest fascination with certain “black box” theory which has proved time and again to eventually run its course. It seems the Warren Buffets of the world win, where others do not, by considering all aspects of a trade using a strong dose of reality. In essence, that is what Thinking, Fast and Slow endorses, and I find it hard to argue with that line of reasoning.

Kahneman allows for the intangible and non-analytical, and that is what makes him special. He gives discourse on the great benefit of optimism which runs contrary to his thesis. Optimists tend to get over failure much quicker than most and is what makes them valuable entrepreneurs and creators. Optimists sometimes ignore the obvious risks. For instance, it was Edison’s insistence on trial and error that brought us the light bulb. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, we see that reality takes care of the constant concerns while optimism and originality inspire greatness.

It would be too exhaustive to explore all of the circumstances that this tome uses to describe our inner workings. Suffice to say it has been selected for many “must read” lists and justifiably so.The journey one makes with Kahneman is that of reflection, and a contemplation of our brain’s flow chart. It definitely belongs on every serious investor’s book shelf. It should be read and re-read, and applied to our judgments, both in the financial arena and beyond. Having said that, it is also an entertaining and thought provoking read—and you may learn something, despite your inner tendencies.


Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, Publisher.

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 wldman 
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may I re-post that narrative in another thread? There is a discussion going on there about a recent webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) and the topic of neuroscience.

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  #391 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
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wldman View Post
may I re-post that narrative in another thread? There is a discussion going on there about a recent webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) and the topic of neuroscience.

dupe it, my friend

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  #392 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Nice way to finish the week. +25 ticks....chart shows +23 ticks but I think I miss counted somewhere. Today was a great day for big target traders. I'm not really that guy so even though the day was one for large dollar wins, I am satisfied with what I got. For some reason, I'd rather grind out 25-40 ticks a day doing it in small chunks than hope for 50-100 tick winners.

Anyway, I've had a nice couple of weeks so far, here's looking forward to another couple of good weeks to finish out the month.


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 chipotlebop 
Pleasant Hill, CA
 
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I like the way you use trendline breaks. Good work Panda!

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 Big Mike 
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  #395 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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tigertrader View Post
‘Thinking Fast and Slow’ - A must read for investors, as well as anyone who has to make decisions

By Edward Strafaci

A colleague suggested that I read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow as a way to explore the wiring of our minds regarding decision making. I was not disappointed. Kahneman is a former Nobel Laureate in Economics. His work is the progeny of other pieces, such as “Freakonomics,” which studies the human psyche and how it makes choices. Kahneman’s current best-selling book centers on the two systems that regulate our thought functions and the way we evaluate our life alternatives.

System one is mainly structured around our intuition. It is reactionary, and an amalgam of our own collective experiences, as well as what is naturally wired in us as human beings. Think of it as the brain’s RAM adjusted for “fight or flight” and modern social convention. System two is a more careful, analytical engine that allows us to give greater thought to our everyday selections. It is described as the system that basically “looks, before it leaps.” It is an arrangement of gray matter that serves as our arbiter, giving finality and concentration to our beliefs. While this may not be the first time an economist or a psychologist has written about such competing methods, Thinking, Fast and Slow serves as a tour de force that delves into the innumerable ways that we choose.

This book is essential reading for anyone, though it is especially salient for the money manager. One of the keys when making financial decisions is to eventually review one’s investments post mortem, so to speak. A work like this explores the different avenues that affect our predilections. For example, Kahneman suggests that we tend to frame our risk set based on factors such as loss aversion, more recent experiences and stereotypes or biases. In one instance, he writes about investors who tend to flock to stocks that have been in the news. He also addresses our insistence on selling “winners” while hanging on to losing investments in the hope of recouping our losses and damaged egos. Ultimately, what Kahneman advocates is a cold, hard look at our own body of work. How much of our success is due to true insight and hard work and how much is luck? After all, as we have already suggested in past articles, an approach that favors securities with real value, or arbitrage possibilities, consistently works in the long run. This discipline requires a certain degree of focused analytics and not the good fortune that trends or momentum rewards. Granted the old saw, “it is better to be lucky than smart” or “you can marry more money in an hour than you can make in a generation,” still apply. Nevertheless, it is still important to rely on a cerebral algorithm that tests assumptions, without prejudice, and adjusts for noise due to presumption.

More fascinating still, is Kahneman’s view that we set many of our choices around our own narrative. A storyline that is based on a plot we continually write for ourselves. In this way, we lend a halo effect to those options that resonate with who we want to be, or what we aspire to. We tend to overweight candidates that are attractive to us, rather than ones that are fundamentally sound. In fact, it clearly reminded me of the central premise behind Michael Lewis’ much acclaimed Moneyball. In Moneyball,baseball’s general managers and scouts preferred ballplayers that had a “pro body,” Players who compiled statistics that qualified them, yet with the additional benefit of looking like Mickey Mantle. Lewis’ protagonist, Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane, upends this technique by using statistical analysis to choose players when drafting. His legacy is a team that saw relative triumph on a meager payroll while competing with payroll giants like the Yankees. To Kahneman’s credit, he concedes that talent and good looks should never be ignored; however, we must stick to the numbers. I apply this to the latest fascination with certain “black box” theory which has proved time and again to eventually run its course. It seems the Warren Buffets of the world win, where others do not, by considering all aspects of a trade using a strong dose of reality. In essence, that is what Thinking, Fast and Slow endorses, and I find it hard to argue with that line of reasoning.

Kahneman allows for the intangible and non-analytical, and that is what makes him special. He gives discourse on the great benefit of optimism which runs contrary to his thesis. Optimists tend to get over failure much quicker than most and is what makes them valuable entrepreneurs and creators. Optimists sometimes ignore the obvious risks. For instance, it was Edison’s insistence on trial and error that brought us the light bulb. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, we see that reality takes care of the constant concerns while optimism and originality inspire greatness.

It would be too exhaustive to explore all of the circumstances that this tome uses to describe our inner workings. Suffice to say it has been selected for many “must read” lists and justifiably so.The journey one makes with Kahneman is that of reflection, and a contemplation of our brain’s flow chart. It definitely belongs on every serious investor’s book shelf. It should be read and re-read, and applied to our judgments, both in the financial arena and beyond. Having said that, it is also an entertaining and thought provoking read—and you may learn something, despite your inner tendencies.


Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, Publisher.

Great post....read about this in a book review in the New Yorker a couple of weeks ago.

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 VinceVirgil 
Toronto, Canada
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Nice way to finish the week. +25 ticks....chart shows +23 ticks but I think I miss counted somewhere. Today was a great day for big target traders. I'm not really that guy so even though the day was one for large dollar wins, I am satisfied with what I got. For some reason, I'd rather grind out 25-40 ticks a day doing it in small chunks than hope for 50-100 tick winners.

Nice work, Panda. You know what works for you, and from what I know about trading, thats a very important element for success.

You are making it look easy...

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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tigertrader View Post
‘Thinking Fast and Slow’ - A must read for investors, as well as anyone who has to make decisions

By Edward Strafaci

A colleague suggested that I read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow as a way to explore the wiring of our minds regarding decision making. I was not disappointed. Kahneman is a former Nobel Laureate in Economics. His work is the progeny of other pieces, such as “Freakonomics,” which studies the human psyche and how it makes choices. Kahneman’s current best-selling book centers on the two systems that regulate our thought functions and the way we evaluate our life alternatives.

System one is mainly structured around our intuition. It is reactionary, and an amalgam of our own collective experiences, as well as what is naturally wired in us as human beings. Think of it as the brain’s RAM adjusted for “fight or flight” and modern social convention. System two is a more careful, analytical engine that allows us to give greater thought to our everyday selections. It is described as the system that basically “looks, before it leaps.” It is an arrangement of gray matter that serves as our arbiter, giving finality and concentration to our beliefs. While this may not be the first time an economist or a psychologist has written about such competing methods, Thinking, Fast and Slow serves as a tour de force that delves into the innumerable ways that we choose.

This book is essential reading for anyone, though it is especially salient for the money manager. One of the keys when making financial decisions is to eventually review one’s investments post mortem, so to speak. A work like this explores the different avenues that affect our predilections. For example, Kahneman suggests that we tend to frame our risk set based on factors such as loss aversion, more recent experiences and stereotypes or biases. In one instance, he writes about investors who tend to flock to stocks that have been in the news. He also addresses our insistence on selling “winners” while hanging on to losing investments in the hope of recouping our losses and damaged egos. Ultimately, what Kahneman advocates is a cold, hard look at our own body of work. How much of our success is due to true insight and hard work and how much is luck? After all, as we have already suggested in past articles, an approach that favors securities with real value, or arbitrage possibilities, consistently works in the long run. This discipline requires a certain degree of focused analytics and not the good fortune that trends or momentum rewards. Granted the old saw, “it is better to be lucky than smart” or “you can marry more money in an hour than you can make in a generation,” still apply. Nevertheless, it is still important to rely on a cerebral algorithm that tests assumptions, without prejudice, and adjusts for noise due to presumption.

More fascinating still, is Kahneman’s view that we set many of our choices around our own narrative. A storyline that is based on a plot we continually write for ourselves. In this way, we lend a halo effect to those options that resonate with who we want to be, or what we aspire to. We tend to overweight candidates that are attractive to us, rather than ones that are fundamentally sound. In fact, it clearly reminded me of the central premise behind Michael Lewis’ much acclaimed Moneyball. In Moneyball,baseball’s general managers and scouts preferred ballplayers that had a “pro body,” Players who compiled statistics that qualified them, yet with the additional benefit of looking like Mickey Mantle. Lewis’ protagonist, Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane, upends this technique by using statistical analysis to choose players when drafting. His legacy is a team that saw relative triumph on a meager payroll while competing with payroll giants like the Yankees. To Kahneman’s credit, he concedes that talent and good looks should never be ignored; however, we must stick to the numbers. I apply this to the latest fascination with certain “black box” theory which has proved time and again to eventually run its course. It seems the Warren Buffets of the world win, where others do not, by considering all aspects of a trade using a strong dose of reality. In essence, that is what Thinking, Fast and Slow endorses, and I find it hard to argue with that line of reasoning.

Kahneman allows for the intangible and non-analytical, and that is what makes him special. He gives discourse on the great benefit of optimism which runs contrary to his thesis. Optimists tend to get over failure much quicker than most and is what makes them valuable entrepreneurs and creators. Optimists sometimes ignore the obvious risks. For instance, it was Edison’s insistence on trial and error that brought us the light bulb. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, we see that reality takes care of the constant concerns while optimism and originality inspire greatness.

It would be too exhaustive to explore all of the circumstances that this tome uses to describe our inner workings. Suffice to say it has been selected for many “must read” lists and justifiably so.The journey one makes with Kahneman is that of reflection, and a contemplation of our brain’s flow chart. It definitely belongs on every serious investor’s book shelf. It should be read and re-read, and applied to our judgments, both in the financial arena and beyond. Having said that, it is also an entertaining and thought provoking read—and you may learn something, despite your inner tendencies.


Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, Publisher.

I read about this guy somewhere recently but couldn't find it again. Thanks for putting it in my thread.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #398 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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For the first time since I began this trading journey, I experienced a few things other successful traders have told me over the years would happen to me.

1. Trading should be boring....and it is. Except when #2 is successfully executed, then its exciting.

2. I've heard traders talk about stalking the trade....like it was some sort of prey to be stalked and killed. Its like sitting in a hunting blind looking to shoot a bull elk and passing the time while assorted other wildlife walk by unharmed. The bars on the chart are just assorted wildlife. Let them pass until the bull elk you are looking for shows up and its within range of your rifle. And then wait until you can make a kill shot with 100% certainty. I felt a bit of that today. An oddly exhilarating feeling. It could become addicting.

3. I've had traders tell me privately that once you "get it" you should be able to take money from the market almost every day if not every day. I am still not entirely sure about the "every" day part but after this week, I think its in the realm of possibility.

4. I finally feel a level of confidence I've never had before.

I can't quantify it, and I have a lot to learn still, BUT I feel different mentally and emotionally today. It feels like something shifted in the space time continuum and I'm not the same person I was last week, month or year.

I'm still a one trick pony. I have one trade in my tool box. But at least I think I know enough when to use that one trade and to just stay away when market structure does not support using my one trick. Over time, I'd like to add another trade or two to my arsenal but for now, I am dancing with the partner I know.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #400 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
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It's good to catch up on some Panda.... great work


AJ
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