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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #201 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I traded hit and miss this week. We had an unexpected house guest this week that slept in my office so that put a bit of a crimp in my trading day. I traded some market replay as well as took the psychology course I mentioned earlier.

The psychology course was pretty good. I got a couple of things out of it that will stick with me for a long time. The first is this: Recognize all three market states: Trending, transitional, and consolidating. And then have a trading strategy for each. I had a plan for only one of these states. Therefore I traded the same way in all three states which led to losses that could have been avoided.

So one night last week, I sat down and wrote a detailed plan for what each of these states looked like to me and how to trade them. This made a huge difference in how I perceived what the market was doing at anyone time. I finally traded it properly on Friday. The prior days, I was getting used to seeing the market with these new lenses.

The second thing I learned was to abandon daily goals. To be honest, this seems counter productive to me. However, the instructor said to instead position yourself to take advantage of opportunity. I am processing this statement.

Next, I really began to get what it meant to wait for the market structure to match what my market strategy. On Friday, I really waited it out. There were basically just a few set ups that were worth trading. In between there was lots of consolidation and transitional zones. No real trends to take advantage of at least while I was trading but I was able to sit most of it out, identify areas of opportunity and then take advantage of those limited opportunities and end the day with a nice profit. Essentially I got the only real moves during my trading hours without getting chopped to pieces like I normally would have.

Lastly, he really advised us to journal by hand, keep a chart by hand and review that handwritten chart frequently. Well, I wont chart by hand since I can barely draw a stick figure but I will journal by hand and since I already do occasionally, I will step this aspect of my trading up a bit.

I'll post with some more regularity this week.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #202 (permalink)
 cory 
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PandaWarrior View Post
...
Lastly, he really advised us to journal by hand, keep a chart by hand and review that handwritten chart frequently. Well, I wont chart by hand since I can barely draw a stick figure but I will journal by hand and since I already do occasionally, I will step this aspect of my trading up a bit.

I'll post with some more regularity this week.

at end of day right click on chart, print then add your notes manually, the idea behind it to commit your setup/analysis into yours mind by using many senses as possible, smelling some scene helps to.

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  #203 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
at end of day right click on chart, print then add your notes manually, the idea behind it to commit your setup/analysis into yours mind by using many senses as possible, smelling some scene helps to.

Currently I am taking screen shots and marking them up. I am trying to go paperless over the next few months. I've reduced my paper out put by about 90% and working on the remaining 10%. Next thing I am working on is the mail.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #204 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Today was very disciplined in waiting for the market structure to match my market strategy.

I did a good job of identifying each market state as it went through its cycles. I made two mistakes today for total loss of 15 ticks on those trades.

I finished with 40 ticks on 7 trades and closed down my platform before 9:30 AM.

The hardest part was the waiting. I passed on a nice trade as the risk was to large for my taste. But waiting through that trade caused me a bit of angst and I made my second mistake right after that. I was slightly pissed about not taking that trades so I entered in an area for which I had no trade plan. -9 ticks for that one.

After seeing how waiting pays off in ticks and not waiting punishes with losers, I am becoming more comfortable waiting.

Glad I took that class last week. It sure helped me become more comfortable with waiting. At least at this point, I don't really feel the urge to be in the market like I did a couple of weeks ago. I like the feeling and will work on making it a part of who I am as a trader and as a person.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 bobarian 
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hello PandaWarrior, i decided to check out your journal, after hearing from you in mine.I read through some in the beginning, and briefly the end, and enjoyed it very much.It seems alot of us are working on the mental stuff, which imo, is the hardest part, but, the really necessary part.I look forward to hearing more about your journey.Also, some great comments from some of the other members
funny thing, i have 3 year old twin boys, and they really help me to take a break, because they demand my time!
cheers

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  #206 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #207 (permalink)
 futuretrader 
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You mentioned Denise Schull, was it one of her courses that you took?

 
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  #208 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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You mentioned Denise Schull, was it one of her courses that you took?

No although I have sat through some of her stuff. Most of it goes right over my head. I hear the english words she is speaking but the order in which she uses them creates a large amount of confusion for me. I think she's great but I can't really follow her at this point. Her stuff is pricey as well so I haven't purchased anything from her either.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #209 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Wait, then wait some more, finally just when you think you cant stand it,wait a little longer. Only then do you trade. Today I waited. Then i waited some more. And some more....

Finished with no losers, 6 trades and 41 ticks.

I made two mistakes. Both ended BE+1. Both would have been nice winners but price was moving slowly at the time, I got impatient and bailed early. Otherwise, it would have been an 80 tick day.

I waited until the market structure matched my trading strategy on all trades and placed myself in the best possible place to take advantage of opportunity today. It felt like I knew what I was doing.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #210 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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More waiting. Well right out of the gate, I took a trade that did not meet my rules 100%, as soon as I figured it out, I closed it for a small loss, waited for the setup and took that trade. That was a winner. The next 8 trades were small losers or break even +1. Managed to work myself down to -7 at one point and then a decent winner to be positive again for the day.

Net +6 ticks after ten trades and three hours.

Mistakes: I made one error in execution. The first trade. After that, I made several errors in trade management. I normally BE at +10 ticks, today I went BE on several trades at +5,+6,+7. These trades all went out at BE+1. However, they would have been winners. The trouble was, these trades were shorts on a one min chart and i was really nervous about them after the really strong rally. I got the direction right, the entry right and still managed to not make money on them. Shorting into the rally was nerve racking. Especially since the first trade of the day I got 21 ticks on and from my entry, price ran with no pull backs I could enter on for another 200+ ticks. To be truthful I almost didnt trade the rest of the day. I expected an extended period of consolidation before any further trends could be exploited.

So i waited quite a bit today and as it wore on, I grew more and more short biased. So biased in fact that I missed the only real long that set up for me. That kinda upset me but i did a good job of keeping my emotions in check. I waited some more, took the next couple of longs, went out at BE+1 after price went ten ticks and in general, really did a good job of waiting today.

After today, I will look for a way to re-enter on a strong trend day. In all honesty, I got in almost near the bottom of the run and thats ok to just get some of it, on a one min chart, you expect some deeper pull backs most days. Just not today. I think Al Brooks has a way to enter on spiking prices. I'll need to research that. I am a one trick pony in terms of what my set up looks like and I think I could use a method to re-enter on days like today.

Overall, I am pleased the way the day turned out. Even with only making $60, most days like this would have been a complete and utter disaster for me as I would have been manufacturing trades. But the psychology class I went to really helped me become more patient waiting for the market structure to match my trading strategy.

Well here's to a better day tomorrow at least in terms of net profit.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #211 (permalink)
 Surly 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Wait, then wait some more, finally just when you think you cant stand it,wait a little longer. Only then do you trade.

Pdub - you should check out "zen and the art of poker" - you will laugh out loud at the first several vignettes in that book. Literally the first 17 or so sections are about folding, folding some more, then folding, and starting to really focus on folding, then just straight up folding... then not getting upset about folding, etc, etc.

awesome

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  #212 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Surly View Post
Pdub - you should check out "zen and the art of poker" - you will laugh out loud at the first several vignettes in that book. Literally the first 17 or so sections are about folding, folding some more, then folding, and starting to really focus on folding, then just straight up folding... then not getting upset about folding, etc, etc.

awesome

I heard an interview somewhere and the guy was talking about the art of folding. He thought it was the key to winning. Fold and then fold some more....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #213 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I will be switching to the Jan 2012 contract tomorrow.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #214 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Its eleven pages long but an excellent article about decision fatigue. There are lots of ramifications for traders here.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles-do-you-suffer-decision-fatigue_-nytimes.pdf  
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  #215 (permalink)
 cory 
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PandaWarrior View Post
..
After today, I will look for a way to re-enter on a strong trend day.

pretty easy watch for something with shorter interval bounces off something with longer interval, 5 period bounce off 20 period for example.

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  #216 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
pretty easy watch for something with shorter interval bounces off something with longer interval, 5 period bounce off 20 period for example.

I do this but i got no signals yesterday on this type of action. Price just ran away from my trading method in the morning. To be fair, i use slightly longer periods but still, on a normal run, I'll get two or three entries. Not yesterday.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #217 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Couldn't get in focus today. First two trades were full losers, which put me real close to my daily stop, so I did my best to just wait. I got set ups that were to rich for me, so I passed. Then had a decent winner, followed by another full stop out.

Looking back at the chart, I think I would have done the same thing again except for the first two. They were clear violations of my rules. Trouble was, I didn't recognize it at the time. I had a full on short bias and even though my one minute chart was in consolidation, I saw a trend and I was determined to get on board faster than my chart would allow me.

An excellent example of impatience and being blinded by what I thought I saw vs what I was actually seeing.

No excuses today. Just poor execution all around.

-30 ticks net

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #218 (permalink)
 cory 
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I do this but i got no signals yesterday on this type of action. Price just ran away from my trading method in the morning. To be fair, i use slightly longer periods but still, on a normal run, I'll get two or three entries. Not yesterday.

then it was out of your realm. You were in the unknown territory, process with utmost caution.

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  #219 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
then it was out of your realm. You were in the unknown territory, process with utmost caution.


I agree, and I did not trade it at all. I waited until I saw something I recognized.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #220 (permalink)
 futuretrader 
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cory View Post
pretty easy watch for something with shorter interval bounces off something with longer interval, 5 period bounce off 20 period for example.

How do you tell the difference between simple bounce and double bounce retraces? (i.e., a single retrace and continuation vs an ABCD (or consolidation period) that takes out the stops of those who assumed it would be a simple retrace)

 
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  #221 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Net 115 ticks today. Took me to many trades as I made a couple of WTF trades. But I sure did learn some valuable lessons today.

Lesson 1. NEVER trade unless it looks like your set up. This is rookie stuff. I made that mistake more than once today.
Lesson 2. Don't get greedy. I did, held one trade that went +47 ticks in my favor, and watched it bounce off a support line and take me out +1. I KNEW the support area was the place to take profit. But I thought it would run even further.
Lesson 3. Quit while you are ahead or when you get tired. I traded longer than normal today. Thats not a good thing. I need to stick to my time frames. Funny thing was, when I got to my normal quitting time, I was trading well, was up nicely and decided to keep trading. A while later, I felt the fatigue set in, my internal warning bells went off and I ignored it. Thankfully by then, I was back to sim. Mostly losers after that.

Picked up the book, Zen and the art of poker. So far its mostly about waiting and folding. Good stuff.

I am gonna experiment this weekend with just marking higher time frame S/R on the chart and then minimizing them. They do freak me out sometimes when I get a signal on the 1M but think I should pass on the HTF. I dont trade HTF, I just look at them for S/R so why have them up if the levels are marked?

Anyway, ended the week +150 or so. Best week in awhile.

Have a great weekend.

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #222 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Anyway, ended the week +150 or so. Best week in awhile.

Congrats

Cheers to the weekend!

Mike

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 Big Mike 
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Picked up the book, Zen and the art of poker. So far its mostly about waiting and folding. Good stuff.

Sounds like a direct correlation to trading just from that statement so far

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  #224 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Sounds like a direct correlation to trading just from that statement so far

Mike

I think it will reinforce what I've learned so far about waiting for the market to match my trading strategy. I am absolutely blown away by how rewarding the act of waiting is!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #225 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Today will be my last post for a while. My best friend passed away today...43 years old from cancer. Its been a hard blow and I won't be able to attend the funeral. I wont be trading until after the first of the year. December is always tough for me for some reason, my friends death and just all the assorted duties to attend to during the holidays. My kid is off for three weeks and its always tough trading when she's around.

Anyway before the news of my friends death, I was up 75 ticks on 5 trades this morning. I did no further trading after that.

I will check in on a few threads during the month of course but for now, I think its best I don't trade.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Today will be my last post for a while. My best friend passed away today...43 years old from cancer. Its been a hard blow and I won't be able to attend the funeral. I wont be trading until after the first of the year. December is always tough for me for some reason, my friends death and just all the assorted duties to attend to during the holidays. My kid is off for three weeks and its always tough trading when she's around.

Anyway before the news of my friends death, I was up 75 ticks on 5 trades this morning. I did no further trading after that.

I will check in on a few threads during the month of course but for now, I think its best I don't trade.

Cheers.

PW,

Sorry to hear about your loss. I lost my best friend about 3 years ago (December). Nothing that I can say except that always remember to celebrate that person in everything you do.

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 Big Mike 
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Very sorry to hear of your loss. Try to celebrate his life as it was and not focus too much on his death.

I hope you are able to enjoy a nice Thanksgiving with your family.

Mike

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  #228 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Well I had not intended to post until after the first of the year. But I am finding that talking about things has a cathartic affect. I also wasn't going to trade. But my kid is in school until the 19th and I need something to do to make sure I stay out of trouble.

The death of my friend last week was a hard blow. He's the guy I liked to do life together with. I think a person that has one or two super close friends over their lifetime should count themselves blessed. He was one of those friends. I have lost him much to soon. But as his wife explained, his suffering is over now and while I feel angry and cheated, I should be glad his reward for a faithful life is now his....and in that respect, I am so happy for him. So as this last week has progressed, the conversations with others who have gone through this have helped tremendously. And as I have developed over the years the extremely valuable skill of compartmentalizing stuff, I decided to see if I could trade today and place my loss in one of those compartments while trading.

More about today's trading later on but I decided to read some of my other journals here on the forum. I was struck how each of those journals was a sad story of not being able to take the trades I knew I should and of breaking my rules over and over again. Each method I tried and failed on had merit. Perhaps some were better than others but in the end, their success or failure was measured not by the method itself but by my emotional inadequacies. So in a fit of retrospective, I printed every single page of my posts to PDF and sometime this month, I will consolidate them into a booklet form and then perhaps post the entire thing here in this thread as an attachment for posterity.

Those posts seem somewhat pathetic at this point in my life. Full of hope, frustration, despair, trial and error, refusal to change myself instead of the method and yet at the same time, each post represented some small measure of progress. Sitting here today, I am almost convinced that each trader MUST go through the cycle of unrestrained exuberance at the beginning of their trading career, the realization that their computer will not simply print money, the commitment to learn how to trade and finally the awful knowledge that success or failure is within their own psyche. Its at this point that I think traders give up when they realize how difficult it is to change ones own self and how that MUST be done before lasting success will come.

I wish new traders could be convinced of this fact BEFORE they start trading, but alas, I fear only a select few will realize its all in their head and that simply trying harder or working longer hours will not work. Even in this thread where I titled it based on a cartoon character that finally realized it was all in his head, I've digressed into methodology at times.

But over the last few weeks, I've discovered myself. As a trader, and more to the point, as a human being. I've finally recognized my weakness and how to simply avoid them and not strive so darn hard to over come them. At the same time, I've recognized my strengths and have begun looking for ways to capitalize on those. I've opened myself up to new concepts in trading that went against everything I thought I was taught at the beginning. That in turn has allowed me to trade confidently well past my "daily target". And in the midst of struggling to come to terms with my new identity, I found the patience to just wait. What an amazing concept. Waiting. I now fully realize what the saying "we get paid to wait" means. When I don't wait, I lose, when I wait, I win. Pretty damn simple.

My original mentor told me once that once you "get it", you can take money out of the market all day every day. I believed him because he was doing it every day. Trouble was, I could not do it the same way he did because it wasn't part of me. I didn't have his method as part of my soul if you will allow me that metaphor. I think it takes the journey and the realization that's its all inside before the head knowledge becomes heart knowledge and the trader can act in his or her own best interest. After all, trading is nothing more than acting in your own best interest. To bad the journals I just printed were more about "getting it right" than it was about figuring out how to act in my own interest. Had I realized that earlier, things like defining a set up, an exit point, a trading plan I could actually live with and the incredible concept of simply waiting until the moment when acting was really in my best interest to act.

Today was one of those rare straight trend days. Normally I totally blow it on days like today. I might get one or two good trades but will miss most of the move due to my fear of not really knowing what kind of day it was, what the market state was and how to trade it. But not today, I just waited and while my trade targets are only 15 ticks, I managed to capture 99 ticks today. I had a couple of break evens, one I took only ten ticks on and the rest my full target of 15 ticks. No losers today. In between trades I talked to my trading buddy on skype, engaged in extended instant messaging with two other trading buddies on skype, took my kid to school, ate breakfast and in general, traded with no stress.

It stemmed from one thing. Confidence that comes from knowing its ok to wait. And confidence that comes from knowing exactly what I am looking for in terms of a setup and confidence to enter the trade with no fear knowing that while this trade might not work, over time, my edge is valid and will produce a profit. I traded with stops almost twice what my profit target was because that was the proper place to put a stop. Of course I moved it down very fast as per my trading plan, but the point is, the trade was a good trade regardless of the potential R:R. In truth, there is no such thing as a fixed R:R. There is potential R:R but that can go against you instantly and erase 100% of that potential in a heartbeat. In general, its not good to trade like that, but with the strong trend today, I was not fearful of the trade.

I've had one losing day in the last 7 days. That losing day was one in which I did not wait. All other days I have waited and acted when I thought it most beneficial to me. Somehow it feels almost to easy. I do not claim to have found the holy grail but its the closet thing I have discovered to it. In one of my conversations today, I said it feels almost to easy and my friend said that this is what intuitive trading is supposed to be, almost to easy. I am proceeding with caution at this point, almost waiting for the other shoe to drop, to find the weakness in what I've experienced the last week and a half.

At the same time, I am also very optimistic I can sustain this kind of trading, it is far less stressful than anything I've done before and therefore I think I can sustain it over the long term. Perhaps not the 99 ticks a day, but that is not the point, those ticks are simply the result of the opportunities presented to me today and of me taking advantage of them. Other days this could be 10 ticks or perhaps 20 or even none, but the key to happiness in trading is trading the plan and then being content with how that works out.

Many people have posted in my threads with either heartfelt thanks or have chimed in with suggestions both helpful and otherwise. Some of them have pissed me off and others have spawned what I think will be lasting friendships. In some small way, each guest post represents a step on the journey. Something that provoked a new thought, or perhaps challenged me in ways I did not care to be challenged but needed to be. All of them are part of my journey and I am grateful for each one.

Here's to the future.....

Here's a chart of today's trading for context.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 soumi71 
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Great post Brian , Shifting your grief and anger towards something
you are passionate about is a good therapy and dedicate your success to your friend

"Risk more than others think safe.
Dream more than others think practical.
Expect more than others think possible.
Care more than others think wise"
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 monpere 
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Very nice trading session. Do you share the details of your trading entries and method?

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 bobarian 
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Pandawarrior, i am so sorry for your loss.I have only been following your journal for a few weeks, and i must say, the last post could be a valuable reference to alot of the struggling traders out there.So many important key points, and a very inspiring read.

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 Surly 
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Nice work Pdub - way to capitalize on a market that was directly in line with your edge. Its so important to be able to recognize when the market is lined up with your edge and delivering outlier returns - these are the days you really have to push. Glad you got that zen poker book - its a goody. Here's a familiar quote from schwager's 2nd book in the section titled "zen and the art of trading" -

"In trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, straining, struggling, or trying, it's wrong.
You're out of sync; you're out of harmony with the market. The perfect trade is one that requires no effort."

May you have continued high returns on your journey (both financially and in life).

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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 PandaWarrior 
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I may post some entry/exit rules later on today.

Net 55 ticks

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 bluemele 
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monpere View Post
Very nice trading session. Do you share the details of your trading entries and method?

If I remember, he just does pullback entries after it crosses the 21 MA.

He was using Range, but it seems he moved to Minute charts. What a nice trend...

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
If I remember, he just does pullback entries after it crosses the 21 MA.

He was using Range, but it seems he moved to Minute charts. What a nice trend...


Well, yes and no...I should have some time later today to expound on this.....

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 PandaWarrior 
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Couldn't help myself, I took 15 more...net 70 today


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 VinceVirgil 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Couldn't help myself, I took 15 more...net 70 today


nice trading. Looks like you are really getting a handle on the CL. Good to see someone is profiting.

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 bobarian 
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VinceVirgil View Post
nice trading. Looks like you are really getting a handle on the CL. Good to see someone is profiting.

great job on the trading Pandawarrior, it looks like you have settled into a good rythem.I read a good part of the"zen and the art of poker " book, and enjoyed it very much.I think there are many things that apoker player goes through, that traders go through as well.I felt obliged to reccommend a book that has helped me , quite a bit, for over 20 years."Way of the peaceful warrior", by Dan Millman.IMO, trading is one of the hardest things to master, because it exposes some of our truest weaknesses.For those who choose to realize this, and actually work on their shortcomings, the progress comes.We all know, its a slow process, but as you say, its more of a realization, that just takes time for us to see.I have read this book probably 30 times, and it never gets old.Its a short one, that can be finished in a weekend.Once again, nice trading

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 PandaWarrior 
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Ok, I have some time to elaborate on some of my trading ideas. Keep in mind these are just guidelines and are distilled from everything I have learned and unlearned during the last two and half years.

First things first. I believe VERY strongly that in order to be success at any endeavor, you MUST know who you are. Otherwise you will self sabotage. For years I was a mortgage banker. I did it very well. When I tried other so called ancillary things, those didn't go so well. I was also a specialist inside the mortgage banking arena. Not many people in the country were better at my specialty than I was.

Same with being a trader. Are you a scalper and frustrated by the big moves because you weren't in them? Forget about it. Do you have the skills to capture the big runs? Probably not if you are scalper. So trade a chart small enough to give you enough entries to make your nut and then freaking quit for the day. How to tell if you are a scalper? Its real easy. Answer one question. How long can you stand being in the market without freaking out? Less than 10 minutes? Less than 5, maybe one minute or how about 30 seconds. I say if its less than ten minutes, you are a scalper.

If you can sit there for an hour while a trade is in progress and read a book or read the news or some other activity while your trade advances and retreats, you can do what I call, intra day swing trading. Looking to capture larger moves.

Both styles are valid and acceptable. Just decide what you are and then ONLY trade that way. Forget about the stuff you miss. Just trade the way that works for you.

So I said that to say this: I am a scalper. I want to be in and out inside 10 minutes and hopefully sooner. I can and have held longer. I held a trade the other day for 45 minutes and after the first 10 minutes or so, the pain of that waiting more or less went away. But I still to be in and out. SO I trade a one minute chart and have set my targets to 15 ticks...well 16 to be fair. I want to cover slippage and commissions with that extra tick. Anyway, I have found that 15 ticks is a fair target before a pull back occurs. Sometimes it goes more but I don't care. Its a conservative exit and that is what matters to me. All that being said, I see the exact same set ups on all time frames, its just that the stops are bigger and the targets are bigger. I think I could trade a daily chart the exact same way I am trading a one min chart.

Being a scalper means I want momentum on my side. I used to buy pull backs on the range charts but honestly, I never really trusted them. I knew most traders use time based charts and so I went back. Even then, I was entering at the wrong place. I would wait until the pull backs happened but would enter long after there had been selling. I never really figured out that I should buy after the buying actually started again. I wanted my entry to be as close to the swing as possible so I could have a smaller stop. Then I read Perry's thread and his use of the "PPMAs", the light bulb went on and I realized he was buying strength and selling weakness. I didn't like his method of showing it and so I just figured out how to do it on my own without the extra MAs.

So its pretty easy actually, trade in the direction of the 89SMA, and above or below the 21EMA for the most part. Exception to this, I will almost always take a trade in the 89SMA if price is below the 21 and touches the 89 and then closes back in the trend direction. I figure this is the deepest pullback I will see without disrupting the chart structure and more importantly, entering a different market state.

I have three market states: Trending, consolidation and transitional. The two hard ones are consolidation and transitional. Consolidation for me is when price has pulled far away from the MA and works its way back over to them by either going sideways or by a sharp pullback. Transitional for me is when price has closed against the fast EMA. this is the first signs of a possible transition. At this point, I get pretty cautious. I will then wait for further signs of the trend resuming before placing another trade. A full transition attempt occurs when price closes opposite side of the 89SMA. At this point, one should be VERY careful and wait for trend conditions to reestablish themselves before trading. This could take a while. In fact, If I am nicely green for the day and this happens, I might just quit for the day especially if I am close to my 9:30AM cut off time. No sense in pushing it and giving something back.

Thats it in a nutshell. I have all this formalized in a short trading plan document. I have some sizing rules, some drawn down rules but I suspect most people are only really interested in the method. I have some counter trend trades I can take but I'm not a real fan of those so why waste energy doing something you don't really like?

Here are my hillbilly formulas for success.

1. Know your market states. There are three of them. Know what they look like for your method. If you cannot identify a consolidation zone with your method, you are not ready to trade. If you can't figure out when price is trying to go from long to short or vice versa, don't trade.
2. Have a trading strategy for each of the three market states. For me, the trading plan calls for no trades except in the trending state. So no trading most of the time for me.
3. Develop CONSERVATIVE exits. I want to make money without being right about the overall direction of the move. I don't want to bet the day's ticks on catching the monster move.
4. Don't trade all day long. It will drive you to make stupid decisions. Most traders that win in the morning, lose most of it in the afternoon. Its called decision fatigue and its real. Being forced to make snap decisions all day drives people to make less and less rational decisions as the decision making period is extended.
5. Don't be greedy.
6. When your kid walks up and asks you to play with her, stop trading and play with her. You'll be a hero and the market will be there later. Don't ever be to busy for your kids.
7. Whatever your trading plan is, you must own it like nothing else. It must be down deep in your soul, your psyche if you will. It has to be second nature. You must be able to walk up to a chart of any instrument and look at it with your indies on it and know instantly what you would do next if forced to make a snap decision. It could be short, long or flat but you must know and you must know why.

So the long answer to a short question about what my entry and exit rules are.....I sort of wait until after price crosses the fast MA, wait for a pull back and enter after a bar closes in the trend direction....more or less. Look at the charts I posted today, you'll see it.

Hope that helps......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #240 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Hi Brian,

I've taken the last week or so off -- as much as I could anyway, so am just now catching up on some posts. I was very pleased to read the newest entries.

I hope this takes you in the right direction. A direction that you create yourself, execute yourself, and are accountable for -- yourself. A lot of traders get caught up in "the blame game", always placing blame elsewhere for their poor trading results. You have to take complete control of your trading and fully accept the outcome as your complete and utter responsibility, and then it empowers you.

Too many search for black and white answers. When do I enter? When do I exit? The truth is trading is a lot of gray area, there are no such things as black and white answers to everything. Each person has to find their own path.

Last, I just want to congratulate you on staying with it. I think that there is no more important thing than sticking with it, following your dreams, having the courage and conviction to stay with it even when it is very challenging.

A "master trader" is a trader that has made all the mistakes, and is still trading.

Mike

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  #241 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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@PW,

Can you point me to the PPMA? I honestly had never heard of it before and I did a few searches and it is mentioned, but haven't seen an indie called that?

of course, I usually don't find the indie's anyways. Thanks.. I like your setup and doing something similar on FOREX for about a month now just testing. Trading Daily's etc...

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  #242 (permalink)
 cory 
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bluemele View Post
@PW,

Can you point me to the PPMA? I honestly had never heard of it before and I did a few searches and it is mentioned, but haven't seen an indie called that?

of course, I usually don't find the indie's anyways. Thanks.. I like your setup and doing something similar on FOREX for about a month now just testing. Trading Daily's etc...

pp = pivot point just another name for MA based on h+L+c/3

 
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  #243 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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cory View Post
pp = pivot point just another name for MA based on h+L+c/3

Ok, is there an already generated one for NT7? I guess the name is what is confusing me... I really don't want to read through Perry G's thread...

Or, I guess I can just create a new one...

Thanks for the explanation Cory.

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
Ok, is there an already generated one for NT7? I guess the name is what is confusing me... I really don't want to read through Perry G's thread...

Or, I guess I can just create a new one...

Thanks for the explanation Cory.

Perry took the standard SMA that comes with NT, set it to calculate as "typical" instead of closing price and then he has two of those one set at 1 period and another at 3 period. He calls them pivot point moving averages. As near as I can understand it, the very short term MA's are what is happening RIGHT NOW. And for a long, price must close above them and they must be pointed UP. I think thats the basics of it anyway. I didnt like having so many lines on the chart. So just looking at the price action, its basically buying after an up bar and selling after a down bar. Not to complicated and no need for another indie to show that. He's doing it on a range chart and I'm doing it on a minute chart. Simple

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 PandaWarrior 
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Big Mike View Post
Hi Brian,

A "master trader" is a trader that has made all the mistakes, and is still trading.

Mike

Looks like I still have a long way to go....I've not made all the mistakes yet.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 cory 
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bluemele View Post
Ok, is there an already generated one for NT7? I guess the name is what is confusing me... I really don't want to read through Perry G's thread...

Or, I guess I can just create a new one...

Thanks for the explanation Cory.

john person uses ppma only https://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?postid=1162840

 
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 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Looks like I still have a long way to go....I've not made all the mistakes yet.....

You never will..... Or I hope not... Then we are in for some real trouble.

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 sleepy 
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bluemele View Post
Can you point me to the PPMA? I honestly had never heard of it before and I did a few searches and it is mentioned, but haven't seen an indie called that?

bluemele,

Take a look at perrys webinar
Webinar: Perry's Trading Method

Around 00:36.00 - 00:43:30

sleepy

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 monpere 
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PandaWarrior View Post
...
So the long answer to a short question about what my entry and exit rules are.....I sort of wait until after price crosses the fast MA, wait for a pull back and enter after a bar closes in the trend direction....more or less. Look at the charts I posted today, you'll see it.

Hope that helps......

Sounds similar to MWinfrey's 5 minute Odyssey. Ok, looks like you are entering at the close of a bar. How do you determine your risk? Do you put your stop behind the entry bar, or do you have a fixed size stop? And given that all your targets and stops are not uniform, I assume you have some sort of stop management as well?

 
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 PandaWarrior 
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monpere View Post
Sounds similar to MWinfrey's 5 minute Odyssey. Ok, looks like you are entering at the close of a bar. How do you determine your risk? Do you put your stop behind the entry bar, or do you have a fixed size stop? And given that all your targets and stops are not uniform, I assume you have some sort of stop management as well?

Risk is the swing, target is 16 ticks unless I think I can get a few more due to the distance to the next swing. I do have a stop strategy but since I think stops are highly personal, its not worth mentioning here. Suffice to say, I get to BE pretty darn fast.

And yes, it is similar to the Odyssey except that Mike would trade regardless of direction of the trend and his SMA was an 8 period I believe. The MA I think was to short to be of real use on a 5M and I don't trade counter trend and I have consolidation and transitional market state filters. I think he was using a stoch to help him filter trades. I don't like panel two indicators at all.

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 bluemele 
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sleepy View Post
bluemele,

Take a look at perrys webinar
Webinar: Perry's Trading Method

Around 00:36.00 - 00:43:30

sleepy

Thanks... I figured those were linear reg lines like Shadow Traders. His system is almost identical to the vendor...

MT4 has the HLC/3 built in, but no idea on how to do it in Ninja. I will look for his indie on his thread.

EDIT: Ok, figured it out. I never ever play with Moving averages in Ninja..

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 monpere 
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Risk is the swing, target is 16 ticks unless I think I can get a few more due to the distance to the next swing. I do have a stop strategy but since I think stops are highly personal, its not worth mentioning here. Suffice to say, I get to BE pretty darn fast.

And yes, it is similar to the Odyssey except that Mike would trade regardless of direction of the trend and his SMA was an 8 period I believe. The MA I think was to short to be of real use on a 5M and I don't trade counter trend and I have consolidation and transitional market state filters. I think he was using a stoch to help him filter trades. I don't like panel two indicators at all.

I never tried trading minute time frames. Putting your stop behind the entry bar or behind the swing high/low will give you a variable stop size depending how big the bars are at the time. If you get a signal from a tight consolidation, you have an awesome risk/reward, but if the volatility is high, you will tend to get worst risk/reward. What is the typical stop size do you generally get on average for the CL 1 minute with your approach? Do you ever pass on trades because putting your stop behind the swing would give you too bad a risk reward?

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 bobarian 
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I never tried trading minute time frames. Putting your stop behind the entry bar or behind the swing high/low will give you a variable stop size depending how big the bars are at the time. If you get a signal from a tight consolidation, you have an awesome risk/reward, but if the volatility is high, you will tend to get worst risk/reward. What is the typical stop size do you generally get on average for the CL 1 minute with your approach? Do you ever pass on trades because putting your stop behind the swing would give you too bad a risk reward?

this is a good point.I traded off a 1 minute for a long time, and, after watching it today, i actually miss the simplicity.I put it up next to my 4 range, for the cl, and it takes alot of noise out(obviously).I think part of the decision to consider the trade, is partly based on the pivot candle running away.If its too big(thus, requiring a larger stop), just wait for the next signal.Also, getting in at the beginning of the swing is important, obviously.And , what are the sizes of the swings previous to the present signal.So many things to consider, when choosing to pass or not.It seems like PandaWarriors filtering , patience, and discipline is really what is making the difference, and as another post referred to, waiting for a specific scenario to evolve, and then strike....Im not answering for Pandawarrior, just had some thoughts.

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 madLyfe 
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also, do you mind sharing your template?

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 PandaWarrior 
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monpere View Post
I never tried trading minute time frames. Putting your stop behind the entry bar or behind the swing high/low will give you a variable stop size depending how big the bars are at the time. If you get a signal from a tight consolidation, you have an awesome risk/reward, but if the volatility is high, you will tend to get worst risk/reward. What is the typical stop size do you generally get on average for the CL 1 minute with your approach? Do you ever pass on trades because putting your stop behind the swing would give you too bad a risk reward?

To be honest, I have taken trades this last week with an inverted risk to reward ratio. I just move the stop pretty fast once price gets going in my favor. If its over 20 ticks, I guess I would hesitate. Most of the time its around 10-15 ticks. Sometimes less.

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 PandaWarrior 
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this is a good point.I traded off a 1 minute for a long time, and, after watching it today, i actually miss the simplicity.I put it up next to my 4 range, for the cl, and it takes alot of noise out(obviously).I think part of the decision to consider the trade, is partly based on the pivot candle running away.If its too big(thus, requiring a larger stop), just wait for the next signal.Also, getting in at the beginning of the swing is important, obviously.And , what are the sizes of the swings previous to the present signal.So many things to consider, when choosing to pass or not.It seems like PandaWarriors filtering , patience, and discipline is really what is making the difference, and as another post referred to, waiting for a specific scenario to evolve, and then strike....Im not answering for Pandawarrior, just had some thoughts.

In all fairness, I've taken quite a few regardless of the R:R. Since I am a scalper, as long as the conditions are present, I think I can take them all. I passed on one today because the risk was bigger than normal but the result was the same. A nice winner. I think the idea is buy strength and sell weakness. One of the guys I used as a model for this takes them all regardless of the risk bar....he rarely loses and he uses a 5M chart for this. I saw him take a trade after a 40 tick bar once. No way I could do that, but he made his target and his targets are much larger than mine.

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 PandaWarrior 
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also, do you mind sharing your template?

Yep....

here you go:

Open a 1M ETH
Place a 89SMA on it. Doesnt matter if its a color changer or not
Place a 21EMA on it. Doesnt matter if it changes color or not.

Thats it. Read price action around the MA's after that.

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 madLyfe 
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Yep....

here you go:

Open a 1M ETH
Place a 89SMA on it. Doesnt matter if its a color changer or not
Place a 21EMA on it. Doesnt matter if it changes color or not.

Thats it. Read price action around the MA's after that.

thanks panda.. ive been a silent reader and enjoy your info!

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 PandaWarrior 
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I'm on another computer besides my trading one so I have no charts today....but it was a tough day for me.....I had an itchy trigger finger. I kept wanting to short when the chart was long.....not sure why but I could't shake it....so I traded it on sim. Predictably, I was stopped out all three times I tried it.

But I managed to go long when the chart said to go long, made some money, lost some money, then finally got the short signal I was so desperately looking for and made my daily goal. I like to average about 30 ticks a day but I will take more of course when its good trading and if its tough, I'll settle with whatever I have at the end of my session. I nailed the 30 ticks minutes before I had to quit.

After that, I shut down the platform, walked out the door to run some errands and ended up at the hospital all day where my dad had driven himself after experiencing very rapid heartbeat.....a resting 160bpm it turns out. Anyway it looks like he will be fine but is staying the night for some tests and observation.

Today is probably my last CL trading day for the month. I've always had a hard time in December and so last year I promised I would not trade in December. So since I have the option to not trade, I'm not. Instead, I am going to play around with forex on sim and see if I can apply the same lessons I've learned to forex and if I can, I may start doing some longer term swing trades on small lots to perhaps look at a long term wealth building plan.

Cheers.

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 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Instead, I am going to play around with forex on sim and see if I can apply the same lessons I've learned to forex and if I can, I may start doing some longer term swing trades on small lots to perhaps look at a long term wealth building plan.

Cheers.

Hey, no stealing plans..... haha...

Forex is murder in December. I think all things traded are terrible in December....

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 PandaWarrior 
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Hey, no stealing plans..... haha...

Forex is murder in December. I think all things traded are terrible in December....

Thats why I am sim. But it does keep me in practice......I would sim Crude but I want to see if I swing trade forex off much larger time frame charts.

I remember you mentioning you were swinging forex a while back....sorry to steal your stuff....thankfully there's enough to go around.....

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 PandaWarrior 
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Its 10:15PM here in the desert southwest. I had a question about some brokerage issues and so I emailed @Matt from not really expecting an answer any time soon especially since I don't have an account there. I just know him from the forum.

To my surprise, back came an answer in about 15 minutes. Then a follow up with more information from him unsolicited. Needless to say, I gotta say I'm impressed.....that being said, its midnight in Florida and Matt should be resting up for another trading day tomorrow......

Thanks Matt.

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 worldwary 
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I'm glad you brought up the concept of knowing what kind of trader you are. This is an issue I've been dealing with lately and it likely explains a lot of the difficulty I've had in the past.

After years of experimentation with different trading styles, I've come to the conclusion that I am not a scalper. I prefer to look for larger moves that can play out over the course of several hours to several days. This generally means larger stops, which in turn means smaller position sizes.

Like you, I feel much more relaxed when I resolve to take only the kinds of trades I'm good at while ignoring the setups that don't match my aptitude. It is difficult to go back and forth between the two trading styles and if you try to trade both ways, you can drive yourself crazy thinking about all the setups you've missed.

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 worldwary 
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To add to that, a worse problem is when you see a good longer-term setup, but trade it with too much size as if it's a scalp. This is a recipe for disaster. You will almost always get stopped out.

Trading tactics (position size, stop placement, etc.) need to match up with your trading style and timeframe. A difficult lesson that I've learned over the years.

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 madLyfe 
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got a nice simple chart on the side with TF on it to play around with on sim when 6E is fluttering around..



one thing i know for me personally that would be troublesome would be that if i sit and watch the chart for the hours that i trade i would try taking all setups and would imagine wouldnt be profitable for me.. i know this will sound funny but i feel like it works better for me if i am not constantly watching but glance over occasionally and see it setting up, the trade then usually works out..

thats prolly confusing but ive noticed that in my trading overall..

also you were talking about another guy(when you were referring to the size of the entry candle, its size, and risk) who works with this method as well. do you have any other resources for this type of method of trading?

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 PandaWarrior 
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madLyfe View Post
got a nice simple chart on the side with TF on it to play around with on sim when 6E is fluttering around..



one thing i know for me personally that would be troublesome would be that if i sit and watch the chart for the hours that i trade i would try taking all setups and would imagine wouldnt be profitable for me.. i know this will sound funny but i feel like it works better for me if i am not constantly watching but glance over occasionally and see it setting up, the trade then usually works out..

thats prolly confusing but ive noticed that in my trading overall..

also you were talking about another guy(when you were referring to the size of the entry candle, its size, and risk) who works with this method as well. do you have any other resources for this type of method of trading?

Nice simple chart but I can't seem correlate the two MA's you have. Are they the 89SMA and 21EMA?

I watch charts for exactly 3 hours a day. No more. I get decision fatigue after that. I to have noticed that if I am otherwise engaged and I glance over and see the set ups, those seem to work better. I have no idea why, they just do.

Actually the guy I mentioned uses a different method than I do but he does not hesitate to enter on a large bar like that. I think for him it represents a strong entry bar. In other words if you are looking for momentum, thats better momentum than a small bar.....I can't wrap my head emotionally around that yet but I supposed one day I will. For now though, I am quite happy with the way things are progressing.

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 madLyfe 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Nice simple chart but I can't seem correlate the two MA's you have. Are they the 89SMA and 21EMA?

I watch charts for exactly 3 hours a day. No more. I get decision fatigue after that. I to have noticed that if I am otherwise engaged and I glance over and see the set ups, those seem to work better. I have no idea why, they just do.

Actually the guy I mentioned uses a different method than I do but he does not hesitate to enter on a large bar like that. I think for him it represents a strong entry bar. In other words if you are looking for momentum, thats better momentum than a small bar.....I can't wrap my head emotionally around that yet but I supposed one day I will. For now though, I am quite happy with the way things are progressing.

ya those are the 89SMA and 21EMA.. i have also added the 50SMA too just to see if that works better for me instead of the 89.. and thanks for the explanation!

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 monpere 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Nice simple chart but I can't seem correlate the two MA's you have. Are they the 89SMA and 21EMA?

I watch charts for exactly 3 hours a day. No more. I get decision fatigue after that. I to have noticed that if I am otherwise engaged and I glance over and see the set ups, those seem to work better. I have no idea why, they just do.

Actually the guy I mentioned uses a different method than I do but he does not hesitate to enter on a large bar like that. I think for him it represents a strong entry bar. In other words if you are looking for momentum, thats better momentum than a small bar.....I can't wrap my head emotionally around that yet but I supposed one day I will. For now though, I am quite happy with the way things are progressing.

When I use to trade stocks on minute bars with this type of risk management, on very large bars that negate my risk/reward, I would risk half the bar instead of the whole bar. The idea would be, if this is truly strong momentum, then the bar should not retrace that much.

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 bobarian 
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one situation that has always puzzled me, is trading around the news.Some people say, dont trade 10 minutes before or after.What i think, is, when price really moves because of the news, it pulls the mas way out, and the question is, is the 1st retracement to to the ma actually reliable, as there typically isnt a trend.Honestly, it seems to me, that i have to wait till the market resumes a reliable trend.Any thoughts?

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 bluemele 
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bobarian View Post
one situation that has always puzzled me, is trading around the news.Some people say, dont trade 10 minutes before or after.What i think, is, when price really moves because of the news, it pulls the mas way out, and the question is, is the 1st retracement to to the ma actually reliable, as there typically isnt a trend.Honestly, it seems to me, that i have to wait till the market resumes a reliable trend.Any thoughts?

Yes, stay away from the news...

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 Surly 
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Yes, stay away from the news...

Big players use the lack of liquidity during news releases to move the market away from value very quickly in order to trap traders into losing trades and force other traders to chase if they want a piece of the move. Often the market will set up in such a way as to "tip its hand" prior to many news releases. If this is the case, entering prior to the news release is often the safest move (assuming you're trading a liquid market). That said, you have to have a reasonably good idea of what the market is trying to do to take a position prior to a news release - and many news releases do not occur in a context in which it is clear what the market is trying to do. These are the ones to avoid... but then, these are also the times you should be waiting for more information anyway.

just another view...

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 liquidcci 
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bobarian View Post
one situation that has always puzzled me, is trading around the news.Some people say, dont trade 10 minutes before or after.What i think, is, when price really moves because of the news, it pulls the mas way out, and the question is, is the 1st retracement to to the ma actually reliable, as there typically isnt a trend.Honestly, it seems to me, that i have to wait till the market resumes a reliable trend.Any thoughts?

The problem with entering in around news is the danger factor. Swings can be so hard and violent risk getting stops jumped and getting massive slippage against you. For me it has nothing do with MA but risk management. Plenty of other trades out there without having to play with fire.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 monpere 
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Surly View Post
Big players use the lack of liquidity during news releases to move the market away from value very quickly in order to trap traders into losing trades and force other traders to chase if they want a piece of the move. Often the market will set up in such a way as to "tip its hand" prior to many news releases. If this is the case, entering prior to the news release is often the safest move (assuming you're trading a liquid market). That said, you have to have a reasonably good idea of what the market is trying to do to take a position prior to a news release - and many news releases do not occur in a context in which it is clear what the market is trying to do. These are the ones to avoid... but then, these are also the times you should be waiting for more information anyway.

just another view...

Playing the news for guys like us is a guessing game. The big players who do play the news, generally know the news way before we do. We are then at the mercy of how they want to move the market. If you are wrong, you run the high risk of being more wrong then you planned for, when your stop loss is leapfrogged and you get your stop filled 50 ticks worst then where you placed it, because of the radical volatility. I understand that some Forex brokers even delay filling stop orders during fast moving news driven events.

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 PandaWarrior 
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i stop trading and close any position 5 mins prior to any news release that might affect my instrument. I usually stay out until at least 2-3 mins after the news as well. I find that most of the time, price continues doing whatever it was doing prior to the news within a few minutes anyway.

The exception is those times when price is driven far away from value, then I usually have to wait quite a long time before anything worthwhile is available for trading.

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 cory 
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more thoughts on using 2 MAs The Floor Trader Method

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 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
more thoughts on using 2 MAs The Floor Trader Method


I've not seen this before but its probably the best explanation I've seen. Excellent article on a simple method. I've book marked it for future reference. It's exactly what I try to do. There are some nuances I think I will benefit from.

Thank you Cory.

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 Surly 
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monpere View Post
Playing the news for guys like us is a guessing game. The big players who do play the news, generally know the news way before we do. We are then at the mercy of how they want to move the market. If you are wrong, you run the high risk of being more wrong then you planned for, when your stop loss is leapfrogged and you get your stop filled 50 ticks worst then where you placed it, because of the radical volatility. I understand that some Forex brokers even delay filling stop orders during fast moving news driven events.

Hmmm. Is there any legal trade that is not a guessing game? If anybody could prove that a "big player" knew the news and traded based on this knowledge prior to a news release, they would get busted - I hope that's common knowledge. We all know that strong markets can shrug off bad news and weak ones can drop on good news. The news is just another piece of the game. If someone can use a news release to further their plans, they will - including the knowledge that many will avoid trading them so the lack of liquidity can make the trade more profitable. again... just another view (my last on this topic b/c I don't want to derail Pdub's thread...)

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 bobarian 
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cory View Post
more thoughts on using 2 MAs The Floor Trader Method

i took a peak at this method, and i agree , this is very similar(as far as i can tell) to what Panda is doing.I think, at the end of the day, the moving avgs that an individual uses, could vary.The trader that stays with what he/she has for a while, will start to see the patterns.The hardest part though, is waiting and identifying those trends , that have the nicely behaving pullbacks.It seems to me, the market spends more time in transition/chop, and trend reversal.I did notice, in the floor trader method, that he said he took 11 trades in a whole week.That would indicate to me, that he was waiting for the correct scenario.That scenario, i think, is going to give the best win %...just some thoughts

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  #279 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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RE the Floor Trader Method. I think the faster the chart, the more signals you will get. Also the larger the daily range is of your instrument, the more signals it produces. I am using a one minute chart on CL. This means I see enough signals most days to make 3-10 trades a morning. In any event, I limit myself to ten a day. Any more than that and I begin to fade. The waiting and the discipline to wait for 10 trades is enough for me on any one day.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 researcher247 
Chicago, IL
 
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The floor trader method was marketed by a guy named Steve.

I bought it many many years ago; it was not explained very well and there are other traders on this board who also believe the product he was selling was not as clear as it should be.

I took this concept and applied it to a method that efuturevision website promotes and I now use it on very short-term volume charts and 12 hour charts in forex.

I personally believe the larger timeframes (equivalent to 2-7 minute charts) with higher timeframe confirmation is the most accurate way to trade and gives both a high win% and a good reward to risk when trading with the trend.

With regard to consolidation; if a market is 'boxing' or not taking out the most recent high or swing low and NOT making clear higher highs and higher lows (and vice versa) AND the m.a.'s (longer-term MA's) are not 'sloped' in the direction of the trade; wait 15 minutes (or less in crude); it will change.

Crude is by far the smoothest worldwide trading vehicle in the last several years; followed closely by TF/GC and/or 6E/FDAX.

Hard stops are critical though--these freight trains turn hard and fast and you simply have to be patient yet never hesitate for a moment when a setup happens, as the trades play out fairly fast (CL & FDAX).

Unless you can trade divergence with a better than .8reward to risk with a high win % (70%) I would advise all traders to develop ways to become more patient and NEVER break your written rules and trading plan. If you can do that your edge is there for the taking when the market is clearly trending and you can usually scoop up 2 to 3 winners in a row and be done for the market or the day or your daily goal.

peace

Hedvig

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 sleepy 
London, UK
 
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Further commentary on Floor Trader Method can be found here:

Advanced system #13 (The Floor Trader System) | Forex Strategies & Systems Revealed

sleepy

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 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
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sleepy View Post

thanks for the post.. i am always 'in the mkt' for simple stuff like this..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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  #283 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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No charts for a week.....I'm starting to have withdrawal symptoms......on the other hand, I am enjoying the time off. Spent about an hour just sitting out in the sun this afternoon. What an incredible experience. No phone, no laptop, no tv, just silence. Haven't done that in a long time.

Watching How the Grinch Stole Christmas with the family now....time to go.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #284 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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  #285 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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I receive free daily email from Zaner group, one of their analyst also uses 2 ma method
Larry Baer's Traditional Trending Strategy Video - YouTube

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 bluemele 
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cory View Post
I receive free daily email from Zaner group, one of their analyst also uses 2 ma method
Larry Baer's Traditional Trending Strategy Video - YouTube

That is great. "I save the money management and exits for my clients so give me a call"

How do you do with his setups?

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 cory 
the coin hunter
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bluemele View Post
That is great. "I save the money management and exits for my clients so give me a call"

How do you do with his setups?

will let you know when I get around to it.

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  #288 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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A quick question to the forex guys out there. I have been looking at forex for some longer term trades but have found I can day trade it as well. For longer term trades, the basic platforms that come from brokers like Oanda work just fine, but for day trading, I have found I despise the platforms I have seen so far. It appears the default forex platform is MetaTrader. I hate that one as well.

What I am looking for is a broker that supports Ninja Trader. MBTrading does but something about them bothers me, not sure how to quantify it but suffice to say, I'd rather not use them.

Does any one have suggestions on how to use Ninja Trader for forex. I am ok with using any broker that will support them as long as they have a good reputation.

Thanks

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #289 (permalink)
 Zondor 
Portland Oregon, United States
 
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I thought Forex brokers are bucket shops.

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 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
A quick question to the forex guys out there. I have been looking at forex for some longer term trades but have found I can day trade it as well. For longer term trades, the basic platforms that come from brokers like Oanda work just fine, but for day trading, I have found I despise the platforms I have seen so far. It appears the default forex platform is MetaTrader. I hate that one as well.

What I am looking for is a broker that supports Ninja Trader. MBTrading does but something about them bothers me, not sure how to quantify it but suffice to say, I'd rather not use them.

Does any one have suggestions on how to use Ninja Trader for forex. I am ok with using any broker that will support them as long as they have a good reputation.

Thanks

I have an account with MBTrading, and I understand how you feel about them. I use NinjaTrader and Interactive Brokers for longer term ETF trades, but I've done a few forex trades with Interactive Brokers also, they seem pretty solid and reliable with forex as well.

 
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 bluemele 
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PFGBEST has been someone I have been using on Demo and the demo servers SUCK! I was told the Live servers are much better....

I personally LOVE MT4, but I hate the order entry aspects. The platform is pretty sweet in my eyes, but needs some getting used to as it is very utilitarian.

Also, remember that 'bucket shops' will trade against you, but if you are doing long term trades and/or do not put in your stops/limits then you are fine. NO STOPS! haha...

Personally, my favorite forex brokers are IBFX (just bought by the evil TradeStation) so it could be ruined. If you are opening an account with more than 20K, then I would go with CITIFX if they approve you. Next in line would be Oanda but if you need NT, then Interactive Brokers, MB Trading and PFGBEST are the only one's I know of.

If you are swing or Position trading, then be careful on SWAPS, so CITIFX will probably be a better stop as well. Plus, since CITIFX is the only 'bank' that allows you to trade FX, then you will be able to avoid FIFO and Hedging restrictions etc..

FIFO is pretty much a moot issue with most MT4 capable brokers now anyways. But like Oanda has terrible swap rates and the swaps can kill you. I held a AUDUSD SHORT for about 2 months and it hurt....

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 bluemele 
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I suggest highly getting somewhat comfortable with MT4.

Data goes back 20+ years on majors.

I couldn't get very far with PFGBEST or GAIN (forex.com) back in the day...

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
PFGBEST has been someone I have been using on Demo and the demo servers SUCK! I was told the Live servers are much better....

I personally LOVE MT4, but I hate the order entry aspects. The platform is pretty sweet in my eyes, but needs some getting used to as it is very utilitarian.

Also, remember that 'bucket shops' will trade against you, but if you are doing long term trades and/or do not put in your stops/limits then you are fine. NO STOPS! haha...

Personally, my favorite forex brokers are IBFX (just bought by the evil TradeStation) so it could be ruined. If you are opening an account with more than 20K, then I would go with CITIFX if they approve you. Next in line would be Oanda but if you need NT, then Interactive Brokers, MB Trading and PFGBEST are the only one's I know of.

If you are swing or Position trading, then be careful on SWAPS, so CITIFX will probably be a better stop as well. Plus, since CITIFX is the only 'bank' that allows you to trade FX, then you will be able to avoid FIFO and Hedging restrictions etc..

FIFO is pretty much a moot issue with most MT4 capable brokers now anyways. But like Oanda has terrible swap rates and the swaps can kill you. I held a AUDUSD SHORT for about 2 months and it hurt....

Since I know nothing of the forex intricacies, can you define the term "SWAPS" and why the FIFO issue is important and why using a "bank" makes the issue go away.

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 PandaWarrior 
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PFGBEST has several platforms, among them is this MotiveWave: Stocks, Futures, Options and Forex Trading/Analysis Platform this platform appears to have many of the features I would like in a trading platform but the one that stands out the most is native OSX compatibility. This just changed the dynamics of my trading world. If this platform is good and works well on my Mac, I may have the best of everything!

PFGBEST also supports Mac, who knew!

Looks like I will be engaged in a demo on my Mac for the next month.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Since I know nothing of the forex intricacies, can you define the term "SWAPS" and why the FIFO issue is important and why using a "bank" makes the issue go away.

Here is a setup I just took with my brand new 250K DEMO account!



My goal this year is to work towards building a solid long term (swing and position) type technique using FX. I am VERY familiar with FX through a year of diving deep into forexfactory.com and learning a lot along the way. I am a fan of several threads that I 'lurk' and have learned a lot from guys over there. However, the community just isn't the same as Big Mike's...

Anyways, SWAP is the difference between what one country pays on on holding their currencies vs. the other pair. As you know, you buy GBPUSD, you are going LONG Pound, and short USD. So, you look at current swap rates and can deduce roughly what you SHOULD be getting.

Forex News @ Forex Factory (down on the bottom left)

GBP = .5% (buying)
USD < .25% (selling)

Difference of .25% technically, but is a lot more complicated because of the 'amounts' of currency you actually buy etc.
Swap Rates, Interest Rate swaps, FX Rates - Forex Trading Tools - Interbank FX

You will also see that most brokers 'jip' you of your swap and actually becomes a profit center for them. The funny thing is that bucket shops don't want you to ROBOT them to death (they will shut down your account), nor do they set things up conveniently for positive swaps (hurts position trading) so they really guide you into a sweet spot of not too much trading, but oh just right for them to burn-n-churn.

Remember this, your broker is WORKING AGAINST YOU. THEY ARE 100% WORKING AGAINST YOU AND DO NOT WISH THAT YOU MAKE A MILLION DOLLARS ON THEIR WATCH. They are competing with you on every single trade unless they can successfully hedge but even then they still want to make money off of you!

Per CitiFx, I don't know their swaps, but I imagine they are better as OANDA's are terrible for certain and that is why I am not currently considering them. I have had IBFX for 1.5 years and love them personally, but again they were just bought and no Ninja Trader...

Not that it would affect you, but if you ever read about the MT4 issues with forex.com and FXCM it will shock you to see how blatantly they toyed with their customers to take their money.

OH, and if you see down in the bottom window, you see my P&L on the trade. It turned a profitable trade into a loser.... Just from SWAP. This trade was an accident as I am in with 2% of my account, but I meant to do only 1% since it is counter-trend on the daily and weekly.

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 bluemele 
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Oh, and my understanding as to why a 'bank' is better as they aren't under the Dodd/Frank bill that affects all CFTC's, IB's etc..

First in, First Out was to eliminate HFT and pushing prices down and somehow the only people that actually are stuck with this are RETAIL traders!!!

No Hedging started in 2010 (October) as well as 50:1 leverage limits for all US brokers. Somehow retail traders have caused the demise of the current financial situation and especially through FOREX! I think there was some hangover from when they broke (almost) the bank of England.. haha...

No country likes people playing with their currency until it works in there favor... Funny how that works.

Anyways, No Hedging sucks because some systems require it...

By being a bank, you just hold currency in one account and the opposite currency in another 'account'. They are not subject to the same Doodles and Franklin bills...

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 bobarian 
whitestone, new york
 
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is the liquidity good enough for safe trading?(forex)

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 bluemele 
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bobarian View Post
is the liquidity good enough for safe trading?(forex)

Some market maker/bucket shop brokers have guarantee's that fills are 'mandatory'.

Forex is by far the largest market in the world. So, liquidity is not a problem. However, you will get slippage and forex is not as competitive as futures when considering commissions if trading within normal RTH.

If you can trade well under daily, then in my opinion futures is much better (also for taxes). But, if you want to trade long term position or swing, Forex can be a great market. You can also swing/position trade futures as well, but in my opinion they move differently.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Here is my first workspace. Its just something I am playing around with trying to get it set up so it works more or less like my ninja workspace does.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Big Mike 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Here is my first workspace. Its just something I am playing around with trying to get it set up so it works more or less like my ninja workspace does.


Nice, if you have a chance maybe you will post in the below thread to give us your insight and feedback. I've heard some good things about the platform in the last few months.



Mike

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