The PandaWarrior Chronicles - futures io
futures io



The PandaWarrior Chronicles


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one PandaWarrior with 945 posts (6,445 thanks)
    2. looks_two tigertrader with 101 posts (998 thanks)
    3. looks_3 tderrick with 88 posts (205 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 85 posts (437 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one tigertrader with 9.9 thanks per post
    2. looks_two PandaWarrior with 6.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 5.1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 VinceVirgil with 3.1 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 311,548 views
    2. thumb_up 11,047 thanks given
    3. group 162 followers
    1. forum 2,157 posts
    2. attach_file 207 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

Closed Thread
 
Search this Thread
 

The PandaWarrior Chronicles

(login for full post details)
  #2101 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


kmvkmvkmv View Post
Hi PandaWarrior,


Where can i find that ADR indicator? Thanks.

Here you go... I think the zip is buried in one of the session packages if you want me to feed you some of
those to load.

cs assembly is easy enough

anaVolatilityBandsV37.cs

cs file import instructions.txt


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2102 (permalink)
kmvkmvkmv
Germany
 
 
Posts: 30 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 36 given, 57 received


tderrick View Post
Here you go... I think the zip is buried in one of the session packages if you want me to feed you some of
those to load.

cs assembly is easy enough

Attachment 136586

Attachment 136587

Thank you!

The following user says Thank You to kmvkmvkmv for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2103 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,084 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,547 given, 98,541 received

@tderrick, please do not post Elite attachments in non-Elite threads. Link to it instead. Linking is ALWAYS the best method, so the link is always to the most recent version as well.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2104 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Been gone for a few weeks. Mostly I've been on a quest for more simplification and fewer digital inputs. I am finding I rather like the reduced noise in my life.

As far as journalling, I maintain a paper journal and a private journal on blogspot that a few friends have access to.

I will post from time to time but I've eliminated 95% of my online activity, reduced my notifications from the forum and in general reduced the number of stress inputs by a significant amount.

For those of you that have my email address and would like to maintain contact on a more personal level, please use the email address for that purpose.

Trade well.

Brian

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2105 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Been gone for a few weeks. Mostly I've been on a quest for more simplification and fewer digital inputs. I am finding I rather like the reduced noise in my life.

As far as journalling, I maintain a paper journal and a private journal on blogspot that a few friends have access to.

I will post from time to time but I've eliminated 95% of my online activity, reduced my notifications from the forum and in general reduced the number of stress inputs by a significant amount.

For those of you that have my email address and would like to maintain contact on a more personal level, please use the email address for that purpose.

Trade well.

Brian


Brian has left the building


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2106 (permalink)
 suko 
Market Wizard
Kyoto, Japan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TW TOS LiveVol
Broker: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Trading: VXX, VIX, SPY
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,320 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 836 given, 1,409 received

Sounds like what James Altucher has been doing. Did you get rid of all the possessions you have not used in the past two weeks?

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to suko for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2107 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker: IB/IQFeed
Trading: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 786 received


suko View Post
Sounds like what James Altucher has been doing. Did you get rid of all the possessions you have not used in the past two weeks?

Reminds me of my girlfriend when I'm asking her if something belongs to me or her - "close your eyes" she says, "everything that you can see is yours".

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to Adamus for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2108 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


suko View Post
Sounds like what James Altucher has been doing. Did you get rid of all the possessions you have not used in the past two weeks?

No. I've been reducing the amount of digital input. I've found I really like it. Less is more. Less is less stressful.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2109 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I'm also trading far less than I was. One or two trades a day. Maybe 4 if I have a couple of losers.

The key to this game, let the winners run. its as simple as that.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 11 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2110 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I got this by way of TraderFeed which was referencing Slate Magazine - Politics, Business, Technology, and the Arts

Hoodoos, Hedge Funds, and Alibis: Victor Niederhoffer on Being Wrong
By Kathryn Schulz
"When you first contacted me about an interview on errors, I made the error of excessive self-esteem. I thought for a second that you thought I was a sagacious personage who had led a not uneventful life that might have something useful to say to your readers. But then when you mentioned [Alan] Dershowitz , it came to me in a flash."
/blogs/thewrongstuff/2010/06/21/hoodoos_hedge_funds_and_alibis_victor_niederhoffer_on_being_wrong/jcr:content/body/slate_image
Thus began one of 26 e-mails (not counting those dedicated to the logistics of our interview) that I received from Victor Niederhoffer after inviting him to participate in this series. Niederhoffer is a hedge fund manager, a former partner of George Soros, a five-time U.S. Nationals squash champion, and the best-selling author of The Education of a Speculator and Practical Speculation . Those successes notwithstanding, Niederhoffer is best known for two spectacular financial blow-ups. In 1997, a risky investment in Thai bank stocks combined with a dramatic one-day drop in the Dow Jones to permanently close the doors of Niederhoffer Investments. Ten years later, having recouped his losses, Niederhoffer saw his Matador Fund, buffeted by the 2007 credit crunch, self-destruct.
Niederhoffer's e-mails suggested a man already obsessed with wrongness. In them, he referenced the statistical concept of path dependence; shared a series of proverbs about the game of checkers (of 5,000 such proverbs, he hazarded, about 250 concerned error); meditated on the difference between Type One mistakes (excessive credulity) and Type Two mistakes (excessive skepticism) (he himself is much more prone to Type One, he says: "I'm tremendously gullible"); observed that "one should be careful of multitasking or multiromancing"; sent me the citations for hoodoo in theOxford English Dictionary (a hoodoo is something or someone that brings bad luck); and noted that the harpooner in Moby Dick would have made a great interview subject for this series. Finally, he pointed out that the word error has no antonym. "In retrospect," he wrote, "I know much too much about errors and much too little about the opposite, whatever it is."
***
I've enjoyed getting your e-mails. It sounds like you've thought a lot about being wrong.
Well, the reason you contacted me, to call a spade a spade, is that I'm sort of infamous for having made a big, notorious, terrible error not once but twice in my market career.
Let's talk about those errors. The first was your investment in the Thai baht, which pretty much wiped you out when the Thai stock market crashed in 1997.
I made so many errors there it's pathetic. I made one of my favorite errors: "The mouse with one hole is quickly cornered." That is key. There are certain decisions you make in life that are irreversible, that lead you into a path you can't get out of, and unless you have more than one escape clause, the adversary can gang up on you and destroy you. What else? I didn't have a proper foundation. I was not sufficiently private in my activities. I was playing poker with men named Doc. I must've made a hundred errors on that one, but those are five or six that come to mind.
And then there's the greatest error of all, which is that I had delusions of grandeur. Unfortunately I was so successful for so many years in that particular field that I began to believe in my own success. I thought that because my method worked in markets that I knew about and had quantified, I could apply the same methods to something I didn't know about. And I had as an example [George] Soros, who would always say, "I made the most money in things I don't know about."
Did you have a sense that the crisis was coming—a period of dread before the shoe dropped—or did it hit you out of nowhere?
You know sometimes people describe a situation where they see the grim reaper behind them, reaching out with his scythe? I was ice skating the weekend before this horrible crash and all of sudden I started shivering, knowing that if all the forces were aligned against me for one more day, it could lead to an avalanche. I wasn't in that terrible of shape in the previous weeks and days, but I knew I was vulnerable. I knew that if my enemy came in with one terrible final swoop, he could cause me disaster.
Who do you see as your enemy in this situation?
The brokers who had the opposite side of the trades and the people on the floor who had the opposite side of my position in the related markets. They all knew that if I was hurting in one market, I'd have to liquidate in the other markets. Whenever someone's in trouble, it circulates around Wall Street; you'd be amazed how just one small fish is enough to stop the wheels of commerce for long enough to relieve that person of his funds. And then the market goes back to doing exactly what it was going to do beforehand. I still think that the crash of Oct. 27, 1997, was basically due to brokers running my position against me, knowing that I was on the ropes. The market had its greatest drop in the previous 10 years that day. And then the next day, once they were able to force me out, it went up more than it dropped.
I've heard that Soros, among others, cautioned you against the Thai investment. Why didn't you listen to the naysayers?
Well, Soros would be the first to tell you that his predictions are completely random. He never says anything that doesn't jibe with his current position or his hoped-for outcome. And he's chronically bearish. He's chronically thinking that the world needs a central planner to put it to rights and that the market itself is too prone to disaster.
I think a much better view is that the stock market never rises unless there's a wall of fear it has to climb. When the public is most frightened, only the strong are left, and that's when the market is in the best possible hands. I call it taking out the canes. Whenever disaster strikes, the very sagacious wealthy people take their canes, and they hobble down from their stately mansions on Fifth Avenue, and they buy stocks to the extent of their bank balances, and then a week or two later, the market rises, they deposit the overplus in their accounts, invest it in blue-chip real estate, and retire back to their stately mansions. That's probably the best way of making money, to be a specialist in panics. Whenever there's panic hanging in the air, that's a great time to invest.
But I assume that's what you were thinking when you ignored the risk in Thailand, and that didn't work out so well.
There's no magic bullet that will make you money all the time, but what I said can be quantified and has been quantified and certainly works for the U.S. market. My basic methodology, which I developed 30 or 40 years ago and which has been widely copied and stolen and which about the half the industry uses—i.e., that the interrelations between markets are predictive and can be quantified—I happen to believe that this methodology is quite valid and I still use it today. And every now and then I can keep my head above water.
How did it feel to be so wrong in such a high-stakes situation?
It was my first real taste of total disaster. I had pretty much lived a charmed life until that time. I had won some awards as the best-performing fund the previous year, and I had never had a customer lose money with me. I had an unprecedented, too-good-to-be-true kind of record.
When it happened, I went through all the stages of grief: anger, denial, sadness, everything. My sister happens to be a practicing psychiatrist, and she said that of the 11 symptoms of suicide, I had 10 of them. I was destroyed. I had lost money for my customers and that was very terrible. And I had lost my feeling of competence in my chosen field. And I had I lost all my own money, a lot of people were depending on me who would now have to fend for themselves, so it caused a great spillover of grief, too.
That suggests that your mistake affected your social relations, too.
Oh, absolutely. A lot of people were rightfully distressed and displeased, and my social position was definitely much reduced. I lost almost all my friends, and instead of being the head of the family, I became the subject of skepticism. And of course my customers were very upset with me—"How could I have been so stupid?" Fortunately, in most of my disasters, I'm the one who's been the biggest loser. I made what some people would consider the idiotic mistake of believing in my own ideas and putting all my money in the same funds I ran for my customers. So not only did I lose my business, but I lost my personal fortune also. I was once quite a wealthy man and I'm not quite so wealthy anymore, as is appropriate.
On the other hand, I have a number of people who have stood by me through thick and thin. But anyway, the main problem isn't other people. The main problem is when you yourself begin to doubt whether you have what it takes, whether your raison d'ętre is valid, whether you have a rightful place in the firmament.
Ten years after that first crisis, you were disastrously wrong again, when your Matador Fund folded after losing more than 75 percent of its worth. What happened? Did you make the same mistakes or new ones?
In both cases I was in over my head. I didn't have the capital to be strong enough to provide a backup in the case of unforeseen events. I didn't have a proper foundation. I was playing with adversaries who were stronger than me and who actually made the rules. My base of operations was not diversified enough, and I was vulnerable to forces I couldn't withstand. I was too vainglorious. In my opinion, those are recurring errors behind most disasters.
But also, most people have, in one way or another, a stop loss. If they go to Vegas with $10,000, they say I'm not going to spend more than $5,000. But they never say, "Hey, when I win a certain amount, that's when I'm going to quit." I'd had this incredible string of successes where I made 50, 100 percent, year after year. And in 2006 I'd won the award again as the best-performing fund—you can imagine how reluctant they were to give me the award a second time after my first disaster—but I didn't take account of this. I didn't have a stop-gain, if you will.
Is it reasonable to assume that you're going to make one of these massive mistakes a third time?
Well, fortunately I'm not in Thailand anymore, and I'm not in options anymore. And I'm at an age—especially with my seven kids and my 4-year-old son—where it would be extraordinarily reprehensible to have one more excursion into the River Styx. I'm much more prudent now. I'm more aware of my own liability to err. I've always been a humble person, but I wasn't humble enough. I'm not the great exemplar of unrivaled success that I used to be, and my wife always reminds me of my liability to err in case I'm not beating up on it enough myself.
What do you feel like you've learned?
It's crucial to have good models, to learn from people who are successful and productive and honorable and happy. I was fortunate, I've had some fantastic mentors. My father was my greatest and most continuing example. I always wish I could be as little prone to error as he was. He was the happiest man alive, and he never had to resort to duplicity because everything that came out of him was exactly from his inner self; there was no difference between the input and the output for him. But regrettably, duplicity is very, very important in life. The direct approach always creates tremendous obstruction and friction from the adversary, so often the indirect approach is necessary.
I agree that it's lovely to have good mentors, but can't successful, productive, honorable, happy people get things wrong sometimes as well?
Let's turn it on its head for a second with one of my favorite topics, the hoodoo. There are certain people you meet in life who are like the locomotives that always used to blow up—people who, wherever they go, disaster always ensues. One of my main pieces of advice is: Stay away from hoodoos. Sometimes hoodoos are very affectionate and they like to hug you, and I always burn my shirt right after being touched by a hoodoo.
How do you know a hoodoo when you see one?
First of all, a lot of them frequent areas that are rather ephemeral. Many waterfront communities are peopled with hoodoos. And they generally have a string of failures behind them, they generally are in need of capital, they generally talk a much better game than they play. And they often flatter you and pretend to be your very amiable friend before they really know you. Hoodoos are very good at what they do. A lot of times they command the center of attention and they try to dazzle you with the trappings of success—which when you look into it you find is a will o' the wisp.
Speaking of those who are around when disaster ensues, do you think the people at our major financial institutions are at all chastened by getting it so wrong?
I don't know what the financial institutions feel because they don't talk to me. I'm not in their firmament anymore. They can't get any business out of me, so they don't have any reason to devolve their inner feelings on me. But I know that it's very helpful to have a wealthy fairy godmother who can bail you out when you're in trouble, as certain banks and brokerage houses do. And I imagine that after being bailed out by their former—by their fairy godmother (we won't mention the word "cronies"), they feel that they've been given the breath of life again. And now they have to genuflect before the fairy godmother and be spanked in public and humiliated and their reputations are hopefully ruined, as they should be. But on the other hand, they don't have to face the actual disaster of financial ruination. They don't have to bite the bullet and pay for their own mistakes like me and 99.99 percent of other people who have had great failures.
I'm interested in something you said in one of your e-mails, that it was a mistake to play a flawless squash game.
As a squash player, I was gifted. I had all the right things going for me. I practiced. I was very good with the racket, and I had tremendous anticipation. But I tended to play an errorless game by hitting a slice on my backhand, which took a lot of power off the ball. That wasn't a disaster, but it was definitely a weakness in my game. My opponents always used to say that on a good day they could beat me, because they could hit more spectacular shots than me. But they never did. I went for about 10 years without losing a game, except to [the great Pakistani squash player] Sharif Kahn. He made about six, seven errors a game—but he also made eight or nine winners. I would make about zero errors per game but only one or two winners. He had the edge on me about 10-4, and I regret that I was never willing to accept the risky shots and confrontations, never willing to play a more error-full game.
It sounds like you wish you'd taken more risks as a squash player.
In my market career, I took too many risks. In my squash career, I didn't take enough.
I'm surprised. I would have expected risk to be an-across-the-board characteristic—that an aggressive, risk-taking investor would be an aggressive, risk-taking squash player.
I wish I had applied my squash methods to my speculating. I'd be a very wealthy man if I had.
One last thing from your e-mails: I love this checkers saying, "The popular player loses without an alibi." I think most people are pretty bad at that. It's like, "Well, if it hadn't been for X, I would've won."
I hope you don't feel like I've alibi-ed too much. But a person likes to have a certain amount of self-respect even after disasters. Still, it's terrible to be a bad loser. I like Soros's proverb that you should never marry a woman you wouldn't want to divorce.
Having been down there in the pit of terrible wrongness twice, do you have any advice for people who are struggling with their own catastrophic mistakes?
I think there are causes that led to their disaster and that rather than thinking about the actual minutiae of the downfall, and rather than creating alibis, they should think about the principles that led to their mistakes. And then I think they should let bygones be bygones. Once you've experienced disasters, there's no sense wallowing in misery. You gotta get back in the qualifying tournaments again.
Would you say that anything good came out of those difficult times for you?
Out of these great disasters came my 4-year-old son, who is the joy of my life. What happened was that I got a call one day from the head of Bloomberg, who wanted to give me a job as a writer. I explained that I really don't know how to write and that it's very hard for me, but I was so grateful to him that I said, "You know, you have the worst stock market column in history, it misses the key aspects, and you write it with a formula. I'd like to at least help you in return for your kind efforts to bail me out of trouble." Through that, I met one of their ace reporters, Laurel Kenner, and together we had a son. He's downstairs doing experiments with explosions right now.
If you could hear anyone else being interviewed about being wrong, who would it be?
I'd like to go back and sit at the knee of Charles Darwin or Francis Galton. And I'd sit with Jack Barnaby, who was the greatest squash coach and had something like 200 victories in a row but also a lot of losses.
And I'd sit with my father. Whenever I was in error, my father was like the fairy godmother that I spoke about, but instead of taking trillions from the common man, he would take his $400, which was his entire net worth, and he'd say, "Here, Vicky, this is the last $400 I have, take it and pay off your debts." He'd say "Don't worry, you'll regroup, it's only money. You'll rise again, I know you can do it."

Kathryn Schulz is the author of Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. She can be reached at kathryn@beingwrongbook.com . You can follow her on Facebook here , and on Twitter here .
This interview is part of a series of Q and As in which notable people discuss their relationship to being wrong. You can read past interviews with mountaineer Ed Viesturs , This American Life host Ira Glass , celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain , Sports Illustrated senior writer Joe Posnanski , education scholar and activist Diane Ravitch , and criminal defense lawyer and pundit Alan Dershowitz .

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 10 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2111 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Even though this is about computers and sneakers, its applicable to life and trading as well.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Attached Thumbnails
The PandaWarrior Chronicles-steve-jobs_-get-rid-crappy-stuff-carmine-gallo-your-communications-coach-forbes.pdf  
Started this thread
The following 10 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2112 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Occasionally something comes along and lays out a concept so clearly and completely that its better to simply copy and paste than try to summarize and repost my own version of it. To that end, the following article by the guys at MT is worth a read and a print out to read every so often.

Without further ado, enjoy.

Hardcore Truth for CEOs and Traders ("The Hard Thing About Hard Things" Review)

Given the author's love of rap - and willingness to include rap lyrics as chapter intros - my only quibble with "The Hard Thing About Hard Things" was not referencing the most motivational rap song of all time: "Till I Collapse" by Eminem featuring Nate Dogg.

As the song begins, with Eminem talking over an army drill cadence:

"Cause sometimes you just feel tired, feel weak... and when you feel weak, you feel like you wanna just give up... but you got to search within you, and try to find the inner strength... and just pull that s-- out of you... and get that motivation to not give up, and not be a quitter... no matter how bad you wanna just fall flat on your face, and collapse..."

It's the ultimate theme song (if you like rap) for Horowitz' time as CEO of Loudcloud and later Opsware, going through hell - and being forged into steel via incredible trials by fire - along the hard, bloody road to success (seeing Opsware acquired for $1.6 billion). Highlighting lessons from that experience is the purpose of the book.

In another section, Horowitz distinguishes between okay CEOs and great CEOs by pointing out a difference in perspective on how they made it through killer trials. When Horowitz would ask fellow CEOs "how did you do it," as in "How did you survive that brutal gauntlet," okay CEOs would point to something specific. Whereas the great CEOs would simply boil it down to a simple hardcore essence: "I never quit."

They simply refused to give in or give out, as the "Till I Collapse" chorus puts it:

Til the roof comes off, til the lights go out
Til my legs give out, can't shut my mouth
Til the smoke clears out, am I high perhaps
I'm a rip this s-, til my bone collapse...

You must know what this means, on a deep level, to be a great CEO. And the same goes for traders. Nearly all traders, like nearly all CEOs, face their "time in the wilderness" - when nothing feels easy, everything feels impossible, and killer challenges press on every side.

I devoured "The Hard Thing About Hard Things" in less than 24 hours, having heard about it via youtube interview of Horowitz at a tech startup conference. The sense of realness - of someone who has been down in the mud and the blood and fought their way through - was absolutely compelling.

This book - basically a series of guidelines for CEOs and building a business - is not some fluffy management tome written by a theoretical management consultant with no personal concept of what brutally hard decisions are like. This is front-line reporting from a CEO who has gone to war... taken severe casualties... made series after series of life-or-death decisions... motivated troops in the trenches... and ultimately won. (As such, the book will almost certainly offend or turn off those with a more 'civilized', and less emotionally raw, perspective on company leadership.)


The book had triple resonance for on three fronts: Entrepreneur, CEO, and Trader. The "building a business" aspect spoke directly to our plans: Mercenary Trader, our financial publishing and trading education startup built on founder sweat equity, is on the cusp of critical mass after four-plus years of blood, sweat and tears. Our model is built around cultivating a true community of traders - monetizing the research we use to trade and invest our own funds (and those of clients), while educating members in our community (in a way that no one else does) that they might join us, share ideas and insights, and take their own trading to new heights.

In terms of hardcore challenges, we have already had to deal with questions like whether to sell a major piece of the business... how to handle joint venture projects (including a major software initiative) gone south... the bloody business of firing people (of course)... and lots of other things, all while managing capital simultaneously.

Ultimately we want to provide seed capital to the breakthrough star traders in our community, having trained them and equipped them with shared community resources - our own version of Julian Robertson's "Tiger Cubs" - and use flowback from publishing profits to further deepen and expand our research capabilities, even while creating a shared idea environment that fosters partnerships and even life-long friendships. Think hedge fund incubator crossed with "trader greatness training" and deep community value-add.

Not unlike what a great Silicon Valley firm cultivates for tech founders (and hence the tie-in to this review)... the VC model of A16Z (Horowitz' and Andreessen's firm) was compelling in this regard too, in the way they took a bunch of long-standing VC industry conventions and simply decided to blow them up.

(I found it hilarious, as an aside, that the historical reason VCs are extremely private, and totally disdainful of publicity, is because this is how the original banking houses did it, like the Rothschilds and whatnot - as Horowitz relates, those guys were publicity-shy because they so often funded both sides of wars.)

For the longest time, as Horowitz makes clear, VCs assumed that tech founders needed "adult supervision." Even worse, they would sometimes try to eyeball a founder to decide if they were "CEO material" based on appearance and superficial impressions, not unlike the worst practices of the redneck talent scouts in "Moneyball" pre-Billy Beane. One almost imagines choosing a candidate to lead an organization simply because he (or she) looks a little better in a tailored suit - which is apparently what actually happens, given an utter lack of substantive process.

Horowitz and Andreessen, in contrast, realized that great tech CEOs are MADE, not born - shaped and created via community experience and support - and that all the truly great tech companies were led to greatness by the passionate founders who created them in the first place (Jobs, Gates, Hewlett and Packard etc).

They thought tech founders would likely be in synch with a vision of empowering founders, rather than expecting to hand their passionate idea over to an empty suit... and they were right. So they set up A16Z, a different kind of VC firm, to facilitate that transition: "Making" the CEO out of the founder, or rather helping the founder to come into his own as CEO, through guidance and support.

This view had deep parallels with a great point of frustration, for yours truly, in respect to the trading industry: There are so many books, so much literature, talking about what makes for a "great trader," or what makes someone "trader material," not unlike someone being "CEO material."

But great traders, like great CEOs, are also MADE - it is at least partly an unnatural thing, as Horowitz says - and there is a huge amount of psychological and emotional development along the way. There is training needed for this stuff. And not the same old "cut losses and let profits run" stuff either, but real, deep, meaningful training. Having potential is not the same thing as being developed - not by a long shot.

Apart from the excellent (and very specific) insights into building, running and selling a business - and various aspects of CEO day-to-day - here are ten things from the book that struck me personally as to where the jobs of CEO and Trader overlap:

1) CEOs and Traders are paid to make decisions. The reason CEOs get paid so much (relative to normal jobs) is because they have to make the hard calls. The bigger the enterprise in question - the more that is riding on every key decision, for good or ill - the more important those decisions become. It's the same with traders: Pay is commensurate with good decision making, not activity level, and in synch with the size of one's asset base. It's not physically harder to run $100 million or $1 billion than, say, $10,000, but the trust required to be awarded stewardship of those assets has to be earned.

2) CEOs and Traders are always accountable. Whatever happens, "it's your fault." Good luck, bad luck, meteor strike, employee sabotage, doesn't matter. If it goes wrong, the negative outcome for the business - or for P&L - is laid at the feet of the CEO (or the trader). This is a mental and emotional burden that most people who haven't born that kind of permanent pressure don't understand.

3) CEOs and Traders need knowledge handed down. Colleagues and mentors who have been through comparable experiences, and can share wisdom, are truly invaluable. Horowitz underscored this repeatedly with key lessons learned from Bill Campbell, often at critical decision making junctures. Reinventing the wheel is just unnecessary, and highly dangerous, in contrast to tapping the seasoned wisdom of others who have already been through it.

4) CEOs and Traders need a support network. Both of these can be incredibly lonely jobs at times. The weight of hard decision making - which no one can take off your shoulders - can create a sense of feeling isolated. Employees, family and friends can't help with this burden. Sometimes they even add to it (though not intentionally), by being party to the outcome of the decision (but not the requirement of making it). There is no substitute for having friends and mentors at arm's length from the situation - fellow CEOs, fellow traders - who know what this is like, and can empathize and share while remaining removed from the situation itself.

5) CEOs and Traders need ability to handle "the struggle." The description of "the struggle" was one of my favorite parts of the book. It's a description of the dark times, as in the REALLY dark times, like dark on the way to pitch black. Even if you get super lucky and avoid it, you need mental preparation for the day "the struggle" potentially comes. Going through it is a rite of passage.

6) CEOs and traders need a healthy tolerance for pain. This is different than "the struggle." Pain tolerance is required even when things are going well. In a world where competition for scarce resources is the natural order of things, achieving excellence is always hard. There is no such thing as perfect - mistakes are inevitable, sometimes big ones. Indeed if there is a "secret to success," a willingness to endure pain - to fail forward, correct mistakes, and stay brutally honest and doggedly determined the entire time - would be it. It even becomes desirable (if not always possible) to enjoy the pain as it makes you stronger.

7) CEOs and Traders need deep cognizance of their own psychology. On the outside, as Horowitz says, everything is always "great" and "amazing" and otherwise perfect for those who ask. Inside, emotions can be tossed about like a ship on a storm. This requires more than just "suck it up" psychological fortitude. It requires a nuanced awareness of one's personal psychology and ability to manage it.

8) CEOs and Traders need "Wartime" skills. Horowitz' distinction of "peacetime CEOs" and "wartime CEOs" applies to traders too. There are markets where everything is unfolding nicely and confident optimism is richly rewarded; and then there are markets where the manning of battle stations and ruthless risk control win the day. While most traders, like most CEOs, will more naturally gravitate to "peacetime" skill sets, the potential for war must always be accounted for.

9) CEOs and Traders need trial by fire. How do you know if you've got what it takes? Get thrown in the shark tank and see what happens. It's not enough to do okay in favorable conditions. The water has to get bloody. There is no way to deny this or shy away from this, if the goal is to play for meaningful stakes. Playing for real stakes in the real world means being tested.

10) CEOs and Traders always have opportunity. As the book puts it, "there is always a move." If you feel completely boxed into a situation with no way out, you may not be thinking hard enough (or creatively enough). When it comes to strategic decision making, the deep complexity and open-boundary nature of the sheer number of options available can be ruthlessly intimidating in one sense, but intoxicating and freeing in another sense. If thriving in conditions of uncertainty doesn't sound appealing, then as with pain tolerance, you may want a different gig.

In conclusion, CEOs and traders have the coolest jobs on the planet. What other careers let you strategically and tactically allocate resources, sometimes vast quantities of such, with sky-is-the-limit potential for profit creation and impactful change? What others jobs are so ruthlessly demanding, yet so ultimately fulfilling, while remaining interesting almost every single day? What other jobs not only require, but DEMAND, such an elite and diverse array of skillsets, including management capabilities both external and internal? Very few.

If you are serious about building a business, becoming a CEO, or stepping up your game as a trader via leadership lessons with strong cross-application to trading, buy this book.

If no-holds-barred honesty is a turn-off and you prefer a rose-colored-glasses view of reality, however, don't buy this book. It pulls no punches, which is fantastic for those with the clear-eyed courage of Thucydides:"The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it."


Me again. I think this is an important post for traders to really internalize, especially beginning traders. In the next couple of days I am going to post a couple of trades from this week and perhaps a video. Yesterday and today were such fantastic educational days it would be a shame to let them drift into memory without really internalizing their lessons.

More to follow.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 16 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2113 (permalink)
 josh 
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,469 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,058 given, 14,557 received


The following 3 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2114 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,084 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,547 given, 98,541 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I'm also trading far less than I was. One or two trades a day. Maybe 4 if I have a couple of losers.

The key to this game, let the winners run. its as simple as that.

Brian, I think this is great news and wanted to congratulate you for making it this far!

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 8 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2115 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Big Mike View Post
Brian, I think this is great news and wanted to congratulate you for making it this far!

Mike

The more I trade, the more I realize that trading less is more. I've been sustaining a 36-40% win rate now for many months. No matter what I do, I can't seem to get that much higher. I had it up to around 44% for a while but couldn't sustain it. As the win rate has stabilized around 40%, the profitability has also stabilized. My equity curve while not spectacular is steady and thats more than I've ever had before.

Its an odd thing to win while losing 60% of the time.

A couple more interesting things to add.
  • Position sizing has more to do with profitability than entry location
  • The exit is by far more important than the entry
  • 1:1 RR and a 75% win rate isn't sustainable for most people

Anyway, thanks a lot and hope you are enjoying your new home.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 16 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2116 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I very rarely try new indicators much less buy them and I've never really recommended one before, however over the last few months I've thought about looking at alternative DOM's. For the most part, all I wanted was to see profile type information on the DOM instead of on the chart and perhaps have a bit more control over the look and feel of the DOM.

I've looked at a couple and while I do not believe I will end up changing from the default Ninja DOM which in the final analysis is more than enough for my needs. I didn't use the DOM information as much as I thought and since I'm not a scalper in the strictest sense of the word, a robust DOM doesn't seem to enhance my trading to much. That may change over time but for now, I wanted to write a brief review of the DOM I found to be the most to my liking.

I ended up testing out the 9G DOM for over a week. At first it took a bit for me to get it set up and familiar with how the menus worked. Since I'd gotten the DOM from Optimus Trading Group, I rang up John @Optimus and he walked me through the set up and once he pointed me in the right direction, it was pretty intuitive from that point forward. Intuitive software is something I demand and one main reason I stick with Ninja. I've tried several platforms and all of them seem to have vast levels of complexity that I simply do not like.

Anyway back to the DOM, once I got it set up, it worked as advertised. It was simple to enter orders, handled my existing ATM's with ease and in general performed flawlessly.

One of the cool features I like about it is you can include a column on the DOM that indicates where you are in the queue. If you are using limit orders for entries, this makes it easy to guesstimate if you will be filled based on the number of existing orders at that level and how many orders are in front of you. This is a great feature just for the mental aspect of trading.

Another thing I like about the DOM is the MP or VP capability it has. It turned out I didn't really use this aspect much and I know other DOMS have this feature so its not really unique but it is a worthwhile feature to have if you are an MP or VP trader. I'll probably continue to have this on the DOM and see if there's anyway I can integrate these levels into my trading in the future.

The main strength of the DOM is its flexibility. The user can customize it almost indefinitely. In fact I got bored with all the options and defaulted to the factory presets for most of it. I did change some colors and even though I experimented with different locations for the buttons, (you can put the buttons on the bottom, top or on either side), I ended up keeping them on top. I added an auto center button and an ATM picker. One complaint I had with the user added buttons was that I chose to put them at the bottom, the menus did not recognize they were at the bottom of the screen and expand up, instead they expanded downward where I could not see them at all.

I think many users will appreciate the ability to have multiple instruments on the same DOM. You simply add the instruments and then you can easily switch between them by clicking on the instrument at the bottom. All the standard DOM actions are available across all instruments. This allows you to track multiple instruments on your chart without having multiple DOMs to trade them. However, since I only trade CL, no real need for this feature.

Overall, I think the DOM is worth the money. Its a one time fee ( I HATE monthly leases) and you get great support. (at least from Optimus, I did not have any interaction with the actual software vendor.) If you are looking for a high end replacement for the Ninja DOM, I think this one is the best on the market. Of course bear in mind I am NOT an expert here, I'm just giving my opinion on a piece of software I decided to try and ended up liking.

I'm still deciding on if I'll continue to use it long term or stay with NT's DOM, however the fact that I've stayed with it for a week is a good sign. I normally abandon new software within minutes if its not intuitive or isn't immediately useful.

I'll give another report in a week or two and if I stay with it, I'll post up the features I find most useful to me personally and if there are any issues that come up.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2117 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

Welcome to the 9G crowd, my brother...


PandaWarrior View Post
I very rarely try new indicators much less buy them and I've never really recommended one before, however over the last few months I've thought about looking at alternative DOM's. For the most part, all I wanted was to see profile type information on the DOM instead of on the chart and perhaps have a bit more control over the look and feel of the DOM.

I've looked at a couple and while I do not believe I will end up changing from the default Ninja DOM which in the final analysis is more than enough for my needs. I didn't use the DOM information as much as I thought and since I'm not a scalper in the strictest sense of the word, a robust DOM doesn't seem to enhance my trading to much. That may change over time but for now, I wanted to write a brief review of the DOM I found to be the most to my liking.

I ended up testing out the 9G DOM for over a week. At first it took a bit for me to get it set up and familiar with how the menus worked. Since I'd gotten the DOM from Optimus Trading Group, I rang up John @Optimus and he walked me through the set up and once he pointed me in the right direction, it was pretty intuitive from that point forward. Intuitive software is something I demand and one main reason I stick with Ninja. I've tried several platforms and all of them seem to have vast levels of complexity that I simply do not like.

Anyway back to the DOM, once I got it set up, it worked as advertised. It was simple to enter orders, handled my existing ATM's with ease and in general performed flawlessly.

One of the cool features I like about it is you can include a column on the DOM that indicates where you are in the queue. If you are using limit orders for entries, this makes it easy to guesstimate if you will be filled based on the number of existing orders at that level and how many orders are in front of you. This is a great feature just for the mental aspect of trading.

Another thing I like about the DOM is the MP or VP capability it has. It turned out I didn't really use this aspect much and I know other DOMS have this feature so its not really unique but it is a worthwhile feature to have if you are an MP or VP trader. I'll probably continue to have this on the DOM and see if there's anyway I can integrate these levels into my trading in the future.

The main strength of the DOM is its flexibility. The user can customize it almost indefinitely. In fact I got bored with all the options and defaulted to the factory presets for most of it. I did change some colors and even though I experimented with different locations for the buttons, (you can put the buttons on the bottom, top or on either side), I ended up keeping them on top. I added an auto center button and an ATM picker. One complaint I had with the user added buttons was that I chose to put them at the bottom, the menus did not recognize they were at the bottom of the screen and expand up, instead they expanded downward where I could not see them at all.

I think many users will appreciate the ability to have multiple instruments on the same DOM. You simply add the instruments and then you can easily switch between them by clicking on the instrument at the bottom. All the standard DOM actions are available across all instruments. This allows you to track multiple instruments on your chart without having multiple DOMs to trade them. However, since I only trade CL, no real need for this feature.

Overall, I think the DOM is worth the money. Its a one time fee ( I HATE monthly leases) and you get great support. (at least from Optimus, I did not have any interaction with the actual software vendor.) If you are looking for a high end replacement for the Ninja DOM, I think this one is the best on the market. Of course bear in mind I am NOT an expert here, I'm just giving my opinion on a piece of software I decided to try and ended up liking.

I'm still deciding on if I'll continue to use it long term or stay with NT's DOM, however the fact that I've stayed with it for a week is a good sign. I normally abandon new software within minutes if its not intuitive or isn't immediately useful.

I'll give another report in a week or two and if I stay with it, I'll post up the features I find most useful to me personally and if there are any issues that come up.




AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2118 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

@PandaWarrior
they say it's your birthday
it's my birthday too, yeah
no kidding...04/03/1953

-g

Follow me on Twitter
The following 6 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2119 (permalink)
 trs3042 
Holland, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker: CQG
Trading: Acoustic Guitar
 
trs3042's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,617 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 23,764 given, 5,615 received

@PandaWarrior

Happy Birthday Brian!!! Have a GREAT day!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
The following 2 users say Thank You to trs3042 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2120 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

Happy belated birthday, brother


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2121 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

Thank you to all that wished me a happy birthday both publicly and privately!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 5 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2122 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,456 given, 12,608 received

Thank you for continuing to post on your blog! I have been enjoying reading your recaps the last week or so!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2123 (permalink)
 Massive l 
Legendary Market Wizard
Portland, OR
 
Experience: None
 
Massive l's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,012 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 1,699 given, 4,193 received

Just saw this...Happy B-day belated, P-Dub!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to Massive l for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2124 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

TraderFeed: Controlling Emotions Is NOT The Goal Of Trading Psychology

I always knew that controlling emotions wasn't the issue.....now I have expert confirmation. Its about playing with emotion in the zone.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2125 (permalink)
 ratfink 
Birmingham UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: TST/Rithmic
Trading: YM/Gold
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,651 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 17,422 given, 8,403 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I always knew that controlling emotions wasn't the issue.....now I have expert confirmation. It's about playing with emotion in the zone.

So true. With the advent of modern brain scanners many of psychology's accepted beliefs are being rewritten wholesale and we now know that emotion comes before rationality and you can't actually make any decision without it. Damasio's work is particularly enlightening but then so is much of modern brain science compared to the tosh and waffle I got qualified in, except maybe Spinoza and James and all the ones I've forgotten....

Travel Well
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to ratfink for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2126 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I've been simming the ES for a couple of days. Price action only. No external signals. And I have to confess, I am not really a fan. It seems to be moving well but some days it seems like all it does is run stops and not just little intermediate ones.....but thats my impression. So today I took a trade with a pretty wide stop. I think 4 points or something like that. But here's how it played out. Single lot, no trade management. In fact, I set this and forgot it. Just minimized the chart and never looked at it again. Used an 11 point target. Somewhat inside the ATR range....I may have miscalculated that a bit otherwise the target might have been a few more ticks higher.

Regardless, this is the third or fourth large trade (sim of course) that I've had in ES recently. I am NOT tracking it for numbers, just getting a feel for it in case I ever want to go back to it. Watching @tigertrader trade multiple lots on ES makes me wonder about the idea of hitting more singles with larger size vs trying for large runners on CL with smaller size. Just thinking out loud here.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 7 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2127 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2128 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Watching @tigertrader trade multiple lots on ES makes me wonder about the idea of hitting more singles with larger size vs trying for large runners on CL with smaller size. Just thinking out loud here.


@PandaWarrior: your thinking is completely counter-intuitive: the quantity you trade is a function of your equity, not your expectation of the trade. you want to constantly increase your size as you increase your equity, so that you get the maximum geometric growth of your capital given the characteristics of the return stream, and your tolerance for risk. you may want to reduce your size, when there's greater volatility, and increase your size when there's less volatility, but you want to be trading the optimal size relative your account size, whether you are in a range trade looking for 3 or 4 points, or in a trend trade looking for 10 or more points. in fact, if you are able to catch a trend, you should be adding aggressively, and levering up a fairly good multiple of your normal unit size. this is crucial, if you are going to be pulling a percentage of your profits out of your account to live on. otherwise, you can kiss your account adios, my friend.

Follow me on Twitter
The following 15 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2129 (permalink)
Sayounara
Yokohama South Korea
 
 
Posts: 116 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 99 given, 72 received


tigertrader View Post
@PandaWarrior: your thinking is completely counter-intuitive: the quantity you trade is a function of your equity, not your expectation of the trade. you want to constantly increase your size as you increase your equity, so that you get the maximum geometric growth of your capital given the characteristics of the return stream, and your tolerance for risk. you may want to reduce your size, when there's greater volatility, and increase your size when there's less volatility, but you want to be trading the optimal size relative your account size, whether you are in a range trade looking for 3 or 4 points, or in a trend trade looking for 10 or more points. in fact, if you are able to catch a trend, you should be adding aggressively, and levering up a fairly good multiple of your normal unit size. this is crucial, if you are going to be pulling a percentage of your profits out of your account to live on. otherwise, you can kiss your account adios, my friend.

adding to a winner is probably the hardest thing to do in trading, at least emotionally. I'm doing ok managing my initial position, but whenever I add to it, my pulse increases, and every tick in the wrong direction induces nightmarish visions and a feeling of pending disaster. I quite accept the truth that the outcome of my last trade has no bearings whatsoever with the new one, but I just cant seem to implement this belief when I have an active position (maybe I just don't believe it enough yet). this is so irrational and I've tried to analyze the cause of it but couldn't reach any productive conclusion, apart from the obvious one that I'm just a coward. however, despite this irrational behavior my account has been growing and it doesn't look like I'll blow it any time soon. maybe I just haven't traded long enough. anyway what I'm trying to say is that I recognize the importance of adding to winners, and I applaud/admire you for being able to do it flawlessly. may I ask how? any secret that you don't mind sharing?

The following 5 users say Thank You to Sayounara for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2130 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Sayounara View Post
adding to a winner is probably the hardest thing to do in trading, at least emotionally. I'm doing ok managing my initial position, but whenever I add to it, my pulse increases, and every tick in the wrong direction induces nightmarish visions and a feeling of pending disaster. I quite accept the truth that the outcome of my last trade has no bearings whatsoever with the new one, but I just cant seem to implement this belief when I have an active position (maybe I just don't believe it enough yet). this is so irrational and I've tried to analyze the cause of it but couldn't reach any productive conclusion, apart from the obvious one that I'm just a coward. however, despite this irrational behavior my account has been growing and it doesn't look like I'll blow it any time soon. maybe I just haven't traded long enough. anyway what I'm trying to say is that I recognize the importance of adding to winners, and I applaud/admire you for being able to do it flawlessly. may I ask how? any secret that you don't mind sharing?

Add on pull backs, break outs, wherever....its best if you can have a risk free trade on your add on's of course, that takes the sweat out of it but you cant always get that perfectly....yes it is difficult but when I do it, it sure feels good....even if it stops out as a BE trade, I'm glad I was able to execute.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 6 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2131 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


tigertrader View Post
@PandaWarrior: your thinking is completely counter-intuitive: the quantity you trade is a function of your equity, not your expectation of the trade. you want to constantly increase your size as you increase your equity, so that you get the maximum geometric growth of your capital given the characteristics of the return stream, and your tolerance for risk. you may want to reduce your size, when there's greater volatility, and increase your size when there's less volatility, but you want to be trading the optimal size relative your account size, whether you are in a range trade looking for 3 or 4 points, or in a trend trade looking for 10 or more points. in fact, if you are able to catch a trend, you should be adding aggressively, and levering up a fairly good multiple of your normal unit size. this is crucial, if you are going to be pulling a percentage of your profits out of your account to live on. otherwise, you can kiss your account adios, my friend.

Thank you.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2132 (permalink)
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,456 given, 12,608 received


Sayounara View Post
adding to a winner is probably the hardest thing to do in trading, at least emotionally. I'm doing ok managing my initial position, but whenever I add to it, my pulse increases, and every tick in the wrong direction induces nightmarish visions and a feeling of pending disaster. I quite accept the truth that the outcome of my last trade has no bearings whatsoever with the new one, but I just cant seem to implement this belief when I have an active position (maybe I just don't believe it enough yet). this is so irrational and I've tried to analyze the cause of it but couldn't reach any productive conclusion, apart from the obvious one that I'm just a coward. however, despite this irrational behavior my account has been growing and it doesn't look like I'll blow it any time soon. maybe I just haven't traded long enough. anyway what I'm trying to say is that I recognize the importance of adding to winners, and I applaud/admire you for being able to do it flawlessly. may I ask how? any secret that you don't mind sharing?

If you are in a trend like today in the NQ, you look to add on with each sell signal. Like Panda said, on pullbacks, breakouts, anywhere that if you were flat you would take the trade. I have done this today and have had a really amazing day so far...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 5 users say Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2133 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

So I had an unrecoverable computer crash this week....which meant I had to buy a new computer. Being a Mac fan , I was loath to spend money on a PC and wanted to buy something that would take care of my trading needs and nothing more. I do everything else on my Mac.

Its been 6-7 years since I bought a computer and was unprepared for the trauma this entails. I spent some time researching online using my 10 year old Macbook Pro which has never once given me even the slightest problem and simply couldn't find anything I thought I would want in the price range I wanted.

So off to Best Buy I went after stopping at Staples and even Walmart to look at machines.

At Best Buy I found a reasonably priced machine, with 6GB of Ram, a nice hard drive and an i5 processor. More than enough for my needs. It was on sale and they even gave me $100 trade in for my old machine. Nice

Got it home and thats when the evil empire struck. I have to say, setting up the new machine was at first, a nightmare of fighting microsoft for the rights to my own property. They wanted me to be locked into their ecosystem even more than Apple does. I couldn't even begin to set it up without creating microsoft accounts. But eventually I got around all that and got the new thing set up.

I have to say, other than the strong arm tactics of microsoft, I like the new computer, its pretty fast, runs NT nicely, and once I got rid of the silly 8.1 interface, it was super easy to use. IT doesn't reproduce color the same way my old machine did. Actually not even close but I suppose there are settings for that. I'll dive into those settings next week.

I tried for windows 7 but no one had them in stock locally and I didn't want to wait for one to be shipped so I just capitulated and got 8.1. I don't like much about its user interface. It came preinstalled with all kinds of useless apps and attempts to get me to buy subscriptions for several different programs. To me, these kinds of tactics should be outlawed. If I want those apps, I'll find them and buy them, don't try to force me to buy them.

It does have a sense of humor though, I'm downloading my backups from drop box and the little drop box icon says in place of the time remaining "a long time, grab a snickers". I thought that was funny.

Anyway, I have a new machine for better or worse.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2134 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

Well don't leave us hanging, man !! What brand machine did you get? ... desktop or notebook?




PandaWarrior View Post
So I had an unrecoverable computer crash this week....which meant I had to buy a new computer. Being a Mac fan , I was loath to spend money on a PC and wanted to buy something that would take care of my trading needs and nothing more. I do everything else on my Mac.

Its been 6-7 years since I bought a computer and was unprepared for the trauma this entails. I spent some time researching online using my 10 year old Macbook Pro which has never once given me even the slightest problem and simply couldn't find anything I thought I would want in the price range I wanted.

So off to Best Buy I went after stopping at Staples and even Walmart to look at machines.

At Best Buy I found a reasonably priced machine, with 6GB of Ram, a nice hard drive and an i5 processor. More than enough for my needs. It was on sale and they even gave me $100 trade in for my old machine. Nice

Got it home and thats when the evil empire struck. I have to say, setting up the new machine was at first, a nightmare of fighting microsoft for the rights to my own property. They wanted me to be locked into their ecosystem even more than Apple does. I couldn't even begin to set it up without creating microsoft accounts. But eventually I got around all that and got the new thing set up.

I have to say, other than the strong arm tactics of microsoft, I like the new computer, its pretty fast, runs NT nicely, and once I got rid of the silly 8.1 interface, it was super easy to use. IT doesn't reproduce color the same way my old machine did. Actually not even close but I suppose there are settings for that. I'll dive into those settings next week.

I tried for windows 7 but no one had them in stock locally and I didn't want to wait for one to be shipped so I just capitulated and got 8.1. I don't like much about its user interface. It came preinstalled with all kinds of useless apps and attempts to get me to buy subscriptions for several different programs. To me, these kinds of tactics should be outlawed. If I want those apps, I'll find them and buy them, don't try to force me to buy them.

It does have a sense of humor though, I'm downloading my backups from drop box and the little drop box icon says in place of the time remaining "a long time, grab a snickers". I thought that was funny.

Anyway, I have a new machine for better or worse.



AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2135 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


tderrick View Post
Well don't leave us hanging, man !! What brand machine did you get? ... desktop or notebook?

I bought a cheap toshiba satellite laptop...on sale with a trade in credit. Paid less than $500 out the door.....actually left this bit out on purpose as i was a bit embarrassed to admit I bought such a poor machine.....but it works and I'm happy....so far anyway.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2136 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker: AMP / CQG
Trading: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,588 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,529 received

i5 with 8g ram... Is plenty for a dedicated trading computer. Trading data is a lot like audio. It comes in at real time, so not computing power is needed for average trading / audio recording ... My i5 Maxine runs an average of 10%....


Aj

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2137 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


tderrick View Post
i5 with 8g ram... Is plenty for a dedicated trading computer. Trading data is a lot like audio. It comes in at real time, so not computing power is needed for average trading / audio recording ... My i5 Maxine runs an average of 10%....


Aj

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Its 15 inch connected via HDMI to my 30 inch HD monitor. Only problem is it doesn't support the monitor at its full resolution like my my mac does. But neither did the one its replacing so no noticeable difference in what I see.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #2138 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,084 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,547 given, 98,541 received

You need DisplayPort instead of HDMI.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2139 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


Big Mike View Post
You need DisplayPort instead of HDMI.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

The only option i have is an HDMI output and my monitor is DVI. Its 6 years old.

The laptop has HD capability but apparently can only support the monitor at 1200X800

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #2140 (permalink)
 calitrader 
San Jose, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SC
Broker: Multi
Trading: CL
 
Posts: 733 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 1,954 given, 811 received


PandaWarrior View Post
The only option i have is an HDMI output and my monitor is DVI. Its 6 years old.

The laptop has HD capability but apparently can only support the monitor at 1200X800

I had the same problem with HDMI when I upgraded monitors a few months ago. The resolution displayed right on a VGA connection so I switched to that and its been good ever since. Maybe a DVI to VGA converter would work?

Chris

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to calitrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2141 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


calitrader View Post
I had the same problem with HDMI when I upgraded monitors a few months ago. The resolution displayed right on a VGA connection so I switched to that and its been good ever since. Maybe a DVI to VGA converter would work?

Chris

Yeah the laptop only has HDMI output but the monitor has DVI input so I got the adapter from HDMI to DVI and the max resolution is 1200X800 on the monitor. I think thats probably the best I'm gonna get.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2142 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I hate trend days that start before I even wake up....I'm just saying.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2143 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I hope someone can help with this:

This new computer doesn't seem to really like my 30 inch monitor much. It displays at 1200X800 which is what the previous machine displayed at on this monitor. However, now when I try to use Jing, the software seems to take a "pre capture" picture of the screen and shifts it down and to the left putting much of the screen out of view.

Then when I capture the screen using the normal cross hairs function, the selection tool disappears out the top and will only capture the "shifted" portion of the screen.

I've attached a pic taken with my phone of the screen after I click the capture icon on the Jing sun but BEFORE I actually capture the screen. You can see the primary window which is a 800 tick chart is shifted down and to the left. I've also posted the resulting screen capture.

As you can see, its not working properly. Anyone have any ideas on how to fix this? I've looked at this on the TechSmith website but can't find anything. Before I go through their tech support, I thought I'd try it here first.


The screen BEFORE doing anything:


The screen BEFORE Capture but AFTER clicking on the Jing Sun:


After the screen capture:

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2144 (permalink)
 jlwade123   is a Vendor
 
 
Posts: 929 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 678 given, 897 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I hate trend days that start before I even wake up....I'm just saying.....

LOL, keeps you on your toes. Especially when price opens above R2 or below S2.

Follow me on Twitter
The following user says Thank You to jlwade123 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2145 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

thought it might be worthwhile today....a good example of what not to do....

5:20AM PST:

Market State:
  • CDR: 1.13
  • 4 ADR: 1.33 (20 ticks left in the average although today could be a range expansion day)
  • Volume: 38K
  • Daily: Long and pulling back after several days at resistance
  • 60M: Short and over extended
  • 800T: Short and over extended.

Analysis, Trades and Thought process at and during trades:

Analysis:

Shorts in control. Waiting for a pull back or a possible reversal long. No chasing. I always struggle with trades when the entry for the trade happened before I get up. Its worse when its a straight trend day because there is usually no real safe place to get on board. So I end up nickle and diming myself to death at worst or perhaps eke out a small profit. I also sometimes fall prey to trying to pick the bottom. I dont do this all the time but the temptation is very strong.

The Trades:
  1. Looking for possible long back to the resistance area of 103.10 then a short after that. 5.38AM PST: Have to grab a shower in about 10-15 minutes. Taking daughter to school early for violin practice plus have to drop a part off at the mechanics place so he can finish my car today. Support at 102.47 to 102.19. Pin bar from three days ago on 60M chart. Long @102.56, ten tick stop, 30 tick target. -10
  2. Long @102.40, ten tick stop, 30 tick target, +11 on auto trail scalping ATM.
  3. Short 102.28 BO of ORL. 30 tick target 10 tick stop. While with trend, its at support and already pretty well extended. Small targets and tight stop. -10...probably time to quit for a while. This market is already way past my normal short entry point. -10 for the day so far. Using the tight stop turned out to be poor judgement on my part.
  4. Short at 102.22 intermediate resistance: 10 ticks stop, 30 tick target. +11 with auto trail stop. +1 so far.
  5. Long @102.20 after an inside swing combination broke to the upside and pulled back to the inside support. 15 tick stop moved to BE quickly as these can often be false break outs opposite of the trend, 50+ tick target back to the 50% level on the day. BE
  6. Short at 101.82. Had a limit order at 101.96 that didn't fill. Took the confirmation bar down. Ten tick stop, 50 tick target at the absolute lowest possible location on the daily chart I think it could go. Hold all day if needed. +20 when it stalled out. Subsequently reversed.
  7. Long @101.85. Some consolidation, an inside low and an inside high...not confirmed yet but looks like it will, in a bit early for the break out. 12 tick stop. target, ORL. More than likely just going to get up and leave to let this one play out. No need to babysit as it promises to be a slow grind up....at least thats how I perceive it currently. Its counter trend on all time frames at this point except the 800T. Have a blue bar though on the 60M, the first one of the day with a long buying tail on the previous 60M bar. Some confidence present. Ok have to leave now...time to pick up the car from the mechanics. Lots of selling on the DOM, but buyers and sellers look evenly matched. Price went to the BO level and pulled back...not time yet....-12

Post trading thoughts:

I had a tough time today. I knew I had a short session this morning due to the items mentioned above. This put me into a frustrated state once I saw the sell off had already happened. This also led me to force a long trade to "catch the bottom". It comes down to FOMO, fear of missing out. Something it appears I struggle with quite a lot. That fear placed me in a long trade instead of watching for the short at the EMA which was also the pre-market support/resistance line.

I could have taken that trade as a pull back trade and rode it for 50-60+ ticks before it began to stall out. Instead I scratched and clawed trying to make something happen with tight stops and targets. Not smart. This game is about doing what is in your personal best interest and small thinking like I displayed today is no way to do that.

I read an article about position sizing and when to go "all in" or to "bet the farm". Some interesting points were made and today was an all in day.....or at least, mostly in....Funny thing was, I knew it would be a range expansion day today after two inside days and decreasing volatility. Something had to give. Combine this with resistance on the daily chart, some room to move to the down side and a strong case for all day all in short fest was in order. Instead, chicken scratch day


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 12 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2146 (permalink)
 iqgod 
Market Wizard
Mumbai, India
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: ChartNexus
Trading: Stocks, Commodities, Futures
 
iqgod's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,802 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 3,652 given, 3,093 received


PandaWarrior View Post
thought it might be worthwhile today....a good example of what not to do....
So I end up nickle and diming myself to death at worst or perhaps eke out a small profit.

I also sometimes fall prey to trying to pick the bottom.

I don't do this all the time but the temptation is very strong.

...

I knew I had a short session this morning due to the items mentioned above. This put me into a frustrated state once I saw the sell off had already happened.

This also led me to force a long trade to "catch the bottom". It comes down to FOMO, fear of missing out. Something it appears I struggle with quite a lot. That fear placed me in a long trade instead of watching for the short at the EMA ...

I could have taken that trade as a pull back trade and rode it for 50-60+ ticks before it began to stall out. Instead I scratched and clawed trying to make something happen with tight stops and targets. Not smart. This game is about doing what is in your personal best interest and small thinking like I displayed today is no way to do that.

Funny thing was, I knew it would be a range expansion day today after two inside days and decreasing volatility. Something had to give. Combine this with resistance on the daily chart, some room to move to the down side and a strong case for all day all in short fest was in order. Instead, chicken scratch day

Extremely valuable post... I've retained the relevant parts above for my lifelong learning.

Thanks for sharing!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following user says Thank You to iqgod for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2147 (permalink)
 arnie 
Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Jigsaw
Broker: Tradovate
Trading: Equities
 
arnie's Avatar
 
Posts: 824 since May 2010
Thanks: 722 given, 1,035 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I hope someone can help with this:

This new computer doesn't seem to really like my 30 inch monitor much. It displays at 1200X800 which is what the previous machine displayed at on this monitor. However, now when I try to use Jing, the software seems to take a "pre capture" picture of the screen and shifts it down and to the left putting much of the screen out of view.

Then when I capture the screen using the normal cross hairs function, the selection tool disappears out the top and will only capture the "shifted" portion of the screen.

I've attached a pic taken with my phone of the screen after I click the capture icon on the Jing sun but BEFORE I actually capture the screen. You can see the primary window which is a 800 tick chart is shifted down and to the left. I've also posted the resulting screen capture.

As you can see, its not working properly. Anyone have any ideas on how to fix this? I've looked at this on the TechSmith website but can't find anything. Before I go through their tech support, I thought I'd try it here first.


It's probably more a Jing issue than the 30 inch monitor.
Also, you're running Win 8.1 right? Is Jing fully compatible with it?

I started using Jing but quickly move to Snagit because of issues similar to the ones you're reporting. I was vener able to use Jing outside the main screen. If I wanted to capture something on my fifth screen I just couldn't. I would need to move the window to the main one.

If I become half a percent smarter each year, I'll be a genius by the time I die
The following 3 users say Thank You to arnie for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2148 (permalink)
 futuretrader 
Como Italy
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, customized
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 526 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 471 given, 642 received


PandaWarrior View Post

I read an article about position sizing and when to go "all in" or to "bet the farm". Some interesting points were made and today was an all in day.....or at least, mostly in....

That's something I've been trying to work on (without much success) on trend days - can you share the article?

The following 2 users say Thank You to futuretrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2149 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received


futuretrader View Post
That's something I've been trying to work on (without much success) on trend days - can you share the article?


I'm not endorsing these guys in any way, I like their writing style and they sometimes have interesting things to say that impact me. I do not belong to their service and have no intention of joining. So with that ringing endorsement, enjoy.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Attached Thumbnails
The PandaWarrior Chronicles-mercenary-trader-05-oceans-eleven.pdf  
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2150 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

5:36AM PST

Market State:
  • CDR: .43
  • 3 ADR: 1.30 (90 ticks left in the ADR)
  • Daily: Long and consolidating at support
  • 60M: Coming out of consolidation . Neither long or short. However, favoring longs
  • 800T: Long and pulling back inside an upwards sloping channel.

Analysis:

Probably a narrow range today. This would allow for either a failure to rally for tomorrow or produce a nice rally tomorrow on the daily chart. Favoring longs but be willing to short as well. No clear case for either. High impact news had no effect today. Chose scalping mode for todays trades if any are to be taken. As I am writing this, shorts assumed control by taking out most recent swing low put in by the longs.

The Trades:


1. Short @101.64. After having broke the up channel and then pulled back. 10 tick stop and 30 tick target. Scalp mode today. -8. Down thrust looked like a stop run against the longs. Should have stayed with the long bias.

2. Long @101.89 Hit the buy market button as it broke through the downward trend line, then added as it broke the confirmation bar. Stop to BE pretty quick in case the BO failed. +30,+25

3. Long @ 102.00. scalp trade 1:1. Looking to take profit before the descending trend line on the initial impulse. One lot only. Broke the inside swing. took the confirmation bar. +10. Trade worked as planned.

4. Long @ 102.10, Broke desending trend line finally, 10 tick stop, 30 tick target with auto trail stop. +15. Last trade of the day.

Post Trading Thoughts:

I've failed to capitalize on much of anything lately. I've made good directional calls as well as range vs trend days and failed to execute on those calls. Today I was determined to execute according to my thought process and my "MADSPOT" pre market analysis. And I did execute with near perfect precision. Scalping is more difficult to be sure than just letting a trade run but it does have a certain satisfaction of closing out trades for profit. However, if I can keep my focus and follow through on what I say I should do, then letting the trades run will bring the same satisfaction as closing them today did. Because I will be following my trading plan and that is what this is all about. Execution of what I say I should do.

Forward Planning:

Tomorrow should be more longs. Unless it fails today and overnight, I expect we will see a normal type trend day tomorrow. At least I hope so. If it fails to stay long today, then tomorrow maybe another rotational day.



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2151 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

no trades yesterday: This is today.

5:30 AM PST

Market State:
  • Daily: Long
  • 60M: Long and pulling back
  • 800: Long and pulling back
  • Volume: 24K
  • CDR: 67
  • 3 ADR: 1.24

Analysis:

Market is long, perhaps overextended and in need of a pullback. Will favor longs today but only after a pull back. Euro is tanking this morning. Could mean a deeper pull back could happen if dollar is surging. Wait and see. Could also break above yesterday's high and run a bit. Its a classic set up on the daily for a long.

The Trades:

1. Long @ 101.34. Trend line break after support. 17 tick stop, 45 tick target. +42 on the trail out. I moved the target out once I saw the break out was actually going to happen and let the trail stop do the work. However, the ATM was a scalping ATM and it followed price a bit to close. Its OK because I was only planning on scalping to the HOD anyway so I got 15-20 ticks more than I had originally planned on. Ultimate target of 102.00 reached. Left some money on the table again. Done for the day. On my way to help my dad with a couple of items.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 9 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2152 (permalink)
 mfbreakout 
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,702 received


PandaWarrior View Post
no trades yesterday: This is today.

5:30 AM PST

Market State:
  • Daily: Long
  • 60M: Long and pulling back
  • 800: Long and pulling back
  • Volume: 24K
  • CDR: 67
  • 3 ADR: 1.24

Analysis:

Market is long, perhaps overextended and in need of a pullback. Will favor longs today but only after a pull back. Euro is tanking this morning. Could mean a deeper pull back could happen if dollar is surging. Wait and see. Could also break above yesterday's high and run a bit. Its a classic set up on the daily for a long.

The Trades:

1. Long @ 101.34. Trend line break after support. 17 tick stop, 45 tick target. +42 on the trail out. I moved the target out once I saw the break out was actually going to happen and let the trail stop do the work. However, the ATM was a scalping ATM and it followed price a bit to close. Its OK because I was only planning on scalping to the HOD anyway so I got 15-20 ticks more than I had originally planned on. Ultimate target of 102.00 reached. Left some money on the table again. Done for the day. On my way to help my dad with a couple of items.



Have to follow the warrior. Long and short. Different methods but similar conclusion.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-04-29_0915_long_open.png
Views:	259
Size:	107.7 KB
ID:	145213   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-04-29_1134_short.png
Views:	251
Size:	100.1 KB
ID:	145214   Click image for larger version

Name:	2014-04-28_0920_short.png
Views:	215
Size:	84.4 KB
ID:	145216  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 2 users say Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2153 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

5:40 AM PST....................


Market State:

  • Daily Slightly bearish but technically still long. Nearing ascending trend line. Pushed through a bit but would need to close down today to actually break the trend line
  • 60M: Short and consolidating
  • 800T. Neutral to bullish
  • CDR: .78
  • 3 ADR: 1.42

Analysis:

Its inventory day. Market is not in snyc. I favor longs if only because the daily is at its do or die point as far as I can see. I will take the shorts if they set up though. You never know. However, yesterday's break out long and subsequent reversal looks like a stop run for both longs and shorts. Taking a wait and see approach today. I will be willing to take the first couple of trades with narrow stops just to see if there's any momentum. If not, stop and wait til inventory.

The Trades:

1. Short @99.91. Entered to late -10. This trade should have been at the TL break. I got in late with a tight stop and immediately paid for it. Should have just waited for a small pull back before jumping in.
2. Short@ 99.99. 15 tick stop. 50 tick target. 200% of the risk. Trailed out at +30
3. Long CT @ 99.69 after inventory. 30 tick target. CT means trail aggressively. Out at +13. Probably done for the day.
4. Long @99.83. Retry on trade 3. Pure scalping at this point. -7
5. Short @99.66. Scalping here. However, bear flag channel break down. Took a bit to break the double bottom but got 15 ticks as it tested the reversal area.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
The following 8 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2154 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,574 given, 34,957 received

The PandaWarrior Chronicles-eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdf


i'm sorry brian, but i just don't get - this is retail trading101. i think it what be quite helpful if you would pay special attention to pages 19-21 and perhaps take into consideration the effect of the dollar, volatility, es, and dbc. you are still trading in a vacuum with a methodology dominated by a multitude of cognitive biases and faulty heuristics. and the methodology is STILL geared toward maintaining your personal level of comfort, rather than making money. and i know you, that you know, what you need to do, and you have even verbalized it on many occasions, but when it comes down to implementing a strategy geared towards profitability, the emotional barrier comes up and you revert back to what feels best, instead.

Follow me on Twitter
The following 9 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2155 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
Experience: None
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,163 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,328 given, 13,386 received

I've had a good run as a regular poster on the forum. I think I have three of the most read threads...not 100% sure about that but I think so...anyway, I am closing this thread for a couple of reasons, it has run its course and two, there are a few people that have contacted me over the previous 12 months or so to do some consulting work for them with regards to trading and I cannot operate as a vendor with a public journal on futures.io (formerly BMT).

I want to say thanks to the many many people that have contributed to my threads both publicly and privately. There are so many I cannot possibly thank them all by name but suffice to say, if you have posted in my thread, thank you for your contribution. Also a big shout out to @Big Mike for even having such a well run forum. I've been on a few others in the distant past and I thought they were cesspools of flaming and name calling. I instantly liked the sense of traders helping traders that Mike has tried to foster. Mike even had me be a moderator at one point. I just didn't have the chops to keep up with the savy computer jocks over in Traders Hideout with all their "tech talk".

I have to say some thing about my time on futures.io (formerly BMT), when I came here I was looking for free indicators. In fact, I was directed here by a vendor that is no longer in business. I ended up staying and I have to say, other than a few other resources, most of my education in trading has come from the threads, webinars and journals here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Some members have been instrumental in my journey both publicly and privately.

I've also made a quite a few friends here on the forum, some of which I think will be life long friendships.....you know who you are....a man can never have to many friends.

The things I've learned here have helped me become consistently profitable....not to the degree that I could be but that's a statement I think most of us could make with all honestly. But its been around a year since I turned the corner and like many other things, took longer than it should or could have with the right mental approach. I have a lot to learn about myself to be sure but this game absolutely ensures you are constantly growing. I expect this will be a never ending journey.

I recently read an article by another trader and one of his most important keys to success is to have other sources of income at least while you build your account. In that regard, I am uniquely ill suited to most normal "jobs" (I am a terrible employee) and my health does not allow for other types of jobs at least right now. My wife covers most of the bills with her work and I offset whatever is left with my trading. However, its time to begin to seriously build my trading account and taking profits as earned is not the way to do that until the amount earned is significantly larger than what I wish to take out monthly and I'm not quite there yet. I want to have enough to both trade for income as well as trade for longer term wealth.

So with that in mind, I decided to become a vendor. There are people similar to me who I may at some level be able to help along the way. I enjoy talking, I enjoy trading and I enjoy talking about trading with other traders and I like earning a bit of money on the side....so to that end, I've hung my shingle out for one on one coaching to help others along their journey. A side benefit of this is when I teach or talk, I learn as much or more than the listener. I've made my living as an adult for the last 25 years by talking....if I didn't teach someone that what I had to offer was better than my competitor, I was out of a job that day.....so I became pretty good at it. And I trust in this endeavor, the same will hold true. Walking the talk is vitally important.

As an aside, I am also a live trader at TopStepTrader. This too requires discipline and time to build up. Its not an easy fix for small accounts. I've passed several combines over the last couple of years, but I could never maintain the status of live trader due to lack of discipline. However, this time through has been different. I treated the combine the same way I treated my own account and I passed the combine, then the live trader prep and then it took TST quite a long time to get my Ninja trader connection set up. Almost 60 days I think. Something to do with the way Vision interacted with TST. Anyway, its done and I can trade with TST in addition to my own account. Should be interesting.

I'll still be around but under the vendor restrictions of course.

Cheers everyone. And thanks again to everyone that contributed to all my threads......

Brian, aka Pandawarrior.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Started this thread
 
(login for full post details)
  #2156 (permalink)
 trs3042 
Holland, Michigan
 
Experience: None
Platform: ninjatrader
Broker: CQG
Trading: Acoustic Guitar
 
trs3042's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,617 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 23,764 given, 5,615 received

Wishing you all the best Brian with your new endeavors.

Rick

Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
The following 2 users say Thank You to trs3042 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2157 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Legendary Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,039 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,697 given, 5,221 received

Like Rick wrote, wishing you all the best. I know some look at vendors as a subspecies but don't listen to them as for many traders it is the only way to coumpound your account.

The following 3 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #2158 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,084 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,547 given, 98,541 received

@PandaWarrior,

Good luck with your new venture, and I hope to continue seeing you around for many years to come.

Thread closed by request.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:

Closed Thread

futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > The PandaWarrior Chronicles


Last Updated on May 14, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing

HIRO Indicator by Spotgamma in Bookmap w/Brent Kochuba @ SpotGamma

Elite only

NEW BlackBird Features + FOREX Support w/Jeremy Tang @ SharkIndicators

Elite only
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts