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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #2151 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

no trades yesterday: This is today.

5:30 AM PST

Market State:
  • Daily: Long
  • 60M: Long and pulling back
  • 800: Long and pulling back
  • Volume: 24K
  • CDR: 67
  • 3 ADR: 1.24

Analysis:

Market is long, perhaps overextended and in need of a pullback. Will favor longs today but only after a pull back. Euro is tanking this morning. Could mean a deeper pull back could happen if dollar is surging. Wait and see. Could also break above yesterday's high and run a bit. Its a classic set up on the daily for a long.

The Trades:

1. Long @ 101.34. Trend line break after support. 17 tick stop, 45 tick target. +42 on the trail out. I moved the target out once I saw the break out was actually going to happen and let the trail stop do the work. However, the ATM was a scalping ATM and it followed price a bit to close. Its OK because I was only planning on scalping to the HOD anyway so I got 15-20 ticks more than I had originally planned on. Ultimate target of 102.00 reached. Left some money on the table again. Done for the day. On my way to help my dad with a couple of items.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #2152 (permalink)
Elite Member
BOSTON, MA
 
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mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
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long


PandaWarrior View Post
no trades yesterday: This is today.

5:30 AM PST

Market State:
  • Daily: Long
  • 60M: Long and pulling back
  • 800: Long and pulling back
  • Volume: 24K
  • CDR: 67
  • 3 ADR: 1.24

Analysis:

Market is long, perhaps overextended and in need of a pullback. Will favor longs today but only after a pull back. Euro is tanking this morning. Could mean a deeper pull back could happen if dollar is surging. Wait and see. Could also break above yesterday's high and run a bit. Its a classic set up on the daily for a long.

The Trades:

1. Long @ 101.34. Trend line break after support. 17 tick stop, 45 tick target. +42 on the trail out. I moved the target out once I saw the break out was actually going to happen and let the trail stop do the work. However, the ATM was a scalping ATM and it followed price a bit to close. Its OK because I was only planning on scalping to the HOD anyway so I got 15-20 ticks more than I had originally planned on. Ultimate target of 102.00 reached. Left some money on the table again. Done for the day. On my way to help my dad with a couple of items.

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Have to follow the warrior. Long and short. Different methods but similar conclusion.

Attached Thumbnails
The PandaWarrior Chronicles-2014-04-29_0915_long_open.png   The PandaWarrior Chronicles-2014-04-29_1134_short.png   The PandaWarrior Chronicles-2014-04-28_0920_short.png  
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  #2153 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


5:40 AM PST....................


Market State:

  • Daily Slightly bearish but technically still long. Nearing ascending trend line. Pushed through a bit but would need to close down today to actually break the trend line
  • 60M: Short and consolidating
  • 800T. Neutral to bullish
  • CDR: .78
  • 3 ADR: 1.42

Analysis:

Its inventory day. Market is not in snyc. I favor longs if only because the daily is at its do or die point as far as I can see. I will take the shorts if they set up though. You never know. However, yesterday's break out long and subsequent reversal looks like a stop run for both longs and shorts. Taking a wait and see approach today. I will be willing to take the first couple of trades with narrow stops just to see if there's any momentum. If not, stop and wait til inventory.

The Trades:

1. Short @99.91. Entered to late -10. This trade should have been at the TL break. I got in late with a tight stop and immediately paid for it. Should have just waited for a small pull back before jumping in.
2. Short@ 99.99. 15 tick stop. 50 tick target. 200% of the risk. Trailed out at +30
3. Long CT @ 99.69 after inventory. 30 tick target. CT means trail aggressively. Out at +13. Probably done for the day.
4. Long @99.83. Retry on trade 3. Pure scalping at this point. -7
5. Short @99.66. Scalping here. However, bear flag channel break down. Took a bit to break the double bottom but got 15 ticks as it tested the reversal area.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #2154 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
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What drives crude oil prices?

The PandaWarrior Chronicles-eia_what_drives_crude_oil_prices.pdf


i'm sorry brian, but i just don't get - this is retail trading101. i think it what be quite helpful if you would pay special attention to pages 19-21 and perhaps take into consideration the effect of the dollar, volatility, es, and dbc. you are still trading in a vacuum with a methodology dominated by a multitude of cognitive biases and faulty heuristics. and the methodology is STILL geared toward maintaining your personal level of comfort, rather than making money. and i know you, that you know, what you need to do, and you have even verbalized it on many occasions, but when it comes down to implementing a strategy geared towards profitability, the emotional barrier comes up and you revert back to what feels best, instead.


Last edited by tigertrader; May 10th, 2014 at 07:44 PM.
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  #2155 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Thread is closing

I've had a good run as a regular poster on the forum. I think I have three of the most read threads...not 100% sure about that but I think so...anyway, I am closing this thread for a couple of reasons, it has run its course and two, there are a few people that have contacted me over the previous 12 months or so to do some consulting work for them with regards to trading and I cannot operate as a vendor with a public journal on futures.io (formerly BMT).

I want to say thanks to the many many people that have contributed to my threads both publicly and privately. There are so many I cannot possibly thank them all by name but suffice to say, if you have posted in my thread, thank you for your contribution. Also a big shout out to @Big Mike for even having such a well run forum. I've been on a few others in the distant past and I thought they were cesspools of flaming and name calling. I instantly liked the sense of traders helping traders that Mike has tried to foster. Mike even had me be a moderator at one point. I just didn't have the chops to keep up with the savy computer jocks over in Traders Hideout with all their "tech talk".

I have to say some thing about my time on futures.io (formerly BMT), when I came here I was looking for free indicators. In fact, I was directed here by a vendor that is no longer in business. I ended up staying and I have to say, other than a few other resources, most of my education in trading has come from the threads, webinars and journals here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Some members have been instrumental in my journey both publicly and privately.

I've also made a quite a few friends here on the forum, some of which I think will be life long friendships.....you know who you are....a man can never have to many friends.

The things I've learned here have helped me become consistently profitable....not to the degree that I could be but that's a statement I think most of us could make with all honestly. But its been around a year since I turned the corner and like many other things, took longer than it should or could have with the right mental approach. I have a lot to learn about myself to be sure but this game absolutely ensures you are constantly growing. I expect this will be a never ending journey.

I recently read an article by another trader and one of his most important keys to success is to have other sources of income at least while you build your account. In that regard, I am uniquely ill suited to most normal "jobs" (I am a terrible employee) and my health does not allow for other types of jobs at least right now. My wife covers most of the bills with her work and I offset whatever is left with my trading. However, its time to begin to seriously build my trading account and taking profits as earned is not the way to do that until the amount earned is significantly larger than what I wish to take out monthly and I'm not quite there yet. I want to have enough to both trade for income as well as trade for longer term wealth.

So with that in mind, I decided to become a vendor. There are people similar to me who I may at some level be able to help along the way. I enjoy talking, I enjoy trading and I enjoy talking about trading with other traders and I like earning a bit of money on the side....so to that end, I've hung my shingle out for one on one coaching to help others along their journey. A side benefit of this is when I teach or talk, I learn as much or more than the listener. I've made my living as an adult for the last 25 years by talking....if I didn't teach someone that what I had to offer was better than my competitor, I was out of a job that day.....so I became pretty good at it. And I trust in this endeavor, the same will hold true. Walking the talk is vitally important.

As an aside, I am also a live trader at TopStepTrader. This too requires discipline and time to build up. Its not an easy fix for small accounts. I've passed several combines over the last couple of years, but I could never maintain the status of live trader due to lack of discipline. However, this time through has been different. I treated the combine the same way I treated my own account and I passed the combine, then the live trader prep and then it took TST quite a long time to get my Ninja trader connection set up. Almost 60 days I think. Something to do with the way Vision interacted with TST. Anyway, its done and I can trade with TST in addition to my own account. Should be interesting.

I'll still be around but under the vendor restrictions of course.

Cheers everyone. And thanks again to everyone that contributed to all my threads......

Brian, aka Pandawarrior.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
  #2156 (permalink)
Elite Member
Holland, Michigan
 
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Wishing you all the best Brian with your new endeavors.

Rick

Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #2157 (permalink)
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Quebec
 
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Like Rick wrote, wishing you all the best. I know some look at vendors as a subspecies but don't listen to them as for many traders it is the only way to coumpound your account.

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  #2158 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Big Mike's Avatar
 
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@PandaWarrior,

Good luck with your new venture, and I hope to continue seeing you around for many years to come.

Thread closed by request.

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