I don't mean to pry, but it piques my curiosity whenever you mention your private journal. Just curious to know if you maintain your paper-based journal because it's easier to write stuff by hand, or do you think it's not structured / complete enough to post here, or does it contain details of your edge you prefer to keep under wraps?
You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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I have elements of my daily routine I'd rather not make public, I make notes while in a trade, its is very structured with checklists, etc.....I draw things in there I could never duplicate online....
But its less about that than about my motivation to keep a public journal....and that has shifted over time to the point where I question its value. My private journal suffices for what I need a journal for.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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a seemingly marginal trade, turned out to be extremely profitable, and a trade that appeared to have a high probability for success disappointed. there is always going to be uncertainty before a trade; which may not or may not be readily abated, upon initiation of the trade. but, you really don’t know until you’re in the market.
not so surprisingly, there are a lot of contradictions in trading. you have to be vigilant and patient, but on the other hand, you have to be creative and aggressive. you must synthesize these seemingly contradictory disciplines in the proper ratios and contexts, so that you can create upside optionality. keeping this in mind, we neither act on every signal, nor do we always wait for the perfect setup. in the case of over-trading, the implications are obvious. but when it comes to under-trading, the negative implications might not be so recognizable, although they can be equally responsible for under-performance or even ruin.
once again, i must reiterate, that it is imperative to have a logical understanding of positive expectation on a total outcome basis. and once again, i must reiterate, that risk in an inherent component, if not a prerequisite, of profit. failure to come to grip with either of these facts will inevitably inhibit your profitability as a trader. the obsessive hunt for “low risk” entry points, tight stop placement, trailing stops, hackneyed technique, and a myopic perspective, all contribute to the stultification of a trader's growth. one needs to operate from a perspective that allows one to avoid flawed assumptions and overly simplistic comparisons.
a trader does not have the responsibility to find the perfect spot to enter the market. the sooner he absolves himself from this guilt or fear, the better he will be for it. there is no perfect spot; and one's perception of a spot being better or worse, and even the perception of risk itself, is entirely assumption laden. perfect entry, being defined as an entry point where the market doesn’t have to move very far before you know you are wrong, is like trying to find the battery compartment lid of your remote control - an exercise in futility. so once again, i must reiterate, that trade initiation should be relegated to a tertiary role and sizing and management must become the primary focus.
the problem with being a breakout trader is you consider only two pieces of structural information, the high and low of a given time period, and ignore all the structure in between, and all the feedback from related markets. summary data does not present a complete picture of the market. the days of trading any instrument in a vacuum are gone; the markets are inextricably interconnected by theme and by arbitrage. there can be no alignment between concept, price action,and execution, if related markets are not scrutinized. understanding the context of the market leads to the ability to make fluid situational assessments and opportunity of position. a trader’s opportunity set will grow proportionally, as his “signal flow” grows, which will lead to vetted opportunities and high probability set-ups.
once a trade is initiated, subsequent trade management decisions should not be predicated on what the entry price was - the entry price (and your p&l) cease to have relevance, and has nothing to do with the validation of the trade. if your appraisal of the situational context of the market is accurate, and signals remain consistent with your expectation of the trade, you stay in the trade and add if you are given the opportunity. you exit when the trade is no longer good.
@PandaTrader once asked me what i meant by a trader’s attitude. and, as i contemplate past and present traders, there are a few traits that come to mind. a willingness to accept risk, the ability to estimate that risk based on the information available, the ability to recognize opportunity in a situational context, an understanding that expectation is different than distribution, and that p&l should be viewed over an extended period of time, and what i believe is #1 - the desire to do whatever is necessary to make money, even if it goes against your personal grain.
Last edited by tigertrader; February 1st, 2014 at 04:17 PM.
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While reading @tigertrader 's excellent recent post, it occurred to me that a great exercise (for new AND not so new traders) might be making a random entry on your favorite instrument (ON DEMO) and then focusing on managing the trade (i.e. minimizing losses, maximizing wins).
This exercise may force one to deal with the market contextuality you speak of, instead of obsessing over 'setups' or 'perfect entries'. I would further surmise that the best traders would be profitable with a random entry, as their edge lies in position management and sizing... but that's just my intuition.
"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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I have been doing my stretches daily and it did keep pain at bay but doesn't seem to be the solution. I am trying a thumb roller ball. It is pretty easy to get used to. I put a piece of foam under my palm to keep wrist straight. After 30 years of mousing it may take a few days to catch onto roller mouse. My Logitech has a utility called Setpoint which allows me to adjust the roller ball to my needs. Yesterday was my 1st day and my pain is almost gone and I am pretty happy with the roller ball.
As for shoulder pain, are U using a keyboard tray? I had my mouse on desktop before and ended up with 18 months of a frozen shoulder, the keyboard tray helped a lot.
I continue with my wrist stretches and as I am new to the roller ball, I can't vouch for this as a solution, but I am finding it pretty good so far.
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