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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #2081 (permalink)
Elite Member
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PandaWarrior View Post
The risk was 40 ticks.....taking less bordered on foolish.

Were I to quantify the edge, it was on risking the opening range for 40 ticks.....nothing less or more....essentially it either won or lost....and leaving it open until either one or the other was obtained....without regard to the actual risk involved.

Some days ended without 40 ticks but greater than zero. Other days ended without a stop out but a loss none the same.

Most days ended with a profit and not moving the stop at all was part of that test.

Unless you are prepared to trade it under these circumstances, don't bother. Find another edge. One that suits your risk more appropriately. I don't mean to be harsh but these are the conditions I've been working with.

40 ticks was may initial risk, but I had no actual risk. Once I was filled price never went against me. I took this trade in mind of your NQ BO technique, but I also took the trade because it was near the PLOD and I believed if it broke that level it would want to pop. When the 4th bar pulled back I took my profit, and then looked to enter later. Which I did once price started to break the low of the day at that time.

3 Trades total in the NQ, if I would have been more patient I could have held my initial entry all day.

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  #2082 (permalink)
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@PandaWarrior

Brian,

Saw a post where you started entering a position where your stops would normally be. To that end; would it not make sense to add to a position where your trailing stop would be?

BTW-I caught up on your journal this weekend. The past couple of months worth of posts by everyone has been outstanding! You could not buy nor put a price on the information / knowledge / wisdom that has been posted.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #2083 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
@PandaWarrior

Brian,

Saw a post where you started entering a position where your stops would normally be. To that end; would it not make sense to add to a position where your trailing stop would be?

BTW-I caught up on your journal this weekend. The past couple of months worth of posts by everyone has been outstanding! You could not buy nor put a price on the information / knowledge / wisdom that has been posted.

Robert


Indeed it would. I've been adding in places where my combined risk is the same or less than the original stop value.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #2084 (permalink)
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+/-

Been looking at a 30M chart for a few days.....its interesting to say the least....I've always looked at it from a Breakout standpoint....and while it works, the risk is huge....however on a support/resistance standpoint, it looks better....then using projections of risk to find potential targets means reward is in the 2-3 times risk area...very nice....anyway, I had the mark up on the 30M chart done last night, I knew where the level was to short today.....but didn't have the balls to take it..Risk was 34 ticks...within reason but outside my comfort zone for the moment....

Turns out I should have taken that risk....66 ticks of reward to first target.....oh well....

I finally got short much later....after going down to a smaller time frame and getting long twice....the short made up for the two losers and thats about it. A scratch day when it could have a really nice one trade day.

NQ paid on one trade again. Today I got 80 ticks....and left a little on the table. EDIT: Ok make that a lot of money on the table!

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; January 27th, 2014 at 01:22 PM.
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  #2085 (permalink)
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30M chart of Dow e mini is portentous

Funny you should mention that now, I have a 30M chart open of YM and it's been showing steadily increasing average trade size over the last couple of hours as the down side has accelerated. Are we headed for a runaway down day today? The stabilizers don't seem to be working the way they are supposed to, need more POMO!

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"If we don't loosen up some money, this sucker is going down." -GW Bush, 2008
“Lack of proof that something is true does not prove that it is not true - when you want to believe.” -Humpty Dumpty, 2014
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Prof. Albert Bartlett
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  #2086 (permalink)
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this trader looks familiar

does this trader look familiar

Attached Thumbnails
The PandaWarrior Chronicles-tigert.jpg  
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  #2087 (permalink)
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-/+....lucky today. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.


I believe that trading should be simple (not to be confused with easy) and over the last few weeks I've gradually introduced new and more complicated analysis and charts into my thinking and set up, all without realizing I was doing it. While all of these new things have value, its the context thats important and even more important is HOW I perceive the new variables.

Today I was fixated on the 30M chart to the detriment of watching what was going on in the lower time frames. I quickly realized I was wrong and flipped my position which allowed me to cover my losses from the 30M chart....but still, the complexities I have introduced over the previous few weeks has corresponded with a period of BE trading. Time to return to the simplicity which got me profitable in the first place.

Further I realized today that I might be posting charts for the purposes of either validation or simply to maintain a conversation here. The public journaling process no longer seems to be as beneficial to me as it once was. Especially since I also maintain a private paper based journal. Therefore it must be for validation or something else. I also realized the need for validation is harmful to my trading. Therefore I am going to stop posting charts for a couple of weeks and see how my mental game changes. I intend to simply post @tigertrader's short hand for the day.

Interesting point on NQ today. I set the profit target at 80 ticks, it went exactly 40 ticks from my entry and reversed all the way to the stop. It took the stop out by one tick and now as I write this, the price is back to the entry price I took at 7:40AM. Thankfully this is a sim trade still, no chance I would have taken the full stop with live money...when price failed to break through the 40 tick level, I would have trailed out at some point or perhaps gotten a BE on the trade. This would have been a case of allowing a nice winner to become a loser and with real money, I'd never do that. But for the purposes of creating a track record of straight wins vs losers, I let it play out. BE's really do nothing to validate an idea unless they are purely rule driven and even then its completely arbitrary.


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This image prompted the thinking about my own need for validation:

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; January 28th, 2014 at 04:24 PM.
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  #2088 (permalink)
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Hey @PandaWarrior, I for one find a lot of value in seeing your charts so I will be sad to see them go. In regards to the action (in NQ) today, if you watched the first 15 minutes of price action you would have noticed very obvious ranging activity. I have found that this type of behavior seems to lead to very low volatility / range bound behavior. This kind of day is actually quite rare, rarer than trend days (from what I have seen that is), I think the last time it happened was back in Dec... just a thought.

If you see this happening, you would typically look for entry / exit ranges at about the third lower high push up (2nd shoulder of head and shoulder) and support / double bottom below VWAP. I actually did anticipate this price structure but I did not trade it like that. Instead I held and hit BE but was able to enter in long from support later on.

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  #2089 (permalink)
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pbts View Post
Hey @PandaWarrior, I for one find a lot of value in seeing your charts so I will be sad to see them go. In regards to the action (in NQ) today, if you watched the first 15 minutes of price action you would have noticed very obvious ranging activity. I have found that this type of behavior seems to lead to very low volatility / range bound behavior. This kind of day is actually quite rare, rarer than trend days (from what I have seen that is), I think the last time it happened was back in Dec... just a thought.

If you see this happening, you would typically look for entry / exit ranges at about the third lower high push up (2nd shoulder of head and shoulder) and support / double bottom below VWAP. I actually did anticipate this price structure but I did not trade it like that. Instead I held and hit BE but was able to enter in long from support later on.

Hi @pbts,

I'm glad you enjoy the charts, however the purpose of a journal is to benefit oneself....and I find that I am benefitting less and less...and the reasons I continue to post becoming less and less clear....to the point where I questioned my motivation....the. I saw the pic In my last post and the motivation of continued outside validation became apparent.

So I'll still post but without charts and analysis and less frequently.

Thanks for reading...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #2090 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Hi @pbts,

I'm glad you enjoy the charts, however the purpose of a journal is to benefit oneself....and I find that I am benefitting less and less...and the reasons I continue to post becoming less and less clear....to the point where I questioned my motivation....the. I saw the pic In my last post and the motivation of continued outside validation became apparent.

So I'll still post but without charts and analysis and less frequently.

Thanks for reading...

You are the one pushing the button, do what you need to trade correctly for yourself.

I have found the posting to be beneficial for me, it requires me to review and write down what I did and why. This was a missing piece from my first trading attempt. And since I am posting it, I feel like I need to be as honest as possible, I can't lie to myself. Which I might do if it was private.

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