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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #2071 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
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Sayounara View Post
hello tigertrader, I think your words make a lot of sense. your +/- categorisation is currently on my wall right above my trading computer. I'm curious to know how do you compare the strength of 2 similar instruments. by the look of the 2 charts posted by "trendisyourfriend", I would have determined that ES was the stronger one instead, since its uptrend leading to the crash was relatively more orderly and had a better angle.

look at the sub-chart which is nq/es


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  #2072 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Anagami View Post
When considering the BEST opportunity, I feel there is another issue when comparing them (ES vs. NQ vs. YM), and that is the clarity of signals (it's not just about strength, tigertrader). When you look at your setup(s) and compare across instruments, which instrument gives the most reliable signals? Which one the least? False triggers? Clarity? Traps? How do your exits work with each of these?

I studied all three carefully over the years with respect to my setups. BY FAR, the least trappy was ES and the worst one was YM. That finding shocked me... we are told ES is poor for day trading... NQ and YM are supposed to offer better opportunities...etc. Not the case.

ES 'protects' the price levels better (not as frayed)... and makes more sense as an instrument, at least for me.

for me its more a question of liquidity risk, than what you mention above-

in any event,

it all boils down to what affords me the best chance to make the most money, whether it is the strategy i employ or the instruments i trade

and that is contingent upon my interpretation of market structure, the current theme, news, & price drivers and how inter-market relationships are affected

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  #2073 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Thursday and Friday were both loser days for my NQ ideas....Today it was back to winning.....

One trade at confirmed breakout bar, add on at +10 move stop to just above the doji bar and hold on....

+40, +30...gross +35 on blended entry....

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I thought about you today with the first big bear breakout. Once I placed my trade I asked myself, 'I wonder if Panda is in at the moment!'. Nice to see you were successful today! If I can keep my same pace I will go live on M6E in Feb.

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  #2074 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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NQ failed again....no worries.....it's just a test.

CL.....+/+ today. Had to leave or it would have been +++++++++!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #2075 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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I continue to be surprised by how often I get it right in terms of the intraday analysis and get it completely wrong on time frames higher than an hour.

Today I reduced my trigger chart and added two higher time frames for decision making. All I'm interested in is finding the level and then finding a low risk entry point.

I added to my CL trade today. I ended up having to close early but the add was perfect and I was able to hold it for a bit....interestingly enough, I was able to have a blended risk on two lots less than I took on the first lot. It worked brilliantly. I'll be doing it a lot more.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #2076 (permalink)
Elite Member
Golden Bay, New Zealand
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 113 since May 2012
Thanks: 596 given, 176 received


Anagami View Post
When considering the BEST opportunity, I feel there is another issue when comparing them (ES vs. NQ vs. YM), and that is the clarity of signals (it's not just about strength, tigertrader). When you look at your setup(s) and compare across instruments, which instrument gives the most reliable signals? Which one the least? False triggers? Clarity? Traps? How do your exits work with each of these?


tigertrader View Post
for me its more a question of liquidity risk, than what you mention above-

in any event,

it all boils down to what affords me the best chance to make the most money, whether it is the strategy i employ or the instruments i trade

and that is contingent upon my interpretation of market structure, the current theme, news, & price drivers and how inter-market relationships are affected

@tigertrader, do you backtest the same strategy on different instruments? If so, would you only trade that strategy if it produced a tradeable edge across all instruments? Say it shows a good edge in one, but only a slight edge in others - would you discount that strategy entirely, trade only the one where you had the probabilities on your side, or occasionally trade the so-so instrument if the relative strength, market themes, market structure and news seemed to line up?

How do you implement liquidity risk in your decision making? Do you backtest it as part of strategy development so you know that poor liquidity lowers expectancy for that particular strategy, or is it a general/global rule - i.e liquidity is no good here so I'll take no trades until it improves?

As I understand your last sentence, you use these as global filters - i.e - these elements look good, so I'll trade one of my strategies in this instrument if an opportunity arises, or, they look bad, so I won't consider an opportunity even if it arises. So when you deploy a new strategy for the first time there are no final hard probabilities, but rather an assumption that if the elements look bad it will adversely affect the trade. You can of course compare the hard back tested results against the actual trades over time to give you the confidence that you are doing the right thing - and this then gives you the adjusted probabilities to rely on.

I'm so caught up in mechanical hard probabilities that I'm having a hard time freeing up my mind to comprehend how other elements fit into the picture. I appreciate and want to thank you for your posts and the thoughts they have generated.

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  #2077 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
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NQ won by 1 tick....the Globex was pretty robust and there were a couple of trades I was quite clearly pre market but I was busy getting ready to leave the house for a parent teacher conference and so had limited time early on.

The BO trade worked by one tick. Had I gotten filled one tick worse, it would have been a loser.....but thats the way the ball bounces sometimes....exactly 40 ticks from my entry price....


On CL, +/+ today....I had a couple of small losers early trying to get in long...even though I was once again short biased as the daily looks poised for a pull back of sorts....proving once again I often get the daily wrong but the intra day right...go figure....Anyway, finished with 35 ticks....

I took a couple of deep pull back trades today as well....not used to this so closed them early...shame, those were pretty big winners......not counting those in the total......

some different looking trades on here for me.....I am experimenting with these kinds of trades...they are pull backs on a higher time frame chart.....so pretty nerve wracking for me at this point but getting less nervous about them already.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris

Last edited by PandaWarrior; January 23rd, 2014 at 05:02 PM.
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  #2078 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Today: -/-

This week +/+


Short bias all week yet traded long....


Short bias today, traded long....

NQ paid 40 ticks on the first bar after entry. it pulled back to the entry and is still running. The BO trade worked perfectly today though....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #2079 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
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Posts: 5,784 since Sep 2013
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PandaWarrior View Post
Today: -/-

This week +/+


Short bias all week yet traded long....


Short bias today, traded long....

NQ paid 40 ticks on the first bar after entry. it pulled back to the entry and is still running. The BO trade worked perfectly today though....

Thank you for pointing out the post yesterday. I took your NQ BO this morning, just grabbed 25 ticks. I should have let it ride. But it was a good show today!

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  #2080 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received



tturner86 View Post
Thank you for pointing out the post yesterday. I took your NQ BO this morning, just grabbed 25 ticks. I should have let it ride. But it was a good show today!

The risk was 40 ticks.....taking less bordered on foolish.

Were I to quantify the edge, it was on risking the opening range for 40 ticks.....nothing less or more....essentially it either won or lost....and leaving it open until either one or the other was obtained....without regard to the actual risk involved.

Some days ended without 40 ticks but greater than zero. Other days ended without a stop out but a loss none the same.

Most days ended with a profit and not moving the stop at all was part of that test.

Unless you are prepared to trade it under these circumstances, don't bother. Find another edge. One that suits your risk more appropriately. I don't mean to be harsh but these are the conditions I've been working with.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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