The PandaWarrior Chronicles - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The PandaWarrior Chronicles
Updated: Views / Replies:234,104 / 2,157
Created: by PandaWarrior Attachments:213

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Closed Thread
 213  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #2031 (permalink)
Elite Member
London, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, home-grown Java
Broker/Data: IB/IQFeed
Favorite Futures: EUR/USD
 
Adamus's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,085 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 470 given, 778 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Anyway, hope this answers your question.....one last thing, you should know this is sim....I plan on going live with it end of the month....that will be three months of testing and thats enough....I just hope the cycle is not over when I do....but I'll be able to tell right away if it is...the trade will stop working and I'll be able to determine that almost immediately.

Don't you want to download some market replay days for Feb 2013 and test out how it acted last year?

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
The following user says Thank You to Adamus for this post:
 
  #2032 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received


Adamus View Post
Don't you want to download some market replay days for Feb 2013 and test out how it acted last year?

imo, any relation between today's events and those of 1(x)year(s) ago is random

The following 7 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #2033 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Favorite Futures: JDAM
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,782 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 9,848 given, 11,153 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



PandaWarrior View Post
In fact I do not. I trade NQ much differently than CL. Attached is a screen shot of my trades today. I exited around the 3 day ADR and its gone another 75 ticks from there....I made 20 handles and left tons on the table.

However, my NQ method is dead simple. I plot the opening 5 minutes using @Fat Tails handy little indie, wait for a bar to close outside it and take the break of that bar either long or short. Stop goes on the opposite side of the OR. I sometimes go BE at +20 ticks but I'm learning thats generally a bad bet.

The trade was originally built on a 40 tick target but that was before the range expanded. Now it seems almost anything is reasonable...currently its at 140 ticks from my entry.....with NO pull backs....

I have a buddy trading NQ on a tick chart and he's doing well with it but he's scalping 7-8 ticks at a time but I'm taking one or at the most two trades a day. If the OR break doesnt work, I reverse at the stop and let it run...if that fails I am done. Thats happened once I think.....

Anyway, hope this answers your question.....one last thing, you should know this is sim....I plan on going live with it end of the month....that will be three months of testing and thats enough....I just hope the cycle is not over when I do....but I'll be able to tell right away if it is...the trade will stop working and I'll be able to determine that almost immediately.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

What is a handle? a Tick?

I got in around 3529 today, I just got out too early. But overall very good day.

The following 4 users say Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
  #2034 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bay Area
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Rithmic
Favorite Futures: Futures, Stocks
 
Posts: 17 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 154 given, 33 received

@PandaWarrior I've taken some of what you have been trying out with in my live trading and it seems to work.

Today was an exact mirror to yesterday, fake out and then pretty much a linear trend (for NQ). I made the mistake of trading on YM which was the weaker one. I've noticed that the ES NQ and YM are all generally directionally correlated, but one is stronger than the other two every day. Today it was the NQ and that is where I should have put my trades on. From what I've noticed lately, the stronger instrument moves farther in the direction you want and less so in the opposite direction and I'm going to try picking the strongest of the 3 to trade on each day.

You can tell the which one is strongest by where the bars move in the first +-15 minutes of the RTH open.

The following 3 users say Thank You to pbts for this post:
 
  #2035 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego, Miami & On the lake (Summer)
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ensign, Ninja, Sierra, TradeStation & MT4
Broker/Data: CQG, TT & FinFX
Favorite Futures: indices/notes/currencies/ metals/energies
 
Posts: 368 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 143 given, 602 received


sixtyseven View Post
I thought a higher win% would cut down on slippage - and would imagine commissions be about the same - therefore a higher win rate would be preferable, additionally you could risk more due to the lower std dev of returns.

Assuming of course you exited winners on a limit, and the losses with a market order. Perhaps the exit method changes when you get to the next level and have the proven ability to trade based on what the market is telling you, rather than what your fixed level exit backtesting has told you.

______________
I just found out for me that managing my trade @+100% of risk and then @150%+ of initial risk allowed enough trades to run to 2.618 reward to risk in DAYTRADING.

I need 25-35 rt's per week to have my edge play out very well.

For swingtrading methods I use 2 to 1 reward to risk and manage @150%+ of initial risk. I use 3 methods and they are each non-correlated.

I can't get my swingtrading win% much above 62% ish and in daytrading it is just a touch higher. I am a grind with size trader if I label myself.

I don't know how to dynamically raise my reward levels in terms of initial risk. I DO know how to add into open winners with additional w/trend or confirmed breakout trades.

This adds greatly to my overall profitability. Being a size trader takes care of some issues smaller traders have in terms of grinding out a quantified edge with size is still worth it just because of the absolute $$$'s being earned for the simplicity and routine of it all.

peace/hedvig

The following 6 users say Thank You to researcher247 for this post:
 
  #2036 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


pbts View Post
@PandaWarrior I've taken some of what you have been trying out with in my live trading and it seems to work.

Today was an exact mirror to yesterday, fake out and then pretty much a linear trend (for NQ). I made the mistake of trading on YM which was the weaker one. I've noticed that the ES NQ and YM are all generally directionally correlated, but one is stronger than the other two every day. Today it was the NQ and that is where I should have put my trades on. From what I've noticed lately, the stronger instrument moves farther in the direction you want and less so in the opposite direction and I'm going to try picking the strongest of the 3 to trade on each day.

You can tell the which one is strongest by where the bars move in the first +-15 minutes of the RTH open.

I don't watch the other two but I know what your saying...maybe just trade all three and ride the strongest one as far as you can....spread the risk and the reward around a bit....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #2037 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


Adamus View Post
Don't you want to download some market replay days for Feb 2013 and test out how it acted last year?

I've found this to be a complete waste of time. Supply/demand, political policies, regulatory personnel, production capacity...etc constantly change. I've read other threads where traders are looking at previous years behavior and predicting future results and I just want to laugh. Yes there are seasonalities across asset classes from year to year.....but to just rely on month over month data as some sort of probability factor is foolish.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 8 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #2038 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


tturner86 View Post
What is a handle? a Tick?

I got in around 3529 today, I just got out too early. But overall very good day.

A handle is a full point in the instrument. In this case 4 ticks. So 20 handles is 80 ticks.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 6 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #2039 (permalink)
Elite Member
Golden Bay, New Zealand
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 113 since May 2012
Thanks: 595 given, 176 received


researcher247 View Post
______________
I just found out for me that managing my trade @+100% of risk and then @150%+ of initial risk allowed enough trades to run to 2.618 reward to risk in DAYTRADING.

For swingtrading methods I use 2 to 1 reward to risk....
I can't get my swingtrading win% much above 62% ish....
I am a grind with size trader if I label myself.
peace/hedvig

Hi Hedvig,
Thanks for the reply. I'm not sure how it related to my post about win% and slippage, but that's ok.

I don't understand what you mean by manage the trade @+100% of risk. Would you mind explaining that more fully?

2R and 62% winners. I wouldn't label that a grind. Given random 2R generates ~33% winners, with roughly 37% needed to breakeven, I'd say you are doing much better than grinding.

The following 2 users say Thank You to sixtyseven for this post:
 
  #2040 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


A couple of probe trades today prior to the number. Those were scratch trades then flat for the number....wide open book, unsafe to enter.....then nothing with acceptable risk....missed the entire move. Done for the day.

Got a scratch on NQ. It went up, pulled back and if added. It went back up, reversed and I ended up scratching the whole thing. Of course I was taking a shower while that was going on and I left the house about ten minutes later....

So nothing today.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:

Closed Thread



futures io > > > The PandaWarrior Chronicles

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:07 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-12 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.163.209.109