really say a lot. I am curious @tigertrader what you view as "scalp" and "small profits"? Also, I suspect that most readers here are not financially capable of riding a trend adding along the way to an ES position.
For me, I am always trying to expand timeframe to trade a longer view. I agree totally with the idea that short timeframes draw guys into a scalp mentality. I find myself exiting profitable positions at predetermined targets based on some area of perceived S/R instead of adding to and pressing my runners. I think one possible root of that weakness is the floor mentality of not missing out on any good trades. I'm not trading firm capital or even part of a joint back office anymore, so the risk consideration jacks with both my view and what the charts are saying.
So I have to consider the aimless but comfortable stupor comment. I have daily goals or a number to hit and that is really counterproductive because I'm off the screens the minute I make the number. 200 times the daily number will pay the bills for sure but it is miles away from "floor money". I am a 1 lot to 5 lot guy now, not 50 or 100 up.
I think what you where saying is that you trade each day based on what is given and that each day is different and independent of the the next. I think I do that. I be aware now to see. My fear is that I'm just a hobbyist now, hanging on to something that is gone. While I believe that I made the transition to screen reasonable well the fact remains that I made twice as much money last yer in the "investment" account as I did trading.
Anyway, hope things are well with you. I'd love to read your expanded thoughts on that.
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@researcher247 is quoted as saying, >>But who follows any specific path? Trading is HIGHLY discretionary and personal.<<which is exactly the point i was trying to make. having a plan and executing it is a vital part of the process. strategies may be discretionary and individualized, but they are either geared to making money or not.
the outcome, irrespective of the p&l is constant. the goal is to uncover exploitable nonlinear relationships of price to price - to find ways to identify path dependency/persistence/auto-correlation, or trendiness within the massive amount of noise/ randomness, or non-linearity the market generates. this is an absolute constant that never changes. at the same time, we must project losses, manage risk, while finding signals that produce trades that are well defined, have a proven edge, and are reproducible. we must make these decisions objectively, and not allow cognitive load, stress, emotions and bias, to affect our decisions. this is an absolute constant that never changes.
the process by which we reach this outcome and the path we take determines if we lose or make money and more importantly, how much money we make. imagine the process as a living entity, not an inanimate process. these entities have a finite life and go through phases of growth, productivity, decline, obsolescence, and demise. the markets however are like energy - never created, nor destroyed, they simply change forms. if one is to continue to profit- and if one is to survive, one must continually adapt the process to the changing market. the idea is to optimize the process, so that it is always being as productive as possible while staying true to the path's course.
Last edited by tigertrader; January 12th, 2014 at 04:09 PM.
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I see a scalp as a 1:1 risk/reward. A swing is 1:2+, and a position trade is long time (Buffet style).
The market moves in cycles. You have to understand what cycle of the market you are in, in order to trade correctly. A lot of traders make the mistake of trying to trade the wrong way at the wrong time. Swing when you should scalp, scalp when you should swing.
Breakout to Trend, Trend to Channel, Channel to Range, Range to Breakout. There are opportunities in each cycle, as well as risks and nuances that need to be understood. This cycle happens on all timescales and one maybe a different cycle in a larger time frame. I.e. a trading range is a pullback on a larger time frame. A trend may be a leg inside of a trading range, etc.
The key is to understand what the market has done, what it is doing now, and the probabilities of what it will do next (within the context of your trade).
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a reference to analyzing information from a price series, and extracting returns from that information
whether it is done through testing or optimization
or by analyzing a price series by observing distribution patterns in pa and the similarities to and the implications thereof with previous events.
or we can amend that distribution based on predictive correlations
or how we foresee the future converging or diverging with the past
in either case...
the path we take and the model we follow must be well defined and remain constant.
but, the process must constantly adapt and evolve;
not merely to profit, but simply to survive
while pitted against ever-evolving competition(better informed traders, algos, hfts, ai)
in an ever-changing market.
one should not fall prey to the restrictive culture of comfort.
if one does , they are in trouble -they just don’t see it yet.
focus on the process and not past outcomes -
you are only as good as your next trade;
but if you choose the best markets and use the best process,
your best trades are ahead of you.
Last edited by tigertrader; January 12th, 2014 at 11:52 PM.
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I thought a higher win% would cut down on slippage - and would imagine commissions be about the same - therefore a higher win rate would be preferable, additionally you could risk more due to the lower std dev of returns.
Assuming of course you exited winners on a limit, and the losses with a market order. Perhaps the exit method changes when you get to the next level and have the proven ability to trade based on what the market is telling you, rather than what your fixed level exit backtesting has told you.
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In fact I do not. I trade NQ much differently than CL. Attached is a screen shot of my trades today. I exited around the 3 day ADR and its gone another 75 ticks from there....I made 20 handles and left tons on the table.
However, my NQ method is dead simple. I plot the opening 5 minutes using @Fat Tails handy little indie, wait for a bar to close outside it and take the break of that bar either long or short. Stop goes on the opposite side of the OR. I sometimes go BE at +20 ticks but I'm learning thats generally a bad bet.
The trade was originally built on a 40 tick target but that was before the range expanded. Now it seems almost anything is reasonable...currently its at 140 ticks from my entry.....with NO pull backs....
I have a buddy trading NQ on a tick chart and he's doing well with it but he's scalping 7-8 ticks at a time but I'm taking one or at the most two trades a day. If the OR break doesnt work, I reverse at the stop and let it run...if that fails I am done. Thats happened once I think.....
Anyway, hope this answers your question.....one last thing, you should know this is sim....I plan on going live with it end of the month....that will be three months of testing and thats enough....I just hope the cycle is not over when I do....but I'll be able to tell right away if it is...the trade will stop working and I'll be able to determine that almost immediately.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
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