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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1991 (permalink)
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Capitulation anyone??????? anyone????

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1992 (permalink)
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Austin, TX
 
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Sazon View Post
Have you ever traded with real money on the line or, as I suspect, you're most likely sitting in public housing and cashing your welfare checks. But you're one helluva writer. In fact, some of your posts are spot on or shall I say,...too perfect. Almost, like you've never traded a day in your life with real emotions. 95% of traders are loser wannabes. Now I know you're in the 95% piker crowd but if I ever need someone to pretend to be guru, my way or the highway, I have all the answers and mine are better than yours, then I know who to go to.

Edit: don't even bother responding. I don't compete with gurus for attention. That's a game I'm sure to lose. I'm done here.

Live trading is nothing but grey. There is no right or wrong. Better to start small and scale into a good trade then jump full force into every signal.

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  #1993 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post
@Sazon: I'm sure you're the second coming of Ray Dalio, or Jeremy Grantham, but I really don't think you hear what I'm saying, or you wouldn't be spewing out such nonsense. If a trade is good enough to make its good enough to make at full size, if a trade is not good enough to make at full size, then don't make it at all. If a trade is no longer good, get out. If a trade is still good, don't get out. The decision to initiate a trade , and the determination of whether to stay in or get out of a trade should not have anything to do with your P&L - there is no grey area here. The kind of fine tuning you describe may give you the feeling of being very accurate, but in fact, appears to be as arbitrary as the wind blowing across your ass.

I agree. You should also have a target and loss limit set before you enter the trade. (Again those limits should be set on the market and not what you want for p&l). I like the steak metaphor.

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  #1994 (permalink)
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Sazon View Post
Have you ever traded with real money on the line or, as I suspect, you're most likely sitting in public housing and cashing your welfare checks. But you're one helluva writer. In fact, some of your posts are spot on or shall I say,...too perfect. Almost, like you've never traded a day in your life with real emotions. 95% of traders are loser wannabes. Now I know you're in the 95% piker crowd but if I ever need someone to pretend to be guru, my way or the highway, I have all the answers and mine are better than yours, then I know who to go to.

Edit: don't even bother responding. I don't compete with gurus for attention. That's a game I'm sure to lose. I'm done here.

Anonymity is the mother of courage.

Please do not trash talk my guests publicly. If you want to do this, please contact them directly outside this thread.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1995 (permalink)
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Nice day

Not much time nor are my wrists feeling real great....

TWIT (Thoughts while in trade)

I traded without a target today on the first trade....couldn't really handle that very well....but I did it and I will do it again tomorrow.

I then compromised by using a 100 tick target. That worked better. Closed at +51 and netted 43 after the foolishness in the compression zone.

I ran out of time to hold the final short any longer.

NQ got me for a small loss but I re-sold it and rode it for 15-16 handles....cant really remember right now and I need to leave so thats close enough for now....It went further, even to my 60M chart target but not until after a number of bars had went by....I'm ok with the trade for now, I held it almost to the 10 ADR....

Til tomorrow....

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1996 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Capitulation anyone??????? anyone????

Maybe, but I doubt most of the buyers in the November range (and for that matter, any holding positions initiated in Q1 and Q2 of 2013) have felt pain yet. Let it get below 90, and I'll bet you see some pain.

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  #1997 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Maybe, but I doubt most of the buyers in the November range (and for that matter, any holding positions initiated in Q1 and Q2 of 2013) have felt pain yet. Let it get below 90, and I'll bet you see some pain.

I agree....I was just wishing for capitulation DOWN to those levels so my trade would work faster....I was getting impatient!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1998 (permalink)
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Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

I got my win today on the 5M chart since I didnt like the way the 800tick chart looked. I got my order in, it filled and it took off. I was using a 100 tick target and it started stalling out in the 45 tick area, I ended up trailing out at +40. It went 50 ticks and reversed. By the time it started stalling, I knew I would be looking for 50 ticks and I moved my target up to the 50 tick location. And still it refused to fill me on the first impulse move down.

I skipped the NQ trade this morning as I was mostly done already before the NQ open and I didnt really feel like working any more. However, the NQ morning break out trade worked today like its worked nearly every day the last 2.5 months. A couple more weeks and I will put live money on it. I keep waiting for it to have an open and then stall inside the range like CL does....so far I think its done it once or twice since I've been watching it....crazy.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 7 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1999 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
Al Brooks has done the trading community a disservice by stating that 80% of breakouts fail. His definition is every bar whose high is broken is a break out and under that definition I suppose he might be right. But real breakouts have tell tale signs. A fast tape, clear consolidation areas, and occasionally a false breakout followed by the real one much like we saw on one of the NQ charts.

I do not use bracket orders. I try to figure out which way it's going and go that way with a confirmed breakout.

Yes you can use limit orders on the breakout pullback but depending in the nature of your instrument, you may not get those very often.

Typically, I am only interested in the initial breakout. Once in, I want to add to the position, not exit and re-enter on every leg. This is something I did for a long time and could never make it work. I never chase an entry, if you miss it, you miss it. And limit orders mean you will miss a fair number of good trades. So I just click In or use a stop market order.

I can't speak to VP or the other items you mentioned but I'm sure they're beneficial in timing this stuff.

Have a wonderful holiday!

Brian

I agree with you on breakouts. The way I see it is EVERY breakout fails. You have the breakout then you have some type of pullback. That pullback can happen within a 5 min candle or over the next few bars. From that pullback the market either decides to continue the breakout or reverse (reverse can be opposite direction or sideways).

Usually I wait for this pullback to determine whether to trade the breakout or look for a reversal signal.

So example: This morning's NQ breakout. Market opened up, first bar started down. This is the pullback. Bar finished doji. At this point I am looking to see if breakout will continue. Entered on second strong bar at 3540. And I was taken out at 3545 with the doji while trailing my stop.

Another example of the opposite side is yesterday: @ 10:15 we had been in a trading range for over an hour. We have a spike down through the floor. Instead of following it in I waited for the next bar. With the next bar being a doji I was looking for an entry in either direction. The following bar was a large bull closing high on it's tick, took the trade around 3512. I got out early later as I had to go and couldn't wait any longer. This setup would have yield 16 points if held all day. And quite possibly the best trade of the day.

Anyways thank you very much, I have enjoyed reading your journal over the last week or so.

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  #2000 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received



tturner86 View Post
I agree with you on breakouts. The way I see it is EVERY breakout fails. You have the breakout then you have some type of pullback. That pullback can happen within a 5 min candle or over the next few bars. From that pullback the market either decides to continue the breakout or reverse (reverse can be opposite direction or sideways).

Usually I wait for this pullback to determine whether to trade the breakout or look for a reversal signal.

So example: This morning's NQ breakout. Market opened up, first bar started down. This is the pullback. Bar finished doji. At this point I am looking to see if breakout will continue. Entered on second strong bar at 3540. And I was taken out at 3545 with the doji while trailing my stop.

Another example of the opposite side is yesterday: @ 10:15 we had been in a trading range for over an hour. We have a spike down through the floor. Instead of following it in I waited for the next bar. With the next bar being a doji I was looking for an entry in either direction. The following bar was a large bull closing high on it's tick, took the trade around 3512. I got out early later as I had to go and couldn't wait any longer. This setup would have yield 16 points if held all day. And quite possibly the best trade of the day.

Anyways thank you very much, I have enjoyed reading your journal over the last week or so.

Glad you are enjoying the thread...so many people visit and either don't thank or don't post...its nice when someone does...

I have tried and tried to find 3540 and 3512 on my charts....I am trading NQ which at least on my charts moves in .25 increments....3500,3500.25. 3500.50. 3500.75, 3600...etc....are you watching something different?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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