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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #101 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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bluemele View Post
Well, I noticed a distinct difference these last two days also. No doubt....

It has been a choppy mess of big retracements and then continuations. However, because of that I have been doing my best to wait wait wait, but it is the challenge when you are a fledgling trader (me not you).

I agree, conditions are probably not the best.

I trade the CL with a pretty rigid manual mechanical system rule set. On typical days, I get between 40 and 50 signals between 8:00am-3:00pm EST. Today I got about 15. I trade a very small time frame, I don't know about the higher time frames, my time was just a mess. So, the beauty of a mechanical rule set, is that since it was not designed for this type of market, it kept me out of the market much of the time today with 15 signals instead of 50. As a trader, I don't need to constantly have to analyze the market, and during the heat of battle, come to the realization the market conditions just aren't right, only after I'm already half way to my daily loss limit. Many people say mechanical rules don't work when the market changes, well that is exactly what they are supposed to do, keep you out of market environments you have no business trading.

If you had followed your rules to the letter, how would the results of your trading differ the last couple of days? This is why I think it is important for traders to compare their actual trading performance, to the theoretical performance of their method. I still do this everyday. Everyday, after market, I go through my charts and mark them up exactly as my trading plan says they should have been traded, and compare to my actual performance. If you do that enough times, you will subconsciously build confidence in the plan, and your brain will gradually convince itself to start adhering to it, and let go of all the bad trading impulses.

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  #102 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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monpere View Post
I trade the CL with a pretty rigid manual mechanical system rule set. On typical days, I get between 40 and 50 signals between 8:00am-3:00pm EST. Today I got about 15. I trade a very small time frame, I don't know about the higher time frames, my time was just a mess. So, the beauty of a mechanical rule set, is that since it was not designed for this type of market, it kept me out of the market much of the time today with 15 signals instead of 50. As a trader, I don't need to constantly have to analyze the market, and during the heat of battle, come to the realization the market conditions just aren't right, only after I'm already half way to my daily loss limit. Many people say mechanical rules don't work when the market changes, well that is exactly what they are supposed to do, keep you out of market environments you have no business trading.

If you had followed your rules to the letter, how would the results of your trading differ the last couple of days? This is why I think it is important for traders to compare their actual trading performance, to the theoretical performance of their method. I still do this everyday. Everyday, after market, I go through my charts and mark them up exactly as my trading plan says they should have been traded, and compare to my actual performance. If you do that enough times, you will subconsciously build confidence in the plan, and your brain will gradually convince itself to start adhering to it, and let go of all the bad trading impulses.

This is good stuff. The method should keep you out or reduce your exposure to the market if conditions are not right. I like this.

Also, the actual vs theoretical each day is something I've gotten away from. I will start doing this again.

I don't get as many signals as you do as I think I am trading a larger range bar than you but in the course of an entire trading day, I can 15-20, most of which are in the first three hours after the opening. At least this is the normal time of day for the best follow through. Catching 2-5 of those with a decent profit target is enough.

Using ADR as an input to determine target size these last two days, I am really beginning to realize this could be a legit way of determining approximately how many ticks I should be targeting for the day.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #103 (permalink)
 worldwary 
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monpere View Post
I trade the CL with a pretty rigid manual mechanical system rule set. On typical days, I get between 40 and 50 signals between 8:00am-3:00pm EST. Today I got about 15. I trade a very small time frame, I don't know about the higher time frames, my time was just a mess. So, the beauty of a mechanical rule set, is that since it was not designed for this type of market, it kept me out of the market much of the time today with 15 signals instead of 50. As a trader, I don't need to constantly have to analyze the market, and during the heat of battle, come to the realization the market conditions just aren't right, only after I'm already half way to my daily loss limit. Many people say mechanical rules don't work when the market changes, well that is exactly what they are supposed to do, keep you out of market environments you have no business trading.

There are unfortunately some days that can give you lots of picture-perfect trading signals that all turn into losers. Those days are killers. Tuesday of this week was like that for me.

A dip-buying system, for instance, is vulnerable to trend moves that fizzle before they go very far. This is very difficult to avoid as the beginning of a trend that's about to fizzle looks just like the beginning of a trend that's about to take off for a huge move.

There are a few ways to try to deal with this kind of "wolf in sheep's clothing" environment, none of which is perfect:

1. Develop additional filters that will keep you from trading when there's a chance that the day could be full of false signals. The downside is that the number of trades will decrease, and also that your filters might not work as well as you expect. Curve fitting can be a problem here as well as you can find yourself developing filters that would have avoided the last few bad days but might not work in the future.

2. Stop trading after a preset stop loss or a number of consecutive losses. The downside is that you'll prevent yourself from trading out of a slump and are vulnerable to days that start off poorly but would end profitable if you kept trading.

3. Take all signals, regardless. The downside is that you're vulnerable to huge drawdowns if market conditions change in a way that renders your system worthless.

It is a difficult quandary and I still haven't worked out the best solution for me.

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  #104 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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worldwary View Post


There are unfortunately some days that can give you lots of picture-perfect trading signals that all turn into losers. Those days are killers. Tuesday of this week was like that for me.

A dip-buying system, for instance, is vulnerable to trend moves that fizzle before they go very far. This is very difficult to avoid as the beginning of a trend that's about to fizzle looks just like the beginning of a trend that's about to take off for a huge move.

There are a few ways to try to deal with this kind of "wolf in sheep's clothing" environment, none of which is perfect:

1. Develop additional filters that will keep you from trading when there's a chance that the day could be full of false signals. The downside is that the number of trades will decrease, and also that your filters might not work as well as you expect. Curve fitting can be a problem here as well as you can find yourself developing filters that would have avoided the last few bad days but might not work in the future.

2. Stop trading after a preset stop loss or a number of consecutive losses. The downside is that you'll prevent yourself from trading out of a slump and are vulnerable to days that start off poorly but would end profitable if you kept trading.

3. Take all signals, regardless. The downside is that you're vulnerable to huge drawdowns if market conditions change in a way that renders your system worthless.

It is a difficult quandary and I still haven't worked out the best solution for me.

Well, I think you have to understand your method. In a dip buying system, you would not be trying to catch the beginning of trends, you would want to wait for an established trend, and then start buying dips. But you would have to expect to generally lose on the last dip of the trend, and possibly miss the first dip of the trend, and you have to make sure that there generally are enough dips left over to make up possibly for the higher risk first and last dips of that trend move.

In general, due to the nature and frequency of trends and the performance profile of trending methods, the trader faces various issues they have to be able to deal with:

- Trends are few and far in between, so winners are few and far in between
- Losing signals signals that look like beginning of trends are more common then actual trend moves
- Winners must be big enough to make up for the multiple small losing signals that fizzle out
- Winners must be big enough to provide profit after making up for the previous multiple losses
- Trader must have patience to ride the trend as long as possible
- Trader must have the fortitude to sit through several trend pullbacks
- Trader must have the stop management skill to avoid getting stopped out early in the pullbacks and fake trend termination signs
- Trader must have emotional fortitude not to regret money left on the table when trend continues after they are stopped out
- Many small losses, few large winners, add risk to the overall method
- Losses are evenly spread across a large number of trades, profits are spread across a very small number of trades
- Winners carry a lot more weight then losers in the method's performance profile
- Missed or botched winners have significantly increased impact to the overall profitability of the method
- One missed winner, can make or break your profitability for the day, the week
- One missed trend day is even more significant, and can make or break your month

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  #105 (permalink)
 worldwary 
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monpere View Post
Well, I think you have to understand your method. In a dip buying system, you would not be trying to catch the beginning of trends, you would want to wait for an established trend, and then start buying dips. But you would have to expect to generally lose on the last dip of the trend, and possibly miss the first dip of the trend, and you have to make sure that there generally are enough dips left over to make up possibly for the higher risk first and last dips of that trend move.

Yes, generally agreed. The earliest you can get into a trend is the second dip as that's the earliest point that you've had a confirmed trend (a HL/HH or LH/LL pattern). From that point there's no telling if that particular trend will have two, three, four or more legs before it peters out, or how large any of those legs will be. If two, your first entry will be a loss; if three, usually a small gain; if more, a decent profit.

The worst kind of day for this type of system is a day that produces a lot of two- or three-dip trends without any larger ones. Rangebound days in other words.

I think the general wisdom among trend traders is to take every signal as you never really know which trend, or which day, will be the one that gives you the big payoff. That probably is the rational approach but is difficult to implement when the market goes into an extended sideways period.

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  #106 (permalink)
 Surly 
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worldwary View Post
2. Stop trading after a preset stop loss or a number of consecutive losses. The downside is that you'll prevent yourself from trading out of a slump and are vulnerable to days that start off poorly but would end profitable if you kept trading.

Just wanted to note that continuing to trade after you hit a preset daily stop loss (in order to avoid missing those instances in which you would have come back to even or better) is logically equivalent to holding a losing trade past your pre-determined stop loss or risk parameter.

Sorry for the non-sequitur, this is just something I've been specifically thinking about lately...

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  #107 (permalink)
 monpere 
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Surly View Post
Just wanted to note that continuing to trade after you hit a preset daily stop loss (in order to avoid missing those instances in which you would have come back to even or better) is logically equivalent to holding a losing trade past your pre-determined stop loss or risk parameter.

Sorry for the non-sequitur, this is just something I've been specifically thinking about lately...

I agree with that to some extent. The important point is that daily loss limit cannot be some arbitrary number you choose because that is the loss amount you are psychologically comfortable with. I think that is how most traders choose their daily loss limit. The daily loss limit has to be based upon the statistical data of your method. Example, if your method generally gives 15 signals every day with a 60% win rate using 2:1 ratio, and you decide that you are only comfortable only with the amount of 3 sequential stop losses, then that makes no sense, the odds are in your favor to continue to trade rather then stop.

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  #108 (permalink)
 Surly 
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monpere View Post
I agree with that to some extent. The important point is that daily loss limit cannot be some arbitrary number you choose because that is the loss amount you are psychologically comfortable with. I think that is how most traders choose their daily loss limit. The daily loss limit has to be based upon the statistical data of your method. Example, if your method generally gives 15 signals every day with a 60% win rate using 2:1 ratio, and you decide that you are only comfortable only with the amount of 3 sequential stop losses, then that makes no sense, the odds are in your favor to continue to trade rather then stop.

I agree with your statements for trading approaches that are very (or completely) mechanical in nature. However, for discretionary traders there are two factors which can affect trading results that have little to do with a statistical analysis of trading results:

1. Discretionary traders must make decisions in real time - emotion is necessary for decision making and emotion can become disruptive if losses exceed a given value. Also, emotions can be disruptive for other reasons (personal life events, etc) as well. A daily loss limit can be used to guard against trading during times of emotional disruption and this amount would not be correlated with the statistics of your method (as measured by backtesting). Thus a daily loss limit should be set at a "loss amount you are psychologically comfortable with" - of course one needs a certain level of self-knowledge to make sure this level is set appropriately and not simply to coddle oneself.

2. Discretionary traders are often better or worse at certain types of markets than others (an over-simplification that is often quoted being the distinction between trending and ranging markets). Thus a daily loss limit can guard against trading one's account when markets are not cooperating with a particular discretionary trader's strengths.

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  #109 (permalink)
 worldwary 
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PandaWarrior, haven't heard from you in a while. Have you been on vacation?

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  #110 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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worldwary View Post
PandaWarrior, haven't heard from you in a while. Have you been on vacation?

I have been on a vacation. From obsessing about trading. I decided to try and just walk away most days after I am done. I have threatened to do this several times. Its been hard. I like trading, I like reading about it and I like seeing what other people are doing. But it was becoming obsessive to the point my daughter was complaining about me always working.

So I just stopped. When I'm done trading, I do my spreadsheets, talk to my trading buddies a bit and then walk away. I have to say, its been nice. I've gotten a lot done, read about 6 non trading books and I think 2-3 trading books.

And I've finally come to the place where I am satisfied with a certain amount of daily profit. I've been profitable now about 23 days out of thirty and my loser days have been small. To be fair some of the profitable days have been pretty small. But any day you walk away from the battle with green in your pocket is good.

I've developed along with one of my trading buddies a way to determine when to quit if I am up and when to quit if I am down but not at my daily stop. Basically a trailing stop on profits and a circuit breaker on losses.

Currently I am working on building my account to the point where I can begin to take a small income without jeopardizing my working capital. I think I will be there in the next couple of weeks assuming I do nothing stupid. At this point, I intend to take less than half my monthly profits as income, so in theory anyway, the account will continue to grow and I can increase size as it grows.

I'll continue to post of course but it won't be about set ups or stop loss placement or the normal stuff. As time has progressed, I'm becoming less and less convinced the money is in the set up...while thats important to be sure, its also about the right frame of mind to actually take the set ups and the right frame of mind to exit when you are supposed to. And quitting for the day before you give every thing back and knowing you can actually stop. No gambling.

Here's a chart if anyone is interested. I've removed all the hand drawn trend lines. There were quite a few today.

https://screencast.com/t/mu8osC0whq

Til next time.

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #111 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Last week was a profitable week BUT it came in a very unproductive manner. Basically the entire week was a wash except for Friday when I made 50 ticks of profit. That put me over the hump of having consecutive profitable weeks. However, I was really displeased with my trading overall. In particular, I made a mental error not once but twice on inventory day last week. That haunted me all week. I had a hard time shaking the feeling in the pit of my stomach about how badly I performed that day.

I did shake it off to a degree in time to have a good Friday but in all honesty, I thought I was past the stupid mental errors for the most part. I suppose the mark of a good trader is maximizing the time between mental errors.

When Fat Tails posted his VisualSMA for plotting time based MA's on non time based charts, my world shifted. I've always struggled to make real sense of MTFA. I understand it should and does work, but reconciling the different charts has always been a struggle. Some days I would get it and others it would be like staring at a black hole.

But when I was able to plot moving averages from say a 5 min chart on my range chart, something clicked into place for me. I was able to see the trend better and more importantly, how my range chart was playing out inside that context. My love/hate relationship with moving averages was over in an instant and while not the holy grail, the chart set up I concocted over the last couple of weeks using this tool has helped me reach a new level of confidence of being able to "see" the market.

Today I traded for the first time in real time, the chart set up I think I will use from now on. I've have simplified my charts over time, rearranged the colors, and in general made all manner of changes. Now, all I have are two moving averages, one of which is the 5 min plotted on the range chart and some fib levels. Thats it. And I like it.

So going forward, no changes to anything for at least two weeks. I have a couple higher time frame charts I will look at but not plot on the range chart. Its to messy as it is now and by the time I get through drawing trend lines on it during live trading, it can be really bad.

Keeping in mind this journal is primarily for me to look back at periodically and remind myself of where I've come from and what the journey looked like, I feel it necessary to address a couple of things.

1. What happened to the super trend indicator? First of all, this was a necessary step in the journey. I needed to be able to only trade the trend and as the name suggests, it is a super trend indicator. Its wonderful for keeping you in trades for long periods of time. BUT, I don't trade that way and so it was useless to me in the sense that its primary purpose was staying in a single trade for a long time. Secondly, I found it just as useless in chop as a normal moving average. So the two main areas of importance were of no use to me.

2. Why these changes now? If what I had was working, why change? Good question. As I told a friend of mine, I think the reason I am alive to fight another day is this. Rigid adherence to money management policy. In other words, honor my daily stops and use my losing streak circuit breaker. That way when I am losing, I lose small and when I win, I win at a level that while not fantastic, keeps me in the game. Otherwise, I told him, I still feel like 50% of what I do is flying by the seat of my pants and not 100% rule based.

After this last week and especially today, I am willing to not be 100% rules based in terms of what the set ups look like. In other words, I now know pretty much what a set up "SHOULD" look like but it does not have to be exact. I have freed myself to be a little more reliant on feel......based on what the market is doing right now.

3. Why not trade the five min chart if you are using that for trend? Another excellent question and the answer is simple....the size of the stops are almost way to much for me. Using the range chart allows me to see the action inside the 5 min chart and place stops closer than would otherwise be possible with the 5M. That being said, I recognize the possibility of being stopped out on a trade that would otherwise been just fine using the stops on the 5 min chart. I accept that as the price to pay for needing to limit my per trade draw down.

Lastly, I've settled into a mentality that says "I no longer demand the market give me "x" number of tick per trade. Instead, I've changed it to "I believe price will attain "x" level based on the current look of the chart. Therefore between here and there, I will attempt to extract "x" ticks in "x" increments. In other words, if I think price has room to run 100 ticks, I will look to pull between 10-20 ticks per trade. To do this, I am looking at pull backs in the trend to a moving average and more importantly, a hand drawn trend line. I will exit the trade BEFORE the high/low of the current swing. I do not want to have to make a new high or low to obtain my profit on this trade. If in the execution of this plan, I am stopped out but believe the premise is still valid, I will reenter. If the premise has changed, I will remain flat until a new premise is developed.

Just another stop on my journey.

Cheers

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #112 (permalink)
r3algood
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PandaWarrior View Post
Last week was a profitable week BUT it came in a very unproductive manner. Basically the entire week was a wash except for Friday when I made 50 ticks of profit. That put me over the hump of having consecutive profitable weeks. However, I was really displeased with my trading overall. In particular, I made a mental error not once but twice on inventory day last week. That haunted me all week. I had a hard time shaking the feeling in the pit of my stomach about how badly I performed that day.

I did shake it off to a degree in time to have a good Friday but in all honesty, I thought I was past the stupid mental errors for the most part. I suppose the mark of a good trader is maximizing the time between mental errors.

Panda, you made a few mistakes, you realized your mistakes and then you worked on correcting them... Sounds like you are ahead of the game. You even came out of the week with a profit. Great post man, it sounds like you recognize your mistakes and are working on them. Next week you'll knock em out!

Keep it up!

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  #113 (permalink)
 cory 
the coin hunter
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I see you are trying out Perry method with your own tweak. Maybe we can simplify it more.

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  #114 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
I see you are trying out Perry method with your own tweak. Maybe we can simplify it more.

I happened upon this by chance. I had decided never to change my charts but I kept noticing how many people were participating in the thread so I watched the webinar and decided I liked the premise.

And while I loved the idea of the HTF ma's, with such a short term profit objective of 4 ticks on 6E, I didn't see the point. If I was gonna shoot for 100 ticks, then sure, I would absolutely trade with the higher time frames. On Cl with a short profit target, you can be wrong about the HTF and still make 10 or more ticks.

So I dumped all the extra MA's concentrated on the DMplus and the correct stack along with some feel and was I every surprised.

That being said, I the DMplus is a little difficult for me to read. I confess to being less than wonderful with eye hand coordination. So I need something super simple. I will check your template and see how it compares.

From where I sit, I'm not sure how much more simplified it can get. 3MA's and a single filter at the bottom. I like the idea of bars at the bottom instead of intersecting lines so we will see.

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  #115 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Just wanted to be in and out today. +20 ticks using a variation on Perry's method.

That's it for today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #116 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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The little red triangle is the one I didn't take....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #117 (permalink)
 perryg 
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The little red triangle is the one I didn't take....


Try putting back the PPmas ie. at least the SMA(1)typical and the SMA(3) typical, and see if they would not have filtered out your losing trades. Then for fun see if a HTM would have also helped using anaVisualSMA(1)typical. I have attached a chart showing this. I hope I understood what you were trying to do.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Emotions got the better of me today. My daily circuit breaker stop loss kicked in. I broke it by a few ticks. Not enough to cause to much damage but enough to make me sit back and examine why I did it.

Regarding the simplified Perry method, I have this to say about that, each day that goes by trading this simpler set up is one more day that I like it more and more.

Today, I began the process of writing my own rules for it. Mostly they will revolve around how many trades to take and when. I have also observed some price action filters that help frame the next trade. I'll elaborate more when I have formalized them.

Essentially though, I am just scalping here. 10 ticks most of the time. Its not much but Perry demonstrated how you can make plenty of money taking high probability trades and scaling up as the equity curve grows. So that's what I am doing. My identity crises over what kind of trader I am is behind me. The runners don't bother me anymore. I just want to nibble some off the carcass of the elephant as it were. There are plenty of excellent set ups to get 10 or so ticks without to much trouble.

Trouble is, this still demands I work with my emotions. They come and go and its hard to tell when they will usurp control over my behavior. I've fought them a lot the last few days.

Tomorrow, my game plan is ten trades following my still fledgling rules. After that, I quit no matter what. The goal is not to just make money but to recognize and work with my emotions and to have a goal of executing ten trades with precision regardless of the outcome of those trades.

Tomorrow, I'll post a chart with the trades notated.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #119 (permalink)
 Bengaltiger 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Emotions got the better of me today. My daily circuit breaker stop loss kicked in. I broke it by a few ticks. Not enough to cause to much damage but enough to make me sit back and examine why I did it.

Regarding the simplified Perry method, I have this to say about that, each day that goes by trading this simpler set up is one more day that I like it more and more.

Today, I began the process of writing my own rules for it. Mostly they will revolve around how many trades to take and when. I have also observed some price action filters that help frame the next trade. I'll elaborate more when I have formalized them.

Essentially though, I am just scalping here. 10 ticks most of the time. Its not much but Perry demonstrated how you can make plenty of money taking high probability trades and scaling up as the equity curve grows. So that's what I am doing. My identity crises over what kind of trader I am is behind me. The runners don't bother me anymore. I just want to nibble some off the carcass of the elephant as it were. There are plenty of excellent set ups to get 10 or so ticks without to much trouble.

Trouble is, this still demands I work with my emotions. They come and go and its hard to tell when they will usurp control over my behavior. I've fought them a lot the last few days.

Tomorrow, my game plan is ten trades following my still fledgling rules. After that, I quit no matter what. The goal is not to just make money but to recognize and work with my emotions and to have a goal of executing ten trades with precision regardless of the outcome of those trades.

Tomorrow, I'll post a chart with the trades notated.

Cheers.

Hi,

Just wanted to say that I had been following Perry from his initial days simply because his style closely resonated what I was looking for, i.e. Simplicity and Scalping. I admit that the new nuance (post webinar) is great but I am still having trouble with the HTMA's and have decided to drop them (the usual reason that it looks great in hindsight but in real time it's eithe going the wrong way or tough to decipher). I am trading the 6E and use either a 4RB or 6RB chart. All these years of being rules driven, I now find that to take the trades based on what I am seeing on the chart is difficult because the rules are not hard and fast, kind of in the mind's eye.

Maybe we could compare some notes on the rules?

And Hats off to Perry for putting so many of us on the right path.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I took the trades shown on the screen live. After that, I took nearly 40 sim trades today testing all aspects of the rules I posted on the chart.

Every successful trader I have ever talked to says super simple is better. I agree. Now more than ever. Look at the chart. Its basically @Perrys chart or at least it started out that way. To be honest, I understand the reasons behind all the moving averages and I agree with their purpose. But the chart is to messy for me so I needed to strip it down a bit and use the basics and just trade PA in and around the remaining MA's.

I tried the DMplus for a couple of days and found that it seriously lagged a true pull back entry. Most of the time it did not confirm a trade until at least two bars had passed and sometimes three. By then, the trade was almost over if you think in terms of taking a trade at a mean regression or to put it simply, a pull back to a moving average and scalping your profit out BEFORE the swing high or low is reached. I think this accounts for the 4 tick target Perry is using. To be fair, this does work for small profit targets so no disrespect to Perry on this. He has found something that works for him and I applaud him for it. For me though, giving up so much of the trade in order to have confirmation was problematic. It demands a large stop. One that is large enough to fit nicely behind the most recent swing high or low. So on a 4 range chart, a 12 tick stop will usually get that done. Of course, on a 4 rang chart, you can exit much sooner than that since the chart structure could very well change and nullify your trade before that stop is hit. On an 8 range bar, doing this would result in a fairly large stop in relation to the profit targets.

So yesterday after trading was over, I got away from my charts and just mentally picturing the charts in my head, I began to visualize what a good entry looked like but more importantly, what a bad one looked like. Oddly enough, it was clearer to me doing this mentally instead of doing it looking at a chart because the visual of the chart prejudiced me. But mentally, I could see the bars, the MA's and how price played out around the MA's and I suddenly realized the true purpose of the PPma's that Perry uses. They really do show the very short term market internals and so I dashed back to the computer, threw them back on the chart and realized the PPma coincided most of the time with a certain 5EMA pattern. That is reflected on the chart in rule 5. No need for the extra MA's. The existing one shows the same thing for the most part.

So after live trading with at least a nod toward obeying the rules I posted....at the time they were just in my head, I took many sim trades testing these rules in real time. Obeying them produced mostly winners and breaking them produced mostly losers. I think I got away with a rule break once or twice but the evidence overwhelmingly proved to me that obeying these simple rules will keep me on the safe side of the trade. Not 100% but enough.

4 Range charts on CL is way to fast for me. Even today, an 8 range was pretty quick at certain times when price was flying around all over the place so I placed my 12 range chart on top of the 8 with the exact same EMA combination and while things were hectic, I waited for the same setups on the 12 range and entered them 4 ticks early on the 8 range. This worked pretty well and I may consider using this more in the future. Mostly I did this to quiet the noise on the 8. On less volatile days, the 8 will be ok.

I'll try to simplify things further tomorrow but I think its pretty simple now. After the last few days in which I have battled my emotions and came away with some scars to show for it, today was fun. Going in I knew exactly what I wanted to see in terms of a set up, exactly how many ticks to shoot for and most importantly, what "set ups" to ignore.

I will repeat this experiment tomorrow in real time. Hopefully I can simplify even more and tomorrow I will try to execute only rule based trades instead of take all trades approach I did today.




Cheers.

PS. I need to make it clear here that I am NOT creating a new method that I would teach to any one nor am I saying my method is better or worse than Perry's. He has done something that is repeatable and sustainable and I for one am glad I stumbled across his thread and benefited from his thinking. My main issue is I have trouble processing so many different indicators on the chart and I quite frankly hate oscillators of any kind.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 bluemele 
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This method is so similar to Shadow Traders. A good friend of mine trades their method but they really never convinced me because their money management sucked. I think if you have good money management, then this should work.

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
This method is so similar to Shadow Traders. A good friend of mine trades their method but they really never convinced me because their money management sucked. I think if you have good money management, then this should work.

I agree. First money management then the next thing is to be right a lot. Using smaller targets helps with this. You can be wrong and still make money. This is another reason I think Perry's method is good. You can be in a bad trade and still make a small profit.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #123 (permalink)
 cory 
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PandaWarrior View Post
...
So yesterday after trading was over, I got away from my charts ..
Cheers.

by not looking at chart you can see it better, a real head scratcher.


Quoting 
These patterns repeat mulitple times...

if you really really really believe this you will conquer the fear of missing out, fear of taking a loss and slain habit of taking win too early (they are many faces of the same problem).

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 Surly 
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PW - I saw a post yesterday in which you spoke of managing emotions. Many of us struggle with this (me for sure) - Here's a book that I got recently which has a TON of great advice on helping with this problem. Its not a trading book but 90% of the ideas apply directly to discretionary trading. I highly recommend it.

Mental Game of Poker

cheers, and thanks for your thread. Still helpful.

(I hope it goes without saying that I have nothing to do with the guy who wrote this book...)

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #125 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
by not looking at chart you can see it better, a real head scratcher.


if you really really really believe this you will conquer the fear of missing out, fear of taking a loss and slain habit of taking win too early (they are many faces of the same problem).


Go figure. I guess for some reason I could just "see" the chart and the patterns in my brain. I think I was visualizing what a good entry/exit combination looked like without actually being in front of the chart. When I got back to the chart, the same visual patterns were there to see.....I don't even begin to try and explain how this happened or if it will be repeated. It just did.

I think the process of taking tons of trades based on what I have observed so far will instill that belief deep inside me. I have a confession to make here. The guy that originally got me involved in trading used something VERY similar except on tick charts. I could never bring myself to "step in front of the bus" of taking a pull back. To me it looked like selling a long trend. Of course, I now recognize this as just a pull back in a larger trend but seeing a tick chart of ES go 2-3 handles back to a MA in just a few seconds during the crazy days of early 2009 was to much for my first experience and is what sent me on the holy grail hunt. So to be quite honest, I have a history with something very similar to this which in part contributes to my belief in it.

Funny thing is, every time I find some nuance that turns out to be true, it reminds me of something this trader said back then. He was right about so many things I just couldn't believe it at the time. I wish I had listened and just did what he said. Like Perry, he also said you can get rich trading for 8 ES ticks a day. At the time he was trading in excess of 100 lots and just looking for 8 ticks. Most days he was done trading in the first 30 minutes of the pit session. I had a hard time swallowing that as well. Guess that's the journey so many of us have taken.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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I was exhausted today....so just traded live for a short period.



Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #127 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Tomorrow starts a new chapter in my trading career for me. Last week was full of emotional ups and downs. I finished basically flat. Last two days were good, first three were crap.

From an emotional stand point, I've finally come to terms with my status as a scalper. My personality is suited to a certain type of scalping and so that's what I am.

Scalping also fits with my earliest beliefs about trading. I always looked at the guys that made it big and then gave it back with some feelings of superiority. Like some how if I made it big, I'd never give it back. But I did exactly that in the mortgage biz. I made it bigger than I ever dreamed possible and did not hedge my risks. It was a good trade that went bad with no stops in place. Fool me once, no problem, fool me twice, my bad. Thus taking smaller but more frequent bites from the elephant seems to fit me better. Less chance of having a big win on my hands and then living to regret giving it all back and then some.

Its taken two years of striving against every emotion I've ever had. I've tried to compensate for my inability to hold for large winners by using auto traders, I've tried every indicator I could find that was free, I've been to countless webinars and read countless threads both here and on other forums. All to finally come full circle to the fact that my personality is best suited for several quick trades each day. Further this fits into my systems mentality that says I can quantify a success ratio and predict with some accuracy the future given the outcome of a set of trades in the past and a repetition of a particular set up.

But as the last 3-4 weeks have went by, I found myself drifting more and more toward the idea that I can trade confidently if I know I will be in and out soon. Its the unknown of holding that causes me stress.

As these last few weeks have unfolded, I found a new cause of stress. How to be a scalper using small stops AND the workspace I'd grown accustomed to. It took me three weeks to finally break down and go to a smaller chart. Emotionally I couldn't handle the change. I've been trading with a 12 range chart for almost a year now. I know its patterns pretty well but the stop size didn't justify the targets. So intellectually I knew I needed to go to a smaller one but emotionally it was tough. Since I made the change, I've even used a 4 range to practice on although I don't think I would want to trade it live though, it is pretty fast.

Last week I simplified even more. I don't need three or four moving averages. Two will do if I pay attention to price and what its doing. I also grew more comfortable with taking a trade not at the absolute deepest pullback but at a slightly worse price IF that price was some confirmation of trend continuation. There's a pattern for that.

Next, I've acknowledged that while higher time frames are important to keep in mind, for scalping, they are not the most important factor, instead, one must be aware of what price is doing right now and trade that. In the past, I've treated HTF as a concrete wall, but the truth is, HTF is more like a trampoline. Resistance to be sure, but flexible resistance. Therefore if what is happening right now is in conflict with a HTF, as long as I have room to get my trade done on the LTF with a margin for error, I am ok taking it.

And lastly, I finally came to the realization that trading is not get rich quick but with proper money management, one can get rich slowly, just like every thing else. I do believe it is possible to accelerate the pace beyond other means of getting rich but there is no magic formula that will enable you to print money with your private ATM machine like some trading commercial I saw once.

Instead, I think once I have mastered the art of good money management and confident trading, I can with a high degree of confidence wake up every morning knowing I have the ability to extract from the market each and every day, an amount that is enough to satisfy my families financial needs.

I've been reading Napoleon Hill's Think and Grow Rich this weekend. He states you must have a definite amount in your mind before you begin the quest. Otherwise your subconscious will not know where to take you.....to paraphrase a bit. While the book is a bit dated and has overtones of spirituality to it, I believe in the power of the mind to overcome life's obstacles. And unprofitable trading is just an obstacle to overcome. So I've written down what I would like to be making daily and posted it on the board next to my trading station. When I reach that goal, I will increase that number again and again until I am at 4X my greatest earning year as a mortgage banker.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #128 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Tomorrow starts a new chapter in my trading career for me. Last week was full of emotional ups and downs. I finished basically flat. Last two days were good, first three were crap.

From an emotional stand point, I've finally come to terms with my status as a scalper. My personality is suited to a certain type of scalping and so that's what I am.

Scalping also fits with my earliest beliefs about trading. I always looked at the guys that made it big and then gave it back with some feelings of superiority. Like some how if I made it big, I'd never give it back. But I did exactly that in the mortgage biz. I made it bigger than I ever dreamed possible and did not hedge my risks. It was a good trade that went bad with no stops in place. Fool me once, no problem, fool me twice, my bad. Thus taking smaller but more frequent bites from the elephant seems to fit me better. Less chance of having a big win on my hands and then living to regret giving it all back and then some.

Its taken two years of striving against every emotion I've ever had. I've tried to compensate for my inability to hold for large winners by using auto traders, I've tried every indicator I could find that was free, I've been to countless webinars and read countless threads both here and on other forums. All to finally come full circle to the fact that my personality is best suited for several quick trades each day. Further this fits into my systems mentality that says I can quantify a success ratio and predict with some accuracy the future given the outcome of a set of trades in the past and a repetition of a particular set up.

But as the last 3-4 weeks have went by, I found myself drifting more and more toward the idea that I can trade confidently if I know I will be in and out soon. Its the unknown of holding that causes me stress.

As these last few weeks have unfolded, I found a new cause of stress. How to be a scalper using small stops AND the workspace I'd grown accustomed to. It took me three weeks to finally break down and go to a smaller chart. Emotionally I couldn't handle the change. I've been trading with a 12 range chart for almost a year now. I know its patterns pretty well but the stop size didn't justify the targets. So intellectually I knew I needed to go to a smaller one but emotionally it was tough. Since I made the change, I've even used a 4 range to practice on although I don't think I would want to trade it live though, it is pretty fast.

Last week I simplified even more. I don't need three or four moving averages. Two will do if I pay attention to price and what its doing. I also grew more comfortable with taking a trade not at the absolute deepest pullback but at a slightly worse price IF that price was some confirmation of trend continuation. There's a pattern for that.

Next, I've acknowledged that while higher time frames are important to keep in mind, for scalping, they are not the most important factor, instead, one must be aware of what price is doing right now and trade that. In the past, I've treated HTF as a concrete wall, but the truth is, HTF is more like a trampoline. Resistance to be sure, but flexible resistance. Therefore if what is happening right now is in conflict with a HTF, as long as I have room to get my trade done on the LTF with a margin for error, I am ok taking it.

And lastly, I finally came to the realization that trading is not get rich quick but with proper money management, one can get rich slowly, just like every thing else. I do believe it is possible to accelerate the pace beyond other means of getting rich but there is no magic formula that will enable you to print money with your private ATM machine like some trading commercial I saw once.

Instead, I think once I have mastered the art of good money management and confident trading, I can with a high degree of confidence wake up every morning knowing I have the ability to extract from the market each and every day, an amount that is enough to satisfy my families financial needs.

I've been reading Napoleon Hill's Think and Grow Rich this weekend. He states you must have a definite amount in your mind before you begin the quest. Otherwise your subconscious will not know where to take you.....to paraphrase a bit. While the book is a bit dated and has overtones of spirituality to it, I believe in the power of the mind to overcome life's obstacles. And unprofitable trading is just an obstacle to overcome. So I've written down what I would like to be making daily and posted it on the board next to my trading station. When I reach that goal, I will increase that number again and again until I am at 4X my greatest earning year as a mortgage banker.

PW
You and I have remarkably similar journeys. I know I am a scalper. I finally just accepted that in May. I also found the 4 better Renko CL chart too fast for my ability. I went to a 15 min chart and use that for my entries. I noticed you were using some ideas from Perry, so I looked at his webinar. I basically use his moving averages on a 30 sec chart to give me what price is doing "right now", but my entries are from the 15 min chart. Sort of a reverse use of the higher/shorter time frame than most use.

My biggest issue remains between my ears...self discipline.....

Any way, I have found something I am comfortable with. I hope you do also.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #129 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I did 4 pre-market sim trades. 4 for 4. 4 live market trades. 4 for 4. 3 post trading sim trades. 1 for 3 with 2 BE trades.

No losers today.

Over the weekend I played with two indicators. A double stoch oscillator which as you know, I dislike intensely. I also added back the force index to see if it helped filter out losers. So far, its a work in progress.

Anyway, a good day today.


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 bluemele 
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Please take this with a grain of salt, but you don't need more indicators. You just need to do what you have been doing and get better.

To me, you are 'playing' and I do not mean that as a personal attack, but more of a distraction.

NO INDICATOR is going to help you more than feeling and 'knowing' and using your spidey sense. To me that is most of the value. Maybe I am wrong, but as you said earlier, the magic indicator is what you get when you look into the mirror.

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 PandaWarrior 
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bluemele View Post
Please take this with a grain of salt, but you don't need more indicators. You just need to do what you have been doing and get better.

To me, you are 'playing' and I do not mean that as a personal attack, but more of a distraction.

NO INDICATOR is going to help you more than feeling and 'knowing' and using your spidey sense. To me that is most of the value. Maybe I am wrong, but as you said earlier, the magic indicator is what you get when you look into the mirror.

I do not disagree with you at all. I am playing. To be honest, I only used the extra indicators once today. It was a good use as it kept me out of a trade but that trade is not one I think I would have taken anyway. It gave me an added dose of confirmation to stay out.

But you are correct, the feel for the game and keep doing what I have been doing is the key. I'll ditch the indicators at the end of the week after I have vetted them real time. I think I have a keen enough sense of what is happening to simply never touch them again. This little experiment is really my last attempt to see if one of them helps filter out bad trades better than my own discretion.

Thanks for keeping me honest.

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  #132 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I do not disagree with you at all. I am playing. To be honest, I only used the extra indicators once today. It was a good use as it kept me out of a trade but that trade is not one I think I would have taken anyway. It gave me an added dose of confirmation to stay out.

But you are correct, the feel for the game and keep doing what I have been doing is the key. I'll ditch the indicators at the end of the week after I have vetted them real time. I think I have a keen enough sense of what is happening to simply never touch them again. This little experiment is really my last attempt to see if one of them helps filter out bad trades better than my own discretion.

Thanks for keeping me honest.

I guess I appreciate your honesty to post this.

Seriously though, you are the indicator that I would like to put on my chart.

I think it is good to learn and feel things out as I learn that too, but at the end of the day, I am not sure how useful it all is like you have said.

Thanks for sharing.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Seriously though, you are the indicator that I would like to put on my chart.

Now that would be ugly.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #134 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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+30 live, + 63 sim

Experimenting with sizing today. So far, promising results. More about this later as I get used to it and I can manage it properly over time.


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  #135 (permalink)
 perryg 
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PandaWarrior View Post
+30 live, + 63 sim

Experimenting with sizing today. So far, promising results. More about this later as I get used to it and I can manage it properly over time.


I can confirm that an 8 rangenogap is an excellent chart to trade. You will get longer trades and easier fills.

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  #136 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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A nice day today even though it was pretty choppy.

I am just scalping ten ticks at a time based on price action and feel. Rules are guidelines. There are plenty of opportunities. No need to take every thing.

I am experimenting with position sizing for scalping. Today it worked nicely. I am also experimenting with trailing my stop with the bar. Today that would have been a much better choice. Tomorrow, who knows. I am waiting to see on that.

Anyway, done in the first hour. I spent my daily tick limit and decided it was worth one more. Worse case I was flat for the day. It worked and finished +40 ticks.



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  #137 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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What are you doing on position sizing?

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  #138 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I am NOT happy with my trade selection BUT the experiment I am running using a one bar trail stop kept me from a losing day today.

As a scalper, letting a trade that has ANY profit on it all turn into a full loser is unforgivable. So I decided to trail my stop by the current bar. At first I thought this would be a really bad things. It would get me out of some trades to early. As it turns out, after almost a full week of trading this, it does get me out to early on some trades and just in time on others. The net effect is so far pretty encouraging.

For instance, today, I had terrible trade selection, but almost all the trades went my way at least some. The trail stop kicked in and got me out of the trades with very small losses or tiny profits. I documented manually what would have happened WITHOUT the trail and I would have hit my daily stop after 7 trades but instead, I was able to hang around and after 10 trades end BE less commissions. With the trade selections I had, I am happy with the outcome.

There are also 9 CWS trades listed on the charts besides the 10 live trades I did. For the CWS definition, see the chart. Of these 9 trades, 6 were winners, 2 would have been a profit of 1 & 3 ticks and a loser of 3 ticks for a net of zero before commissions. So $600 before commissions on those 9 trades. These trades were not taken because I was either not looking, decided to pass for some reason or was out of the room.

With regards to the position sizing, I never got past one lot due to the scale up schedule I have. This prevented losers with size.

So I had direction right today, but lost money. I suspect this will happen from time to time as I can have direction correct as I did today and be wrong with the timing and then compound it with not taking all the signals I see. As a scalper, taking as many legit trades is gonna be hugely important. Especially since I understand that each trade is at best 50/50 but taken over time, there are more winners than losers and by keeping the losers small by being aggressive with the stop, I can make decent money.

I'll continue to track the results of the tight trail, but at the moment, I think it will be more of a benefit than a detriment.

My position sizing experiment continues and today it worked perfectly. I traded only one lot and it kept me from a larger losing day.



Cheers.

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  #139 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Lately whenever I click on an image created by Jing, instead of it enlarging, it shrinks down to nothing and a link to techsmiths web site takes its place.

Any ideas?

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  #140 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Error retrieving image, please check URL again (matched: "")

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  #141 (permalink)
 cory 
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Lately whenever I click on an image created by Jing, instead of it enlarging, it shrinks down to nothing and a link to techsmiths web site takes its place.

Any ideas?

click jing, gear symbol and check for update, could be bug just reinstall latest version.

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  #142 (permalink)
 casey44 
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@ PandaWarrior "I am NOT happy with my trade selection BUT the experiment I am running using a one bar trail stop kept me from a losing day today. "

Just a thought, you might find Fattails' Thrust Bars of value for discriminating which bar break to exit on.
Thread >

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  #143 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
click jing, gear symbol and check for update, could be bug just reinstall latest version.

did that and here is the result when I tried to enlarge my last screen shot.


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  #144 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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@ PandaWarrior "I am NOT happy with my trade selection BUT the experiment I am running using a one bar trail stop kept me from a losing day today. "

Just a thought, you might find Fattails' Thrust Bars of value for discriminating which bar break to exit on.
Thread >

Thank you for your help. I appreciate it.

I love the idea of that indicator. But on an 8 range bar, by the time that fires the correct color, I already want to be out of the trade. I think it would work better on a time based chart which I don't trade.

Thanks though, I have a 5 min strat it would help on once I get my account to the place I can handle the stops on a five min chart.

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  #145 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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did that and here is the result when I tried to enlarge my last screen shot.


Turn off ad blocker. As an Elite Member, you can disable ads if you want. If you use an ad blocker, it screws up other things on the site -- like that. BTW, it is not enough to 'disable' ad blocker for futures.io (formerly BMT), if it is installed at all then you'll have this problem. Sorry, there is no work around.

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  #146 (permalink)
 cory 
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PandaWarrior View Post
did that and here is the result when I tried to enlarge my last screen shot.

...

what Mike said also try other browsers.

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  #147 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Big Mike View Post
Turn off ad blocker. As an Elite Member, you can disable ads if you want. If you use an ad blocker, it screws up other things on the site -- like that. BTW, it is not enough to 'disable' ad blocker for futures.io (formerly BMT), if it is installed at all then you'll have this problem. Sorry, there is no work around.

Mike

It was this. I disabled it. Works just fine now.


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  #148 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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It was this. I disabled it. Works just fine now.


Cool. Interesting. Same behavior as with the other thing. I don't use Facebook so didn't know the rest.

And yes as @cory said, this seems to be a Chrome-only thing.

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  #149 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Was able to scale up a bit today. Ended the day at +94 ticks.


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  #150 (permalink)
 vovan348 
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Was able to scale up a bit today. Ended the day at +94 ticks.

You did really good job today!!!

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 bluemele 
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Yes, you did GRRRREEEEEEAAAAAAATTTTT!!!

Did you say you get in at the close of the bar or at the touch or you just kind of feel it turning?

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  #152 (permalink)
 soumi71 
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Good job , Pandawarrior !
great chart too

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  #153 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Yes, you did GRRRREEEEEEAAAAAAATTTTT!!!

Did you say you get in at the close of the bar or at the touch or you just kind of feel it turning?

Close of the bar. I've tried the other way and it seems those always lose. I know I give up a few ticks doing it that way but it works for me.

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  #154 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I had a terrible time finding my stride today. So I just kept taking trades and letting the trail stop protect me, which it did an admirable job of today.

Because I had no feel at all today, I passed on a number of good trades but I simply did not understand what price was telling me today so I waited until I thought I had sure things to trade. Of course this was a crap shoot but the trail stop protected me and I ended the day -2 after 14 round trips.

I also took a break after the first 1.50 hours and did a little better after that. Max lots traded was 1 today.








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 PandaWarrior 
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Lots of trades today. To many to post actually. I've provided the first hour or so.

Net result, +18 ticks. Not so great with trade selection but worse yet, not so great with actually taking the trades. There were far more that I passed on for varied reasons than I actually took.

I realized I can be a lot more aggressive now that I am a scalper with a tight stop. Losers are mostly smaller than the winners so no reason not to trade aggressive.

I added size twice today and had losers both times. Never made it past 2 lots.


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  #156 (permalink)
 kronie 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Lots of trades today. To many to post actually. I've provided the first hour or so.

Net result, +18 ticks. Not so great with trade selection but worse yet, not so great with actually taking the trades. There were far more that I passed on for varied reasons than I actually took.

I realized I can be a lot more aggressive now that I am a scalper with a tight stop. Losers are mostly smaller than the winners so no reason not to trade aggressive.

I added size twice today and had losers both times. Never made it past 2 lots.


what is that "Show News" button along the top row?

just curious

 
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 PandaWarrior 
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kronie View Post
what is that "Show News" button along the top row?

just curious



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 bluemele 
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@PW,

What happens if you hit market on a live CL trade. How many ticks difference are we typically talking? I am guessing you buy/bid, sell/ask or are you buy/ask, sell/bid?

I would think to get filled you may be buy/ask, sell/bid or "Chase" a couple ticks on the ATM?

I think you use CT4 though right? How is that software coming along. Are you still doing the gauntlet thingy with TopStep or whatever?

Just curious. Share only what you feel comfortable and just making conversation and am interested.

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  #159 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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I like the new developments.

I have been leaning to the scalping approach myself. 10-20 tick targets... 8 tick stops.... You?


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  #160 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I've taken a small break from trading this week. I found I was exhausted mentally and physically. The toll taken on my body, my mind and my soul as I have struggled to find out who I am as a trader has been overwhelming. So my daughter is out of school this week and I promised I would spend some time with her and thus a week of rest was produced at a very opportune time.

Just because I need rest does not mean my body clock resets. I've woken up at 4:30AM every morning just as normal and today I decided to get out of bed and go to starbucks where I am currently writing this post from.

It's been a bit since my last post. Mostly because I just haven't felt like posting for one reason or another. Since that last post, I've taken another step toward profitability.

After two years of struggle, I've finally come to terms with the fact I get very tired trying to constantly analysis everything and that due to my technician leanings, I need to really systemize everything. The EMyth is a great book that I read years ago. Some people are entrepreneurs and others are technicians. I have about a 50/50 split between the two. Which means I love to take calculated risks but when things don't work according to plan, I can analyze it to death in an attempt to perfect and worse, I tend to get bored when something I start works really well and I start looking for something else to do. I can start businesses but I hate to run them day to day.

So over the last few weeks, I've created systems as to trade with and to manage my money with as a good technician should and then I did something that I think was a stroke of genius. I decided to trade for a certain amount of time with my profitable system, and then exit the work place. I mean get away from the office completely. Getting bored with a method or system leads to tweaking where none is necessary. But if I am otherwise engaged, my natural tendencies can be circumvented. So 2-3 times a week, I am volunteering at my church. In fact, later to day I am sweeping and mopping some floors. Menial work to be sure but the important thing is that is focused away from myself and onto serving others even if it is in some small way. Other days I am spending with my wife away from the house. She is off Monday and Tuesday's so those days we have plenty of time together. We got to breakfast, ride a bike, etc. And starting in a week or so, I am joining a gym a few blocks from my house and I will begin a lifestyle change to finally make physical fitness part of my life.

Since beginning these changes, I've become comfortable with myself again, more certain about how I trade will bear fruit over time, and perhaps most important, I finally ditched the desire to be right all the time and the overwhelming pressure to get rich quick. I've settled on a methodical long term trading plan that will in time fulfill all my dreams but the near term is simply one foot in front of the other.

I'll never again chase the Holy grail in terms of indicators or methods. What I have works. Why change. I don't need to make 100 ticks a day to fulfill my dreams. So why try. Just grind it out and add size as money management allows.

Next week I think I will be back on sim. I intend to test one final aspect of my method I think will pay dividends but I since what I am testing is a removal of something instead of an addition, I think sim is best.

One last thing. Over the last few weeks, I've come to really accept that 99% of this game is mental and psychological. I am convinced that almost all methods work at some level. But its the patience to wait for the set up, the aggressiveness to take every one that presents and finally the discipline to take profits where the method says to take profits that count. The holy grail is: Patience, decisiveness, and discipline. Discipline manifests in many areas of life but nowhere is it more important than trading. Lack of discipline will blow your account out faster than anything else.

Yesterday I was speaking to a friend and he blew through three days of stops in one day. Psychologically this is very damaging. It will take him 3-5 days to recover from this if he follows his trading plan to the letter over the next few days. Worse, not honoring your daily stop is not being honest with yourself. That stop says I am not trading well or my method is not working to day. By not honoring it, you are in effect saying you are better than the market.

If I paid someone to take trades until a certain amount of profit was achieved or a certain stop was hit each day and they violated those instructions, I would fire them immediately. Not honoring stops is basically grounds for being fired. At that point its just gambling and gambling against a very strong house edge. Just stupid.

Anyway, I've decided to relax, trade my plan and stop putting so much pressure on myself. Just trade the plan and let the results play out how they however they play out. After all, this is supposed to be boring. All this stress and pressure is just drama........

Ok, time to head back to the house and wake my kid up.....she's always a joy in the mornings....one of my favorite times with her is when she's just awakened, curls up in my lap and makes those little cute purring sounds she makes when she's happy......not to many things better than that.

Cheers.

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  #161 (permalink)
 soumi71 
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Great plan Brian , keep up the good work my friend , it will pay off ,
God is always good

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 Surly 
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Hey guys, sorry, that video I posted was not publicly share-able. I asked the admins to remove the post and so I'd just like to ask that if you still have the link, please do not post it publicly. thanks

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  #163 (permalink)
Nasdin94
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Your indicators seems to be a bit lagging by a bar or two.
Do you have any idea/methodology to remove this lag?

 
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 PandaWarrior 
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Your indicators seems to be a bit lagging by a bar or two.
Do you have any idea/methodology to remove this lag?

Thats because I have them set to calculate on bar close "True". I don't need them to be "non lagging". But I think the very definition of indicators means they are lagging.

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 Surly 
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PW - I'm assuming you're using an ATM strategy for your entries? Have you considered adding a trailing stop strategy that kicks in at 11 ticks and is, for instance, a 3 or 4 tick trailing stop? This way you could set an open-ended target and just use the ATM stop strategy to take profits. This way anytime your trade hit +11, you would be sure of booking 7 or 8 ticks but if the market was moving strong and took off, you'd stay in the trade. Something to think about anyway.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Surly View Post
PW - I'm assuming you're using an ATM strategy for your entries? Have you considered adding a trailing stop strategy that kicks in at 11 ticks and is, for instance, a 3 or 4 tick trailing stop? This way you could set an open-ended target and just use the ATM stop strategy to take profits. This way anytime your trade hit +11, you would be sure of booking 7 or 8 ticks but if the market was moving strong and took off, you'd stay in the trade. Something to think about anyway.


Yeah, I've done that. It works a lot of the time. But since I am not looking for home run trades, I just take it off at 10 ticks and let be. I'm finally ok with that. The big runners I miss don't bother me any more. I'm super happy with 10 ticks from a trade. Basically I am just looking for 2-3 of those a day and I am done. I use a super tight trail stop to make sure my losers are smaller than my winners and just look for a few decent entries and let it go at that.

One day I will begin looking at larger trades.....but I think I will just go to a larger bar with the same set up and maybe take 20 ticks at a time. But thats down the road a ways. I am happy where I am at currently. It works and suits my personality.

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 tderrick 
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Yeah, I've done that. It works a lot of the time. But since I am not looking for home run trades, I just take it off at 10 ticks and let be. I'm finally ok with that. The big runners I miss don't bother me any more. I'm super happy with 10 ticks from a trade. Basically I am just looking for 2-3 of those a day and I am done. I use a super tight trail stop to make sure my losers are smaller than my winners and just look for a few decent entries and let it go at that.

One day I will begin looking at larger trades.....but I think I will just go to a larger bar with the same set up and maybe take 20 ticks at a time. But thats down the road a ways. I am happy where I am at currently. It works and suits my personality.


Dude... this is double creepy...

It's as if we going in the same direction on two different roads.

I just caught up with your journal after not reading for a couple of weeks and we are in the same place.

I am, also, looking for 10 tick targets with a tight stop and a minimal ATM. There is something
about the 7-12 area. Price almost always pauses there.

I, also, have eliminated almost all indys. PA is the key. I Place an order before any indy will
even move.


We should catch up on Skype soon.... I have been terribly busy in the studio and my
dad is in the hospital.

... maybe Tuesday or Wednesday AM?


I loved the post about your break week and your daughter. You are a good man.


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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Dude... this is double creepy...

It's as if we going in the same direction on two different roads.

I just caught up with your journal after not reading for a couple of weeks and we are in the same place.

I am, also, looking for 10 tick targets with a tight stop and a minimal ATM. There is something
about the 7-12 area. Price almost always pauses there.

I, also, have eliminated almost all indys. PA is the key. I Place an order before any indy will
even move.


We should catch up on Skype soon.... I have been terribly busy in the studio and my
dad is in the hospital.

... maybe Tuesday or Wednesday AM?


I loved the post about your break week and your daughter. You are a good man.

Hey AJ,

We do need to catch up. I am not free from indies yet. But the ones I do have actually do help me see price action better. They are just a collection of three items that help me stay with longer term trend, see HH/LL and and trade very short term trends within the longer term trend. After all, as a scalper, who needs to capture 100 tick runs and therefore, who needs set ups that produce those runs?

I will be done trading tomorrow around 7AM, maybe we can catch up then? If not then wednesday AM. I'll look for you online then. I'll have around 30 mins or so to talk.

Later.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I am on sim this week. There is some construction around my neighborhood and my internet is intermittent. Turns out the cable company is installing fiber to our area! So I relocated to the starbucks I mentioned last week and am trading sim this week on a wireless connection.

I've decided to test the removal of my tight trail stop.... that is a no go....I'll just live with both the good and the bad a tight trail stop produces.

I am also testing two extra setups besides the money set up I like so much. Today, those two extra entry ideas produced most of the winners.

We will see how they work out the remainder of the week.

Today's results on sim +37 ticks after commissions in about an hour or so of trading and 12 trades. 3 ticks per trade is not that efficient but I don't care about efficiency. I care about net profit at the end of my trading session.

Tomorrow and the remainder of the week, I am looking to do about the same as today. We'll see how it goes.

Cheers

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 Big Mike 
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I am on sim this week. There is some construction around my neighborhood and my internet is intermittent. Turns out the cable company is installing fiber to our area!

Lucky you

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  #171 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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More brilliant sim trades. Seems most of them are! Anyway, I was 6 for 8 today with two break evens. Granted, I got real good signals this morning before prices went into the chop zone. And then the higher time frame charts went into a structure I did not recognize so just decided to quit.

Then I read my friend @AJ s journal about his dad being hit by a car. That did it, I am finished for the day. Time to go home and be with family.

As to the fiber being laid to my house, I was wrong, its just to the neighborhood junction box. Still gonna have copper to the house. Oh well. Better than nothing.

Cheers.

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  #172 (permalink)
 Superdoug3 
Vernon, BC, Canada
 
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would a 13 tick slippage on the SL happen in Live? I was in SIM at the time. I was trying out 8r bars on CL and 2 bars happened fast, not big bars, but fast. Tape was slow up until then, happened at 6:59 PST time.
I know it is only SIM
I am with Transact, I hear that they are good. In Live, would I have a valid complaint, or is that just the way it is in CL? I had a decent profit and should have lost 2 ticks not 15 ticks. I switched back to 144t charts.

 
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 bluemele 
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would a 13 tick slippage on the SL happen in Live? I was in SIM at the time. I was trying out 8r bars on CL and 2 bars happened fast, not big bars, but fast. Tape was slow up until then, happened at 6:59 PST time.
I know it is only SIM
I am with Transact, I hear that they are good. In Live, would I have a valid complaint, or is that just the way it is in CL? I had a decent profit and should have lost 2 ticks not 15 ticks. I switched back to 144t charts.

News. Answers is yes, don't trade around NEWS.

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  #174 (permalink)
 gain247 
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Yes, when trading CL around news, anything can happen. If you think 7am PST was bad, look at 7:30am PST when Oil Inventory Report came out and you would have experienced absolutely terrible slippage since spread was propably tens of ticks. Also, SIM does NOT reflect the same slippage what real live contracts would have got. In Ninja, I mostly get worse slippage in SIM mode than in real $$ trading.

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 Superdoug3 
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for News of CL and 6E and 6A - specifically economic calendars - what do you suggest
1. Trader's hideout suggested Forex factory - no good for CL
2. I can not get futures.io (formerly BMT) > quick links > economic calendar to come up, but when I did, it was just a long list sorted by day and for today Oct 26, no CL reports were on futures.io (formerly BMT) economic calendar
3. there is an NT indicator, Econewsreader, but I use Sierra Chart. Some one in Trader's hideout suggested that this may run stand alone, perhaps it is an exe file.

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 vovan348 
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Superdoug3 View Post
for News of CL and 6E and 6A - specifically economic calendars - what do you suggest
1. Trader's hideout suggested Forex factory - no good for CL
2. I can not get futures.io (formerly BMT) > quick links > economic calendar to come up, but when I did, it was just a long list sorted by day and for today Oct 26, no CL reports were on futures.io (formerly BMT) economic calendar
3. there is an NT indicator, Econewsreader, but I use Sierra Chart. Some one in Trader's hideout suggested that this may run stand alone, perhaps it is an exe file.

Just check Forex Factory before trading. You can see all reports you need.

Oops! You said that it's not good for CL. Haha...
I'm not sure why it's not good and what kind of reports you are looking for. I think you are not gonna find calendar that says "buy here" Sell there".

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  #177 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Superdoug3 View Post
for News of CL and 6E and 6A - specifically economic calendars - what do you suggest
1. Trader's hideout suggested Forex factory - no good for CL
2. I can not get futures.io (formerly BMT) > quick links > economic calendar to come up, but when I did, it was just a long list sorted by day and for today Oct 26, no CL reports were on futures.io (formerly BMT) economic calendar
3. there is an NT indicator, Econewsreader, but I use Sierra Chart. Some one in Trader's hideout suggested that this may run stand alone, perhaps it is an exe file.

All news pretty much effects CL in some way. There is no way to measure the impact from news.

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  #178 (permalink)
 Superdoug3 
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vovan348 View Post
Just check Forex Factory before trading. You can see all reports you need.

Oops! You said that it's not good for CL. Haha...
I'm not sure why it's not good and what kind of reports you are looking for.

Big Mike mentions a Wednesday CL inventory report and someone else mentions a Thursday CL report. I thought that would be the critical ones to watch for. Opps - I see it now on Forex Factory at 7:30 am PST. Yes this should be exactly what I need. I also see what Bluemele means, 7:00 PST was New Home sales in USA

 
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  #179 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I had a tough time getting internet connections this AM at starbucks. Anyway, still on sim. I traded only my set ups with no alternate entry methods and produced a net of 36 ticks on 9 trades.

I also tried lots of other "entry" ideas. All stopped out. I am sticking with the basics for now!

Hopefully I will have internet back at my place tomorrow sometime. Then back to real trading.

Until then....

Cheers

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 PandaWarrior 
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Another day on sim. still waiting on my internet connection to be back up. The cable company said it would be yesterday. No dice. Maybe today.

+11 ticks today after 11 trades. I also traded some time based charts and did pretty well with those. I like time based charts but often times the stop is pretty large. I worked with 5M, 1M as well as 15M and 30M charts. I traded both the 5M and 1M. These plays worked pretty well. I placed stops in the correct areas, took profit where it made sense. Easy enough trades. Emotionally though with real money this would have been really tough. I think I will practice more on the time based charts over the next few weeks after my normal trading is over if I have time.

Cheers.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Another brilliant day on sim. I traded two methods today. My normal method. +35 ticks today. And a time based chart. +45 ticks there. The time based chart has better structure but the entries are easier to see on the range chart.

Gonna be trading both for a while. I like the time chart but still struggling with the stop size. I hope with a week or two of winning I will be able to overcome the emotional issues I have with the larger stops.

My central overriding concern is risk control. I can see entries all over the place but risk prevents most of those. I think I will just take the best set ups on sim, ignore the risk for now and get comfortable with proper stop placement on the time chart. Then I will focus on identifying lower risk trades.

For now though, starbucks is pretty crowded and I need to get out of here.

Cheers.

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 Big Mike 
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PandaWarrior View Post
For now though, starbucks is pretty crowded and I need to get out of here.



Enjoy your weekend with your family.

Mike

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  #183 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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A couple more days on sim here at the corner Starbucks. I've switched from coffee to vanilla robius tea. Starbucks coffee is just to strong for my stomach to handle. I couldn't figure out why my stomach was so upset for a day or so and then I got it.....strong coffee. So over to tea I went and sure enough, stomach issues went away. Wish trading was that easy to figure out!

Anyway, another couple of days on sim and I should be able to go back to normal. The cable company swears they are almost done!

These last couple of weeks have been good for me. The total break week was great and then last week on sim revealed to me how much stress I put on myself. Getting rid of the fear of losing showed me how trading is supposed to be, boring and profitable. I had almost no trouble getting my ticks each day. I know sim and real money are different but the exact same price action played out for my sim trades as it did for someone else's live money trades with the exact same results. So I've decided that I put to much pressure on myself to be right 100% of the time. The sim trades were not 100% right and yet I got my ticks every day. Why not do this live?

Today was another simply brilliant display of trading prowess. +37 ticks on my 8range chart and +52 on the time based chart. Perhaps there was a bit of luck here. The early morning movement was near perfect for my signals and I took them all including a counter trend one that I highly doubt I would take with live money. Of course that one was the sole loser this morning.

I also increased my targets from 10 to 15 ticks and removed the tight trail stop. As long as I am on sim, I am gonna experiment with the removal of the tight stop. I didn't need it at all today but other days it has saved my bacon.

Anyway, I am done real early today. Time to head for the house.

Cheers.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Went trick or treating last night with the kiddo. Walked the neighborhood for three hours. Ouch! My back was killing me. Overslept this morning by an hour. Finally made it to starbucks around 6:00. Missed the open, then had a hard time connecting to the wireless network. Finally got the charts up and running just before 6:30 in time to make a nice trade.

Then a few minutes later, another nice trade and bingo, done for the day. Spent the remainder of the time skyping with friends and reading the news.

+30 ticks today on two trades.

Should have my regular connection back on Thursday afternoon.

Cheers.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Didn't trade last two days. I just didn't feel like driving to starbucks.

Yesterday I got my internet back and I spent a couple hours reconfiguring my network a bit. They gave me new equipment and sure enough it didn't work with my router so that took some time on the phone with the cable company to fix. Turns out it was a bad cable...my bad.

Anyway, stayed up late last night in an effort to force myself to sleep all night long. Lately I have been waking up several times during the night and not really sleeping well afterward. I hate that. So the effort paid off and I overslept.

Made it to the charts about an hour and a half past the open. Traded for 45 minutes, made 30 ticks and quit. Today was my last sim day. I will be back trading for real next week.

Spent some time playing with indicators as I had an overwhelming desire to change stuff around. After that desire was satisfied, I stripped them all away and went back to the same basic chart. I guess its ok to play around with indies as long as you treat them like a sickness, get rid of it as soon as possible!

Anyway, the idea of just relaxing, not putting to much pressure on myself, waiting for the opportune moment as Jack Sparrow puts it, is refreshing. I am not feeling the need to trade, nor am I feeling to impatient while waiting. This is all very new for me and I like it. Another thing I am liking is the slightly larger targets. It helps make up for the losers. I will probably leave it like that next week.

Cheers.

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 tigertrader 
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Gonna be trading both for a while. I like the time chart but still struggling with the stop size. I hope with a week or two of winning I will be able to overcome the emotional issues I have with the larger stops.

My central overriding concern is risk control. I can see entries all over the place but risk prevents most of those. I think I will just take the best set ups on sim, ignore the risk for now and get comfortable with proper stop placement on the time chart. Then I will focus on identifying lower risk trades.


Cheers.

Just my opinion, of course, but I believe that this introspective exercise does more harm to your progress as trader than it does good. While it is helpful for a trader to look at his performance, he can also over-analyze it, which leads to over-thinking and second guessing his every move. You can't avoid getting into trades, because you are afraid to lose, for 2 reasons; missed opportunity to profit, and forfeiting the opportunity to learn from losing. I learn more from my losing trades(days) than I do from my winning trades (days), so I embrace them. Losing trades gives me insight into the market's, volatility, and direction. Think of yourself as a boxer - if you want to be an effective fighter, you can’t be afraid to get hit. In fact, you learn a lot about your opponent’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies, while you are getting hit. If you think about it, losing is one of the best indicators, and is an invaluable tool. So, look to learn from your losing, rather than the explanation you create about losing.

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  #187 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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tigertrader View Post
Just my opinion, of course, but I believe that this introspective exercise does more harm to your progress as trader than it does good. While it is helpful for a trader to look at his performance, he can also over-analyze it, which leads to over-thinking and second guessing his every move. You can't avoid getting into trades, because you are afraid to lose, for 2 reasons; missed opportunity to profit, and forfeiting the opportunity to learn from losing. I learn more from my losing trades(days) than I do from my winning trades (days), so I embrace them. Losing trades gives me insight into the market's, volatility, and direction. Think of yourself as a boxer - if you want to be an effective fighter, you canít be afraid to get hit. In fact, you learn a lot about your opponentís strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies, while you are getting hit. If you think about it, losing is one of the best indicators, and is an invaluable tool. So, look to learn from your losing, rather than the explanation you create about losing.

I agree with you regarding learning more from losing trades. However, seeing how this game is all about self discipline and working within ones emotions, I disagree that introspection is bad. This particular post was about risk and being rational about it.

The larger stop size on a time based chart is outside my emotional tolerance right now, so recognizing that, I don't put myself in the position of seeing a good trade, taking it and then stressing out over the larger stop and potentially doing something stupid with the trade. Instead, I look to practice it, learn from the losers as you suggested and learn to recognize setups that meet my rules but also fit within my risk tolerance. Nothing introspective about that. Just sane trading in my book.

All that being said, this is just an exercise in between my normal trading where this entire discussion is a non issue.

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 tigertrader 
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I agree with you regarding learning more from losing trades. However, seeing how this game is all about self discipline and working within ones emotions, I disagree that introspection is bad. This particular post was about risk and being rational about it.

The larger stop size on a time based chart is outside my emotional tolerance right now, so recognizing that, I don't put myself in the position of seeing a good trade, taking it and then stressing out over the larger stop and potentially doing something stupid with the trade. Instead, I look to practice it, learn from the losers as you suggested and learn to recognize setups that meet my rules but also fit within my risk tolerance. Nothing introspective about that. Just sane trading in my book.

All that being said, this is just an exercise in between my normal trading where this entire discussion is a non issue.

No doubt, introspection is good- too much, is certainly counter-productive.

You want to be able to just pull up, and take the jump shot - without thinking about the proper mechanics of the shot, each time you shoot the ball.

Yes, acquiring market knowledge, methodology proficiency, and risk management skills, is a relatively finite process. Developing mental skills can become an internal struggle and an infinite process, but is the necessary companion to knowledge and skill.

You must be confident, but ego-less; objective, but subjective; mechanical but analytical; focused but relaxed; disciplined but flexible; and patient but decisive.

There are a self-defeating emotions in all of us that blocks our minds and clouds our decisions. Improvement begins with changes in how we choose to think, act and be. Positive changes that will only be realized when we make a decision to learn to let go of the selfish me.

If you are looking for "setups that meet your rules but also fit within your risk tolerance." there is going to have to be a "premium" paid, one way or another. The market will not allow you to lower your risk for free.

There is always a price to be paid when it comes to trading, and whether you realize it or not, you're paying it.

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  #189 (permalink)
 monpere 
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tigertrader View Post
You must be confident, but ego-less; objective, but subjective; mechanical but analytical; focused but relaxed; disciplined but flexible; and patient but decisive.

I think you are describing Mahatma Gandhi !!! No wonder 95% of traders fail


tigertrader View Post
If you are looking for "setups that meet your rules but also fit within your risk tolerance." there is going to have to be a "premium" paid, one way or another. The market will not allow you to lower your risk for free.

You start stalking a trade the moment the market shows you that trade might trigger within the next few bars, or whatever the basis of your method is. At the time of the trigger, if the risk is too large for your psyche, or for your method, you pass! Fewer trading opportunities is the statistical premium you pay. Watching some of those passed trades going on to be huge winners, that's the potential emotional premium you pay.

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  #190 (permalink)
 cory 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Another brilliant day on sim. I traded two methods today. My normal method. +35 ticks today. And a time based chart. +45 ticks there. The time based chart has better structure but the entries are easier to see on the range chart.

Gonna be trading both for a while. I like the time chart but still struggling with the stop size. I hope with a week or two of winning I will be able to overcome the emotional issues I have with the larger stops.

My central overriding concern is risk control. I can see entries all over the place but risk prevents most of those. I think I will just take the best set ups on sim, ignore the risk for now and get comfortable with proper stop placement on the time chart. Then I will focus on identifying lower risk trades.

For now though, starbucks is pretty crowded and I need to get out of here.

Cheers.

you can merge range chart and higher time frame chart (for stop placement) together using FT indie

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  #191 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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tigertrader View Post
No doubt, introspection is good- too much, is certainly counter-productive.

You want to be able to just pull up, and take the jump shot - without thinking about the proper mechanics of the shot, each time you shoot the ball.

Yes, acquiring market knowledge, methodology proficiency, and risk management skills, is a relatively finite process. Developing mental skills can become an internal struggle and an infinite process, but is the necessary companion to knowledge and skill.

You must be confident, but ego-less; objective, but subjective; mechanical but analytical; focused but relaxed; disciplined but flexible; and patient but decisive.

There are a self-defeating emotions in all of us that blocks our minds and clouds our decisions. Improvement begins with changes in how we choose to think, act and be. Positive changes that will only be realized when we make a decision to learn to let go of the selfish me.

If you are looking for "setups that meet your rules but also fit within your risk tolerance." there is going to have to be a "premium" paid, one way or another. The market will not allow you to lower your risk for free.

There is always a price to be paid when it comes to trading, and whether you realize it or not, you're paying it.


I see introspection as the sort of what you do when learning to drive a car. In the beginning, you study everything, question mistakes, second guess yourself, etc. But after a while, driving becomes second nature. Intuitive if you will. I am in the stage between just learning and driving with mostly intuition. Some introspection is good. To much and I over think it. Lately, there has been much less introspection and more realization about just relying on what I know. I will learn more over time but the basics....risk control and patience, I am really beginning to have a firm and almost intuitive grasp on. Not there yet but its much better than even 3 months ago.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #192 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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monpere View Post
I think you are describing Mahatma Gandhi !!! No wonder 95% of traders fail



You start stalking a trade the moment the market shows you that trade might trigger within the next few bars, or whatever the basis of your method is. At the time of the trigger, if the risk is too large for your psyche, or for your method, you pass! Fewer trading opportunities is the statistical premium you pay. Watching some of those passed trades going on to be huge winners, that's the potential emotional premium you pay.

And I have learned to accept that premium as the price I pay for avoiding certain set ups. Those huge winners I miss no longer upset me and no longer send me on the quest for the indie combination that would allow me to enter that trade, hold it for the entire move and exit at exactly the right price. I just accept that trade is not for me and let it go.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #193 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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cory View Post
you can merge range chart and higher time frame chart (for stop placement) together using FT indie

I have looked at this and @MWinfrey has one that does not use indicators. In the past, I dont think I could have used this properly. But today is a different story and I will begin experimenting with it next week on sim after normal trading hours. In concept, its brilliant. It remains to be seen if I can execute using something like this.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 tigertrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
And I have learned to accept that premium as the price I pay for avoiding certain set ups. Those huge winners I miss no longer upset me and no longer send me on the quest for the indie combination that would allow me to enter that trade, hold it for the entire move and exit at exactly the right price. I just accept that trade is not for me and let it go.

If there ever was an indie/s that could deliver what you described, it wouldn't be in the public domain. The truth is, there is nothing out there that hasn't been tried, and traded to death - which is of course, antithetical to the dreams of the majority of futures.io (formerly BMT) members (present company excluded).

That being said, you are adjusting your trading, to your emotions, rather than adjusting your emotions, to your trading; essentially, "comfort-fitting" your trading; possibly at the expense of profitability. Don't you think you should, at the least... change your quote?

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 bluemele 
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tigertrader View Post

That being said, you are adjusting your trading, to your emotions, rather than adjusting your emotions, to your trading; essentially, "comfort-fitting" your trading; possibly at the expense of profitability. Don't you think you should, at the least... change your quote?

That is interesting. I have to reread this a few times to get my head around it.

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  #196 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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bluemele View Post
That is interesting. I have to reread this a few times to get my head around it.

blumele,

Every trader experiences anxiety. Not one day has gone by, that I didnít get ďbutterfliesĒ in my stomach when I woke up in the morning or before I sat down to trade. And there wasn't a day at the CBOT, that my heart didnít race before I walked into the pit. Itís inevitable and unavoidable; because itís instinctual. It is also natural that our psyches want to feel at ease. It is an innate defense mechanism, where our brain will do anything; even allow us to deceive ourselves (cognitive rationalization), to achieve this goal.
Itís very natural then, that we would alter our behavior to compensate for our emotions, rather than control our emotions, to better optimize our behavior. Every trader has a choice between what makes them feel good, or what is actually good for them. You either control your emotions and channel them to your benefit, or allow them to control you.

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  #197 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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tigertrader View Post
If there ever was an indie/s that could deliver what you described, it wouldn't be in the public domain. The truth is, there is nothing out there that hasn't been tried, and traded to death - which is of course, antithetical to the dreams of the majority of futures.io (formerly BMT) members (present company excluded).

That being said, you are adjusting your trading, to your emotions, rather than adjusting your emotions, to your trading; essentially, "comfort-fitting" your trading; possibly at the expense of profitability. Don't you think you should, at the least... change your quote?


I know there is no such thing as the indie I described. But I sure spent a long time looking for it. No more. What did it for me was accepting that most of the time I will would miss the long runners because I didn't have what it took to stay in it that long. I can find those trades, I just couldn't stay in them. Instead, I focused my attention on finding higher probability trades that I can enter and exit fairly quickly. Longer term, I think I will gravitate toward longer trades but for now I am profitable scalping.

After listening to noted trading psychologist Denise Schull who talked about the futility of controlling your emotions and instead trading in a manner that works within the emotional context you are currently in, I began trading to my strengths. Acknowledging those aspects of trading that cause me to stress out and then trading in a manner that avoids those situations allows me the space to think more rationally about each trade instead of yielding to overwhelming emotional drivers that more often than not cause me to do things that are counter intuitive to profitability.

I don't apologize for "comfort fitting" my trading. As long as it produces consistent profit, then who cares what my comfort level is? I would argue in fact that a trader would be more likely to take their signals if they are in their comfort zone. IF the comfort zone is unprofitable, then certainly the idea of trading to a comfort level is poor decision making. But once a person gets to the place where doing the profitable things are comfortable, then why take that trader to task? I have a friend whose profit requirement is ten ticks a day. He is comfortable waiting all day for the ten tick set up that fits his trading system, but more importantly, one that suits his emotional comfort requirements. Whats wrong with that?

This whole discussion started over my emotional issues of trading higher time frames. I don't trade those and am comfortable and profitable trading what I trade. I do want to move to the higher time frames at some point with a portion of my trading capital, but I'll get there the same way I got comfortable where I am currently. Practice and screen time. Practice and screen time produce confidence and confidence will allow me to trade the higher time frames without the emotional issues I mentioned.

That being said, perhaps I used the words "emotional issues" inappropriately. More accurately would have been a statement that went like this: "I can't trade the higher time frames because the risk is to great for my account size". I would be emotional about the stop size because to high of a percentage of my account would be at risk. I could take the trade with no problem. I can see it just fine, but a 30-40 cent stop is to much for me at this point. I would be freaking out every time I initiated a trade and needing it to go my way instantly. That is no way to trade.

As one grows as a trader, then perhaps one can attain the level of emotional control you talk about and have obviously reached.

Anyway, I'm pretty comfortable with my growth, profitability and future growth plan. I've given up the get rich quick mentality that trading breeds. Instead, I've adopted a long term approach to wealth and income creation.

I've also finally started treating this as a business with written goals for personal growth, business growth, knowledge growth, etc. I am taking an in depth psychology class these next two weeks. No trading tips, no new techniques, just the mental stuff. I don't even have many hard and fast rules. The more I write rules, the less those rules seem to play out day to day. Instead, pattern recognition, feel, support and resistance along with risk control, money management and discipline are the keys to the game.

I wish I had gotten where I am a whole lot sooner but I didn't. My journey has been long and arduous as most traders have been. I still feel like I am just a beginner but a beginner with a whole new understanding of who I am as a trader, what my skills are and more importantly, what they are not. This allows me to do some rudimentary planning for the future. I believe I can achieve a certain level of profitability most days, I have rigid risk control that limits my draw down days and a realistic plan for sizing up. This creates a level of confidence I didn't have in the past.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #198 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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That was your best journal entry to date.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I overshot my daily stop buy a tick or two today. To begin with, I had a nice winner and then the tech issues started. Intermittent internet caused my trading platform to freeze multiple times. After the first one, I should have stop but I got it going again, only to see it freeze up again. That should have been the stopping point for sure. Then my kid fell down the stairs. I took some time to comfort her. Fortunately, she was just shaken up. No damage at all.

Anyway, the long and short of it was, I traded when I shouldn't have and paid the price for it. To be fair, I did take 1-2 signals that were legit that failed. No worries there but I also took a few that were against my basic rules. Those failed 100% at full stops. So the mix of winners and losers put me over my limit by a few ticks.

Now to a different subject:

You may have noticed I have stopped posting charts. There is a reason for this. I used to get a few private messages asking me how to trade the charts I've posted. Well to be honest, I took this as a compliment and tried to help. Then it occurred to me that I was the blind leading the blind. I posted the other day in someone elses thread about the indies I used and sure enough, someone asked me to help them with their trading.

Now I am not trying to be mean or unhelpful, but until I am rocking and rolling and making money every day and can honestly say I am a successful trader and by that I mean following not only my trade rules but my personal growth and knowledge plan, I will not be explaining how I trade to anyone that thinks I am further along the road than they are. I just know that for me, I had to figure it out on my own and to really blunt, there's only been a small handful of posts here on futures.io (formerly BMT) that have helped and NONE of them were about systems or methods or indies. The ones that have helped have been about the mental game.

So for those of you that requested my help, please read the psychology forum. Its the place to be in terms of figuring out how to win the trading game. I won't be answering PM's about how I trade the indies I use. The honest truth is that all methods have merit and all methods have drawbacks. Its your personal discipline and patience that wins the day. So my only real advice to struggling traders is:

First figure out who you are as a trader. Are you a scalper, swing trader, position trader, what is your identity?
Second, adopt a method that fits that identity.
Third, figure out your money management
Fourth, don't change anything for 6 months at least.
Fifth, open a live account and then trade one lot.
Lastly, learn the difference between trade management and money management.

Thats it until tomorrow.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #200 (permalink)
 tigertrader 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I overshot my daily stop buy a tick or two today. To begin with, I had a nice winner and then the tech issues started. Intermittent internet caused my trading platform to freeze multiple times. After the first one, I should have stop but I got it going again, only to see it freeze up again. That should have been the stopping point for sure. Then my kid fell down the stairs. I took some time to comfort her. Fortunately, she was just shaken up. No damage at all.

Anyway, the long and short of it was, I traded when I shouldn't have and paid the price for it. To be fair, I did take 1-2 signals that were legit that failed. No worries there but I also took a few that were against my basic rules. Those failed 100% at full stops. So the mix of winners and losers put me over my limit by a few ticks.

Now to a different subject:

You may have noticed I have stopped posting charts. There is a reason for this. I used to get a few private messages asking me how to trade the charts I've posted. Well to be honest, I took this as a compliment and tried to help. Then it occurred to me that I was the blind leading the blind. I posted the other day in someone elses thread about the indies I used and sure enough, someone asked me to help them with their trading.

Now I am not trying to be mean or unhelpful, but until I am rocking and rolling and making money every day and can honestly say I am a successful trader and by that I mean following not only my trade rules but my personal growth and knowledge plan, I will not be explaining how I trade to anyone that thinks I am further along the road than they are. I just know that for me, I had to figure it out on my own and to really blunt, there's only been a small handful of posts here on futures.io (formerly BMT) that have helped and NONE of them were about systems or methods or indies. The ones that have helped have been about the mental game.

So for those of you that requested my help, please read the psychology forum. Its the place to be in terms of figuring out how to win the trading game. I won't be answering PM's about how I trade the indies I use. The honest truth is that all methods have merit and all methods have drawbacks. Its your personal discipline and patience that wins the day. So my only real advice to struggling traders is:

First figure out who you are as a trader. Are you a scalper, swing trader, position trader, what is your identity?
Second, adopt a method that fits that identity.
Third, figure out your money management
Fourth, don't change anything for 6 months at least.
Fifth, open a live account and then trade one lot.
Lastly, learn the difference between trade management and money management.

Thats it until tomorrow.

Good advice. TA and the other stuff, gets you in the door, but MM gets you out the door.

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