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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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For Posterity


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego, California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Felton
Favorite Futures: CL, GC
 
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I have to agree with the two-lot concept. When it works, it does take that pressure off, and there's nothing like having a confidence builder in this game, especially if you're coming off a career of not being profitable and have found something that finally works. I see so much of myself in your journaling, PW. I'd much rather take the risk of that two-lot being stopped out and having it move in my direction and able to book something. Then either it goes or it doesn't -- and chances are -- at least with me lately since I've changed my methods -- that it IS going to go and give you that 25-35 tick winner on top of the 10 or so that the first lot was booked at. At least that's how I roll these days. I've been quitting after one or two profitable trades for the last several weeks and have had only a couple small loser days and I feel I'm making some sort of turn. I am grateful that I have a gig to go to and am not glued to the screen all day.

Anyhow, I appreciate reading your journal(s).

P.S., I'm finding GC to be a pretty good proxy of CL lately, too... FYI ... especially with the volatility of late

Cheers... Hap

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  #13 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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Momma told me there'd be days like this


Well, I hate to journal on days like this. Pure frustration. 3 trades, three stops. Done for the day.

Lets examine something real close. My method is based on the idea I want to trade in trends. The indicator I use is even called "SuperTrend". I've always known it sucks in sideways markets. That is one reason I stopped using it for so long and went on the hunt for method that works in all markets. The trouble is, you often don't know you are in a sideways market until its to late. Or at least that's the way it is for me. I assume others more professional than I can figure it out sooner.

The super trend is great for days when its following through on trend signals. On sideways days, you can get killed before you even know you are in the line of fire.

I think the last trade I took is the one that cheesed me off. As near as I could tell, there was a bull flag developing. I waited until it broke, even waited for a small pull back, took the trade, was stopped out almost instantly and then the next sequence not 2 bars later did exactly what I thought my trade was gonna do. Even to the target price. From my original entry, that was 30 ticks. Enough to get me back BE plus a little bit. Instead, I hit my daily stop on it and then sit in frustration as everything inside me KNEW the next one was gonna go where I thought it would. And yet, I am forced to stand aside due to my daily stop. I was not at my daily stop but had I been stopped out, I would have been over. So no trade. As it turns out, no heat on the trade. Damn and damn again.

Its been a bit since I stopped trading, market continued to drift sideways until finally, its beginning to move downward a bit. Still not a nice trend but enough to make money.

As I've had time to process, it occurs to me I have a built in problem and a built in solution as well as a new task to work on.

The problem: I use the super trend. It sucks in sideways markets. I've mentioned this already.
The Solution: I use the super trend. Its great in a nice trending market.
The new task: 1. Accept there will be days like today and strive to preserve capital as much as possible. 2. Accept the fact that on nice trending days, I need to make a lot of money if possible and not a set amount. Enough to overcome days like this and still make a living. 3. Make sure my trading plan has at its core, the ability to aggressively take advantage of nice trend days. 4. Work on figuring out as soon as possible when it might be a sideways day and tread carefully.

My issues:

1. In order to capitalize on trends, I must take every valid entry. You never know which one will be the one. @ Big Mike once said, 'treat every trade as though it will be the winner you are looking for", or something to that effect. I must give it enough room to really pay me as much as the market will give. This means I must overcome my tendency to take trades off to early and to set targets to small for trend days. This week, I have been much better at holding trades a lot longer. I am literally sitting on my hands once in a trade.

2. Understanding that 2 or 3 days a week could be sideways or at least marginally directional can lead to a hesitation to pull the trigger while I wait for the "trend". I must not succumb to this temptation. The best I can do at this point is take the best trade I can and then let the market determine what I will get out of it.

Therefore, I will NOT resume holy grail hunting. I will not become discouraged due to the stop out today. Instead, I will recognize it as the by product of a method ill suited to sideways drift and go forward with the understanding that tomorrow could well bring a monster day and I can capitalize on it using my method.

Ok, I'm over it now. I understand that some days will suck. The trick is to make sure the days where there is tons of opportunity are taken advantage of so that days like this suck less.

Lastly, I MAY work on a method to trade days like this. But not sure if that is a worthwhile endeavor at this point. An ancient Chinese trader once said, "Man that chase two rabbits loses both". Better to focus on becoming a master of one thing and simply let the rest go.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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Subscribed


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
 
  #15 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
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Larger profit targets

Today I determined to enter my trades and let the market tell me where to get out OR a 50 tick target. First trade was a small loser taken with a method I don't really understand so rather than wait, I just bailed. It would have been a winner but so what. It was not part of the trade plan.

Next trade was after the opening range had been put in. Price was coming out of that range and I shorted it right there on one of my normal patterns. In an effort to allow a runner to make me some money, I took one lot off at 10 ticks and let the other one run for 50. I left 40 ticks on the table but so what. I got what I came for on that trade.

That trade plus a combination of some small losers and other winners had me end the day with 74 ticks. Best day in a while without killing myself.

I also passed on a couple of trades I should have taken but they were driven by intuition instead of methodology. I might take those more often. They are winners a pretty high percentage of time.

I have a new indicator on the chart. Its in evaluation mode only at this time. Its a support and resistance zone indicator and works across multiple time frames although I have not figured out how to do that yet. I'll be emailing the vendor shorting for instructions.

Today is my kid's 9th birthday and so I quit early today to spend it with her.

Cheers.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #16 (permalink)
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Bala, PA, USA
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I have a new indicator on the chart. Its in evaluation mode only at this time. Its a support and resistance zone indicator and works across multiple time frames although I have not figured out how to do that yet. I'll be emailing the vendor shorting for instructions.



Have your tried the free DynamicSRlines inticator here on futures.io (formerly BMT)? Looks to be the same principle.

https://futures.io/local_links.php?action=ratelink&linkid=891&catid=19&lpage=1

 
  #17 (permalink)
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Bala, PA, USA
 
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Cool video. Steve Vai... One of my favorites shredders!

 
  #18 (permalink)
Elite Member
La Jolla, CA
 
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Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
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PandaWarrior View Post

Great video! I'm glad you posted that. Steve Vai is a true Master of his profession and art. Everything he said in this video can be used towards trading. Just insert trader instead of musician and it's extraordinary.

Cheers,
PB

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  #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
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Uncanny...if he didn't have a guitar in his hand, I would have thought he was talking about trading. Ahhh, if I could only trade like Steve Vai or Joe Bonamassa play guitar, then I'd be living in LaJolla and Hawaii instead of Philly, lol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SMjL5u5D40&feature=related

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  #20 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Wall Street
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninja
Favorite Futures: CL, ES
 
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Amazing video! Thanks for sharing

ST

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