The PandaWarrior Chronicles - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The PandaWarrior Chronicles
Updated: Views / Replies:234,087 / 2,157
Created: by PandaWarrior Attachments:213

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Closed Thread
 213  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1931 (permalink)
Banned: User asked to be banned
Calgary, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multiple
Broker/Data: Multiple
Favorite Futures: Multiple
 
Deucalion's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 103 given, 1,207 received


PandaWarrior View Post
Where is the 45 degree trendline? I thought PNF relied on those 45s pretty heavily?

Old Wives tales! Combine old school price action with position sizing and positive expectancy and things like 45deg lines don't hold a candle.
  • Impulse
  • Corrective (contraction)
  • Expansion

Add in position sizing, and it is now, more than enough. Plus I have never understood trend-lines, median lines yes, trend-lines - no. If I added 45deg TD channels (there are a couple here)some things do stand out, but the RR is considerably poorer. Maybe something like this -

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


It doesnt seem too bad, my instinct is to find the stop first, so I use the contraction abc pullback method. Using TD or PNF SR argument I could merit in this -

In fact I think this below is much purer than what I do, but this is very nuanced. It is something I am striving for - not that easy. Lot of very subtle things on this chart
  • Channel support
  • Break up
  • A break down
  • Retrace into measured area (short is here)
  • Stop is edge (inside price, not outside it)
  • RR is staggering (over 15R), if measured in contraction expansion terms

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

The following 4 users say Thank You to Deucalion for this post:
 
  #1932 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


Deucalion View Post
Old Wives tales! Combine old school price action with position sizing and positive expectancy and things like 45deg lines don't hold a candle.
  • Impulse
  • Corrective (contraction)
  • Expansion

Add in position sizing, and it is now, more than enough. Plus I have never understood trend-lines, median lines yes, trend-lines - no. If I added 45deg TD channels (there are a couple here)some things do stand out, but the RR is considerably poorer. Maybe something like this -

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


It doesnt seem too bad, my instinct is to find the stop first, so I use the contraction abc pullback method. Using TD or PNF SR argument I could merit in this -

In fact I think this below is much purer than what I do, but this is very nuanced. It is something I am striving for - not that easy. Lot of very subtle things on this chart
  • Channel support
  • Break up
  • A break down
  • Retrace into measured area (short is here)
  • Stop is edge (inside price, not outside it)
  • RR is staggering (over 15R), if measured in contraction expansion terms

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Makes perfect sense...then scale in on the way down yes????

Also: what about this?
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following user says Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1933 (permalink)
Banned: User asked to be banned
Calgary, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multiple
Broker/Data: Multiple
Favorite Futures: Multiple
 
Deucalion's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 103 given, 1,207 received



PandaWarrior View Post
Makes perfect sense...then scale in on the way down yes????

Also: what about this?
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Perhaps, But I am terrible at scaling, I realize. How would you do that? I can see the merit of scaling totally, but the way I do it now is simpler, in out, and try not to interfere with the original RR. If I can do what Private Banker with Core-Satellite, it makes sense. But its much harder than I used to think

Scaling in only makes sense if you entered a very smal position initially. Otherwise, NO. As you can see both cases I have presented go all in, One entry, One target.

I am not sure how scaling would go in the above example. Give it a try. I have some vague ideas, not I don't trust them enough to give me additional RR.

I give you an example of what I think is ideal scaling in. and it is below -

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

I am very aware this goes against adding when price goes in your favour, but I have never understood how RR improves in that manner. Perhaps someone will indulge me

PS - I don't any weight a a single Fib by oneself, that's ridiculous, but the whole band is different, or some other price behaviour, or high volume bar. Generally something else in addition. But that is exactly why that initial trade idea was not taken by me. It was too flimsy

PPS - All ideas revolve around either AIAO od SIAO, I completely reject any AISO. AISO is the abhorrent and unacceptable to me. It is reversing RR. I don't care how many do it and how good they are with it. SISO is also same as AISO


Last edited by Deucalion; December 11th, 2013 at 06:47 PM. Reason: Added comment
The following 2 users say Thank You to Deucalion for this post:
 
  #1934 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


Deucalion View Post
Perhaps, But I am terrible at scaling, I realize. How would you do that? I can see the merit of scaling totally, but the way I do it now is simpler, in out, and try not to interfere with the original RR. If I can do what Private Banker with Core-Satellite, it makes sense. But its much harder than I used to think

Scaling in only makes sense if you entered a very smal position initially. Otherwise, NO. As you can see both cases I have presented go all in, One entry, One target.

I am not sure how scaling would go in the above example. Give it a try. I have some vague ideas, not I don't trust them enough to give me additional RR.

I give you an example of what I think is ideal scaling in. and it is below -

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

I am very aware this goes against adding when price goes in your favour, but I have never understood how RR improves in that manner. Perhaps someone will indulge me

PS - I don't any weight a a single Fib by oneself, that's ridiculous, but the whole band is different, or some other price behaviour, or high volume bar. Generally something else in addition. But that is exactly why that initial trade idea was not taken by me. It was too flimsy

PPS - All ideas revolve around either AIAO od SIAO, I completely reject any AISO. AISO is the abhorrent and unacceptable to me. It is reversing RR. I don't care how many do it and how good they are with it. SISO is also same as AISO

I agree, AIAO or SIAO is the only way to go. Mathematically AIAO is superior to all. However, scaling in does have an advantage. You get to test the waters so to speak with a small position. If the market proves your right, you add on the bulk of your position in either 1/3rds or you add most of it as soon as you can have a risk free trade and then the remainder sometime after that. So it might be 1/5, 3/5 and then 1/5. At that point, if you lose on any of it, its the small bit at nearer the end. So it falls into the idea of lose small win big. You are most vunerable at the beginning so have the smallest lot on. Don't add to it if it goes against you UNLESS you plan on that and are willing to lose with a full position on. The method you showed on your chart ensures you lose with a full position on, however each add loses less, still its a full bleed if you are wrong.

Scaling in is all about incremental profit if you are right and being small if you are wrong.

Initial thoughts on this: Keep in mind I am still working on this myself. Take it with a grain of salt.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1935 (permalink)
Banned: User asked to be banned
Calgary, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multiple
Broker/Data: Multiple
Favorite Futures: Multiple
 
Deucalion's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 103 given, 1,207 received


PandaWarrior View Post
I agree, AIAO or SIAO is the only way to go. Mathematically AIAO is superior to all. However, scaling in does have an advantage. You get to test the waters so to speak with a small position. If the market proves your right, you add on the bulk of your position in either 1/3rds or you add most of it as soon as you can have a risk free trade and then the remainder sometime after that. So it might be 1/5, 3/5 and then 1/5. At that point, if you lose on any of it, its the small bit at nearer the end. So it falls into the idea of lose small win big. You are most vunerable at the beginning so have the smallest lot on. Don't add to it if it goes against you UNLESS you plan on that and are willing to lose with a full position on. The method you showed on your chart ensures you lose with a full position on, however each add loses less, still its a full bleed if you are wrong.

Scaling in is all about incremental profit if you are right and being small if you are wrong.

Initial thoughts on this: Keep in mind I am still working on this myself. Take it with a grain of salt.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Indeed, well put, logical. If you add this way you are increasing the RR. The one thing you have to be careful of is what happen if shit goes to hell.

Theoretically, you have 3/4 entries, what about your stops. For example - such a trade should have active trade management (something I don't, not in FX). I set it and leave it.

If not, for active entries - you cannot subject new entries to old stops, so as you add, the stops have to get tighter other wise you would subject the whole position to greater risk. Perhaps something like this -

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

For day trading I think this is really delicate and has great potential. As I don't particularly watch my entries and exits on this account, I simply enter AIAO, either it works or not. Sometimes the markets stops me out and gives me a new entry. AS long I maintain 2R - 3R or higher, this is generally not an issue. I can leave these positions on over days and let them work out.

The following user says Thank You to Deucalion for this post:
 
  #1936 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received


Deucalion View Post
Indeed, well put, logical. If you add this way you are increasing the RR. The one thing you have to be careful of is what happen if shit goes to hell.

Theoretically, you have 3/4 entries, what about your stops. For example - such a trade should have active trade management (something I don't, not in FX). I set it and leave it.

If not, for active entries - you cannot subject new entries to old stops, so as you add, the stops have to get tighter other wise you would subject the whole position to greater risk. Perhaps something like this -

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

For day trading I think this is really delicate and has great potential. As I don't particularly watch my entries and exits on this account, I simply enter AIAO, either it works or not. Sometimes the markets stops me out and gives me a new entry. AS long I maintain 2R - 3R or higher, this is generally not an issue. I can leave these positions on over days and let them work out.

You have nailed it...the stop must tighten, otherwise your risk goes off the charts. If done correctly, everything after the second entry should be risk free. I think the way you've laid it out works perfectly.

I've found that adding on is more difficult that I would have otherwise thought in daytrading...for me I want the secondary entry to produce a risk free trade once the stop is moved up to BE or somewhere close and that can be difficult to do if its a range day....it depends on how much your expect the instrument to move and where the pull backs are.

However, on forex, it makes brilliant sense. Especially if your time frames are longer than a five minute chart....I use 4 hour charts and once it gets into a trend, there are usually 2-5 opportunities to add on safely over the course of several days or even weeks. The profit potential is huge.

Here is a recent forex trade I did. Its in micros so don't get excited. I chart on 6E so I can monitor it in Ninja and execute on the web platform of my forex broker. Its not identical but close enough for what I need. It illustrates how this might work.....I went in with 25% of what I wanted to ultimately have on, added 50% at the second opportunity and 25% at the break out pull back. I exited the whole thing about 5 bars ago. It had reached the structural target which is not on this chart. All in all, a very nice win.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1937 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

I currently dont have the chops to do this real time but here is a possibility from today....this would be tough to execute I think so its presented more as a case study than as something one could actually do. Perhaps a very skilled trader could pull this off in real time. I know I could not on an intra day time frame. Still its interesting to see whats possible.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 3 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1938 (permalink)
Banned: User asked to be banned
Calgary, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multiple
Broker/Data: Multiple
Favorite Futures: Multiple
 
Deucalion's Avatar
 
Posts: 430 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 103 given, 1,207 received


PandaWarrior View Post
You have nailed it...the stop must tighten, otherwise your risk goes off the charts. If done correctly, everything after the second entry should be risk free. I think the way you've laid it out works perfectly.

I've found that adding on is more difficult that I would have otherwise thought in daytrading...for me I want the secondary entry to produce a risk free trade once the stop is moved up to BE or somewhere close and that can be difficult to do if its a range day....it depends on how much your expect the instrument to move and where the pull backs are.

However, on forex, it makes brilliant sense. Especially if your time frames are longer than a five minute chart....I use 4 hour charts and once it gets into a trend, there are usually 2-5 opportunities to add on safely over the course of several days or even weeks. The profit potential is huge.

Here is a recent forex trade I did. Its in micros so don't get excited. I chart on 6E so I can monitor it in Ninja and execute on the web platform of my forex broker. Its not identical but close enough for what I need. It illustrates how this might work.....I went in with 25% of what I wanted to ultimately have on, added 50% at the second opportunity and 25% at the break out pull back. I exited the whole thing about 5 bars ago. It had reached the structural target which is not on this chart. All in all, a very nice win.

Beautiful understanding of PA. Interesting, I had a recent EU long a while ago as well, I wasn't sure what the correct impulse was, but watch the symmetry either way, it turned out beautiful. Unfortunately it was done with a smaller position size, the problem is not just mashing risk but not allowing FX trends to run. That is a crime is FX. I am convinced that position sizing is what allows me to use simple AIAO entries and play simple impulse-corrective expansion moves to max effect.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Al-right, enough for now.

The following 4 users say Thank You to Deucalion for this post:
 
  #1939 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

Finals day

I have two finals today so out of here as fast as possible.

A slow day again. I had a short bias coming into the day. But got back to BE +5 on the long side but honestly, I was really nervous on the long. I trailed out real fast as it started to stall. Good move as the short side was where it was today for me.

Waited for opening range to fail to the upside by one tick and then right out the downside followed by some stalling and then a break short.

I've tightened up my targets to 30 ticks for the time being. It seems like thats the number now with the narrower ranges we are experiencing. Especially since I am only trading about 2 hours or so, this seems relatively safe for now.

I've been thinking about the holidays and my trading schedule. I've decided I will stop trading real money on the 20th. Maybe not even sim until after the first of the year....not sure yet. Regardless, the 20th is my last "work" day of the year. Kinda looking forward to it.

My NQ sim trade went almost to target today and reversed hard. Stopped me out at BE but I was to busy to manage it today

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 7 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
 
  #1940 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received

TGIF


I missed the easy trade pre market. Waited and waited....it was slow...pre-holiday blues maybe????Who knows. I am trading Monday, if the action is the same as today, I might be done early for the year.

I did one trade outside my plan....action was slow, OR was FINALLY being "broken" only it wasn't....I forced and paid for it with 10 ticks.

Next I got a break above the previous swing high with a close, so I took it. The up bars went fast, as soon as I entered, it went back into slow dead crawl downward. ARG.....This is NOT the CL I signed up to trade. Daily ranges of 120 ticks does not make the trading easy....you have to be almost perfect to get any real ticks at all.

One reason I like CL has been its forgiving nature, you could be wrong about the overall direction and still make money. Not lately. You need to be right about direction, entry locations as well as exit locations. All must be executed with near perfection. Even though I've made money this week, its been tough.....I remember 2 Decembers ago, price was stuck in an ADR of about 75 ticks for several weeks. It didn't break out until around January 10th or so. If I remember right, it had something to do with the Arab spring.

Anyway, glad the week is over. With finals, shopping, trading and taking care of the family, I'm pretty tired.

Rest day I think....nothing really pressing to do today...yeah me!!!!!!!

I left money on the table today in NQ....mistake, keep the targets intact. Its almost always the best policy. I even missed the best trade of the day...short after the open but so what, after all, you only need one good trade per day.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 5 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:

Closed Thread



futures io > > > The PandaWarrior Chronicles

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:30 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-12 in 0.21 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.145.16.43