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The PandaWarrior Chronicles
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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

  #1901 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
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xelaar View Post
I have spent a day programming my strategy in Ninja to full automation, well my most mechanical strategy. So I did a lot of back tests and some real time tests. From back tests I could see that going for an outlier indeed can squeeze a bit more profit per car but also increases drawdowns a lot as well as number of subsequent losers. From I see if you can get smaller profit per car with less drawdown and higher win rate, then look if increasing size will be more beneficial than going for larger runners with less size. It was certainly the case for me. Thus said I still look for more win than losers and larger win than losers.

When I say outlier, I mean something that is less than the average leg for your instrument. CL moves in 35-70 tick ranges most of the time, based on how I trade, its around 50. So I use 50 ticks as my target....I get a 50 tick trade every 7-8 trades...most of my trades are trailed out at 40 or 38 or 42 or 30...something less than 50. That being said, of the ones I trailed out, 95% of them I should have left alone. It seems the best trade management is no management at all.

I do not mean looking for that one day where it runs 300 ticks and I get 275 of them. Thats not how I currently trade, although I can see a day when that is part of my plan to some degree.

Have a great weekend.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1902 (permalink)
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prague, czech republic
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
When I say outlier, I mean something that is less than the average leg for your instrument. CL moves in 35-70 tick ranges most of the time, based on how I trade, its around 50. So I use 50 ticks as my target....I get a 50 tick trade every 7-8 trades...most of my trades are trailed out at 40 or 38 or 42 or 30...something less than 50. That being said, of the ones I trailed out, 95% of them I should have left alone. It seems the best trade management is no management at all.

I do not mean looking for that one day where it runs 300 ticks and I get 275 of them. Thats not how I currently trade, although I can see a day when that is part of my plan to some degree.

Have a great weekend.

Brian, I used this term is exactly same meaning. I do lean more and more in a same direction as you do, and consider the tape now just an attempt to get a good timing, but no the actual reason to trade. Thus said, I value smoother equity curve even more than absolute returns, and therefore I can see a value in scaling out at typical rotation distance. However, the next step would be to add to the trade, by scaling in again if setup confirms again and I have my first part closed already. We had some pretty good discussions with @podski about this approach.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #1903 (permalink)
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For example, the first one is piss poor high risk low reward setup. The second one is misdirection, and an outlier

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  #1904 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
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Slightly off the topic of this thread, but, on your recommendation (in the budfox thread), I watched the Kung Fu Panda movie last night. You're right, it's an excellent movie, and the relevance for trading, and anything else, is very clear.

"There is no secret ingredient." Huh. Wish I'd known that years ago.

Now I know why the name of your thread is a good choice Thanks for the experience.

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; November 29th, 2013 at 07:41 AM.
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  #1905 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Slightly off the topic of this thread, but, on your recommendation (in the budfox thread), I watched the Kung Fu Panda movie last night. You're right, it's an excellent movie, and the relevance for trading, and anything else, is very clear.

"There is no secret ingredient." Huh. Wish I'd known that years ago.

Now I know why the name of your thread is a good choice Thanks for the experience.

Bob.

Lol, that's great, glad you enjoyed it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
  #1906 (permalink)
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Nashville, Tennessee
 
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PandaWarrior View Post

Typically, I am only interested in the initial breakout. Once in, I want to add to the position, not exit and re-enter on every leg. This is something I did for a long time and could never make it work. I never chase an entry, if you miss it, you miss it. And limit orders mean you will miss a fair number of good trades. So I just click In or use a stop market order.

Brian


So let's see if I have this right.

I'm going to try some BO / momentum entries this coming week, so let's set up some rules.

The key seems to be GET IN when the criteria is met that price is moving out.

Now, when the inevitable heat comes from price edge traders like me, do you add at some point
on this PB leg back into consolidation or is this a "wait and see" period to see if price truly continues?

I realize it is a fine line between scaling into a loser and adding to a position at this point.

Would the trade only be invalid if it attempts to break out the other side?

When is your "I give" point ? A set amount of ticks? A PA landmark? A volume Landmark?

... or just plain wrong, as it leaves you in the other direction ?


grazie


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #1907 (permalink)
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There's a pretty good example a few posts back in my thread.

I never add to a trade that is red. It has to be in profit. And I try to only add if the combined entry can be break even. This is gonna vary depending on what the structure looks like.

But I think it might be easier if we just talked on Skype. I can show you easier than I can type.

Send me an email or PM. We can set up some time. Today is good for me as I'm not trading or anything else for that matter.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1908 (permalink)
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PandaWarrior View Post
There's a pretty good example a few posts back in my thread.

I never add to a trade that is red. It has to be in profit. And I try to only add if the combined entry can be break even. This is gonna vary depending on what the structure looks like.

But I think it might be easier if we just talked on Skype. I can show you easier than I can type.

Send me an email or PM. We can set up some time. Today is good for me as I'm not trading or anything else for that matter.


OK, buddy... I'm just heading out the door to get some auto parts and will look for you when I return


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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  #1909 (permalink)
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Holland, Michigan
 
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@PandaWarrior

Hello Brian. I was wondering if you would share what ADR indicator you are using.

Thank you,

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #1910 (permalink)
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trs3042 View Post
@PandaWarrior

Hello Brian. I was wondering if you would share what ADR indicator you are using.

Thank you,

Rick

Its @Fat Tails volatility indie with most of it set to false or transparent. I only wanted the ADR component.

I tried to find the zip file on my machine but can't seem to find it so here is the updated version from the man himself.

https://futures.io/download/ninjatrader-7/indicators/750-download.html?view

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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