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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #1801 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Been in this trade for 2 weeks now....this pic is of a 6E sim trade I have monitoring the FXCM trade I have on.....I've taken profit once already, then added back on and I added one more yesterday.....I am mirroring this trade in the forex account. The FXCM is trading at $1 per pip as I have no forex experience and I wanted to begin small.....so the FXCM account is up $700 or so, the entries are not 100% the same but they're pretty close....My stop and target are the same though....

The current break even price represents my blended entries as I added and subtracted lots to the trade as opportunity presented itself. Currently I have $900 of closed profit on the futures trade and $250 on the forex trade booked with the trade open as shown. If I closed it now, that would be $5000+ for a two week trade with almost no work.

Initial RR on this was around 5:1....currently its a no risk trade so the worst I can do is stop out at the current stop location. I am thinking I'll get another pull back of sorts, its currently at the break down point from the previous bear trend and then try to break higher from there....If it doesn't break after the anticipated pull back, I'll trail out somewhere between where its at now and the current stop.....if that happens, I think I'll end up with around $2000+/- on this trade for a net of $3000 for three weeks of "work" and about $600 in the forex account.

This is basically a thought experiment and if I really like it, I'll add more pairs, look for opportunity across all currency pairs and size risk appropriately.

On another more serious note, its been enlightening to see how its ebbed and flowed while watching a much higher time frame than I'm used to.....and the idea of allowing it room to breath and not getting excited if it pulls back.....it does help that I stay logged out of the forex account and keep the futures screen minimized at all times....and there's far less volatility in this instrument than CL...so I suppose the parallels aren't quite the same but overall, its been a valuable lesson so far.



Then I have an article on crude oil for those interested.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1802 (permalink)
pavman
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Nice trading! You've got the patience for 6E - have a look at the dollar index. I stopped trading correlations along time ago but obvious inverse relationship moves a lot like CL but much slower and can give you the heads up for 6E entry/exits.

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  #1803 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Awesome vacation to sunny SoCal with the wife and kiddo....time on the beach is good for the soul.....took the kiddo to see 1D for her bday...OMG....that was to much.....funniest thing I've seen in awhile...oh well, she liked it and I have high frequency noise damage to my ears from all the preteen and teenage girls shrieking for three hours......sheesh....

Back to the grind tomorrow although I have to say by day three I was looking forward to being back to work....its a sickness I know....

I think by next summer I want to have a goal of spending the entire summer in SD....we love that city....no reason not to I guess.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1804 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Updating my 6E trade....this is the SIM tracking of my micro forex account. I track it in Ninja so I don't have to open the FXCM website all the time. I know I can get FXCM in ninja but for now have chosen to do it the hard way...mostly to keep me from micro managing the trade.

I closed out the previous trade prior to leaving on vacation...both because I didn't want to manage it and because I got a legit exit signal on the trade....then prices washed out to the high and low, put a squeeze play on and broke to the high side....my entry wasn't perfect on the break out but close enough......

I am long a single lot in sim, 100 lots live....I think thats .10 per pip..not really sure. Still playing with getting the forex sizing worked out...and I think I will not be adding to this trade any further. If I get a SMALL pullback that does not mess up the structure, I'll add one more perhaps and 100 more in the live account....but thats it until it reaches target......


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1805 (permalink)
 josh 
Georgia, US
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I am long a single lot in sim, 100 lots live....I think thats .10 per pip..not really sure.

From my fx days, IIRC, a standard lot is 100K units, which is $10 per euro pip (0.0001). A mini lot is 10K, at $1 per pip, a micro is 1K, at $0.10 per pip, so if indeed you are trading a 100 lot, it is $0.01 per pip, though my guess is you are actually trading a micro 1K lot as it's usually the smallest unit tradeable, however, I have seen some who allow trading smaller.

Good luck with the trade and good to see you buddy!

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  #1806 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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josh View Post
From my fx days, IIRC, a standard lot is 100K units, which is $10 per euro pip (0.0001). A mini lot is 10K, at $1 per pip, a micro is 1K, at $0.10 per pip, so if indeed you are trading a 100 lot, it is $0.01 per pip, though my guess is you are actually trading a micro 1K lot as it's usually the smallest unit tradeable, however, I have seen some who allow trading smaller.

Good luck with the trade and good to see you buddy!

I double checked...its the mini lot...$1 per pip....which is what I wanted.

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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1807 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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85 ticks which brings the 4 week total to $4300 or so...after closing out the previous trade...although I consider this to be a single trade sequence instead of multiple set ups....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1808 (permalink)
 trs3042 
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PandaWarrior View Post


85 ticks which brings the 4 week total to $4300 or so...after closing out the previous trade...although I consider this to be a single trade sequence instead of multiple set ups....


Nice work Brian!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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  #1809 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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85 ticks which brings the 4 week total to $4300 or so...after closing out the previous trade...although I consider this to be a single trade sequence instead of multiple set ups....


What I liked about this trade was this:

1. I had subpar entries...none of them were perfect...due to timing on my part....sometimes I was not awake when the ideal entries happened and I could have waited and gotten better entries but I didn't.

2. My stops were HUGE....at least for me....

3. It took a long time forcing me to wait to be paid.

Lessons learned. Its possible to make money even when things aren't perfect. You just have to have a plan to deal with those things....and in my case, that plan was wrapped up in one short phrase....sit on hands....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1810 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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PandaWarrior View Post
What I liked about this trade was this:

1. I had subpar entries...none of them were perfect...due to timing on my part....sometimes I was not awake when the ideal entries happened and I could have waited and gotten better entries but I didn't.

2. My stops were HUGE....at least for me....

3. It took a long time forcing me to wait to be paid.

Lessons learned. Its possible to make money even when things aren't perfect. You just have to have a plan to deal with those things....and in my case, that plan was wrapped up in one short phrase....sit on hands....


 
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  #1811 (permalink)
 TraderJ 
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Congrats PandaWarrior, nicely done.

Less time at the screen than your shorter time frame method?
More risk than your shorter time frame method for that number of days?
More reward than your shorter time frame method for that number of days?

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  #1812 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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TraderJ View Post
Congrats PandaWarrior, nicely done.

Less time at the screen than your shorter time frame method?
More risk than your shorter time frame method for that number of days?
More reward than your shorter time frame method for that number of days?

Less time
More risk
More reward....

It's all relative. The reward was commiserate with the risk.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1813 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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Great stuff, keep on good work!

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #1814 (permalink)
 iqgod 
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Does one have to trade on smaller timeframes first to learn all the ropes before 'graduating' or moving on confidently to the higher timeframes such as daily or weekly?

I have learnt everything about trading when I tend to scalp or intraday swing. I have tried holding for many days and have found it great but it was easier because I was applying all the learnings I had from lower timeframes.

Sure someone can start on daily and continue profitably on daily (as James16 of the pinbar fame advocates) but I would like to know veteran opinions.

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 PandaWarrior 
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iqgod View Post
Does one have to trade on smaller timeframes first to learn all the ropes before 'graduating' or moving on confidently to the higher timeframes such as daily or weekly?

I have learnt everything about trading when I tend to scalp or intraday swing. I have tried holding for many days and have found it great but it was easier because I was applying all the learnings I had from lower timeframes.

Sure someone can start on daily and continue profitably on daily (as James16 of the pinbar fame advocates) but I would like to know veteran opinions.

I'm not a veteran but I suspect most people would be better of starting on higher time frames and learning patience first. Then if they want, move to an intraday format and apply the patience lessons to shorter duration trades.

Seems like most day traders have an instant gratification mentality that most assuredly limits their profit potential.

Mini or micro forex is the perfect place to learn those skills without taking to much risk. But I also know human nature. Not a single person that reads this post will heed this advice. I didn't in the beginning so why would anyone else? The drive for or the need to earn bigger money will overcome the wisdom of learning how to trade correctly.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1816 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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iqgod View Post
Does one have to trade on smaller timeframes first to learn all the ropes before 'graduating' or moving on confidently to the higher timeframes such as daily or weekly?

I have learnt everything about trading when I tend to scalp or intraday swing. I have tried holding for many days and have found it great but it was easier because I was applying all the learnings I had from lower timeframes.

Sure someone can start on daily and continue profitably on daily (as James16 of the pinbar fame advocates) but I would like to know veteran opinions.

The best trader I know, and the one with the longest experience, told me it does not matter. "If you trade a 1m, then trade that chart, if you trade a 15m, then trade that chart..." He says he will take a trade and not care what the timeframe is, or even what the instrument is. It all looks the same to him. The completion of a trade includes an entry and an exit. Don't expect a 30m chart target on a 5m chart, or a 5m chart hold time on a 30m chart entry.

 
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 Superdoug3 
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PandaWarrior View Post
.took the kiddo to see 1D for her bday...OMG....that was to much.....funniest thing I've seen in awhile...oh well, she liked it and I have high frequency noise damage to my ears from all the preteen and teenage girls shrieking for three hours......sheesh....

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 PandaWarrior 
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To funny.....we were in the nosebleed section at Cricket Wireless outdoor theater in San Diego....there were no seats, only blankets on grass, so I had my zen meditation pose going....middle aged man sitting cross legged on a blanket in the dark at a 1D concert......

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 PandaWarrior 
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Krugman a “Political Hack,” Making Things Up As He Goes

by Victor Sperandeo


“Economics is the science of means to be applied for the attainment of ends chosen.”
The above quote is from Ludwig Von Mises, a founder of the Austrian School of Economics, a school of thought which mirrors my beliefs. It implies that “how” you solve problems (what political philosophy is to be used) is an (idealogical) choice, as well as an economic one, and “how you attain a goal,” demonstrates what your political beliefs are.
Politics is a branch of philosophy of “how people in society should live.” This is achieved through:
– Capitalism, or freedom: a social system based on individual rights including property rights which is all privately owned. It assumes free markets without government influence. To say “laissez-faire” Capitalism is redundant. What regulates markets from the free market is the courts and the police when fraud is involved.
– Socialism, or a great amount of Government control of the economy, and ownership of the means of production;
– Facsism, believes in the Nation over the individual, and “control” of the means of production, but not in owning them.
– Marxism (Communism) believes in no individual or property rights, and are led by group decision, e.g., the politburo, but generally led by a strong statist, e.g., Mao Zedong or Joe Stalin;
– Dictatorship: led by one with no liberty or rights to the people, e.g., A Hitler-type.
The fact that Paul Krugman calls himself an economist is a facade because he really is a political hack for a progressive (read Socialist) future for the US. His view of “how” to solve economic problems is by taking away your liberty, by government controlling every aspect of your life, and confiscating your earnings and capital by force. He cares virtually nothing of creating huge debts, and deficits. In the long run Mr. Krugman is promoting, in effect, (hyper)inflation or bankrupting the US. The debt is not an issue to Mr. Krugman, “because we owe it to ourselves” ?!
Logically then, he must believe someone who buys a government bond with his own capital, which the government then spends on an anonymous person (to buy support for power). But then when the government can’t pay it back with the same purchasing power, it’s ok – as inflation does not matter because the government really owns all the money / capital anyway – not the individual – as the tax system has shown. At which point he says “we owe it (the debt) to ourselves ” he means as a “Collective society” not a Capitalist one, concluding the fact people have no property rights.
I call this theft and moral plunder. It concludes in passing the debt to future generations to be dealt with and I my opinion is the highest form of immorality.
An example, and perhaps the dumbest financial idea Mr. Krugman (or anyone in history) has pushed is saying the government should mint a 1 oz platinum coin, and put a fiat value of $1 trillion on it. Today it would be intrinsically worth about $1691.30, not $1,000,000,000,000.00 !! This coin would be deposited by the Treasury into a FED account, and the Treasury would draw on it to spend federal reserve notes (fiat paper) as it desired. His ending comment in a New York Times editorial pushing the idea was. “Mint the darn coin”. (!)
This is truly an amazing fantasy of how to create paper money, using this ridiculous “Madoff like scheme” is the height of how government, with the help of a Noble Prize winner, can destroy a country. When you give government, by way of the Fed, a monopoly over the discretion to control the amount of money and the level (cost) of credit (a Karl Marx recommendation) you end up with ideas like a $1 trillion coin. The Fed passed on this obvious scam of an idea, as they would rather print paper the old fashioned way- using QE’s, which is far more difficult for the public to understand!
Lastly a simple contrast in beliefs is the “lack of demand” that is never mentioned on the differences between Keynes and Von Mises is as follows: A Keynesian would say that currently the lack of “aggregate demand” is due to Bush financial crises, and government must spend to make up for it. An Austrian would say the problem is caused by “Originally Interest” (OI) which is driven by Obama policies which are pushing people to hoard cash, i.e., postpone buying. The definition of OI is the ratio of value assigned present goods versus future goods, or what each person or entity decides to save or spend based of their view of the future.
The Paul Krugman view of deficits (and debt) is we need more of it, and it’s not a concern.
Moreover the direct problem is not the debt, as it will never be paid, but postponed or inflated away. It’s the indirect problem of the interest that has to be paid. Interest rates are 22% of their last 52-year average (approximately 1.4% today). To show how impossible the debt has become to service, if you employed all the temporary workers and unemployed workers and paid them 30% above the median income or $65,000 a year, and all those 23 million people paid $10,000 each in taxes, or $230 billion, the deficit should be reduced?
However, if interest rates rise 1.5% on $16.5 trillion “stated” debt the $230 billion becomes $0 net revenue to the government. If interest rates rise to the average 52-year rate or 6.17%, the budget deficits added by just interest payments rises by $1 trillion without any other spending ! This problem can be understood by a high school senior who is proficient in math, but obviously not a Yale, MIT, nor graduate and a London School of Economics and Princeton Professor who is a Nobel Prize winner.
The fact that Mr. Krugman uses as his proof that the markets are accepting his “debt doesn’t matter” premise for the last several years with low interest rates, and no crises, (which is due to fear of Gov’ts fiscal polices) is not the point — as when one gets cancer you don’t die right away.
The fact is all this printing and borrowing is an unsustainable cancer.
For example if debts don’t matter then why did 1920 Germany develop into hyperinflation? The velocity of money was virtually identical to US today or 1.5 versus 1.6 in the US (M2), today. Germany had created a huge debt in fighting WW I, and after the end of the war on November 11, 1918, with reparations, they could not pay the debt and the interest. They began to lose the ability to borrow and raise taxes. Taxes were so high that even “under penalty of death” did not matter people would not pay. However they also had a printing press (unlike Greece today).
In 1920 Germany began to print Reichmarks to pay the debt and interest. The velocity of the money rose to 12 in 3 years. Stated differently, the German money supply turned over once a month in 1923 instead of 1.5 times a year in 1920. The bell rang and people lost confidence in bonds and the currency. Today the US is like 1920 Germany. Printing (fiat money) via QE’s and debt are icreasing at “increasing rates” while bonds and the dollar are generally declining, and taxes although being increased, while (to date) tax collections have declined as a percent of GDP even though the recovery started in June 2009.
Today the US Fed buys between 70-85% of all the debt floated by the US since QE2. My speculation is that as early as 2014, reality will provide the evidence Mr. Krugman needs to show him 2+2 is always 4. The debt will turn into 100% printed money, i.e., total monatizing of the debt, and thereby hyperinflation will begin to occur in the US. The freedom based of the US “Constitutional Republic” will begin to accelerate to its end as we know it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1820 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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So I switched to the IchiCloud indie for my forex trades. Combined that with a trend line and OBV and I have the makings of a potential long term forex trading method....this is the second in what I think will work out to 3-5 trades before I really get serious about trading forex. this trade is still sim and is only tracking the FXCM account for monitoring purposes. I keep the FXCM account closed so I won't screw with it much while in the trade.

This is the initial impulse move on the break out. I have my target more or less where the move up really got started at in the thought process that it would return there at some point.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1821 (permalink)
 josh 
Georgia, US
 
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Good trade so far PW. At first, when looking at it, I thought that maybe this little trend line (blue in the picture) will be a problem. Like it or not, trend lines are used by people and they will buy blindly. But after looking at the larger picture, I think there's a very good shot at 3170, a good shot at 3090, and if you want to be a real baller, 2800. That is where the demand really originated from, and that green highlighted area has found buyers back in November, March, May, and July. The 2700s really represent unfair lows. The major hurdle IMO will be near where your target is now, around 3090, but if it goes through there, there is a great shot for 2800. Not suggesting you change anything of course, just presenting another viewpoint for your consideration.


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  #1822 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Thought I'd post a CL trade. I haven't done one in a while. I'm finished early so thought I'd get one in before I have to take off and do other things.

My CL trade was just a short off higher time frame resistance and to be quite fair, trading in the higher time frame noise. But I am an intraday CL trader so the HTF noise is my playground for the most part.

It was a 50 tick trade.....nice way to start the day.



My 6E trade i've been holding now for a few days.....

Its been going sideways now for a number of bars.....so looking for it to either break down the rest of the way or reverse in which case I'll probably take it off......only my second forex trade and so not entirely sure how this could or should play out. At this point, there is no reason to exit.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1823 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Wow, two days in a row!

First short and the second long are suspect. First one the TL wasn't in yet....I was eyeballing it....and the second long was more of a hope and pray thing....which I cut short as soon as it my brain overrode my emotions.

Have to cut the trading day short today. Got things to do.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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I've trailed my stop to 2XR and will leave it there until it either stops me out or hits target. I moved the stop here once price looked like it was not going to close below the little line I have drawn. Once it did, I was pretty sure it would make my target.

As I write this, its +201 and I've trailed stop to just behind the current bar. No sense in giving back more now that its getting close. I didn't anticipate it moving so fast toward my target. So the previous stop location was there so I could take off and not worry. But since its moved during my screen time, I am trailing.




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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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took my kid to school, got back and saw inventory was just finishing up, structure was good so took it. Closed it out as it stalled near the target which was yesterday's high.






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 PandaWarrior 
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I closed the 6E trade last night via a trailing stop while I slept....+165 ticks....not a forex home run but a real nice triple.....I'm reasonably happy about it....I still wonder if I took it off to soon but only way to find out sometime next week...



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 PandaWarrior 
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I traded ES for the first time today in forever



And crude...


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 PandaWarrior 
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This morning I had a very odd emotion come through me. I recognized it even as it happened. I've debated today about posting about it here on futures.io (formerly BMT). I'm not to sure about the worth it may have to any particular individual but here goes.

There were several things that led up to this emotion/thought today so I will attempt to abbreviate these things so as to spare the reader any unnecessary boredom.

1. Over the summer I lost motivation to post everyday. I did eventually start a blog on blogspot mostly for myself and a couple of friends that follow along occasionally. I wondered why this was so.

2. I watched another trader devolve into what I considered borderline insanity chasing the trading dream.

3. I watched another trader have a wonderful July and August only to blow up in the last few days and I saw how his mental and emotional state spiraled downward with his PnL.

4. A couple of days ago I wondered out loud to myself why I felt it needful to continue to post publicly. I honestly questioned myself as to why. Today the answer appeared. More on that later.

5. I've been considering becoming a vendor. I even have the website up and running. I've asked myself why I want this several times. Today I have the answer....more in a bit.

6. I started posting again a few days ago. Why I had no idea. I just felt like it.....today I have a different answer.

Ok, the aha moment. Today while I was watching a couple of traders have really bad days over the last few days and weeks; in wondering why I quit posting or why I started up again, wondering why I wanted to be a vendor, etc....I suddenly had the answer.

It was this. I had an overwhelming need for validation. I needed the opinion of others to justify my worth as a trader. This is a lonely business. No one pats you on the back, no one screams at you if you screw up (other than your spouse). The truth is, if you build houses, you have the satisfaction of a job well done, if you make your sales quota, the company sends you on a trip. If you write a book, people buy it and you become rich.

But in trading, no one does this. You rack your ticks and you walk away. Thats it. No ego stroking by your peers. No attaboys from the boss. No trips, no Rolexes, no nothing. Just silence.

And that is the reason I have been posting. That is the reason I wanted to be a vendor. Its because through these outlets, I can get people to validate me. Even if that meant random people who for the most part use an avatar and a screen name.....

The second this realization hit me....a strong almost physical sensation went through my entire body.....one of steely resolve. Resolve that I've only experienced once before. The last time I experienced this sensation was right before I began the drive to become one of the countries top mortgage originators. This resolve does not require validation from anyone, not even from myself. Why? Because who I am as a trader or as a mortgage originator is not who I am as a person.

Instead life is about faith, family and friends. Everything else is secondary at best.

So what changes will I be making based on this? Well for one, I'll post if and when I feel like it. I will keep my private blog up as I've found it to be quite valuable to me. I'll probably abandon my vendor idea. There's really no need for it. I like teaching and I like coaching....but its not necessary any longer. So I guess I'll take it as it comes...if it comes at all. The people I'm coaching now have come to me....and only one is paying, his choice.

More importantly, I can honestly say I've made trades in the past based on how it might look on the forum...not recently but it has happened. This will never happen again. I don't really care what other people think...good bad or indifferent. I finally feel free to trade the way I want to without worrying about what others say or think. Its a good feeling....

I'm rambling now but its because this was and is a rambling free flowing emotion....so I'll hang it up for now and if the muse hits to write further about this later on I will.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Big Mike 
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Nice post Brian. It always feels good when you can unearth something as profound as that.

To me, it's a social thing. Why have friends? The same answers lead to "why belong to a community", which futures.io (formerly BMT) is. It's a support network and a way to share ideas and have discussions with like minded people. Everyone has a friend, or maybe a friend of a friend, that is crazy. futures.io (formerly BMT) has it's crazies too. It's part of life The funny thing is, some of them probably think we are the weirdo's.... and thus, a market was made!



Mike

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 PandaWarrior 
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I closed the 6E trade last night via a trailing stop while I slept....+165 ticks....not a forex home run but a real nice triple.....I'm reasonably happy about it....I still wonder if I took it off to soon but only way to find out sometime next week...



I don't have a chart right now but looks like I took it off perfectly....at least in terms of a trail stop. We'll see what happens going forward but I'm happy with the trade.

If I can get a couple more like that in 6E, I'll expand to maybe 3-5 other pairs and see how that goes. The idea being to spread risk around and look for opportunity wherever it exists. All while sizing appropriately.

The more I think about swing trading forex the more I like it. Mostly due to the ability to size correctly. Unless you have a sizable account, futures is tough to size right. Forex would allow me to sleep at night with correct position size.

So based on this, what is the consensus as to where to open a real account. Currently I have a very small account at FXCM. Mostly so I could use ninja trader with it. But I found this to be somewhat cumbersome as I couldn't get the data to work properly. So I'm using their web platform now. I refuse to use MT4 so anyplace where that's the only option is out. I'm open to suggestions.

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 Deucalion 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I don't have a chart right now but looks like I took it off perfectly....at least in terms of a trail stop. We'll see what happens going forward but I'm happy with the trade.

If I can get a couple more like that in 6E, I'll expand to maybe 3-5 other pairs and see how that goes. The idea being to spread risk around and look for opportunity wherever it exists. All while sizing appropriately.

The more I think about swing trading forex the more I like it. Mostly due to the ability to size correctly. Unless you have a sizable account, futures is tough to size right. Forex would allow me to sleep at night with correct position size.

So based on this, what is the consensus as to where to open a real account. Currently I have a very small account at FXCM. Mostly so I could use ninja trader with it. But I found this to be somewhat cumbersome as I couldn't get the data to work properly. So I'm using their web platform now. I refuse to use MT4 so anyplace where that's the only option is out. I'm open to suggestions.

cTrader
Currenex & Currenex Viking
PFSoft ProTrader
DukasCopy SWFX

or, if you have more than 100K -
Just pick up the phone and call either Dukascopy or one of the big Pool providers (like LMAX or Knight Hotspot, BT Prime, Sucden FXetc)

Forget US brokers (the horrible FIFO rule is something archaic and must be avoided). Once you can hedge, you do not need huge margins, this allows one to truly hedge positions.

Next, if not US based (I refuse US brokers now for FX). It must either be FCA or ASIC regulated (which is either UK or Aussie based).

Then look for how good their liquidity pool is.

Once you reject MT4, you automatically open yourself to DMA and STP types - some of which are below



PS - I should mention, I use naked charts with FX positions, so I don't need fancy indicators (although one could use NT with IQ FX feed or eSignal FX feed for charting, if so required).

 
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 PandaWarrior 
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Deucalion View Post
cTrader
Currenex & Currenex Viking
PFSoft ProTrader
DukasCopy SWFX

or, if you have more than 100K -
Just pick up the phone and call either Dukascopy or one of the big Pool providers (like LMAX or Knight Hotspot, BT Prime, Sucden FXetc)

Forget US brokers (the horrible FIFO rule is something archaic and must be avoided). Once you can hedge, not only do you not need small margins, but also well and truly position yourself as a hedge fund.

Next, if not US based (I refuse US brokers now for FX). It must either be FCA or ASIC regulated (which is either UK or Aussie based).

Then look for how good their liquidity pool is.

Once you reject MT4, you automatically open yourself to DMA and STP types - some of which are below


Sandy, the spreadsheet is perfect. I'll spend some time looking at the ones on the sheet. I'd already looked at a couple you suggested and chose one from those but with these new ones, I'll have more to look at. I was hoping to get more input from the group but this is probably more than enough.

Thanks so much.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Positive Expectation, Scenario Gaming, and Moving Beyond Certainty | Mercenary Trader

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 Big Mike 
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Speaking of expectancy, hope to see everyone in Tuesday's webinar with FT71. The topic is exactly that --- "The Holy Grail" as he calls it, Expectancy and Habits.

Mike

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 rassi 
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You will be able to get into LMAX with ALOT less than 100k.

Or might be worth looking at Armada markets, part of LMAX with very low acc and margin sizes. Preffered by scalpers due to speed and comms.


ARMADA MARKETS | Best ECN Broker | Forex Trading | Partner of LMAX


HTH.



Deucalion View Post
cTrader
Currenex & Currenex Viking
PFSoft ProTrader
DukasCopy SWFX

or, if you have more than 100K -
Just pick up the phone and call either Dukascopy or one of the big Pool providers (like LMAX or Knight Hotspot, BT Prime, Sucden FXetc)

Forget US brokers (the horrible FIFO rule is something archaic and must be avoided). Once you can hedge, you do not need huge margins, this allows one to truly hedge positions.

Next, if not US based (I refuse US brokers now for FX). It must either be FCA or ASIC regulated (which is either UK or Aussie based).

Then look for how good their liquidity pool is.

Once you reject MT4, you automatically open yourself to DMA and STP types - some of which are below



PS - I should mention, I use naked charts with FX positions, so I don't need fancy indicators (although one could use NT with IQ FX feed or eSignal FX feed for charting, if so required).


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 PandaWarrior 
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I should note that most non US based brokers will not accept US based clients. Only brokers with a US based subsidiary will accept US clients. With all the associated baggage.

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 Big Mike 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I should note that most non US based brokers will not accept US based clients. Only brokers with a US based subsidiary will accept US clients. With all the associated baggage.

Time to move!

Mike

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 podski 
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...validation ...

I'm rambling now but its because this was and is a rambling free flowing emotion....so I'll hang it up for now and if the muse hits to write further about this later on I will.

Panda Warrior - this validation thing is all around us.

It's why facebook works, why David Weis writes books (not to get rich I think) and why lots of people on futures.io (formerly BMT) seek out trading buddies. It was a big factor as to why futures.io (formerly BMT) was started I guess and is certainly a factor as to why so many people freely give assistance, time, expertise, programmes tips and opinions (bitter or otherwise). This is true of even some of the more prolific posters.

I'm glad that you are not going to fight it as it's just part of who we all are and will certainly help round you off.

Trading is a bit lonely too. You can be out to dinner with a pal and tell him / her of the "psychological difficulties" or that your day to day world is quite small ... and they might nod or acknowledge it but only other traders know.

Experienced and inexperienced traders (I know this) can all benefit by communicating and thinking out loud about what it is that we are doing.

What you call validation Herzberg called recognition.

Have a good one !

p

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 PandaWarrior 
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podski View Post
Panda Warrior - this validation thing is all around us.

It's why facebook works, why David Weis writes books (not to get rich I think) and why lots of people on futures.io (formerly BMT) seek out trading buddies. It was a big factor as to why futures.io (formerly BMT) was started I guess and is certainly a factor as to why so many people freely give assistance, time, expertise, programmes tips and opinions (bitter or otherwise). This is true of even some of the more prolific posters.

I'm glad that you are not going to fight it as it's just part of who we all are and will certainly help round you off.

Trading is a bit lonely too. You can be out to dinner with a pal and tell him / her of the "psychological difficulties" or that your day to day world is quite small ... and they might nod or acknowledge it but only other traders know.

Experienced and inexperienced traders (I know this) can all benefit by communicating and thinking out loud about what it is that we are doing.

What you call validation Herzberg called recognition.

Have a good one !

p

I recognize the importance of recognition/validation. The difference is it seems like its not near as important any longer. I think it was Abraham Maslow that talked about self actualization. And as traders, we must be able to do that. While Maslow was talking about self actualization from a slightly different perspective, I think it still applies here. In other words, I can't effectively trade until how I trade, why I trade, etc are in line with my goals and my true inner self....and knowing I no longer need others to validate me is a huge step in that direction.

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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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Last day I trade ES I think. I found it really hard to focus on two day trading charts at the same time. More power to those who can. Swing trading FX while trading CL intra day is much easier than day trading two instruments.

Initially I had trouble deciding where to get in even though I had a good idea we were heading down to the 106.75 area based on the 240M chart. But price was having trouble getting any lower than the break area....so I took a probe trade with a ten tick stop mostly based on fear of missing out....that didn't go anywhere and got stopped out...but as it got closer to the open, price started to have some conviction to the downside follow through and so I got in and initially it didn't do much....but after a few minutes, sure enough it started to really get traction and made it all the way to my original target plus a bit more....although not enough to justify having had larger targets.

I followed my pre market routine of drawing the trend lines and the S/R lines before I clicked the mouse to enter. I followed my trade management rule of moving my stop at the predetermined level to go BE and I locked in a few ticks once I had a swing of sorts to hide the stop behind.



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 FXCM Brad 
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I don't have a chart right now but looks like I took it off perfectly....at least in terms of a trail stop. We'll see what happens going forward but I'm happy with the trade.

If I can get a couple more like that in 6E, I'll expand to maybe 3-5 other pairs and see how that goes. The idea being to spread risk around and look for opportunity wherever it exists. All while sizing appropriately.

The more I think about swing trading forex the more I like it. Mostly due to the ability to size correctly. Unless you have a sizable account, futures is tough to size right. Forex would allow me to sleep at night with correct position size.

So based on this, what is the consensus as to where to open a real account. Currently I have a very small account at FXCM. Mostly so I could use ninja trader with it. But I found this to be somewhat cumbersome as I couldn't get the data to work properly. So I'm using their web platform now. I refuse to use MT4 so anyplace where that's the only option is out. I'm open to suggestions.

Hello PandaWarrior!

I would like to help with the data issue mentioned when using NT with FXCM. Can you tell me what issue you ran into along the way?

I ask because we’ve been working to repair data issues and believe that the issue has been resolved.

Thank you!

Brad

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 PandaWarrior 
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FXCM Brad View Post
Hello PandaWarrior!

I would like to help with the data issue mentioned when using NT with FXCM. Can you tell me what issue you ran into along the way?

I ask because we’ve been working to repair data issues and believe that the issue has been resolved.

Thank you!

Brad

It would only display about 3 days of data, no matter what I did

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 FXCM Brad 
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Hi PandaWarrior!

A few things I’d suggest to check:
1. Make sure you’re on the latest build of NT
2. Make sure you’ve selected NinjaTrader servers for the data source
3. Make sure you’ve properly setup the connection

Beyond that, consider:
1. Setting up a brand new connection
2. Consider removing NT completely, reinstalling the latest build and create a new connection

Would you be able to try some of these and let me know if it’s fixed?

The setup now is that historic data is accessed from NT servers, so it seems safe to assume that NT is able to get data from its own servers in a reliable and timely manner.

If none of these solutions work, I would like to put you in touch with our level 2 technical team to help further.

Thanks again for the post!

Brad

If you have any questions about the products or services provided by FXCM, please send me a Private Message or use the BMT "Ask Me Anything" thread
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 PandaWarrior 
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FXCM Brad View Post
Hi PandaWarrior!

A few things I’d suggest to check:
1. Make sure you’re on the latest build of NT
2. Make sure you’ve selected NinjaTrader servers for the data source
3. Make sure you’ve properly setup the connection

Beyond that, consider:
1. Setting up a brand new connection
2. Consider removing NT completely, reinstalling the latest build and create a new connection

Would you be able to try some of these and let me know if it’s fixed?

The setup now is that historic data is accessed from NT servers, so it seems safe to assume that NT is able to get data from its own servers in a reliable and timely manner.

If none of these solutions work, I would like to put you in touch with our level 2 technical team to help further.

Thanks again for the post!

Brad

Thank you Brad,

I'll look into these solutions. I've been busy with other projects and havent had time to really pursue this.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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This isn't something I ever expected to see: And its profitable as well....go figure.


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 Jason Rogers 
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Thank you Brad,

I'll look into these solutions. I've been busy with other projects and havent had time to really pursue this.

Hi PandaWarrior,

Just wanted to follow up on the discussion you had earlier with my colleague Brad. FXCM has completed a full rollout of NinjaTrader, and I wanted to check that the problems you mentioned earlier with loading charts have since been resolved.

Also, I wanted to make sure you were aware that FXCM will reimburse your license fee for NinjaTrader, if your account has a starting balance of at least $5,000 and you continue to place 500k round turn trades per month. If you already have a single broker NinjaTrader license and simply want to add FXCM, contact us at admin@fxcm.com for special instructions.

Jason

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 PandaWarrior 
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Hospitals are terrible places to be....unless you are sick. And even then, they are uncomfortable, smelly, restrictive and the worst possible thing about hospitals....you have absolutely ZERO control over how things go and when they go.

My recent stay for double pneumonia along with some heart issues lasted 6 days. During this time, I did not sleep the first three days. The A-fib was simply to disruptive to allow much sleep. 36 hours of no sleep combined with only about 3 hours per night the previous 4 nights due to flu like symptoms combined to make me really grumpy, really tired and really sick of being sick. However, I knew I had an opportunity for some personal growth and so worked at developing my "hospital skills".

The skill involved in a successful hospital stay is the art of patience. The skill of being comfortable with uncertainty. Both about your illness and about the hospital routine. After a while, certain things become more or less expected at certain times of the day. Food delivery, vitals check, shift changes, etc. But the important things like test results, doctor consultations, arrival of pain meds at the precise moment you need them, these things are filled with uncertainty.

This trip through, I determined I would not be an impatient butt head. Instead, I spent much of my time sitting in the chair thinking and waiting. Almost no TV and no books. I read one magazine....an old Bloomberg from March. I checked email once or twice the entire time and Facebook once or twice. For the most part, it was a time of silence and contemplation.

I have to say, it bordered on being pleasant. Not vacation pleasant but a pleasant growth experience for me. I really learned how to sit in silence and not freak out. How to pace my expectations, how to enjoy the little things like food delivery and the interactions with the nurses at vitals check. How to listen to my body when its trying to tell me something important. All good things. Its hard to explain but I'm kinda glad I went through this. I learned so much.

All these skills are important as a trader. The art of patience, being comfortable with uncertainty, enjoying the small things, how to listen to the market when its trying to tell you something....all skills I learned in the hospital.....interesting.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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 trs3042 
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@PandaWarrior,

Hello Brian. Good to see you posting again. Hope your feeling better and things are ok.

Take care,

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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 tderrick 
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Holy Cow, brotha !! ... what a drag. I have been blessed with great health to this point in my life.

I am living my mortality vicariously through you, my friend. I'm counting my blessings and taking heed that
you are not promised tomorrow. We must live each day as it will be your last.

I'm glad you are well and that you have worked on your Zen Quotient. The universe is a Grand place and
when you are in circumstances such as yours, I bet you can feel it just a bit more.

We need to catch up soon on the old Skyper ..... I have been neglecting family and friends, being totally
engrossed in my trading routine.

Thanks for the wake up call

aj

ps

I can't believe you didn't sneak a little trading rig in there!!


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 PandaWarrior 
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Holy Cow, brotha !! ... what a drag. I have been blessed with great health to this point in my life.

I am living my mortality vicariously through you, my friend. I'm counting my blessings and taking heed that
you are not promised tomorrow. We must live each day as it will be your last.

I'm glad you are well and that you have worked on your Zen Quotient. The universe is a Grand place and
when you are in circumstances such as yours, I bet you can feel it just a bit more.

We need to catch up soon on the old Skyper ..... I have been neglecting family and friends, being totally
engrossed in my trading routine.

Thanks for the wake up call

aj

ps

I can't believe you didn't sneak a little trading rig in there!!

You bet, i've totally ignored some of those relationships as well.....send me an email or text on skype and we can hook up.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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 Patrick S 
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PandaWarrior View Post


BRAVO showing your entries and exits.
Your transparency in showing your winners as well as the losers is Huge.
Sometimes us new guys think we are the only ones who ever have any losers and the guys who have been trading for 5-10 years clean up the market every day.
Great Job!

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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 PandaWarrior 
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Patrick S View Post
BRAVO showing your entries and exits.
Your transparency in showing your winners as well as the losers is Huge.
Sometimes us new guys think we are the only ones who ever have any losers and the guys who have been trading for 5-10 years clean up the market every day.
Great Job!

Well I've always shown the losers when I post a chart....and I've only been trading seriously for around 3 years...so I'm still learning like everyone else.....which I suspect i will be until the day I stop trading.....

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 PandaWarrior 
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After I quit today, price did a full on sell off. In times past I would be really upset with myself for missing this kind of thing. Then one day I realized I was making a choice about when to stop trading based on my experience, my temperament and the amount of time I was willing to sit in front of the charts.

Truth is, the longer I sit there the worse my decision making becomes. If I win in the early morning, chances are I'll give it back later on. Not because I'm stupid but its just experience that says look for good movement in the early morning and stop. If a big move happens during my trading hours, chances are it will consolidate for a good long while an I'm not interested in trading that.

So now when I see something like what happened today, I recognize it as simply a trade off I make. Less time at the screens sometimes means missed opportunity. It also means that many days I get to keep what I made because the rest of the day is sideways crap.

So while I would have liked to made some extra coin today, I'm content with the results. I traded my plan to the letter and that is a successful day.

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 tderrick 
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After I quit today, price did a full on sell off. In times past I would be really upset with myself for missing this kind of thing. Then one day I realized I was making a choice about when to stop trading based on my experience, my temperament and the amount of time I was willing to sit in front of the charts.

Truth is, the longer I sit there the worse my decision making becomes. If I win in the early morning, chances are I'll give it back later on. Not because I'm stupid but its just experience that says look for good movement in the early morning and stop. If a big move happens during my trading hours, chances are it will consolidate for a good long while an I'm not interested in trading that.

So now when I see something like what happened today, I recognize it as simply a trade off I make. Less time at the screens sometimes means missed opportunity. It also means that many days I get to keep what I made because the rest of the day is sideways crap.

So while I would have liked to made some extra coin today, I'm content with the results. I traded my plan to the letter and that is a successful day.


The Fear / Regret of missing out has been my nemesis from the beginning.

Fear will make you chase and Regret will make you throw your computer out the window

As for market condition, I have learned to play small ball around the London open. Open it up as New York
approaches and then clamp down for the afternoon.

The sideways market you speak of is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel for me as price is "contained". I trade
across the range until price breaks.

I find it much more difficult to enter a trend..... funny how we all learn differently

I hope all is well, my friend

AJ


As


AJ
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 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
The Fear / Regret of missing out has been my nemesis from the beginning.

Fear will make you chase and Regret will make you throw your computer out the window

As for market condition, I have learned to play small ball around the London open. Open it up as New York
approaches and then clamp down for the afternoon.

The sideways market you speak of is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel for me as price is "contained". I trade
across the range until price breaks.

I find it much more difficult to enter a trend..... funny how we all learn differently

I hope all is well, my friend

AJ


As

The coveted range play.....i really should learn how to do that effectively.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Thought I'd post a chart or two today. I'm done fairly early so I have time to post one before the madness starts.

Anyway, I wanted to be short from the daily chart and hopefully off a deep pull back. I took a long counter trend trade for +19 back to resistance and where I shorted. This trade failed and to be fair, was not a trade I normally take. After the strong move up, I got the deep pull back along with some strong selling right at that level. I took the first down bar and held for the top of the opening range. It took a bit but worked out just right.




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 researcher247 
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That sir, was an excellent trade setup/plan/trade management/execution.

Enjoy the Halloween festivities w/your family later today!

peace/hedvig

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 PandaWarrior 
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Not much time for commentary today.....But here's how it played out today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 trs3042 
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Not much time for commentary today.....But here's how it played out today.


NICE WORK!!!

Have a GREAT weekend!!!

Rick

"If you're going to panic during a trade............. panic early."
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 PandaWarrior 
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Often times, its the losing weeks that offer the best lessons. This week I struggled with holding trades early in the week. Then I took a day off, which turned out to be the best trading day of week for my style and time frames. Then today, my style was completely ill suited for what was presented today.

So how is this a great lesson?

Its simple really. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, I had plenty of opportunity. That opportunity did not present the way I liked and as a result, I cut winners short. I did manage to stay above water but the occasional full on stop out day like today resulted in a losing week....my first one in a long time.

The lesson is this. I don't trade time, I trade structure. And structure cares nothing about time. This means I must stay with the trade regardless of how long its taking. Just hang in there. Had I stayed with the structure, I would have had a 100+ week instead of a losing week.

On Wednesday, I was long and almost out of time. I had to leave for SoCal. It was either close the trade and leave or stay home. So I closed the trade. I should have just got up and walked away. I would have had $500 waiting for me when I got home....but that assumes no freak flash crashes occurs, no power interruptions, etc....still smarter to just close the trade....or wait a few minutes longer.

Either way, the week was lost on Monday and Tuesday when I closed the winning trades short. Small decisions compound themselves over time and in this case, led to a losing week.

I preach holding the winners and let them overcome the losers thereby producing a profit over time. This is impossible to do if you cut them short!

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 madLyfe 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Often times, its the losing weeks that offer the best lessons. This week I struggled with holding trades early in the week. Then I took a day off, which turned out to be the best trading day of week for my style and time frames. Then today, my style was completely ill suited for what was presented today.

So how is this a great lesson?

Its simple really. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, I had plenty of opportunity. That opportunity did not present the way I liked and as a result, I cut winners short. I did manage to stay above water but the occasional full on stop out day like today resulted in a losing week....my first one in a long time.

The lesson is this. I don't trade time, I trade structure. And structure cares nothing about time. This means I must stay with the trade regardless of how long its taking. Just hang in there. Had I stayed with the structure, I would have had a 100+ week instead of a losing week.

On Wednesday, I was long and almost out of time. I had to leave for SoCal. It was either close the trade and leave or stay home. So I closed the trade. I should have just got up and walked away. I would have had $500 waiting for me when I got home....but that assumes no freak flash crashes occurs, no power interruptions, etc....still smarter to just close the trade....or wait a few minutes longer.

Either way, the week was lost on Monday and Tuesday when I closed the winning trades short. Small decisions compound themselves over time and in this case, led to a losing week.

I preach holding the winners and let them overcome the losers thereby producing a profit over time. This is impossible to do if you cut them short!

hey panda, why not setup something like teamviewer so you can see your trades/manage them on the road? i even use it to play cards on my main pc on my N7 tablet while im out and about..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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 PandaWarrior 
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madLyfe View Post
hey panda, why not setup something like teamviewer so you can see your trades/manage them on the road? i even use it to play cards on my main pc on my N7 tablet while im out and about..

Pretty simple actually. I trade while in front of the computer. When I'm away from it with my family, I put trading out of my mind. I try as hard as I can to be present in the moment with my family. Life's to short to be obsessed by relatively trivial stuff.

While I love trading and talking about trading and even teaching about trading when opportunity presents itself, it's not my life. I understand those who feel differently and that's a valid choice, just not mine.

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 josh 
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And structure cares nothing about time.

Just to clarify, did you mean: structure cares nothing about our personal time (schedules, for example), as opposed to time, period?

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 PandaWarrior 
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josh View Post
Just to clarify, did you mean: structure cares nothing about our personal time (schedules, for example), as opposed to time, period?


That as well but more specifically since I trade tick charts, time structure is not dependent on time in the sense that if "X" time period bar is broken, then structure is broken. I don't have a time filter for a trade. My point was this, my trade guidelines say to stay in a trade until I reach my target or if that's not reached before structure changes, then either exit at the structure change or reverse at that point. Time is never an element of that decision.

In this case, time is only relevant with regard to my level of patience or lack thereof.

Occasionally price moves fast and other times the structure looks exactly the same but took 3 times as long to complete. The structure looks the same in both cases. The result is the same but the time is not. This is what I mean by time being irrelevant to structure. At least in my case....

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 xelaar 
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That as well but more specifically since I trade tick charts, time structure is not dependent on time in the sense that if "X" time period bar is broken, then structure is broken. I don't have a time filter for a trade. My point was this, my trade guidelines say to stay in a trade until I reach my target or if that's not reached before structure changes, then either exit at the structure change or reverse at that point. Time is never an element of that decision.

In this case, time is only relevant with regard to my level of patience or lack thereof.

Occasionally price moves fast and other times the structure looks exactly the same but took 3 times as long to complete. The structure looks the same in both cases. The result is the same but the time is not. This is what I mean by time being irrelevant to structure. At least in my case....

Good stuff Brian, I have found this out as well. Trade the price action and structure, time means nothing except to play tricks on larger time frame candle closes. Duration is of no importance. I hadidentical trades taken 10 seconds to target as well as 20 minutes.

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 ratfink 
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It's interesting, Gann of course found the exact opposite - that time is more important than price.

I think it depends on whether we are just trading structure (e.g. pullback/breakout/breakdown to likely target, fib or volume related), then we only need price, or if we are also trading context (e.g. wave/cycle, place/degree, corrective/impulsive) then time often says more clearly where we are likely to be. Days when we get both are a real bonus.

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 xelaar 
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ratfink View Post
It's interesting, Gann of course found the exact opposite - that time is more important than price.

I think it depends on whether we are just trading structure (e.g. pullback/breakout/breakdown to likely target, fib or volume related), then we only need price, or if we are also trading context (e.g. wave/cycle, place/degree, corrective/impulsive) then time often says more clearly where we are likely to be. Days when we get both are a real bonus.

I think time extensions be it Gann or Fib are used to find swing high or low around the level, gann also uses it for determining speed lines. But we are talking here about trade management and its duration and on far more smaller level. Imo

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 josh 
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PandaWarrior View Post
My point was this, my trade guidelines say to stay in a trade until I reach my target or if that's not reached before structure changes, then either exit at the structure change or reverse at that point. Time is never an element of that decision.

That's what I thought you meant. It makes for interesting discussion because people have very different opinions on the subject of "time" in markets, since the globalization of financial markets has seemingly made the time of day less important than previously.

Some believe that the price is the price, and it doesn't matter whether it took 30 seconds to get there, or whether it took 2 hours; an activity-based chart (tick, volume, range) would not discriminate. While I appreciate the practicality of this view from a chart reading perspective, IMHO the reality is quite different. Simply the fact that liquidity and volume are follow the same pattern every day except in rare cases, shows that in fact time is a very important factor in markets, because those who trade markets live by the rule of time, whether they like it or not.

Another point that is rather tangential but still works towards the idea is that of options and time decay. Time is a hugely important factor in option pricing. Given that, and the fact that writers (or holders) of options may trade underlyings depending on their option positions (a large put writer may bid a security up ahead of expiration in order to keep the premium, for example), it is reasonable to conclude that any instrument with an associated option contract may itself be subject to the effects of time decay. This is a bit more obscure, but it seems plausible nonetheless.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I appreciate the points you've made and I can readily admit that time could play a role in a non time based strategy. I have not explored this aspect at all other than the fact that I can look at at hundreds of charts and tell you with a degree of confidence that time was never a consideration in how that chart looked with regard to structure.

This would of course change with a time based chart. .

My only other consideration would be time of day. I find that there are patterns more or less at certain times of the day. In this regard, time is important to the degree that those patterns repeat. And they don't always repeat. It's just that there is a tendency for certain things to happen more or less around the same time every day.

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shanemcdonald28
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Everything matters.
Time also matters.
Everything is about time.
I have traded with just range charts on occasion and all of a sudden there was 12 0r 13 bars going up !
I didnt have time to get in the trade

What time is the non farm payroll report ?

What time is the opening range ?

What time does the pit open ?

You trade crude oil at certain times.

I could go on and on but I dont have time.

peace to the trading brethren

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 PandaWarrior 
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shanemcdonald28 View Post
Everything matters.
Time also matters.
Everything is about time.
I have traded with just range charts on occasion and all of a sudden there was 12 0r 13 bars going up !
I didnt have time to get in the trade

What time is the non farm payroll report ?

What time is the opening range ?

What time does the pit open ?

You trade crude oil at certain times.

I could go on and on but I dont have time.

peace to the trading brethren

I get all that....but we've drifted away from my original point.

That is; on a non time based bar, structure is what's important. Once entered, the trade should not exited because I get impatient because its taking to long even though the same trade yesterday took half the time the current one taking. Only exit once the objective is reached or the structure has changed.

Time becomes important only if an open trade begins to run into an important news event like the weekly inventory report. Then the decision to exit or keep the trade open becomes something to consider. Otherwise hold the trade.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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shanemcdonald28
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yes, I did stray from the original point, sorry.

Besides, I agree mostly with your thoughts on price structure.
I have 4 charts I use; range, renko, tick and minute. 3 are based on price and only one on time.
I do have a bias towards the price.

I have several automated strategies I use and they all are based on price structure and not time.

thanks

shane

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 Patrick S 
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Often times, its the losing weeks that offer the best lessons. This week I struggled with holding trades early in the week. Then I took a day off, which turned out to be the best trading day of week for my style and time frames. Then today, my style was completely ill suited for what was presented today.

So how is this a great lesson?

Its simple really. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, I had plenty of opportunity. That opportunity did not present the way I liked and as a result, I cut winners short. I did manage to stay above water but the occasional full on stop out day like today resulted in a losing week....my first one in a long time.

The lesson is this. I don't trade time, I trade structure. And structure cares nothing about time. This means I must stay with the trade regardless of how long its taking. Just hang in there. Had I stayed with the structure, I would have had a 100+ week instead of a losing week.

On Wednesday, I was long and almost out of time. I had to leave for SoCal. It was either close the trade and leave or stay home. So I closed the trade. I should have just got up and walked away. I would have had $500 waiting for me when I got home....but that assumes no freak flash crashes occurs, no power interruptions, etc....still smarter to just close the trade....or wait a few minutes longer.

Either way, the week was lost on Monday and Tuesday when I closed the winning trades short. Small decisions compound themselves over time and in this case, led to a losing week.

I preach holding the winners and let them overcome the losers thereby producing a profit over time. This is impossible to do if you cut them short!

@rsong18 this is the post you are looking for.


I have thought a lot about this post this weekend. From the looks of all the replies I gather many others did also.
This is truly what futures.io (formerly BMT) is all about.

My 2Cents is If you were to take the time and price axis off of 20 different charts I would dare to say you could not tell me if it was a 5 minute 60 min or a weekly.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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 PandaWarrior 
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Eventually exited with +50 ticks

+35 on the day


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 NW27 
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That looks like a Joe Ross Hook entry.

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 PandaWarrior 
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NW27 View Post
That looks like a Joe Ross Hook entry.

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Tapatalk

There's probably a dozen different names for it. I call it a breakout.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 EdgeExecution 
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PandaWarrior View Post

The lesson is this. I don't trade time, I trade structure. And structure cares nothing about time. This means I must stay with the trade regardless of how long its taking. Just hang in there. Had I stayed with the structure, I would have had a 100+ week instead of a losing week.

Very TRUE many of us Don't trade TIME , we trade Structure, but Glued to Time charts as it is 100 years Legacy ..

I struggled with this Time vs. Structure concept, recently started using RENKO charts in addition to my other charts, It is helping me.

Here is good Intro on RENKO charts
How to Trade with Renko Charts - YouTube

Here is my recent post with Renko charts .


It will take couple of days to understand the Dynamics of these RENKO in real time, once you get handle it may help you.

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 EdgeExecution 
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My only other consideration would be time of day. I find that there are patterns more or less at certain times of the day. In this regard, time is important to the degree that those patterns repeat. And they don't always repeat. It's just that there is a tendency for certain things to happen more or less around the same time every day.

I noticed some Patterns repeat majority of the days ( not always), For example with OIL CL here are two Time patterns I noticed repeats often days.

1/ moving in the 'Direction of the Trend ' from 2:10 to 2:17 PM EST
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- that is Leading to 15 minutes before PIT CLOSE 2:30 PM EST , I noticed many days this pattern. Price moved from PULL BACK to Previous Prevailing Trend Direction .one explanation I had is as follows.

a/ Let us take the example of CL today Tuesday 11/19 . With Price hovering around 94.05 many Bears are Trapped from 93.70 Levels and they are happy to close around 94.80 level . With the small Pull back to 93.90 Level many Trapped bears are waiting to Close around 93.80 Level .
b/ And Also 2:15 PM EST is also the time 'DAY Margin' expires with many of the FIRMS, so many people need to close at least some of their Positions.

- Bulls knows above two factors and and Bid up prices to 'Previous high range' , so is the UP Price Action .
- I noticed this pattern WORKED on the days especially when 'Bears' are Trapped in the Price action like Today

2/ Noticed prices are in Uptrend or at least stabilize ( NO big drop in price) from 1:20 to 1:30 PM EST and then 'DownTrend or Neutral' following 15 minutes that is 1:35 to - 1:45 PM EST
a/ I do not have explanation for this except , that is 1 hour before PIT close .

Again these Price patterns won't happen always, I would put the probability around 62% to 68%

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 PandaWarrior 
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Thought I'd throw up a forex trade I've been in for a couple of days....this trade has been as much as $1800 in profit....its over if and when it crosses the trend line.....

I am only charting here.....the actual trade is in my TINY forex account. I am trading in micros there so you do the math...its not about the money anyway at this point, still engaging in a thought experiment with regards to forex.

Honestly, I am finding I like it more and more....far less hassle and stress. Its basically set and forget....I had a small loser earlier. I tried to be short just before the little spike up and got taken out for about a $300 loss....but I shorted it again and got my stop above the spike.....and its paid off so far....I'm trying to be more mindful of the edges in this experiment....but its a different mindset and I don't always see it this clearly.

This is only my third trade since I started this. I made a huge winner on the way up, adding to the pull backs AND the break outs....then I missed the second leg up and then took the small loser....so not really enough work here to have any long term meaning.....


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 PandaWarrior 
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A friend mentioned to me today that I seem to be making good decisions every day....and in fact, I am making a reasonable number of poor decisions or at least ones that don't work out. What is working though, is in general, the good decisions I make I let those (mostly) override the effects of the poor decisions. I also strive to make sure the ones that don't work out are small....which makes it easier for the good decisions to override the effect of the bad ones.

Which leads me to my second thought.....there are two holy grails.....

1. The one between your ears which in time will allow you to realize and execute number two.

2. The Exit is far more important than the entry...both in terms of stops as well as profit taking.

3. I forgot to add the third....adding on to a winner....I'm not there yet. I've done it a few times with great success and a few times with less than great success....I'm still learning how to effectively implement this important piece of the puzzle.

Please no blow back on the importance of the entry....I know you need to minimize risk....but having miniscule risk all the time does no good if you are constantly exiting the trade in the wrong place.

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 PandaWarrior 
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This is an excerpt from Don Millers blog...

"Outliers are Critical. In poker, it's usually best to play conservative until you get a hand where the probabilities are strongly in your favor. When trading, it's usually the same. You need to wait until the odds are strongly in your favor, and then go in heavy. Unfortunately, those conditions may exist only 2 to 3 times per day and only in windows of a few seconds where you can get in at the right odds.

Outliers are the keys to the castle. You add to your winners. Try to turn each and every trade that goes in your favor into an outlier. Get as much out of each trade as you can. Inverse applies to trades going against you. Limit your losses to the best of your ability by knowing you're wrong and scratching before the market proves you're wrong.

At the end of the day, 1 or 2 outlier trades can make up for every missed opportunity or good trade gone bad. And those become outlier days. And those lead to outlier weeks. Pretty soon, you don't have to worry about being right 70+ percent of the time. You take all that stress of "being right" off your shoulders and that in turn makes it easier to scratch a trade that's lost its premise. I no longer think that it "may come back so I don't have to take the loss" or "just try to get out here on this limit!" Who cares, scratch it. Next bus is coming. It's a heck of a lot easier to come back from a 200.00 loss versus a 2000.00 loss."


And this is another post from that blog where he demonstrates the concept.

Vegas Preview ? ?I Raise? ? Creating Outlier Trades to Vastly Improve Your Bottom Line :: Don Miller's S&P Trading Tank

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 PandaWarrior 
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My charts from today.....it was a bust.....wasn't feeling the market movement early.....I even shorted an uptrend, something I haven't done in forever! I recovered though and ended positive but it could have been a killer day.

On a lighter and far more important note, I spent the last two hours volunteering at Operation Christmas Child. Its a great cause and they do fantastic work. Feel free to donate if you are so inclined. I'll be spending most of tomorrow there as well.


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 alejo 
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I have to ask, IF you capture something like this, why would you keep trading the rest of the day. Why even have the charts open? It may run and run and run today, but if you execute well on your plan, why tempt fate?

The pre-open wasn't as nice today as it has been but I survived it to get in and make more than twice my daily goal.

Sure enough, as I write this, it continues to run. So what.




excelent, instead of get out with fear , go in with more!
excelent
alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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 PandaWarrior 
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This is how I try to fix mistakes.

I was long out of the Globex HOD...it failed. I went long at the bottom and held for 30+ ticks and got a break even...Then I went short for -10, its not on the chart, Then I went short again....held to the top of the Asian session WORH...and trailed out when it stalled right before the targets. I also added to the trade as it progressed....at +31ish ticks which was around .66, the trade was break even at the blended entry and thats where it stayed until it stalled out. Of course it went further but my premise was to the ORH.....so the trade was a successful trade. +40 ticks on a blended 3 lot....










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 PandaWarrior 
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As many long time readers will remember, I've done some combines with TST in the past. In fact, I passed a few of them, can't remember how many to be honest but I could never maintain discipline long enough to make a difference and stay live under their rules.

Eventually I quit doing the combines and started applying what I had learned there about risk management and those lessons got me to break even trader status. Then I began to understand something about my trading and that was how to win. The light didn't come on like a light switch, instead it came on like the rising sun...slowly. And to be 100% transparent, I suspect this will be a lifelong thing. The sun always rising over my trading and exposing more and more truth to me with my trading improving incrementally along the way.

Then this spring, a friend asked me to do a combine with him and I consented, but, instead I had a heart attack. So that got postponed. Later on, he asked me again and this time I had both time and ability so we started the combine within a day of each other. He blew his account out and I won mine. Then I passed the live trader prep. And now, I have a live account at TST. (Not set up yet).

I've been a fan of TST for a long time. The rules can be tough to live with. But as a trader we have to accept the things we cannot change and work within those rules if we want to be successful. @mfbreakout has a great thread about working with what we are given and being successful within that context.

The stats below reflect my trading within the confines of TST and their rules...I think I have some insight into how they might be thinking about risk and reward and I tried to structure my combine to fit that perception. Apparently it worked because they really liked my combine.

In any event, I want traders that read my thread to know if you are underfunded and many are, TST is a great way to earn a funding...but you must be a real trader. Don't even try until you KNOW you can pass it.


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shanemcdonald28
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Excellent numbers ! And thanks for the post, it is very encouraging.

best to you

shane

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 PandaWarrior 
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In reference to my post a couple of days ago regarding how to fix mistakes and also the importance of outliers from Don Millers trading blog....I decided to do some down and dirty analysis of my own trading.....

I was not surprised to discover that out of around 150 trades documented since I started keeping score again, quite a large percentage of my profits have come from outliers...that handful of trades that account for the bulk of my profit.

What does this mean? It means that trading is about limiting losses until you can find the good trades and maximize them for all they are worth.

This means that my stats that tell me to hold trades longer is becoming more and more meaningful. And that I need to hold my trades even longer.

This means that keeping score is more important than one might otherwise realize. How else would you know this?

Here's to holding trades longer...

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 David_R 
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PandaWarrior View Post
In reference to my post a couple of days ago regarding how to fix mistakes and also the importance of outliers from Don Millers trading blog....I decided to do some down and dirty analysis of my own trading.....

I was not surprised to discover that out of around 150 trades documented since I started keeping score again, quite a large percentage of my profits have come from outliers...that handful of trades that account for the bulk of my profit.

What does this mean? It means that trading is about limiting losses until you can find the good trades and maximize them for all they are worth.

This means that my stats that tell me to hold trades longer is becoming more and more meaningful. And that I need to hold my trades even longer.

This means that keeping score is more important than one might otherwise realize. How else would you know this?

Here's to holding trades longer...


Panda,

Question for you. In the emini-watch.com thread I posted a link to 10 days to better emini trading. This is a series of videos created by Barry Taylor to help others improve their trading. One of the videos is regarding targets. He suggests shooting for a small targets and letting the market take you out instead of a trailing stop. He also advocated not moving ones stop because one can get stooped out prior to hitting target. The other component to this is that he says "stop assuming each trade will be a huge winner or trend move". He's saying that the market goes from contraction to expansion, so always assuming a large move is detrimental. This coincides with your comment on outliers. It makes sense that an outlier will come along only on occasion. He trades the ES, so it's a different animal, but I think the application applies to any market.

What do you think about this? I tend to think one needs to maximize profit potential and always taking small profits could be a bad habit. I've always thought that scaling out was the way to go much like Vance does. My impression is that TST likes small targets. Not sure about scaling. What do you think.

Congrats on the combine.

David

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 PandaWarrior 
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David_R View Post
Panda,

Question for you. In the emini-watch.com thread I posted a link to 10 days to better emini trading. This is a series of videos created by Barry Taylor to help others improve their trading. One of the videos is regarding targets. He suggests shooting for a small targets and letting the market take you out instead of a trailing stop. He also advocated not moving ones stop because one can get stooped out prior to hitting target. The other component to this is that he says "stop assuming each trade will be a huge winner or trend move". He's saying that the market goes from contraction to expansion, so always assuming a large move is detrimental. This coincides with your comment on outliers. It makes sense that an outlier will come along only on occasion. He trades the ES, so it's a different animal, but I think the application applies to any market.

What do you think about this? I tend to think one needs to maximize profit potential and always taking small profits could be a bad habit. I've always thought that scaling out was the way to go much like Vance does. My impression is that TST likes small targets. Not sure about scaling. What do you think.

Congrats on the combine.

David

I think small targets are the domain of the fearful. I believe in targets...somewhere on the chart that seems to make sense. Also I believe in the idea of backtesting as well as forward testing MTFE, a term I invented to describe the Maximum Total Favorable Excursion or the total distance a trade went before reversing and before hitting your stop regardless of where you exited. In my case, this amounts to around 50-70 ticks on average a typical winning trade will progress before some sort of major pull back or reversal.

I also agree that markets are constantly contracting and expanding. Therefore many of my small losers or winners are probing attempts to find the point at which the market will expand out of consolidation. I of course have ideas about how to do this but they are by no means conclusive and exhaustive.

Its this probing that results in a series of small losers and winners that essentially offset each other and allows the profit generating power of the outliers. The scatter graphs of my trades are remarkably similar to Don Millers that he demonstrated several years ago. Obviously his numbers were quite a bit larger than mine but the principal is the same. Lots of smallish winners and losers followed by some really large gains.

My gains have come with single lots on larger wins for the most part....but the reality is this, those larger wins could have been multiplied several times by scaling INTO the trade as it progressed....something Don Miller advocates as well as Phantom of the Pits and any other professional trader will tell you.

Essentially its eating like an elephant and shitting like a bird. Lose small and often, win big less frequently and with as big a size as you can safely put on. Counter intuitive but highly effective. If there's a holy grail in trading, its this.

As to the idea of always assuming every move will be a large one, you cannot assume that but you almost must work your trades with the idea that it COULD be the big one. Otherwise why take it? Of course a small percentage of those will turn into larger winners but it happens often enough to offset the small losers.

TST does seem to favor smaller winners but I won my combine trading exactly the opposite of this. I think the reason it seems TST favors smaller wins is because they are trying to get people to be consistent and control risk at the same time and most traders can't control risk well enough to place themselves in position to achieve those larger trades. Example. The loss limit for my combine was $500 a day and $1500 over all. My largest drawdown was -$85 or so. I'd have loser days of -$250 and I'd quit knowing I could make $500 the next day. It didn't work out that way over time but it worked well enough. Most people lose $495 and make $50 the next day. They won't quit at -$250. They keep trying but they end up losing it all. Those probe trades didn't work that day but they refuse to acknowledge this and just keep going. Today three trades might fail and I quit and tomorrow one trade ends up being the big winner and I'm up for the two days.

TST also has their program set up to scale out. The rules say not to add to a trade unless you're up $500. On a single lot trade, I'm pretty much done if its in profit $500 so adding in was not an option. If you trade multiple lots up front on the larger accounts, no problem. However, I pretty much think this rule is to keep the amateurs from completely blowing themselves up. While I was doing my combine with a single lot, I traded on my own and a few times I was able to scale in and make significantly more money than I did in the combine account. One day in particular, I made the entire combine profit objective on one trade by scaling in.....but no way to take that trade in the combine, the rules didn't allow me to scale in the way I did on my own.

Done properly, scaling IN is far superior to scaling out. As is all in all out. Scaling out is an emotional crutch...a valuable crutch to be sure and one that works wonderfully to allow traders to get the risk off if that's what it takes to allow a runner to develop its full potential. However the way most people do it is wrong, most people think a runner is 20 ticks. I know Vance doesn't think like that but many do. So a 15 tick 1st target and a 20 tick secondary target is foolish.

Assuming a full stop out on 2 lots of say 15 ticks, you need a win rate at +/-50% to make money and cover expenses. The only way this makes any sense at all is if that runner is allowed to run and run. On a 250 tick day in CL, it needs to run all day. Most don't have this ability to hold a runner that long....me included. So for me, scale in or all in all out is better as I rarely allow runners to go to their natural conclusion. If I did, my trading would be significantly superior to what it is now. Its something I am working on.

For a combine, I would suggest the $30,000, trade one lot until you have enough money banked to afford a few stop outs on 2 lots and then add another one. I would use fixed targets but make them large enough that your winning trades are 2-5 times larger than your typical loser....and if you are trading at the extreme edges like the MP people say they do, then your profit targets should be 5-10 times bigger than your stops.

And never lose more per day than half your typical winning day. Never.

Hope that helps.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1892 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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Would you say, then, that all scalpers are fearful ? I think there may be a few millionaires trading huge size for a
few points

]I think small targets are the domain of the fearful.


For me, with my current risk tolerance, I must straddle the fence. This means 2 cars initially. One to nail
2 points and the other to run until a large pullback breaks the classic PA rules - scaling in when the odd classic
trend happens in NQ.

I think CL runs more consistently for you and more extreme , letting you wait for the big hits.

Trading the equity index for me, means taking money fast and often , but always giving your runner a chance
to catch a full session run ( Rare )

I agree the runner needs to be open ended. I rarely pick the top of a BO correctly. Let PA take you out.

Happy Thanksgiving, my friend !!!



PandaWarrior View Post
I think small targets are the domain of the fearful. I believe in targets...somewhere on the chart that seems to make sense. Also I believe in the idea of backtesting as well as forward testing MTFE, a term I invented to describe the Maximum Total Favorable Excursion or the total distance a trade went before reversing and before hitting your stop regardless of where you exited. In my case, this amounts to around 50-70 ticks on average a typical winning trade will progress before some sort of major pull back or reversal.

I also agree that markets are constantly contracting and expanding. Therefore many of my small losers or winners are probing attempts to find the point at which the market will expand out of consolidation. I of course have ideas about how to do this but they are by no means conclusive and exhaustive.

Its this probing that results in a series of small losers and winners that essentially offset each other and allows the profit generating power of the outliers. The scatter graphs of my trades are remarkably similar to Don Millers that he demonstrated several years ago. Obviously his numbers were quite a bit larger than mine but the principal is the same. Lots of smallish winners and losers followed by some really large gains.

My gains have come with single lots on larger wins for the most part....but the reality is this, those larger wins could have been multiplied several times by scaling INTO the trade as it progressed....something Don Miller advocates as well as Phantom of the Pits and any other professional trader will tell you.

Essentially its eating like an elephant and shitting like a bird. Lose small and often, win big less frequently and with as big a size as you can safely put on. Counter intuitive but highly effective. If there's a holy grail in trading, its this.

As to the idea of always assuming every move will be a large one, you cannot assume that but you almost must work your trades with the idea that it COULD be the big one. Otherwise why take it? Of course a small percentage of those will turn into larger winners but it happens often enough to offset the small losers.

TST does seem to favor smaller winners but I won my combine trading exactly the opposite of this. I think the reason it seems TST favors smaller wins is because they are trying to get people to be consistent and control risk at the same time and most traders can't control risk well enough to place themselves in position to achieve those larger trades. Example. The loss limit for my combine was $500 a day and $1500 over all. My largest drawdown was -$85 or so. I'd have loser days of -$250 and I'd quit knowing I could make $500 the next day. It didn't work out that way over time but it worked well enough. Most people lose $495 and make $50 the next day. They won't quit at -$250. They keep trying but they end up losing it all. Those probe trades didn't work that day but they refuse to acknowledge this and just keep going. Today three trades might fail and I quit and tomorrow one trade ends up being the big winner and I'm up for the two days.

TST also has their program set up to scale out. The rules say not to add to a trade unless you're up $500. On a single lot trade, I'm pretty much done if its in profit $500 so adding in was not an option. If you trade multiple lots up front on the larger accounts, no problem. However, I pretty much think this rule is to keep the amateurs from completely blowing themselves up. While I was doing my combine with a single lot, I traded on my own and a few times I was able to scale in and make significantly more money than I did in the combine account. One day in particular, I made the entire combine profit objective on one trade by scaling in.....but no way to take that trade in the combine, the rules didn't allow me to scale in the way I did on my own.

Done properly, scaling IN is far superior to scaling out. As is all in all out. Scaling out is an emotional crutch...a valuable crutch to be sure and one that works wonderfully to allow traders to get the risk off if that's what it takes to allow a runner to develop its full potential. However the way most people do it is wrong, most people think a runner is 20 ticks. I know Vance doesn't think like that but many do. So a 15 tick 1st target and a 20 tick secondary target is foolish.

Assuming a full stop out on 2 lots of say 15 ticks, you need a win rate at +/-50% to make money and cover expenses. The only way this makes any sense at all is if that runner is allowed to run and run. On a 250 tick day in CL, it needs to run all day. Most don't have this ability to hold a runner that long....me included. So for me, scale in or all in all out is better as I rarely allow runners to go to their natural conclusion. If I did, my trading would be significantly superior to what it is now. Its something I am working on.

For a combine, I would suggest the $30,000, trade one lot until you have enough money banked to afford a few stop outs on 2 lots and then add another one. I would use fixed targets but make them large enough that your winning trades are 2-5 times larger than your typical loser....and if you are trading at the extreme edges like the MP people say they do, then your profit targets should be 5-10 times bigger than your stops.

And never lose more per day than half your typical winning day. Never.

Hope that helps.....



AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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  #1893 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
Would you say, then, that all scalpers are fearful ? I think there may be a few millionaires trading huge size for a
few points

]I think small targets are the domain of the fearful.


For me, with my current risk tolerance, I must straddle the fence. This means 2 cars initially. One to nail
2 points and the other to run until a large pullback breaks the classic PA rules - scaling in when the odd classic
trend happens in NQ.

I think CL runs more consistently for you and more extreme , letting you wait for the big hits.

Trading the equity index for me, means taking money fast and often , but always giving your runner a chance
to catch a full session run ( Rare )

I agree the runner needs to be open ended. I rarely pick the top of a BO correctly. Let PA take you out.

Happy Thanksgiving, my friend !!!

Well perhaps I overspoke about all small target traders being fearful...but I do think it applies to most retail traders just starting out or struggling to risk tiny amounts of money and trading really small charts in an attempt to have a high win rate and small stops.....I know the aglos are scalping all day long but of course I think its pretty obvious I didnt mean the HFT algos.

I still think the runner needs to be big enough to make up for the occasional stop out with a full position on....on NQ, it looks like available ticks are around 25-50 ticks most days...this means your risk needs to be in the 5-15 range.










etc, etc, etc......

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 xelaar 
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Absolutely awesome stuff guys!

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 xelaar 
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I have spent a day programming my strategy in Ninja to full automation, well my most mechanical strategy. So I did a lot of back tests and some real time tests. From back tests I could see that going for an outlier indeed can squeeze a bit more profit per car but also increases drawdowns a lot as well as number of subsequent losers. From I see if you can get smaller profit per car with less drawdown and higher win rate, then look if increasing size will be more beneficial than going for larger runners with less size. It was certainly the case for me. Thus said I still look for more win than losers and larger win than losers.

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  #1896 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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I agree with your assessment of NQ completely. The risk reward values are spot on for that market and
the way I trade. Thank you for taking the time to work up the charts. Most useful.

This ain't your first rodeo, hoss....


AJ
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 tderrick 
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tderrick View Post
I agree with your assessment of NQ completely. The risk reward values are spot on for that market and
the way I trade. Thank you for taking the time to work up the charts. Most useful.

This ain't your first rodeo, hoss....


Question : being absolutely terrified of taking BO trades, do you use a stop order on either side of the
consolidation range, or do you wait for the BO, then place a limit order at the edge of the range at wait
for the PB to the old SR top / bottom ?

I Feel I'm always chasing and late to the party when trying to enter at the BO point,
because, as you know, I like to trade the edges of consolidation inward. I call this ping pong trading
as I can have orders on either side for hours sometimes just trading the balanced market range.

The BO leg (still within the consolidation zone)
always has a different "feel" to it. Tape is accelerated, the dom order flow will have a steady,
large contract count with little to zero on the opposite side. Bars will be stacked with little retracement.
This is when I get ready to start scaling in. I am already in the trade.

Just sitting and watching a perfect consolidation range is maddening to me. It's typically very easy to see
on the VP where to place the edge limit orders and targets in a balanced market. After price breaks, I switch
to trend / PB mode, which for me, is placing limit orders at strategic locations following the trend - using PA
stair step patterns and volume mountains and valleys in VP.

Man... is trading great or what !!!


AJ
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 Traderwolf 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I think small targets are the domain of the fearful. I believe in targets...somewhere on the chart that seems to make sense. Also I believe in the idea of backtesting as well as forward testing MTFE, a term I invented to describe the Maximum Total Favorable Excursion or the total distance a trade went before reversing and before hitting your stop regardless of where you exited. In my case, this amounts to around 50-70 ticks on average a typical winning trade will progress before some sort of major pull back or reversal.

I also agree that markets are constantly contracting and expanding. Therefore many of my small losers or winners are probing attempts to find the point at which the market will expand out of consolidation. I of course have ideas about how to do this but they are by no means conclusive and exhaustive.

Its this probing that results in a series of small losers and winners that essentially offset each other and allows the profit generating power of the outliers. The scatter graphs of my trades are remarkably similar to Don Millers that he demonstrated several years ago. Obviously his numbers were quite a bit larger than mine but the principal is the same. Lots of smallish winners and losers followed by some really large gains.

My gains have come with single lots on larger wins for the most part....but the reality is this, those larger wins could have been multiplied several times by scaling INTO the trade as it progressed....something Don Miller advocates as well as Phantom of the Pits and any other professional trader will tell you.

Essentially its eating like an elephant and shitting like a bird. Lose small and often, win big less frequently and with as big a size as you can safely put on. Counter intuitive but highly effective. If there's a holy grail in trading, its this.

As to the idea of always assuming every move will be a large one, you cannot assume that but you almost must work your trades with the idea that it COULD be the big one. Otherwise why take it? Of course a small percentage of those will turn into larger winners but it happens often enough to offset the small losers.

TST does seem to favor smaller winners but I won my combine trading exactly the opposite of this. I think the reason it seems TST favors smaller wins is because they are trying to get people to be consistent and control risk at the same time and most traders can't control risk well enough to place themselves in position to achieve those larger trades. Example. The loss limit for my combine was $500 a day and $1500 over all. My largest