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The PandaWarrior Chronicles


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The PandaWarrior Chronicles

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  #1501 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Panda,

Hang tough. Scratch in the big sceem of things is pretty good. Breaking rules can have disasterous effects, so not so bad.

On your 3rd rule of 70%, is that the size of retracement after rules 1and 2 are met?

D

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  #1502 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Maelstrom View Post
Panda,

I know I don't need to tell you this, but after a day of admitting to breaking your own rules repeatedly, ending with a scratch day is certainly a positive.

New day tomorrow my friend.....

The scratch day happened because I got hold of myself, followed the guidelines, (I don't like to call them rules) and made my money back. I did have a long that I scratched as well but I didn't like that one from the start. So I got it BE ASAP.

And you are correct, it's a new day tomorrow. And I'm looking forward to it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1503 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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David_R View Post
Panda,

Hang tough. Scratch in the big sceem of things is pretty good. Breaking rules can have disasterous effects, so not so bad.

On your 3rd rule of 70%, is that the size of retracement after rules 1and 2 are met?

D

Correct, it's a guideline to help find better entries with lower risk. Doesn't always happen of course but I am trying to get to where this the normal set up as opposed to the break of the break setup I've been using. The BOB setup has worked pretty well as long as I put the stop in the right place but I'd love to minimize the risk and doing this means I can see another 10-20 ticks of profit before the target zones are reached. Over all I like the idea, getting it done in real time is another matter.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1504 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Took three trades to get it done, but ended the day with a nice winning trade to get back in the saddle of winning.

I got up an hour late so missed the pre-market rally which is something I like to catch if possible, but not today. However, I am happy to have gotten my win in and I'm satisfied with it.

And as per my decision to never sit for 5 hours again, I am done for the day.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1505 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Spent time on the phone this morning with my broker...had some issues....got those resolved but was unable to really concentrate on the action and ended with a couple of small losers and a couple of small winners...I'll post the chart later on but have to run right now....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1506 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1507 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Last trading day for a week. Taking my kid to see the whales in SD on Sunday. I need the rest and sea air to clear my head. Been in a bit of a draw down/breakeven stage and it seems to me, I'm not really reading price action really well.

Only two trades today but after the last one, I just decided to call it and watch til my trading hours were up.....mark levels and see how I do.....

I rang up @indextrader7 and he gave me some encouraging words, went over my trades with me and gave me some perspective....Thank you sir.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1508 (permalink)
 addchild 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Last trading day for a week. Taking my kid to see the whales in SD on Sunday.


I spent almost 2 minutes questioning my vague knowledge of geography, thinking "I swear South Dakota is a land locked state"

Then i realized you were talking about San Diego.

.
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  #1509 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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addchild View Post
I spent almost 2 minutes questioning my vague knowledge of geography, thinking "I swear South Dakota is a land locked state"

Then i realized you were talking about San Diego.

LOL...hard to watch whales in South Dakota.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1510 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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addchild View Post
I spent almost 2 minutes questioning my vague knowledge of geography, thinking "I swear South Dakota is a land locked state"

Then i realized you were talking about San Diego.

It's OK, I was originally thinking he was going to watch them in standard definition.

Mike

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  #1511 (permalink)
rompetechos
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Great job, keep writing!

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  #1512 (permalink)
 pvlee 
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Hi PandaWarrior,

Thanks for publishing this great journal.

When you show your entries with red and green arrows, do you get in after a bar has closed in your trade direction or do you get in at where you think the trend line is without any confirmation? I always assumed that to be a confirmed trend line you need at least 2 touches on the line.

Thanks,
Paul

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  #1513 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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pvlee View Post
Hi PandaWarrior,

Thanks for publishing this great journal.

When you show your entries with red and green arrows, do you get in after a bar has closed in your trade direction or do you get in at where you think the trend line is without any confirmation? I always assumed that to be a confirmed trend line you need at least 2 touches on the line.

Thanks,
Paul

Sometimes I wait for a bar to close in my direction and others I take it without confirmation at a predefined pullback level.

I guess it depends on how I'm feeling that day.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1514 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Whale watching was a bust....no whales, only spouts....oh well. I did get to see dolphins ride the wave the boat was making on the way back to shore...that was cool....wife and kid slept through that part though...I have pictures of them sleeping below decks....I think they were sea sick. lol. I was nervous at first, they were cool, then I got used to the pitching and rolling and started to enjoy the trip and then they checked out.....go figure.....

The rest of the trip was cool though. I got to meet another trader from the forum. Got a really good idea from him.....thank you sir...you know who you are.....ate at PF Chang's. One of my favorite places to eat....man those dumplings were fantastic! A nice day at the beach on Tuesday, laid around and did nothing for awhile....hard to beat sea air and warm sun for inducing laziness.....felt fantastic to just sit and do nothing.....well except think....and I thought a lot about my trading. Some take aways:

1. I do have an edge and I'm comfortable with it.
2. I'm ok with fixed targets....both smallish ones and larger ones....depends on market structure. wrestled with this for a long time.
3. Stops are best left alone.
4. I'm at my best when I trade small initially....
5. I must scale in.....press the winners.
6. Be more aware of the dominate trend. Make sure I don't fight it.
7. Its ok to enter with no confirmation. Just don't spend a fortune to find out if I'm right.
8. Limit the amount of information I take in and process to justify a trade. The more charts, the more higher time frames, the more levels I look at....all conspire to reduce confidence. Find the information I need for the trade and stop looking.
9. Do just a little bit more home work prior to trading in the morning.....save myself a few ticks here and there.
10. Sometimes you just have to go with it.....let my intuition be my guide....again, don't spend a fortune to find out if I'm right.

Also decided to start a combine next week assuming TST answers a couple of questions I have regarding trade and money management before I start. Otherwise it will be the following week or perhaps not at all depending on the answers. I do start a combine, I'll post those results here as well.

Anyway, a nice week so far, and looking forward to getting back to work tomorrow.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1515 (permalink)
 Daytrader999 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Anyway, a nice week so far, and looking forward to getting back to work tomorrow.

Happy Birthday Brian !

Enjoy the day together with your loved ones and have a great time before you get back to work...

I really envy you for the whale watching, quite hard to do that over here in Germany.

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  #1516 (permalink)
 AttitudeTrader 
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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Hey!

Happy Birthday!!



-AT

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #1517 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Happy Birthday!





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 calitrader 
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Happy Birthday Brian!!

Chris

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  #1519 (permalink)
 trs3042 
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY BRIAN!!! Make it a GREAT one!!!



Rick

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  #1520 (permalink)
 Massive l 
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Happy Birthday P-Dub!

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  #1521 (permalink)
 xelaar 
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All the best!!

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  #1522 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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No trades today. I woke up really late....guess I was more tired from my seafaring trip than I realized....so I elected to goof around on sim today...it didnt go well....but to be fair, I was emailing TST back and forth today and talking to my friend on skype about his trading as well as someone he's teaching to trade....so honestly didn't really pay that much attention.....in any event, I should be back to trading for real tomorrow....

As to the TST thing, it looks like I'll start one a week from Monday. They gave me a free trial week to get used to the platform again since its been so long since I did a combine.....so probably start the "trial" on monday and then the combine after that...

A big thank you to everyone that stopped by to say happy birthday....I appreciate it....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1523 (permalink)
 syxforex 
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Enjoy the Cake Cabron!!!

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  #1524 (permalink)
 EastCoastTrader 
NoVa, USA
 
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Happy belated birthday!

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  #1525 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I traded cautiously today, not much risk. Just trying to get back into the saddle after almost a week gone. Also trying to overcome the break even streak I've been on the last 2-3 weeks. March was basically a break even month for me. I did make money but the equity curve was not pretty.

I think I took to much risk on most of the trades and secondly, I think I misjudged in many cases where my targets needed to be. In some cases, I got greedy and had targets to large, in others, to close. Which added up to missed opportunity in both cases. Oddly enough, I'm reasonably good at figuring out where they should be, however, I don't always acknowledge this while the trade is live. If I expect the market to turn at a certain point, it makes no sense to have a target further away than this and yet this happened several times in March. The result was when the market turned, I missed out on profit that would have otherwise been mine. Other times, I simply refused to accept the fact the target which was quite far away was within the realm of possibility and so took profit to soon.....

Time is a factor here. For the larger targets, I start getting impatient around the 15-20 min mark. I've noticed that a trade that's in profit but stalls around that time frame ends up costing me money because I'll close it down, only to see it continue on a few minutes later....best practice is to just walk away but then thats not prudent for a variety of reasons.

While my patience has come a long way, I recognize it still is incomplete. I continue to work on this while standing in line at the store, in traffic, waiting on my family to get ready to go somewhere, (this is a hard one) waiting at the doctor, or any other instance where patience is not normally expected....I try to just breathe, let the impatience wash over and through me and then be replaced with calm acceptance of the circumstances and just go with the flow. It is carrying over to my trading, slowly but surely. But gosh darn it, not fast enough!

Anyway, I am one and done today. A large opening range could spell sideways for quite a while. So I was able to execute my trading plan today nearly perfect. My only real mistake was not clicking the sell button a few seconds earlier as I expected my limit order to be filled and when it wasn't I hesitated a bit to long, still it was a good trade and I am satisfied with my performance today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1526 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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Happy Birthday, brother.... hope you had a good one


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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  #1527 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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50 ticks so far.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1528 (permalink)
 soumi71 
Toronto
 
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Nice Entry Brian :-)


Enjoy the week-end !

"Risk more than others think safe.
Dream more than others think practical.
Expect more than others think possible.
Care more than others think wise"
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  #1529 (permalink)
 TonyParisi 
Jacksonville, FL
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
50 ticks so far.....


Hey bro, been following you for a while. Noticed you slightly changed your charts lately, but it looks just cosmetic, love the simplicity. Anyway, I noticed you threw up what I think to be your rules in the top left hand corner???? The:
1) Break Swing
2) Break TL
3) 70% retracement

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 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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TonyParisi View Post
Hey bro, been following you for a while. Noticed you slightly changed your charts lately, but it looks just cosmetic, love the simplicity. Anyway, I noticed you threw up what I think to be your rules in the top left hand corner???? The:
1) Break Swing
2) Break TL
3) 70% retracement

Thanks for chiming in and for the compliment.

I am slowly reducing the stuff on my charts. I want to be able to see the flow of price and not all the lines....next on my list of things to remove....trend lines....and just go with the horizontal levels. I'm not there yet, but its on my bucket list....

What I currently have are the opening range set to the first 5 minutes of the cash session along with the 50% level of the opening range, the 50% level of the daily range tracking from the electronic open, the ADR indicator that tells me what the current, most recent 3 and 10 tradings days average is and the little indie that reminds me of my basic rules.....thats it...I do have the current HOD and LOD as well as prior day HOD and LOD on a higher time frame chart but those are not necessary on my trading chart.

The opening range is my initial bearish/bullish bias indicator, the 50% fib is my larger picture bearish/bullish indicator + it often functions as a support or resistance level, the ADR just helps me figure out how aggressive to be or not to be based on the range. No need for a 100 tick target if the range is 66 ticks most of the time.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1531 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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another example of larger pull backs that look like they are counter trend.....I don't see this often in real time although I am trying to get better at it.....today was a near perfect day of these kinds of trades...


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1532 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Having trouble reading the curve lately, which is causing me to have diminished confidence in my trades once I'm in them. Second guessing myself and getting out or going to BE to soon.

A narrow day to be sure, opportunity missed and I'm stopped out for the day. Still below my DLL but still, I just don't have it today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1533 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Nice job of managing risk bud. Keep swinging.

 
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  #1534 (permalink)
 TonyParisi 
Jacksonville, FL
 
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Monday was a bit tough, couple of opportunities, but you had to be VERY patient, especially with the narrow early range. Hopefully we get some good moves today (Tuesday).

PandaWarrior View Post
Having trouble reading the curve lately, which is causing me to have diminished confidence in my trades once I'm in them. Second guessing myself and getting out or going to BE to soon.

A narrow day to be sure, opportunity missed and I'm stopped out for the day. Still below my DLL but still, I just don't have it today.



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  #1535 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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So far today, I have passed on a nice short trade and taken what i believe is a very valid counter trend trade. The short I passed on because I said "I wont trade until the range opens up a bit....never mind I had a target picked out long before I took the trade....92.97, the halfway point of yesterdays opening range....60 ticks away. But I passed.

Sitting there watching it go toward the target, taking the counter trend trade and then getting a BE on it (rightly so I might add) was one of the most painful things I've done in a while. The last month I've struggled with mental issues.

I know right when it started as well....three days in a row I was faked out by a bull flag I thought was a trend reversal but instead was just a flag. I got stopped all three days on that trade, and missed the break of the flag to the long side. This caused me to start wondering what I was missing that was so obvious in hindsight.

Now, I find myself questioning everything. @indextrader7 skyped me yesterday to tell me I was spot on with my trades. That made me feel better but confidence has deteriorated for sure.

I want to get back to having a winning attitude and I have proposed taking a series of 10 ticks winners to just get that winning feeling back. However, from a trading standpoint, that doesn't make much sense. I should just take the trades I instinctively know I should take and let them play out. The counter trend trade I took today was one of those and I feel really good about it. It was executed perfectly. Both the entry and the exit. And yet overall, I still feel like crap.

As I type this, the range is still less than 1.00 and I had an opportunity to capture 60% of this....this makes me feel worse than a losing trade...missed opportunity because I was afraid. Missed opportunity because I didn't see it is one thing, missed because I was afraid is an entirely different matter.....

How it looked this morning....






Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 soumi71 
Toronto
 
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Don't be too hard on yourself .... mistakes happen and they are your best friend ..

You will not miss similar set-ups next time , because you know they work and you saw it live today ..

The market is always here and the next opportunity is just around the corner ...

Best of luck !

"Risk more than others think safe.
Dream more than others think practical.
Expect more than others think possible.
Care more than others think wise"
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  #1537 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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three more trades...honestly, just trying to not lose the will to trade while at the same time, trying to stay within guidelines and risk parameters.

-15 on the day. Not terrible but not great either. Should have been one and done today. AND I should have captured the long off the bottom but was licking my self inflicted emotional wounds.

Short Trades:

1. Was a mistake. A blind sell at the level. Right idea, wrong timing
2. 70% pull back, good execution, so so management.
3. Didnt wait for the trend line touch. Just closed it out.

Left to take my kid to school as i was done for the day mentally. The long that happened was a classic break out pull back that is working like a charm.....arg.....

I am going back on sim for the remainder of the week. Try to recapture the winning feeling. I also think I will start a combine on Monday IF I feel like I'm winning again.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1538 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Ken Grant - "Trading Risk"


Quoting 

As a final point regarding the 90/10 rule, I encourage you to use this knowledge to fortify your patience. In my experience, the typical portfolio manager may go through weeks, if not months, of difficulties in the markets before he or she ultimately gets paid. In these intervals, your thoughts may lean toward the radical as you assume that the core fundamentals of your model have broken down and that drastic changes are needed. In fact, the 90/10 rule instructs us otherwise. It's useful, during these moments, to remember that even the best traders are subject to profitability concentration and, as such, often have extended periods of underperformance. As long as you are managing risk properly during these intervals, it is likely that what you are experiencing is not a fundamental, negative shift in your portfolio management prospects, but rather the ebb and flow of the marketplace, which, as a rule, does not award large profit opportunities to market participants on a routine, continuous basis.

Time is on your side here, provided that you can effectively control your exposures. Over the longer haul, the market is likely to offer you ample opportunities to fill that 10% bucket to the brim. By contrast, if you change your strategy every time you go through an extended dry spell, it's difficult to imagine how you will ever achieve the type of flow that is conducive to your best trading intervals.

For posterity.

 
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  #1539 (permalink)
 Adamus 
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indextrader7 View Post
Ken Grant - "Trading Risk"


I got that book - a great read and full of interesting stuff, but the portfolio theory stuff has been totally debunked now because of the fat tails in the distributions of trading returns. Although you probably realise that already. Or weren't interested at that point in the book.

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 gigibastar 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I am going back on sim for the remainder of the week.

Hi Panda

For me this is not a good idea.
Instead take some free time for yourself. No charts, no forum etc.
Give your brain a break. Will be back fresh and ready for trading.

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 PandaWarrior 
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Well I've been gone for a while. Two issues, I was and currently am still on sim following a March that was break even followed by some draw down. However, the big issue was that I had a cardiac incident a number of days ago and while I've followed some of the journals by mobile phone, I've been away from the charts for a few days.

I did trade a bit yesterday but nothing to really speak of and today was the first day I really decided to focus and try to follow my trading plan and make some money (sim).

I finished the day +47 and I think all trades met my definition of something I could do. I did close a couple of them out early as I didn't feel all that comfortable with them and my second long was taken out prematurely by an errant trailing stop. I selected an ATM with a trail when I didn't mean to, otherwise that would have been my one and done trade for the day.

As to the cardiac incident, I am doing ok, have my first follow up visit with the doc on Monday, and beginning to learn how to eat again. Fortunately, it was quite mild and so with my youngish age, lifestyle modification, etc, I should live long enough to be an embarrassment to my kiddo long into her 40s or even 50s.....that would make me quite old by that time.

As you know, there is more to life than trading and tucking my kiddo into bed and holding her when she comes home from school is FAR more important than trading (or anything else for that matter). If you are a trade aholic reading this, just stop and go kiss your family. It could be gone in an instant.

My chart today.


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  #1542 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
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Hi PW, great post, sorry about what it was caused by. You're probably my age and I know I worry about stuff like heart problems, and all the other stuff that can take you out before you're ready - but last year I watched a BBC documentary called "Horizon - Eat, fast, live longer" by a guy called Dr Michael Mosley. It's pretty convincing. Pretty much the giste of it is that you can get rid of heart disease and the danger of cancer, Alzheimer's, you name it, any Western disease like that by fasting 2 days a week. Big claims I know. And it sounds terrible to not eat 2 days a week, but I've been doing it for 2 weeks now and it's not so bad. Watch the documentary if you can find it - he sells the idea much better than I can - sometimes it's on youtube but it gets taken down regularly. Good luck.

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  #1543 (permalink)
dallasstarsfan
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Hi PW,

I've been a silent admirer of your journal for some time.

I had a minor cardiac event 10 years ago at age 39. It was quite alarming and unpleasant dealing with mortality at an "early age." I know that my event was stress induced. Balance in life is as important as it is in trading and I know you have alluded to this in your journal.

The great thing about "minor cardiac events" is that they are often just that....minor. If your event was minor and you have a good cardiologist you will likely be embarrassing your daughter in her 60's as planned.

I'm sure you have a good support group in place, but feel free to reach out to me if you like.

Thanks for all the effort you have put into your journal. I'm sure it's helpful to many individuals.

Keep up the good work.

DSF

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 Auric 
Raleigh, NC
 
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Hi Panda,

I too just had a cardiac event a couple of weeks ago, prolonged atrial fib that lasted well over 24 hours with my heart rate ranging from 100-150. I'm 37 and relatively healthy and it put some things in perspective for me.

What put things in even more perspective was that same night a coworker's husband experienced an aortal dissection (age 50). They had to take his heart out to work on him and afterwards he's had some complications but he's lucky to be alive with a 75% morbidity rate.

I hug my kids tighter now so I know where you're coming from. Hope you're well on the road to recovery.

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  #1545 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Well I've been gone for a while. Two issues, I was and currently am still on sim following a March that was break even followed by some draw down. However, the big issue was that I had a cardiac incident a number of days ago and while I've followed some of the journals by mobile phone, I've been away from the charts for a few days.

I did trade a bit yesterday but nothing to really speak of and today was the first day I really decided to focus and try to follow my trading plan and make some money (sim).

I finished the day +47 and I think all trades met my definition of something I could do. I did close a couple of them out early as I didn't feel all that comfortable with them and my second long was taken out prematurely by an errant trailing stop. I selected an ATM with a trail when I didn't mean to, otherwise that would have been my one and done trade for the day.

As to the cardiac incident, I am doing ok, have my first follow up visit with the doc on Monday, and beginning to learn how to eat again. Fortunately, it was quite mild and so with my youngish age, lifestyle modification, etc, I should live long enough to be an embarrassment to my kiddo long into her 40s or even 50s.....that would make me quite old by that time.

As you know, there is more to life than trading and tucking my kiddo into bed and holding her when she comes home from school is FAR more important than trading (or anything else for that matter). If you are a trade aholic reading this, just stop and go kiss your family. It could be gone in an instant.

My chart today.


Panda,

Please explain your new third rule.

Rest and be well.

David

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  #1546 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Interesting day today. I tried getting short several times this morning, they all failed....mostly due to the fact I was unwilling to set the stop where it needed to be....many ticks away. Once my short set ups failed, I got long, did not like it at all and close it pretty quick. A few minutes later, the short I was looking for all morning happened and I capitalized on it pretty well.

Of course the trade of the day was the long that happened some time later but by then, I was long gone.

Healthwise, yesterday was a disaster. One of the meds the doc put me on was lisinopril. This thing made me cough something terrible almost from the minute they first gave it to me in the hospital. Its for high blood pressure I think and my blood pressure is mostly normal. Anyway, yesterday starting around 10:30 my time, I coughed almost all day. Today my chest is sore from all the coughing. I called the doc and they took me off the med and today, almost no coughing. Still some residual effect I suspect causing the remaining coughing but a much better day overall. In a few minutes, I am head for the cardiac rehab center for a tour and sign up for their program. Everyone that I know thats been through it says nothing but good about them.

Life sure is interesting.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 PandaWarrior 
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Panda,

Please explain your new third rule.

Rest and be well.

David

This is the old third rule. The new third rule was causing me drawdown, the old third rule is what worked for me but I got away from with the new third rule.

Basically it says to do business where other shorter time frame traders like me are puking out stops from having positions opposite of the current market direction.

Some more details. By the way, I normally require a CLOSE beyond the puke point to take a trade. Otherwise it might just be a fake out.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Didnt trade much today. Didnt like the overnight action, didnt like the pace of the tape early on....and I didn't much feel like trading anyway....

So I went and got a massage instead....lifestyle modification and stress reduction in full force....

Cheers....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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A single trade today before the cash open. I had a long bias due to homework yesterday. And so I took the long early. It went four ticks my way, stopped at -12 and went down all morning. At every single support area, I kept looking for the long signal. Each one was simply burned through.

Finally after taking out all obvious support levels, it bounced and went straight up. I then waited for the breakout pull back entry. It never came and just powered up without me.

At this point I needed to head for the cardiologist office and took off for the rest of the morning.

When I got back a short was setting up, I took it, went +15 and came back and ended break even. I tried the same trade twice more, both were -10.

The two tick winner was my live account and the two losers were the first two trades of my combine.

Tomorrow I start it in earnest.

No charts today as I am posting from Starbucks on my phone after a nice 30 minute walk... Docs orders.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1550 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Don't push too hard, Panda, health is above any Combine, besides slower and gradually you start longer and better you hold. Just IMO

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  #1551 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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It felt like every single tick was fought to the death over today. Sheesh.....and just when I am to stinkin tired to do it anymore, it breaks out.

I had a couple of shorts this morning early, then the rest were longs, however, nothing seemed to follow through and so most were BE or small losers.

I ended the day up +9 ticks in my live account and -6 ticks in the combine. It moved to fast for me on the last trade and so missed getting the order in for the combine.

I had a long play in mind early, and price eventually went to those target areas but not before violating nearly every swing low, getting rejected multiple times at swing highs.....what an exhausting morning.

Nevertheless, other than the missed trade at the end on the combine, I'm reasonably happy with my performance today. Not in terms of ticks but in terms of how I managed my emotional and mental energy as well as risk. I was completely risk averse this morning, willing to trade but not willing to take larger risks simply due to the fact there was no follow through on most things.

I've reached the end of the maximum period of time I have allotted myself each day to trade. Time to move on to other things.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Got my potential one and done early.

Still looking for a short somewhere though. Might not see it since price seems to be doing opposite of what I expected today.

More later if I take any further trades.


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  #1553 (permalink)
 Gary 
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Got my potential one and done early.

Still looking for a short somewhere though. Might not see it since price seems to be doing opposite of what I expected today.

More later if I take any further trades.


Nice work; looks like we had the same idea:



I had .19-Upper TL as a final target, but wasn't patient enough to wait out the consolidation in the 80's before moving up.

Have a great afternoon,
Gary

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  #1554 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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No more trades.

Its funny how your eye can deceive you. You think you see something but its really not there. I've noticed over the last few weeks how my shorter time frame can convince me a full on short trend is in effect and then you glance at a higher time frame chart and you realize, nope, just a pull back.

Slowly each day, I am feeling better and better. I am not tiring quite as easily now, been sleeping like a baby all night which I never did before. I would always wake up at least once in the night. Gotta say, thats really nice.

Time for some food, then some paperwork related to the hospital stay....I hate that stuff....

Cheers.

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  #1555 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Well it was a complete bust today. The first trade was long into resistance and I had my target a couple of ticks below it. It was about 20-23 ticks away. Enough to justify the trade. It went about 4 ticks my way and failed. I bailed instantly but still lost 10 ticks on it. At that point, I thought, its gonna take out the lows. But I failed to act out of disbelief. I should have acted. It would have been enough to cover the loser and make me enough money to quit for the day.

Then I went into the second guessing phase of the day. V bottoms and tops are not my favorite in any trading environment. I just dont like them. But thats what I got. And so I took the short at the top of the pull back thinking it would take out the lows. I trailed aggressively this time and ended up with 10 ticks. The only winner of the day.

The rest were attempts to get a feel for direction and see if one would run out.

Trouble is, when I see a huge opening range like today, it almost always spells trouble for me in terms of how I like to trade. A 50 tick opening range seems to signal a range bound day and so far, thats what we are seeing. I don't know how to trade that way or at least how to see it in real time. Combine this with a narrow overnight range and I am in trouble.

I need to work on responding to these kinds of scenarios. Either dont trade or learn how to trade it. Reduce targets and stick with the set ups. This could work I suppose, change the way I see structure? If I do that, do I run the risk of losing what I have? I am a somewhat linear thinker. Unfortunately I tend to see things one way at a time. I am getting better at holding two opposing ideas in my head but acting on it does give me trouble.

Something to think about.


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 PandaWarrior 
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Oh man, can crude be a beast or what? I'm looking at the daily chart thinking its time to rollover and play dead. Looking for it all day but it wont roll over. In fact, it keeps looking like its gonna go up again. Higher highs and higher lows and all that business. So some losers, a few break evens, including a couple that had at least 15+ ticks and one that was +31 ticks....all added up to a really frustrating day....still expecting it to fail and roll over though....and if it did, to really take a dive quickly.

After the frustration levels reached their peak, I decided to talk to @Gary on the phone. Talked for about an hour....and as we're talking, price broke through the lower support levels, and I jumped on it. Rode it for 57 ticks. Enough to take care of the crap from earlier and make a decent profit as well. I had a secondary target I was holding for once it broke through the first target level but it came back and hit my trail. Of course it went straight to the secondary target right away for another 25 ticks or so.....but it was already past my first target, was willing to give the second one a chance but not a lot of room so those are the choices we make and live with.

Red line is the trail....there was a lot of room between the price and trend line, was not willing to let it come back all the way to the trend line.


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  #1557 (permalink)
 trippenlatin 
Houston, Tx
 
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good trading

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  #1558 (permalink)
 tderrick 
Nashville, Tennessee
 
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What up, my friend ?

When you "jump on" a break of a range, do you keep a tight stop?

What is your defense on "fake out's"

I can't tell you how much money I have left on the table by "waiting for the PB" that. sometimes
never really comes. Then, when price is about 2/3's to an intended target, it's the old, "don't chase" or
"too late to the party" gag.....

I have been starting to look at order flow and find that if no serious selling comes in
at the break out, the move is fairly safe.

Someday I will be brave.

Entering on extreme trends in my demon.

..... I hope all is well with you buddy


AJ
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  #1559 (permalink)
 rubyslippage 
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tderrick View Post
When you "jump on" a break of a range, do you keep a tight stop?

What is your defense on "fake out's"

I can't tell you how much money I have left on the table by "waiting for the PB" that. sometimes
never really comes. Then, when price is about 2/3's to an intended target, it's the old, "don't chase" or
"too late to the party" gag.....

What I do with CL once a trend line breaks is gauge the strength of the break, then watch the initial pullback. If there's a S/R level to "catch" the break, such as the round number (93.00) Friday, I'd expect price to pull back to the trend line breakout level (93.10-ish).

You can immediately place a sell stop below 93.00 in case there's no significant pullback.

If price pulls back to the breakout level, you can enter there with a limit order, or trail a sell stop below the low of the pullback bars on a small time frame (1-min or 70-tick chart).

My defense on fake outs is to use a small stop, usually 10 ticks for straight up breakouts.

With symmetrical triangles around a flat 20EMA (like Friday's pre-break formation), the initial breakout almost always revisits the trend line break, so better to play it safe and get in on a second entry after evaluating the reaction.

I prefer the trailing stop trade entries to the anticipatory limit entries because I like the market to grab my hand and take me along as all the counter-trend traders' stops get triggered to market.

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  #1560 (permalink)
 rubyslippage 
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One more thing, if price is trending hard (making new highs or low on the day) without you, you can use the same "trail a sell stop below the low of the pullback bars on a small time frame (1-min or 70-tick chart)" method to get in on the trend mid-stream. So Friday, after the LTL breakout you would, for example use a 1-min chart to enter a new short or add to a winner during the 11:31, 11:35 or 11:39 eastern time bars. This is one of various methods of entering a strong trend, the other common one being to simply place a buy or sell stop a tick or two outside the last new HOD or LOD that printed.

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  #1561 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
What up, my friend ?

When you "jump on" a break of a range, do you keep a tight stop?

What is your defense on "fake out's"

I can't tell you how much money I have left on the table by "waiting for the PB" that. sometimes
never really comes. Then, when price is about 2/3's to an intended target, it's the old, "don't chase" or
"too late to the party" gag.....

I have been starting to look at order flow and find that if no serious selling comes in
at the break out, the move is fairly safe.

Someday I will be brave.

Entering on extreme trends in my demon.

..... I hope all is well with you buddy

Hola amigo!

I sometimes wait for the pullback, I prefer it actually but about 20-30% of the time, you don't get one it seems. So depending on how big the stop needs to be, I'll take the first break out move. Also, I often wait for the break of the break...sort of a confirmation type thing. If it breaks out and closes beyond my levels, I will many times take the break of the break....BOB for short. If BOB doesn't happen, then I usually get a pull back to work with.

As far as stops go, I don't believe in fixed stops. You need to hide them behind structure....and often times the structure you need to hide behind is two swings back, not one. At lot of times, the most recent swing will end up being an Al Brooks one tick wonder. You place your stop there, price comes and violates that swing by a single tick and off to the target it goes....so either put it further away or wait for the pull back one tick wonder to happen.....if you do that, you can miss the trade so its a catch 22 you must figure out how to live with.

I still haven't figured out how you KNOW where the extremes are. Just when I think it can't go any further, bang, off it goes....so I gave up trying to figure out where to take that counter trend trade.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1562 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Great discussion. I too can relate with it. I trade brakes and rejection based on orderflow but leaning on the microstructure and bail as soon momentum fades trying to get a break even on most fake outs.

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 PandaWarrior 
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I missed the opening run. I had no plan in mind for longs. I was thinking about it but had not fully formulated a target zone for any break out and so passed on the trade. The target zone would have been Thursday's HOD, as it turns out, price turned back 10 ticks shy of that number and I would have trailed out with a decent enough trade anyway. But I didn't see it in time to make that decision. It would have been one and done.

Instead, its two and done for the day. Waiting for my patterns to appear. Entering, holding to the target zones....patience, patience, patience. It pays off.

There's probably more available today, but I'm done.


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  #1564 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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I just noticed my thread just passed 100,000 views. And without me posting 30 times a day or calling tops and bottoms or teaching anything......Who knew????

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  #1565 (permalink)
 gtichauer 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I just noticed my thread just passed 100,000 views. And without me posting 30 times a day or calling tops and bottoms or teaching anything......Who knew????

Congrats....!!!! Reward for a realistic journal, from a hard working developing trader sharing his road to simplicity.....price and structure understanding, discipline, and consistency.

Keep the hard work and as far as u r making money, keep doing the same and improving what is working for u...

GT
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 PandaWarrior 
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3 stops in a row, time to stop. Missed the big move but no room left in my daily stop limit...so no trade. Bummer. You can't believe how hard I thought about taking that trade. I knew it was going to be a good one after all the failures long. But in the end, logic and reason won out. The daily stop is there for a reason and if I violate it this once, then next time it will be easier and it could just as easily be another loser. I don't care about the number of stop outs. I do care about the dollars. So it could be ten stops in a row and as long as my daily limit isn't reached. No worries. Today, I screwed up. I missed the run up by a few ticks and instead of chasing early, I chased late which is even worse.

No more trading related activities today.


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 xelaar 
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PandaWarrior View Post
3 stops in a row, time to stop. Missed the big move but no room left in my daily stop limit...so no trade. Bummer. You can't believe how hard I thought about taking that trade. I knew it was going to be a good one after all the failures long. But in the end, logic and reason won out. The daily stop is there for a reason and if I violate it this once, then next time it will be easier and it could just as easily be another loser. I don't care about the number of stop outs. I do care about the dollars. So it could be ten stops in a row and as long as my daily limit isn't reached. No worries. Today, I screwed up. I missed the run up by a few ticks and instead of chasing early, I chased late which is even worse.

No more trading related activities today.


Good job recognizing it, Panda! Stop out is also there for a reason to understand you have a limit in a number of attempts so you filter out any setups you are not sure about so you still have the ammo when you see the target.

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  #1568 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Our job is to make money but more importantly, keep it. I THINK I am one and done today. Left a lot of money on the table but the chart annotations explain why.

I have lots to do today, so thinking this might be it. Gonna watch for another 30 minutes or so and see if anything juicy turns up. Otherwise its on to other things.


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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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So I stepped away for a while, came back and saw there might be more short opportunities and decided to try for more.

Had a couple of small stops, a small winner, then the news and then a decent winner.....


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1570 (permalink)
 VinceVirgil 
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I was looking at your charts from when you started this thread back in 2011, and I was looking at the indicators. Your chart is significantly different today from back then.

Interesting to see the changes. But that was over 100,000 views ago.

Congratulations. That's a wicked amount of views.

VV

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 syxforex 
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Very cool, where do you see the view count? Over 100,000 served!

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  #1572 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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VinceVirgil View Post
I was looking at your charts from when you started this thread back in 2011, and I was looking at the indicators. Your chart is significantly different today from back then.

Interesting to see the changes. But that was over 100,000 views ago.

Congratulations. That's a wicked amount of views.

VV

I read my entire thread over the weekend.....I was amazed by the same thing.....

Thanks for the kind words.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 PandaWarrior 
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syxforex View Post
Very cool, where do you see the view count? Over 100,000 served!


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1574 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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syxforex View Post
Very cool, where do you see the view count? Over 100,000 served!

Top of every thread when you read it has summary info on views, plus clickable links for repliers in thread, attachments, etc



Mike

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  #1575 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Another break even week. Frustrating to say the least...better than losing I suppose but still.....

I haven't posted in a couple of days for a few reasons....1. My dad is back in the hospital with some serious kidney stones. One of them is 8 millimeters and the other 14 millimeters....essentially marble sized stones.....surgery today, recovery next couple of days. 2. I've been doing some minor "coaching" for a couple other traders. Maybe coaching is the wrong word...discussing trading, some life issues, etc....I enjoy it, I've been through the coaching process before, it was good for me and I've often thought about doing something like this on a more formal basis for money....haven't really crossed that bridge yet but I do enjoy it immensely.

This weekend, I had the opportunity to attend a "motivational" seminar by Tony Robbin's former national sales trainer. The event was small so the presentation was pretty intimate. Basically it was a "how to find your passion, what you need to do to change your life" type presentation. We've all been to these and essentially I had planned on not going, but a friend of mine said I should go and my wife thought I should go as well so I went. I got in for free due to a relationship I have with one of the presenters so thats always good.

The presenter had us do a mission statement, write down limiting beliefs, etc....all standard motivational seminar type stuff. Good but not earth shattering. However, as I was writing this stuff down, I realized the one thing that could change my life for the better with regards to trading was this.....more patience. I've gotten better at not over trading....however, looking back over the last few weeks, I've come to realize something, I'm trading to much. Not picking my locations as well as I might. And once in the trade, I've become more and more impatient for some reason to have the trade run its course.

So in the section where the speaker asked us to write down the actions we needed to take immediately to change our live's, I wrote this: "My action I must take immediately is this; focus on taking LESS action."In trading, more action does not equal more and better results. In fact, the opposite is often true. More action often leads to fewer and worse results. So my action list reads; Take no action until action is demanded by the chart. Once action is taken, take no further action until it is once again demanded by the chart. The reason for this? I realized I am an instant gratification person. I want results right now. I get bogged down in the noise of the day and don't often see the bigger picture until its too late.

This hits home for me because over the last few weeks, I've often seen my ideas in terms of trade targets play out only to have either lost money or made a fraction of what was available within the context of that trade idea.

I did some market replay last weekend. First time in a long time I've done this: I essentially wanted to see if I went with my initial trade idea and just let it play out, trailing stops behind obvious swings, how would it have looked? The result was really mind blowing. Substantially more than I've made in a week before. So I tried it this last week and emotionally was unable to even really get started on it. In fact, the plan I came up with over the weekend was forgotten by the first trade on Monday. I revisited it on Monday afternoon promising to try again on Tuesday....once again, failure almost immediately. And so it went through the week.

My impatience is the reason I think for this failure. I'm not willing it seems as Jim Rogers says to, " Wait until I see money lying in the corner and just go pick it up".

Next week, my trading plan will basically revolve around two things, wait to trade and wait to get paid....as @Gary says in his signature line. No more than 3 or 4 trades per day, pick targets based on structure and projections and let the trades play out.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1576 (permalink)
 rubyslippage 
Phoenix, AZ
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
My impatience is the reason I think for this failure. I'm not willing it seems as Jim Rogers says to, " Wait until I see money lying in the corner and just go pick it up".

Next week, my trading plan will basically revolve around two things, wait to trade and wait to get paid....as @Gary says in his signature line. No more than 3 or 4 trades per day, pick targets based on structure and projections and let the trades play out.

Cheers.

I think our impatience as day traders comes from the disconnect between testing ideas and then applying the resulting trade plan in real time. When testing (whether via computer-based backtesting, scrolling through a static chart, or running a market replay), we get fast results. When I do a statistical analysis of a trade idea, I can scroll through a static chart for a full day's session and collect the data well under an hour. When I tested market replay with Ninja, I think I was trading at 4x speed.

Then suddenly we're sitting at the hard right edge and it's totally different. It might take 5 minutes for a juicy setup to appear, it might take 45 minutes, it might only happen once or twice all day.

During testing we can know in seconds whether or not a trade reached target or stopped out. In real time price might inch its way to target, bouncing between "green" and "red" for what seems like an eternity before finally breaking solidly our way. This leads to impatience and over trading.

I recall so many times where I impatiently closed a trade break even, only to re-enter at a worse price, close again b/e, re-enter, and so on until I had 4 or 5 one-tick profits as price slowly traveled from my entry to my intended target.

Studying Bob Volman, Lance Beggs, or Al Brooks (with the help of an interpreter, lol), gives insight into the concepts of "double pressure", and "trapped traders". These are those price patterns where if price then does A, move B is likely to be fast and powerful. Learning to ignore the mediocre stuff and patiently wait for these setups is difficult but immensely rewarding.

Another thing helpful to me was to literally program myself to fear that feeling of "fear of missing out" (FOMO). That feeling for me is like a poisonous snake; I instinctively pull my hand away from the mouse when I experience it. Trades I've put on in reaction to fear of missing out on a move, whether it's based on chasing into a terrible entry price because I hesitated to enter properly, or jumping the gun and getting in before a valid signal appears, have very negative expectancy for me. As a very experienced trader once told me, "No worries, another boat will come along."

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  #1577 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Nothing beats real time and real money to test your ability......



rubyslippage View Post
I think our impatience as day traders comes from the disconnect between testing ideas and then applying the resulting trade plan in real time. When testing (whether via computer-based backtesting, scrolling through a static chart, or running a market replay), we get fast results. When I do a statistical analysis of a trade idea, I can scroll through a static chart for a full day's session and collect the data well under an hour. When I tested market replay with Ninja, I think I was trading at 4x speed.

Then suddenly we're sitting at the hard right edge and it's totally different. It might take 5 minutes for a juicy setup to appear, it might take 45 minutes, it might only happen once or twice all day.

During testing we can know in seconds whether or not a trade reached target or stopped out. In real time price might inch its way to target, bouncing between "green" and "red" for what seems like an eternity before finally breaking solidly our way. This leads to impatience and over trading.

I recall so many times where I impatiently closed a trade break even, only to re-enter at a worse price, close again b/e, re-enter, and so on until I had 4 or 5 one-tick profits as price slowly traveled from my entry to my intended target.

Studying Bob Volman, Lance Beggs, or Al Brooks (with the help of an interpreter, lol), gives insight into the concepts of "double pressure", and "trapped traders". These are those price patterns where if price then does A, move B is likely to be fast and powerful. Learning to ignore the mediocre stuff and patiently wait for these setups is difficult but immensely rewarding.

Another thing helpful to me was to literally program myself to fear that feeling of "fear of missing out" (FOMO). That feeling for me is like a poisonous snake; I instinctively pull my hand away from the mouse when I experience it. Trades I've put on in reaction to fear of missing out on a move, whether it's based on chasing into a terrible entry price because I hesitated to enter properly, or jumping the gun and getting in before a valid signal appears, have very negative expectancy for me. As a very experienced trader once told me, "No worries, another boat will come along."


Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 Gary 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Another break even week. Frustrating to say the least...better than losing I suppose but still.....

I haven't posted in a couple of days for a few reasons....1. My dad is back in the hospital with some serious kidney stones. One of them is 8 millimeters and the other 14 millimeters....essentially marble sized stones.....surgery today, recovery next couple of days. 2. I've been doing some minor "coaching" for a couple other traders. Maybe coaching is the wrong word...discussing trading, some life issues, etc....I enjoy it, I've been through the coaching process before, it was good for me and I've often thought about doing something like this on a more formal basis for money....haven't really crossed that bridge yet but I do enjoy it immensely.

This weekend, I had the opportunity to attend a "motivational" seminar by Tony Robbin's former national sales trainer. The event was small so the presentation was pretty intimate. Basically it was a "how to find your passion, what you need to do to change your life" type presentation. We've all been to these and essentially I had planned on not going, but a friend of mine said I should go and my wife thought I should go as well so I went. I got in for free due to a relationship I have with one of the presenters so thats always good.

The presenter had us do a mission statement, write down limiting beliefs, etc....all standard motivational seminar type stuff. Good but not earth shattering. However, as I was writing this stuff down, I realized the one thing that could change my life for the better with regards to trading was this.....more patience. I've gotten better at not over trading....however, looking back over the last few weeks, I've come to realize something, I'm trading to much. Not picking my locations as well as I might. And once in the trade, I've become more and more impatient for some reason to have the trade run its course.

So in the section where the speaker asked us to write down the actions we needed to take immediately to change our live's, I wrote this: "My action I must take immediately is this; focus on taking LESS action."In trading, more action does not equal more and better results. In fact, the opposite is often true. More action often leads to fewer and worse results. So my action list reads; Take no action until action is demanded by the chart. Once action is taken, take no further action until it is once again demanded by the chart. The reason for this? I realized I am an instant gratification person. I want results right now. I get bogged down in the noise of the day and don't often see the bigger picture until its too late.

This hits home for me because over the last few weeks, I've often seen my ideas in terms of trade targets play out only to have either lost money or made a fraction of what was available within the context of that trade idea.

I did some market replay last weekend. First time in a long time I've done this: I essentially wanted to see if I went with my initial trade idea and just let it play out, trailing stops behind obvious swings, how would it have looked? The result was really mind blowing. Substantially more than I've made in a week before. So I tried it this last week and emotionally was unable to even really get started on it. In fact, the plan I came up with over the weekend was forgotten by the first trade on Monday. I revisited it on Monday afternoon promising to try again on Tuesday....once again, failure almost immediately. And so it went through the week.

My impatience is the reason I think for this failure. I'm not willing it seems as Jim Rogers says to, " Wait until I see money lying in the corner and just go pick it up".

Next week, my trading plan will basically revolve around two things, wait to trade and wait to get paid....as @Gary says in his signature line. No more than 3 or 4 trades per day, pick targets based on structure and projections and let the trades play out.

Cheers.

@PandaWarrior / Brian,

A lot of good stuff in this post; nice job!

I know you do enjoy and will enjoy the coaching thing, possibly even formally, but don't forget to put a fair value on your time as well. That is something which, at times, was not easy for me.

How do you put a value on something you can never have enough of, something which can not be bought or gained thru hard work, and something which you can never really know how much you have left? --- Now, can you have more 'free' time? Sure, but in it's purest form, time is limited, and deserves our thoughts and respect. You can only make a choice every day to take advantage of it, while you have it, be thankful for every minute of it, and hopefully live and learn without regrets as it passes by. Time has a tremendous value to me, and must be treated as such.

I went thru the same thing you did with over trading, and while changing my beliefs on the value of my time, was able to commit to trade only a few hours in the morning. What happened? I ended up with less time in front of my charts, and making the same number of ticks. It required some adjustments, but nothing you can't do with some 'adjustments' to your thinking.

It looks like you have come to another major point in your trading career, the understanding and realization that you CAN wait for your A+ setups, as often or as little as they may come, and take advantage of them when they do. This confidence along with your experience will allow you to spend as little or as much time as you want, and, if I know you, will end in better than expected results.

You mention 2 things which are holding you back from being that 'super trader' you are already picturing in your head:

1) Impatience, which can result in over trading, or really, taking less than your top 1-3 or "slam dunk" setups.
2) Another form of impatience, which is not letting your original idea play out.

You have the experience to know what results will most likely look like if you wait for those top setups, and ultimately, let them play out with the idea that you have in your head at the time you take the trade. Maybe you focus on the first part this week, just waiting for those really nice setups, and getting in, without hesitation, taking note when you are in the zone, and really feeling the difference, the confidence knowing that you are only taking the best setups. Feels great!

Reverse engineer that 'perfect trader' in your head. How many hours a day does he trade? How often do his best setups come? How does he stay in the zone, and remain focused intra-trade to ensure he lets price tell him when to best exit? How does he no longer feel pressured to enter a trade or exit a trade prematurely? And, maybe more importantly, why is he trading? What does he do with all of his extra time now that he is not trading as much? What new projects, goals, and life experiences are now waiting for him, now that he has a little more time and his eyes are opened to these new opportunities? What new memories will he make with his family/friends because he has reduced or eliminated so much pressure, and has all of this 'new' free time? What does all of this feel like?

BTW, I am glad you noticed! - As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."

I look forward to seeing your results and progress in the near future.

Have a great week,

Gary

As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
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  #1579 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Money makes you stupid.....trade the process and not the money. Aha moment last few days.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1580 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Money makes you stupid.....trade the process and not the money. Aha moment last few days.

Brian,

So true!! My mistakes earlier this week were caused by me thinking to much about how much money I needed to complete my combine.

Robert

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  #1581 (permalink)
 syxforex 
British Columbia
 
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Two questions to ask before every pull of the trigger.. Is this an A+ shot, Am I being patient. Post it notes!

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  #1582 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Been working on why I've experienced draw down in March and April. So I've been doing some work this last week and this weekend. Mostly about stats. @Gary keeps drilling me about what my stats say. MFE, MAE, etc. I have intermittent stats. I keep them then I quit. Then I start again and then I quit.

I'm an idea person, not a detail person. But in this game, the devil's in the details so this last week I decided to pull out some old stats, go back and recreate some recent ones and see what I could learn.

I found out my MFE is around 25 ticks. My MAE is around 12.

I also wanted to see how the large winners contributed to my overall profitablity vs taking a fixed number of ticks per trade and just waiting for that to work out.

Turns out the larger winner attempts cost me money. Not that I didn't have a couple but that I gave up a lot of smaller wins seeking the home run. Essentially I was trying to trail my stops instead of taking the fixed target. Trouble was this, I didn't let the trades run near long enough and I took a lot of little stops. This is NOT the way a trend trader trades. I have always said I was a trend trader. Well as it turns out, I don't act like one at all. I try to trade with the trend, not always successfully mind you but in terms of following a trend until it's over, I don't do this at all and to be fair, I never have. Patience is not a virtue of mine and patience is what is needed to let the trend play out. It also means being satisfied with lots of tiny stops and tiny winners waiting around for the big wave. I am not content with that. At my current level of skill, I need more and quicker positive feedback than true trend trading gives.

What I did find out though was I have a sweet spot at around 20 or so ticks. Both for the set up and the exit. It seems I can wait for those pretty well. Another thing I found out was this, when I wait for the set ups, I generally win and the losers don't bother me much. When I am impatient or greedy, the losers kill me emotionally and the winners never satisfy.

The constant changing between looking for smaller wins vs looking for larger wins was draining me emotionally. There was internal conflict between what I knew I could do and what I wanted to do. I wanted to post consistent 50+ winners instead of a series of smaller wins. This was ego driven to look good to my readers but also to somehow boost my own sense of accomplishment. For this reason alone I may reduce my posts to once or twice a week to prevent my ego creeping back in wanting to prove how great a trader I am...NOT!

Since I knew I wasn't fulfilling what I wanted to do and more importantly, I knew it was unlikely, my trading became less and less disciplined. I over traded some days and under traded others. If I was up, I was reluctant to take the next trade since I was conflicted over how to manage it and what my expectations were for it. If I was down, I wanted to make it up...there was no rhythm to it. Just pure randomness.

So with the study of the stats, a conversation with a friend and some serious soul searching, I'm hereby declaring my trend following days are officially over. Instead, I intend to identify my trade set ups (usually 3-6 per day) take those for 20 tick fixed targets using a trail stop once price goes my way at least 15 ticks and let it play out. Based on the MAE I discovered, I am reducing my initial stop from 20 down to 15 and I might reduce that further to 10 depending on how this plays out over the next few weeks.

This kind of study is beneficial to do every so often. Its a pain in the neck but had I not done this, I'd still be conflicted about what kind of trader I actually am vs what I thought I was. CL moves enough each day to create several opportunities to profit. I also discovered that I need to actually trade the entire 2.5 hours I say I do.....this gives the max profitability available for my style currently. I did some informal study about what happens to the PnL after this time frame and the long and short of it is there seems to be no obvious benefit to trading longer. Some days of course there is a lot more to be had but many many times its just chop suey after that so the long term expectancy of trading longer hours is about the same as just trading the first couple. I don't have any real stats to back this up since I rarely trade longer than this anyway but just looking at the charts the last couple of months seems to reinforce this thought. There have been some late day runs lately but since I am not catching those runs anyway, its a moot point.

An interesting week coming up for sure....I'm actually looking forward to it.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1583 (permalink)
 podski 
Belgium
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
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Hi PandaWarrior

It will be interesting to say the least to see how this works out for you. I advise you to monitor your own stats a bit better now and don't be blinded please by the Ninjatrader automatic MAE / MFE stats. These stats are indeed useful but they do not measure either your potential nor (and this is most important) your intent.

Let me explain (please allow for me projecting how I feel during a trade sometimes):

Scenario: The intended Swing
You take your first setup of the day, trendline broken or whatever, and after 2-3-4-5 ticks of heat, it goes your way. Phew. Quickly it rings up 6 ticks of profit and then settles into the 9-10 ticks of lovely green. Then comes your first test. It settles for 30 seconds, 1 minute, 1minute an 45 seconds and then ... phew. rattles down to 23 ticks. Relief and pride sparkle though the veins and an itchy right hand index finger hover over the mouse. Either you are fortunate in the next minute or two and you get a proper runner (40 ticks) or you start seeing it coming back. 21, 20, 18, 16, (oh dear), 14, 16, (phew) and then you see 18 and you have had enough. "Order Filled" says the nice lady from the DOM.

The stats for this one say
P/L : 18
MAE: 5
MFE: 23
But ... while you go off and make breakfast for your daughter, wake your wife with a coffee or take a well earned toilet break (they are very nice after a winner I find!!) your initial "swing trade concept" is still working.

@vvhg 's journal template has an interesting extra field he calls "Benchmark". This is the real MFE that you should look at. He defines it as "Maximum favourable excursion under ideal circumstances". In this case the Benchmark MFE can includes what happens after you chickened out of the trade because you didn't want to give back any more ticks.

If you change your stop and target setup be sure to monitor these two things.
  • Benchmark-MFE (ideal profits for intended trade)
  • Benchmark-MAE (ideal stop area for intended trade)

This will help you to see if you made the right decision. The trade above was either one hell of a good scalp or about half of a swing !

p

p.s. Not to say that you chicken out of any trades ... but I sure do !!

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  #1584 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Trading: happy
 
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I lost a great project manager this year. He is alive, but retired after having a heart attack on the job. Too much stress.

My mother was diagnosed with a terminal illness before I was born, They gave her 6 months. She decided, if she was going to die anyway, why not try everything available. She wound up living another 40+ years after thrwoing herslf into hard core holistic therapy.

My physical health seems to be intact, but you know about my financial health issues over the real estate collapse. It caused me to learn, with a lot of difficuluty mind you, to seek happiness over money, laughter over stress.

My stepfather asked me recently how I was doing. I said great, but the motivation was different. I told him "I realized, my only real responsibility is that I have to eat until I die. Everything else is whatever I want it to be".

He laughed, and agreed.

Take care of yourself, be whatever you want.

 
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  #1585 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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GaryD View Post
I lost a great project manager this year. He is alive, but retired after having a heart attack on the job. Too much stress.

My mother was diagnosed with a terminal illness before I was born, They gave her 6 months. She decided, if she was going to die anyway, why not try everything available. She wound up living another 40+ years after thrwoing herslf into hard core holistic therapy.

My physical health seems to be intact, but you know about my financial health issues over the real estate collapse. It caused me to learn, with a lot of difficuluty mind you, to seek happiness over money, laughter over stress.

My stepfather asked me recently how I was doing. I said great, but the motivation was different. I told him "I realized, my only real responsibility is that I have to eat until I die. Everything else is whatever I want it to be".

He laughed, and agreed.

Take care of yourself, be whatever you want.

@GaryD, thank you for this. I appreciate it very much.

People over possessions is kinda of how I am looking at things these days and not just because of the health issue. The older I get, the more I trade, the more I see how fragile life is, the more I want to simplify, downsize, reduce, etc....this allows for intensely more enjoyment of people, experiences and emotions as they present themselves.....the old saying holds true, its the journey, not the destination that counts....destination is important to be sure...one must have this in mind but to ignore the journey purely for the sake of the destination is folly.....and if the destination is "riches or wealth" that is a moving target....how much is enough?

I am waxing philosophical now....time to quit...

Thanks again....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1586 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Awesome stuff here , folks!

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  #1587 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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no chart today but +29 ticks trading until just after 8AM. I know there was a huge run after that but so what. I don't chase big runs anymore.

Spent the last 2 1/2 days at the hospital in Phoenix with my brother who's had some serious complications after a minor surgery. Those were some tiring days.....almost no sleep, lots of driving and tons of time to think with no charts around.

The more I thought, the more I like the plan I laid out last week....today I executed perfectly on the plan. Netted 29 ticks after commissions on 5 trades. 1 loser, 2 winners and 2 BE.

No stress, no mess....just the way I like it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1588 (permalink)
 Futures Operator 
New York, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, thinkorswim
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Panda, I just read this study and went through much of the same change in style you did, it seems to reinforce CL likes to be traded that way: Rancho Dinero | Instrument Spotlight ? NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil

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  #1589 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Futures Operator View Post
Panda, I just read this study and went through much of the same change in style you did, it seems to reinforce CL likes to be traded that way: Rancho Dinero | Instrument Spotlight ? NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil

Very interesting...thanks for this.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1590 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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2 BE trades, 2 20 tick winners. Net +40 ticks after positive slippage on my last exit.

Emotions in check today...not because i forced them to be quiet but because I am confident in the set ups and what they may or may not do. I have reduced my stop to 10 ticks, so far so good. I like it of course but to be fair, it looks really really really close on the chart, thus far, not had to worry about it.

All this has combined to reduce my stress by a factor of probably 90%, its enabled me to wait for the "A" set up as @Gary says and to wait for the trade to play out. The BEs will probably increase but thats because I am not willing to let a 15 tick winner turn into a loss at this point. I rather exit at BE and reenter if I still like the trade ( I did that once today, both were BE) than have a loser after waiting and waiting for the set up and then have it turn into a loser after going 75% of the way toward my target.

Done for the day.

time to eat....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1591 (permalink)
 Traderwolf 
Raleigh,NC
 
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PandaWarrior View Post

All this has combined to reduce my stress by a factor of probably 90%, its enabled me to wait for the "A" set up as @Gary says and to wait for the trade to play out.

time to eat....

@PandaWarrior,

What is your "A" setup versus your other setups? Is it one with a higher win rate? Is it one that is easier to spot? Is it one that gives you a larger target usually? A smaller stop? I am not asking about your precise setup or trading plan, just curious what criteria makes it an "A" versus the other setups?

Thanks,
Wolf

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  #1592 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Traderwolf View Post
@PandaWarrior,

What is your "A" setup versus your other setups? Is it one with a higher win rate? Is it one that is easier to spot? Is it one that gives you a larger target usually? A smaller stop? I am not asking about your precise setup or trading plan, just curious what criteria makes it an "A" versus the other setups?

Thanks,
Wolf

Yes.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1593 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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PandaWarrior View Post
Yes.

It occurred to me that I may have been a bit abrupt here...

So on the second go around, here is the reason the A set up is worth waiting for.
  • Its easier to see in real time
  • It has a positive expectancy
  • I can choose my own stop size
  • Targets are dynamic if I want them to be, or I can take fixed targets which is what I am doing now
  • There is no ambiguity for this set up. It either is or it isn't.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1594 (permalink)
 RickD 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Trading: TF
 
Posts: 6 since Sep 2012
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Hi Panda and Auric,

I had a very similar event as you described Auric -- prolonged artial fib et al. Was very scary and they put me in the hospital for observation for 2 days ( I had never been hospitalized before that, having enjoyed good health -- I was 45). Well that was 13 years ago and thanks to higher sources I haven't had another such occurrance. But it did wake me up to the fact that none of us are immortal and that we should not live our lives as though that were the case. I made some pretty major life changing alterations to my life shortly after all that. And I view trading as only a means to an end: putting bread on my family's table and a roof over their heads. Thank you Panda for reminding us all of this fact -- and my prayers go out to you that you see you little one's 506h birthday and many many more following that.




Auric View Post
Hi Panda,

I too just had a cardiac event a couple of weeks ago, prolonged atrial fib that lasted well over 24 hours with my heart rate ranging from 100-150. I'm 37 and relatively healthy and it put some things in perspective for me.

What put things in even more perspective was that same night a coworker's husband experienced an aortal dissection (age 50). They had to take his heart out to work on him and afterwards he's had some complications but he's lucky to be alive with a 75% morbidity rate.

I hug my kids tighter now so I know where you're coming from. Hope you're well on the road to recovery.


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  #1595 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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+40 ticks today after commissions. 2 losers, a BE and two winners. One +20 and the other +41.

No trades until 45 minutes after the open....I don't think I've ever waited that long to take a trade. There were two possibles before this, both worked but neither were A set ups so I passed.

I also had my live feed disconnect in the middle of a losing trade. I freaked out thinking my stops were local. Called up the broker, sure enough I was already out. My stop worked perfectly....a month ago, I would not have been able to continue trading out of fear, today, different story, just wait for the next one. That was a BE followed my a loser then the winner to get back to even....wait and wait some more, the A set up appears again....this time I think its gonna run, sure enough, it went to my intended target. I exited and then it went through another 20 ticks. The trail out location would have been the same price I exited anyway....

Near perfect execution today. I've only traded three days this week but I've made more money this week than I have the previous month and a half combined.

No charts this weekend.

Cheers.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1596 (permalink)
 Futures Operator 
New York, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, thinkorswim
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Trading: CL, GC, NQ
 
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PandaWarrior View Post
I also had my live feed disconnect in the middle of a losing trade. I freaked out thinking my stops were local. Called up the broker, sure enough I was already out. My stop worked perfectly....a month ago, I would not have been able to continue trading out of fear, today, different story, just wait for the next one.

Which feed are you using to trade CL, do you have server side oco? If local OCO, the stops are working at the exchange, but the cancel functionality is local, so if either stop or target is hit while disconnected, the other won't cancel.


PandaWarrior View Post
Near perfect execution today. I've only traded three days this week but I've made more money this week than I have the previous month and a half combined.

Nice trading!

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  #1597 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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Futures Operator View Post
Which feed are you using to trade CL, do you have server side oco? If local OCO, the stops are working at the exchange, but the cancel functionality is local, so if either stop or target is hit while disconnected, the other won't cancel.
Nice trading!

Its AMP/CQG. They said they have server side OCO which makes sense as the stop executed exactly where it was supposed to even though my machine was offline. Ninja does not reflect that trade in its account summary section but the account balance as well as entry and exit fills match exactly what I think it should be.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #1598 (permalink)
 madLyfe 
Des Moines, Iowa
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja, TOS
Broker: AMP/CQG, TOS
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PandaWarrior View Post
Its AMP/CQG. They said they have server side OCO which makes sense as the stop executed exactly where it was supposed to even though my machine was offline. Ninja does not reflect that trade in its account summary section but the account balance as well as entry and exit fills match exactly what I think it should be.

i also had a discon around 9:50am CST with amp/cqg..

dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see

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  #1599 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
In the heat
 
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madLyfe View Post
i also had a discon around 9:50am CST with amp/cqg..

This has been my very first issue with them since I opened the account.....and they handled it perfectly on the phone. Very fast as they had a lot of calls coming in but still, I got what I wanted very quickly.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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  #1600 (permalink)
 Adamus 
London, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
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PandaWarrior View Post
Its AMP/CQG. They said they have server side OCO which makes sense as the stop executed exactly where it was supposed to even though my machine was offline. Ninja does not reflect that trade in its account summary section but the account balance as well as entry and exit fills match exactly what I think it should be.

in the executions tab in the Ninja control center, you can right-click and Add... to enter the trade. I think it's to let you sort out situations like this manually so that Ninja's account summary & stats won't be affected.

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